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At least 127 records · Page 7

Impacts of long-term temperature change and variability on electricity investments

Long-term temperature change and variability are expected to have significant impacts on future electric capacity and investments. This study improves upon past studies by accounting for hourly and monthly dynamics of electricity use, long-term socioeconomic drivers, and interactions of the electric sector with rest of the economy for a comprehensive analysis of temperature change impacts on cooling and heating services and their corresponding impact on electric capacity and investments. Using the United States as an example, here we show that under a scenario consistent with a socioeconomic pathway 2 (SSP2) and representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP 8.5), mean temperature changes drive increases in annual electricity demands by 0.5-8% across states in 2100. But more importantly, peak temperature changes drive increases in capital investments by 3-22%. Moreover, temperature-induced capital investments are highly sensitive to both long-term socioeconomic assumptions and spatial heterogeneity of fuel prices and capital stock characteristics, which underscores the importance of a comprehensive approach to inform long-term electric sector planning.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Impact of the Annealing Temperature on the Local Se Distribution and Optical Properties in CdSexTe1-x Solar Cells by Multimodal X-ray Microscopy

The introduction of Se in CdTe solar-cell absorbers has led to multiple beneficial effects in the devices, including an increased short-circuit current and an extended charge-carrier lifetime. A critical manufacturing step of CdSexTe1-x solar cells is CdCl2 annealing at high temperatures, during which Se diffuses through the absorber layer. Understanding the local Se distribution in the absorber and its impact on optical properties of the material is key for the further development of this thin-film solar cell technology. In a multimodal x-ray scanning microscopy approach, we investigated the impact of the annealing temperature of CdSexTe1-x solar cells on the Se distribution and on optical characteristics of the material. For this purpose, we exploited an upgraded x-ray excited optical luminescence (XEOL) detection unit that enables simultaneous spectrally and temporally resolved XEOL mapping at synchrotron facilities that are ideal for studying thin-film solar-cell materials with hard x-rays featuring high penetration depth and lateral resolution.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Process-oriented evaluation of quasi-stationary Rossby waves and their impact on surface air temperature extremes in dynamical downscaling over North America

Quasi-stationary Rossby waves are a crucial component of the general circulation and play a significant role in regional water and energy cycles, as well as in extreme events. However, process-oriented evaluation for Rossby waves is rarely performed for dynamical downscaling simulations. To close this gap, we evaluate three classes of dynamical downscaling approaches, with a focus on quasi-stationary Rossby waves and their impact on surface air temperature over North America during Northern Hemisphere summer. The three classes of models differ in the way large-scale forcing is provided: a limited-area model (LAM) constrained only by lateral boundary conditions, represented by RegCM4 from the North American branch of the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (NA-CORDEX), a LAM with spectral nudging to maintain consistency in large-scale dynamics with the forcing data, represented by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulation in NA-CORDEX, and a global variable-resolution model with smoothly varying grid spacings, represented by the Community Atmosphere Model version 5.4, with the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) as its dynamical core (CAM-MPAS). With no constraints on the atmospheric dynamics, CAM-MPAS exhibits several mean biases in the upper-level circulations over the Pacific Coast region: a weaker subtropical jet, a northward-shifted mid-latitude jet, and an overestimated southerly flow. With the lateral boundary constraint alone, RegCM4 also exhibits weaker jets and overestimated southerly winds off the West Coast. Rossby ray theory reveals that those wind biases direct incoming Rossby waves northward. The erroneously routed Rossby waves distort the relationship between the accumulation of wave activity over the US West Coast and surface temperature anomalies over the Southern Great Plains, which emerges approximately 4 d after the convergence of wave-activity flux in the ERA-Interim reanalysis. Furthermore, the response of heatwaves to the extreme wave activity flux is not reproduced by the two models, a serious drawback as a dynamical downscaling framework is expected to connect large-scale forcing to local-scale phenomena. The WRF model employing spectral nudging is largely free from the aforementioned problems. A pair of sensitivity simulations suggests that spectral nudging is the key to improving the dynamics of quasi-stationary Rossby waves and their impact on surface air temperature. Our results also demonstrate the effectiveness of Rossby wave diagnostics that allow for realistic background flows for assessing the credibility of dynamical downscaling over North America, where incoming Rossby waves propagate through complex circulation patterns before traveling across the continent.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Climate Change and Fetal Health: The Impacts of Exposure to Extreme Temperatures in New York City

Background: Climate change is projected to increase the frequency, intensity, and duration of heat waves while reducing cold extremes, yet few studies have examined the relationship between temperature and fetal health. Objectives: We estimate the impacts of extreme temperatures on birth weight and gestational age in Manhattan, a borough in New York City, and explore differences by socioeconomic status (SES). Methods: We combine average daily temperature from 1985 to 2010 with birth certificate data in Manhattan for the same time period. We then generate 33 downscaled climate model time series to project impacts on fetal health. Results: We find exposure to an extra day where average temperature 25 F and 85 F during pregnancy is associated with a 1.8 and 1.7 g (respectively) reduction in birth weight, but the impact varies by SES, particularly for extreme heat, where teen mothers seem most vulnerable. We find no meaningful, significant effect on gestational age. Using projections of temperature from these climate models, we project average net reductions in birth weight in the 2070- 2099 period of 4.6 g in the business-as-usual scenario. Conclusions: Results suggest that increasing heat events from climate change could adversely impact birth weight and vary by SES.

climate change↗

Study of Molecular Line Parameters down to Very Low Temperature

The impact of precise spectroscopic measurements on the P(9) multiplet in the v3 band of 12CH4, obtained using a newly developed cold Herriott cell coupled with a tunable diode laser spectrometer, is examined in the context of remote sensing of methane in the atmosphere. More specifically, the influence of the air-broadening temperature dependence, of line narrowing and of line-mixing effects is assessed when fitting high resolution atmospheric spectra recorded from a balloon in the solar occultation mode. This is achieved by considering residuals and retrieved methane volume mixing ratio profiles. By combining data from previous studies together with new measurements, the expression for the temperature dependence of the broadening coefficient has been revisited. It is shown that a correcting factor applied to the usual law gives better results, when considering all the available measurements from room temperature down to about 10-20 K, as compared to the usual expression of the width versus temperature. These results clearly demonstrate that collision broadening is more sensitive to long-range attractive forces when the temperature is decreased.

Mondelain, D.↗

Technology trends in high temperature pressure transducers: The impact of micromachining

This paper discusses the implications of micromachining technology on the development of high temperature pressure transducers. The introduction puts forth the thesis that micromachining will be the technology of choice for the next generation of extended temperature range pressure transducers. The term micromachining is defined, the technology is discussed and examples are presented. Several technologies for high temperature pressure transducers are discussed, including silicon on insulator, capacitive, optical, and vibrating element. Specific conclusions are presented along with recommendations for development of the technology.

Mallon, Joseph R., Jr.↗

A valuation framework for customers impacted by extreme temperature-related outages

Extreme temperature outages can lead to not just economic losses but also various non-energy impacts (NEI), such as increased mortality rates, property damage, and reduced productivity, due to significant degradation of indoor operating conditions caused by service disruptions. However, existing resilience assessment approaches lack specificity for extreme temperature conditions. They often overlook temperature-related mortality and neglect the customer characteristics and grid response in the calculation, despite the significant influence of these factors on NEI-related economic losses. This paper aims to address these gaps by introducing a comprehensive framework to estimate the impact of resilience enhancement not only on the direct economic losses incurred by customers but also on potential NEI, including mortality and the value of statistical life during extreme temperature-related outages. The proposed resilience valuation integrates customer characteristics and grid response variables based on a scalable grid simulation environment. This study adopts a holistic approach to quantify customer-oriented economic impacts, utilizing probabilistic loss scenarios that incorporate health-related factors and damage/loss models as a function of exposure for valuation. The proposed methodology is demonstrated through comparative resilient outage planning, using grid response models emulating a Texas weather zone during the 2021 winter storm Uri. The case study results show that enhanced outage planning with hardened infrastructure can improve the system resilience and thereby reduce the relative risk of mortality by 16% and save the total costs related to non-energy impacts by 74%. In conclusion, these findings underscore the efficacy of the framework by assessing the financial implications of each case, providing valuable insights for decision-makers and stakeholders involved in extreme-weather related resilience planning for risk management and mitigation strategies.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Sea surface temperature from satellites: The impact of FGGE

Spacecraft instruments first launched at the beginning of the FGGE year are now producing sea surface temperature data accurate to about 1 C. At larger scales, the errors are dominated by systematic effects, some of which are instrumental, but most are geophysical, i.e., correlated with volcanic aerosols, atmospheric water vapor, clouds, and surface wind. Progress is being made to identify and eliminate such errors and thereby provide sea surface temperature data on a global basis consistently accurate to 0.5 C, which will be needed for studies of climate variability.

Bernstein, R. L.↗

Multi-Decadal Surface Water Dynamics in North American Tundra

Over the last several decades, warming in the Arctic has outpaced the already impressive increases in global mean temperatures. The impact of these increases in temperature has been observed in a multitude of ecological changes in North American tundra including changes in vegetative cover, depth of active layer, and surface water extent. The low topographic relief and continuous permafrost create an ideal environment for the formation of small water bodies - a definitive feature of tundra surface. In this study, water bodies in Nunavut territory in northern Canada were mapped using a long-term record of remotely sensed observations at 30 meters spatial resolution from the Landsat suite of instruments. The temporal trajectories of water extent between 1985 and 2015 were assessed. Over 675,000 water bodies have been identified over the 31-year study period with over 168,000 showing a significant (probability is less than 0.05) trend in surface area. Approximately 55 percent of water bodies with a significant trend were increasing in size while the remaining 45 percent were decreasing in size. The overall net trend for water bodies with a significant trend is 0.009 hectares per year per water body.

Carroll, Mark L.↗

Causes and Effects of AIRS Optics Temperature Cycles

In addition to the expected orbital thermal cycle, geophysical conditions with high thermal and reflected upwelling infrared (IR) drive measurable changes in the AIRS instrument with a period of 24 hours. Especially hot and bright scenes are important, with about 30% of the variability driven by thermal IR and 70% by reflected IR. We show how these cycles manifest in the instrument telemetry for temperatures and gain and with careful analysis can even be detected in spectral shifts.Thermal cycles are an unavoidable feature of instruments observing upwelling radiances from Earth, because the signal inherently carries varying amounts of energy into the instrument. Temperature control of the optical bench, on-board calibrator blackbody, and Focal Plane Array (FPA) in AIRS reduce the impacts of temperature variability to extremely small levels. This combined with good on-board telemetry of the temperatures and including temperature variability in our calibration algorithm has resulted in an instrument that achieves ‘climate quality’ measurements. Careful instrument and algorithm design allows us to characterize and document the impact of temperature variability and limit the effects to negligible levels, helping the instrument meet important climate-quality criteria specified in Ohring 2005

Overoye, Kenneth↗

Photodissociation in the atmosphere of Mars - Impact of high resolution, temperature-dependent CO2 cross-section measurements

We have investigated the impact of high resolution, temperature-dependent CO2 cross-section measurements, reported by Lewis and Carver (1983), on calculations of photodissociation rate coefficients in the Martian atmosphere. We find that the adoption of 50 A intervals for the purpose of computational efficiency results in errors in the calculated values for photodissociation of CO2, H2O, and O2 which are generally not above 10 percent, but as large as 20 percent in some instances. These are acceptably small errors, especially considering the uncertainties introduced by the large temperature dependence of the CO2 cross section. The inclusion of temperature-dependent CO2 cross sections is shown to lead to a decrease in the diurnally averaged rate of CO2 photodissociation as large as 33 percent at some altitudes, and increases of as much as 950 percent and 80 percent in the photodissociation rate coefficients of H2O and O2, respectively. The actual magnitude of the changes depends on the assumptions used to model the CO2 absorption spectrum at temperatures lower than the available measurements, and at wavelengths longward of 1970 A.

Anbar, A. D.↗

TEMPERATURE CONSTRAINT OF THE MISTASTIN LAKE IMPACT STRUCTURE IMPACT MELT ROCKS

Impact melt is a product of hypervelocity cratering events formed by the instantaneous melting of near-surface target rocks. The temperatures of impact melt upon formation are believed to be superheated, vastly exceeding the liquidus temperature of igneous rocks formed via endogenic processes. However, quantitative understanding of the formation and duration of superheated temperatures remains incomplete. To date, only one datum on the hottest post-shock temperature (>2370 °C) has been derived by Timms et al. (2017) [1]. These authors studied the microstructures and crystallographic orientations preserved within a rim of vermicular ZrO2 of a zircon grain entrained within impact glass at the Mistastin Lake impact structure, Canada. Diagnostic crystallographic orientation indicated the presence of cubic zirconia, requiring a minimum temperature for the impact melt of >2370°C from the dissociation of zircon to cubic zirconia and liquid SiO2. With only one temperature datum, it cannot be stated whether the temperature of the impact melt sheet was homogenous across the entire structure or if the thermal history of the melt varied with spatial distribution. In this study, we present a preliminary investigation of 70 zircon grains, 22 of which exhibit rims of vermicular ZrO2 dissociation textures, similar to those studied by Timms et al. (2017). To acquire a more accurate temperature profile representative of impact melt, zircon crystals were collected from different types of impact melt bearing units, including additional samples of the impact glass studied by Timms et al. (2017). Of the 22 zircon grains with dissociation textures, at least 4 grains in the impact glass show diagnostic evidence of pre-existing cubic zirconia, and 1 grain from a glass-bearing breccia exhibits granular zircon textures, possible evidence of a transition from high-P to high-T conditions. These results show the heterogeneous post-shock temperature distribution of superheated impact melt within the Mistastin impact structure. [1] Timms, N.E., Erickson, T.M., Zanetti, M.R., Pearce, M.A., Cayron, C., Cavosie, A.J., Reddy, S.M., Wittmann, A. and Carpenter, P.K., 2017. Cubic zirconia in> 2370° C impact melt records Earth's hottest crust. Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 477, pp.52-58.

rock↗

Evaluating Lithium-Lead Mixtures for Increased Tritium Breeding in Fusion Energy Blanket Systems: Exploring the Impact of Composition and Temperature

This project investigates hypo- and hyper-eutectic liquid lithium-lead (PbLi) mixtures as a coolant in fusion blanket systems, with a focus on testing the compatibility of compositions with better tritium breeding ratios (TBR). The 12-month study concentrates on static corrosion experiments, comparing silicon carbide (SiC) corrosion rates in Li-rich and eutectic Li-Pb mixtures, and examining interactions between Mo and PbLi. The research seeks to determine the maximum operating temperatures for this material combination, acknowledging the balance between Li-Pb melting temperature and achievable TBR to unlock new opportunities for blanket design. This work lays the groundwork for future collaboration between Kyoto Fusioneering and Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). Findings could enhance the TBR of fusion blanket designs, and impact fusion energy development by confirming material compatibility between different Li-Pb mixtures with SiC and Mo at higher temperatures, including at temperatures relevant for very high-temperature blankets (1,000 °C), which could enable higher electricity conversion efficiencies and commercial applications using process heat.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Quantitative Estimation of the Impact of European Teleconnections on Interannual Variation of East Asian Winter Temperature and Monsoon

The impact of European teleconnections including the East AtlanticWest Russia (EA-WR), the Scandinavia (SCA), and the East Atlantic (EA) on East Asian winter temperature variability was quantified and compared with the combined effect of the Arctic Oscillation (AO), the Western Pacific (WP), and the El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which are originated in the Northern Hemispheric high-latitudes or the Pacific. Three European teleconnections explained 22-25 percent of the total monthly upper-tropospheric height variance over Eurasia. Regression analysis revealed warming by EA-WR and EA and cooling by SCA over mid-latitude East Asia during their positive phase and vice versa. Temperature anomalies were largely explained by the advective temperature change process at the lower troposphere. The average spatial correlation over East Asia (90-180E, 10-80N) for the last 34 winters between observed and reconstructed temperature comprised of AO, WP and ENSO effect (AWE) was approximately 0.55, and adding the European teleconnection components (ESE) to the reconstructed temperature improved the correlation up to approximately 0.64. Lower level atmospheric structure demonstrated that approximately five of the last 34 winters were significantly better explained by ESE than AWE to determine East Asian seasonal winter temperatures. We also compared the impact between EA-WR and AO on the 1) East Asian winter monsoon, 2) cold surge, and 3) the Siberian high. These three were strongly coupled, and their spatial features and interannual variation were somewhat better explained by EA-WR than AO. Results suggest that the EA-WR impact must be treated more importantly than previously thought for a better understanding of East Asian winter temperature and monsoon variability.

East Asian Winter Monsoon↗

Impacts of Assimilating MLS Temperature on the Upper Stratosphere in GEOS-5

Standard configurations of the GEOS-5 data assimilation system use nadir infrared and microwave sounders that provide deep-layer constraints on the thermal structure in the stratosphere. In the upper stratosphere, this information is currently provided by the Advanced Microwave Sounding Units (AMSU-As) on NOAA s polar-orbiting satellites. The highest peaking AMSU-A channel (14) peaks near 2.5hPa. Evaluation of the upper stratosphere reveals substantial biases in the temperature, cased in part by biases in the underlying GCM, and difficulties in representing the stratopause structure under disturbed conditions. This work demonstrates, unsurprisingly, that the assimilation into GEOS-5 of temperature profiles derived from EOS-Aura MLS leads to a substantially better representation of the stratopause structure from a climatological perspective and for disturbed events. Future plans with GEOS-5 include a reanalysis that includes numerous "research" datasets alongside the operational NOAA datasets that were used in MERRA. As preparation for this reanalysis, the present study examines how assimilating the MLS observations impact the error statistics for the AMSU-A instruments. Discussion will address the issue of bias correction for the AMSU-A Channel 14 radiances, which is presently turned off in GEOS-5 because of the absence of accurate temperature observations that can anchor the GEOS-5 analyses. The issue of what can be done in periods when no limb-sounder data are available will also be addressed.

Pawson, S.↗

Investigating the Effects of Temperature on the Signatures of Shocks Propagated Through Impacts into Minerals Found in Comets and Asteroids

Comets and asteroids are subjected to extremely cold conditions throughout their lifetimes. During their sojourns in the solar system, they are subjected to collisions at speeds that are easily capable of generating shock waves in their constituent materials. In addition to ices, more common silicate minerals such as olivines and pyroxenes are important components of these objects. The collision-induced shocks could affect the spectral signatures of those mineral components, which could in turn be detected telescopically. We have embarked on a project to determine how impact-generated shock might affect the reflectance spectra and structures of select silicates as both impact speed and target temperature are varied systematically. While the effects of impact speed (in the form of shock stress) on numerous materials have been and continue to be studied, the role of target temperature has received comparatively little attention, presumably because of the operational difficulties it can introduce to experimentation. Our experiments were performed with the vertical gun in the Experimental Impact Laboratory of the Johnson Space Center. A liquid-nitrogen system was plumbed to permit cooling of the target container and its contents under vacuum to temperatures as low as -100 C (173 K). Temperatures were monitored by thermocouples mounted on the outside of the target container. Because those sensors were not in contact with the target material at impact, the measured temperatures are treated as lower limits for the actual values. Peridot (Mg-rich olivine) and enstatite (Mg-rich orthopyroxene) were used as targets, which involved the impact of alumina (Al2O3) spheres at speeds of 2.0 - 2.7 km s(exp -1) and temperatures covering 25 C to -100 C (298 K to 173 K). We have begun collecting and analyzing data in the near to mid-IR with a Fourier-transform infrared spectrometer, and preliminary analyses show that notable differences in absorption-band strength and position occur as functions of both impact speed (peak shock stress) and initial temperature.

Lederer, Susan M.↗

Impact of solar geoengineering on temperature-attributable mortality

Decisions about solar geoengineering (SG) entail risk–risk tradeoffs between the direct risks of SG and SG’s ability to reduce climate risks. Quantitative comparisons between these risks are needed to inform public policy. We evaluate idealized SG’s effectiveness in reducing deaths from warming using two climate models and an econometric analysis of temperature-attributable mortality. We find SG’s impact on temperature-attributable mortality is uneven with decreases for hotter, poorer regions and increases in cooler, richer regions. Relative to no SG, global mortality is reduced by over 400,000 deaths annually [90% CI: (−1.2 million,2.7 million)] for cooling of 1 °C from 2.5 °C above preindustrial in 2080. We find no evidence that mortality reduction achieved by SG is smaller than the reduction from equivalent cooling by emissions reductions. Combining our estimates with existing estimates of sulphate aerosol injection direct mortality risk from air quality and UV-attributable cancer enables the first quantitative risk-risk comparison of SG. We estimate with 61% probability that the mortality benefits of cooling outweigh these direct SG risks. We find the benefits outweigh these risks by 13 times for our central estimates, or 4 deaths per 100,000 per 1 °C per year [90% CI: (−11,23)]. This is not a comprehensive evaluation of the risk–risk tradeoffs around SG, yet by comparing some of the most consequential impacts on human welfare it is a useful first step. While these findings are robust to a variety of alternative assumptions, considerable uncertainties remain and require further investigation.

Harding, Anthony (ORCID:0000000262898253)↗

Moist Energy Constraints on Surface Temperature Variance Under Climate Warming

Understanding the factors controlling surface temperature variance is crucial for predicting temperature extremes. Previous investigations have examined individual impacts of temperature advection and surface turbulent fluxes on temperature fluctuations. Here, we explore the constraints on temperature variance from the moist static energy (MSE) balance and introduce a new scaling relation that connects the generation of temperature variance through moist energy transport with its dissipation due to the net energetic forcing of the atmosphere. This theory is evaluated in an idealized aquaplanet model. We find that surface temperature variance is influenced by eddy (sensible) heat flux, MSE gradient, and the Clausius‐Clapeyron relation for evaporative cooling. Under global warming, the reduced temperature variance in the aquaplanet model is dominated by the weakening in eddy heat flux, but it is also affected by changes in evaporative cooling and MSE gradient, which may be more important in realistic, moisture‐limited regions over land.

Eddy heat flux↗