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At least 127 records · Page 7

An Ocean-Atmosphere Simulation for Studying Air-Sea Interactions

During the past few years the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) and Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) modeling groups have produced, respectively, global atmosphere-only and ocean-only simulations with km-scale grid spacing. These simulations have proved invaluable for process studies and for the development of satellite and in-situ sampling strategies. Nevertheless, a key limitation of these "nature" simulations is the lack of interaction between the ocean and the atmosphere, which limits their usefulness for studying air-sea interactions and for designing observing missions to study these interactions. To remove this limitation, we aim to perform a coupled simulation using the km-scale GEOS atmosphere and the km-scale MIT ocean models. The initial attempt at the km-scale coupled simulation resulted in computational issues which will be presented here. As a preliminary step towards the km-scale objective, we present results from a high resolution but not yet km-scale simulation, wherein we have coupled a cubed-sphere-720 (~ 1/8) configuration of the GEOS atmosphere to a lat-lon-cap-1080 (~ 1/12) configuration of the MIT ocean. We compare near-surface diagnostics of this fully coupled ocean-atmosphere set-up to equivalent atmosphere-only and ocean-only simulations. A particular focus of the comparisons is the differences in interactions between Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and ocean surface wind for the coupled and uncoupled simulations. We discuss observed and modeled high temporal variability (~days) SST-wind cycle and how it is represented in the different systems. A mechanism for the cycle, which is driven by SST-wind feedback, is proposed.

Strobach, Ehud↗

Spatiotemporal Associations Between Social Vulnerability, Environmental Measurements, and COVID-19 in the Conterminous United States

This study summarizes the results from fitting a Bayesian hierarchical spatiotemporal model to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases and deaths at the county level in the United States for the year 2020. Two models were created, one for cases and one for deaths, utilizing a scaled Besag, York, Mollié model with Type I spatial-temporal interaction. Each model accounts for 16 social vulnerability and 7 environmental variables as fixed effects. The spatial pattern between COVID-19 cases and deaths is significantly different in many ways. The spatiotemporal trend of the pandemic in the United States illustrates a shift out of many of the major metropolitan areas into the United States Southeast and Southwest during the summer months and into the upper Midwest beginning in autumn. Analysis of the major social vulnerability predictors of COVID-19 infection and death found that counties with higher percentages of those not having a high school diploma, having non-White status and being Age 65 and over to be significant. Among the environmental variables, above ground level temperature had the strongest effect on relative risk to both cases and deaths. Hot and cold spots, areas of statistically significant high and low COVID-19 cases and deaths respectively, derived from the convolutional spatial effect show that areas with a high probability of above average relative risk have significantly higher Social Vulnerability Index composite scores. The same analysis utilizing the spatiotemporal interaction term exemplifies a more complex relationship between social vulnerability, environmental measurements, COVID-19 cases, and COVID-19 deaths.

spatial epidemiology↗

Estimating regional evapotranspiration from remotely sensed data by surface energy balance models

Spatial and temporal variations of surface radiative temperatures of the burned and unburned areas of the Konza tallgrass prairie were studied. The role of management practices, topographic conditions and the uncertainties associated with in situ or airborne surface temperature measurements were assessed. Evaluation of diurnal and seasonal spectral characteristics of the burned and unburned areas of the prairie was also made. This was accomplished based on the analysis of measured spectral reflectance of the grass canopies under field conditions, and modelling their spectral behavior using a one dimensional radiative transfer model.

Asrar, Ghassem↗

Temporal and vertical distribution of acidity and ionic composition in clouds - Comparison between modeling results and observations

Cyclic temporal variations of pH and ionic concentration in sampled clouds which traversed the Mt. Mitchell State Park (North Carolina) site during the summers of 1986, 1987, and 1988 are reported. These clouds typically had a measured pH minimum during their initial and final stages. The cause of this basic cylic pattern is attributed to sampling at different vertical levels of the cloud. This is substantiated by visual observations made while sampling. The results also suggest that the measured pH patterns do not always exhibit minima during the formative and dissipative stages of the cloud, apparently in response to the underlying dynamical processes. The relationship between temporal pH measurements made at a stationary site to vertical cloud levels provides insights into the physical processes (e.g., nucleation scavenging near cloud base, dry air entrainment near cloud top) influencing the observed cloud-water chemistry on a real-time basis and would improve cloud chemistry models.

Defelice, T. P.↗

Temporal variations in the dawn and dusk midlatitude trough position-modeled and measured (Ariel 3)

The temporal development of the latitudinal position of the 600 km midlatitude electron density trough at dawn and dusk during the period 25-27 May 1967, which encompassed a large magnetic storm, was measured by the RF capacitive probe on the polar orbiting Ariel 3 satellite. The substorm-related changes in the L coordinate of the trough minimum and the point of most rapid change of density gradient on the low latitude side of the trough are similar. Oscillations of the trough position at dusk are in phase with substorm activity whereas movement of the trough at dawn is only apparent with the onset of the large storm. Near dusk there is evidence of structure in the form of a tail-like extension of the plasmasphere at the peak of the storm. Detailed model calculations assuming a spatially invariant equatorial convection E field which varies in step with K sub p index reproduces much of the observed behavior, particularly at dusk, and shows that more than one plasmapause-type transition may be identifiable in the trough region.

Grebowsky, J. M.↗

The ST environment: Expected charged particle radiation levels

The external (surface incident) charged particle radiation, predicted for the ST satellite at the three different mission altitudes, was determined in two ways: (1) by orbital flux-integration and (2) by geographical instantaneous flux-mapping. The latest standard models of the environment were used in this effort. Magnetic field definitions for three nominal circular trajectories and for the geographic mapping positions were obtained from a current field model. Spatial and temporal variations or conditions affecting the static environment models were considered and accounted for, wherever possible. Limited shielding and dose evaluations were performed for a simple geometry. Results, given in tabular and graphical form, are analyzed, explained, and discussed. Conclusions are included.

Stassinopoulos, E. G.↗

Improved representation of the global dust cycle using observational constraints on dust properties and abundance

Even though desert dust is the most abundant aerosol by mass in Earth's atmosphere, atmospheric models struggle to accurately represent its spatial and temporal distribution. These model errors are partially caused by fundamental difficulties in simulating dust emission in coarse-resolution models and in accurately representing dust microphysical properties. Here we mitigate these problems by developing a new methodology that yields an improved representation of the global dust cycle. We present an analytical framework that uses inverse modeling to integrate an ensemble of global model simulations with observational constraints on the dust size distribution, extinction efficiency, and regional dust aerosol optical depth. We then compare the inverse model results against independent measurements of dust surface concentration and deposition flux and find that errors are reduced by approximately a factor of 2 relative to current model simulations of the Northern Hemisphere dust cycle. The inverse model results show smaller improvements in the less dusty Southern Hemisphere, most likely because both the model simulations and the observational constraints used in the inverse model are less accurate. On a global basis, we find that the emission flux of dust with a geometric diameter up to 20 µm (PM20) is approximately 5000 Tg yr−1, which is greater than most models account for. This larger PM20 dust flux is needed to match observational constraints showing a large atmospheric loading of coarse dust. We obtain gridded datasets of dust emission, vertically integrated loading, dust aerosol optical depth, (surface) concentration, and wet and dry deposition fluxes that are resolved by season and particle size. As our results indicate that this dataset is more accurate than current model simulations and the MERRA-2 dust reanalysis product, it can be used to improve quantifications of dust impacts on the Earth system.

Dust cycle↗

Mission Simulation of Space Lidar Measurements for Seasonal and Regional CO2 Variations

Results of mission simulation studies are presented for a laser-based atmospheric [82 sounder. The simulations are based on real-time carbon cycle process modeling and data analysis. The mission concept corresponds to the Active Sensing of [82 over Nights, Days, and Seasons (ASCENDS) recommended by the US National Academy of Sciences Decadal Survey of Earth Science and Applications from Space. One prerequisite for meaningful quantitative sensor evaluation is realistic CO2 process modeling across a wide range of scales, i.e., does the model have representative spatial and temporal gradients? Examples of model comparison with data will be shown. Another requirement is a relatively complete description of the atmospheric and surface state, which we have obtained from meteorological data assimilation and satellite measurements from MODIS and [ALIPS0. We use radiative transfer model calculations, an instrument model with representative errors ' and a simple retrieval approach to complete the cycle from "nature" run to "pseudo-data" CO2, Several mission and instrument configuration options are examined/ and the sensitivity to key design variables is shown. We use the simulation framework to demonstrate that within reasonable technological assumptions for the system performance, relatively high measurement precision can be obtained, but errors depend strongly on environmental conditions as well as instrument specifications. Examples are also shown of how the resulting pseudo - measurements might be used to address key carbon cycle science questions.

Kawa, Stephan↗

Application of time-variable process noise in terrestrial reference frames determined from VLBI data

In recent years, Kalman filtering has emerged as a suitable technique to determine terrestrial reference frames (TRFs), a prime example being JTRF2014. The time series approach allows variations of station coordinates that are neither reduced by observational corrections nor considered in the functional model to be taken into account. These variations are primarily due to non-tidal geophysical loading effects that are not reduced according to the current IERS Conventions (2010). It is standard practice that the process noise models applied in Kalman filter TRF solutions are derived from time series of loading displacements and account for station dependent differences. So far, it has been assumed that the parameters of these process noise models are constant over time. However, due to the presence of seasonal and irregular variations, this assumption does not truly reflect reality. In this study, we derive a station coordinate process noise model allowing for such temporal variations. This process noise model and one that is a parameterized version of the former are applied in the computation of TRF solutions based on very long baseline interferometry data. In comparison with a solution based on a constant process noise model, we find that the station coordinates are affected at the millimeter level.

Schuh, Harald↗

Effects of Rhenium Addition on the Temporal Evolution of the Nanostructure and Chemistry of a Model Ni-Cr-Al Superalloy: Experimental Observations - 1

The temporal evolution of the nanostructure and chemistry of a model Ni-8.5 at.% Cr-10 at. % Al alloy, with the addition of 2 at.% Re, aged at 1073 K from 0.25 to 264 h, was studied. Transmission electron microscopy and atom-probe tomography were used to measure the number density and mean radius of the gamma prime (L1(sub 2) structure)-precipitates and the chemistry of the gamma prime-precipitates and the gamma (face-centered cubic)-matrix, including the partitioning behavior of all alloying elements between the gamma- and gamma prime-phases and the segregation behavior at gamma/gamma prime interfaces. The precipitates remained spheroidal for an aging time of up to 264 h and, unlike commercial nickel-based superalloys containing Re, there was not confined (nonmonotonic) Re segregation at the gamma/gamma prime interfaces.

Yoon, Kevin E.↗

Exploring the Production of NOx by Lightning and Its Impact on Tropospheric Ozone

Our quantitative understanding of free tropospheric (FT) chemistry is quite poor. State-of-the-art regional air quality models (e.g., US EPA's CMAQ) perform very poorly in simulating FT chemistry, with Uniform ozone around 70 ppb throughout the FT in summer, while ozonesonde data show much higher levels of ozone and much spatial-temporal structure. Such models completely neglect lightning-NOx (LNOx) emissions (the most significant source of NOx in the FT), and also contain large uncertainties in the specifications of intercontinental transport, stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE) and PBLFT exchange (PFTE). Global air chemistry models include LNOx, but in very crude fashion, with the frequency and distribution of lightning being based on modeled cloud parameters (hence large uncertainty), lightning energetics being assumed to be constant for all flashes (literature value, while in reality there is at least a two-orders of magnitude variability from flash-to-flash), and the production of NOx in the surrounding heated air, per Joule of heating, being assumed to be constant also (literature value, while in fact it is a non-linear function of the dissipated heat and local air density, p). This situation is commonly blamed on paucity of pertinent observational data, but for the USA, there is now a wealth of surface- and satellite-based data of lightning available to permit much improved observation-based estimation of LNOx emissions. In the FT, such NOx has a long residence time, and also the ozone production efficiency from NOx there is considerably higher than in the PBL. It is, therefore, of critical importance in FT chemistry. This paper will describe the approach and data products of an ongoing NSSTC project aimed at a much-improved quantification of not only LNOx production on the scale of continental USA based on local and regional lightning observations, but also of intercontinental transport, STE and PFTE, all in upgraded simulations of tropospheric transport and chemistry. In our approach for LNOx, (a) we utilize continuous observed lightning information from the NLDN ground network and from satellite imagers (OTD and LIS) to quantify lightning frequency and distribution at the spatial-temporal scales of models such as CMAQ; (b) we develop new methodologies to quantify flash-specific lightning energy dissipation as heat (epsilon) using data from the research-grade lightning measurement facility at NASA-KSC, and to parameterize epsilon based on regional lightning monitoring data (ground- and satellite-based); and, (c) we develop a new parameterization of NOx production as a function of epsilon and rho. Based on such observation-based information, we are working to develop a gridded, episodic LNOx emissions inventory for the USA for use in models like CMAQ. We are also developing approaches for global(MOZART)- regional(CMAQ) chemistry coupling to improve intercontinental transport and STE. Finally, we are developing new methodologies for assimilation of satellite-observed (GOES) clouds into meteorological modeling (MM5), to improve PFTE and to optimize co-location of cloud convection and observed lightning. We will incorporate these improvements in CMAQ simulations over the USA to better understand FT processes and chemistry, and its impact on ground-level ozone.

Gillani, Noor↗

Improved Representation of the Global Dust Cycle Using Observational Constraints on Dust Properties and Abundance

Even though desert dust is the most abundant aerosol by mass in Earth’s atmosphere, atmospheric models 25 struggle to accurately represent its spatial and temporal distribution. These model errors are partially caused byfundamental difficulties in simulating dust emission in coarse-resolution models and in accurately representing dust microphysical properties. Here we mitigate these problems by developing a new methodology that yields an improved representation of the global dust cycle. We present an analytical framework that uses inverse modeling to integrate an ensemble of global model simulations with observational constraints on the dust size distribution, 30 extinction efficiency, and regional dust aerosol optical depth. We then compare the inverse model results against independent measurements of dust surface concentration and deposition flux and find that errors are reduced by approximately a factor of two relative to current model simulations of the Northern Hemisphere dust cycle. The inverse model results show smaller improvements in the less dusty Southern Hemisphere, most likely because both the model simulations and the observational constraints used in the inverse model are less accurate. On a global 35 basis, we find that the emission flux of dust with geometric diameter up to 20 μm (PM20) is approximately 5,000 Tg/year, which is greater than most models account for. This larger PM20 dust flux is needed to match observational constraints showing a large atmospheric loading of coarse dust. We obtain gridded data sets of dust emission, vertically integrated loading, dust aerosol optical depth, (surface) concentration, and wet and dry deposition fluxes that are resolved by season and particle size. As our results indicate that this data set is more accurate than current 40 model simulations and the MERRA-2 dust reanalysis product, it can be used to improve quantifications of dust impacts on the Earth system.

aerosols, dust↗

Global-Scale Comparison of Passive (SMOS) and Active (ASCAT) Satellite Based Microwave Soil Moisture Retrievals with Soil Moisture Simulations (MERRA-Land)

Global surface soil moisture (SSM) datasets are being produced based on active and passive microwave satellite observations and simulations from land surface models (LSM). This study investigates the consistency of two global satellite-based SSM datasets based on microwave remote sensing observations from the passive Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS;SMOSL3 version 2.5) and the active Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT; version TUWien- WARP 5.5) with respect to LSM SSM from the MERRA-Land data product. The relationship between the global-scale SSM products was studied during the 2010-2012 period using (1) a time series statistics (considering both original SSM data and anomalies), (2) a space-time analysis using Hovmoller diagrams, and (3) a triple collocation error model. The SMOSL3 and ASCAT retrievals are consistent with the temporal dynamics of modeled SSM (correlation R (is) greater than 0.70 for original SSM) in the transition zones between wet and dry climates, including the Sahel, the Indian subcontinent, the Great Plains of North America, eastern Australia, and southeastern Brazil. Over relatively dense vegetation covers, a better consistency with MERRA-Land was obtained with ASCAT than with SMOSL3. However, it was found that ASCAT retrievals exhibit negative correlation versus MERRA-Land in some arid regions (e.g., the Sahara and the Arabian Peninsula). In terms of anomalies, SMOSL3 better captures the short term SSM variability of the reference dataset (MERRA-Land) than ASCAT over regions with limited radio frequency interference (RFI) effects (e.g., North America, South America, and Australia). The seasonal and latitudinal variations of SSM are relatively similar for the three products, although the MERRALand SSM values are generally higher and their seasonal amplitude is much lower than for SMOSL3 and ASCAT. Both SMOSL3 and ASCAT have relatively comparable triple collocation errors with similar spatial error patterns: (i) lowest errors in arid regions (e.g., Sahara and Arabian Peninsula), due to the very low natural variability of soil moisture in these areas, and Central America, and (ii) highest errors over most of the vegetated regions (e.g., northern Australia, India, central Asia, and South America). However, the ASCAT SSM product is prone to larger random errors in some regions (e.g., north-western Africa, Iran, and southern South Africa). Vegetation density was found to be a key factor to interpret the consistency with MERRA-Land between the two remotely sensed products (SMOSL3 and ASCAT) which provides complementary information on SSM. This study shows that both SMOS and ASCAT have thus a potential for data fusion into long-term data records.

ASCAT↗

SPIN or LURCH : a Comparative Assessment of Model Checking and Stochastic Search for Temporal Properties in Procedural Code

The difficulty of how to test large systems, such as the one on board a NASA robotic remote explorer (RRE) vehicle, is fundamentally a search issue: the global state space representing all possible has yet to be solved, even after many decades of work. Randomized algorithms have been known to outperform their deterministic counterparts for search problems representing a wide range of applications. In the case study presented here, the LURCH randomized algorithm proved to be adequate to the task of testing a NASA RRE vehicle. LURCH found all the errors found by an earlier analysis of a more complete method (SPIN). Our empirical results are that LURCH can scale to much larger models than standard model checkers like SMV and SPIN. Further, the LURCH analysis was simpler than the SPIN analysis. The simplicity and scalability of LURCH are two compelling reasons for experimenting further with this tool.

verification↗

Constraining particle acceleration in Sgr A? with simultaneous GRAVITY, Spitzer, NuSTAR, and Chandra observations

We report the time-resolved spectral analysis of a bright near-infrared and moderate X-ray flare of Sgr A⋆. We obtained light curves in the M, K, and H bands in the mid- and near-infrared and in the 2 − 8 keV and 2 − 70 keV bands in the X-ray. The observed spectral slope in the near-infrared band is νLν ∝ ν0.5 ± 0.2; the spectral slope observed in the X-ray band is νLν ∝ ν−0.7 ± 0.5. Using a fast numerical implementation of a synchrotron sphere with a constant radius, magnetic field, and electron density (i.e., a one-zone model), we tested various synchrotron and synchrotron self-Compton scenarios. The observed near-infrared brightness and X-ray faintness, together with the observed spectral slopes, pose challenges for all models explored. We rule out a scenario in which the near-infrared emission is synchrotron emission and the X-ray emission is synchrotron self-Compton. Two realizations of the one-zone model can explain the observed flare and its temporal correlation: one-zone model in which the near-infrared and X-ray luminosity are produced by synchrotron self-Compton and a model in which the luminosity stems from a cooled synchrotron spectrum. Both models can describe the mean spectral energy distribution (SED) and temporal evolution similarly well. In order to describe the mean SED, both models require specific values of the maximum Lorentz factor γmax, which differ by roughly two orders of magnitude. The synchrotron self-Compton model suggests that electrons are accelerated to γmax ∼ 500, while cooled synchrotron model requires acceleration up to γmax ∼ 5 × 104. The synchrotron self-Compton scenario requires electron densities of 1010 cm−3 that are much larger than typical ambient densities in the accretion flow. Furthermore, it requires a variation of the particle density that is inconsistent with the average mass-flow rate inferred from polarization measurements and can therefore only be realized in an extraordinary accretion event. In contrast, assuming a source size of 1 RS, the cooled synchrotron scenario can be realized with densities and magnetic fields comparable with the ambient accretion flow. For both models, the temporal evolution is regulated through the maximum acceleration factor γmax, implying that sustained particle acceleration is required to explain at least a part of the temporal evolution of the flare.

R. Abuter↗