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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 127 records · Page 7

Polyelectrolyte complex scaffoldings for photocrosslinked hydrogels

Photocrosslinkable precursors (small molecules or polymers) undergo rapid crosslinking upon photoirradiation, forming covalently crosslinked hydrogels. The spatiotemporally controlled crosslinking, which can be achieved in situ, encourages the utility of photocrosslinked hydrogels in biomedicine as bioadhesives, bioprinting inks, and extracellular matrix mimics. However, the low viscosity of the precursor solutions results in unwanted flows and dilution, leading to handling difficulties and compromised strength of the photocrosslinked hydrogels. Here, we introduce oppositely charged triblock polyelectrolytes as additives for precursor solutions that transform them into self-assembled polyelectrolyte complex (PEC) hydrogels with enhanced shear strength and viscosity, providing interim protection against precursor dilution and mitigating secondary flows. The PEC network also augments the properties of the photocrosslinked hydrogels. Crosslinking of the precursors upon photoirradiation results in the formation of interpenetrating polymer network hydrogels with PEC and covalently-linked networks that exhibit shear moduli exceeding the linear combination of the moduli of the constituent networks and overcome the tensile strength–extensibility tradeoff that restricts the performance of covalently-linked hydrogels. In conclusion, the reinforcement approach is shown to be compatible with four types of photocrosslinkable precursors, does not require any modification of the precursors, and introduces minimal processing steps, paving the way for a broader translation of photocrosslinkable materials for biomedical applications.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

X Fe 4 Ge 2 ( X = Y , Lu ) and Mn 3 Pt : Filling-enforced magnetic topological metals

Magnetism, coupled with nontrivial band topology, can bring about many interesting and exotic phenomena, so that magnetic topological materials have attracted persistent research interest. However, compared with nonmagnetic topological materials (TMs), the magnetic TMs are less studied, since their magnetic structures and topological phase transitions are usually complex and the first-principles predictions are usually sensitive on the effect of Coulomb interaction. Here we present a comprehensive investigation of XFe 4 Ge 2 (X = Y, Lu) and Mn 3 Pt, and find these materials to be filling-enforced magnetic topological metals. Our first-principles calculations show that XFe 4 Ge 2 (X = Y, Lu) host Dirac points near the Fermi level at high symmetry point S. These Dirac points are protected by $\text{P}\mathcal{T}$ symmetry ($\text{P}$ and $\mathcal{T}$ are inversion and time-reversal transformations, respectively) and a twofold screw rotation symmetry. Moreover, through breaking $\text{P}\mathcal{T}$ symmetry, the Dirac points would split into Weyl nodes. Mn 3 Pt is found to host fourfold degenerate band crossings in the whole high symmetry path of A – Z . We also utilize the GGA + U scheme to take into account the effect of Coulomb repulsion and find that the filling-enforced topological properties are naturally insensitive on U .

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Influence of cellular redox reactions on the structure and function of light harvesting and photosystems

Photosynthesis enables the conversion of one of the most abundant and free forms of energy, sunlight, into chemical bonds through the utilization of highly tailored protein complexes. These enzymes work in unison to absorb, convert, and transform light into high-energy electrons which are used for various functions important to metabolism and cellular protection. Over the last ∼50 years, photosynthetic organisms, such as cyanobacteria, have been adapted and engineered to produce valuable compounds like hydrogen and ethylene, among others. Often this is performed by removing native and/or adding in exogenous energy utilization pathways so that light energy is re-directed towards the synthesis of desired compounds. However, the interplay between primary light capture, conversion reactions, and the downstream electron utilization sinks is not fully understood. Further complicating these strategies are the plethora of compensatory mechanisms that facilitate steady electron flow and the maintenance of photosynthesis under dynamic conditions. This manifests as structural and functional plasticity of the photosynthetic machinery, often seen in modulations of oligomeric compositions or changes in protein-protein interactions and coupling with redox enzymes. Understanding these mechanisms is crucial to biotechnology applications because re-engineering electron utilization sinks has profoundly different effects on the light capture and conversion reactions of photosynthesis. Optimization requires a molecular-level understanding of the functional interrelationships between electron sinks and photosynthetic components that influence photosynthetic efficiencies to realize potential improvements in product yields. Here, we aim to highlight how perturbation of reductive reactions is revealing the functional plasticity in key components of the photosynthetic energy transduction pathway.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Scandia-and-Yttria-Stabilized Zirconia for Thermal Barriers

yttria in suitable proportions has shown promise of being a superior thermal- barrier coating (TBC) material, relative to zirconia stabilized with yttria only. More specifically, a range of compositions in the zirconia/scandia/yttria material system has been found to afford increased resistance to deleterious phase transformations at temperatures high enough to cause deterioration of yttria-stabilized zirconia. Yttria-stabilized zirconia TBCs have been applied to metallic substrates in gas turbine and jet engines to protect the substrates against high operating temperatures. These coatings have porous and microcracked structures, which can accommodate strains induced by thermal-expansion mismatch and thermal shock. The longevity of such a coating depends upon yttria as a stabilizing additive that helps to maintain the zirconia in an yttria-rich, socalled non-transformable tetragonal crystallographic phase, thus preventing transformation to the monoclinic phase with an associated deleterious volume change. However, at a temperature greater than about 1,200 C, there is sufficient atomic mobility that the equilibrium, transformable zirconia phase is formed. Upon subsequent cooling, this phase transforms to the monoclinic phase, with an associated volume change that adversely affects the integrity of the coating. Recently, scandia was identified as a stabilizer that could be used instead of, or in addition to, yttria. Of particular interest are scandia-and-yttria-stabilized zirconia (SYSZ) compositions of about 6 mole percent scandia and 1 mole percent yttria, which have been found to exhibit remarkable phase stability at a temperature of 1,400 C in simple aging tests. Unfortunately, scandia is expensive, so that the problem becomes one of determining whether there are compositions with smaller proportions of scandia that afford the required high-temperature stability. In an attempt to solve this problem, experiments were performed on specimens made with reduced proportions of scandia. The criterion used to judge these specimens was whether they retained the non-transformable tetragonal phase after a severe heat treatment of 140 hours at 1,400 C.

Mess, Derek↗

A manned lunar outpost. Design considerations for three key elements in an initial manned lunar outpost

The Initial Manned Lunar Outpost (IMLO) is proposed as the initial permanent base for manned activities on the Moon. The study concentrated on identifying the equipment, support systems, and initial base configuration necessary to accomplish the various science, industrial and exploration activities planned. The primary concepts of the MLO were the use of hard modules for habitation areas creating a flexible, modular transportation system; designing a multi-functional vehicle; and using an overhead radiation protection system. The transportation system, dubbed the Lunar Mobile Surface Transport System (LMSTS), carries the hard modules to the surface of the moon and provides a method to move them to the desired location through the use of interchangeable pallets. The avionics pallets are changed-out with wheel and hitch pallets, transforming the LMSTS into a "tractor trailer" used with the Multi-Functional Vehicle (MFV). The modules are placed under the Regolith Support Structure (RSS) which provides a stable environment and radiation protection for the entire base. The overhead structure was chosen over simply burying the modules to provide a study on the advantages and disadvantages of this type of system. The advantages include easy access to the exterior of the modules, providing a protected area for vehicles and equipment used in EVA, and creating an area of constant temperature. Disadvantages include a need for prefabrication of structural components, including the preconstruction and construction phases of the initial MLO. The design approach taken considered existing and near-term materials and technology only, without the consideration of possible future building technologies.

Bell, Larry↗

Famine Early Warning Systems and Remote Sensing Data

This book describes the interdisciplinary work of USAID's Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET) and its influence on how food security crises are identified, documented and the kind of responses that result. The book describes FEWS NET's systems and methods for using satellite remote sensing to identify and describe how biophysical hazards impact the lives and livelihoods of the population where they occur. It presents several illustrative case studies that will demonstrate the integration of both physical and social science disciplines in its work. FEWS NET s operational needs have driven science in biophysical remote sensing applications through its collaboration with the US Geological Survey, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration, and US Department of Agriculture, as well as methodologies in the social science domain through its support of the US Agency for International Development, UNWorld Food Program and numerous international non-governmental organizations such as Save the Children, Oxfam and others. Because FEWS NET is an organization that must provide a global picture of food insecurity to decision makers, the information it relies on are by necessity observable and able to be documented. Thus many aspects of traditional livelihood analysis, for example, cannot be used by FEWS NET as they rely upon relationships, and ways of expressing power and knowledge at the local scale that cannot be easily scaled up to express variations in access to food at a community level. The book focuses on the ways that remote sensing information is transformed into an understanding of the actions that must be taken in order to ensure that lives and livelihoods are protected, including describing the remote sensing observations and models needed to identify hazards and the information gathering requirements and analytical frameworks needed to understand their impact. Its focus is primarily analysis conducted in Africa, but also touches upon FEWS NET s work in Central America, Haiti and Afghanistan. As an organization that seeks to integrate social and physical science methodologies and strategies into its work on a daily basis, it is a fascinating and rich example of interdisciplinary knowledge generation and innovation.

Brown, Molly E.↗

Remediation Technologies Eliminate Contaminants

All research and development has a story behind it, says Jacqueline Quinn, environmental engineer at Kennedy Space Center. For Quinn, one such story begins with the Saturn 1B launch stand at Kennedy and ends with a unique solution to a challenging environmental problem. Used in a number of Apollo missions and during the Skylab program, the Saturn 1B launch stand was dismantled following the transition to the Space Shuttle Program and stored in an open field at Kennedy. Decades later, the Center s Environmental Program Office discovered evidence of chemicals called polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in the field s soil. The findings were puzzling since PCBs a toxin classified as a probable carcinogen by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) have been banned in the United States since 1979. Before the ban, PCBs were commonly used in transformer oils that leached into the ground when the oils were changed out and dumped near transformer sites, but there were no electrical transformers near the dismantled stand. It soon became apparent that the source of the PCBs was the launch stand itself. Prior to the ban, PCBs were used extensively in paints to add elasticity and other desirable characteristics. The PCB-laden paint on the Saturn 1B launch stand was flaking off into the field s soil. Nobody knew there were PCBs in the paint, says Quinn, noting that the ingredient was not monitored carefully when it was in use in 1960s. In fact, she says, the U.S. EPA was not even established until 1970, a year after Neil Armstrong first set foot on the Moon. Nobody knew any better at the time, Quinn says, but today, we have the responsibility to return any natural environmental media to as close to pristine a condition as possible. Quinn, fellow engineer Kathleen Loftin, and other Kennedy colleagues already had experience developing unprecedented solutions for environmental contamination; the team invented the emulsified zero-valent iron (EZVI) technology to safely treat groundwater tainted by chlorinated solvents once used to clean rocket engine components. The award-winning innovation (Spinoff 2010) is now NASA s most licensed technology to date. PCBs in paint presented a new challenge. Removing the launch stand for recycling proved a difficult operation; the toxic paint had to be fully stripped from the steel structure, a lengthy and costly process that required the stripped paint to be treated before disposal. Noting the lack of efficient, environmentally friendly options for dealing with PCBs, Quinn and her colleagues developed the Activated Metal Treatment System (AMTS). AMTS is a paste consisting of a solvent solution containing microscale particles of activated zero-valent metal. When applied to a painted surface, the paste extracts and degrades the PCBs into benign byproducts while leaving the paint on the structure. This provides a superior alternative to other methods for PCB remediation, such as stripping the paint or incinerating the structure, which prevents reuse and can release volatized PCBs into the air. Since its development, AMTS has proven to be a valuable solution for removing PCBs from paint, caulking, and various insulation and filler materials in older buildings, naval ships, and former munitions facilities where the presence of PCBs interferes with methods for removing trace explosive materials. Miles of potentially toxic caulking join sections of runways at airports. Any of these materials installed before 1979 potentially contain PCBs, Quinn says. "This is not just a NASA problem," she says. "It s a global problem."

Source record↗

Unlocking the Microbiome of the International Space Station

With the start of human occupation more than 22 years ago, the microbiome of International Space Station (ISS) has been monitored to assess risk to both crew and craft. Historically, this monitoring has been achieved through onboard culture and ground-based analyses. Data spanning this timeframe are descriptive of a semi-closed, human occupied environment with associations to crew changes and process escapes within the environmental control and life support systems. While this approach has served to provide alerts to anomalies and overall confidence in the controls in place, the data are limited to the media type and growth conditions used. The bias toward the detection of culturable organisms has depicted an overall lack in biodiversity. As NASA leaves the ISS to focus on exploration, it is critical to fully understand its microbiome and its possible association to the noted positive influence on crew and vehicle health. The implementation of culture-independent, nanopore sequencing-based studies, both onboard the ISS and with returned ground samples, is revealing a more thorough depiction of the microbiome. As noted with pervious culture-based data, there is a common core microbiome across time and location, but key distinct areas of greater diversity exist. Through further investigation, these areas are emerging as unique ecological niches, potentially resulting in environmentally driven microbial selection. Moreover, the presence of some noted taxa within these unique locations has implications for crew health, planetary protection, and controls used in future spacecraft systems. The ability to perform in situ profiling of the ISS microbiome is transforming how NASA assesses risk and is a critical tool towards monitoring the establishment of the environmental microbiome in exploration spacecraft.

Sarah Stahl-Rommel↗

Analysis of International Space Station Vehicle Materials on MISSE 6

The International Space Station Materials and Processes team has multiple material samples on MISSE 6, 7 and 8 to observe Low Earth Orbit (LEO) environmental effects on Space Station materials. Optical properties, thickness/mass loss, surface elemental analysis, visual and microscopic analysis for surface change are some of the techniques employed in this investigation. Results for the following MISSE 6 samples materials will be presented: deionized water sealed anodized aluminum; Hyzod(tm) polycarbonate used to temporarily protect ISS windows; Russian quartz window material; Beta Cloth with Teflon(tm) reformulated without perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA), and electroless nickel. Discussion for current and future MISSE materials experiments will be presented. MISSE 7 samples are: more deionized water sealed anodized aluminum, including Photofoil(tm); indium tin oxide (ITO) over-coated Kapton(tm) used as thermo-optical surfaces; mechanically scribed tin-plated beryllium-copper samples for "tin pest" growth (alpha/beta transformation); and beta cloth backed with a black coating rather than aluminization. MISSE 8 samples are: exposed "scrim cloth" (fiberglass weave) from the ISS solar array wing material, protective fiberglass tapes and sleeve materials, and optical witness samples to monitor contamination.

Finckenor, Miria↗

Testing of a 15 kA Superconducting Transformer

Here, the manufacturing of superconducting magnets for High Energy Physics (HEP) and Fusion Energy Sciences (FES) applications requires high-current conductors to generate stronger magnetic fields without increasing the inductance of the magnet. Increased inductance is undesirable due to the associated AC losses, which reduce the temperature margin; and the quench protection also becomes complicated. Testing high-current conductors with a direct current (DC) room temperature power supply is unfeasible for two primary reasons: 1) the limited capacity to supply large currents, and 2) the significant heat load losses at the current leads. A superconducting transformer offers a solution to both challenges. A 50-kA superconducting transformer is planned for manufacturing and commissioning at Brookhaven National Laboratory as part of its user facility upgrade. This transformer will facilitate the testing of superconducting cables, conductors, joints, and insert coils under high magnetic field conditions (10 T) and with currents up to 50-kA. To evaluate the manufacturing process and validate the theoretical models, the magnet division has developed and tested a 15-kA prototype transformer. A control loop has been implemented to ensure precise current delivery to the sample. This paper presents the coil design, manufacturing, and experimental results from the cold tests.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Issues in protection from galactic cosmic rays

Radiation risks to astronauts depend on the microscopic fluctuations of energy absorption events in specific tissues. These fluctuations depend not only on the space environment but also on the modifications of that environment by the shielding provided by structures surrounding the astronauts and the attenuation characteristics of the astronaut's body. The effects of attenuation within the shield and body depends on the tissue biological response to these microscopic fluctuations. In the absence of an accepted method for estimating astronaut risk, we examined the attenuation characteristics using conventional linear energy transfer (LET)-dependent quality factors (as one means of representing relative biological effectiveness, RBE) and a track-structure repair model to fit cell transformation (and inactivation) data in the C3H10 T1/2 mouse cell system obtained for various ion beams. Although the usual aluminum spacecraft shield is effective in reducing dose equivalent with increasing shield thickness, cell transformation rates are increased for thin aluminum shields. Clearly, the exact nature of the biological response to LET and track width is critical to evaluation of biological protection factors provided by a shield design. A significant fraction of biological injury results from the LET region above 100 keV/mu m. Uncertainty in nuclear cross-sections results in a factor of 2-3 in the transmitted LET spectrum beyond depths of 15 g/cm2, but even greater uncertainty is due to the combined effects of uncertainty in biological response and nuclear parameters. Clearly, these uncertainties must be reduced before the shield design can be finalised.

NASA Discipline Number 45-10↗

Optical constants of magnetron sputtered aluminum in the range 17–1300 eV with improved accuracy and ultrahigh resolution in the L absorption edge region

This work determines a new set of EUV/x-ray optical constants for aluminum (Al), one of the most important materials in science and technology. Absolute photoabsorption (transmittance) measurements in the 17–1300 eV spectral range were performed on freestanding Al films protected by carbon (C) layers, to prevent oxidation. The dispersive portion of the refractive index was obtained via the Kramers–Kronig transformation. Our data provide significant improvements in accuracy compared to previously tabulated values and reveal fine structure in the Al L 1 and L 2,3 regions, with photon energy step sizes as small as 0.02 eV. The implications of this work in the successful realization of EUV/x-ray instruments and in the validation of atomic and molecular physics models are also discussed.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

Environmental projects. Volume 1: Polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) abatement program

Six large parabolic dish antennas are located at the Goldstone Deep Space Communications Complex north of Barstow, California. Some of the ancillary electrical equipment of thes Deep Space Stations, particularly transformers and power capicitors, were filled with stable, fire-retardant, dielectric fluids containing substances called polychlorobiphenyls (PCBs). Because the Environmental Protection Agency has determined that PCBs are environmental pollutants toxic to humans, all NASA centers have been asked to participate in a PCB-abatement program. Under the supervision of JPL's Office of Telecommunications and Data Acquisition, a two-year long PCB-abatement program has eliminated PCBs from the Goldstone Complex.

Kushner, L.↗

Concept for Hydrogen-Impregnated Nanofiber/Photovoltaic Cargo Stowage System

A stowage system was conceived that consists of collapsible, reconfigurable stowage bags, rigid polyethylene or metal inserts, stainless-steel hooks, flexible photovoltaic materials, and webbing curtains that provide power generation, thermal stabilization, impact resistance, work/sleeping surfaces, and radiation protection to spaceflight hardware and crew members. Providing materials to the Lunar surface is costly from both a mass and a volume standpoint. Most of the materials that will be transferred to other planets or celestial bodies will not be returned to the Earth. In developing a plan to reconfigure pressurized logistics modules, it was determined that there was a requirement to be able to utilize the interior volume of these modules and transform them from Logistics Modules to Storage/Living Quarters. Logistics-to-living must re-utilize stowage bags and the structures that support them to construct living spaces, partitions, furniture, protective shelters from solar particle events, galactic cosmic radiation, and workspaces. In addition to reusing these logistics items for development of the interior living spaces, these items could also be reused outside the habitable volumes to build berms that protect assets from secondary blast ejecta, to define pathways, to stabilize high traffic areas, to protect against dust contamination, to secure assets to mobility elements, to provide thermal protection, and to create other types of protective shelters for surface experiments. Unique features of this innovation include hydrogen-impregnated nano fibers encapsulated in a polyethelyne coating that act as radiation shielding, flexible solar collection cells that can be connected together with cells from other bags via the webbing walls to create a solar array, and the ability to reconfigure each bag to satisfy multiple needs.

Kennedy, Kriss J.↗

MISSE 6, 7 and 8 Materials Sample Experiments from the International Space Station Materials and Processes Team

The International Space Station Materials and Processes (ISS M&P) team has multiple material samples on MISSE 6, 7 and 8 to observe Low Earth Orbit (LEO) environmental effects on Space Station materials. Optical properties, thickness/mass loss, surface elemental analysis, visual and microscopic analysis for surface change are some of the techniques employed in this investigation. The ISS M&P team has participated in previous MISSE activities in order to better characterize the LEO effects on Space Station materials. This investigation will further this effort. Results for the following MISSE 6 samples materials will be presented: a comparison of anodize and chemical conversion coatings on various aluminum alloys, electroless nickel; AZ93 white ceramic thermal control coating with and without Teflon; Hyzod(TM) polycarbonate used to temporarily protect ISS windows; Russian quartz window material; reformulated Teflon (TM) coated Beta Cloth (Teflon TM without perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA)) and a Dutch version of beta cloth. Discussion for current and future MISSE materials experiments will be presented. MISSE 7 samples are: deionized water sealed anodized aluminum Photofoil(TM); indium tin oxide (ITO)- coated Kapton(TM) used as thermo-optical surfaces; mechanically scribed tin-plated beryllium-copper samples for "tin pest" growth ( alpha/Beta transformation); Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) parachute soft goods. MISSE 8 sample: exposed "scrim cloth" (fiberglass weave) from the ISS solar array wing material, Davlyn fiberglass sleeve material, Permacel and Intertape protective tapes, and ITO-coated Kapton.

Kravchenko, Michael↗

A Fast-Response High-Accuracy Overvoltage Protection Circuit for Soft-Switching Current-Source Converters

Although voltage-source converters (VSCs) have been a focus of research for decades and are widely applied in numerous applications, they face great challenges in short-circuit failures, high dv/dt and electromagnetic interference (EMI), especially using wide bandgap devices. Instead, current-source converters (CSCs) are attracting increasing attention in recent years owing to their friendliness to short-circuit faults, improved EMI, etc. For CSCs, overvoltage is the most catastrophic failure since the semiconductor devices can hardly withstand an overvoltage for a short pulse. In this paper, a fast-response high-accuracy overvoltage protection (OVP) circuit is proposed to protect CSCs from overvoltage damage. It also features a small form factor, good noise-immunity, friendly retrofit capability, and no need for active switches. In this paper, the operating principle and design guideline of the proposed OVP circuit is introduced. Its effectiveness is validated in soft-switching solid-state transformer (S4T) at 500 V. In experiments, the voltage detection error of less than 5% and a propagation delay of fewer than 400 ns have been achieved.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

Reducing the Overnight Capital Cost of Advanced Reactors Using Equipment-Level Seismic Protective Systems

Consideration of the effects of earthquake shaking on the design and construction of nuclear power plants adds substantially to the overnight capital cost, with anecdotal estimates as high as 35+%, attributed to additional construction materials, need for one-off and sub-optimal designs of equipment due to conflicting design choices, the high cost of seismic qualification of equipment, and regulatory review. Safety-critical equipment in large light water reactors is designed and qualified for seismic demands imposed by the supporting reactor building, optimal mechanical designs are not possible, and designs of a given piece of equipment may vary with height above grade. Similar negative impacts are expected for advanced reactors unless the seismic design paradigm is changed. The overarching goal of this transformational MEITNER project, which involved a multidisciplinary engineering team and designers of three fundamentally different advanced reactors, was to adapt proven seismic isolation and damping technologies to operationalize modular protective systems for safety-class equipment inside advanced reactor buildings. Such seismic protective systems would be tightly integrated into design development for reactor support systems and balance-of-plant construction. The adoption of the technology, which is widely used in non-nuclear sectors, would simplify plant design, enable the use of standardized equipment and buildings, optimized for operational performance, and reduce plant size and weight. The need for site-specific equipment would be eliminated, enabling identical equipment to be used across multiple plants sited across the US and economies of scale, and catalyzing new interest and investment. The equipment-based protective systems would allow siting of advanced reactors in regions of high seismic hazard.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Multi-Agency Ensemble Forecast of Wildfire Air Quality in the United States: Toward Community Consensus of Early Warning

Wildfires pose increasing risks to human health and properties in North America. Due to large uncertainties in fire emission, transport, and chemical transformation, it remains challenging to accurately predict air quality during wildfire events, hindering our collective capability to issue effective early warnings to protect public health and welfare. Here we present a new real-time Hazardous Air Quality Ensemble System (HAQES) by leveraging various wildfire smoke forecasts from three U.S. federal agencies (NOAA, NASA, and Navy). Compared to individual models, the HAQES ensemble forecast significantly enhances forecast accuracy. To further enhance forecasting performance, a weighted ensemble forecast approach was introduced and tested. Compared to the unweighted ensemble mean, the multilinear regression weighted ensemble reduced fractional bias by 34% in the major fire regions, false alarm rate by 72%, and increased hit rate by 17%. Finally, we improved the weighted ensemble using quantile regression and weighted regression methods to enhance the forecast of extreme air quality events. The advanced weighted ensemble increased the PM2.5 exceedance hit rate by 55% compared to the ensemble mean. Our findings provide insights into the development of advanced ensemble forecast methods for wildfire air quality, offering a practical way to enhance decision-making support to protect public health.

Yunyao Li↗