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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 127 records · Page 7
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DOE OSTI2024

High-Level Assessment of Grid Infrastructure in Southeast Asia to Support Regional Interconnections

The purpose of this slide deck is to provide an overview of the benefits of interregional transmission and to assess the specific transmission landscape of Southeast Asia, with respect to potential interconnections between Singapore and neighboring countries. This analysis also explores the distribution of renewable resources and electricity demand in ASEAN (the Association of Southeast Asian Nations) as well as current and anticipated interregional transmission, in order to inform future interconnection plans.

ASEAN↗
DOE OSTI2022

Water and Climate Impacts on ERCOT Long-Term Systems Assessment

Water and climate change pose many potential challenges to the electric power system. Substantial water is withdrawn every day to support thermoelectric power generating unit operations, and changes to water supply have the potential to affect generation dispatch. Climate change can accelerate growing demand for electricity, which can necessitate additional generating capacity, often in locations with limited water supply. Drought conditions also threaten thermoelectric power plant operations due to streamflow and reservoir levels dropping below intake structures, or water temperatures exceeding a power plants' permitted operating conditions. Here we explore how future climate change might influence decisions related to electricity capacity expansion planning in Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) using a multi-model framework. Specifically, water resource modeling is used to simulate climate impacts on the future water supply for thermoelectric and hydropower generation for four future climate projections. Separately, temperature impacts on electricity load are evaluated for these scenarios. These climate impacts are applied to five alternative electricity futures in an electricity capacity expansion model that projects future generation and transmission capacity additions in ERCOT. Results indicate that climate has a measurable influence on future generation and transmission capacity needs, with temperature-driven increases in peak and average load resulting in 5-15 GW additional generating capacity and up to 1 GW additional transmission capacity. Additional capacity is a diverse mix of PV, natural gas, and wind, depending on the makeup of economic, policy and technology assumptions. Climate impacts increase total system costs 2-5%, while the marginal cost of energy and emissions are not affected substantially by climate change effects.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Time at Temperature Abstract and Intern Poster

Current NRC regulations for BWR operations dictate that any occurrence reaching the point of Departure from Nucleate Boiling (DNB) disqualifies the use of the fuel rod for further reactor operation. That criteria does not account for duration of rate of the power increase, the corresponding effects on material properties or rewetting that may occur. Previous Anticipated Operational Occurrences (AOOs) show short durations power increase that may require limited amounts of heat removal. Industrial experience has shown evidence that fuel can reach dryout yet continue to safely operate in regular reactor conditions. The gap in research into such occurrences is the motivation for a series of experiments, including this current work. Time-at-Temperature experiments aim to identify and characterize the microstructural changes in Zircaloy-2 under oxygen-free high temperatures. This work uses the FlashDSC instrument to rapidly ramp up and down the temperature of a focus ion beam (FIB) prepared large area lift-out (LALO) of Zircaloy-2 at a rate of 10,000 K/s to desired values. The focus is to characterize the microstructure evolution, if any, of Zircaloy-2 that may impact its performance under typical BWR conditions. This characterization includes analyzing grain structure and size, secondary phase particle (SPPs) size, shape, composition, and location using Transmission Electron Microscopy (TEM). Further data collection and analysis is in progress including diffraction pattern indexing and 4D STEM processing. While current results focus on the testing and characterizing unirradiated material, future plans include expansion to irradiated material to explore the effects of rapid transition rates seen in DNB and dryout conditions on irradiationg damage and defect annealing.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Transmission Interface Limits for High-Spatial Resolution Capacity Expansion Modeling

Large-scale capacity expansion models typically rely on estimates of the power transfer limits between modeled zones. Accurate estimation of these interface transfer limits (ITLs) requires modeling the underlying transmission network. Here we expand on a maximum flow optimization method that uses linearized power flow to estimate transfer limits. We apply this method to a data set of the U.S. transmission network to estimate ITLs between U.S. counties. By calculating ITLs using different subsets of the network, we evaluate how the size of the network used in the estimation affects the results. The results show diminishing returns to ITL accuracy after six hops, suggesting that a network subset can reasonably be used to approximate ITLs. The county-level estimates produced in this study will support more spatially resolved capacity expansion modeling and will help inform policy making at local and national levels.

capacity planning↗
DOE OSTI2024

Transmission Interface Limits for High-Spatial Resolution Capacity Expansion Modeling

Large-scale capacity expansion models typically rely on estimates of the power transfer limits between modeled zones. Accurate estimation of these interface transfer limits (ITLs) requires modeling the underlying transmission network. Here we expand on a maximum flow optimization method that uses linearized power flow to estimate transfer limits. We apply this method to a data set of the U.S. transmission network to estimate ITLs between U.S. counties. By calculating ITLs using different subsets of the network, we evaluate how the size of the network used in the estimation affects the results. The results show diminishing returns to ITL accuracy after six hops, suggesting that a network subset can reasonably be used to approximate ITLs. The county-level estimates produced in this study will support more spatially resolved capacity expansion modeling and will help inform policy making at local and national levels.

capacity planning↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Multi-Model Framework for Assessing Long- and Short-Term Climate Influences on the Electric Grid

Climate change influences many aspects of the electric grid, but prior work and industry practices often ignore the potential effects of changing climate, or they only consider a single effect or individual effects in isolation. Challenges vary with each grid and include adapting to long-term trends such as changing temperature and precipitation or shorter-term events such as drought or storms that could increase in frequency or intensity. Here we present a multi-model framework designed to analyze the effects of long and short-term climate impacts in combination. This framework couples capacity expansion and production cost models with hydrologic models and future climate scenario data to analyze alternative climate and energy futures at high spatial, temporal, and process resolutions. Furthermore, we constructed and evaluated the results of a suite of simulated scenarios exploring climate impacts on capacity investment and stress-tested the resulting future infrastructures using hourly dispatch modeling under alternative drought and load conditions. We demonstrate the approach through a case study of the U.S. Western Interconnection, where climate impacts depend on interactions between temperature-induced load, water availability for hydropower, technology competitiveness, and demand flexibility. Changes in 2038 generating capacity range from -8.5-16.6 GW, and changes in 2038 transmission capacity range from -1-2 GW. Capacity increases are driven by higher load from higher temperatures, while capacity reductions can be achieved in scenarios with higher future hydropower availability and increased demand flexibility. Scenarios requiring additional capacity cost an additional $\$5$-$\$17$ billion (discounted) from 2018 to 2038; however, scenarios with capacity reductions cost $\$1$-$\$18$ billion less. Stress tests on four 2038 infrastructures demonstrated that the identified systems were able to serve at least 99.999% of load and 99.96% of reserves. However, drought and unexpected high-load conditions can result in reduced capacity to respond to contingency events we did not model. Although these results are system and scenario specific, they highlight the importance of considering multiple climate change impacts simultaneously in long-term planning efforts and demonstrate a multi-model, multiscale approach that can be flexibly applied to any system and set of climate change concerns.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Representing the Future Role of Hydropower and Pumped Storage Hydropower (PSH) in Electricity Planning Tools

Existing tools for long-term electric sector planning struggle to represent hydropower's nuanced site-specific technical and operating characteristics, which depend on technical specifications as well as water management practices and regulations. As a result, long-term planning models and tools insufficiently characterize hydropower value and incentives, and they cannot fully represent the role hydropower can play in a future electricity system that could include a high penetration of variable wind and solar generation, battery storage, and other low-carbon technologies. This presentation demonstrates the culmination of a multi-year effort to enhance hydropower representations in electricity planning models at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), as part of the U.S. Department of Energy (USDOE) HydroWIRES Initiative. New modeling techniques are demonstrated using the NREL Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS), an open-access electric sector capacity expansion model used extensively in a wide range of technology deployment and integration analysis, including the 2016 USDOE Hydropower Vision. ReEDS uses a least-cost optimization approach to understand investment and operation of electricity generation, storage, and transmission technologies under future scenarios of electricity technology innovation, demand, policy, and other sectoral drivers. ReEDS was modified to better represent value and opportunities for both pumped storage hydropower (PSH) and hydropower systems without pumping. We incorporated a new national closed-loop PSH resource and cost assessment to explore new PSH deployment opportunities and added plant-level data to better represent the existing PSH fleet. New upgrade pathways enable opportunities for enhanced hydropower flexibility by adding pumps, upgrading dispatchability, increasing capacity, or increasing energy availability. The model was also modified to better represent the value of long-duration energy storage beyond diurnal time scales, allowing both hydropower and PSH to better balance energy supply and demand variations in high-renewable systems. These new features are demonstrated under reference and high-renewable futures and a range of sensitivity scenarios to understand which hydropower and PSH deployment and upgrade opportunities are the most attractive. These scenarios indicate potential for new closed-loop PSH deployment and for hydropower flexibility improvements to have important impacts on long-term electricity system emissions and economic outcomes. Increasing flexibility of the existing hydropower fleet can reduce the need to invest in new flexible grid technologies and help achieve decarbonization goals. Systems with sufficient energy storage could also be valuable for balancing seasonal differences in renewable energy availability, particularly from solar energy. The methods developed for ReEDS and subsequent scenario results reveal important considerations for future hydropower and grid system planning, and all data and code is freely available in a public code repository for use throughout the hydropower industry.

capacity expansion↗
DOE OSTI2026

Integrated System Planning: Emerging Software Requirements in the Power Industry

Power system planning software remains fragmented across organizational boundaries, with specialized tools for capacity expansion, production cost modeling, power flow, and dynamic analysis operating on incompatible data models and assumptions. This article argues that the fragmentation is not merely a technical problem but a predictable consequence of Conway's law: software architectures mirror the departmental structures within which they are developed. Regulatory milestones like Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) Order 888 formalized these divisions, but the roots trace back to the distinct engineering disciplines-mechanical, chemical, and electrical-that staffed generation and transmission planning departments in vertically integrated utilities. As the industry moves toward integrated system planning (ISP) that coordinates generation, transmission, and distribution investment decisions, the software ecosystem must evolve accordingly. We identify five categories of software requirements to enable this transition: coherent data inputs decoupled from individual applications, unified and extensible data schemas, modular component representations that support multiple abstraction levels, lifecycle management of planning datasets, and well-defined application programming interface (API) contracts that separate data exchange from algorithmic control. We examine how these requirements interact with three common workflow patterns-serial gate clearing, sequential multiapplication, and convergence oriented-and discuss the interface design principles each demands. We then outline a vision for platform-based planning architectures where specialized analytical services compose through standardized interfaces and where artificial intelligence (AI)/machine learning (ML) tools augment decision support within a disciplined software infrastructure. The practices proposed here offer a path from today's siloed tool collections toward collaborative planning ecosystems capable of handling the complexity of modern power system transformation.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Electric Vehicle Supply Equipment (EVSE) Study for Vernon County, Wisconsin [Slides]

Viroqua is a town in Wisconsin with a population of approximately 4,500. The Vernon County Energy district is a local nonprofit in Viroqua that provides energy education, individualized energy consulting and coaching to residents and businesses. They have a very good relationship with our county government and wish to support their efforts. The Vernon County government is currently working on a comprehensive plan and would like to include planning for electric vehicle (EV) charging infrastructure in the plan. They are seeking guidance on logical phases for implementation and identifying the best locations for Level 2 and Level 3 EV chargers. NREL provided technical input on strategic planning for electric vehicle (EV) adoption and electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE) expansion in Vernon County through the Clean Energy to Communities (C2C) Expert Match technical assistance program. NREL provided strategic planning support for EV expansion planning in Vernon County and siting considerations for locating EVSE.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Exploring sustainable electricity system development pathways in South America’s MERCOSUR sub-region

South America has abundant natural water and energy resources, and exploiting these resources to achieve a clean energy future is central to the continent’s economic and sustainable development objectives for the next several decades. Designing pathways to achieving this clean energy future requires better understanding the structural, techno-economic, and policy forces that may influence the future development of the electricity sector in the region. Here, we focus on an interconnected electricity system of five South American countries – Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Paraguay, and Uruguay – which represent major electricity generation, consumption, and trade dynamics in the region. We explore the implications of various forces that could shape the future composition of the power sector in the sub-region, including: evolving renewable energy cost and performance, natural gas prices, cross-border interconnection facilities, early retirement of installed hydropower, and different decarbonization goals. We use a model framework based on a power system planning platform (GridPath) to co-optimize investment and operations of generation, storage, and transmission facilities out to 2050. Our results in a Reference scenario indicate that the electricity system can maintain a relatively clean energy portfolio by leveraging existing hydropower capacity and integrating increasingly cost-competitive wind and solar power. However, dependence on natural gas in the region is likely to remain high. A low-carbon electricity system can cost-effectively be achieved through policy interventions (e.g., renewable portfolio standards) and by diversifying investments in wind, solar, battery storage, and some new hydropower capacity. We also find that existing hydropower is critical for maintaining reliable future grid operations. Enhanced regional electricity trade, mostly based on existing interconnection capacities with nominal investment in new transmission, can significantly benefit the clean energy transition in the region.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Grid Interconnection and Renewables Deployment Related Air Quality and Human Health Benefits in Southeast Asia

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has increasingly focused on multilateral electricity trade, improved grid resiliency and modernization. These opportunities in the power sector have been studied through the ASEAN Interconnection Masterplan Studies, the most recent of which is the ASEAN Interconnection Masterplan Study III (AIMS III). AIMS III assessed four different scenarios of power system in the ASEAN countries that include a base scenario and three additional scenarios (called optimum RE, ASEAN RE, and High RE) considering different levels of deployment of renewable energy (RE) and cross-border generation and trade of electricity for three years (2025, 2030, 2040). In this work, we quantify the potential air quality and public health co-benefits of AIMS III scenarios. For a rapidly expanding, energy hungry region like SE Asia generation is power generation is expected to increase significantly. The AIMS III scenarios' capacity expansion modeling suggest that: 1) Generation nearly doubles from 2025 to 2040 in all four AIMS III scenarios; 2) Most of the increased generation is met by coal in all four AIMS III scenarios; 3) While renewables generation increases in all four AIMS III scenarios, the fraction of total generation (its share) generally decreases because of the much greater increase in non-renewable sources, mostly coal. Only in the High RE Target scenario do renewables represent a higher share in 2040 than in 2025, though even here it is at the expense of natural gas rather than coal; 4) As a result, emissions of gaseous and aerosol pollutants increase significantly in all scenarios. Because emissions increase in 2040 compared to 2025 for all four AIMS III scenarios, so do PM2.5 concentrations. Even for the High RE Target scenario (the scenario with highest share of renewable energy), compared to the Base scenario in 2025, in 2040 PM2.5 concentrations are higher. Compared to the Base scenario in the same years, the Optimum RE and ASEAN RE Target scenarios do not differ very much from the Base in terms of PM2.5 concentration. The High RE Target scenario, on the other hand, yields noticeably lower PM2.5 concentration. For example, in 2040 the population-weighted decrease in annual average PM2.5 concentration in the High RE Target scenario relative to the Base scenario is 0.5 ug m-3. Compared to the Base scenario in 2040, each of the alternative AIMS III scenarios is estimated to result in net reductions in power-sector air quality-related excess mortality in the ASEAN region. Yet there are a few countries for which the Optimum RE and ASEAN RE Target result in increases in PM2.5-related excess mortality (Thailand and Vietnam for the ASEAN RE Target scenario and Thailand for the Optimum RE scenario). However, for the High RE Target scenario, all countries benefit and find reductions in excess mortality resulting from the power sector scenarios modeled in AIMS III with regionwide mortality decreasing by 16,000 compared to the Base scenario in 2040. In summary, our analysis finds that changing power generation emissions is a crucial lever for improving public health in ASEAN member countries and provides a pathway for policymakers to make decision backed by a realistic power sector expansion and air quality analyses.

air quality↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evolving Competitive Markets in SAPP: Leveraging Competitive Wholesale Electricity Markets to Drive Renewable Generation Capacity in the Southern African Power Pool (SAPP)

The SADC region has significant natural resource potential to increase renewable energy generation, improve electricity reliability, and support economic development. This research finds an apparent lack of confidence from electricity infrastructure investors in SAPP wholesale electricity markets, which increases risk perception and lowers the likelihood of capital deployment. With respect to free market fundamentals, competitive market obstacles and renewable energy development obstacles are characterized. Stakeholders identified the top obstacles to well-functioning competitive markets as insufficient transmission infrastructure for interconnection and regional movement of electricity, dominance of national single-buyer markets, and lack of or weak nation-state regulatory frameworks. Stakeholders prioritized the top three obstacles for renewable energy development as a lack of viable commercial arrangements for variable renewable energy (VRE) balancing, lack of functional and consistent nation-level regulations, and higher project costs related to reliance on imported equipment. With respect to potential solution options, stakeholders prioritized the development of new cost allocation and finance methods to facilitate new transmission expansion, training to educate new or potential new market entrants on SAPP processes, as well as modeling and analysis of regional SAPP participation benefits disaggregated to the nation-state level. From these perspectives, this research identified strategy options for consideration including transitioning SAPP to a regional transmission operator (RTO) for operation and planning of cross-border transmission facilities and market administration, shifting operations of SAPP member transmission systems to Independent System Operators (ISOs), establishing a regional regulatory authority and enhancing market data transparency. Implementing these reforms is expected to be challenging, but not insurmountable, given the domestic political, legal, and jurisdictional complexities of the SADC region.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

A control-inspired approach for energy transition planning under uncertainty

As the global carbon footprint continues to grow, many countries are implementing carbon emission reduction policies which have incentivized the expansion of low-carbon and renewable technologies. However, the speed and scale of deployment falls short of that needed to meet climate goals. Energy system models serve as key tools for guiding investment decisions and helping policymakers evaluate the effects of various policies on the development of an energy system. This study focuses on the energy system of the United States and builds upon prior work by incorporating more geographic granularity to account for the trade of commodities and addresses transmission congestion through electricity price adjustments. Furthermore, real-world characteristics, such as delays in constructing new liquid fuel production and electricity generation facilities, are integrated using a sequential decision-making approach that better reflects how decisions can be updated as uncertainties unfold. Results demonstrate that stochastic programming combined with sequential decision-making produces energy transition pathways that are robust to multiple uncertain futures. Additionally, considering real-world characteristics significantly impacts the deployment of renewable technologies and the ability to meet carbon emission reduction goals while also reliably meeting demand. These findings highlight the importance of accounting for uncertainty and real-world characteristics to avoid overly optimistic projections in energy system planning.

energy systems↗
DOE OSTI2024

National Transmission Planning Study - Chapter 5: Stress Analysis for 2035 Scenarios

The National Transmission Planning Study (NTP Study) is presented as a collection of six chapters, each of which is listed next. The NTP Study was led by the U.S. Department of Energy's Grid Deployment Office, in partnership with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. Chapter 5: Stress Analysis for 2035 Scenarios (this chapter) outlines how the future transmission expansions perform under stress tests.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Retail Rate Projections for Long-Term Electricity System Models

Electricity prices reported in most electricity-system planning studies leave out many price components and do not translate into retail rates, making it difficult to interpret how projected electricity system changes will impact costs to consumers. Full transmission costs are left out of many studies; distribution and administration costs are similarly excluded or highly simplified. Here, we present a detailed bottom-up accounting method for projecting future retail electricity rates in the United States. Making the simplifying assumption that each state is served by an investor-owned utility (IOU), we translate projected generation and transmission capacity and costs from the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) capacity-expansion model into IOU balance sheet expenditures, accounting for depreciation, taxes, and the breakdown between operating and capitalized (rate-based) expenses. Distribution, administration, and intra-regional transmission costs are projected forward based on empirical trends over the past decade. Modeled bottom-up electricity rates are compared to historical rates from 2010-2019, and the sensitivity of modeled rates to a range of financing and modeling assumptions is explored. Distribution and administration rate components account for roughly 40% (4.4 ¢/kWh) of the projected national-average retail rate over 2020-2050 under central assumptions.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗