Tropical Rainfall Variability on Interannual-to-Interdecadal/Longer-Time Scales Derived from the GPCP Monthly Product
Global and large regional rainfall variations and possible long-term changes are examined using the 26-year (1979-2004) GPCP monthly dataset (Adler et al., 2003). Our emphasis is to discriminate among variations due to ENSO, volcanic events, and possible long-term climate changes in the tropics. Although the global linear change of precipitation in the data set is near zero during the time period, an increase in tropical rainfall is noted, with a weaker decrease over northern hemisphere middle latitudes. Focusing on the tropics (25degS-25degN), the data set indicates an upward trend (0.06 mm/day/decade) and a downward trend (-0.02 mm/day/decade) over tropical ocean and land, respectively. This corresponds to an about 4.9% increase (ocean) and 1.6% decrease (land) during the entire 26-year time period. Techniques are applied to isolate and quantify variations due to ENSO and two major volcanic eruptions (El Chichon, March 1982; Pinatubo, June 1991) in order to examine longer time-scale changes. The ENSO events generally do not impact the tropical total rainfall, but, of course, induce significant anomalies with opposite signs over tropical land and ocean. The impact of the two volcanic eruptions is estimated to be about a 5% reduction in tropical rainfall over both land and ocean. A modified data set (with ENSO and volcano effects removed) retains the same approximate linear change slopes, but with reduced variance, thereby increasing the confidence levels associated with the long-term rainfall changes in the tropics 2