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NASA NTRS2011

Intraseasonal Variations in Tropical Energy Balance: Relevance to Climate Sensitivity?

Intraseasonal variability of deep convection represents a fundamental mode of organization for tropical convection. While most studies of intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs) have focused on the spatial propagation and dynamics of convectively coupled circulations, here we examine the projection of ISOs on the tropically-averaged heat and moisture budget. One unresolved question concerns the degree to which observable variations in the "fast" processes (e.g. convection, radiative / turbulent fluxes) can inform our understanding of feedback mechanisms operable in the context of climate change. Our analysis use daily data from satellite observations, the Modern Era analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), and other model integrations to address these questions: (i) How are tropospheric temperature variations related to that tropical deep convection and the associated ice cloud fractional amount (ICF), ice water path (IWP), and properties of warmer liquid clouds? (ii) What role does moisture transport play vis-a-vis ocean latent heat flux in enabling the evolution of deep convection to mediate PBL - free atmospheric temperature equilibration? (iii) What affect do convectively generated upper-tropospheric clouds have on the TOA radiation budget? Our methodology is similar to that of Spencer et al., (2007 GRL ) whereby a composite time series of various quantities over 60+ ISO events is built using tropical mean tropospheric temperature signal as a reference to which the variables are related at various lag times (from -30 to +30 days). The area of interest encompasses the global oceans between 20oN/S. The increase of convective precipitation cannot be sustained by evaporation within the domain, implying strong moisture transports into the tropical ocean area. The decrease in net TOA radiation that develops after the peak in deep convective rainfall, is part of the response that constitutes a "discharge" / "recharge" mechanism that facilitates tropical heat balance maintenance on these time scales. However, water vapor and hydrologic scaling relationships for this mode of variability cast doubt on the utility of ISO variations as proxies for climate sensitivity response to external radiatively forced (e.g. greenhouse gas-induced) climate change.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Understory plant communities show resistance to drought, hurricanes, and experimental warming in a wet tropical forest

Global climate change has led to rising temperatures and to more frequent and intense climatic events, such as storms and droughts. Changes in climate and disturbance regimes can have non-additive effects on plant communities and result in complicated legacies we have yet to understand. This is especially true for tropical forests, which play a significant role in regulating global climate. We used understory vegetation data from the Tropical Responses to Altered Climate Experiment (TRACE) in Puerto Rico to evaluate how plant communities responded to climate warming and disturbance. The TRACE understory vegetation was exposed to a severe drought (2015), 2 years of experimental warming (4°C above ambient in half of the plots, 2016–2017 and 2018–2019), and two major hurricanes (Irma and María, September 2017). Woody seedlings and saplings were censused yearly from 2015 to 2019, with an additional census in 2015 after the drought ended. We evaluated disturbance-driven changes in species richness, diversity, and composition across ontogeny. We then used Bayesian predictive trait modeling to assess how species responded to disturbance and how this might influence the functional structure of the plant community. Our results show decreased seedling richness after hurricane disturbance, as well as increased sapling richness and diversity after warming. We found a shift in species composition through time for both seedlings and saplings, yet the individual effects of each disturbance were not significant. At both ontogenetic stages, we observed about twice as many species responding to experimental warming as those responding to drought and hurricanes. Predicted changes in functional structure point to disturbance-driven functional shifts toward a mixture of fast-growing and drought-tolerant species. Our findings demonstrate that the tropical forest understory community is more resistant to climatic stressors than expected, especially at the sapling stage. However, early signs of changes in species composition suggest that, in a warming climate with frequent droughts and hurricanes, plant communities might shift over time toward fast-growing or drought-tolerant species.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Techno-Economic Analysis of Geologically Connected Seawater Air Conditioning (GeoSWAC) Concept for District Cooling at the University of Puerto Rico at Rio Piedras

At the University of Puerto Rico at Rio Piedras, a central chilled water plant supplies cooling to several campus buildings, contributing significantly to electricity demand during daytime peak hours, particularly in the summer months. These operational challenges are exacerbated by Puerto Rico's tropical rainforest climate and a power grid vulnerable to frequent disruptions caused by hurricanes and tropical storms. This study presents a techno-economic analysis of the existing chilled water plant serving four representative campus buildings and introduces a conceptual alternative: the Geologically connected Seawater Air Conditioning (GeoSWAC) system. GeoSWAC leverages stable low temperatures of deep ocean water (~1 km depth), hydraulically connected to an inland well, to deliver cooling without the use of vapor-compression refrigeration. Using modeled annual cooling loads and chiller performance data, capital costs, energy consumption, and levelized cost of cooling (LCOC) were evaluated for both systems. While GeoSWAC showed higher capital costs than the chiller-based scenario, operational costs were significantly lower at $26k-$53k annually, resulting in a lower LCOC between $2.3/MWh and $8.2/MWh compared to $30.2/MWh-$33.6/MWh for the chiller scenario. These results suggest that the GeoSWAC system offers a promising, low-energy, and climate-resilient alternative for large-scale cooling in tropical coastal environments, with significant potential to reduce peak electricity demand and improve long-term system reliability.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Techno-Economic Analysis of Geologically Connected Seawater Air Conditioning (GeoSWAC) Concept for District Cooling at the University of Puerto Rico at Rio Piedras: Preprint

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS2014

Characteristics of Tropical Cyclones in High-resolution Models in the Present Climate

The global characteristics of tropical cyclones (TCs) simulated by several climate models are analyzed and compared with observations. The global climate models were forced by the same sea surface temperature (SST) fields in two types of experiments, using climatological SST and interannually varying SST. TC tracks and intensities are derived from each model's output fields by the group who ran that model, using their own preferred tracking scheme; the study considers the combination of model and tracking scheme as a single modeling system, and compares the properties derived from the different systems. Overall, the observed geographic distribution of global TC frequency was reasonably well reproduced. As expected, with the exception of one model, intensities of the simulated TC were lower than in observations, to a degree that varies considerably across models.

Tropical Cyclones↗

DOE OSTI2021

Leaf turgor loss point shapes local and regional distributions of evergreen but not deciduous tropical trees

Summary The effects of climate change on tropical forests will depend on how diverse tropical tree species respond to drought. Current distributions of evergreen and deciduous tree species across local and regional moisture gradients reflect their ability to tolerate drought stress, and might be explained by functional traits. We measured leaf water potential at turgor loss (i.e. ‘wilting point’; π tlp ), wood density (WD) and leaf mass per area (LMA) on 50 of the most abundant tree species in central Panama. We then tested their ability to explain distributions of evergreen and deciduous species within a 50 ha plot on Barro Colorado Island and across a 70 km rainfall gradient spanning the Isthmus of Panama. Among evergreen trees, species with lower π tlp were associated with drier habitats, with π tlp explaining 28% and 32% of habitat association on local and regional scales, respectively, greatly exceeding the predictive power of WD and LMA. In contrast, π tlp did not predict habitat associations among deciduous species. Across spatial scales, π tlp is a useful indicator of habitat preference for tropical tree species that retain their leaves during periods of water stress, and holds the potential to predict vegetation responses to climate change.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1999

Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission

Tropical rainfall affects the lives and economics of a majority of the Earth's population. Tropical rain systems, such as hurricanes, typhoons, and monsoons, are crucial to sustaining the livelihoods of those living in the tropics. Excess rainfall can cause floods and great property and crop damage, whereas too little rainfall can cause drought and crop failure. The latent heat release during the process of precipitation is a major source of energy that drives the atmospheric circulation. This latent heat can intensify weather systems, affecting weather thousands of kilometers away, thus making tropical rainfall an important indicator of atmospheric circulation and short-term climate change. Tropical forests and the underlying soils are major sources of many of the atmosphere's trace constituents. Together, the forests and the atmosphere act as a water-energy regulating system. Most of the rainfall is returned to the atmosphere through evaporation and transpiration, and the atmospheric trace constituents take part in the recycling process. Hence, the hydrological cycle provides a direct link between tropical rainfall and the global cycles of carbon, nitrogen, and sulfur, all important trace materials for the Earth's system. Because rainfall is such an important component in the interactions between the ocean, atmosphere, land, and the biosphere, accurate measurements of rainfall are crucial to understanding the workings of the Earth-atmosphere system. The large spatial and temporal variability of rainfall systems, however, poses a major challenge to estimating global rainfall. So far, there has been a lack of rain gauge networks, especially over the oceans, which points to satellite measurement as the only means by which global observation of rainfall can be made. The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), jointly sponsored by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) of the United States and the National Space Development Agency (NASDA) of Japan, provides visible, infrared, and microwave observations of tropical and subtropical rain systems.The satellite observations are complemented by ground radar and rain gauge measurements to validate satellite rain estimation techniques. Goddard Space Flight Center's involvement includes the observatory, four instruments, integration and testing of the observatory, data processing and distribution, and satellite operations. TRMM has a design lifetime of three years. Data generated from TRMM and archived at the GDAAC are useful not only for hydrologists, atmospheric scientists, and climatologists, but also for the health community studying infectious diseases, the ocean research community, and the agricultural community.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS2004

Warm Rain Processes Over the Tropical Oceans and Implications on Climate Change

In this talk, we will first show results from TRMM regarding the characteristics of warm rains over the tropical oceans, and the dependence of rate of warm rain production on sea surface temperature. Results lead to the hypothesis that warm rain production efficiency, i.e., autoconversion, may be increased in a warm climate. We use the GEOS-II GCM to test this hypothesis. Our modeling results show that in a climate with increased rate of autoconversion, the total rain amount is increased, with warm rain contributing to a larger portion of the increase. The abundant rainout of warm precipitation at middle to low levels causes a reduction of high cloud cover due to the depletion of water available for ice-phase rain production. As a result, more isolated, but more intense penetrative convection develops. Results also show that increased autoconversion reduces the convective adjustment time scale tends, implying a faster recycling of atmospheric water. Most interestingly, the increased low level heating associated with warm rain leads to more energetic Madden and Julian oscillations in the tropics, with well-defined eastward propagation. While reducing the autoconversion leads to an abundant mix of westward and eastward tropical disturbance on daily to weekly time scales. The causes of the sensitivity of the dynamical regimes to the microphysics parameterization in the GCM will be discussed.

Lau, William K. M.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Characteristics of Tropical Cyclones in High-Resolution Models of the Present Climate

The global characteristics of tropical cyclones (TCs) simulated by several climate models are analyzed and compared with observations. The global climate models were forced by the same sea surface temperature (SST) in two types of experiments, using a climatological SST and interannually varying SST. TC tracks and intensities are derived from each model's output fields by the group who ran that model, using their own preferred tracking scheme; the study considers the combination of model and tracking scheme as a single modeling system, and compares the properties derived from the different systems. Overall, the observed geographic distribution of global TC frequency was reasonably well reproduced. As expected, with the exception of one model, intensities of the simulated TC were lower than in observations, to a degree that varies considerably across models.

Typical Cyclone↗

NASA NTRS2013

Tropical Ocean Surface Energy Balance Variability: Linking Weather to Climate Scales

Radiative and turbulent surface exchanges of heat and moisture across the atmosphere-ocean interface are fundamental components of the Earth s energy and water balance. Characterizing the spatiotemporal variability of these exchanges of heat and moisture is critical to understanding the global water and energy cycle variations, quantifying atmosphere-ocean feedbacks, and improving model predictability. These fluxes are integral components to tropical ocean-atmosphere variability; they can drive ocean mixed layer variations and modify the atmospheric boundary layer properties including moist static stability, thereby influencing larger-scale tropical dynamics. Non-parametric cluster-based classification of atmospheric and ocean surface properties has shown an ability to identify coherent weather regimes, each typically associated with similar properties and processes. Using satellite-based observational radiative and turbulent energy flux products, this study investigates the relationship between these weather states and surface energy processes within the context of tropical climate variability. Investigations of surface energy variations accompanying intraseasonal and interannual tropical variability often use composite-based analyses of the mean quantities of interest. Here, a similar compositing technique is employed, but the focus is on the distribution of the heat and moisture fluxes within their weather regimes. Are the observed changes in surface energy components dominated by changes in the frequency of the weather regimes or through changes in the associated fluxes within those regimes? It is this question that the presented work intends to address. The distribution of the surface heat and moisture fluxes is evaluated for both normal and non-normal states. By examining both phases of the climatic oscillations, the symmetry of energy and water cycle responses are considered.

Roberts, J. Brent↗

DOE OSTI2021

Observed Global Increases in Tropical Cyclone-Induced Ocean Cooling and Primary Production

Tropical cyclones (TC) provide an important source of mixing for the upper ocean, bringing cold, nutrient-rich water to the surface and triggering phytoplankton blooms. TCs are changing in response to global warming, yet the impacts of those changes on the upper ocean are poorly known. Here we show a significant increasing trend in global TC-induced sea surface temperature (SST) cooling of 0.054oC per decade since 1982. The enhanced cooling has been driven primarily by an increase in the intensity of strong TCs (maximum wind speed > 33 m s-1) and associated strengthening of TC-induced mixing. Consistent with the enhanced mixing and SST cooling, we find a significant increase in TC-induced surface chlorophyll-a concentration of 3.7 x 10-3 mg m-3 per decade in oligotrophic areas. This enhancement of oceanic primary production by TCs is expected to partially offset its projected global decline under climate change.

Dac Da, Nguyen↗

NASA NTRS1993

The influence of tropical heating displacements on the extratropical climate

The hypothesis is advanced that a latitudinal shift in the tropical convective heating pattern can significantly alter temperatures in the extratropics. Results of a simplified general circulation model (GCM) show that the shift of a prescribed tropical heating toward the summer pole, on time scales longer than a few weeks, leads to a more intense cross-equatorial 'winter' Hadley circulation, enhanced upper-level tropical easterlies, and a slightly stronger subtropical winter jet, accompanied by warming at the winter middle and high latitudes as a result of increased dynamical heating. The indications are that there is a robust connection between the net dynamic heating in the extratropics and the implied changes in the subtropical wind shear resulting from adjustments in the Hadley circulation associated with convective heating displacements in the tropics. The implications are that (1) the low-frequency temporal variability in the Hadley circulation may play an important role in modulating wave transport in the winter extratropics, (2) the global climate may be sensitive to those processes that control deep cumulus convection in the tropics, and (3) systematic temperature biases in GCMs may be reduced by improving the tropical rainfall simulation.

Hou, Arthur Y.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Warm Rain Processes over the Tropical Oceans and Implications on Climate Change: Results from TRMM and GEOS GCM

In this talk, we will first show results from TRMM data regarding the characteristics of warm rains over the tropical oceans, and the dependence of rate of warm rain production on sea surface temperature. Results lead to the hypothesis that warm rain production efficiency, i.e., autoconversion, may be increased in a warm climate. We use the GEOS-II GCM to test this hypothesis. Our modeling results show that in a climate with increased rate of autoconversion, the total rain amount is increased, with warm rain contributing to larger portion of the increase. The abundant rainout of warm precipitation causes a reduction of low and middle cloud amount due to rainout, and reduced high clouds due to less water vapor available for ice-phase convection. However, clod radiation feedback caused by the increased rainfall efficiency, leads to differential vertical heating/cooling producing a more unstable atmosphere, allowing, more intense, but isolated penetrative convection, with contracted anvils to develop. Results also show that increased autoconversion reduces the convective adjustment time scale, resulting in faster recycling of atmospheric water. Most interestingly, the increased low level heating associated with warm rain leads to more energetic Madden and Julian oscillations in the tropics, with well-defined eastward propagation. While reducing the autoconversion leads to an abundant mix of westward and eastward tropical disturbances on daily to weekly time scales. The crucial link of precipitation microphysical processes to climate change including the effects of aerosols will be discussed.

Lau, William K. M.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Warm Rain Processes Over the Tropical Oceans and Implications on Climate Change: Results from TRMM and GOES GCM

In this talk, we will first show results from TRMM data regarding the characteristics of warm rains over the tropical oceans, and the dependence of rate of warm rain production on sea surface temperature. Results lead to the hypothesis that warm rain production efficiency, i.e., autoconversion, may be increased in a warm climate. We use the GEOS-II GCM to test this hypothesis. Our modeling results show that in a climate with increased rate of autoconversion, the total rain amount is increased, with warm rain contributing to a larger portion of the increase. The abundant rainout of warm precipitation causes a reduction of low and middle cloud amount due to rainout, and reduced high clouds due to less water vapor available for ice-phase convection. However, clod radiation feedback caused by the increased rainfall efficiency, leads to differential vertical heating/cooling producing a more unstable atmosphere, allowing, more intense, but isolated penetrative convection, with contracted anvils to develop. Results also show that increased autoconversion reduces the convective adjustment time scale, resulting in faster recycling of atmospheric water. Most interestingly, the increased low level heating associated with warm rain leads to more energetic Madden and Julian oscillations in the tropics, with well-defined eastward propagation. While reducing the autoconversion leads to an abundant mix of westward and eastward tropical disturbances on daily to weekly time scales. The crucial link of precipitation microphysical processes to climate change including the effects of aerosols will be discussed.

Lau, William K. M.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Tropical Cyclones Feed More Heavy Rain in a Warmer Climate

The possible linkage of tropical cyclones (TC) to global warming is a hotly debated scientific topic, with immense societal impacts. Most of the debate has been focused on the issue of uncertainty in the use of non-research quality data for long-term trend analyses, especially with regard to TC intensity provided by TC forecasting centers. On the other hand, it is well known that TCs are associated with heavy rain during the processes of genesis and intensification, and that there are growing evidences that rainfall characteristics (not total rainfall) are most likely to be affected by global warming. Yet, satellite rainfall data have not been exploited in any recent studies of linkage between tropical cyclones (TC) and global warming. This is mostly due to the large uncertainties associated with detection of long-term trend in satellite rainfall estimates over the ocean. This problem, as we demonstrate in this paper, can be alleviated by examining rainfall distribution, rather than rainfall total. This paper is the first to use research-quality, satellite-derived rainfall from TRMM and GPCP over the tropical oceans to estimate shift in rainfall distribution during the TC season, and its relationships with TCs, and sea surface temperature (SST) in the two major ocean basins, the northern Atlantic and the northern Pacific for 1979-2005. From the rainfall distribution, we derive the TC contributions to rainfall in various extreme rainfall categories as a function to time. Our results show a definitive trend indicating that TCs are contributing increasingly to heavier rain events, i.e., intense TC's are more frequent in the last 27 years. The TC contribution to top 5% heavy rain has nearly doubled in the last two decades in the North Atlantic, and has increased by about 10% in the North Pacific. The different rate of increase in TC contribution to heavy rain may be related to the different rates of different rate of expansion of the warm pool (SST >2S0 C) area in the two oceans.

Lau, K.-M.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Enhanced interactions of Kuroshio Extension with tropical Pacific in a changing climate

Quasi-decadal climate of the Kuroshio Extension (KE) is pivotal to understanding the North Pacific coupled ocean–atmosphere dynamics and their predictability. Recent observational studies suggest that extratropical-tropical coupling between the KE and the central tropical Pacific El Niño Southern Oscillation (CP-ENSO) leads to the observed preferred decadal time-scale of Pacific climate variability. By combining reanalysis data with numerical simulations from a high-resolution climate model and a linear inverse model (LIM), we confirm that KE and CP-ENSO dynamics are linked through extratropical-tropical teleconnections. Specifically, the atmospheric response to the KE excites Meridional Modes that energize the CP-ENSO (extratropicstropics), and in turn, CP-ENSO teleconnections energize the extratropical atmospheric forcing of the KE (tropicsextratropics). However, both observations and the model show that the KE/CP-ENSO coupling is non-stationary and has intensified in recent decades after the mid-1980. Given the short length of the observational and climate model record, it is difficult to attribute this shift to anthropogenic forcing. However, using a large-ensemble of the LIM we show that the intensification in the KE/CP-ENSO coupling after the mid-1980 is significant and linked to changes in the KE atmospheric downstream response, which exhibit a stronger imprint on the subtropical winds that excite the Pacific Meridional modes and CP-ENSO.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

The Relationship Between African Easterly Waves and Tropical Cyclones in Historical and Future Climates in the HighResMIP‐PRIMAVERA Simulations

Abstract The deadly and destructive nature of tropical cyclones (TCs) makes understanding their response to future climate change of the utmost importance. TC genesis hinges on multiple factors, including an initial disturbance. African easterly waves (AEWs) have been shown to serve as such disturbances for TCs developing in the North Atlantic. It is therefore crucial to understand the relationship between AEWs and TCs and how this relationship may be affected by climate change. In this study, we examine the AEW‐TC relationship in historical and future climates using three models from the HighResMIP PRIMAVERA simulations. The AEWs and TCs were tracked in the model data using objective tracking algorithms, and AEW and TC tracks were then matched together if they were close to each other in space and time. The strength of the AEWs was measured using the eddy kinetic energy and the curvature vorticity of the waves. TC strength and intensity were measured using potential intensity and lifetime maximum 10 m windspeed. We found that future changes in the frequency of AEWs are not a good indicator of future TC activity. However, AEW strength, as well as environmental conditions conducive to strong TCs, are good indicators of AEWs that develop into TCs in both historical and future climates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Natural variability contributes to model–satellite differences in tropical tropospheric warming

Significance Climate models have, on average, simulated substantially more tropical tropospheric warming than satellite data, with few simulations matching observations. It has been suggested that this discrepancy arises because climate models are overly sensitive to greenhouse gas increases. Tropical tropospheric temperature trends from a large ensemble of simulations performed with a single climate model span a wide range that is solely due to natural climate variability. A subset of these simulations have warming rates in accord with satellite observations. Simulations with diminished tropical tropospheric warming due to climate variability exhibit characteristic patterns of surface warming that are similar to the observed record. Our results indicate that multidecadal variability can explain current model–observational differences in the rate of tropical tropospheric warming.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗