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At least 127 records · Page 7

Predicting Severe Duststorms

Combined human/machine forecasting technique shows promise. Severe duststorms in Great Plains forecast with fair reliability. Forecasts derived from combination of human expertise and variety of meteorological information sources, including all current and recent weather observations, standard National Meteorological Center (NMC) computer analyses for surface and upper air, and NMC 12-, 24-, 36-, and 48-hour prognostication charts generated by Limited Fine Mesh computer model.

Woicheshyn, P. M.↗

Applications of the AVE-Sesame data sets to mesoscale studies

Data collected by the lightning data concentrator are available for research. The Mark 3 McIDAS capability provides greater flexibility for the Marshall user community and serves as a model of future UW McIDAS to remote computer links. Techniques were investigated for the display of dynamic 3-D data sets. To date the most promising display technology is a polarized two CRT perspective display which allows both dynamic 3-D images and graphics presentations with full color capability. Algorithms were for the preparation and display of conventional and satellite based weather data in 3-D. These include gridding, contouring, and streamlining processors which operate on both real time and case study data bases. An upper air trajectory model was implemented which creates a display of air parcel trajectories in perspective 3-D. A subsystem for the generation of 3-D solid surface display with shading and hidden surface display with shading and hidden surface removal was tested and its products are currently being evaluated. Motion parallax introduced by moving the point of observation during display is an important depth cue, which, when added to the perspective parallax creates a very realistic appearing display.

Suomi, V. E.↗

Large-scale analysis and forecast experiments with wind data from the Seasat A scatterometer

A series of data assimilation experiments is performed to assess the impact of Seasat A satellite scatterometer (SASS) wind data on Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheric Sciences (GLAS) model forecasts. The SASS data are dealiased as part of an objective analysis system utilizing a three-pass procedure. The impact of the SASS data is evaluated with and without temperature soundings from the NOAA 4 Vertical Temperature Profile Radiometer (VTPR) instrument in order to study possible redundancy between surface wind data and upper air temperature data. In the northern hemisphere the SASS data are generally found to have a negligible effect on the forecasts. In the southern hemisphere the forecast impact from SASS data is somewhat larger and primarily beneficial in the absence of VTPR data. However, the inclusion of VTPR data effectively eliminates the positive impact over Australia and South America. This indicates that SASS data can be beneficial for numerical weather prediction in regions with large data gaps, but in the presence of satellite soundings the usefulness of SASS data is significantly reduced.

Baker, W. E.↗

Use of satellite soundings and imagery for nowcasting and very-short-range forecasting

Examples of GOES-East satellite imagery and sounding channel information are used to show how atmospheric behavior in the vicinity of intense mesoscale weather events can be analyzed. Mesoscale spatial and temporal information on atmospheric thermal structure and moisture distribution can be determined using satellite sounding and multispectral image data. Clouds and cloud patterns in a satellite image or animated series of images represent the integrated effect of ongoing dynamic and thermodynamic processes in the atmosphere. When information from satellite data is combined with radar, surface and upper air observations, important processes in storm development can be better understood.

Purdom, J. F. W.↗

An observational study of a mesoscale area of convection under weak synoptic-scale forcing

This is a case study of a mesoscale area of convection which began at night over western Kansas on September 2, 1982 and lasted until the afternoon of September 3. Evidence from analyses of surface, upper-air radar, and satellite observations suggests that the thunderstorms probably formed in response to the lifting of an elevated layer of conditional instability. The lifting can be attributed qualitatively to quasi-geostrophic ascending motion resulting from a shallow layer of warm advection near 60 kPa. Two possible sources of moisture were midlevel moisture which had been advected around an upstream ridge and a localized area of turbulent transport of water vapor from below. The convective event could not have been forecast with synoptic-scale, mandatory-level analyses alone; it was difficult to explain even with detailed analyses at other levels.

Bluestein, H. B.↗

Vertical displacement of the mid-tropospheric water vapor boundary in the tropics derived from the VISSR Atmospheric Sounder (VAS) 6.7-micron channel

A technique for locating areas of upward or downward motion of the upper boundary of the midtropospheric water-vapor envelope over tropical oceans on the basis of GOES Visible/IR Spin-Scan Radiometer (VISSR) Atmospheric Sounder (VAS) 6.7-micron brightness temperatures is developed and demonstrated. The technique employs an analogy to the method developed by Schoeberl and Krueger (1983) for the bottom of the ozone layer and depends on the relationship investigated by Chesters and Uccellini (1982) between 6.7-micron brightness temperature and the pressure of the water-vapor upper boundary. The results of analysis of VAS data for the North Atlantic (20-40 deg N and 35-75 deg W) on September 5-7, 1982, are presented in maps which are shown to be physically consistent and in agreement with conventional upper-air measurements. Refinement of the method to account for horizontal advection and diffusion is suggested.

Stout, J.↗

Profiles of temperature and density based on extremes at 5, 10, 20, 30 and 40 km

Information on the vertical distribution of expected extremes of temperature and density are required for the design and operation of systems traversing the atmosphere. Such data are particularly important at altitudes from the surface to approximately 80 km for developing all types of airborne vehicles ranging from helicopters and airplanes to sophisticated aerospace systems. Vertical profiles of temperature and density have been developed based on 1- and 10-percent hot and cold temperatures and 1- and 10- percent high and low densities occurring during the most severe month at the worst locations for which reliable upper-air data are available. The model profiles, from the surface to 80 km, are based on extremes that occur at 5, 10, 20, 30, and 40 km. There are 20 profiles for extreme temperatures (5 levels by 4 percentiles) that include associated densities, and 20 analogous profiles for extreme densities including associated temperatures. Consequently, a set of realistic profiles (rather than envelopes) of temperature and density, associated with extremes at each of 5 specified levels in the troposphere and stratosphere, are now available for altitudes up to 80 km.

Kantor, A. J.↗

The 4-5 day mode oscillation in zonal winds of Indian middle atmosphere during MONEX-79

In the early studies based on time series of balloon observations, the existence of 4 to 5 day period waves and 10 to 20 day wind fluctuations were found in the tropical lower stratosphere, and they are identified theoretically as the mixed Rossby-gravity wave and the Kelvin wave, respectively. On the basis of these studies, it was established that the vertically propagating equatorial waves play an important role in producing the QBO (quasi-biennial oscillation) in the mean zonal wind through the mechanism of wave-zonal interaction. These studies are mainly concentrated over the equatorial Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. Similar prominent wave disturbances have been observed over the region east of the Indian Ocean during a quasi-biennial oscillation. Zonal winds in upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (10 to 20) km of the middle atmosphere over the Indian subcontinent may bear association with the activity of summer monsoon (June-September). Monsoon Experiment (MONEX-79) has provided upper air observations at Balasore (21 deg. 30 min.N; 85 deg. 56 min.E), during the peak of monsoon months July and August. A unique opportunity has, therefore, been provided to study the normal oscillations present in the zonal winds of lower middle atmosphere over India, which may have implication on large scale wave dynamics. This aspect is examined in the present study.

Reddy, R. S.↗

Forecast skill impact of drifting buoys in the Southern Hemisphere

Two analyses are performed to evaluate the effect of drift buoys and the FGGE's special observing system (SOS) on forecasting. The FGGE analysis utilizes all level II-b conventional and special data, and the Nosat analysis employs only surface and conventional upper air data. Twelve five-day forecasts are produced from these data. An additional experiment utilizing the FGGE data base minus buoys data, and the Nosat data base including buoys data is being conducted. The forecasts are compared and synoptic evaluation of the effect of buoys data is described. The results reveal that the FGGE data base with the SOS significantly improves forecasting in the Southern Hemisphere and the loss of buoys data does not have a great effect on forecasting. The Nosat data has less impact on forecasting; however, the addition of buoys data provides an improvement in forecast skills.

Kalnay, E.↗

Dynamics and energetics of the South Pacific Convergence Zone during FGGE SOP-1

The major research objectives are to diagnose the physical processes responsible for the maintenance of the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) and to examine the role of the SPCZ in the large-scale circulation patterns of the Southern Hemisphere. To accomplish these objectives researchers used several data sources which include: a modified set of Level III-b upper air analyses, originally produced by ECMWF (Vincent, 1982); subjectively analyzed surface analyses for the South Pacific based on island station reports (Vincent, 1985); outgoing longwave radiation values supplied to us by NOAA/NESDIS; and equivalent black body temperatures and precipitation rates derived by Robertson. In the past year researchers found that wave number four plays an inportant role in the Southern Hemisphere tropics during the 15-day period when the sPCZ was a dominant feature, particularly with regard to the baroclinic conversion of potential to kinetic energy (Huang and Vincent, 1985). The convectively-active SPCZ area was found to make a significant contribution to this conversion process; thus, it appears that baroclinic effects and latent heating are important in maintaining the SPCZ. Recently efforts concentrated on two research tasks, an examination of cyclone activity within the SPCZ (Kann, 1985; Vincent, 1985; Vincent and Kann, 1985) and a study of the heat and moisture budgets in the South Pacific (Miller, et al., 1985). It was found that cyclonic disturbances occurred with regularity in the Zone from 10 to 17 January.

Vincent, D. G.↗

Detection of rotating thunderstorms using satellite imagery

In the case of the Carolina tornadoes, researchers prepared visible and IR GOES imagery covering the period 2000 Z when the storm entered South Carolina from Georgia until it exited North Carolina at 0200 Z into Virginia. The GOES IR imagery clearly demonstrated that this storm was imbedded in a continuously propagating mesolow with a well defined cold dome. The ground damage track paralleled exactly with the cold dome throughout the storm's life across the Carolinas. There were no advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) data during the period to allow researchers to inspect the cloud top for warm temperature anomalies. The Carolina storm did exhibit rightward deviating outflow which was oriented about 60 degrees to the 300 mb streamlines. The tornadoes of April 27, 1984 were part of a tornado producing cold front which stretched from Oklahoma to Minnesota. As the front moved eastward it touched off numerous tornadoes in eastern Wisconsin. GOES imagery for this data was prepared and it was strikingly clear that all along the North-South oriented squall line, the individual tunderstorms had cirrus plumes which had remarkable right deviation to the upper air flow. Unlike the Carolina long track supercell cell-mesolow system, these storms were isolated individual thunderstorms which touched off at least 16 tornadoes in eastern Wisconsin stretching from the Milwaukee area on the south to Vilas County in the north. The monster tornado of June 8, 1984 which leveled 90 percent of the village of Barneveld, Wisconsin and killed 9 persons is also discussed.

Anderson, C. E.↗

Ozone, jet streaks, and severe weather

Data obtained with the total ozone mapping spectrometer (TOMS) onboard the Nimbus-7 satellite are presented. An attempt is made to relate and synthesize TOMS data with conventional radiosonde analyses and with midtropospheric moisture data available from the VISSR onboard the GOES. Case studies are described which relate the potential vorticity structure of the upper troposphere to the total ozone distribution as measured by TOMS. Cyclogenesis, frontogenesis, and the formation of severe weather outbreaks are then related to jet streaks and their characteristic ozone signature. It is shown that the primary maxima of ozone and potential vorticity are associated with cold advection and subsidence in the main upper-air trough as suggested earlier. The secondary maxima of the three quantities diagnosed in the present work appear in the left front quadrant of a jet streak, revealing the importance of transverse, secondary motions induced by a jet streak above the level of maximum winds in further modifying the potential vorticity and ozone structures.

Sechrist, F. S.↗

Tropical storm Flossie and the Ark Royal storm

The development of the tropical storm Flossie north of Scotland on September 16-17, 1978 from the Ark Royal storm is described. Land, marine, upper air data, satellite imagery, Seasat scatterometer (SASS) wind data, and SMMR moisture data were utilized to analyze the storms' development. The factors which contributed to the formation of the Ark Royal storm are discussed. Isobaric surface charts, isotachs and streamlines of the SASS winds, and SMMR water vapor contours are provided.

Peteherych, S.↗

Impact of satellite-based data on FGGE general circulation statistics

The NASA Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres (GLA) analysis/forecast system was run in two different parallel modes in order to evaluate the influence that data from satellites and other FGGE observation platforms can have on analyses of large scale circulation; in the first mode, data from all observation systems were used, while in the second only conventional upper air and surface reports were used. The GLA model was also integrated for the same period without insertion of any data; an independent objective analysis based only on rawinsonde and pilot balloon data is also performed. A small decrease in the vigor of the general circulation is noted to follow from the inclusion of satellite observations.

Salstein, David A.↗

The Arctic tropopause fold

Analyses of research-aircraft observations, satellite total-columnar-ozone retrievals, and synoptic upper-air soundings are used to describe the structure of Arctic jetstreams and their associated frontal zones and tropopause folds. These analyses document the presence of major tropopause folding events within the Arctic that occur at the flanks of large-scale (about 2000 km) polar vortices. One example shows a solar vortex and its associated tropopause fold and Arctic front that migrated from the high Canadian Arctic southward into midlatitudes over central North America. Total columnar ozone measurements from the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer are shown to identify the location of polar vortices and the mesoscale (about 200 km) ozone gradients at the flanks of these vortices, which coincide with regions of Arctic tropopause folding and associated stratospheric-tropospheric exchange processes.

Shapiro, M. A.↗

Operational implications of a cloud model simulation of space shuttle exhaust clouds in different atmospheric conditions

A three-dimensional cloud model was used to characterize the dominant influence of the environment on the Space Shuttle exhaust cloud. The model was modified to accept the actual heat and moisture from rocket exhausts and deluge water as initial conditions. An upper-air sounding determined the ambient atmosphere in which the cloud would grow. The model was validated by comparing simulated clouds with observed clouds from four actual Shuttle launches. Results are discussed with operational weather forecasters in mind. The model successfully produced clouds with dimensions, rise, decay, liquid water contents, and vertical motion fields very similar to observed clouds whose dimensions were calculated from 16 mm film frames. Once validated, the model was used in a number of different atmospheric conditions ranging from very unstable to very stable. Wind shear strongly affected the appearance of both the ground cloud and vertical column cloud. The ambient low-level atmospheric moisture governed the amount of cloud water in model clouds. Some dry atmospheres produced little or no cloud water. An empirical forecast technique for Shuttle cloud rise is presented and differences between natural atmospheric convection and exhaust clouds are discussed.

Zak, J. A.↗

A cloud model simulation of space shuttle exhaust clouds in different atmospheric conditions

A three-dimensional cloud model was used to characterize the dominant influence of the environment on the Space Shuttle exhaust cloud. The model was modified to accept the actual heat and moisture from rocket exhausts and deluge water as initial conditions. An upper-air sounding determined the ambient atmosphere in which the cloud could grow. The model was validated by comparing simulated clouds with observed clouds from four actual Shuttle launches. The model successfully produced clouds with dimensions, rise, decay, liquid water contents and vertical motion fields very similar to observed clouds whose dimensions were calculated from 16 mm film frames. Once validated, the model was used in a number of different atmospheric conditions ranging from very unstable to very stable. In moist, unstable atmospheres simulated clouds rose to about 3.5 km in the first 4 to 8 minutes then decayed. Liquid water contents ranged from 0.3 to 1.0 g kg-1 mixing ratios and vertical motions were from 2 to 10 ms-1. An inversion served both to reduce entrainment (and erosion) at the top and to prevent continued cloud rise. Even in the most unstable atmospheres, the ground cloud did not rise beyond 4 km and in stable atmospheres with strong low level inversions the cloud could be trapped below 500 m. Wind shear strongly affected the appearance of both the ground cloud and vertical column cloud. The ambient low-level atmospheric moisture governed the amount of cloud water in model clouds. Some dry atmospheres produced little or no cloud water. One case of a simulated TITAN rocket explosion is also discussed.

Chen, C.↗

Atmospheric effects on earth rotation and polar motion

The variability in the earth's rotation rate not due to known solid body tides is dominated on time scales of about four years and less by variations in global atmospheric angular momentum (M) as derived from the zonal wind distribution. Among features seen in the length of day record produced by atmospheric forcing are the strong seasonal cycle, quasi-periodic fluctuations around 40-50 days, and an interannual signal forced by a strong Pacific warming event known as the El Nino. Momentum variations associated with these time scales arise in different latitudinal regions. Furthermore, winds in the stratosphere make a particularly important contribution to seasonal variability. Other related topics discussed here are: (1) comparisons of the M series from wind fields produced at different weather centers; (2) the torques that dynamically link the atmosphere and earth; and (3) longer-term nonatmospheric effects that can be seen upon removal of the atmospheric signal.an interestigapplication for climatological purposes is the use of the historical earth rotation series as a proxy for atmospheric wind variability prior to the era of upper-air data. Lastly, results pertaining to the role of atmospheric pressure systems in exciting rapid polar motion are presented.

Salstein, David A.↗