Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Variability in the North Atlantic”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 127 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluation of CloudSat Radiative Kernels Using ARM and CERES Observations and ERA5 Reanalysis

Despite the widespread use of the radiative kernel technique for studying radiative feedbacks and radiative forcings, there has not been any systematic, observation-based validation of the radiative kernel method. Here, we utilize observed and reanalyzed radiative fluxes and atmospheric profiles from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program and ERA5 reanalysis to assess a set of observation-based radiative kernels from CloudSat for six ARM sites. The CloudSat radiative kernels, convoluted with the ERA5 state variables, can almost perfectly reconstruct the monthly anomalies of shortwave (SW) and longwave (LW) radiative fluxes in ERA5 at the surface (SFC) and top-of-atmosphere (TOA) with correlations significantly being greater than 0.95. The biases of kernel-estimated flux anomalies calculated using the ARM-observed state variables can be more than twice as large when compared with the ARM-observed surface flux anomalies and Clouds and Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) observed anomalies at the TOA. Generally, clouds contribute to most (>60%) of the variance of flux anomalies at Southern Great Plain (SGP), Tropical Western Pacific (TWP), and Eastern North Atlantic (ENA), and surface albedo dominates (>69%) the variance of SW flux anomalies at North Slope of Alaska (NSA). Furthermore, the radiative kernels exhibit the lowest correlation (r ~ [0.55,0.85]) when reconstructing SFC LW flux anomalies at SGP, TWP, and ENA, whose biases are related to the possibility that the kernels may not fully capture the characteristics associated with MJO and ENSO at TWP and the presence of clouds at SGP and ENA.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

An Investigation on the Spatial Dependence of Autoconversion and Accretion in Eastern North Atlantic Boundary Layer Clouds (Final Report)

In many climate models, small clouds over the ocean rain too often and too lightly. This affects the amount of water in the clouds and ultimately the area covered by clouds both of which must be predicted by climate models. This in turn impacts how much sunlight these clouds can reflect to space and ultimately has a significant impact on the Earth radiation balance and climate. The purpose of this project was to use cloud and precipitation data being collected by DOE to evaluate the spatial variability of boundary layer clouds and precipitation, and the relationships between them with a view towards improving the representation of the physics that control the generation of precipitation in models.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Warming Pattern over the Northern Hemisphere Midlatitudes in Boreal Summer 1979–2020

Abstract Significant surface air temperature warming during summer 1979–2020 is not uniformly distributed in the northern midlatitudes over land but rather is confined to several longitudinal sectors including Europe, central Siberia and Mongolia, and both coasts of North America. These hot spots are accompanied by a chain of high pressure ridges from an anomalous, circumglobal Rossby wave train in the upper troposphere. From reanalysis data and several baseline experiments from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), we find that the circulation trend pattern is associated with fluctuations of the Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) and the interdecadal Pacific oscillation. The phase shift of AMV in the 1990s is particularly noteworthy for accelerating warming averaged over the northern midlatitude land. The amplitude of the observed trend in both surface air temperature and the upper-level geopotential height generally falls beyond the range of multidecadal trends simulated by the CMIP6 preindustrial control runs, supporting the likelihood that anthropogenic forcing played a critical role in the observed trend. On the other hand, the fidelity of the simulated low-frequency modes of variability and their teleconnections, especially on multidecadal time scales, is difficult to assess because of the relatively short observational records. Our mechanistic modeling results indicate that synoptic eddy–mean flow interaction is a key to the formation of the anomalous wave train but how the multidecadal modes can modulate the synoptic eddies through atmosphere–ocean and atmosphere–land interactions remains poorly understood. This gap in our knowledge makes it challenging to quantify the roles of the low-frequency modes and external forcings in causing the observed multidecadal trends.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Retrieval of the sea spray aerosol mode from submicron particle size distributions and supermicron scattering during LASIC

Abstract. Improved quantification of sea spray aerosol concentration and size is important for determining aerosol effects on clouds and the climate, though attempts to accurately capture the size distribution of the sea spray mode remain limited by the availability of supermicron size distributions. In this work, we introduce a new approach to retrieving lognormal mode fit parameters for a sea spray aerosol mode by combining submicron size distributions with supermicron scattering measurements using a Mie inversion. Submicron size distributions were measured by an ultra-high-sensitivity aerosol spectrometer (UHSAS), and supermicron scattering was taken as the difference between <10 µm and <1 µm three-wavelength integrating nephelometer measurements (NEPH). This UHSAS-NEPH method was applied during background marine periods of the Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Layered Atlantic Smoke Interactions with Clouds (LASIC) campaign on Ascension Island (November 2016–May 2017), when the contribution of sea spray aerosol was expected to represent a large fraction of the aerosol mass and total scattering. Lognormal sea spray modal parameters were retrieved from comparisons between nephelometer measurements and a lookup table of Mie theory-simulated scattering coefficients for low-error solutions that minimized the 0.4–1 µm residual in the UHSAS size distribution. We evaluated the UHSAS-NEPH method with a set of clean marine measurements in the North Atlantic that included supermicron size and chemical measurements, showing that measured supermicron size distributions are needed to constrain the sea spray number concentration but that mass concentration was reasonably characterized using supermicron scattering. For LASIC, the UHSAS-NEPH method retrieved sea spray mode properties for approximately 88 % of the background marine times when the scattering variability and total particle concentration were low (<± 5 Mm−1 and <400 cm−3, respectively), with mass mean diameter ranging from 0.6 to 1.9 µm (1.47 ± 0.17 µm), modal width ranging from 1.1 to 3.97 (2.4±0.3), and mass concentration ranging from 0.18 to 23.0 µg m−3 (8.37. ± 4.1 µg m−3). The measured nephelometer scattering at three wavelengths was found to constrain the mode width marginally at the largest particle sizes in the absence of additional size and chemical measurements for defining parameters for the Mie solutions. Comparing UHSAS-NEPH retrievals to those of a fitting algorithm applied only to the submicron UHSAS number size distribution showed that correlations between retrieved mass concentration and the available mass-based sea spray tracers (coarse scattering, wind speed, and chloride) are low when supermicron measurements are not considered. This work demonstrates the added value of supermicron scattering measurements for retrieving reasonable sea spray mass concentrations, providing the best-available observationally constrained estimate of the sea spray mode properties when supermicron size distribution measurements are not available.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Cost of Wind Energy Review: 2024 Edition [Slides]

The primary elements of this analysis include: Estimated LCOE for (1) a representative land-based wind energy project installed in a moderate wind resource in the United States, (2) a representative fixed-bottom offshore wind energy project installed in the U.S. North Atlantic, and (3) a representative floating offshore wind energy project installed off the U.S. Pacific Coast. It also updates the LCOE estimates for representative residential-, commercial-, and large-scale distributed wind projects installed in a moderate wind resource in the United States. A sensitivity analyses is included that shows the range of effects that basic LCOE variables could have on the cost of wind energy for land-based and offshore wind projects and provides updated Fiscal Year 2024 values for land-based and offshore wind energy used for Government Performance and Results Act (GPRA) reporting and illustrated progress toward established GPRA targets.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

ARM Aerial Facility (AAF) Merged Value-Added Product Report for Historical G-1 Field Campaigns

For 30 years, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Science supported an instrumented Grumman Gulfstream-1 (G-1) aircraft for atmospheric field campaigns. Data from the final decade of G-1 operations were archived by the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility Data Center (ADC) and made publicly available at no cost to all registered users. To ensure a consistent data format and to improve the accessibility of the ARM airborne data, an integrated data set was recently developed covering the final six years of G-1 operations (2013 to 2018). The integrated data set includes data collected from 236 flights (766.4 hours). Four of the seven field campaigns were based in the U.S. One campaign collected data from the wildfires in the U.S. Pacific Northwest and agricultural burns in the lower Mississippi River valley as part of the Biomass Burning Observation Project (BBOP) in 2013. In 2015, the ARM Cloud Aerosol Precipitation Experiment provided data on atmospheric rivers and associated aerosol-cloud interactions that produce heavy precipitation on the U.S. west coast during the early spring. Research data from Airborne Carbon Measurements-V (ACME-V), collected during the summer of 2015, gave scientists insight into trends and variability of trace gases in the atmosphere over the North Slope of Alaska to improve arctic climate models. In the early summer and autumn of 2016, the Holistic Interactions of Shallow Clouds, Aerosols, and Land-Ecosystems (HI-SCALE) campaign provided an extensive data set geared toward coupled processes that affect the life cycle of shallow clouds through the interaction among aerosol, cloud, land surface, and ecosystems. In 2014 (March and October), the airborne sampling moved outside of the U.S. to the city of Manaus in central Amazonia, Brazil, where residential and industrial emissions were extensively characterized by flights of the G-1. The GoAmazon2014/15 aircraft campaign data are being integrated with aquatic and terrestrial ecosystem measurements to quantify anthropogenic perturbations to a usually pristine tropical environment. Another international airborne mission was carried out in the Eastern North Atlantic region. The Aerosol and Cloud Experiments in the Eastern North Atlantic (ACE-ENA) campaign saw the G-1 aircraft fly from Terceira Island in the Azores during the summer of 2017 and the winter of 2018. The campaign studied both seasons to measure key aerosol and cloud processes under various meteorological and cloud conditions with different aerosol sources. Then the G-1 deployed to the Sierras de Córdoba range in central Argentina from October to November 2018 for the Cloud, Aerosol, and Complex Terrain Interactions (CACTI) campaign to study orographic convective cloud interactions with their surrounding environment. These comprehensive datastreams provide much-needed insight into spatiotemporal variability of thermodynamic quantities, aerosol and cloud states, and properties for addressing essential science questions in Earth system process studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

ARM Aerial Facility (AAF) Merged Value-Added Product Report for Historical G-1 Field Campaigns

For 30 years, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Science supported an instrumented Grumman Gulfstream-1 (G-1) aircraft for atmospheric field campaigns. Data from the final decade of G-1 operations were archived by the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility Data Center (ADC) and made publicly available at no cost to all registered users. To ensure a consistent data format and to improve the accessibility of the ARM airborne data, an integrated data set was recently developed covering the final six years of G-1 operations (2013 to 2018). The integrated data set includes data collected from 236 flights (766.4 hours). Four of the seven field campaigns were based in the U.S. One campaign collected data from the wildfires in the U.S. Pacific Northwest and agricultural burns in the lower Mississippi River valley as part of the Biomass Burning Observation Project (BBOP) in 2013. In 2015, the ARM Cloud Aerosol Precipitation Experiment provided data on atmospheric rivers and associated aerosol-cloud interactions that produce heavy precipitation on the U.S. west coast during the early spring. Research data from Airborne Carbon Measurements-V (ACME-V), collected during the summer of 2015, gave scientists insight into trends and variability of trace gases in the atmosphere over the North Slope of Alaska to improve arctic climate models. In the early summer and autumn of 2016, the Holistic Interactions of Shallow Clouds, Aerosols, and Land-Ecosystems (HI-SCALE) campaign provided an extensive data set geared toward coupled processes that affect the life cycle of shallow clouds through the interaction among aerosol, cloud, land surface, and ecosystems. In 2014 (March and October), the airborne sampling moved outside of the U.S. to the city of Manaus in central Amazonia, Brazil, where residential and industrial emissions were extensively characterized by flights of the G-1. The GoAmazon2014/15 aircraft campaign data are being integrated with aquatic and terrestrial ecosystem measurements to quantify anthropogenic perturbations to a usually pristine tropical environment. Another international airborne mission was carried out in the Eastern North Atlantic region. The Aerosol and Cloud Experiments in the Eastern North Atlantic (ACE-ENA) campaign saw the G-1 aircraft fly from Terceira Island in the Azores during the summer of 2017 and the winter of 2018. The campaign studied both seasons to measure key aerosol and cloud processes under various meteorological and cloud conditions with different aerosol sources. Then the G-1 deployed to the Sierras de Córdoba range in central Argentina from October to November 2018 for the Cloud, Aerosol, and Complex Terrain Interactions (CACTI) campaign to study orographic convective cloud interactions with their surrounding environment. These comprehensive datastreams provide much-needed insight into spatiotemporal variability of thermodynamic quantities, aerosol and cloud states, and properties for addressing essential science questions in Earth system process studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Subseasonal Earth System Prediction with CESM2

Abstract Prediction systems to enable Earth system predictability research on the subseasonal time scale have been developed with the Community Earth System Model, version 2 (CESM2) using two configurations that differ in their atmospheric components. One system uses the Community Atmosphere Model, version 6 (CAM6) with its top near 40 km, referred to as CESM2(CAM6). The other employs the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model, version 6 (WACCM6) whose top extends to ∼140 km, and it includes fully interactive tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry [CESM2(WACCM6)]. Both systems are utilized to carry out subseasonal reforecasts for the 1999–2020 period following the Subseasonal Experiment’s (SubX) protocol. Subseasonal prediction skill from both systems is compared to those of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration CFSv2 and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) operational models. CESM2(CAM6) and CESM2(WACCM6) show very similar subseasonal prediction skill of 2-m temperature, precipitation, the Madden–Julian oscillation, and North Atlantic Oscillation to its previous version and to the NOAA CFSv2 model. Overall, skill of CESM2(CAM6) and CESM2(WACCM6) is a little lower than that of the ECMWF system. In addition to typical output provided by subseasonal prediction systems, CESM2 reforecasts provide comprehensive datasets for predictability research of multiple Earth system components, including three-dimensional output for many variables, and output specific to the mesosphere and lower-thermosphere (MLT) region from CESM2(WACCM6). It is shown that sudden stratosphere warming events, and the associated variability in the MLT, can be predicted ∼10 days in advance. Weekly real-time forecasts and reforecasts with CESM2(CAM6) and CESM2(WACCM6) are freely available. Significance Statement We describe here the design and prediction skill of two subseasonal prediction systems based on two configurations of the Community Earth System Model, version 2 (CESM2): CESM2 with the Community Atmosphere Model, version 6 [CESM2(CAM6)] and CESM 2 with Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model, version 6 [CESM2(WACCM6)] as its atmospheric component. These two systems provide a foundation for community-model based subseasonal prediction research. The CESM2(WACCM6) system provides a novel capability to explore the predictability of the stratosphere, mesosphere, and lower thermosphere. Both CESM2(CAM6) and CESM2(WACCM6) demonstrate subseasonal surface prediction skill comparable to that of the NOAA CFSv2 model, and a little lower than that of the ECMWF forecasting system. CESM2 reforecasts provide a comprehensive dataset for predictability research of multiple aspects of the Earth system, including the whole atmosphere up to 140 km, land, and sea ice. Weekly real-time forecasts, reforecasts, and models are publicly available.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Near-term tropical cyclone risk and coupled Earth system model biases

Most current climate models predict that the equatorial Pacific will evolve under greenhouse gas–induced warming to a more El Niño-like state over the next several decades, with a reduced zonal sea surface temperature gradient and weakened atmospheric Walker circulation. Yet, observations over the last 50 y show the opposite trend, toward a more La Niña-like state. Recent research provides evidence that the discrepancy cannot be dismissed as due to internal variability but rather that the models are incorrectly simulating the equatorial Pacific response to greenhouse gas warming. This implies that projections of regional tropical cyclone activity may be incorrect as well, perhaps even in the direction of change, in ways that can be understood by analogy to historical El Niño and La Niña events: North Pacific tropical cyclone projections will be too active, North Atlantic ones not active enough, for example. Other perils, including severe convective storms and droughts, will also be projected erroneously. While it can be argued that these errors are transient, such that the models’ responses to greenhouse gases may be correct in equilibrium, the transient response is relevant for climate adaptation in the next several decades. Given the urgency of understanding regional patterns of climate risk in the near term, it would be desirable to develop projections that represent a broader range of possible future tropical Pacific warming scenarios—including some in which recent historical trends continue—even if such projections cannot currently be produced using existing coupled earth system models.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2022

Understanding Predictability of Daily Southeast U.S. Precipitation Using Explainable Machine Learning

Abstract We investigate the predictability of the sign of daily southeastern U.S. (SEUS) precipitation anomalies associated with simultaneous predictors of large-scale climate variability using machine learning models. Models using index-based climate predictors and gridded fields of large-scale circulation as predictors are utilized. Logistic regression (LR) and fully connected neural networks using indices of climate phenomena as predictors produce neither accurate nor reliable predictions, indicating that the indices themselves are not good predictors. Using gridded fields as predictors, an LR and convolutional neural network (CNN) are more accurate than the index-based models. However, only the CNN can produce reliable predictions that can be used to identify forecasts of opportunity. Using explainable machine learning we identify which variables and grid points of the input fields are most relevant for confident and correct predictions in the CNN. Our results show that the local circulation is most important as represented by maximum relevance of 850-hPa geopotential heights and zonal winds to making skillful, high-probability predictions. Corresponding composite anomalies identify connections with El Niño–Southern Oscillation during winter and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and North Atlantic subtropical high during summer.

Pegion, Kathy↗
DOE OSTI2021

Climate Extremes and Variability Surrounding Chesapeake Bay: Past, Present, and Future

Measures of extreme climate variability around Chesapeake Bay have changed over the past century (1895–2014), resulting in the need to establish new baselines for understanding future change. Here, observed climate variability is compared with Coupled Model Intercomparison Project fifth assessment climate models to evaluate ensemble model skill in this region. Observed trends include annual and seasonal declines in the percentage of cold days. Similarly, increases in the annual and seasonal percentages of warm days occurred in all seasons of the North Chesapeake (>38.2°N) but were only significant in spring and summer in the South (<38.2°N) demonstrating regional differences even at local scales. Precipitation intensity increased over the past century. Models using emissions scenarios RCP4.5 and 8.5 project these trends will continue, though they have little skill in precipitation extremes. Pacific and Atlantic climate modes are generally more correlated with climate extremes than mean temperature and precipitation suggesting potential predictability in the synoptic patterns underlying the extremes. However, they also drive the need for time series at least 60-years long for establishing climate trends. This local analysis differs from regional, state level, and local 2.5° × 3.75° grid analyses, highlighting the importance of local climate assessments that consider topographic and regional weather patterns.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evaluation of liquid cloud albedo susceptibility in E3SM using coupled eastern North Atlantic surface and satellite retrievals

The impact of aerosol number concentration on cloud albedo is a persistent source of spread in global climate predictions due to multi-scale, interactive atmospheric processes that remain difficult to quantify. We use 5 years of geostationary satellite and surface retrievals at the US Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) eastern North Atlantic (ENA) site in the Azores to evaluate the representation of liquid cloud albedo susceptibility for overcast cloud scenes in the DOE Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 (E3SMv1) and provide possible reasons for model–observation discrepancies. The overall distribution of surface 0.2 % CCN concentration values is reasonably simulated, but simulated liquid water path (LWP) is lower than observed and layer mean droplet concentration (N d ) comparisons are highly variable depending on the N d retrieval technique. E3SMv1's cloud albedo is greater than observed for given LWP and N d values due to a lower cloud effective radius than observed. However, the simulated albedo response to N d is suppressed due to a correlation between the solar zenith angle (SZA) and N d created by the seasonal cycle that is not observed. Controlling for this effect by examining the cloud optical depth (COD) shows that E3SMv1's COD response to CCN concentration is greater than observed. For surface-based retrievals, this is only true after controlling for cloud adiabaticity because E3SMv1's adiabaticities are much lower than observed. Assuming a constant adiabaticity in surface retrievals as done in top-of-atmosphere (TOA) retrievals narrows the retrieved ln N d distribution, which increases the cloud albedo sensitivity to ln N d to match the TOA sensitivity. The greater sensitivity of COD to CCN is caused by a greater Twomey effect in which the sensitivity of N d to CCN is greater than observed for TOA-retrieved N d , and once model–observation cloud adiabaticity differences are removed, this is also true for surface-retrieved N d . The LWP response to N d in E3SMv1 is overall negative as observed. Despite reproducing the observed LWP–N d relationship, observed clouds become much more adiabatic as N d increases, while E3SMv1 clouds do not, associated with more heavily precipitating clouds that are partially but not completely caused by deeper clouds and weaker inversions in E3SMv1. These cloud property differences indicate that the negative LWP–N d relationship is likely not caused by the same mechanisms in E3SMv1 and observations. The negative simulated LWP response also fails to mute the excessively strong Twomey effect, highlighting potentially important confounding factor effects that likely render the LWP–N d relationship non-causal. N d retrieval scales and assumptions, particularly related to cloud adiabaticity, contribute to substantial spreads in the model–observation comparisons, though enough consistency exists to suggest that aerosol activation, drizzle, and entrainment processes are critical areas to focus E3SMv1 development for improving the fidelity of aerosol–cloud interactions in E3SM.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Modeling and observations of North Atlantic cyclones: Implications for U.S. Offshore wind energy

To meet the Biden-Harris administration's goal of deploying 30 GW of offshore wind power by 2030 and 110 GW by 2050, expansion of wind energy into U.S. territorial waters prone to tropical cyclones (TCs) and extratropical cyclones (ETCs) is essential. This requires a deeper understanding of cyclone-related risks and the development of robust, resilient offshore wind energy systems. Here, this paper provides a comprehensive review of state-of-the-science measurement and modeling capabilities for studying TCs and ETCs, and their impacts across various spatial and temporal scales. We explore measurement capabilities for environments influenced by TCs and ETCs, including near-surface and vertical profiles of critical variables that characterize these cyclones. The capabilities and limitations of Earth system and mesoscale models are assessed for their effectiveness in capturing atmosphere–ocean–wave interactions that influence TC/ETC-induced risks under a changing climate. Additionally, we discuss microscale modeling capabilities designed to bridge scale gaps from the weather scale (a few kilometers) to the turbine scale (dozens to a few meters). We also review machine learning (ML)-based, data-driven models for simulating TC/ETC events at both weather and wind turbine scales. Special attention is given to extreme metocean conditions like extreme wind gusts, rapid wind direction changes, and high waves, which pose threats to offshore wind energy infrastructure. Finally, the paper outlines the research challenges and future directions needed to enhance the resilience and design of next-generation offshore wind turbines against extreme weather conditions.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Differential Credibility of Climate Modes in CMIP6

This work quantitatively evaluates the fidelity with which the northern annular mode (NAM), southern annular mode (SAM), Pacific–North American pattern (PNA), El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO), and the first-order mode interactions are represented in Earth system model (ESM) output from the CMIP6 archive. Several skill metrics are used as part of a differential credibility assessment (DCA) of both spatial and temporal characteristics of the modes across ESMs, ESM families, and specific ESM realizations relative to ERA5. The spatial patterns and probability distributions are generally well represented but skill scores that measure the degree to which the frequencies of maximum variance are captured are consistently lower for most ESMs and climate modes. Substantial variability in skill scores manifests across realizations from individual ESMs for the PNA and oceanic modes. Further, the ESMs consistently overestimate the strength of the NAM–PNA first-order interaction and underestimate the NAM–AMO connection. Furthermore, these results suggest that the choice of ESM and ESM realizations will continue to play a critical role in determining climate projections at the global and regional scale at least in the near term.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Recent Tropical Cyclone Outer Size Increases in the Western North Atlantic

The outer size of a tropical cyclone (TC) plays a pivotal role in its impact through a modulation of wind duration, rainfall extent and storm surge. While global and basin scale trends in TC size have been examined previously, whether there have been regional changes over time remains unclear. Here, using a suite of observations and reanalyses, we detect an increasing TC outer size over the western North Atlantic during 1979–2022. Over the western subtropical North Atlantic where the largest changes are found, the area-averaged increase in the radius of 17 ms -1 winds is about 7.5% over this period. Analysis of the large-scale environment reveals that the air-sea thermodynamic state has become more favorable for storm intensification, and thereby expansion, over that region. Further, numerical model simulations link changes in the environment with those in storm size, and suggest a combination of natural variability and external forcing in driving them.

Balaguru, Karthik [Pacific Northwest National Labo↗
DOE OSTI2020

Compound Drought and Heatwaves at a Global Scale: The Role of Natural Climate Variability-Associated Synoptic Patterns and Land-Surface Energy Budget Anomalies

Compound drought and heatwave (CDHW) events have garnered much attention in recent studies. However, thus far, the identification of such events is oversimplified, and their association with natural climate variability is not fully explored. Here, we derive anomalies in the weekly self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index (sc_PDSI) and daily maximum temperatures to identify CDHW events from 1982 to 2016 over 26 climate regions across the globe. Using a Poisson Generalized Linear Model (GLM), we analyze yearly occurrences of seasonal CDHW events and their association with the warm and cold phases of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). ENSO exhibits robust association with CDHW events over the Southern Hemisphere during the austral summer and fall, while PDO influences their occurrences over the Western North America in the Northern Hemisphere during the boreal summer, which is supported by the composites of anomalies in the atmospheric circulations and surface energy budget. However, NAO association with CDHW events is relatively weak. The CDHW occurrence over other regions is driven by a combination of these large-scale natural forcing. Our analyses also highlight that the cooccurrence of weekly to submonthly scale anomalies in the observed temperature and precipitation may not be always aligned between the observations and the reanalysis. Therefore, caution must be exercised while explaining such observed anomalies on the basis of reanalysis-based circulations and surface energy budget. Lastly, our analyses provide a new insight towards concurrent extremes and should help foster research efforts in this area.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Tropical Interbasin Interaction as Effective Predictors of Late-Spring Precipitation Variability in the Southern Great Plains

Abstract The southern Great Plains experience fluctuating precipitation extremes that significantly impact agriculture and water management. Despite ongoing efforts to enhance forecast accuracy, the underlying causes of these climatic phenomena remain inadequately understood. This study elucidates the relative influence of the tropical Pacific and Atlantic basins on April–May–June precipitation variability in this region. Our partial ocean assimilation experiments using the Community Earth System Model unveil the prominent role of interbasin interaction, with the Pacific and Atlantic contributing approximately 70% and 30%, respectively, to these interbasin contrasts. Our statistical analyses suggest that these tropical interbasin contrasts could serve as a more reliable indicator for late-spring precipitation anomalies than El Niño–Southern Oscillation. The conclusions are reinforced by analyses of seven climate forecasting systems within the North American Multi-Model Ensemble, offering an optimistic outlook for enhancing real-time forecasting of late-spring precipitation in the southern plains. However, the current predictive skills of the interbasin contrasts across the prediction systems are hindered by the lower predictability of the tropical Atlantic Ocean, pointing to the need for future research to refine climate prediction models further. Significance Statement Agriculture and infrastructure in the southern plains face challenges from severe late-spring precipitation extremes. Traditional predictors like El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) lose effectiveness during the critical spring-to-summer transition, creating a forecasting gap. This study introduces the concept of tropical interbasin interactions, known to enhance seasonal predictability for late-spring precipitation in the southern plains. Novel climate model experiments highlight contributions from the tropical Pacific and Atlantic, offering a promising predictability that potentially surpasses the limitations of ENSO-based predictions. These outcomes hold the potential for developing operational forecasts of late-spring precipitation anomalies in the southern plains, enabling proactive risk management.

Chikamoto, Yoshimitsu↗
DOE OSTI2024

Surface Meteorological System (MET) Instrument Handbook

The Surface Meteorological System (MET) consist mainly of conventional in situ sensors that obtain a defined “core” set of measurements. The core set of measurements is: Barometric Pressure (kPa), Temperature (°C), Relative Humidity (%), Arithmetic-Averaged Wind Speed (m/s), Vector-Averaged Wind Speed (m/s), and Vector-Averaged Wind Direction (deg). The sensors that collect the core variables are mounted at the standard heights defined for each variable: • Winds: 10 meters • Temperature and Relative Humidity: 2 meters • Barometric Pressure: 1 meter. Depending upon the geographical location, different models and types of sensors may be used to measure the core variables due to the conditions experienced at those locations. Most sites have additional sensors that measure other variables that are unique to that site or are well suited for the climate of the location but not at others.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗