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121 records · Page 7

The Statistical Emulators of GGCMI Phase 2: Responses of Year-to-Year Variation of Crop Yield to CO 2 , Temperature, Water and Nitrogen Perturbations

Understanding the impact of climate change on year-to-year variation of crop yield is critical to global food stability and security. While crop model emulators are believed to be lightweight tools to replace the models, few emulators have been developed to capture such interannual variation of crop yield in response to climate variability. In this study, we developed a statistical emulator with a machine learning algorithm to reproduce the response of year-to-year variation of four crop yields to CO 2 (C), temperature (T), water (W), and nitrogen (N) perturbations defined in the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison Project (GGCMI) phase 2. The emulators were able to explain more than 52 % of the variance of simulated yield and performed well in capturing the year-to-year variation of global average and gridded crop yield over current croplands in the baseline. With the changes in CO 2 –temperature–water–nitrogen (CTWN) perturbations, the emulators could reproduce the year-to-year variation of crop yield well over most current cropland. The variation of R and the mean absolute error was small under the single CTWN perturbations and dual-factor perturbations. These emulators thus provide statistical response surfaces of yield, including both its mean and interannual variability, to climate factors. They could facilitate spatiotemporal downscaling of crop model simulation, projecting the changes in crop yield variability in the future and serving as a lightweight tool for multi-model ensemble simulation. The emulators enhanced the flexibility of crop yield estimates and expanded the application of large-ensemble simulations of crop yield under climate change.

Climate change↗

Synthesis of a modern/classical controller for large space structures

The paper is concerned with wide-sense stationary random vibrations of a representative large space structure subject to nonwhite excitations, and with synthesis of its controller amid modeling uncertainties due to truncated modes. Dynamics is analyzed by residue calculus in frequency domain. Steady state variance of a modal coordinate is shown to depend on, among other things, power spectral density of excitation at the modal frequency. Modal cost analysis is performed for an order reduction with a performance objective of attitude, attitude rate and energy control. Optimal and suboptimal output feedback controllers are compared. By treating deleted modes as an additive and a multiplicative perturbation in an idealized transfer function, the low frequency modes omitted according to modal cost analysis are found to cause instability. Finally, the size of the idealized model is shown to be governed by light damping and stringency in performance and stability specifications.

Hablani, H. B.↗

A class of optimum digital phase locked loops for the DSN advanced receiver

A class of optimum digital filters for digital phase locked loop of the deep space network advanced receiver is discussed. The filter minimizes a weighted combination of the variance of the random component of the phase error and the sum square of the deterministic dynamic component of phase error at the output of the numerically controlled oscillator (NCO). By varying the weighting coefficient over a suitable range of values, a wide set of filters are obtained such that, for any specified value of the equivalent loop-noise bandwidth, there corresponds a unique filter in this class. This filter thus has the property of having the best transient response over all possible filters of the same bandwidth and type. The optimum filters are also evaluated in terms of their gain margin for stability and their steady-state error performance.

Hurd, W. J.↗

Effects of Mild Hypobaric Hypoxia on Visual Field Impairment

INTRODUCTION: The primary objective of the Exploration Atmosphere (EA) study is to validate a new prebreathe protocol necessary before exposure to a suited hypobaric environment during extravehicular activity (EVA) from a habitat ‘exploration atmosphere’ of 56.5kPa (8.2 psia), 34% O2, 66% N2. Prebreathe protocols must be time and resource efficient while also controlling Decompression Sickness (DCS) risk to within acceptable limits. The habitat hypobaric exploration atmosphere also results in a mildly hypoxic environment (piO2 = 128mmHg). As a secondary objective of the EA study, we characterized the effects of 11-day exposure to a mild hypobaric hypoxic environment on visual performance. METHODS: Two, 11-day hypobaric chamber tests were performed (EA-1and EA-2, n=8 each) in NASA’s 20-foot chamber at Johnson Space Center where subjects lived in the exploration atmosphere. Subjects also underwent simulated 6-hour EVAs at 85% O2 and 29.6 kPa during EVA on days 3, 5, 7, 9, and 11. Visual acuity (VA), a measure of spatial resolution, and contrast sensitivity (CS), a measure of ability to distinguish ever finer increments of brightness, were assessed on non-EVA days by using gapped Landolt C testing. The luminance was controlled by using a booth, a light monitor, and a lighting rheostat. EA-1 data had revealed problems in lighting control impacting consistency of the data. Procedures were subsequently updated for the EA-2 test. RESULTS: EA-1 data revealed large variance and data recording errors and was removed from the analysis. One participant left the study at Test Day 3 during EA-2. EA-2 ANOVA results showed CS (mean change=0.010 logCSWeber) and VA (mean change, -0.016 logMAR) between pre-test and 11-day test phases; however, neither VA nor CS changes were statistically significant. There were non-statistically significant declines in VA across test phases. DISCUSSION: Overall, visual field performance did not exhibit clinically significant changes (3 lines or greater change in LogMar chart) during exposure to the mild hypoxic exploration atmosphere environment compared to pre-test baseline. The consistency and stability of VA data during EA-2 suggests that the mild hypobaric hypoxic environment did not cause clinically significant negative impacts to participants’ visual field performance.

Visual Acuity↗

Effects of Mild Hypobaric Hypoxia on Visual Field Impairment

INTRODUCTION: The primary objective of the Exploration Atmosphere (EA) study is to validate a new prebreathe protocol necessary before exposure to a suited hypobaric environment during extravehicular activity (EVA) from a habitat ‘exploration atmosphere’ of 56.5kPa (8.2 psia), 34% O2, 66% N2. Prebreathe protocols must be time and resource efficient while also controlling Decompression Sickness (DCS) risk to within acceptable limits. The habitat hypobaric exploration atmosphere also results in a mildly hypoxic environment (piO2 = 128mmHg). As a secondary objective of the EA study, we characterized the effects of 11-day exposure to a mild hypobaric hypoxic environment on visual performance. METHODS: Two, 11-day hypobaric chamber tests were performed (EA-1and EA-2, n=8 each) in NASA’s 20-foot chamber at Johnson Space Center where subjects lived in the exploration atmosphere. Subjects also underwent simulated 6-hour EVAs at 85% O2 and 29.6 kPa during EVA on days 3, 5, 7, 9, and 11. Visual acuity (VA), a measure of spatial resolution, and contrast sensitivity (CS), a measure of ability to distinguish ever finer increments of brightness, were assessed on non-EVA days by using gapped Landolt C testing. The luminance was controlled by using a booth, a light monitor, and a lighting rheostat. EA-1 data had revealed problems in lighting control impacting consistency of the data. Procedures were subsequently updated for the EA-2 test. RESULTS: EA-1 data revealed large variance and data recording errors and was removed from the analysis. One participant left the study at Test Day 3 during EA-2. EA-2 ANOVA results showed CS (mean change=0.010 logCSWeber) and VA (mean change, -0.016 logMAR) between pre-test and 11-day test phases; however, neither VA nor CS changes were statistically significant. There were non-statistically significant declines in VA across test phases. DISCUSSION: Overall, visual field performance did not exhibit clinically significant changes (3 lines or greater change in LogMar chart) during exposure to the mild hypoxic exploration atmosphere environment compared to pre-test baseline. The consistency and stability of VA data during EA-2 suggests that the mild hypobaric hypoxic environment did not cause clinically significant negative impacts to participants’ visual field performance.

Visual Acuity↗

Expendable Launch Vehicle Studies

Analytical support studies of expendable launch vehicles concentrates on the stability of the dynamics during launch especially during or near the region of maximum dynamic pressure. The in-plane linearized dynamic equations of a generic launch vehicle with multiple flexible bending and fuel sloshing modes are developed. The design of a robust LQR controller based on the reduced order system is accomplished using the parameter perturbation technique. The ELV modeling and analysis team has spent the past three years working on the theoretical development and application of sensitivity analysis to solve eigenvalue problems associated with structural dynamics. Specific application areas include stochastic vibrations, viscously damped vibrations and nonlinear dynamics. In stochastic linear vibrations, sensitivity analysis methods have been developed which determined the expectation and variance of the response for given probability density functions of various stochastic parameters. Examples worked include beam vibrations with up to six stochastic parameters; and the eigensensitivity results differ little from those obtained, with much effect, from Monte Carlo techniques. For viscously damped vibrations, eigensensitivity analysis has given excellent results for homogeneous beams, modeled by either quadratic or quartic eigenvalue equations. Specific applications include Kevin and Maxwell-type viscoelastic beams.

Bainum, P. M.↗

Modification of Eccentric Gaze-Holding

Clear vision and accurate localization of objects in the environment are prerequisites for reliable performance of motor tasks. Space flight confronts the crewmember with a stimulus rearrangement that requires adaptation to function effectively with the new requirements of altered spatial orientation and motor coordination. Adaptation and motor learning driven by the effects of cerebellar disorders may share some of the same demands that face our astronauts. One measure of spatial localization shared by the astronauts and those suffering from cerebellar disorders that is easily quantified, and for which a neurobiological substrate has been identified, is the control of the angle of gaze (the "line of sight"). The disturbances of gaze control that have been documented to occur in astronauts and cosmonauts, both in-flight and postflight, can be directly related to changes in the extrinsic gravitational environment and intrinsic proprioceptive mechanisms thus, lending themselves to description by simple non-linear statistical models. Because of the necessity of developing robust normal response populations and normative populations against which abnormal responses can be evaluated, the basic models can be formulated using normal, non-astronaut test subjects and subsequently extended using centrifugation techniques to alter the gravitational and proprioceptive environment of these subjects. Further tests and extensions of the models can be made by studying abnormalities of gaze control in patients with cerebellar disease. A series of investigations were conducted in which a total of 62 subjects were tested to: (1) Define eccentric gaze-holding parameters in a normative population, and (2) explore the effects of linear acceleration on gaze-holding parameters. For these studies gaze-holding was evaluated with the subjects seated upright (the normative values), rolled 45 degrees to both the left and right, or pitched back 30 and 90 degrees. In a separate study the further effects of acceleration on gaze stability was examined during centrifugation (+2 G (sub x) and +2 G (sub z) using a total of 23 subjects. In all of our investigations eccentric gaze-holding was established by having the subjects acquire an eccentric target (+/-30 degrees horizontal, +/- 15 degrees vertical) that was flashed for 750 msec in an otherwise dark room. Subjects were instructed to hold gaze on the remembered position of the flashed target for 20 sec. Immediately following the 20 sec period, subjects were cued to return to the remembered center position and to hold gaze there for an additional 20 sec. Following this 20 sec period the center target was briefly flashed and the subject made any corrective eye movement back to the true center position. Conventionally, the ability to hold eccentric gaze is estimated by fitting the natural log of centripetal eye drifts by linear regression and calculating the time constant (G) of these slow phases of "gaze-evoked nystagmus". However, because our normative subjects sometimes showed essentially no drift (tau (sub c) = m), statistical estimation and inference on the effect of target direction was performed on values of the decay constant theta = 1/(tau (sub c)) which we found was well modeled by a gamma distribution. Subjects showed substantial variance of their eye drifts, which were centrifugal in approximately 20 % of cases, and > 40% for down gaze. Using the ensuing estimated gamma distributions, we were able to conclude that rightward and leftward gaze holding were not significantly different, but that upward gaze holding was significantly worse than downward (p<0.05). We also concluded that vertical gaze holding was significantly worse than horizontal (p<0.05). In the case of left and right roll, we found that both had a similar improvement to horizontal gaze holding (p<0.05), but didn't have a significant effect on vertical gaze holding. For pitch tilts, both tilt angles significantly decreased gaze-holding ility in all directions (p<0.05). Finally, we found that hyper-g centrifugation significantly decreased gaze holding ability in the vertical plane. The main findings of this study are as follows: (1) vertical gaze-holding is less stable than horizontal, (2) gaze-holding to upward targets is less stable than to downward targets, (3) tilt affects gaze holding, and (4) hyper-g affects gaze holding. This difference between horizontal and vertical gaze-holding may be ascribed to separate components of the velocity-to-position neural integrator for eye movements, and to differences in orbital mechanics. The differences between upward and downward gaze-holding may be ascribed to an inherent vertical imbalance in the vestibular system. Because whole body tilt and hyper-g affects gaze-holding, it is implied that the otolith organs have direct connections to the neural integrator and further studies of astronaut gaze-holding are warranted. Our statistical method for representing the range of normal eccentric gaze stability can be readily applied to normals who maybe exposed to environments which may modify the central integrator and require monitoring, and to evaluate patients with gaze-evoked nystagmus by comparing to the above established normative criteria.

Reschke, M. F.↗

Structure and Variability of Water Vapor in the Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere

An algorithm has been developed to synoptically-map asynoptic measurements, while rejecting small-scale under-sampled variance that is intrinsic to satellite measurements of water vapor, cloud, and other convective properties. The algorithm has been validated against high-resolution Global Cloud Imagery (GCI) , constructed from 6 satellites simultaneously viewing the global convective pattern. It has been applied to synoptically map Upper-tropospheric humidity (UTH) from UARS/MLS. Mapped distributions of UTH have been used, jointly with the GCI, to study how the upper troposphere is humidified. The time-mean distribution of UTH is spatially correlated to the time-mean distribution of cold cloud fraction eta(sub c) (T less than 230 K). Regions of large UTH coincide with regions of large eta(sub c), which mark deep convection. They also coincide with regions of reduced vertical stability, in which the vertical gradient of Theta is weakened by convective mixing. Coldest cloud cover is attended convective overshoots above the local tropopause, which is simultaneously coldest and highest. Together, these features reflect the upper-troposphere being ventilated by convection, which mixes in air from lower levels.

Salby, Murry L.↗

Flight-Determined Stability and Control Derivatives for an Executive Jet Transport

A modified maximum likelihood estimation (MMLE) technique which included a provision for including a priori information about unknown parameters was used to determine the aerodynamic derivatives of the Lockheed JetStar airplane. Two hundred sixty-five maneuvers were performed with the JetStar airplane, which was modified to include direct lift controls, to obtain lateral-directional and longitudinal derivatives. Data were obtained at altitudes of 3048 meters, 6096 meters, and 9144 meters (10,000 feet, 20,000 feet, and 30,000 feet) and over an angle of attack range from approximately 3 deg to 13 deg and a Mach number range from 0.25 to 0.75. Side force generators were installed and tested in 87 maneuvers to determine their effectiveness and their effect on the other derivatives. Lateral-directional data for four flight conditions were analyzed without using a priori information to assess the effect of this feature on the results. The MMLE method generally gave consistent (repeatable) estimates of the derivatives, with the exception of the rolling moment due to yaw rate, which showed large variances.

Smith, H. J.↗

TOPEX/POSEIDON tides estimated using a global inverse model

Altimetric data from the TOPEX/POSEIDON mission will be used for studies of global ocean circulation and marine geophysics. However, it is first necessary to remove the ocean tides, which are aliased in the raw data. The tides are constrained by the two distinct types of information: the hydrodynamic equations which the tidal fields of elevations and velocities must satisfy, and direct observational data from tide gauges and satellite altimetry. Here we develop and apply a generalized inverse method, which allows us to combine rationally all of this information into global tidal fields best fitting both the data and the dynamics, in a least squares sense. The resulting inverse solution is a sum of the direct solution to the astronomically forced Laplace tidal equations and a linear combination of the representers for the data functionals. The representer functions (one for each datum) are determined by the dynamical equations, and by our prior estimates of the statistics or errors in these equations. Our major task is a direct numerical calculation of these representers. This task is computationally intensive, but well suited to massively parallel processing. By calculating the representers we reduce the full (infinite dimensional) problem to a relatively low-dimensional problem at the outset, allowing full control over the conditioning and hence the stability of the inverse solution. With the representers calculated we can easily update our model as additional TOPEX/POSEIDON data become available. As an initial illustration we invert harmonic constants from a set of 80 open-ocean tide gauges. We then present a practical scheme for direct inversion of TOPEX/POSEIDON crossover data. We apply this method to 38 cycles of geophysical data records (GDR) data, computing preliminary global estimates of the four principal tidal constituents, M(sub 2), S(sub 2), K(sub 1) and O(sub 1). The inverse solution yields tidal fields which are simultaneously smoother, and in better agreement with altimetric and ground truth data, than previously proposed tidal models. Relative to the 'default' tidal corrections provided with the TOPEX/POSEIDON GDR, the inverse solution reduces crossover difference variances significantly (approximately 20-30%), even though only a small number of free parameters (approximately equal to 1000) are actually fit to the crossover data.

Egbert, Gary D.↗

Nonlinear equilibration of localized instabilities on a baroclinic jet

Dynamical mechanisms underlying the equilibration of absolute instability are examined in a nonlinear, quasigeostrophic, two-layer model. The key to understanding the nonlinear equilibration is in recognizing that linear absolute instabilities can be stabilized both by a reduction of the vertical shear and by enhancement of the mean barotropic velocity. In a localized domain, the equilibration process proceeds with the creation of locally convectively unstable regions downstream, which encroach onto the locally absolutely unstable region until the local instability is suppressed. That local instabilities exist only if absolutely unstable regions span a minimum size is verified by eigenvalue calculations of three-dimensional flows. Numerical examples suggest that this critical size is at least 9000 km for a wide range of parameter values chosen to investigate the midlatitude storm tracks. Fluctuations arising from local absolute instability obtain maximum amplitude in the downstream convectively unstable regions rather than in the absolutely unstable regions themselves. Together, these results suggest that if an equilibrated absolute instability were to occur in midlatitudes, a zonal band of surface easterlies exceeding 900 km would be required and the associated enhanced variances would not be found coincident with the regions of absolute instability.

Delsole, Timothy M.↗

NASA Tech Briefs, February 2014

Topics include: JWST Integrated Simulation and Test (JIST) Core; Software for Non-Contact Measurement of an Individual's Heart Rate Using a Common Camera; Rapid Infrared Pixel Grating Response Testbed; Temperature Measurement and Stabilization in a Birefringent Whispering Gallery Resonator; JWST IV and V Simulation and Test (JIST) Solid State Recorder (SSR) Simulator; Development of a Precision Thermal Doubler for Deep Space; Improving Friction Stir Welds Using Laser Peening; Methodology of Evaluating Margins of Safety in Critical Brazed Joints; Interactive Inventory Monitoring; Sensor for Spatial Detection of Single-Event Effects in Semiconductor-Based Electronics; Reworked CCGA-624 Interconnect Package Reliability for Extreme Thermal Environments; Current-Controlled Output Driver for Directly Coupled Loads; Bulk Metallic Glasses and Matrix Composites as Spacecraft Shielding; Touch Temperature Coating for Electrical Equipment on Spacecraft; Li-Ion Electrolytes Containing Flame-Retardant Additives; Autonomous Robotic Manipulation (ARM); CARVE Log; Platform Perspective Toolkit; Convex Hull-Based Plume and Anomaly Detection; Pre-Filtration of GOSAT Data Using Only Level 1 Data and an Intelligent Filter to Remove Low Clouds; Affordability Comparison Tool - ACT; "Ascent - Commemorating Shuttle" for iPad; Cassini Mission App; Light-Weight Workflow Engine: A Server for Executing Generic Workflows; Model for System Engineering of the CheMin Instrument; Timeline Central Concepts; Parallel Particle Filter Toolkit; Particle Filter Simulation and Analysis Enabling Non-Traditional Navigation; Quasi-Terminator Orbits for Mapping Small Primitive Bodies; The Subgrid-Scale Scalar Variance Under Supercritical Pressure Conditions; Sliding Gait for ATHLETE Mobility; and Automated Generation of Adaptive Filter Using a Genetic Algorithm and Cyclic Rule Reduction.

Source record↗

The Generation of Smooth High Speed Solar Wind From Plume-Interplume Mixing

Ulysses has shown that fast solar wind is extremely smooth, with a variance of less than 5%, in contrast to slow wind with a variance of approximately 30%. Now UVCS has produced the surprising result that the flow speed within coronal holes, the source of fast wind, is not at all smooth. Specifically, Giordano et al. (ApJ, v531, L79-L82, 2000) report that at 1.7 R(sub SUN) the interplume flow speed is typically more than twice the plume flow speed. Other less direct evidence supports this same result, with speeds from less than 300 to over 1000 km/s reported at approximately 5 R(sub SUN). This presents the paradox of how strongly differing plume and interplume flow speeds can exist near the Sun and be absent far from the Sun. The only answer is that plume and interplume material or momentum must be strongly mixed and that the mixing must occur mainly inside 0.3 AU to be consistent with Helios observations of smooth fast wind. Pressure balance structures (PBSs) and He abundance anomalies (Reisenfeld, et al., GRL, v26(13), 1805-1808, 1999) have been identified as interplanetary remnants of plumes, implying momentum mixing is the dominant coronal process. One possible source for plume/interplume momentum mixing is MHD Kelvin-Helmholtz (KH) shear instabilities occurring on the velocity shear interfaces. The velocity shear is a source of free energy and KH fluctuations could, through nonlinear cascade, provide the forcing required for the plasma oscillations (Cranmer, ApJ, v532, 1197-1208, 2000) reported to exist in coronal holes. The physical properties in coronal holes are now sufficiently well known that we can show plume/interplume shear interfaces become unstable to the KH instability at 5 - 10 R(sub SUN). The KH dispersion relation can be used to analyze marginal stability, the most unstable wavelengths, and linear growth rates. Numerical simulations can be used to verify results from the linear analysis and study the nonlinear development of KH modes. Here we will describe the marginal stability criterion for the KH instability, how and where this condition is met in the corona, and the possible character of the resultant fluctuations.

Suess, Steve↗