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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 127 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Bayesian Adaptive Polynomial Chaos Expansions

Polynomial chaos expansions (PCEs) are widely used for uncertainty quantification (UQ) tasks, particularly in the applied mathematics community. However, PCE has received comparatively less attention in the statistics literature, and fully Bayesian formulations remain rare—especially with implementations in R. Motivated by the success of adaptive Bayesian machine learning models such as BART, BASS and BPPR, we develop a new fully Bayesian adaptive PCE method with an efficient and accessible R implementation: khaos. Our approach includes a novel proposal distribution that enables data-driven interaction selection and supports a modified g-prior tailored to PCE structure. Through simulation studies and real-world UQ applications, we demonstrate that the Bayesian adaptive PCE provides competitive performance for surrogate modeling, global sensitivity analysis and ordinal regression tasks.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Meta-Learning Enhanced Physics-Informed Graph Attention Convolutional Network for Distribution Power System State Estimation

Promptly perceiving distribution system states is challenged by frequent topology changes and uncertain power injections. To address these issues, a Meta-learning enhanced physics-informed graph attention convolutional network (Meta-PIGACN) model is proposed to handle topological variability in distribution system state estimation (DSSE). Specifically, physics information is integrated into the graph convolutional network, enabling a physics-informed edge-weighting process that incorporates physical information to control the aggregation of neighboring nodes. Besides, the graph attention mechanism automatically adjusts the importance of different neighboring nodes, allowing the capture and preservation of inherent system features across varying topologies, thereby improving state estimation accuracy. Furthermore, meta-learning is proposed to acquire empirical knowledge across multiple topologies so that the model can rapidly adapt to new configurations through iterative gradient descent updates even in large-scale systems. In conclusion, the simulation results based on the 33/118/1746-node distribution systems show the high accuracy and efficiency of the proposed model.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

CFD Simulation of Aerobic Gas Fermentation to Enable Commercial Conversion of CO 2 into Aquaculture and Animal Feed: Cooperative Research and Development (Final Report)

NovoNutrients’ fermentation technology uses energy from hydrogen to transform industrial CO2 emissions into premium animal feed ingredients and other valuable products. A single NovoNutrients’ commercial manufacturing plant will capture and convert over 200,000 tons/yr of CO2 into over 100,000 tons/yr of high-protein feed. Key to the rapid and widespread deployment of the technology is maximization of its productivity and energy efficiency. Robust, physically based computational models of the technology will significantly increase productivity and efficiency, accelerating NovoNutrients’ technology to manufacturing scale. NREL has unique capabilities for creating and running such computational models. NREL's existing aerobic bioreaction computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models will be adapted to NovoNutrients’ gas fermentation (CO2, H2, O2) technology. The multiphysics CFD simulations require thousands of high-performance computing (HPC) node hours to simulate the complex geometries and contents of NovoNutrients’ industrial bioreactors. The experimentally validated CFD models were used to identify optimally efficient and productive bioreactor designs and operating conditions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

PowerModelsGAT-AI: Physics-Informed Graph Attention for Multi-System Power Flow With Continual Learning

Solving the alternating current power flow equations in real time is essential for secure grid operation, yet classical Newton–Raphson solvers can be slow under stressed conditions. Existing graph neural networks for power flow are typically trained on a single system and often degrade on different systems. We present PowerModelsGAT-AI, a physics-informed graph attention network that predicts bus voltages and generator injections. The model uses bus-type-aware masking to handle different bus types and balances multiple loss terms, including a power-mismatch penalty, using learned weights. We evaluate the model on 14 benchmark systems (4 to 6,470 buses) and train a unified model on 13 of these under contingency conditions with up to two branch outages, achieving an average normalized mean absolute error of 0.89% for voltage magnitudes and R 2 >0.99 for voltage angles. We also show continual learning: when adapting a base model to a new 1,354-bus system, standard fine-tuning causes severe forgetting with error increases exceeding 1000% on base systems, while our experience replay and elastic weight consolidation strategy keeps error increases below 2% and in some cases improves base-system performance. Interpretability analysis shows that learned attention weights correlate with physical branch parameters (susceptance: r=0.38 ; thermal limits: r=0.22 ), and feature importance analysis supports that the model captures established power flow relationships.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Quantum Software Engineering (Dagstuhl Seminar 24512)

The Dagstuhl Seminar 24512 on "Quantum Software Engineering" was held from December 15 to 20, 2024. It brought together 26 participants from industry and academia from 13 different countries, including senior and junior researchers as well as practitioners in the field of Quantum Software Engineering. The aim of the seminar was to advance software engineering methods and tools for the engineering of hybrid quantum systems by promoting personal interaction and open discussion among researchers who are already working in this emerging area of knowledge. The first day of the seminar was devoted to the topic "When software engineering meets quantum mechanics", while the second day focused on "Quantum software engineering and its challenges." During both days, 16 invited presentations were given. The rest of the seminar was organized into three working groups to address the topics "Quantum Software Design, Modelling and Architecturing", "Adaptive Hybrid Quantum Systems", and "Quantum Software Quality Assurance". The seminar was a very fruitful experience for all participants both in terms of scientific outcomes and in terms of the personal relationships that were generated to jointly address future experiences.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Towards a Robust Adaptive Digital Twin for Fusion Applications

The development of a digital twin system for fusion applications is essential for enhancing the prediction, analysis, and optimization of complex plasma processes. Machine learning (ML), particularly deep learning has demonstrated strong capabilities in modeling such highly nonlinear and intricate systems. However, two critical challenges limit the deployment of deep learning-based digital twins: Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) and data drift. UQ is vital for ensuring trustworthy predictions, especially in decision-support scenarios. Additionally, data-driven models are often sensitive to changes in the underlying data distribution, such as shot-to-shot variations in fusion experiments, which can lead to performance degradation over time. To address these challenges, we are developing an uncertainty-aware, adaptive digital twin framework. Our approach incorporates deep learning models enhanced with Gaussian Process approximations for predictive uncertainty estimation, coupled with an online learning mechanism that enables continuous model adaptation to new experimental data. This adaptive capability allows the data driven models to respond effectively to evolving plasma behaviors and equipment conditions. Specifically, to mitigate the effects of shot-to-shot drift, our system updates itself incrementally as new data becomes available, improving both robustness and fidelity. Our vision is to evolve this data driven model into a self-sustaining digital twin system that leverages UQ based feedback to continuously refine itself and potentially support real-time decision making. This presentation will cover a brief background on uncertainty quantification for ML, our ongoing effort on development of UQ capabilities for ML, our data science pipeline from data collection to model development and analysis and online learning framework for modeling coil deflection at DIII-D. I will also briefly touch upon opportunities and challenges in development of digital twin framework.

Sammuli, Brian [General Atomics]↗
DOE OSTI2025

TUTORIAL: A new custom metabolic model for iron-oxidizing bacteria

In this tutorial narrative, we introduce a novel template developed to enable the creation of stoichiometric genome-scale metabolic models for iron-oxidizing bacteria. We demonstrate the development of this template by applying it to Sideroxydans lithotrophicus ES-1, and validate our model using transcriptomic data (Published in Zhou et al., 2022 AEM). Below, we further show that our template facilitates the modeling of mixotrophic iron-oxidizing bacteria and metagenome-assembled genomes (MAGs), by applying our template to the MAG of the mixotrophic iron oxidizer Leptothrix ochracea (Published in Tothero et al, 2024). This work represents the first instance of a generalized and adaptable template for modeling diverse iron-oxidizing microbial systems, expanding the accessibility and applicability of metabolic modeling in this field.

genome-scale model↗
DOE OSTI2024

Estimating Sparse Direct Effects in Multivariate Regression With the Spike-and-Slab LASSO

The multivariate regression interpretation of the Gaussian chain graph model simultaneously parametrizes (i) the direct effects of p predictors on q outcomes and (ii) the residual partial covariances between pairs of outcomes. We introduce a new method for fitting sparse versions of these models with spike-and-slab LASSO (SSL) priors. We develop an Expectation Conditional Maximization algorithm to obtain sparse estimates of the p × q matrix of direct effects and the q × q residual precision matrix. Our algorithm iteratively solves a sequence of penalized maximum likelihood problems with self-adaptive penalties that gradually filter out negligible regression coefficients and partial covariances. Because it adaptively penalizes individual model parameters, our method is seen to outperform fixed-penalty competitors on simulated data. We establish the posterior contraction rate for our model, buttressing our method’s excellent empirical performance with strong theoretical guarantees. Using our method, we estimated the direct effects of diet and residence type on the composition of the gut microbiome of elderly adults.

EM algorithm↗
DOE OSTI2025

Personalized and uncertainty-aware coronary hemodynamics simulations: From Bayesian estimation to improved multi-fidelity uncertainty quantification

Non-invasive simulations of coronary hemodynamics have improved clinical risk stratification and treatment outcomes for coronary artery disease, compared to relying on anatomical imaging alone. However, simulations typically use empirical approaches to distribute total coronary flow amongst the arteries in the coronary tree, which ignores patient variability, the presence of disease, and other clinical factors. Further, uncertainty in the clinical data often remains unaccounted for in the modeling pipeline. We present an end-to-end uncertainty-aware pipeline to (1) personalize coronary flow simulations by incorporating vessel-specific coronary flows as well as cardiac function; and (2) predict clinical and biomechanical quantities of interest with improved precision, while accounting for uncertainty in the clinical data. We assimilate patient-specific measurements of myocardial blood flow from clinical CT myocardial perfusion imaging to estimate branch-specific coronary artery flows. Simulated noise in the clinical data is used to estimate the joint posterior distributions of the model parameters using adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling. Additionally, the posterior predictive distribution for the relevant quantities of interest is determined using a new approach combining multi-fidelity Monte Carlo estimation with non-linear, data-driven dimensionality reduction. This leads to improved correlations between high- and low-fidelity model outputs. Our framework accurately recapitulates clinically measured cardiac function as well as branch-specific coronary flows under measurement noise uncertainty. We observe substantial reductions in confidence intervals for estimated quantities of interest compared to single-fidelity Monte Carlo estimation and state-of-the-art multi-fidelity Monte Carlo methods. This holds especially true for quantities of interest that showed limited correlation between the low- and high-fidelity model predictions. In addition, the proposed multi-fidelity Monte Carlo estimators are significantly cheaper to compute than traditional estimators, under a specified confidence level or variance. The proposed pipeline for personalized and uncertainty-aware predictions of coronary hemodynamics is based on routine clinical measurements and recently developed techniques for CT myocardial perfusion imaging. The proposed pipeline offers significant improvements in precision and reduction in computational cost.

Bayesian parameter estimation↗
DOE OSTI2024

Enabling Scale-Up Through Multi-Fidelity Adaptive Computing

We present ideas from our ongoing work in adaptive computing - an optimization framework that allows us to strategically deploy various fidelity level experiments and simulations to guide decision making. The framework aims to enable uncertainty quantified scale-up of simulations and experiments, which causes increased complexity. A key feature of the framework is the integration of user-specified local model trustworthiness estimates. Adaptive sampling strategies allow us to optimally exploit the multiple fidelity level information and trustworthiness measures to arrive at the best decisions within a highly limited budget of objective function evaluations.

adaptive sampling↗
DOE OSTI2024

Coastal-Urban-Rural Atmospheric Gradient Experiment (CoURAGE) Science Plan

Understanding the mechanisms governing the urban atmospheric environment is critical for informing urban populations regarding the impacts of climate change and associated mitigation and adaptation measures. Earth system (climate and weather) models have not yet been adapted to provide accurate predictions of climate and weather variability within cities, nor do they provide well-tested representations of the impacts of urban systems on the atmospheric environment. These limitations are largely due to limited field data available for testing and development of these models. We will deploy the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility’s first Mobile Facility (AMF1) to the mid-Atlantic region surrounding the city of Baltimore for the Coast-Urban-Rural Atmospheric Gradient Experiment (CoURAGE). This deployment will create a four-node regional atmospheric observatory network including Baltimore and its three primary surrounding environments – rural, urban, and bay. CoURAGE investigators will study the interactions among the Earth’s surface, the atmospheric boundary layer, aerosols and atmospheric composition, clouds, radiation, and precipitation at each site, and examine how the spatial gradients across the region interact to create the climate conditions in Baltimore. This study will determine the degree to which Baltimore’s atmospheric environment depends on interactive feedbacks in the atmospheric system and the degree to which conditions in Baltimore depend on the surrounding environment. Some topics of interest include how urban land management exacerbates heat waves, the impact of regional mesoscale winds (nocturnal jet, bay breeze) on urban air pollution and cloud cover, and the impact of the urban heat island and aerosol production on heavy precipitation events. Understanding this integrated coast-urban-rural system quantitatively and with good accuracy and precision is critical to informing climate adaptation and mitigation efforts in the city of Baltimore. The understanding gained should be applicable to many similar coastal, mid-latitude urban centers. Another important objective of CoURAGE is to improve the representation of the climate of coastal cities in Earth systems models (ESMs). CoURAGE investigators will use the observations to test current ESMs, identify weaknesses and work towards improved simulations of this complex environment. The ARM core facility will be deployed in the city of Baltimore, complementing the Baltimore Social-Environmental Collaborative (BSEC), a DOE urban integrated field laboratory (UIFL). Ancillary sites will be deployed to rural Maryland northwest of Baltimore, and to the southern end of Kent Island within Chesapeake Bay. The fourth node will be a long-term atmospheric observatory operated in Beltsville, Maryland by Howard University and the Maryland Department of the Environment. Measurements will be conducted for one year, starting in December of 2024. There will be two intensive operational periods (IOPs), one in summer and one in winter, when the ancillary sites will be enhanced with additional balloon launches, tethered balloon system (TBS) operation, and added atmospheric composition measurements.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Techno-economic design of a linear Fresnel reflector for industrial process heat

A techno-economic model of a Concentrating Solar Thermal (CST) system using a Linear Fresnel Reflector (LFR) has been developed. LFRs can deliver process heat suitable for a range of industries, including food and beverage production. This model uses an adaptive algorithm to calculate the optimal secondary reflector shape given the geometry and optical properties of the rest of the system. A ray-tracing program is used to calculate optical efficiency over a wide range of longitudinal and transversal incidence angles and subsequently evaluate the annual efficiency at a given geographical location. A specific LFR design developed by Hyperlight Energy was modelled, and this industrial partner provided a detailed cost breakdown which was used as the basis of an economic model. Combining the technical and economic data facilitates the calculation of the Levelized Cost of Heat (LCOH). The influence of a number of parameters on the annual efficiency and LCOH is explored; notable parameters include the absorber height, the number, width, and spacing of the primary mirrors, the aim point, and the secondary reflector shape and width. By identifying an optimal combination of these parameters, we reduce the LCOH of the industry partner’s system design by 9.2%, from 14.4 $\$/MWh_{th}$ to 13.0 $\$/MWh_{th}$. In comparison, the LCOH of a natural gas boiler delivering the same annual quantity of heat is 29 $\$/MWh_{th}$, which indicates that LFRs can be a competitive heat source for industrial processes.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Solid-to-plasma transition of polystyrene induced by a nanosecond laser pulse within the context of inertial confinement fusion

Laser Direct Drive (LDD) Inertial Confinement Fusion (ICF) involves irradiating a spherical target of thermonuclear fuel coated with an ablator, usually made of polystyrene. Laser energy absorption near the target surface leads to matter ablation, hydrodynamic shocks, and ultimately capsule implosion. The conservation of spherical symmetry is crucial for implosion efficiency, yet spatial modulations in laser intensity can induce nonuniformities, causing the laser imprint phenomenon. Understanding laser imprint, especially considering the initial solid state, is essential for advancing LDD ICF. A first microscopic model of solid-to-plasma transition was built in 2019, accounting for laser absorption in the solid state with a band structure based ionization model. This model has been improved to include chemical fragmentation and a more accurate description of electron collision frequency in various matter states. The latest development involves assessing the model reliability by comparing theoretical predictions with experimental observations. Despite the success of this approach, questions remain, leading to further investigations and observations under different irradiation conditions. This work presents an experiment with a nanosecond pulse, taking into account hydrodynamic effects, and measures transmission dynamics over the entire laser beam area to observe two-dimensional effects. As a result, the objective is to adapt the theoretical model, couple it with a hydrodynamic code, and observe additional effects related to the initial solid state.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Integrated edge-to-exascale workflow for real-time steering in neutron scattering experiments

We introduce a computational framework that integrates artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning, and high-performance computing to enable real-time steering of neutron scattering experiments using an edge-to-exascale workflow. Focusing on time-of-flight neutron event data at the Spallation Neutron Source, our approach combines temporal processing of four-dimensional neutron event data with predictive modeling for multidimensional crystallography. At the core of this workflow is the Temporal Fusion Transformer model, which provides voxel-level precision in predicting 3D neutron scattering patterns. The system incorporates edge computing for rapid data preprocessing and exascale computing via the Frontier supercomputer for large-scale AI model training, enabling adaptive, data-driven decisions during experiments. This framework optimizes neutron beam time, improves experimental accuracy, and lays the foundation for automation in neutron scattering. Although real-time experiment steering is still in the proof-of-concept stage, the demonstrated potential of this system offers a substantial reduction in data processing time from hours to minutes via distributed training, and significant improvements in model accuracy, setting the stage for widespread adoption across neutron scattering facilities and more efficient exploration of complex material systems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

A detailed study of pre-heating effects in electron beam melting powder bed fusion process

Metal-based additive manufacturing processes, such as powder bed fusion with electron beam (PBF-EB) process, also referred to as electron beam melting (EBM), can produce high-density parts with minimal residual stresses due to the uniform and coherent preheating of the powder bed. However, understanding and controlling the multiple stages of preheating is required to enable the production of high-quality, consistent parts of various materials. This work presents a large-scale, multi-layer, three-dimensional numerical analysis focused on studying the preheating stages for predicting thermal history during the PBF-EB process. The model follows a continuous multi-stage cyclic process, that incorporates all the main stages of the PBF-EB process for 316 L stainless steel. This includes the gradual deposition of a new powder layer, the first and second preheating levels of the powder bed, and the energy deposition during melting (excluding the actual melt-pool behavior simulation). The model employs an adaptive time-scaling approach that automatically adjusts the energy deposition for each solution time-increment. This allows for localized changes in time-resolution over an otherwise computationally expensive multi-layer procedure. The material property variations are also taken into account, with an emphasis on the subtle irreversible changes in powder effective thermal conductivity after the two requisite preheating stages of the powder bed. This effect is studied using simplified conductivity models from the literature for partially sintered powder, validated by a dedicated experiment and numerical simulation. The large-scale model is then used to estimate the actual temperatures during first and second preheating levels for 316 L steel, which is not yet fully supported commercially for PBF-EB. Model predictions are corroborated by experiments, using and analyzing IR images, taken at the completion of each layer by the machine’s built-in infrared camera. The current model also incorporates a qualitative assessment for the effects of conductivity change during pre-heating, as well as evaluates the applicability of the time-scaling approach.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Adaptive Stiffness Power Take-Off System for a Hydraulic Hose-Pump Point Absorber Wave Energy Converter

Two crucial challenges faced in the design of ocean wave energy converters (WECs) are maintaining high capacity factors and remaining robust in everchanging, harsh ocean environments. This study introduces a novel mechanism for achieving reactive WEC control with a soft hydraulic power take-off, thereby addressing both challenges. The device of interest involves a hydraulic pump, constructed from a fluidic flexible matrix composite (F2MC), which is cyclically stretched by driving waves and pressurizes working fluid through a turbine-generator. This class of fiber-reinforced stretch hoses is established for ocean use as robust moorings and shock absorbers. The dynamic properties of the F2MC pump depend on internal pressure, which can be controlled by a continuously variable transmission between the turbine and generator, allowing the system to be adapted for better performance over a wide range of wave conditions. This work presents a dynamic model for operation and adaptive behavior of this power take-off system, experimentally validates components of the model, and performs dynamic simulations of the system that show increases in power production and capacity factor compared to non-adaptive operation for a variety of driving wave conditions. This work develops the basis for future large-scale experimental testing and controller design of this system.

Wave energy conversion, fluidic flexible matrix co↗
DOE OSTI2025

Applications of the modified Hulthén-Kohn method for bound and scattering states

We adapt the Hulthén–Kohn method suggested by Efros [Phys. Rev. C 99, 034620 (2019)] for calculating various observables in the continuum and discrete spectrum using two-body interactions in single- and coupled channel systems. We explore the convergence of phase shifts and wave functions as well as the location of S-matrix poles which enables obtaining both resonance and bound state parameters. We find that employing a harmonic oscillator basis, together with an interaction smoothing scheme introduced by Gyarmati et al. [Nucl. Phys. A 326, 119 (1979)], and adopting approximate bound-state solutions for the short-range components of basis wave functions lead to good convergence even with restricted oscillator quanta accessible for modern no-core shell model codes. The adapted Efros method will facilitate ab initio many-body nuclear structure applications.

Nuclear reactions↗