Annual Technical Review, RA3-FA1 Progress and Updates
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Collar Properties and Measurement Time Confer Minimal Bias Overall on Annual Soil Respiration Estimates in a Global Database
Abstract Measuring the soil‐to‐atmosphere carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) flux (soil respiration, R S ) is important to understanding terrestrial carbon balance and to forecasting climate change. Such measurements are frequently made using measurement collars permanently inserted into the soil surface. However, differences in measurement duration and frequency, as well as collar properties, may lead to biases in the estimation of annual R S . Using a newly updated global R S database (SRDB‐V5), we investigated the annual R S bias associated with five methodological factors: collar height, collar coverage area, collar insertion depth, measurement duration, and measurement frequency. We found that annual R S was negatively correlated with collar insertion depth, consistent with the idea that collar insertion cuts roots and thus reduces R S . Annual R S was also negatively related with collar height and collar coverage area, perhaps because uniform head‐space mixing is difficult to achieve in larger volume chambers; however, these effects were quantitatively small (bias of ~2% to 10% of mean R S ). We found no correlation of measurement duration or measurement frequency with annual R S . These findings suggest that variation in R S methodology generally introduces minimal bias overall. Therefore, compilations of minimally adjusted annual R S measurements provide a reliable resource for synthesis studies, global annual R S modeling, and investigation of how soil carbon responds to climate change.
Jian, Jinshi↗
Development Approach of the Advanced Life Support On-line Project Information System
The Advanced Life Support (ALS) Program has recently accelerated an effort to develop an On-line Project Information System (OPIS) for research project and technology development data centralization and sharing. There has been significant advancement in the On-line Project Information System (OPIS) over the past year (Hogan et al, 2004). This paper presents the resultant OPIS development approach. OPIS is being built as an application framework consisting of an uderlying Linux/Apache/MySQL/PHP (LAMP) stack, and supporting class libraries that provides database abstraction and automatic code generation, simplifying the ongoing development and maintenance process. Such a development approach allows for quick adaptation to serve multiple Programs, although initial deployment is for an ALS module. OPIS core functionality will involve a Web-based annual solicitation of project and technology data directly from ALS Principal Investigators (PIs) through customized data collection forms. Data provided by PIs will be reviewed by a Technical Task Monitor (TTM) before posting the information to OPIS for ALS Community viewing via the Web. Such Annual Reports will be permanent, citable references within OPIS. OPlS core functionality will also include Project Home Sites, which will allow PIS to provide updated technology information to the Community in between Annual Report updates. All data will be stored in an object-oriented relational database, created in MySQL(Reistered Trademark) and located on a secure server at NASA Ames Research Center (ARC). Upon launch, OPlS can be utilized by Managers to identify research and technology development (R&TD) gaps and to assess task performance. Analysts can employ OPlS to obtain the current, comprehensive, accurate information about advanced technologies that is required to perform trade studies of various life support system options. ALS researchers and technology developers can use OPlS to achieve an improved understanding of the NASA and ALS Program needs and to understand how other researchers and technology developers are addressing those needs. OPlS core functionality will launch for 'Ihe ALS Program in October, 2005. However, the system has been developed with the ability to evolve with Program needs. Because of open-source construction, software costs are minimized. Any functionality that is technologically feasible can be built into OPIS, and OPlS can expand through module cloning and adaptation, to any level deemed useful to the Agency.
Levri, Julie A.↗
Lab Manual & Resources for Materials Science, Engineering and Technology on CD-Rom
The National Educators' Workshop (NEW:Update) series of workshops has been in existence since 1986. These annual workshops focus on technical updates and laboratory experiments for materials science, engineering and technology, involving new and traditional content in the field. Scores of educators and industrial and national laboratory personnel have contributed many useful experiments and demonstrations which were then published as NASA Conference Proceedings. This "out poring of riches" creates an ever-expanding shelf of valuable teaching tools for college, university, community college and advanced high school instruction. Now, more than 400 experiments and demonstrations, representing the first thirteen years of NEW:Updates have been selected and published on a CD-ROM, through the collaboration of this national network of materials educators, engineers, and scientists. The CD-ROM examined in this document utilizes the popular Adobe Acrobat Reader format and operates on most popular computer platforms. This presentation provides an overview of the second edition of Experiments in Materials Science, Engineering and Technology (EMSET2) CD-ROM, ISBN 0-13-030534-0.
Jacobs, James A.↗
GSFC Annual Scan Technology Review SpaceCube On-Board Processor Update
No abstract available
Wilson, Christopher↗
Operational Energy Life Cycle Data Development for the National Institute of Standards And Technology (NIST) Building Industry Reporting and Design for Sustainability (BIRDS) Neutral Environmental Software Tool (NEST)
For this analysis, regionalized life cycle assessment (LCA) results for environmental impacts (using the Tool for Reduction and Assessment of Chemicals and Other Environmental Impacts [TRACI] 2.1) and cumulative energy demand (using the Federal Life Cycle Analysis Commons Elementary Flow List [FEDEFL] Inventory Methods v1.0.0) were evaluated for the production and utilization of electricity, natural gas, fuel oil, and propane as commodities within residential and commercial buildings. These results can used as a framework for future research into net zero, high-performance buildings, such as done here for the Building Industry Reporting and Design for Sustainability (BIRDS) database by the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) Engineering Laboratory. The geographical results were assigned to each United States (U.S.) Zone Improvement Plan (ZIP) code based on the ZIP code location and corresponding Balancing Authority Area, natural gas basin, and Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts (PADDs). Additionally, previously developed models were utilized to develop future life cycle profiles. Projections were based on data available from the U.S. Energy Information Administration Annual Energy Outlook 2022 through 2050 (AEO 2022). Electricity LCA models were updated based on AEO 2022 projected annual generation mixes, while the natural gas baseline model was updated based on projected shares of natural gas types (conventional, shale, tight, and coalbed methane). Projections of crude oil production rates and export rates were applied to the petroleum baseline model in five-year increments to investigate their effects on the life cycle profile of fuel oil and propane. While only 100-year Global Warming Potential (GWP-100) with climate carbon feedback (CC-FB) and Cumulative Energy Demand are shown in Section 4: Results, the complete results, including Acidification Potential, Eutrophication Potential, Freshwater Ecotoxicity Potential, GWP-100 without inclusion of CC-FB, Human Health Impacts Potentials (Cancer, Non-Cancer), Ozone Depletion Potential, Particulate Matter Formation Potential, and Photochemical Smog Formation Potential, are tabulated for each ZIP code in the Excel worksheets that accompany this analysis. For the Excel spreadsheet tools associated with this report, please go to https://www.netl.doe.gov/energy-analysis/details?id=f8890fac-be55-44ac-aaa9-e2888bfabe93
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
Global Estimates and Long-Term Trends of Fine Particulate Matter Concentrations (1998-2018)
Exposure to outdoor fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is a leading risk factor for mortality. We develop global estimates of annual PM2.5 concentrations and trends for 1998–2018 using advances in satellite observations, chemical transport modeling, and ground-based monitoring. Aerosol optical depths (AODs) from advanced satellite products including finer resolution, increased global coverage, and improved long-term stability are combined and related to surface PM2.5 concentrations using geophysical relationships between surface PM2.5 and AOD simulated by the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model with updated algorithms. The resultant annual mean geophysical PM2.5 estimates are highly consistent with globally distributed ground monitors (R2 = 0.81; slope = 0.90). Geographically weighted regression is applied to the geophysical PM2.5 estimates to predict and account for the residual bias with PM2.5 monitors, yielding even higher cross validated agreement (R2 = 0.90–0.92; slope = 0.90–0.97) with ground monitors and improved agreement compared to all earlier global estimates. The consistent long-term satellite AOD and simulation enable trend assessment over a 21 year period, identifying significant trends for eastern North America (−0.28 ± 0.03 μg/m3/yr), Europe (−0.15 ± 0.03 μg/m3/yr), India (1.13 ± 0.15 μg/m3/yr), and globally (0.04 ± 0.02 μg/m3/yr). The positive trend (2.44 ± 0.44 μg/m3/yr) for India over 2005–2013 and the negative trend (−3.37 ± 0.38 μg/m3/yr) for China over 2011–2018 are remarkable, with implications for the health of billions of people.
Melanie S. Hammer↗
Global gridded crop harvested area, production, yield, and monthly physical area data circa 2015
Abstract Here we provide an update to global gridded annual and monthly crop datasets. This new dataset uses the crop categories established by the Global Agro-Ecological Zones (GAEZ) Version 3 model, which is based on the Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations (FAO) crop production data. We used publicly available data from the FAOSTAT database as well as GAEZ Version 4 global gridded dataset to generate circa 2015 annual crop harvested area, production, and yields by crop production system (irrigated and rainfed) for 26 crops and crop categories globally at 5-minute resolution. We additionally used available data on crop rotations, cropping intensity, and planting and harvest dates to generate monthly gridded cropland data for physical areas for the 26 crops by production system. These data are in standard georeferenced gridded format, and can be used by any global hydrology, land surface, or other earth system model that requires gridded annual or monthly crop data inputs.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Stratospheric aerosol forcing for CMIP7 – Part 1: optical properties for pre-industrial, historical, and scenario simulations
Stratospheric aerosols, most of which originate from explosive volcanic sulfur emissions into the stratosphere, are a key natural driver of climate variability. They are thus a forcing provided by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) Climate Forcings Task Team to climate modelling groups participating in phase 7 of CMIP. For the historical period, we provide two datasets covering 1750–2023: (i) a volcanic upper tropospheric-stratospheric sulfur emission dataset, documented in a companion paper; and (ii) a stratospheric sulfate aerosol optical property dataset, documented in this paper. For the satellite era (from 1979 onwards), stratospheric aerosol optical properties are derived from the Global Space-based Stratospheric Aerosol Climatology (GloSSAC) dataset. For the pre-satellite era (1750–1978), optical properties are derived from our volcanic SO 2 emission dataset using a new version of the reduced-complexity volcanic aerosol model Easy Volcanic Aerosol (Height) (EVA_H v2). A background, non-volcanic stratospheric aerosol climatology is derived from the 1998–2001 period with a trend over 1850–1978 accounting for increasing anthropogenic aerosols. A monthly stratospheric aerosol climatology is derived from the 1850–2021 average for both pre-industrial and scenario (future) simulations, with a 9-year ramp over 2022–2030 for scenario simulations to ensure a smooth transition from the historical period. CMIP7 simulations should use version 2.2.1 of our pre-industrial and historical datasets, and version 2.2.2 of our scenario dataset. Our methodology to produce historical aerosol optical properties significantly differs from CMIP6 for the pre-satellite era, and the resulting forcings in turn largely differ. In particular, the CMIP6 dataset was mostly based on the sparse and uncertain pyrheliometer record, which resulted in strongly underrepresented emissions from small-to-moderate magnitude eruptions. The resulting bias is addressed in CMIP7, which is entirely emission-derived in the pre-satellite era and uses more recent ice-core-based volcanic sulfur emission inventories than CMIP6. Our approach results in an overall larger volcanic aerosol forcing for CMIP7, with the 1850–2014 mean mid-visible global mean stratospheric aerosol optical depth (SAOD) in CMIP7 (0.0138) being 29 % higher than in CMIP6 (0.0107). The pre-industrial mean of the same variable is 26 % higher in CMIP7 (0.0135, derived from the historical 1850–2021) than CMIP6 (0.0107, derived from the historical 1850–2014 mean). Using a reduced-complexity climate model, we simulate a global mean surface temperature that is 0.07 °C colder for 1850–1900 when using the CMIP7 dataset instead of CMIP6, whereas 2000–2014 is 0.03 °C warmer in CMIP7. Our dataset also exhibits lower forcing for 1960–1980, resulting in temperatures 0.06 °C warmer when averaged over 1960–1990, a period for which CMIP6 climate models exhibit a cold bias. Given the large uncertainties characterizing the dataset, in particular for the pre-satellite era, we advise against treating the CMIP7 or CMIP6 dataset as uniquely superior for any specific year and highlight the need for further evaluation. We conclude the study by discussing sources of uncertainty for the dataset, future research avenues to improve it, as well as requirements to operationalize the production of the dataset, i.e. extend it and update it on an annual basis instead of every 5–7 years following CMIP cycles.
Aubry, Thomas J. [Univ. of Exeter, Devon (United K↗
Data reduction of digitized images processed from calibrated photographic and spectroscopic films obtained from terrestial, rocket and space shuttle telescopic instruments
The Microvax 2 computer, the basic software in VMS, and the Mitsubishi High Speed Disk were received and installed. The digital scanning tunneling microscope is fully installed and operational. A new technique was developed for pseudocolor analysis of the line plot images of a scanning tunneling microscope. Computer studies and mathematical modeling of the empirical data associated with many of the film calibration studies were presented. A gas can follow-up experiment which will be launched in September, on the Space Shuttle STS-50, was prepared and loaded. Papers were presented on the structure of the human hair strand using scanning electron microscopy and x ray analysis and updated research on the annual rings produced by the surf clam of the ocean estuaries of Maryland. Scanning electron microscopic work was conducted by the research team for the study of the Mossbauer and Magnetic Susceptibility Studies on NmNi(4.25)Fe(.85) and its Hydride.
Hammond, Ernest C., Jr.↗
Marslink
The Marslink Project focuses on the development, dissemination, and evaluation of instructional materials about the composition, structure, and dynamics of the Martian atmosphere, surface, and interior. A multi-year effort is underway so that middle and high school students can follow a full Martian year of seasonal changes using data from NASA's Mars Observer spacecraft, and the Mars Observer Project has time to process and release the appropriate data sets. Monthly activity packets for students, teacher enhancement sessions, a teacher resource center, an on-call Mars data specialist, daily SPACELINK electronic bulletin board updates, and semi-annual NASA Select TV broadcasts will constitute the basis of the Marslink Project. Various aspects of the Marslink Project are briefly discussed.
Arvidson, R. E.↗
Refinement of Protocols for Measuring the Apparent Optical Properties of Seawater
Ocean color satellite missions, like the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) or the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) projects, are tasked with acquiring a global ocean color data set, validating and monitoring the accuracy and quality of the data, processing the radiometric data into geophysical units using a set of atmospheric and bio-optical algorithms, and distributing the final products to the scientific community. The long-standing requirement of the SeaWiFS Project, for example, is to produce spectral water-leaving radiances, LW(lambda), to within 5% absolute (lambda denotes wavelength) and chlorophyll a concentrations to within 35% (Hooker and Esaias 1993), and most ocean color sensors have the same or similar requirements. Although a diverse set of activities are required to ensure the accuracy requirements are met (Hooker and McClain 2000), the perspective here is with field observations. The accurate determination of upper ocean apparent optical properties (AOPs) is essential for the vicarious calibration of ocean color data and the validation of the derived data products, because the sea-truth measurements are used to evaluate the satellite observations (Hooker and McClain 2000). The uncertainties with in situ AOP measurements have various sources: a) the sampling procedures used in the field, including the environmental conditions encountered; b) the absolute characterization of the radiometers in the laboratory; c) the conversion of the light signals to geophysical units in a processing scheme, and d) the stability of the radiometers in the harsh environment they are subjected to during transport and use. Assuming ideal environmental conditions, so this aspect can be neglected, the SeaWiFS ground-truth uncertainty budget can only be satisfied if each uncertainty is on the order of 1-2%, or what is generally referred to as 1% radiometry. In recent years, progress has been made in estimating the magnitude of some of these uncertainties and in defining procedures for minimizing them. For the SeaWiFS Project, the first step was to convene a workshop to draft the SeaWiFS Ocean Optics Protocols (hereafter referred to as the Protocols). The Protocols initially adhered to the Joint Global Ocean Flux Study (JGOFS) sampling procedures (JGOFS 1991) and defined the standards for optical measurements to be used in SeaWiFS calibration and validation activities (Mueller and Austin 1992). Over time, the Protocols were revised (Mueller and Austin 1995), and then recurringly updated on essentially an annual basis (Mueller 2000, 2002, and 2003) as part of the Sensor Inter-comparison and Merger for Biological and Interdisciplinary Oceanic Studies (SIMBIOS) project. 98
Hooker, Stanford B.↗
A Reanalysis for the Seasonal and Longer-Period Cycles and the Trends in Middle Atmosphere Temperature from the HALOE
Previously published analyses for the seasonal and longer-period cycles in middle atmosphere temperature versus pressure (or T(p)) from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) are extended to just over 14 years and updated to properly account for the effects of autocorrelation in its time series of zonally-averaged data. The updated seasonal terms and annual averages are provided, and they can be used to generate temperature distributions that are representative of the period 1991-2005. QBO-like terms have also been resolved and are provided, and they exhibit good consistency across the range of latitudes and pressure-altitudes. Further, exploratory analyses of the residuals from each of the 221 time series have yielded significant 11-yr solar cycle (or SC-like) and linear trend terms at a number of latitudes and levels. The amplitudes of the SC-like terms for the upper mesosphere agree reasonably with calculations of the direct solar radiative effects for T(p). Those SC amplitudes increase by about a factor of 2 from the lower to the upper mesosphere and are also larger at the middle than at the low latitudes. The diagnosed cooling trends for the subtropical latitudes are in the range, -0.5 to -1.0 K/decade, which is in good agreement with the findings from models of the radiative effects on pressure surfaces due to known increases in atmospheric CO2. The diagnosed trends are somewhat larger than predicted with models for the upper mesosphere of the northern hemisphere middle latitudes.
Remsberg, Ellis E.↗
Regularization and Error Characterization of GRACE Mascons
We present a new global time-variable gravity mascon solution derived from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) Level 1B data. The new product from the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) results from a novel approach that combines an iterative solution strategy with geographical binning of inter-satellite range-acceleration residuals in the construction of time-dependent regularization matrices applied in the inversion of mascon parameters. This estimation strategy is intentionally conservative as it seeks to maximize the role of the GRACE measurements on the final solution while minimizing the influence of the regularization design process. We fully reprocess the Level 1B data in the presence of the final mascon solution to generate true post-fit inter-satellite residuals, which are utilized to confirm solution convergence and to validate the mascon noise uncertainties. We also present the mathematical case that regularized mascon solutions are biased, and that this bias, or leakage, must be combined with the estimated noise variance to accurately assess total mascon uncertainties. The estimated leakage errors are determined from the monthly resolution operators. We present a simple approach to compute the total uncertainty for both individual mascon and regional analysis of the GSFC mascon product, and validate the results in comparison with independent mascon solutions and calibrated Stokes uncertainties. Lastly, we present the new solution and uncertainties with global analyses of the mass trends and annual amplitudes, and compute updated trends for the global ocean, and the respective contributions of the Greenland Ice Sheet, Antarctic Ice Sheet, Gulf of Alaska, and terrestrial water storage. This analysis highlights the successful closure of the global mean sea level budget, that is, the sum of global ocean mass from the GSFC mascons and the steric component from Argo floats agrees well with the total determined from sea surface altimetry.
B. D. Loomis↗
Regularization and Error Characterization of GRACE Mascons
We present a new global time-variable gravity mascon solution derived from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) Level 1B data. The new product from the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) results from a novel approach that combines an iterative solution strategy with geographical binning of inter-satellite range-acceleration residuals in the construction of time-dependent regularization matrices applied in the inversion of mascon parameters. This estimation strategy is intentionally conservative as it seeks to maximize the role of the GRACE measurements on the final solution while minimizing the influence of the regularization design process. We fully reprocess the Level 1B data in the presence of the final mascon solution to generate true post-fit inter-satellite residuals, which are utilized to confirm solution convergence and to validate the mascon noise uncertainties. We also present the mathematical case that regularized mascon solutions are biased, and that this bias, or leakage, must be combined with the estimated noise variance to accurately assess total mascon uncertainties. The estimated leakage errors are determined from the monthly resolution operators. We present a simple approach to compute the total uncertainty for both individual mascon and regional analysis of the GSFC mascon product, and validate the results in comparison with independent mascon solutions and calibrated Stokes uncertainties. Lastly, we present the new solution and uncertainties with global analyses of the mass trends and annual amplitudes, and compute updated trends for the global ocean, and the respective contributions of the Greenland Ice Sheet, Antarctic Ice Sheet, Gulf of Alaska, and terrestrial water storage. This analysis highlights the successful closure of the global mean sea level budget, that is, the sum of global ocean mass from the GSFC mascons and the steric component from Argo floats agrees well with the total determined from sea surface altimetry.
Loomis, B. D.↗
Approach to Quality Assurance for Complex Environmental Modeling - 20407
A strong Quality Assurance (QA) program for complex environmental modeling is essential for regulatory and public acceptance and trust, but it does not have to be onerous. Neptune and Company, Inc. (Neptune) has developed a strong QA program that improves transparency, traceability, reproducibility, and therefore, defensibility and trust. Neptune's QA program has evolved over the past 27 years, transitioning from an ad hoc QA program, to a program that is currently Nuclear Quality Assurance-1 (NQA-1) compliant, and will soon be NQA-1/DOE approved for DOE EM modeling work. In addition, Neptune is a qualified laboratory assessor and qualified auditor for reference materials, a proficiency testing provider, and fully complies with the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) QA program. Neptune's President and CEO, Kelly Black, was recently named the Chairperson of the International Organization for Standardization (ISO) Technical Committee 69, Application of Statistical Methods. A strong QA program has been developed for Neptune's radiological performance assessment (PA) program. Although pieces of their QA program are currently in development, their current program includes document control using Subversion, issue tracking and work flow tracking using JIRA, and transparency and traceability via a system of 'calc sheets' for documentation of all data analysis and modeling combined with 'check print' documentation of QA checking, and rigorous model testing and configuration control. All work is reviewed by an independent subject matter expert who is not associated with the collection and assembly of information, for an internal peer review. The program is enforced with a handful of Standard Operation Procedures (SOPs), Work Instructions, QA Project Plans (QAPPs), and Quality Management Plans (QMPs) that are updated frequently, with required annual training and acknowledgment. In addition, effective communication of modeling approaches and results to clients and stakeholders are integral to their QA program. Many of their models are built using the GoldSim modeling platform, for which their models are well-known for their level of transparency, documentation, and QA traceability. This level of QA is also applied to their process-level models. Neptune has taken some lessons learned from the extremely rigorous QA program required for the Yucca Mountain Project (YMP), and imposed the YMP requirements of complete traceability, transparency, and reproducibility, but avoided the inflexibility of a QA program that likely contributed to the suspect e-mails in 2005 that resulted in loss of trust in the YMP, and in nuclear waste disposal (and nuclear power) in general. There are far too many examples of loss of public trust due to poor QA that could have been easily avoided with a simple and straight-forward QA program combined with stakeholder engagement. The purpose of this paper is to share features of Neptune's Radiological Performance Assessment program QA program, and some of their QA related lessons learned over the past 27 years of QA for complex environmental modeling. (authors)
12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
U.S. Renewables Portfolio Standards 2021 Status Update: Early Release
Berkeley Lab’s annual status report on U.S. renewables portfolio standards (RPS) provides an overview of key trends associated with U.S. state RPS policies. The report, published in slide-deck form, describes recent legislative revisions, key policy design features, compliance with interim targets, past and projected impacts on renewables development, and compliance costs. The 2021 Early Release, published in lieu of a 2020 edition, presents historical data through year-end 2019, with some limited results for the year 2020. Key trends from this edition of the report include the following: Evolution of state RPS programs: States continue to refine and revise their RPS policies. Among other significant changes since the start of 2019, eight states enacted higher RPS targets or created new clean-energy/zero-carbon targets (AZ, DC, MD, NM, NV, VA, WA), in most cases setting targets equal to at least 50% of retail sales. Historical impacts on renewables development: Roughly half of all growth in U.S. renewable electricity (RE) generation and capacity since 2000 is associated with state RPS requirements, though that percentage has declined in recent years, representing 23% of all U.S. RE capacity additions in 2019. However, within particular regions-namely, the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic-RPS policies continue to serve a central role in motivating RE growth. Future RPS demand and incremental needs: RPS demand growth through 2030 will require roughly 90 GW of new RE capacity and will require total U.S. non-hydro RE generation to reach 17% of electricity sales (compared to 12% in 2019). Relative to EIA projections, this amounts to roughly one-third of projected RE growth over the next decade. RPS target achievement to-date: States have generally met their interim RPS targets in recent years, with only a few exceptions reflecting unique, state-specific issues. REC pricing trends: Prices for NEPOOL Class I RECs rose steeply over 2019, reaching $40/MWh and remaining at roughly that level over 2020. PJM Tier I REC prices continued to rise at a modest pace over the course of 2020, reaching $10/MWh by year-end. Prices for solar RECs remained relatively stable over 2020, and continue to exhibit wide variation across states, with the highest prices ($200-450/MWh) in NJ, MA, and DC.RPS compliance costs and cost caps: RPS compliance costs in 2019 averaged roughly 2.6% of retail electricity bills in RPS states, compared to 2.3% in 2018, with costs in most states ranging from 0.5% to 4.5% of retail electricity bills.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
The Antarctic Ozone Hole: An Update
The stratospheric ozone hole, an annual occurrence during austral spring, is caused by heterogeneous conversion of hydrogen chloride and chlorine nitrate to chlorine radicals. These reactions take place of polar stratospheric cloud particles in the cold, isolate Antarctic winter vortex. The chlorine radicals participate in chemical reactions that rapidly deplete ozone when sunlight returns at the end of polar night. International agreements eliminated production of the culprit anthropogenic chlorofluorocarbons in the late 1990s, but due to their long stratospheric lifetime (50-100 years), the ozone hole will continue its annual appearance for years to come.
chlorofluorcarbons↗