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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 127 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Uncertainty guided online ensemble for non-stationary data streams in fusion science

Machine Learning (ML) is poised to play a pivotal role in the development and operation of next-generation fusion devices. Fusion data shows non-stationary behavior with distribution drifts, resulted by both experimental evolution and machine wear-and-tear. ML models assume stationary distribution and fail to maintain performance when encountered with such non-stationary data streams. Online learning techniques have been leveraged in other domains, however it has been largely unexplored for fusion applications. In this paper, we investigate online learning for continuous adaptation to drifting data streams in the prediction of Toroidal Field (TF) coils deflection at the DIII-D fusion facility. We further address the short-term performance degradation inherent to standard online learning, which arises because ground truth is unavailable at prediction time. To mitigate this issue, we propose an uncertainty-guided online ensemble framework. The method leverages the Deep Gaussian Process Approximation (DGPA) for calibrated uncertainty estimation and uses these uncertainty measures to guide a meta-algorithm that aggregates predictions from learners trained over different historical horizons. Our results show that online learning reduces prediction error by 80% compared to a static model. The online ensemble and the proposed uncertainty-guided ensemble further reduce error by approximately 6%, and 10% respectively, relative to standard single-model online learning, while also providing calibrated uncertainty estimates to support operational decision-making.

AI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Self‐Potential Tomography Preconditioned by Particle Swarm Optimization—Application to Monitoring Hyporheic Exchange in a Bedrock River

Abstract A self‐potential (SP) data‐inversion algorithm was developed and tested on an analytical model of electrical‐potential profile data attributed to single and multiple polarized electrical sources. The developed algorithm was then validated by an application to SP‐monitoring field data measured on the floodplain of East Fork Poplar Creek, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, to image electrical sources in areas conducive to preferential flow into the flood plain from the bedrock‐lined riverbed. The algorithm combined stochastic source‐localization by particle‐swarm‐optimization (PSO) of electrical sources characterized by simplified geometries with source tomography by regularized weighted least‐squares minimization of a quadratic objective function. Prior information was incorporated by preconditioning the tomography algorithm by PSO results. Variable percentages of random noise were added to analytical‐model data to evaluate the algorithm performance. Results indicated that true parameters of single‐source models were inverted and approximated with small residual error, whereas inversion of analytical‐model data representing multiple electrical sources accurately approximated the locations of the sources but miscalculated some parameters because of the non‐uniqueness of the inverse‐model solution. Source tomography applied to analytical model data during testing produced a spatially continuous parameter field that identified the locations of point‐scale synthetic dipole sources of electrical current flow with varying degrees of accuracy depending on the prior information incorporated into the tomography. When applied to SP‐monitoring field data, the algorithm imaged electrical sources within a known fault that intersects the bedrock riverbed and flood plain of East Fork Poplar Creek and depicted dynamic electrical conditions attributed to hyporheic exchange.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Enhancing Gaussian Process Surrogates for Optimization and Posterior Approximation via Random Exploration

This paper proposes novel noise-free Bayesian optimization strategies that rely on a random exploration step to enhance the accuracy of Gaussian process surrogate models. The new algorithms retain the ease of implementation of the classical GP-UCB algorithm, but the additional random exploration step accelerates their convergence, nearly achieving the optimal convergence rate. Furthermore, to facilitate Bayesian inference with intractable likelihoods, we propose to utilize optimization iterates for maximum a posteriori estimation to build a Gaussian process surrogate model for the unnormalized log-posterior density. We provide bounds for the Hellinger distance between the true and the approximate posterior distributions in terms of the number of design points. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our Bayesian optimization algorithms in nonconvex benchmark objective functions, in a machine learning hyperparameter tuning problem, and in a black-box engineering design problem. The effectiveness of our posterior approximation approach is demonstrated in two Bayesian inference problems for parameters of dynamical systems.

Bayesian inference↗
DOE OSTI2025

Development, Verification, and Validation of an OpenFOAM-Based Solver for Modeling Inertial Fusion Energy Chambers

Our work seeks to introduce a computational tool tailored to the physics of inertial fusion energy chambers, in particular, those concepts based on thick liquid walls. In this approach, the structural materials are protected by several neutron mean-free-paths of renewable liquid and thus will be able to survive much longer than un-shielded walls, with virtually all structures lasting for the life of the plant and enabling the use of commercially available and qualified materials. The OpenFOAM-based solver named rhoCentralFoam has been used as a starting point. rhoCentralFoam belongs to the standard OpenFOAM solver toolset. It is a high-speed, explicit compressible flow solver with shock-capturing capability. While the main features have been retained, the solver had to be restructured to make use of tabular data for equations of states, a necessary addition to model the complex thermo-physical properties of ionized gasses. This entailed the need to change the independent state variables used by the solver, resulting in a new thermodynamic library and slightly different solution algorithm. Moreover, a radiation heat transfer model based on the P-1 approximation was added to the solver. The solver is verified against an analytical solution from the Sedov-Taylor-Neumann test problem to showcase the ability of the hydrodynamic solvers to handle strong shocks, whereas the P-1 model was verified using a simple one-dimensional problem with an analytical solution. Additionally, a validation case involving shock-wave propagation through jet array is presented, and the results are compared with experimental data from the open literature. Lastly, in order to showcase the utility of the solver for practical cases, we applied the refined solver to two representative scenarios: gas venting within the HYLIFE-II chamber and the compression of the gas following the partial ablation of the liquid wall.

Chamber dynamics↗
DOE OSTI2026

Semi-Analytical Hierarchical Bayesian Inference of Nonlinear Model Structure in Stochastic Dynamics: Applied to Compartmental Models of Infectious Diseases

A Bayesian computational framework for parsimonious inference in stochastic nonlinear dynamical systems is presented. This framework enables the concurrent estimation of system states, time-varying parameters, time-invariant parameters, and the optimal sparsity structure of the model parameters. Because differential equation-based models are often simplified mechanistic or phenomenological representations, robust inference from noisy measurement data requires explicit treatment of model error and uncertainty. Model error and time-varying parameters can be represented as random processes, enabling inference while making minimal assumptions about the underlying sources of discrepancy and variability. Adopting stochastic differential equation representations affords the model significant flexibility, but can also render it susceptible to overfitting during statistical inversion, where the inferred model may track noise rather than the underlying signal. To alleviate the effects of overfitting and to enable the discovery of the optimal sparse representation of the time-invariant parameters, a Bayesian sparse learning algorithm is embedded within the framework. This sparse learning framework adopts an approximate hierarchical Bayesian setting defined by a series of semi-analytical expressions. The model structure inference framework is validated using a stochastic compartmental model for tracking and forecasting active cases of an infectious disease. Compartmental models describe population-level infectious disease dynamics through interactions among population fractions grouped by disease state. Mathematically, such models consist of a system of coupled ordinary differential equations. This example adopts an expressive compartmental model that includes multiple possible interactions between disease states, motivated by early uncertainty surrounding COVID-19 reinfection dynamics and their implications for long-term epidemic forecasting. The sparse learning exercise permits the inference of a priori unknown epidemiological dynamics from simulated public health data, discovering the nested compartmental model that optimizes the trade-off between average data-fit and model complexity. It is shown that inducing sparsity among the model parameters eliminates redundant interactions between compartments, equivalently revealing the optimal coupling structure between differential equations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Reproducibility of fixed-node diffusion Monte Carlo across diverse community codes: The case of water–methane dimer

Fixed-node diffusion quantum Monte Carlo (FN-DMC) is a widely trusted many-body method for solving the Schrödinger equation, known for its reliable predictions of material and molecular properties. Furthermore, its excellent scalability with system complexity and near-perfect utilization of computational power make FN-DMC ideally positioned to leverage new advances in computing to address increasingly complex scientific problems. Even though the method is widely used as a computational gold standard, reproducibility across the numerous FN-DMC code implementations has yet to be demonstrated. This difficulty stems from the diverse array of DMC algorithms and trial wave functions, compounded by the method’s inherent stochastic nature. Here, this study represents a community-wide effort to assess the reproducibility of the method, affirming that yes, FN-DMC is reproducible (when handled with care). Using the water–methane dimer as the canonical test case, we compare results from eleven different FN-DMC codes and show that the approximations to treat the non-locality of pseudopotentials are the primary source of the discrepancies between them. In particular, we demonstrate that, for the same choice of determinantal component in the trial wave function, reliable and reproducible predictions can be achieved by employing the T-move, the determinant locality approximation, or the determinant T-move schemes, while the older locality approximation leads to considerable variability in results. These findings demonstrate that, with appropriate choices of algorithmic details, fixed-node DMC is reproducible across diverse community codes—highlighting the maturity and robustness of the method as a tool for open and reliable computational science.

Della Pia, Flaviano [Univ. of Cambridge (United Ki↗
DOE OSTI2025

Analog Systems for Edge Optimization

Over the past decade, analog computing has the subject of substantial research interest providing a path toward improved computational efficiency in the post-Dennard era. Analog matrix vector multiplication (MVM) accelerators provide a popular approach given the ubiquity of MVM operations in numerous applications. However, historically analog computing systems can struggle with applications requiring high precision due to the inherent susceptibility of these systems to analog non-idealities. Therefore, prior work on analog systems has focused either on applications known to be tolerant of limited precision (e.g., neural network inference), or using expensive techniques to emulate high-precision using many analog MVM operations. In this work, we propose an alternative approach. Motivated by recent advances in inexact nonlinear solvers and optimizers, we explore the potential of co-designing optimization algorithms which can take full advantage of the fundamentally inexact analog MVM operations. To enable these co-designed algorithms we also develop a general mathematical theory of the precision and energy efficiency of analog operations, and a new system architecture for tightly-coupled analog and digital computation. Finally, we examine the applicability of analog computing to a wider class of symmetric positive definite systems and find potential in using analog operations as a sparse approximate inverse preconditioner. With these core innovations, this project provides a path toward effectively implementing optimization algorithms on power-constrained autonomous and semi-autonomous systems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

S-OPT: A Points Selection Algorithm for Hyper-Reduction in Reduced Order Models

While projection-based reduced order models can reduce the dimension of full order solutions, the resulting reduced models may still contain terms that scale with the full order dimension. Hyper-reduction techniques are sampling-based methods that further reduce this computational complexity by approximating such terms with a much smaller dimension. The goal of this work is to introduce the points selection algorithm developed by Shin and Xiu as a hyper-reduction method. The selection algorithm was originally proposed as a stochastic collocation method for uncertainty quantification. Since the algorithm aims at maximizing a quantity $\mathcal{S}$ that measures both the column orthogonality and the determinant, we refer to the algorithm as S-OPT. Numerical examples are provided to demonstrate the performance of S-OPT and to compare its performance with a gappy proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) algorithm. Here, we found that using the S-OPT algorithm is shown to predict the full order solutions with higher accuracy than gappy POD especially when the number of sampling points is small, although we note that S-OPT shows slow asymptotic convergence with respect to the number of samples for some applications, e.g., Lagrangian hydrodynamics.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Fragme∩t: An Open‐Source Framework for Multiscale Quantum Chemistry Based on Fragmentation

Fragment-based quantum chemistry offers a means to circumvent the nonlinear computational scaling of conventional electronic structure calculations, by partitioning a large calculation into smaller subsystems then considering the many-body interactions between them. Variants of this approach have been used to parameterize classical force fields and machine learning potentials, applications that benefit from interoperability between quantum chemistry codes. However, there is a dearth of software that provides interoperability yet is purpose-built to handle the combinatorial complexity of fragment-based calculations. To fill this void we introduce “Fragme∩t”, an open-source software application that provides a tool for community validation of fragment-based methods, a platform for developing new approximations, and a framework for analyzing many-body interactions. Fragme∩t includes algorithms for automatic fragment generation and structure modification, and for distance- and energy-based screening of the requisite subsystems. Checkpointing, database management, and parallelization are handled internally and results are archived in a portable database. Interfaces to various quantum chemistry engines are easy to write and exist already for Q-Chem, PySCF, xTB, Orca, CP2K, MRCC, Psi4, NWChem, GAMESS, and MOPAC. Applications reported here demonstrate parallel efficiencies around 96% on more than 1000 processors but also showcase that the code can handle large-scale protein fragmentation using only workstation hardware, all with a codebase that is designed to be usable by non-experts. Fragme∩t conforms to modern software engineering best practices and is built upon well established technologies including Python, SQLite, and Ray. The source code is available under the Apache 2.0 license.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Tensor network representation of non-abelian gauge theory coupled to reduced staggered fermions

We show how to construct a tensor network representation of the path integral for reduced staggered fermions coupled to a non-abelian gauge field in two dimensions. The resulting formulation is both memory and computation efficient because reduced staggered fermions can be represented in terms of a minimal number of tensor indices while the gauge sector can be approximated using Gaussian quadrature with a truncation. Numerical results obtained using the Grassmann TRG algorithm are shown for the case of SU(2) lattice gauge theory and compared to Monte Carlo results.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

A randomized sketching trust-region secant method for low-memory dynamic optimization

The numerical solution of dynamic optimization problems is often limited by the memory required to store the state trajectory, which is used to evaluate the objective function and its derivatives. Recently, [R. Muthukumar et al., SIAM Journal on Optimization 31(2), pp. 1242–1275 (2021)] introduced a trust-region method for dynamic optimization that employs randomized sketching to compress the state trajectory, resulting in inexact derivative computations. By adaptively learning the sketch rank, the trust-region algorithm achieves rigorous convergence guarantees. Here, we extend this approach to use secant Hessian approximations. Due to the randomness introduced by the sketch, the traditional secant update formulae can produce poor Hessian approximations. In particular, the difference of two gradients, computed from two different sketches, may be inconsistent. To overcome this, we employ a sketched approximation of the Hessian application, in lieu of computing the gradient difference. We numerically demonstrate the improved stability of this approach on an example from PDE-constrained optimization.

dynamic optimization↗
DOE OSTI2024

The impact of urban configuration types on urban heat islands, air pollution, CO 2 emissions, and mortality in Europe: a data science approach

The world is becoming increasingly urbanized. As cities around the world continue to grow, it is important for urban planners and policymakers to understand how different urban configuration patterns affect the environment and human health. We aimed at identifying European urban configuration types, based on the Local Climate Zones categories and street design variables from Open Street Map, and evaluating their association with motorized traffic flows, Surface Urban Heat Island (SUHI) intensities, tropospheric nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ), CO 2 per capita emissions and age-standardized mortality. We considered 946 European cities from 31 countries for the analysis defined in the 2018 Urban Audit database, of which 919 European cities were analysed. Data were collected at a 250 m × 250 m grid cell resolution. We divided all cities into five concentric rings based on the Burgess concentric urban planning model and calculated the mean values of all variables for each ring. First, to identify distinct urban configuration types, we applied the Uniform Manifold Approximation and Projection for Dimension Reduction method, followed by the k-means clustering algorithm. Next, statistical differences in exposures (including SUHI) and mortality between the resulting urban configuration types were evaluated using a Kruskal–Wallis test followed by a post-hoc Dunn's test. We identified four distinct urban configuration types characterising European cities: compact high density (n=246), open low-rise medium density (n=245), open low-rise low density (n=261), and green low density (n=167). Compact high density cities were a small size, had high population densities, and a low availability of natural areas. In contrast, green low-density cities were a large size, had low population densities, and a high availability of natural areas and cycleways. The open low-rise medium and low-density cities were a small to medium size with medium to low population densities and low to moderate availability of green areas. Motorised traffic flows and NO 2 exposure were significantly higher in compact high density and open low rise medium density cities when compared with green low density and open low-rise low density cities. Additionally, green low-density cities had a significantly lower SUHI effect compared with all other urban configuration types. Per person CO 2 emissions were significantly lower in compact high density cities compared with green low density cities. Lastly, green low density cities had significantly lower mortality rates when compared with all other urban configuration types. Our findings indicate that, although the compact city model is more sustainable, European compact cities still face challenges related to poor environmental quality and health. Our results have notable implications for urban and transport planning policies in Europe and contribute to the ongoing discussion on which city models can bring the greatest benefits for the environment, climate, and health.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

The gravitational lensing imprints of DES Y3 superstructures on the CMB: a matched filtering approach

Low-density cosmic voids gravitationally lens the cosmic microwave background (CMB), leaving a negative imprint on the CMB convergence |$\kappa$|⁠. This effect provides insight into the distribution of matter within voids, and can also be used to study the growth of structure. We measure this lensing imprint by cross-correlating the Planck CMB lensing convergence map with voids identified in the Dark Energy Survey Year 3 (DES Y3) data set, covering approximately 4200 deg|$^2$| of the sky. We use two distinct void-finding algorithms: a 2D void-finder that operates on the projected galaxy density field in thin redshift shells, and a new code, Voxel, which operates on the full 3D map of galaxy positions. We employ an optimal matched filtering method for cross-correlation, using the Marenostrum Institut de Ciències de l’Espai N-body simulation both to establish the template for the matched filter and to calibrate detection significances. Using the DES Y3 photometric luminous red galaxy sample, we measure |$A_\kappa$|⁠, the amplitude of the observed lensing signal relative to the simulation template, obtaining |$A_\kappa = 1.03 \pm 0.22$| (⁠|$4.6\sigma$| significance) for Voxel and |$A_\kappa = 1.02 \pm 0.17$| (⁠|$5.9\sigma$| significance) for 2D voids, both consistent with Lambda cold dark matter expectations. We additionally invert the 2D void-finding process to identify superclusters in the projected density field, for which we measure |$A_\kappa = 0.87 \pm 0.15$| (⁠|$5.9\sigma$| significance). The leading source of noise in our measurements is Planck noise, implying that data from the Atacama Cosmology Telescope, South Pole Telescope and CMB-S4 will increase sensitivity and allow for more precise measurements.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

High-fidelity holographic beam shaping with optimal transport and phase diversity

A phase-only spatial light modulator (SLM) provides a powerful way to shape laser beams into arbitrary intensity patterns but at the cost of a hard computational problem of determining an appropriate SLM phase. Here, we show that optimal transport methods can generate approximate solutions to this problem that serve as excellent initializations for iterative phase retrieval algorithms, yielding vortex-free solutions with superior accuracy and efficiency. Additionally, we show that analogous algorithms can be used to measure the intensity and phase of the input beam incident upon the SLM via phase diversity imaging. These techniques furnish flexible and convenient solutions to the computational challenges of beam shaping with an SLM.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Algorithm to extract direction in 2D discrete distributions and a continuous Frobenius norm

In this study, we present a novel algorithm for determining directionality in 2D distributions of discrete data. We compare a reference dataset with a known direction to a measured dataset with an unknown direction by the Frobenius norm of the difference (FND) to find the unknown direction. To generalize this concept, we develop a continuous Frobenius norm of the difference (CFND) as a continuous analog of the FND and derive its analytical expression. By relating fitted and normalized 2D Gaussian distributions, we show that the CFND approximates the FND, and we validate this relationship with computer simulations. We find that a first-order approximation of the CFND between two similar Gaussian distributions takes the form of an absolute sine function, offering a simple analytical form with potential applications in specialized areas such as segmented inverse beta decay neutrino detectors, astronomy, machine learning, and more. Our methodology consists of modeling a 2D Gaussian distribution, binning the data into a histogram, and encoding it as a square matrix. Rotating this matrix around its geometric center and comparing it to a measured dataset using the FND gives us rotational data that we fit with an absolute sine function. The location of the minimum of this fit is the angle closest to the true angle of the direction in the measured dataset. We present the derivation and discuss initial applications of the CFND in our novel algorithm, demonstrating its success in approximating directionality in 2D distributions.

Physics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Algorithm to extract direction in 2D discrete distributions and a continuous Frobenius norm

In this study, we present a novel algorithm for determining directionality in 2D distributions of discrete data. We compare a reference dataset with a known direction to a measured dataset with an unknown direction by the Frobenius norm of the difference (FND) to find the unknown direction. To generalize this concept, we develop a continuous Frobenius norm of the difference (CFND) as a continuous analog of the FND and derive its analytical expression. By relating fitted and normalized 2D Gaussian distributions, we show that the CFND approximates the FND, and we validate this relationship with computer simulations. We find that a first-order approximation of the CFND between two similar Gaussian distributions takes the form of an absolute sine function, offering a simple analytical form with potential for specialized applications in segmented inverse beta decay (IBD) neutrino detectors, astronomy, machine learning, and more. Although this method may easily extend to 3D scalar fields, our focus here is on 2D real-valued fields as it directly applies to directionality. Our methodology consists of modeling a 2D Gaussian distribution, binning the data into a histogram, and encoding it as a square matrix. Rotating this matrix around its geometric center and comparing it to a measured dataset using the FND gives us rotational data that we fit with an absolute sine function. The location of the minimum of this fit is the angle closest to the true angle of the direction in the measured dataset. We present the derivation and discuss initial applications of the CFND in our novel algorithm, demonstrating its success in approximating directionality in 2D distributions.

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability (physics↗
DOE OSTI2024

Implementation and (Inverse Modified) Error Analysis for Implicitly Templated ODE-Nets

We focus on learning unknown dynamics from data using ODE-nets templated on implicit numerical initial value problem solvers. First, we perform inverse modified error analysis of the ODE-nets using unrolled implicit schemes for ease of interpretation. It is shown that training an ODE-net using an unrolled implicit scheme returns a close approximation of an inverse modified differential equation (IMDE). In addition, we establish a theoretical basis for hyperparameter selection when training such ODE-nets, whereas current strategies usually treat numerical integration of ODE-nets as a black box. We thus formulate an adaptive algorithm which monitors the level of error and adapts the number of (unrolled) implicit solution iterations during the training process, so that the error of the unrolled approximation is less than the current learning loss. This helps accelerate training while maintaining accuracy. Several numerical experiments are performed to demonstrate the advantages of the proposed algorithm compared to nonadaptive unrollings and validate the theoretical analysis. Here, we also note that this approach naturally allows for incorporating partially known physical terms in the equations, giving rise to what is termed “gray box” identification.

ODE-nets↗
DOE OSTI2025

Ground state energy and magnetization curve of a frustrated magnetic system from real-time evolution on a digital quantum processor

Models of interacting many-body quantum systems that may realize new exotic phases of matter, notably quantum spin liquids, are challenging to study using even state-of-the-art classical methods such as tensor network simulations. Quantum computing provides a promising route for overcoming these difficulties to find ground states, dynamics, and more. In this paper, we argue that recently developed hybrid quantum-classical algorithms based on real-time evolution are promising methods for solving a particularly important model in the search for spin liquids, the antiferromagnetic Heisenberg model on the two-dimensional kagome lattice. We show how to construct efficient quantum circuits to implement time evolution for the model and to evaluate key observables on the quantum computer, and we argue that the method has favorable scaling with increasing system size. We then restrict to a 12-spin star plaquette from the kagome lattice and a related 8-spin system, and we give an empirical demonstration on these small systems that the hybrid algorithms can efficiently find the ground state energy and the magnetization curve. For these demonstrations, we use four levels of approximation: exact state vectors, exact state vectors with statistical noise from sampling, noisy classical emulators, and (for the 8-spin system only) real quantum hardware, specifically the Quantinuum H1-1 processor; for the noisy simulations and hardware demonstration, we also employ error mitigation strategies based on the symmetries of the Hamiltonian. Our results strongly suggest that these hybrid algorithms present a promising direction for studying quantum spin liquids and more generally for resolving important unsolved problems in condensed matter theory and beyond.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗