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Asteroid and comet flux in the neighborhood of the earth

Significant advances in the knowledge and understanding of the flux of large solid objects in the neighborhood of Earth have occurred. The best estimates of the collision rates with Earth of asteroids and comets and the corresponding production of impact craters are presented. Approximately 80 Earth-crossing asteroids were discovered through May 1988. Among 42 new Earth-crossing asteroids found in the last decade, two-thirds were discovered from observations at Palomar Observatory and 15 were discovered or independently detected in dedicated surveys with the Palomar Observatory and 15 were discovered or independently detected in dedicated surveys with the Palomar 46 cm Schmidt. Probabilities of collision with Earth have been calculated for about two-thirds of the known Earth-crossing asteroids. When multiplied by the estimated population of Earth-crossers, this yields an estimated present rate of collision about 65 pct higher than that previously reported. Spectrophotometric data obtained chiefly in the last decade show that the large majority of obvserved Earth-crossers are similar to asteroids found in the inner part of the main belt. The number of discovered Earth-crossing comets is more than 4 times greater than the number of known Earth-crossing asteroids, but reliable data on the sizes of comet nuclei are sparse. The flux of comets almost certainly was highly variable over late geologic time, owing to the random perturbation of the Oort comet cloud by stars in the solar neighborhood.

Shoemaker, Eugene M.

Asteroid 1986 DA: Radar evidence for a metallic composition

Radar observations of the near-Earth asteroid 1986 DA were carried out at the Arecibo Observatory in April 1986, two months after its discovery. Radar results are consistent with the hypothesis that 1986 HA is a piece of NiFe metal derived from the interior of a much larger object that melted, differentiated, cooled and subsequently was disrupted in a catastrophic collision. This 2-km asteroid might be (or have been part of) the parent body of some iron meteorites. Or 1986 DA might share the parentage and/or part of the dynamical history of some meteorites without ever having contributed any of its own ejecta to our meteorite sample. Analysis of the samples returned from 1986 DA might ultimately involve economic considerations. Meteoritic metal is mostly iron with about 8 percent nickel, but also contains substantial concentrations of precious and strategic metals, including approx. 1 ppm of gold and approx. 10 ppm of platinum group elements. If these abundances apply to 1986 DA, it contains some 10(exp 16) g of iron, 10 (exp 15) g of nickel, 10(exp 11) g of platinum group metals, and 10(exp 10) g of gold.

Ostro, Steven J.

Global environmental effects of impact-generated aerosols: Results from a general circulation model

Cooling and darkening at Earth's surface are expected to result from the interception of sunlight by the high altitude worldwide dust cloud generated by impact of a large asteroid or comet, according to the one-dimensional radioactive-convective atmospheric model (RCM) of Pollack et al. An analogous three-dimensional general circulation model (GCM) simulation obtains the same basic result as the RCM but there are important differences in detail. In the GCM simulation the heat capacity of the oceans, not included in the RCM, substantially mitigates land surface cooling. On the other hand, the GCM's low heat capacity surface allows surface temperatures to drop much more rapidly than reported by Pollack et al. These two differences between RCM and GCM simulations were noted previously in studies of nuclear winter; GCM results for comet/asteroid winter, however, are much more severe than for nuclear winter because the assumed aerosol amount is large enough to intercept all sunlight falling on Earth. In the simulation the global average of land surface temperature drops to the freezing point in just 4.5 days, one-tenth the time required in the Pollack et al. simulation. In addition to the standard case of Pollack et al., which represents the collision of a 10-km diameter asteroid with Earth, additional scenarios are considered ranging from the statistically more frequent impacts of smaller asteroids to the collision of Halley's comet with Earth. In the latter case the kinetic energy of impact is extremely large due to the head-on collision resulting from Halley's retrograde orbit.

Covey, C.

Stability and capture of asteroids

The problem of stability of asteroids is treated from the point of view of Hill's stability-concept and using Lyapunov's Characteristic Numbers. The quantitative measure of stability (S) introduced earlier is evaluated for over 300 asteroids and a surprisingly simple relation is established between the semi-major axes of some of the asteroids' orbits and S. A detailed analysis is presented of the Lyapunov Characteristic Numbers for two minor planets and the time-variation of these numbers is discussed. The technology of capture of asteroids is vitally dependent on their orbital stability, therefore, these two problems, i.e., capture and stability, are closely related. In fact, some predictable instabilities may be properly utilized to capture and/or change asteroidal orbits to accomplish collisions with the Earth.

Szebehely, V.

Mass extinction caused by large bolide impacts

A history and development status assessment is presented for the hypothesis that the great extinction of living species 65 million years ago, at the boundary between the Tertiary and Cretaceous geological ages, was due to the collision of a meteoroid, asteroid, or comet with the earth. The initial, deeply suggestive indication of the extraterrestial origin of the extinction-initiating mechanism was the detection of an exceptionally high concentration of iridium at the stratigraphic position of the extinction. Detailed computer modeling of the atmospheric effect of such a bolide impact has shown that the earth would have first grown intensely cold during a period of darkness due to particulate debris clouds in the upper atmosphere, followed by an enormous increase in global temperatures as the debris cleared, created by the persistence of greenhouse-effect gases; this heating would have been especially lethal to numerous forms of life.

Alvarez, Luis W.

Environmental Consequences of Big Nasty Impacts on the Early Earth

The geological record of the Archean Earth is spattered with impact spherules from a dozen or so major cosmic collisions involving Earth and asteroids or comets (Lowe, Byerly 1986, 2015). Extrapolation of the documented deposits suggests that most of these impacts were as big or bigger than the Chicxulub event that famously ended the reign of the thunder lizards. As the Archean impacts were greater, the environmental effects were also greater. The number and magnitude of the impacts is bounded by the lunar record. There are no lunar craters bigger than Chicxulub that date to Earth's mid-to-late Archean. Chance dictates that Earth experienced no more than approximately 10 impacts bigger than Chicxulub between 2.5 billion years and 3.5 2.5 billion years, the biggest of which were approximately30-100 times more energetic, comparable to the Orientale impact on the Moon (1x10 (sup 26) joules). To quantify the thermal consequences of big impacts on old Earth, we model the global flow of energy from the impact into the environment. The model presumes that a significant fraction of the impact energy goes into ejecta that interact with the atmosphere. Much of this energy is initially in rock vapor, melt, and high speed particles. (i) The upper atmosphere is heated by ejecta as they reenter the atmosphere. The mix of hot air, rock vapor, and hot silicates cools by thermal radiation. Rock raindrops fall out as the upper atmosphere cools. (ii) The energy balance of the lower atmosphere is set by radiative exchange with the upper atmosphere and with the surface, and by evaporation of seawater. Susequent cooling is governed by condensation of water vapor. (iii) The oceans are heated by thermal radiation and rock rain and cooled by evaporation. Surface waters become hot and salty; if a deep ocean remains it is relatively cool. Subsequently water vapor condenses to replenish the oceans with hot fresh water (how fresh depending on continental weathering, which might be rather rapid under the circumstances). (iv) The surface temperature of dry land is presumed to be the same as the lower atmosphere. A thermal wave propagates into the land at a rate set by conduction. Impacts not greatly larger than Chicxulub can raise the surface temperature by tens, hundreds, or even thousands of degrees, and evaporate meters to hundreds of meters of water. The biggest should have vitrified exposed dry land. More results are for the talk, as here we have run out of space.

asteroids

Environmental Consequences of Big Nasty Impacts on the Early Earth

The geological record of the Archean Earth is spattered with impact spherules from a dozen or so major cosmic collisions involving Earth and asteroids or comets (Lowe, Byerly 1986, 2015). Extrapolation of the documented deposits suggests that most of these impacts were as big or bigger than the Chicxulub event that famously ended the reign of the thunder lizards. As the Archean impacts were greater, the environmental effects were also greater. The number and magnitude of the impacts is bounded by the lunar record. There are no lunar craters bigger than Chicxulub that date to Earth's mid-to-late Archean. Chance dictates that Earth experienced no more than approximately 10 impacts bigger than Chicxulub between 2.5 billion years and 3.5 billion years, the biggest of which were approximately 30-100 times more energetic, comparable to the Orientale impact on the Moon (1x10 (sup 26) joules). To quantify the thermal consequences of big impacts on old Earth, we model the global flow of energy from the impact into the environment. The model presumes that a significant fraction of the impact energy goes into ejecta that interact with the atmosphere. Much of this energy is initially in rock vapor, melt, and high speed particles. (i) The upper atmosphere is heated by ejecta as they reenter the atmosphere. The mix of hot air, rock vapor, and hot silicates cools by thermal radiation. Rock raindrops fall out as the upper atmosphere cools. (ii) The energy balance of the lower atmosphere is set by radiative exchange with the upper atmosphere and with the surface, and by evaporation of seawater. Susequent cooling is governed by condensation of water vapor. (iii) The oceans are heated by thermal radiation and rock rain and cooled by evaporation. Surface waters become hot and salty; if a deep ocean remains it is relatively cool. Subsequently water vapor condenses to replenish the oceans with hot fresh water (how fresh depending on continental weathering, which might be rather rapid under the circumstances). (iv) The surface temperature of dry land is presumed to be the same as the lower atmosphere. A thermal wave propagates into the land at a rate set by conduction. Impacts not greatly larger than Chicxulub can raise the surface temperature by tens, hundreds, or even thousands of degrees, and evaporate meters to hundreds of meters of water. The biggest should have vitrified exposed dry land. More results are for the talk, as here we have run out of space.

Archean Earth

Planetary Defence Activities Beyond NASA and ESA

The collision of a significant asteroid or comet with Earth represents a singular natural disaster for a myriad of reasons, including: its extraterrestrial origin; the fact that it is perhaps the only natural disaster that is preventable in many cases, given sufficient preparation and warning; its scope, which ranges from damaging a city to an extinction-level event; and the duality of asteroids and comets themselves---they are grave potential threats, but are also tantalising scientific clues to our ancient past and resources with which we may one day build a prosperous spacefaring future. Accordingly, the problems of developing the means to interact with asteroids and comets for purposes of defence, scientific study, exploration, and resource utilisation have grown in importance over the past several decades. Since the 1980s, more and more asteroids and comets (especially the former) have been discovered, radically changing our picture of the solar system. At the beginning of the year 1980, approximately 9,000 asteroids were known to exist. By the beginning of 2001, that number had risen to approximately 125,000 thanks to the Earth-based telescopic survey efforts of the era, particularly the emergence of modern automated telescopic search systems, pioneered by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s (MIT’s) LINEAR system in the mid-to-late 1990s. Today, in late 2019, about 840,000 asteroids have been discovered, with more and more being found every week, month, and year. Of those, approximately 21,400 are categorised as near-Earth asteroids (NEAs), 2,000 of which are categorised as Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) and 2,749 of which are categorised as potentially accessible. The hazards posed to us by asteroids affect people everywhere around the world. As well, the opportunities presented by asteroids may benefit our entire species. Thus, with such a large number of currently known asteroids and so many yet to be discovered, it is not surprising that individuals, organisations, institutions, and governments all around the world have become interested in the study of asteroids. Indeed, a variety of government space agencies, private organisations, and individuals have worked on developing the means by which to observe, study, and even interact with asteroids and comets for purposes including science, exploration, pioneering, commerce, and planetary defence. This includes significant individual contributions by amateur asteroid astronomers all over the world. International cooperation in planetary defence within the contexts of the United Nations and the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) are discussed in Chapter 2, and the activities undertaken by the world’s larger space agencies, ESA and NASA, are discussed in Chapters 3 and 4. But, what of the other agencies and institutions around the world who are also working on the problem of defence against hazardous asteroids and comets, or related topics? In this chapter we provide an overview, in alphabetical order, of some of the planetary defence related efforts that have been undertaken around the world beyond the activities at the United Nations, NASA, and ESA.

Barbee, Brent W.

The 1986 DA and 1986 EB: M-class asteroids in near-Earth orbits

The Earth-approaching asteroid population is composed of asteroids in orbits with short lifetimes compared with the age of the solar system. These objects which are comprised of Aten, Apollo, and Amor asteroids must be replenished from either cometary or mainbelt asteroid sources since lifetimes against collision with or ejection by a planet are on the order of 10 to 100 million years. The physical study of Earth-approaching asteroids is constrained by the generally long period between favorable apparitions and poorly known orbits. Broadband spectrophotometry on the Johnson UBVR system and the Eight-Color Asteroid Survey system were obtained at Kitt Peak National Observatory and on the Johnson JHK system and at 10 and 20 microns at the NASA Infrared Telescope Facility at Mauna Kea Observatory. These observations were used to determine the absolute visual magnitudes and to derive the visual geometric albedos and diameters on the IRAS system. The spectral reflectance properties and geometric albedos of the M-class asteroids are consistent compositions analogous to the iron nickel meteorites or the enstatite-metal assemblages of the enstatite chondrites. The issue of the source(s) of the near-Earth asteroids population was examined by comparing the classifications on the scheme employed by Gradie and Tedesco of 38 such asteroids. Most of the near-Earth objects is indeed the asteroid belt as the observations suggest, then a method for removing extinct nuclei of short period comets must be found since the rate of production of short period comets from the long period comets is relatively large.

Gradie, Jonathan

Tethers and asteroids for artificial gravity assist in the solar system

Analytical models are defined for gravity-assist trajectory changes for spacecraft passing massive compact bodies. The models are applied in an examination of the benefits of lowering a tether to an asteroid during a flyby in order to gain a trajectory change equivalent to that from a massive body (planet). Direct flybys yield velocity gains while retrograde flybys shed velocity. The magnitude of the effects are a function of the proximity to the body during flyby. This inherently limits the gravity assist technique used around planets, which usually have atmospheres and can have intense radiation fields. If a spacecraft could extend a tether (such as to be tested on the Orbiter) to snag on an asteroid surface, the potential trajectory/velocity change of the spacecraft would be limited mainly by the tether strength. The encounter physics are treated as a soft collision. Possible applications of the asteroid tether technique are outer planet, Mars and main belt asteroid exploration missions.

Penzo, P. A.

Baryonic dark clusters in galactic halos and their observable consequences

We consider the possibility that approximately 10% of the mass of a typical galaxy halo is in the form of massive (approximately 10(exp 7) solar masses), compact (escape speeds approximately 100 km/s) baryonic clusters made of neutron stars (approximately 10% by mass), black holes (less than or approximately equal to 1%) and brown dwarfs, asteroids, and other low-mass debris (approximately 90%). These general properties are consistent with several different observational and phenomenological constraints on cluster properties subject to the condition that neutron stars comprise approximately 1% of the total halo mass. Such compact, dark clusters could be the sites of a variety of collisional phenomena involving neutron stars. We find that integrated out to the Hubble distance approximately one neutron star-neutron star or neutron star-black hole collision occurs daily. Of order 0.1-1 asteroid-neutron star collisions may also happen daily in the halo of the Milky Way if there is roughly equal cluster mass per logarithmic particle mass interval between asteroids and brown dwarfs. These event rates are comparable to the frequency of gamma-ray burst detections by the Burst and Transient Source Experiment (BATSE) on the Compton Observatory, implying that if dark halo clusters are the sites of most gamma-ray bursts, perhaps approximately 90% of all bursts are extragalactic, but approximately 10% are galactic. It is possible that dark clusters of the kind discussed here could be detected directly by the Infrared Space Observatory (ISO) or Space Infrared Telescope Facility (SIRTF). If the clusters considered in this paper exist, they should produce spatially correlated gravitational microlensing of stars in the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC). If 10% of the halo is in the form of dark baryonic clusters, and the remaining 90% is in brown dwarfs and other dark objects which are either unclustered or collected into low-mass clusters, then we expect that two events within approximately 1 min of one another are likely to be seen after a total of order 20-30 microlenses have been detected.

Wasserman, Ira

Long-range consequences of interplanetary collisions

As Comet Shoemaker-Levy 9 races toward its mid-July collision with the planet Jupiter, considerable public attention is focused on catastrophic impacts with the Earth -- in the past and in the future. In recent years calls have been made to develop technologies that could deflect any asteroid or comet on a collision course. Careful consideration must be given to the nature and time scale of the risk and to the cost-effectiveness and possible problems in the suggested solutions. Risk assessment, threat removal, and resources misuse are examined. The greatest concern is to have a poorly informed public -- exerting pressure for means to mitigate even non-existent threats. The only foreseeable solution is a combination of accurate orbit estimation, realistic threat assessment, and effective public education.

Sagan, Carl

Formation of mesosiderites by low-velocity impacts as a natural consequence of planet formation

It is argued here that, during the period of planet formation, mesosiderites originated by the low-velocity collisions of large metallic core fragments with the surface of a differentiated asteroid-size body. Relative velocities of the asteroids native to this region were low because it was distant from massive protoplanets. However, a few differentiated asteroids were destroyed by high-velocity collisions with interlopers perturbed by protoplanets into high eccentric orbits. These collisions reduced mantles and crusts to small silicate fragments, but left cores in the form of large, durable metal fragments. Mesosiderite-like pyroxenite-basalt-metal mixtures were formed when large core fragments accreted at low velocities to the regolith of an intact asteroid. Most of the olivine in mesosiderite and howardite breccias are attributed here to the mantles of the disrupted parent bodies. The low olivine contents indicate that the amount of debris accreted from disrupted asteroids was small relative to the volumes of the regoliths.

Wasson, J. T.

Asteroid collisional evolution - An integrated model for the evolution of asteroid rotation rates

A comprehensive model for the changes in asteroid spin rates due to large collisions was developed by combining the theoretical results of Cellino et al. (1990) with previously published work on spin rate changes for cratering impacts (Harris, 1979; Dobrovolskis and Burns, 1984). The spin change algorithm, when incorporated into an existing simulation of collisional effects on asteroid sizes, produced an integrated model for studying the simultaneous evolution of asteroid sizes and spin rates over the solar system history. As a result of an analysis of 32 collisional scenarios with regard to the change in the spin rate as a function of asteroid size, it is concluded that the spin rates of all asteroids, except possibly the largest ones, have been significantly altered by collisions over the solar system history and that, in general, shattering impacts are much more important than cratering events in changing the spin of asteroids.

Farinella, P.

Impact experiments. III - Catastrophic fragmentation of aggregate targets and relation to asteroids

An experimental study is conducted of collisions employing artificial aggregates as targets, in order to ascertain the fragmentation characteristics of weakly bonded bodies that consist of stronger constituent particles, such as loosely aggregated planetesimals. It is established that weakly bonded aggregate bodies may exhibit unexpectedly high impact strengths due to constituent particles' energy dissipation. The cumulative size distributions of fragments that are larger than the constituent grains form power-law segments resembling those formed by the fragmentation of homogeneous targets.

Ryan, Eileen V.

Impact on Comets and Asteroids

We characterized the impact physics in collisions on porous bodies by various density projectiles and defined different penetration modes (compression, spreading, or breakup) based on transitions between instability regimes. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

OKeefe, John D.