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Results for “atmosphere dynamics”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 127 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Robust projection of East Asian summer monsoon rainfall based on dynamical modes of variability

Abstract The Asian monsoon provides the freshwater that a large population in Asia depends on, but how anthropogenic climate warming may alter this key water source remains unclear. This is partly due to the prevailing point-wise assessment of climate projections, even though climate change patterns are inherently organized by dynamics intrinsic to the climate system. Here, we assess the future changes in the East Asian summer monsoon precipitation by projecting the precipitation from several large ensemble simulations and CMIP6 simulations onto the two leading dynamical modes of internal variability. The result shows a remarkable agreement among the ensembles on the increasing trends and the increasing daily variability in both dynamical modes, with the projection pattern emerging as early as the late 2030 s. The increase of the daily variability of the modes heralds more monsoon-related hydrological extremes over some identifiable East Asian regions in the coming decades.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Atmospheric and oceanic energy transport during North Atlantic freshening events: influences of moisture transport and hydrologic cycle feedbacks

Analogs of present-day rapid ice melt can be found in episodic discharges of icebergs that occurred during glacial periods called Heinrich events. This introduces excess meltwater into the North Atlantic and weakens the Atlantic thermohaline circulation (AMOC), triggering a hydrologic cycle–AMOC collapse feedback as the atmospheric energy transport compensates for reduced northward heat transport. Here we employ a novel series of 100-year North Atlantic “hosing” simulations to investigate atmospheric and oceanic energy transport response from freshwater forcing, focusing in particular on the role of atmospheric rivers (ARs) within atmospheric energy transport. Importantly, we use an “overwriting” methodology that allow us to attribute AMOC weakening to added North Atlantic meltwater and subsequent hydrologic cycle responses, respectively. In contrast to far-reaching response of transient eddies, our results show a substantial increase in moisture convergence from ARs that is geographically constrained to the North Atlantic midlatitudes. Such AR changes nevertheless comprise an important component of net precipitation changes over the Euro-Atlantic sector, with the amount being comparable to that from transient eddies over the subpolar Atlantic. Over the course of the century-long simulations, we demonstrate that hydrologic cycle responses to North Atlantic freshening and subsequent feedbacks, including those from ARs, account for approximately half of the simulated AMOC collapse. Furthermore, our work highlights the dynamics of atmospheric moisture transport response to North Atlantic freshening events and elucidates how intensifying moisture transport may accelerate AMOC collapse in the future.

Atmospheric Science↗
DOE OSTI2022

Substantial influence of vapour buoyancy on tropospheric air temperature and subtropical cloud

The molar mass of water vapor is less than that of dry air, making humid air lighter than dry air at the same temperature and pressure. This effect is known as vapor buoyancy and has been considered negligibly small in large-scale climate dynamics. Here we use theory, reanalysis data, and a hierarchy of climate models to show that vapor buoyancy has a similar magnitude to thermal buoyancy in the tropical free troposphere. We further show that vapor buoyancy makes cold air rise and increases subtropical stratiform low clouds by up to 70% of its climatological value. However, some widely used climate models fail to represent vapor buoyancy in the governing equations. Further, this flaw leads to inaccurate simulations of cloud distributions—the largest uncertainty in predicting climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Improving Simulations of Vegetation Dynamics over the Tibetan Plateau: Role of Atmospheric Forcing Data and Spatial Resolution

The efficacy of vegetation dynamics simulations in offline land surface models (LSMs) largely depends on the quality and spatial resolution of meteorological forcing data. In this study, the Princeton Global Meteorological Forcing Data (PMFD) and the high spatial resolution and upscaled China Meteorological Forcing Data (CMFD) were used to drive the Simplified Simple Biosphere model version 4/Top-down Representation of Interactive Foliage and Flora Including Dynamics (SSiB4/TRIFFID) and investigate how meteorological forcing datasets with different spatial resolutions affect simulations over the Tibetan Plateau (TP), a region with complex topography and sparse observations. By comparing the monthly Leaf Area Index (LAI) and Gross Primary Production (GPP) against observations, we found that SSiB4/TRIFFID driven by upscaled CMFD improved the performance in simulating the spatial distributions of LAI and GPP over the TP, reducing RMSEs by 24.3% and 20.5%, respectively. The multi-year averaged GPP decreased from 364.68 gC m –2 yr –1 to 241.21 gC m –2 yr –1 with the percentage bias dropping from 50.2% to –1.7%. When using the high spatial resolution CMFD, the RMSEs of the spatial distributions of LAI and GPP simulations were further reduced by 7.5% and 9.5%, respectively. This study highlights the importance of more realistic and high-resolution forcing data in simulating vegetation growth and carbon exchange between the atmosphere and biosphere over the TP.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Standing shock prevents propagation of sparks in supersonic explosive flows

Abstract Volcanic jet flows in explosive eruptions emit radio frequency signatures, indicative of their fluid dynamic and electrostatic conditions. The emissions originate from sparks supported by an electric field built up by the ejected charged volcanic particles. When shock-defined, low-pressure regions confine the sparks, the signatures may be limited to high-frequency content corresponding to the early components of the avalanche-streamer-leader hierarchy. Here, we image sparks and a standing shock together in a transient supersonic jet of micro-diamonds entrained in argon. Fluid dynamic and kinetic simulations of the experiment demonstrate that the observed sparks originate upstream of the standing shock. The sparks are initiated in the rarefaction region, and cut off at the shock, which would limit their radio frequency emissions to a tell-tale high-frequency regime. We show that sparks transmit an impression of the explosive flow, and open the way for novel instrumentation to diagnose currently inaccessible explosive phenomena.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Central American mountains inhibit eastern North Pacific seasonal tropical cyclone activity

Abstract The eastern North Pacific (ENP) has the highest density of tropical cyclones (TCs) on earth, and yet the controls on TCs, from individual events to seasonal totals, remain poorly understood. One effect that has not been fully considered is the unique geography of the Central American mountains. Although observational studies suggest these mountains can readily fuel individual TCs through dynamical processes, here we show that these mountains indeed play the opposite role on the seasonal timescale, hindering seasonal ENP TC activity by up to 35%. We found that these mountains significantly interrupt the abundant moisture transport from the Caribbean Sea to the ENP, limiting deep convection over the open ocean area where TCs preferentially occur. This study advances our fundamental understanding of ENP TC genesis mechanisms across the weather-to-climate timescales, and also highlights the importance of topography representation in improving the ENP regional climate simulations, as well as TC seasonal predictions and future projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Influence of biogenic emissions from boreal forests on aerosol–cloud interactions

Boreal forest acts as a carbon sink and contributes to the formation of secondary organic aerosols via emission of aerosol precursor compounds. However, these influences on the climate system are poorly quantified. Here we show direct observational evidence that aerosol emissions from the boreal forest biosphere influence warm cloud microphysics and cloud-aerosol interactions in a scale-dependent and highly dynamic manner. Analyses of in situ and ground-based remote-sensing observations from the SMEAR II station in Finland, conducted over eight months in 2014, reveal substantial increases in aerosol load over the forest one to three days after aerosol-poor marine air enters the forest environment. We find that these changes are consistent with secondary organic aerosol formation and, together with water-vapour emissions from evapotranspiration, are associated with changes in the radiative properties of warm, low-level clouds. Here, the feedbacks between boreal forest emissions and aerosol-cloud interactions and the highly dynamic nature of these interactions in air transported over the forest over timescales of several days suggest boreal forests have the potential to mitigate climate change on a continental scale. Our findings suggest that even small changes in aerosol precursor emissions, whether due to changing climatic or anthropogenic factors, may substantially modify the radiative properties of clouds in moderately polluted environments. Emissions from the boreal forest biosphere can substantially increase aerosol load above the forest and influence the radiative properties of clouds, according to analysis of observations from a monitoring station in Finland.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Summertime low clouds mediate the impact of the large-scale circulation on Arctic sea ice

The rapid Arctic sea ice retreat in the early 21 st century is believed to be driven by several dynamic and thermodynamic feedbacks, such as ice-albedo feedback and water vapor feedback. However, the role of clouds in these feedbacks remains unclear since the causality between clouds and these processes is complex. Here, we use NASA CERES satellite products and NCAR CESM model simulations to suggest that summertime low clouds have played an important role in driving sea ice melt by amplifying the adiabatic warming induced by a stronger anticyclonic circulation aloft. The upper-level high pressure regulates low clouds through stronger downward motion and increasing lower troposphere relative humidity. The increased low clouds favor more sea ice melt via emitting stronger longwave radiation. Then decreased surface albedo triggers a positive ice-albedo feedback, which further enhances sea ice melt. Considering the importance of summertime low clouds, accurate simulation of this process is a prerequisite for climate models to produce reliable future projections of Arctic sea ice.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Structure and Dynamics of CO 2 at the Air–Water Interface from Classical and Neural Network Potentials

The accurate description of the structure and dynamics of CO 2 at the instantaneous air–water interface, along with the effects of surface fluctuations on the CO 2 -transport processes, is essential for the development of negative emission technologies aimed at minimizing climate change. In this study, we performed molecular dynamics simulations of CO 2 at the air–water interface using neural network potentials (NNPs) trained on ab initio data generated through density-functional-theory-based molecular dynamics simulations. We compared these results with classical force fields to assess their performance in modeling interfacial CO 2 behavior. Our findings revealed that the asymmetric interactions, coupled with thermal surface fluctuations at the air–water interface, significantly influence CO 2 transport into the aqueous phase. The simulations demonstrate that classical force fields underestimate both the free energy of CO 2 transport and the strength of its interactions at the interface compared with the neural network potentials. In conclusion, the free energy and the interfacial dynamics of CO 2 are primarily influenced by the distribution of water within the instantaneous interfacial water layer, responsible for creating an asymmetric intermolecular interaction environment within the interfacial region.

Ab initio molecular dynamics↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Unexpected Oceanic Peak in Energy Input to the Atmosphere and Its Consequences for Monsoon Rainfall

Abstract Monsoons have historically been understood to be caused by the low thermal inertia of land, allowing more energy from summer insolation to be transferred to the overlying atmosphere than over adjacent ocean. Here, we show that during boreal summer, the global maximum net energy input (NEI) to the atmosphere unexpectedly lies over the Indian Ocean, not over land. Observed radiative fluxes suggest that cloud‐radiative effects (CRE) almost double the NEI over ocean, shifting the NEI peak from land to ocean. Global climate model experiments with both land and interactive sea surface temperatures confirm that CRE create the oceanic NEI maximum. Interactions between CRE, NEI, circulation, and land‐sea contrast in surface heat capacity shift precipitation from Southeast to South Asia. CRE thus alter the global partitioning of precipitation between land and ocean and the spatial structure of Earth's strongest monsoon, in ways that can be understood through the NEI.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Scaling of Floods With Geomorphologic Characteristics and Precipitation Variability Across the Conterminous United States

Abstract Accurate flood risk assessment requires a comprehensive understanding of flood sensitivity to regional drivers and climate factors. This paper presents the scaling of floods (duration, peak, volume) with geomorphologic characteristics of the basin (i.e., drainage area, slope, elevation) and precipitation patterns (rainfall accumulation, variability). Long‐term daily streamflow observations over the 20th and early 21st centuries from Hydro‐Climatic Data Network streamgages across the conterminous United States are used to create a flood event database based on their flood stage information. Antecedent daily rainfall accumulation and variability corresponding to these floods are computed using Global Historical Climatology Network daily data set. Two Bayesian scaling models are developed, and the spatial organization of scaling exponents is investigated. The baseline model quantifies the scaling of floods to geomorphologic characteristics. The dynamic model quantifies the scaling of floods to antecedent precipitation distribution which is further conditioned on geomorphologic characteristics. Results show that small and low‐elevation basins have a stronger response to antecedent rainfall distribution in amplifying flood peaks, while high‐elevation steeper basins have a lower response for flood duration and volume. The dynamic models demonstrate that there are significant variations in the flood scaling rates, with the largest rates up to 40% and 4.5% for flood duration, 64% and 44% for peak, and 98% and 40% for volume found across the Northeast, Coastal Southeast, and Northwest with intensifying rainfall accumulation and variability, respectively. This study advances flood predictions by better informing the flood attributes in the context of dynamical land‐atmosphere perturbations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Potential Non-Linearities in the High Latitude Circulation and Ozone Response to Stratospheric Aerosol Injection

The impacts of Stratospheric Aerosol Injection (SAI) on the atmosphere and surface climate depend on when and where the sulfate aerosol precursors are injected, as well as on how much surface cooling is to be achieved. We use a set of CESM2(WACCM6) SAI simulations achieving three different levels of global mean surface cooling and demonstrate that unlike some direct surface climate impacts driven by the reflection of solar radiation by sulfate aerosols, the SAI-induced changes in the high latitude circulation and ozone are more complex and could be non-linear. This manifests in our simulations by disproportionally larger Antarctic springtime ozone loss, significantly larger intra-ensemble spread of the Arctic stratospheric jet and ozone responses, and non-linear impacts on the extratropical modes of surface climate variability under the strongest-cooling SAI scenario compared to the weakest one. These potential non-linearities may add to uncertainties in projections of regional surface impacts under SAI.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Comparing Synoptic Pattern Evolution for Flash‐Flood‐Producing and Non‐Flash‐Flood‐Producing Mesoscale Convective Systems in the United States

Understanding how the short-term evolution of synoptic weather patterns influence Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs) is essential, as these systems are responsible for over half of central U.S. flash floods, leading to substantial socioeconomic and water resource management impacts. This study analyzes long-term MCS data, flash flood reports, and atmospheric reanalyses from 2007 to 2017 using a machine learning clustering algorithm to examine how the synoptic weather patterns evolve prior to MCS initiation. While the clusters reflect seasonal and regional differences in MCS occurrence, they do not consistently distinguish between MCSs that do and do not produce flash floods. Systems in the southern Great Plains are more flood-prone when a synoptic-scale forcing, located near the system, drives strong water vapor transport from the nearby moisture source. More generally under different synoptic weather patterns, a broader precipitating area is the most dominant factor governing MCS flash flood potential.

atmospheric dynamics↗
DOE OSTI2020

End of Green Sahara amplified mid- to late Holocene megadroughts in mainland Southeast Asia

Between 5 and 4 thousand years ago, crippling megadroughts led to the disruption of ancient civilizations across parts of Africa and Asia, yet the extent of these climate extremes in mainland Southeast Asia (MSEA) has never been defined. This is despite archeological evidence showing a shift in human settlement patterns across the region during this period. We report evidence from stalagmite climate records indicating a major decrease of monsoon rainfall in MSEA during the mid- to late Holocene, coincident with African monsoon failure during the end of the Green Sahara. Through a set of modeling experiments, we show that reduced vegetation and increased dust loads during the Green Sahara termination shifted the Walker circulation eastward and cooled the Indian Ocean, causing a reduction in monsoon rainfall in MSEA. Our results indicate that vegetation-dust climate feedbacks from Sahara drying may have been the catalyst for societal shifts in MSEA via ocean-atmospheric teleconnections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Vegetation forcing modulates global land monsoon and water resources in a CO 2 -enriched climate

The global monsoon is characterised by transitions between pronounced dry and wet seasons, affecting food security for two-thirds of the world’s population. Rising atmospheric CO 2 influences the terrestrial hydrological cycle through climate-radiative and vegetation-physiological forcings. How these two forcings affect the seasonal intensity and characteristics of monsoonal precipitation and runoff is poorly understood. Here we use four Earth System Models to show that in a CO 2 -enriched climate, radiative forcing changes drive annual precipitation increases for most monsoon regions. Further, vegetation feedbacks substantially affect annual precipitation in North and South America and Australia monsoon regions. In the dry season, runoff increases over most monsoon regions, due to stomatal closure-driven evapotranspiration reductions and associated atmospheric circulation change. Our results imply that flood risks may amplify in the wet season. However, the lengthening of the monsoon rainfall season and reduced evapotranspiration will shorten the water resources scarcity period for most monsoon regions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Increasing large wildfires over the western United States linked to diminishing sea ice in the Arctic

Abstract The compound nature of large wildfires in combination with complex physical and biophysical processes affecting variations in hydroclimate and fuel conditions makes it difficult to directly connect wildfire changes over fire-prone regions like the western United States (U.S.) with anthropogenic climate change. Here we show that increasing large wildfires during autumn over the western U.S. are fueled by more fire-favorable weather associated with declines in Arctic sea ice during preceding months on both interannual and interdecadal time scales. Our analysis (based on observations, climate model sensitivity experiments, and a multi-model ensemble of climate simulations) demonstrates and explains the Arctic-driven teleconnection through regional circulation changes with the poleward-shifted polar jet stream and enhanced fire-favorable surface weather conditions. The fire weather changes driven by declining Arctic sea ice during the past four decades are of similar magnitude to other leading modes of climate variability such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation that also influence fire weather in the western U.S.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Aerosol-boundary-layer-monsoon interactions amplify semi-direct effect of biomass smoke on low cloud formation in Southeast Asia

Low clouds play a key role in the Earth-atmosphere energy balance and influence agricultural production and solar-power generation. Smoke aloft has been found to enhance marine stratocumulus through aerosol-cloud interactions, but its role in regions with strong human activities and complex monsoon circulation remains unclear. Here we show that biomass burning aerosols aloft strongly increase the low cloud coverage over both land and ocean in subtropical southeastern Asia. The degree of this enhancement and its spatial extent are comparable to that in the Southeast Atlantic, even though the total biomass burning emissions in Southeast Asia are only one-fifth of those in Southern Africa. We find that a synergetic effect of aerosol-cloud-boundary layer interaction with the monsoon is the main reason for the strong semi-direct effect and enhanced low cloud formation in southeastern Asia.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Uncertainty in El Niño-like warming and California precipitation changes linked by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation

Abstract Marked uncertainty in California (CA) precipitation projections challenges their use in adaptation planning in the region already experiencing severe water stress. Under global warming, a westerly jet extension in the North Pacific analogous to the El Niño-like teleconnection has been suggested as a key mechanism for CA winter precipitation changes. However, this teleconnection has not been reconciled with the well-known El Niño-like warming response or the controversial role of internal variability in the precipitation uncertainty. Here we find that internal variability contributes > 70% and > 50% of uncertainty in the CA precipitation changes and the El Niño-like warming, respectively, based on analysis of 318 climate simulations from several multi-model and large ensembles. The Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation plays a key role in each contribution and in connecting the two via the westerly jet extension. This unifying understanding of the role of internal variability in CA precipitation provides critical guidance for reducing and communicating uncertainty to inform adaptation planning.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗