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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 127 records · Page 7

Cost function for low-dimensional manifold topology assessment

Abstract In reduced-order modeling, complex systems that exhibit high state-space dimensionality are described and evolved using a small number of parameters. These parameters can be obtained in a data-driven way, where a high-dimensional dataset is projected onto a lower-dimensional basis. A complex system is then restricted to states on a low-dimensional manifold where it can be efficiently modeled. While this approach brings computational benefits, obtaining a good quality of the manifold topology becomes a crucial aspect when models, such as nonlinear regression, are built on top of the manifold. Here, we present a quantitative metric for characterizing manifold topologies. Our metric pays attention to non-uniqueness and spatial gradients in physical quantities of interest, and can be applied to manifolds of arbitrary dimensionality. Using the metric as a cost function in optimization algorithms, we show that optimized low-dimensional projections can be found. We delineate a few applications of the cost function to datasets representing argon plasma, reacting flows and atmospheric pollutant dispersion. We demonstrate how the cost function can assess various dimensionality reduction and manifold learning techniques as well as data preprocessing strategies in their capacity to yield quality low-dimensional projections. We show that improved manifold topologies can facilitate building nonlinear regression models.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Evaluation of the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System in the Eastern Range Dispersion Assessment System

The Applied Meteorology Unit is conducting an evaluation of the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) contained within the Eastern Range Dispersion Assessment System (ERDAS). ERDAS provides emergency response guidance for operations at the Cape Canaveral Air Force Station and the Kennedy Space Center in the event of an accidental hazardous material release or aborted vehicle launch. The prognostic data from RAMS is available to ERDAS for display and is used to initialize the 45th Range Safety (45 SW/SE) dispersion model. Thus, the accuracy of the 45 SW/SE dispersion model is dependent upon the accuracy of RAMS forecasts. The RAMS evaluation task consists of an objective and subjective component for the Florida warm and cool seasons of 1999-2000. The objective evaluation includes gridded and point error statistics at surface and upper-level observational sites, a comparison of the model errors to a coarser grid configuration of RAMS, and a benchmark of RAMS against the widely accepted Eta model. The warm-season subjective evaluation involves a verification of the onset and movement of the Florida east coast sea breeze and RAMS forecast precipitation. This interim report provides a summary of the RAMS objective and subjective evaluation for the 1999 Florida warm season only.

Case, Jonathan↗

Investigating Sources of Variability and Error in Simulations of Carbon Dioxide in an Urban Region

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions estimation methods that use atmospheric trace gas observations, including inverse modeling techniques, perform better when carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes are more accurately transported and dispersed in the atmosphere by a numerical model. In urban areas, transport and dispersion is particularly difficult to simulate using current mesoscale meteorological models due, in part, to added complexity from surface heterogeneity and fine spatial/temporal scales. It is generally assumed that the errors in GHG estimation methods in urban areas are dominated by errors in transport and dispersion. Other significant errors include, but are not limited to, those from assumed emissions magnitude and spatial distribution. To assess the predictability of simulated trace gas mole fractions in urban observing systems using a numerical weather prediction model, we employ an Eulerian model that combines traditional meteorological variables with multiple passive tracers of atmospheric CO2 from anthropogenic inventories and a biospheric model. The predictability of the Eulerian model is assessed by comparing simulated atmospheric CO2 mole fractions to observations from four in situ tower sites (three urban and one rural) in the Washington DC/Baltimore, MD area for February 2016. Four different gridded fossil fuel emissions inventories along with a biospheric flux model are used to create an ensemble of simulated atmospheric CO2 observations within the model. These ensembles help to evaluate whether the modeled observations are impacted more by the underlying emissions or transport. The spread of modeled observations using the four emission fields indicates the model's ability to distinguish between the different inventories under various meteorological conditions. Overall, the Eulerian model performs well; simulated and observed average CO2 mole fractions agree within 1% when averaged at the three urban sites across the month. However, there can be differences greater than 10% at any given hour, which are attributed to complex meteorological conditions rather than differences in the inventories themselves. On average, the mean absolute error of the simulated compared to actual observations is generally twice as large as the standard deviation of the modeled mole fractions across the four emission inventories. This result supports the assumption, in urban domains, that the predicted mole fraction error relative to observations is dominated by errors in model meteorology rather than errors in the underlying fluxes in winter months. As such, minimizing errors associated with atmospheric transport and dispersion may help improve the performance of GHG estimation models more so than improving flux priors in the winter months. We also find that the errors associated with atmospheric transport in urban domains are not restricted to certain times of day. This suggests that atmospheric inversions should use CO2 observations that have been filtered using meteorological observations rather than assuming that meteorological modeling is most accurate at certain times of day (such as using only mid-afternoon observations).

CO2↗

Spatiotemporal predictions of toxic urban plumes using deep learning

Industrial accidents, chemical spills, and structural fires can release large amounts of harmful materials that disperse into urban atmospheres and impact populated areas. Computer models are typically used to predict the transport of toxic plumes by solving fluid dynamical equations. However, these models can be computationally expensive due to the need for many grid cells to simulate turbulent flow and resolve individual buildings and streets. In emergency response situations, alternative methods are needed that can run quickly and adequately capture important spatiotemporal features. Here, we present a novel deep learning model called ST-GasNet inspired by the mathematical equations that govern the behavior of plumes as they disperse through the atmosphere. ST-GasNet learns the spatiotemporal dependencies from a limited set of temporal sequences of ground-level toxic urban plumes generated by a high-resolution large eddy simulation model. On independent sequences, ST-GasNet accurately predicts the late-time spatiotemporal evolution, given the early-time behavior as an input, even when a building splits a large plume into smaller plumes. By incorporating large-scale wind boundary condition information, ST-GasNet achieves a prediction accuracy of at least 90% on test data for the entire prediction period.

Civil and Environmental Engineering↗

Laws of effluent dispersion in the steady-state atmospheric surface layer in stable and unstable conditions

The two-dimensional diffusion equation has been solved by an integral method to obtain the distribution of ground-level concentration of an inert effluent emitted from a semi-infinite area source in a steady-state and horizontally homogeneous atmospheric surface layer. Mean wind velocity and eddy diffusivity profiles derived from empirically determined flux-profile relations of Businger et al. (1971) for stable and unstable surface layers were used. It is found that concentration as a function of downwind distance can be described by a simple formula over distances of practical interest in surface layer dispersion. Corresponding results for a cross-wind infinite line source are obtained by simple differentiation. The concentration distribution is completely determined by the friction velocity, the Monin-Obukhov length, the roughness length, and the effluent source strength. The generalization of the integral method needed to obtain accurate solutions of the diffusion equation with the given wind velocity and diffusivity profiles is discussed in an appendix.

Lebedeff, S. A.↗

Development of a wide bandwidth heterodyne dispersion interferometer for electron density measurement of atmospheric pressure plasmas

One of the challenges of electron density measurements of an atmospheric pressure plasma (APP) with a laser interferometer is the significant and unwanted phase shift caused by changes in the neutral gas density. These unwanted phase shifts can be mitigated and plasma density measured using an interferometer architecture called a dispersion interferometer (DI). A DI is composed of two nonlinear orientation patterned GaAs crystals for frequency doubling and measures the phase shift induced by a plasma in the interference signal between two second-harmonic beams. Measurement of plasma dynamics or a short plasma pulse in less than a millisecond is enabled with heterodyne detection in a DI using an acousto-optic cell with a frequency of 40 MHz. This heterodyne DI (HDI) is targeted to measure APPs in an electron density range of 10 20 –10 24 m −3 . Finally, the HDI achieves a line-integrated density resolution of 2 × 10 15 m −2 (a phase resolution of 0.005°) with a time constant of 1 μs using ensemble averaging techniques.

atmospheric pressure plasma↗

Simulating Flights of Future Launch Vehicles and Spacecraft

Marshall Aerospace Vehicle Representation in C (MAVERIC) is a computer program for generic, low-to-high-fidelity simulation of the flight(s) of one or more launch vehicle(s) or spacecraft. MAVERIC is designed to accommodate multi-staged vehicles, powered serially or in parallel, with multiple engines, tanks, and cargo elements. Engines can be of jet or conventional rocket types, using either liquid or solid propellants. MAVERIC includes generic subsystem software models for propulsion systems, mass properties, reaction control systems, aerodynamic properties, guidance systems, and navigation systems. Simulations can be started at points other than liftoff. Also included are guidance-system software models that accommodate the ascent, orbit, coasting, deorbiting, entry, terminal-area-energy-management, approach, and landing phases of flight. Options to use different wind profiles and atmospheres are included. A Monte Carlo capability is provided for modeling dispersions associated with atmospheric effects (including winds), propulsion, navigation, aerodynamics, and mass properties. Failures of engines and other subsystems can be modeled. The program is written in the C programming language, which makes it possible for the program to have high degrees of modularity, reusability, and maintainability, thereby also facilitating modification for modeling new vehicles.

McCarter, James W.↗

The Detection, Characterization and Tracking of Recent Aleutian Island Volcanic Ash Plumes and the Assessment of Their Impact on Aviation

The Aleutian Islands of Alaska are home to a number of major volcanoes which periodically present a significant hazard to aviation. During summer of 2008, the Okmok and Kasatochi volcanoes experienced moderate eruptive events. These were followed a dramatic, major eruption of Mount Redoubt in late March 2009. The Redoubt case is extensively covered in this paper. Volcanic ash and SO2 from each of these eruptions dispersed throughout the atmosphere. This created the potential for major problems for air traffic near the ash dispersions and at significant distances downwind. The NASA Applied Sciences Weather Program implements a wide variety of research projects to develop volcanic ash detection, characterization and tracking applications for NASA Earth Observing System and NOAA GOES and POES satellites. Chemistry applications using NASA AURA satellite Ozone Monitoring System (OMI) retrievals produced SO2 measurements to trace the dispersion of volcanic aerosol. This work was complimented by advanced multi-channel imager applications for the discrimination and height assignment of volcanic ash using NASA MODIS and NOAA GOES and POES imager data. Instruments similar to MODIS and OMI are scheduled for operational deployment on NPOESS. In addition, the NASA Calipso satellite provided highly accurate measurements of aerosol height and dispersion for the calibration and validation of these algorithms and for corroborative research studies. All of this work shortens the lead time for transition to operations and ensures that research satellite data and applications are operationally relevant and utilized quickly after the deployment of operational satellite systems. Introduction

Murray, John J.↗

Machine Learning Emulation of Spatial Deposition from a Multi-Physics Ensemble of Weather and Atmospheric Transport Models

In the event of an accidental or intentional hazardous material release in the atmosphere, researchers often run physics-based atmospheric transport and dispersion models to predict the extent and variation of the contaminant spread. These predictions are imperfect due to propagated uncertainty from atmospheric model physics (or parameterizations) and weather data initial conditions. Ensembles of simulations can be used to estimate uncertainty, but running large ensembles is often very time consuming and resource intensive, even using large supercomputers. In this paper, we present a machine-learning-based method which can be used to quickly emulate spatial deposition patterns from a multi-physics ensemble of dispersion simulations. We use a hybrid linear and logistic regression method that can predict deposition in more than 100,000 grid cells with as few as fifty training examples. Logistic regression provides probabilistic predictions of the presence or absence of hazardous materials, while linear regression predicts the quantity of hazardous materials. The coefficients of the linear regressions also open avenues of exploration regarding interpretability—the presented model can be used to find which physics schemes are most important over different spatial areas. A single regression prediction is on the order of 10,000 times faster than running a weather and dispersion simulation. However, considering the number of weather and dispersion simulations needed to train the regressions, the speed-up achieved when considering the whole ensemble is about 24 times. Ultimately, this work will allow atmospheric researchers to produce potential contamination scenarios with uncertainty estimates faster than previously possible, aiding public servants and first responders.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Stability of the surface layer and its relation to the dispersion of primary pollutants in St. Louis

The effects of atmospheric stability on the dispersion of primary pollutants such as CO, total hydrocarbons (THC), and NO were examined in St. Louis. The pollutant levels were measured at 25 stations, temperature at 12 stations at 5 and 30 m height, and wind speed and direction at the 30 m level at 12 stations. Correlation coefficients were generated for pairs of the vertical temperature differences, the log of the mean wind speed reciprocal, the bulk Richardson number, and specific pollutant concentrations. A high correlation was obtained between the thermal stability and the urban concentration of the primary pollutants in the lowest part of the boundary layer. A restricted nighttime dispersion of the pollutants was observed, indicating near-ground increased concentrations at times when the source emissions actually decrease.

Remsberg, E. E.↗

The sand bag model of the dispersion of the cosmic body in the atmosphere

The strength of the extraterrestrial bodies depends on their structure, composition, dimensions, and the history of this body. The fragmentation of the body due to aerodynamic stresses begins at sufficiently large heights above the surface of the Earth. The process of fragmentation and dispersion of the fragments usually is studied by the hydrodynamic or even gasdynamic models. If the fragmentation process begins due to the initial cracks and faults of the body, or this body consists of large boulders glued by ice, the strength of these boulders after fragmentation remains higher than the aerodynamic stresses exerted at the remaining part of the body. It is supposed that fragmentation occurs at initial moment t = 0 at some height z(sub o) above the surface of the air, these fragments remain solid. The possibility of further fragmentation during the remaining part of the trajectory is not taken into account. If the number of these parts is large enough and their size is small in comparison to the initial radius of the body than we can use the sand bag model proposed in qualitative form.

Teterev, A. V.↗

Contributions of Nimbus 7 TOMS Data to Volcanic Study and Hazard Mitigation

Nimbus TOMS data have led to advancements among many volcano-related scientific disciplines, from the initial ability to quantify SO2 clouds leading to derivations of eruptive S budgets and fluxes, to tracking of individual clouds, assessing global volcanism and atmospheric impacts. Some of the major aspects of TOMS-related research, listed below, will be reviewed and updated: (1) Measurement of volcanic SO2 clouds: Nimbus TOMS observed over 100 individual SO2 clouds during its mission lifetime; large explosive eruptions are now routinely and reliably measured by satellite. (2) Eruption processes: quantification of SO2 emissions have allowed assessments of eruption sulfur budgets, the evaluation of "excess" sulfur, and inferences of H2S emissions. (3) Detection of ash: TOMS data are now used to detect volcanic particulates in the atmosphere, providing complementary analyses to infrared methods of detection. Paired TOMS and AVHRR studies have provided invaluable information on volcanic cloud compositions and processes. (4) Cloud tracking and hazard mitigation: volcanic clouds can be considered gigantic tracers in the atmosphere, and studies of the fates of these clouds have led to new knowledge of their physical and chemical dispersion in the atmosphere for predictive models. (5) Global trends: the long term data set has provided researchers an unparalleled record of explosive volcanism, and forms a key component in assessing annual to decadal trends in global S emissions. (6) Atmospheric impacts: TOMS data have been linked to independent records of atmospheric change, in order to compare cause and effect processes following a massive injection of SO2 into the atmosphere. (7) Future TOMS instruments and applications: Nimbus TOMS has given way to new satellite platforms, with several wavelength and resolution modifications. New efforts to launch a geostationary TOMS could provide unprecedented observations of volcanic activity.

Krueger, Arlin J.↗