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At least 127 records · Page 7

Can reanalysis products outperform mesoscale numerical weather prediction models in modeling the wind resource in simple terrain?

Mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are generally considered more accurate than reanalysis products in characterizing the wind resource at heights of interest for wind energy, given their finer spatial resolution and more comprehensive physics. However, advancements in the latest ERA-5 reanalysis product motivate an assessment on whether ERA-5 can model wind speeds as well as a state-of-the-art NWP model – the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. We consider this research question for both simple terrain and offshore applications. Specifically, we compare wind profiles from ERA-5 and the preliminary WRF runs of the Wind Integration National Dataset (WIND) Toolkit Long-term Ensemble Dataset (WTK-LED) to those observed by lidars at a site in Oklahoma, United States, and in a United States Atlantic offshore wind energy area. We find that ERA-5 shows a significant negative bias (~-1ms-1) at both locations, with a larger bias at the land-based site. WTK-LED-predicted wind speed profiles show a limited negative bias (~-0.5ms-1) offshore and a slight positive bias (~+0.5ms-1) at the land-based site. On the other hand, we find that ERA-5 outperforms WTK-LED in terms of the centered root-mean-square error (cRMSE) and correlation coefficient, for both the land-based and offshore cases, in all atmospheric stability conditions. We find that WTK-LED's higher cRMSE is caused by its tendency to overpredict the amplitude of the wind speed diurnal cycle. At the land-based site, this is partially caused by wind plant wake effects not being accurately captured by WTK-LED.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Validation of turbulence intensity as simulated by the Weather Research and Forecasting model off the US northeast coast

We report turbulence intensity (TI) is often used to quantify the strength of turbulence in wind energy applications and serves as the basis of standards in wind turbine design. Thus, accurately characterizing the spatiotemporal variability in TI should lead to improved predictions of power production. Nevertheless, turbulence measurements over the ocean are far less prevalent than over land due to challenges in instrumental deployment, maintenance, and operation. Atmospheric models such as mesoscale (weather prediction) and large-eddy simulation (LES) models are commonly used in the wind energy industry to assess the spatial variability of a given site. However, the TI derivation from atmospheric models has not been well examined. An algorithm is proposed in this study to realize online calculation of TI in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Simulated TI is divided into two components depending on scale, including sub-grid (parameterized based on turbulence kinetic energy (TKE)) and grid resolved. The sensitivity of sea surface temperature (SST) on simulated TI is also tested. An assessment is performed by using observations collected during a field campaign conducted from February to June 2020 near the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Martha's Vineyard Coastal Observatory. Results show that while simulated TKE is generally smaller than the lidar-observed value, wind speed bias is usually small. Overall, this leads to a slight underestimation in sub-grid-scale estimated TI. Improved SST representation subsequently reduces model biases in atmospheric stability as well as wind speed and sub-grid TI near the hub height. Large TI events in conjunction with mesoscale weather systems observed during the studied period pose a challenge to accurately estimating TI from models. Due to notable uncertainty in accurately simulating those events, this suggests summing up sub-grid and resolved TI may not be an ideal solution. Efforts in further improving skills in simulating mesoscale flow and cloud systems are necessary as the next steps.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Long-term uncertainty quantification in WRF-modeled offshore wind resource off the US Atlantic coast

Uncertainty quantification of long-term modeled wind speed is essential to ensure stakeholders can best leverage wind resource numerical data sets. Offshore, this need is even stronger given the limited availability of observations of wind speed at heights relevant for wind energy purposes and the resulting heavier relative weight of numerical data sets for wind energy planning and operational projects. In this analysis, we consider the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's 21-year updated numerical offshore data set for the US East Coast and provide a methodological framework to leverage both floating lidar and near-surface buoy observations in the region to quantify uncertainty in the modeled hub-height wind resource. We first show how using a numerical ensemble to quantify the uncertainty in modeled wind speed is insufficient to fully capture the model deviation from real-world observations. Next, we train and validate a random forest to vertically extrapolate near-surface wind speed to hub height using the available short-term lidar data sets in the region. We then apply this model to vertically extrapolate the long-term near-surface buoy wind speed observations to hub height so that they can be directly compared to the long-term numerical data set. We find that the mean 21-year uncertainty in 140 m hourly average wind speed is slightly lower than 3 m s -1 (roughly 30m% of the mean observed wind speed) across the considered region. Atmospheric stability is strictly connected to the modeled wind speed uncertainty, with stable conditions associated with an uncertainty which is, on average, about 20 % larger than the overall mean uncertainty.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Estimates of the wind speeds required for particle motion on Mars

Threshold wind speeds for setting particles into motion on Mars are estimated by evaluating experimentally observed threshold friction velocities and determining the ratio of this velocity to the threshold wind speed at the top of earth's atmospheric boundary layer (ABL). Turning angles between the direction of the wind at the top of the ABL and the wind stress at the surface are also estimated. Detailed consideration is given to the dependence of the threshold wind speed at the top of the ABL on particle diameter, surface pressure, air temperature, atmospheric stability and composition, surface roughness, and interparticle cohesion. The results are applied to interpret a number of phenomena that have been observed on Mars and are attributable to aeolian processes. It is shown that: (1) minimum threshold wind speeds of about 50 to 100 m/sec are required to cause particle motion on Mars under 'favorable' conditions; (2) particle motion should be infrequent and strongly correlated with proximity to small topographical features; (3) in general, particle motion occurs more readily at night than during the day, in winter polar areas than equatorial areas around noon, and for H2O or CO2 ice particles than for silicate particles; and (4) the boundary between saltating and suspendible particles is located at a particle diameter of about 100 microns.

Pollack, J. B.↗

Some problems with the interpretation of recent microwave background observations in the direction of galaxy clusters, or, beware of negative antenna temperatures

Recently reported observations of the 3-K microwave background in the direction of rich clusters of galaxies should be viewed as placing stringent limits on the mass of cooler ionized gas within the clusters, rather than as a verification of thermal bremsstrahlung models for cluster X-ray sources. At the high radio frequencies employed in the observations, there is a positive contribution to the observed source-brightness distributions from free-free emission by any cooler gas. This can overwhelm the anticipated inverse Compton diminution of the background radiation, even when the total mass in cooler gas is significantly less than the mass of hot plasma required to explain the X-ray source. Future experiments of this type should be conducted only when atmospheric stability is sufficient to permit lengthy drift scans across the clusters. Extreme care must be taken to remove the contributions from any discrete sources.

Tarter, j. C.↗

Structure of the atmosphere of Venus up to 110 kilometers - Preliminary results from the four Pioneer Venus entry probes

Each of the four Pioneer Venus probes carried instruments to measure the structure of the atmosphere, both below the cloud deck and above it to an altitude of at least 120 km. Preliminary results are presented on lower-atmosphere structure, thermal contrasts, and atmospheric stability. Altitudes derived from the data are given along with the temperature profile from 67 to 105 km, derived from the first analysis of the entry data from the north probe. All four probes lost temperature data at the 640 K level, which is at an altitude of about 12 to 14 km. Values of temperature and pressure at touchdown are presented in a table. The pressure differences imply terrain elevation differences at the landing sites. Above 40 km, the measured profile moves from near-adiabatic toward the theoretical profile for radiative equilibrium.

Seiff, A.↗

Some diurnal properties of clouds over the Martian volcanoes

The diurnal properties of cloud systems over Martian volcanoes observed by the Viking Orbiter spacecraft are discussed. Photographic sequences of diurnal cloud development are presented for clouds in the vicinity of Elysium Mons and Ascraeus Mons, and the rapid growth of cloudiness starting at 11.23 LT is noted. The low-lying fogs and convective afternoon clouds observed are characterized as water ice clouds, while the cirrus-type clouds may be composed of CO2. The diurnal development of the clouds is then explained in terms of local atmospheric stability and circulation as influenced by surface topography and thermal properties. Consideration is also given to possible reasons for the pronounced seasonal variations in cloudiness.

Hunt, G. E.↗

Determination of surface stress by Seasat-SASS - A case study with JASIN data

The values of sea surface stress determined with the dissipation method and those determined with a surface-layer model from observations on F.S. Meteor during the Joint Air-Sea Interaction (JASIN) Experiment are compared with the backscatter coefficients measured by the scatterometer SASS on the satellite Seasat. This study demonstrates that SASS can be used to determine surface stress directly as well as wind speed. The quality of the surface observations used in the calibration of the retrieval algorithms, however, is important. This sample of measurements disagrees with the predictions by the existing wind retrieval algorithm under non-neutral conditions and the discrepancies depend on atmospheric stability.

Liu, W. T.↗

Estimation of the average exchanges in momentum and latent heat between the atmosphere and the oceans with Seasat observations

Ocean-surface momentum flux and latent heat flux are determined from Seasat-A data from 1978 and compared with ship observations. Momentum flux was measured using the Seasat-A scatterometer system (SASS) heat flux, with the scanning multichannel MW radiometer (SMMR). Ship measurements were quality selected and averaged to increase their reliability. The fluxes were computed using a bulk parameterization technique. It is found that although SASS effectively measures momentum flux, variations in atmospheric stability and sea-surface temperature cause deviations which are not accounted for by the present data-processing algorithm. The SMMR-latent-heat-flux algorithm, while needing refinement, is shown to given estimations to within 35 W/sq m in its present form, which removes systematic error and uses an empirically determined transfer coefficient.

Liu, W. T.↗

The Controlled Ecological Life Support System

A Controlled Ecological Life Support System (CELSS) is needed which would convert waste water to usable water, waste products to food, and CO2 to O2 to permit long duration space flight. Algae, representing the autotroph, and mice, representing the heterotroph are placed together in a controlled, gas closed environment to examine the gas exchange rate of O2 and CO2. The eventual goal is to develop biological controls that can stabilize atmospheres.

Ko, K.↗

Rotor noise due to atmospheric turbulence ingestion. I - Fluid mechanics

In the present analytical procedure for the prediction of helicopter rotor noise generation due to the ingestion of atmospheric turbulence, different models for turbulence fluid mechanics and the ingestion process are combined. The mean flow and turbulence statistics associated with the atmospheric boundary layer are modeled with attention to the effects of atmospheric stability length, windspeed, and altitude. The turbulence field can be modeled as isotropic, locally stationary, and homogeneous. For large mean flow contraction ratios, accurate predictions of turbulence vorticity components at the rotor face requires the incorporation of the differential drift of fluid particles on adjacent streamlines.

Simonich, J. C.↗

Chemical interactions between the present-day Martian atmosphere and surface minerals

Thermochemical and photochemical reactions between surface minerals and present-day atmospheric constituents are predicted to produce microscopic effects on the surfaces of mineral grains. Relevant reactions hypothesized in the literature include conversions of silicates and volcanic glasses to clay minerals, conversion of ferrous to ferric compounds, and formation of carbonates, nitrates, and sulfates. These types of surface-atmosphere interactions are important for addressing issues such as chemical weathering of minerals, biological potential of the surface environment, and atmospheric stability in both present and past Martian epochs. It is emphasized that the product of these reactions will be observable and interpretable on the microscopic surface layers of Martian surface rocks using modern techniques with obvious implications for sample return from Mars. Macroscopic products of chemical weathering reactions in past Martian epochs are also expected in Martian surface material. These products are expected not only as a result of reactions similar to those proceeding today but also due to aqueous reactions in past epochs in which liquid water was putatively present. It may prove very difficult or impossible however to determine definitively from the relic macroscopic product alone either the exact weathering process which led to its formation or the identity of its weathered parent mineral. The enormous advantages of studying Martian chemical weathering by investigating the microscopic products of present-day chemical reactions on sample surfaces are very apparent.

Prinn, Ronald↗

Chemical interactions between the present-day Martian atmosphere and surface minerals: Implications for sample return

Thermochemical and photochemical reactions between surface minerals and present-day atmospheric constituents are predicted to produce microscopic effects on the surface of mineral grains. Relevant reactions hypothesized in the literature include conversions of silicates and volcanic glasses to clay minerals, conversion of ferrous to ferric compounds, and formation of carbonates, nitrates, and sulfates. These types of surface-atmosphere weathering of minerals, biological potential of the surface environment, and atmospheric stability in both present and past Martian epochs. It is emphasized that the product of these reactions will be observable and interpretable on the microscopic surface layers of Martian surface rocks using modern techniques with obvious implications for sample return from Mars. Macroscopic products of chemical weathering reactions in past Martian epochs are also expected in Martian surface materials. These products are expected not only as a result of reactions similar to those proceeding today but also due to aqueous reactions in past epochs in which liquid water was putatively present. It may prove very difficult or impossible, however, to determine definitively from the relic macroscopic product alone either the exact weathering process which led to its formation of the identity of its weathering parent mineral. The enormous advantages of studying the Martian chemical weathering by investigating the microscopic products of present-day chemical reactions on sample surfaces are very apparent.

Prinn, Ronald↗

Noise produced by turbulent flow into a rotor: Theory manual for atmospheric turbulence prediction and mean flow and turbulence contraction prediction

Prediction of helicopter main rotor noise due to ingestion of atmospheric turbulence was analyzed. The analysis combines several different models that describe the fluid mechanics of the turbulence and the ingestion process. Two models, atmospheric turbulence, and mean flow and turbulence contraction were covered. The third model, covered in a separate report, describes the rotor acoustic mode. The method incorporates the atmospheric turbulence model and a rapid distortion turbulence contraction description to determine the statistics of the anisotropic turbulence at the rotor plane. The analytical basis for a module was provided which was incorporated in NASA's ROTONET helicopter noise prediction program. The mean flow and turbulence statistics associated with the atmospheric boundary layer were modeled including effects of atmospheric stability length, wind speed, and altitude. The turbulence distortion process is modeled as a deformation of vortex filaments (which represent the turbulence field) by a mean flow field due to the rotor inflow.

Simonich, J. C.↗

MU radar observation of a mesospheric gravity wave breaking caused by convective instability

In recent measurements of mesospheric winds with the MU radar at Shigaraki (34.9 N, 136.1 E), Japan, a couple of wind velocity data was obtained showing that a monochromatic inertia-gravity wave was propagating vertically in the mesosphere. The data show that the velocity amplitude of the wave did not increase exponentially above a height and further show that the wave form had broken down at a level. Evaluating the changes of the atmospheric stability in the wave field from the measured wind data and from the estimated wave parameters, the breakdown of the wave was shown to be connected with the occurrence of convective instability in the wave field.

Muraoka, Y.↗

Validation of lidar and satellite remote sensing

Validation of observations is an important part of any remote sensing program. With respect to aerosols this is exceedingly difficult because each technique typically measures a different aerosol parameter. Correlative sensors, therefore, must be capable of measuring the same parameter over the same size range or include enough measurements to properly characterize the aerosol, possibly with the assistance of models. In any correlative measurement program, simultaneity in space and time is required. This can be less restrictive during periods of atmospheric stability. The discussion is presented which is focused on the validation programs developed for NASA's Stratospheric Aerosol Measurement (SAM II), and the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiments I and II (SAGE I and II). To date these were limited to the stratosphere. Since satellite sensors are capable of providing near-global and long-term observations, periodic correlative observations over various global locations and seasons are required for assuring that data quality is unchanged, or for understanding any changes observed.

Mccormick, M. P.↗

Lidar analysis techniques for use in the atmospheric boundary layer

There is a growing body of observational and theoretical evidence which suggests that local climate characteristics are associated with variations in the earth's surface. The link between surface variability and local-scale processes must be made if we are to improve our understanding of the feedback mechanisms involved in surface-atmosphere dynamics. However, to understand these interactions, the surface-atmosphere interface must be studied as a large-scale spatial system. Lidars are ideal tools to study the spatial properties of the atmosphere. The described techniques were developed for use with the Los Alamos Water Raman-Lidar, but are applicable to many other types of lidar. The methodology of the analysis of lidar data is summarized in order to determine meteorological parameters in the atmospheric boundary layer. The techniques are not exhaustive but are intended to show the depth and breadth of the information which can be obtained from lidars. Two methods for the computation of water-vapor fluxes were developed. The first uses the fact that the water vapor concentration in the vertical direction follows a logarithmic profile when corrected for atmospheric stability. The second method involves using inertial dissipation techniques in which lidar-derived spatial and temporal power spectra are used to determine the flux.

Eichinger, William E.↗

Modeling cumulus convection with a one-dimensional updraft core model

A model developed for use in satellite rainfall retrievals and possibly useful in other areas of research such as in the development of cloud microphysical schemes or in the study of acid rain, is described. This model is unique in that it models explicitly only a small region about the central axis of the updraft, thus avoiding large errors that may occur by averaging variables across the entire updraft. Comparison of the model output with two 3D cloud model simulations proved to be ideal for utilization in the development of this model due to the small wind shear in these cases and to the significant difference in atmospheric stability in the soundings that were used.

Ridout, James A.↗