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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 127 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

First Assessment of Cloud‐Land Coupling in LASSO Large‐Eddy Simulations

Abstract To enhance our understanding of cloud simulations over land, this study provides the first assessment of coupling between cloud and land surface in the Large‐Eddy Simulation (LES) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Symbiotic Simulation and Observation (LASSO) activity for the shallow convection scenario. The analysis of observation data reveals a diurnal cycle of cloud‐land coupling, which co‐varies with surface fluxes. However, coupled (or decoupled) cumulus clouds are inadequately simulated, manifesting as a too‐high (or low) occurrence frequency during the afternoon. This discrepancy is mirrored by the overestimated cloud liquid water path and cloud‐top height. These overestimations are linked to the overpredicted boundary‐layer development and the easier trigger of shallow convection misrepresented in LES runs. Our study underscores the need to improve the representations of boundary‐layer processes and cloud‐land interactions within LES to better simulate shallow clouds in the future.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Time Evolution and Diurnal Variability of the Parametric Sensitivity of Turbine-Height Winds in the MYNN-EDMF Parameterization

The Mellor-Yamada-Nakanishi-Niino (MYNN) parameterization applied in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model has been augmented to include the Eddy-Diffusion Mass-Flux (EDMF) approach to better represent transport by boundary-layer eddies. This change includes the addition of new parameters associated with convective updrafts and boundary-layer clouds. These additions lead to new parametric sensitivities in the hub-height wind speed compared to simulations using the standard MYNN parameterization that were explored previously. This work builds on efforts focused on WRF’s MYNN parameterization by examining the sensitivity of hub-height wind speed to parameters in the MYNN-EDMF parameterization as a function of simulation lead time. Summer and winter periods were selected from the second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2). Five sets of simulations were completed for each season, with lead times ranging from 2 to 6 days. The results show that the sensitivity to the new parameters associated with the EDMF scheme is generally small compared to other parameters, with the largest impact in convective boundary layers. The spread in the perturbed parameter ensembles was found to grow quickly over the first 8 to 19 hours in the summer simulations and 17 to 24 hours in the winter simulations with little change after that, regardless of the simulation length. A strong diurnal cycle in the parameter sensitivity was also found associated with changes in the atmospheric stability, as well as an increase in the sensitivity to the entrainment parameter used in the EDMF parameterization that is associated with increasing fractional areas covered by plumes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Quantifying wind plant blockage under stable atmospheric conditions

Wind plant blockage reduces the wind velocity upstream undermining turbine performance for the first row of the plant. We assess how atmospheric stability modifies the induction zone of a wind plant in flat terrain. We also explore different approaches to quantifying the magnitude and extent of the induction zone from field-like observations. To investigate the influence from atmospheric stability, we compare simulations of two stable boundary layers using the Weather Research and Forecasting model in large-eddy simulation mode, representing wind turbines using the generalized actuator disk approach. We find a faster cooling rate at the surface, which produces a stronger stably stratified boundary layer, amplifies the induction zone of both an isolated turbine and of a large wind plant. A statistical analysis on the hub-height wind speed field shows wind slowdowns only extend far upstream (up to 15D) of a wind plant in strong stable boundary layers. To evaluate different ways of measuring wind plant blockage from field-like observations, we consider various ways of estimating the freestream velocity upstream of the plant. Sampling a large area upstream is the most accurate approach to estimating the freestream conditions, and thus of measuring the blockage effect. Also, the choice of sampling method may induce errors of the same order as the velocity deficit in the induction zone.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Characterization of wind speed and directional shear at the AWAKEN field campaign site

The American wake experiment (AWAKEN) is taking place in northern Oklahoma, USA, close to the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Southern Great Plains (ARM SGP) atmospheric observatory. The planning for the deployment of the instruments in this observational field campaign required an assessment of the wind characteristics of the site. This paper analyzes long-term data collected by instruments at the ARM SGP observatory to characterize the winds near the AWAKEN site. The analysis shows that this site experiences high wind shear and veer events with a large number of nocturnal low-level jets. A total of 7086 low-level jet wind profiles over 6 years are examined and found to be dominant from the south and southeast. Significant nocturnal wind veer is observed, which causes southerly wind near the surface to become westerly wind aloft. By identifying a strong relationship between atmospheric stability and wind shear, the wind shear at the site is predicted using the Monin–Obukhov similarity theory (MOST) and validated with the observational data collected by a scanning Doppler lidar. The results show that wind speed at a height of 91 m, a proxy hub height for wind turbines in this area, can be predicted from data collected at a height of 10 m with a bias of −0.35 and 0.65 m s−1 in unstable and stable atmospheric boundary layers, respectively. The bias of the predicted wind speed is mostly in the region of low wind speed, and wind speed above 5 m s−1 at a height of 91 m can be predicted with a bias of less than 0.2 m s−1, and the limitations of the MOST in predicting winds during the stably stratified boundary layer is well-observed.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Relationships Between Precipitation Properties and Large-Scale Conditions During Subsidence at the Eastern North Atlantic Observatory

Three years of reanalysis and ground-based observations collected at the Eastern North Atlantic (ENA) observatory are analyzed to document the properties of rain and boundary layer clouds, and their relationship with the large-scale environment during general subsidence conditions and following cold front passages. Clouds in the wake of cold fronts exhibit on average a 10% higher propensity to precipitate and higher rain-to-cloud fraction than cloud found in general subsidence conditions. Similarities in the seasonal cycle of rain and of large-scale properties suggest that the large-scale conditions created by the cold front passage are responsible for the unique properties of the rain forming in its wake. The identification of monotonic relationships between rain-to-cloud fraction and rain rate with surface forcing and boundary layer stability parameters as well as between virga base height with stability and humidity measures further supports that large-scale conditions impact precipitation variability. Likewise, these relationships between the large-scale and rain properties are less clear than those established between cloud and rain properties suggesting that cloud macrophysics have a more direct impact on the properties of rain than the large-scale environment. The applicability of previously documented relationships between rain properties and cloud thickness is tested and the relationships adjusted to accommodate the complex shallow clouds and melting precipitation observed to occur in the ENA region. Furthermore, establishing these relationships opens up opportunities for parametrization development and suggest that a realistic representation of precipitation properties in models relies on the accurate representation of both clouds and the large-scale environment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Benchmarking Near-Surface Winds in the HRRR Analyses Using Multisource Observations over Complex Terrain in the Southeastern United States

Wind energy plays a crucial role in sustainable power generation, yet its full potential in the southeast United States (SEUS) remains underexplored. This study advances wind resource assessment in the SEUS using existing regional modeling and multisource observations. We find that terrain complexity, influenced by orography and forest canopy, significantly impacts the accuracy of modeled wind speed. While the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model effectively simulates wind profiles over flat, nonforested terrain, larger errors are produced above forest canopies, and particularly for those stands in hilly and mountainous terrain where there are no observations aloft that could be used by HRRR’s data assimilation software. Seasonal variations, e.g., changes in the leaf area index, further complicate the relationship between terrain complexity and simulation errors. Here, our findings emphasize the critical need for comprehensive wind profile measurements, extending from below the canopy to height above the canopy and through the lower planetary boundary layer, to fully quantify model performance over and near forests, and for improving wind resource assessment, planning, and management. This study provides valuable insights not only for further model development but also for future field campaign deployment with the goal of further improving our understanding of wind resources in the region.

Complex terrain↗
DOE OSTI2022

dlppi2 (b1)

The Doppler lidar (DL) is an active remote-sensing instrument that provides range- and time-resolved measurements of the line-of-sight component of air velocity (i.e., radial velocity) and attenuated aerosol backscatter. The DL operates in the near-infrared and is sensitive to backscatter from atmospheric aerosol, which are assumed to be ideal tracers of atmospheric wind fields. The DL works by transmitting short pulses of infrared laser light into the atmosphere. Atmospheric aerosols scatter a small fraction of that light energy back to the transceiver, where it is collected and recorded as a time-resolved signal. From the delay between the outgoing pulse and the backscattered signal, the instrument infers the distance to the scattering volume. Coherent detection is used to measure the Doppler frequency shift of the backscatter signal. This is accomplished by mixing the backscatter signal with a reference laser beam (i.e., local oscillator) of known frequency. The onboard signal processor then determines the Doppler frequency shift from the spectrum of the mixed signal. The Doppler frequency shift and thus the radial air velocity is determined from the peak of the Doppler spectrum. The attenuated backscatter is determined from the energy content of the Doppler spectra. The DL provides accurate measurements of radial velocity in regions of the atmosphere where aerosol concentrations are high enough to ensure good signal-to-noise ratio. Thus, valid data are usually limited to the atmospheric boundary layer where aerosol is ubiquitous. Valid measurements can also be obtained in elevated aerosol layers or in optically thin clouds above the boundary layer. Most of the ARM DLs have full upper-hemispheric scanning capability, enabling 3D mapping of turbulent flows in the atmospheric boundary layer. With the scanner pointed vertically, the DL provides height- and time-resolved measurements of vertical velocity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Grounding our Understanding of the Impacts of Boreal Forest Expansion on Shallow Cumulus Clouds with a Simple Modeling Framework

Abstract The expansion of the boreal forest poleward is a potentially important driver of feedbacks between the land surface and Arctic climate. A growing body of work has highlighted the importance of differences in evaporative resistance between different possible future Arctic land covers, which in turn alters humidity and cloudiness in the boundary layer, for these feedbacks. While thus far this problem has been studied primarily with complex Earth system models, we turn to a locally focused, idealized model capable of diagnosing and testing the sensitivity of first-order processes connecting vegetation, the atmospheric boundary layer, and low clouds in this critical region. This allows us to benchmark the mechanisms and results at the center of predictions from larger-scale simulations. A surface dominated by broadleaf trees, characterized by higher albedo and lower surface evaporative resistance, drives cooling and moistening of the boundary layer relative to a surface of needleleaf trees, characterized by lower albedo and higher surface evaporative resistance. Differences in evaporative resistance between these hypothetical Arctic vegetation covers are of equal importance to changes in albedo for the initial response of the boundary layer to boreal expansion, even with our idealized approach. However, compensation between the elevation of the lifting condensation level (LCL) and more rapid growth of the mixed layer over higher evaporative resistance surfaces can minimize changes in the favorability of shallow clouds over different land cover types under some conditions. We then perform two tests on the sensitivity of this compensating effect, to changes in water availability, represented first by a reduction in boundary layer humidity and then by both a reduction in humidity and soil moisture available to our vegetation surface. Finally, given the importance of this potential LCL–mixed-layer height compensation in our idealized modeling results, we look to determine its relevance in observational data from a field campaign in boreal Finland. These observations do confirm that such a coupling plays an important role in cumulus-topped boundary layers over a needleleaf forest surface. While our results confirm some underlying mechanisms at the center of prior work with Earth system models, they also provide motivation for future work to constrain the impact of boreal forest expansion. This will include both large eddy simulations to examine the impact of processes and feedbacks not resolved by a mixed-layer model, as well as a more systematic evaluation and comparison of relevant observations at the site in Finland and sites from prior boreal field campaigns. Significance Statement Clouds and vegetation are both important components of the climate system that interact across a range of scales. These interactions are central to understanding how changes at the land surface feedback on climate. For example, if a forest expands or recedes, diagnosing how that will impact clouds will determine whether you predict warming or cooling temperatures from that shift in the forest area. These predictions are often made with complex Earth system models, but we look to a more idealized representation of the land–atmosphere system to diagnose how shallow clouds should respond to changes in surface properties with different scenarios of boreal forest expansion at a more foundational level. This both grounds our understanding of previous analysis and provides helpful direction for future studies of this relevant and impactful land cover change.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2020

Long-range Doppler lidar measurements of wind turbine wakes and their interaction with turbulent atmospheric boundary-layer flow at Perdigao 2017

As part of the Perdigão 2017 campaign, vertical RHI (range-height indicator) scans with long-range pulsed Doppler wind lidars were performed aligned with the main wind direction and a wind turbine (WT) located on a mountain ridge. The measurements are used to not only retrieve flow velocities, but also their variance and - by using the turbulent broadening of the Doppler spectrum - also turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) dissipation rate. The study shows that turbulence in the WT wake is dependent on the turbulence of the inflow, but also on atmospheric stability. In stable atmospheric conditions, wakes could be analyzed up to five rotor diameters downstream (D) and showed the maximum turbulence in the wake at 2-3 D, whereas in unstable conditions, the maximum was found at 2 D and the wake could not be detected further than 3 D. A clear dependency of wake turbulence enhancement on inflow turbulence intensity is found, which levels out to no further enhancement at turbulence intensities of 30%.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Gulf of Mexico Offshore Wind Energy Hurricane Risk Assessment

NREL's feasibility assessment of offshore wind in the Gulf of Mexico concluded that hurricane risk was one of the major challenges that would need to be overcome for a mature offshore wind industry to develop in the Gulf of Mexico. To ensure the robust design of wind turbines in the Gulf of Mexico, it is critical to understand the added risk posed by the threat of major hurricanes, as those affecting the Gulf of Mexico region have a significant potential to exceed design limits prescribed by the International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) wind design standards. To satisfy this charge, this project defines the wind hazard for the Gulf of Mexico Offshore Wind Energy area using the hurricane hazard model develop by Applied Research Associates and published extensively in the open literature. In doing so, the return periods associated with the IEC Class 1A and Typhoon Class limit-state hurricanes are estimated on a grid with nominal resolution of 10 km to determine where hurricane risk results in the exceedance of the IEC design criteria. On the same grid, wind speeds hazard contours associated with return periods varying from 50 to 1,000 years are also estimated. An additional challenge in assessing hurricane wind speed risk in the Gulf of Mexico arises from inconsistent terminology across the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale and the IEC design criteria. Saffir-Simpson definitions are based on 1-minute sustained wind speeds estimated at 10-m height over marine terrain, while the IEC uses a different averaging period (3-second versus 1-minute) and reference height (assumed herein a hub height of 150 m versus 10 m). Employing the latest research on turbulence characteristics of the hurricane boundary layer, conversions between various durations (e.g., 3-seconds, 1-minute, 10-minutes, 1-hour) and between elevations near the surface (10 m) to near hub height (assumed herein 150 m) are developed. IEC Class 1A and Typhoon Class limit states are also provided in terms of an equivalent Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind speed category.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

On the Departure from Monin–Obukhov Surface Similarity and Transition to the Convective Mixed Layer

Large-eddy simulations are used to evaluate mean profile similarity in the convective boundary layer (CBL). Particular care is taken regarding the grid sensitivity of the profiles and the mitigation of inertial oscillations in the simulation spin-up. The nondimensional gradients Φ for wind speed and air temperature generally align with Monin–Obukhov similarity across cases but have a steeper slope than predicted within each profile. The same trend has been noted in several other recent studies. The Businger-Dyer relations are modified here with an exponential cutoff term to account for the decay in Φ to first-order approximation, yielding improved similarity from approximately 0.05z i to above 0.3z i , where z i is the CBL depth. The necessity for the exponential correction is attributed to an extended transition from surface scaling to zero gradient in the mixed layer, where the departure from Monin–Obukhov similarity may be negligible at the surface but becomes substantial well below the conventional surface layer height of 0.1 z i .

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

California Offshore Wind Resource Bias Investigation and Correction [Slides]

This presentation highlights the findings of an investigation into the causes of high wind speed bias in offshore California's 20-year wind resource dataset, CA20, released by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) in 2020. Utilizing observations from floating lidars deployed by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), considerable bias in modeled hub-height winds was identified. The study reveals that the choice of planetary boundary layer (PBL) scheme significantly impacts wind speed accuracy, with the less common Yonsei University (YSU) scheme nearly eliminating bias compared to the widely used Mellor-Yamada-Nakanishi-Niino (MYNN) scheme. Furthermore, it shows that one of the key factors contributing to this modeled bias is the fact that MYNN overestimates the frequency of stable atmospheric conditions in offshore California. As a result, an updated dataset, NOW-23, incorporating YSU as the PBL scheme, has been produced.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Boundary-Layer-Coupled and Decoupled Clouds in Global Storm-Resolving Models: Comparisons With the ARM Observations

The accurate representation of interactions between clouds and planetary boundary layer (PBL) is a persistent challenge in climate models, critical for simulating surface energy budget. The emergence of kilometer-grid-scale global storm resolving models (GSRMs) offers the potential for enhanced details of PBL processes in these complex interactions. This study evaluates the representation of PBL-coupled and decoupled clouds in nine GSRM simulations against extensive ground-based observations by the Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program, across six sites encompassing diverse regimes such as marine and continental environments in tropics and midlatitude. By differentiating coupling based on the relative positions between cloud bases and PBL tops, our analysis focuses on the simulation of PBL height, cloud frequency, position and vertical extent. The GSRMs generally exhibit commendable agreements with observed cloud structures and PBL diurnal cycles across different ARM sites. In contrast to the relatively consistent representation of decoupled clouds, discrepancies exist between the simulated and the observed coupled clouds, particularly in areas of intense convection, for example, over tropical rainforests and mountainous regions. These biases are probably associated with the models' tendency to underestimate the boundary layer humidity and the frequency of coupled clouds within different ranges of PBL heights. This study underscores the importance for continuous improvements in the representation of boundary layer and convection within these global kilometer-grid-scale models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

A GPU-based Approach for Path Planning Optimization via Travel Length Reduction

Typically, before constructing an object with an additive manufacturing system, the 3D object must be sent through a process called slicing. Slicing converts a 3D object commonly in the form of an STL file into a set of layers by horizontally intersecting a plane with the object at various heights. At each height, called a layer, multiple 2D polygons can be generated. Each polygon represents a boundary for solid geometry and is called an island. Each island is then comprised of multiple path types in an attempt to optimally fill the polygon. To move between each island and each islands’ paths, travels are inserted. Travels are simply motion by the system to move from one area of construction to another. Travels do not contribute to the construction of the object, and so, are considered wasted motion. In large-scale additive manufacturing, objects can be quite large and the distance between islands can be large as well. As a result, these travels can waste a significant amount of time. Ideally, travels would be as short as possible, however, computing global minimal travel paths is computationally expensive. To combat this problem, researchers at Oak Ridge National Lab developed a GPU-based approach to travel insertion based on a unique factoradic representation. This representation was then utilized by the GPU to solve the Traveling Salesman Problem (TSP). This algorithm was able to compute global minimal travel paths quickly resulting in faster object construction. A general investigation was also carried out to determine when a GPU vs CPU implementation would be beneficial.

Borish, Michael↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Area Localized Coupled Model for Analytical Mean Flow Prediction in Arbitrary Wind Farm Geometries

This work introduces the area localized coupled (ALC) model, which extends the applicability of approaches that couple classical wake superposition models and atmospheric boundary layer models to wind farms with arbitrary layouts. Coupling wake and top–down boundary layer models is particularly challenging since the latter requires averaging over planform areas associated with turbine-specific regions of the flow that need to be specified. The ALC model uses Voronoi tessellation to define this local area around each turbine. A top–down description of a developing internal boundary layer is then applied over Voronoi cells upstream of each turbine to estimate the local mean velocity profile. Coupling between the velocity at hub-height based on this localized top–down model and a wake model is achieved by enforcing a minimum least-square-error in mean velocity in each cell. The wake model in the present implementation takes into account variations in wind farm inflow velocity and represents the wake profile behind each turbine as a super-Gaussian function that smoothly transitions between a top-hat shape in the region immediately following the turbine to a Gaussian profile downstream. Detailed comparisons to large-eddy simulation (LES) data from two different wind farms demonstrate the efficacy of the model in accurately predicting both wind farm power output and local turbine hub-height velocity for different wind farm geometries. These validations using data generated from two different LES codes demonstrate the model's versatility with respect to capturing results from different simulation setups and wind farm configurations.

49 EE - Wind and Water Power Program - Wind (EE-4W↗
DOE OSTI2020

Simulation of Continental Shallow Cumulus Populations Using an Observation-Constrained Cloud-System Resolving Model

Continental shallow cumulus (ShCu) clouds observed on 30 August 2016 during the Holistic Interactions of Shallow Clouds, Aerosols, and Land-Ecosystems (HI-SCALE) field campaign are simulated by using an observation-constrained cloud-system resolving model. On this day, ShCu forms over Oklahoma and southern Kansas and some of these clouds transition to deeper, precipitating convection during the afternoon. We apply a four-dimensional ensemble-variational (4DEnVar) hybrid technique in the Community Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) system to assimilate operational data sets and unique boundary layer measurements including a Raman lidar, radar wind profilers, radiosondes, and surface stations collected by the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) atmospheric observatory into the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to ascertain how improved environmental conditions can influence forecasts of ShCu populations and the transition to deeper convection. Independent observations from aircraft, satellite, as well as ARM's remote sensors are used to evaluate model performance in different aspects. Several model experiments are conducted to identify the impact of data assimilation (DA) on the prediction of clouds evolution. The analyses indicate that ShCu populations are more accurately reproduced after DA in terms of cloud initiation time and cloud base height, which can be attributed to an improved representation of the ambient meteorological conditions and the convective boundary layer. Extending the assimilation to 18 UTC (local noon) also improved the simulation of shallow-to-deep transitions of convective clouds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Behavior and mechanisms of Doppler wind lidar error in varying stability regimes

Abstract. Wind lidars are widespread and important tools in atmospheric observations. An intrinsic part of lidar measurement error is due to atmospheric variability in the remote-sensing scan volume. This study describes and quantifies the distribution of measurement error due to turbulence in varying atmospheric stability. While the lidar error model is general, we demonstrate the approach using large ensembles of virtual WindCube V2 lidar performing a profiling Doppler-beam-swinging scan in quasi-stationary large-eddy simulations (LESs) of convective and stable boundary layers. Error trends vary with the stability regime, time averaging of results, and observation height. A systematic analysis of the observation error explains dominant mechanisms and supports the findings of the empirical results. Treating the error under a random variable framework allows for informed predictions about the effect of different configurations or conditions on lidar performance. Convective conditions are most prone to large errors (up to 1.5 m s−1 in 1 Hz wind speed in strong convection), driven by the large vertical velocity variances in convective conditions and the high elevation angle of the scanning beams (62∘). Range-gate weighting induces a negative bias into the horizontal wind speeds near the surface shear layer (−0.2 m s−1 in the stable test case). Errors in the horizontal wind speed and direction computed from the wind components are sensitive to the background wind speed but have negligible dependence on the relative orientation of the instrument. Especially during low winds and in the presence of large errors in the horizontal velocity estimates, the reported wind speed is subject to a systematic positive bias (up to 0.4 m s−1 in 1 Hz measurements in strong convection). Vector time-averaged measurements can improve the behavior of the error distributions (reducing the 10 min wind speed error standard deviation to <0.3 m s−1 and the bias to <0.1 m s−1 in strong convection) with a predictable effectiveness related to the number of decorrelated samples in the time window. Hybrid schemes weighting the 10 min scalar- and vector-averaged lidar measurements are shown to be effective at reducing the wind speed biases compared to cup measurements in most of the simulated conditions, with time averages longer than 10 min recommended for best use in some unstable conditions. The approach in decomposing the error mechanisms with the help of the LES flow field could be extended to more complex measurement scenarios and scans.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Machine Learning–Adjusted WRF Forecasts to Support Wind Energy Needs in Black Start Operations

Abstract The push for increased capacity of renewable sources of electricity has led to the growth of wind-power generation, with a need for accurate forecasts of winds at hub height. Forecasts for these levels were uncommon until recently, and that, combined with the nocturnal collapse of the well-mixed boundary layer and daytime growth of the boundary layer through the levels important for energy generation, has contributed to errors in numerical modeling of wind generation resources. The present study explores several machine learning algorithms to both forecast and correct standard WRF Model forecasts of winds and temperature at hub height within wind turbine plants over several different time periods that are critical for the anticipation of potential blackouts and aiding in black start operations on the power grid. It was found that mean square error for day-2 wind forecasts from the WRF Model can be improved by over 90% with the use of a multioutput neural network, and that 60-min forecasts of WRF error, which can then be used to adjust forecasts, can be made with an LSTM with great accuracy. Nowcasting of temperature and wind speed over a 10-min period using an LSTM produced very low error and especially skillful forecasts of maximum and minimum values over the turbine plant area.

17 WIND ENERGY↗