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NASA NTRS2018

Risk Tolerance and Safety Culture: Minimizing the Risk of Catastrophe by Bringing the Lessons of Space Home

The Johnson Space Center has pursued integrating risk management practices and techniques throughout a large organization with an extraordinarily diverse mission. Past mission and institutional failures have been used to inform NASA's safety culture and a implement a uniform risk management environment. Basics from the loss prevention industry have influenced NASA's approach to sustaining its unique, yet aging, infrastructure. Lessons learned at NASA can augment and enhance occupational safety, health and risk management capabilities within hazardous industries. By focusing on risk informed decision-making, building a pervasive safety culture, and accommodating human factors, NASA's safety capabilities have been specifically developed to minimize the risk of loss of life and loss of mission.

Loyd, David↗
NASA NTRS2019

Comparing Flood-Producing Catastrophic Hurricanes in GEOS: A Study of Juan 1985 and Harvey 2017

Hurricanes Juan (1985) and Harvey (2017) bear remarkable similarities because of the exceptional amount of accumulated precipitation over coastal regions in the Gulf, consequent to the peculiar and rare situation in which a hurricane stalls for several days on a coastal area, displaying minimal progress. This is particularly dangerous because: a) terrestrial drag affect only part of the circulation so that weakening is not as fast as when there is rapid motion inland; b) a part of the circulation remains over water and as such low-level moisture flux convergence is maintained; c) precipitation lasts for a very long time over the same area; d) moisture recycling from flooded areas further contributes to maintaining flood conditions. From the forecast perspective, hurricanes with track singularities such as stalling points, loops, or multiple landfalls over the same region are exceptionally difficult to predict because they result from small variations of opposing mechanisms and are therefore intrinsically unstable. Intensity fluctuations and track singularities are strongly coupled. The representation of fluxes undergoing differential drag (ocean vs. land) inside the same circulation is critically dependent upon resolution. Recent modeling development efforts within the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) have brought the horizontal resolution of the global cubed-sphere Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) atmospheric model down to 12 km. This has led to innovative findings in the field of tropical cyclone (TC) modeling within a global framework. The GEOS atmospheric model and data assimilation system (DAS), used to produce the MERRA-2 (Modern Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications) reanalysis, has a "Replay" capability that adds a forcing term to the model equations to constrain it to follow a specified trajectory. This capability is used to produce global, downscaled versions of the 50 km MERRA-2 reanalysis at a 12.5 km resolution. The full DAS and replay modes both use the Incremental Analysis Update or IAU for applying an analysis increment to the model's background state four times each day at 00Z, 06Z, 12Z and 18Z. In a full DAS mode, a six-hour free run of the model is made (Predictor Step), writing states that will be used as backgrounds or first-guesses for the analysis centered on 00Z. The Analysis system then produces its best estimate of the 00Z state by blending backgrounds with observations. The difference between this best estimate and the model's original first guess at 00Z is treated as an analysis increment and added uniformly as a forcing term to the model during a second, now forced, run of the 12Z to 03Z window, which produces the assimilated results. Replay mode is very similar, except only the 00Z background is needed from the predictor segment, which is thus half as long, and instead of doing an analysis, a previously analyzed state at 00Z is read in. The increment is then computed and applied to the corrector step in the same way as in the original DAS. When downscaling horizontal spatial filters can be applied to the "analysis" increment used to force the Corrector step, so as to reproduce the full meteorological state or selectively choose or discard certain forcings. In this presentation, full global hindcast simulations of Juan and operational forecasts of Harvey are compared.

Flooding↗
NASA NTRS2018

Risk Tolerance and Safety Culture: Minimizing the Risk of Catastrophe by Bringing the Lessons of Space Home

The Johnson Space Center has pursued integrating safety culture and risk management practices and techniques throughout a large organization with an extraordinarily diverse mission. Past mission and institutional failures have been used to inform NASA's safety culture and a implement a uniform risk management environment. Basics from the loss prevention industry have influenced NASA's approach to sustaining its unique, yet aging, infrastructure. Lessons learned at NASA can augment and enhance occupational safety, health and risk management capabilities within hazardous industries. By focusing on risk informed decision-making, building a pervasive safety culture, and accommodating human factors, NASA's safety capabilities have been specifically developed to minimize the risk of loss of life and loss of mission.

Mishap↗
NASA NTRS2021

Assateague Island National Seashore Ecological Forecasting: Characterizing Nearshore Suspended Sediments and Landcover Change Relative to Sediment Bypassing and Catastrophic Events

Assateague Island is located off the coast of Maryland and Virginia and serves as a home to sensitive species and habitats. However, infrastructure development disrupted the natural sediment transport processes of the barrier island, which accelerated erosion of the island’s shoreline. To counteract this, the United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) initiated semiannual sediment bypassing operations in 2004. Over time, financial constraints limited the amount of sediment deposition possible, leading to concerns over navigational issues in nearby channels and the possibility of the operations not providing their intended benefits. To address these issues, NASA DEVELOP partnered with the National Park Service NPS and USACE. The team performed time series analyses of nearshore suspended sediment from 2004-2020 and landcover change from 2006-2018 with satellite imagery from Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM), Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+), Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), and Sentinel-2 MultiSpectral Instrument (MSI). The sediment transport analyses showed that suspended sediment levels are seasonally dependent. Meanwhile, historical land cover trends included a net increase in unconsolidated shore and a net decrease in open water. Land cover change was then forecast to 2021, 2031, and 2046 using the IDRISI TerrSet Land Change Modeler. The model predicted the most drastic land cover changes in the southern portion and the least on the eastern foreshore of the island. As a result, this project allows our partners to understand the impact of sediment bypassing operations more fully and make better-informed decisions regarding the island’s management.

M Colin Marvin↗
NASA NTRS1962

Titanium-Oxygen Reactivity Study

A program has been conducted at Astronautics to investigate the likelihood of occurrence of the catastrophic oxidation of titanium alloy sheet under conditions which simulate certain cases of accidental failure of the metal while it is in contact with liquid or gaseous oxygen. Three methods of fracturing the metal were used; they consisted of mechanical puncture, tensile fracture of welded joints, and perforation by very high velocity particles. The results of the tests which have been conducted provide further evidence of the reactivity of titanium with liquid and gaseous oxygen. The evidence indicates that the rapid fracturing of titanium sheet while it is in contact with oxygen initiates the catastrophic oxidation reaction. Initiation occurred when the speed of the fracture was some few feet per second, as in both the drop-weight puncture tests and the static tensile fracture tests of welded joints, as well as when the speed was several thousand feet per second, as in the simulated micrometeoroid penetration tests. The slow propagation of a crack, however, did not initiate the reaction. It may logically be concluded that the localized frictional heat of rapid fracture and/or spontaneous oxidation (exothermic) of minute particles emanating from the fracture cause initiation of the reaction. Under conditions of slow fracture, however, the small heat generated may be adequately dissipated and the reaction is not initiated. A portion of the study conducted consisted of investigating various means by which the reaction might be retarded or prevented. Providing a "barrier" at the titanium-oxygen interface consisting of either aluminum metal or a coating of a petroleum base corrosion inhibitor appeared to be only partially effective in retarding the reaction. The accidental puncturing or similar rupturing of thin-walled pressurized oxygen tanks on missiles and space vehicle will usually constitute loss of function, and may sometimes cause their catastrophic destruction by explosive decompression regardless of the type of material used for their construction. In the case of tanks constructed of titanium alloys the added risk is incurred of catastrophic burning of the tanks. In view of this it is recommended that thin-walled tanks constructed of titanium alloys should not be used to contain liquid or gaseous oxygen.

Chafey, J. E.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Mechanism of Na2SO4-induced corrosion of molybdenum containing nickel-base superalloys at high temperatures. I - Corrosion in atmospheres containing O2 only. II - Corrosion in O2 + SO2 atmospheres

Kinetics of the Na2SO4-induced corrosion of the molybdenum-containing nickel-base superalloys, B-1900 and Udimet 700, coated with Na2MoO4, has been studied in oxygen atmosphere at temperatures ranging from 750 to 950 C. Because the gas turbine atmosphere always contains some SO2 and SO3, the effect of atmospheric SO2 content on corrosion of Udimet-700 has also been studied. It was found that in the O2 atmosphere the melt in the catastrophic corrosion phase consists of Na2MoO4 plus MoO3, with the onset of the catastrophic corrosion coinciding with the appearance of MoO3. In the presence of low levels of atmospheric SO2 (below 0.24 percent), the melt during catastrophic corrosion contains, in addition to Na2MoO4 and MoO3, some quantities of Na2SO4. At the levels of SO2 above 1 percent, no catastrophic corrosion was observed. At these SO2 levels, internal sulfidation appears to be the primary mode of degradation.

Misra, A. K.↗
NASA NTRS1993

The resurfacing controversy for Venus: An overview and a mechanistic perspective

Two remarkable aspects of the population of impact craters on Venus are that craters at all sizes are indistinguishable from a random population and that most craters have not been significantly modified by tectonic strain or by volcanic flows external to the crater rim, despite evidence from Magellan images that volcanic and tectonic features are widespread on Venus. One interpretation of these observations is that most of the surface dates from the end of a catastrophic global resurfacing event that ceased about 500 My ago, and that a small fraction of craters volcaniclly embayed or modified by deformation indicate that volcanic and tectonic activity subsequent to that time has been at much lower levels. A competing scenario, in which resurfacing occurs episodically in patches a few hundred kilometers in extent and there is a wider spectrum of surface ages, also appears to be consistent with the characteristics of impact craters on Venus. While geological and statistical studies of the crater population on Venus offer some promise for distinguishing between these two hypotheses, consideration of the possible mechanisms of catastrophic episodic resurfacing provides an independent perspective. Potential mechanisms for catastrophic resurfacing of Venus range from geologically sudden convective destabilization of the global lithosphere to strongly time-dependent heat flux and melt generation in the underlying mantle. For most of these mechanisms, resurfacing occurs implicitly or explicitly by volcanism. An alternative hypothesis is that, at least in the geologically recent history of Venus, the primary resurfacing mechanism has been tectonic deformation rather than volcanism. Because the rate of surface strain should be controlled by the temperature-dependent strength of the lower crust, a geologically rapid transition in surface strain rates should be the natural result of planetary cooling. This transition would occur at comparable times for areas of similar crustal thickness and heat flow, but would be delayed for regions of thicker or hotter crust. The end of the era of high rates of tectonic resurfacing could thus appear as a 'catastrophe' over the 80% of the planet with an elevation within 1 Km of the mean, while continued deformation would give rise to 'episodic' resurfacing to much younger times in the highlands, a result consistent with lower crater densities seen in highland regions.

Solomon, Sean C.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Space Shuttle Main Engine Quantitative Risk Assessment: Illustrating Modeling of a Complex System with a New QRA Software Package

During 1997, a team from Hernandez Engineering, MSFC, Rocketdyne, Thiokol, Pratt & Whitney, and USBI completed the first phase of a two year Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) of the Space Shuttle. The models for the Shuttle systems were entered and analyzed by a new QRA software package. This system, termed the Quantitative Risk Assessment System(QRAS), was designed by NASA and programmed by the University of Maryland. The software is a groundbreaking PC-based risk assessment package that allows the user to model complex systems in a hierarchical fashion. Features of the software include the ability to easily select quantifications of failure modes, draw Event Sequence Diagrams(ESDs) interactively, perform uncertainty and sensitivity analysis, and document the modeling. This paper illustrates both the approach used in modeling and the particular features of the software package. The software is general and can be used in a QRA of any complex engineered system. The author is the project lead for the modeling of the Space Shuttle Main Engines (SSMEs), and this paper focuses on the modeling completed for the SSMEs during 1997. In particular, the groundrules for the study, the databases used, the way in which ESDs were used to model catastrophic failure of the SSMES, the methods used to quantify the failure rates, and how QRAS was used in the modeling effort are discussed. Groundrules were necessary to limit the scope of such a complex study, especially with regard to a liquid rocket engine such as the SSME, which can be shut down after ignition either on the pad or in flight. The SSME was divided into its constituent components and subsystems. These were ranked on the basis of the possibility of being upgraded and risk of catastrophic failure. Once this was done the Shuttle program Hazard Analysis and Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) were used to create a list of potential failure modes to be modeled. The groundrules and other criteria were used to screen out the many failure modes that did not contribute significantly to the catastrophic risk. The Hazard Analysis and FMEA for the SSME were also used to build ESDs that show the chain of events leading from the failure mode occurence to one of the following end states: catastrophic failure, engine shutdown, or siccessful operation( successful with respect to the failure mode under consideration).

Smart, Christian↗
NASA NTRS2013

NDE Evidence for the Damage Arrestment Performance of PRSEUS Composite Cube During High-Pressure Load Test

As an approach to light-weight, cost-effective and manufacturable structures required to enable the hybrid wing body aircraft, The Boeing Company, Inc. and NASA have developed the Pultruded Rod Stitched Efficient Unitized Structure (PRSEUS) concept. A PRSEUS pressure cube was developed as a risk reduction test article to examine a new integral cap joint concept as part of a building block approach for technology development of the PRSEUS concept. The overall specimen strength exceeded the 18.4 psi load requirement as testing resulted in the cube reaching a final pressure load of around 48 psi prior to catastrophic failure. The cube pressure test verified that the joints and structure were capable of sustaining the required loads, and represented the first testing of joined PRSEUS structure. This paper will address the damage arrestment performance of the stitched PRSEUS structure. Following catastrophic failure of the cube, ultrasonic pulse-echo inspection found that the localized damage, surrounding a barely-visible impact damage site, did not change noticeably between just after impact and catastrophic failure of the cube, and did not play a role in the catastrophic failure event. Ultrasonic inspection of the remaining intact cube panels presented three basic types of indications: delaminations between laminae parallel to the face sheets, lying between face sheet and tear strap layers, or between tear strap and flange layers; delaminations above the noodles of stringers, frames or integral caps, lying within face sheet or tear strap layers; and delaminations between the laminae in the inner fillets of the integral caps, where pulloff stresses were expected to be highest. Delaminations of all three types were predominantly contained by the first row of stitches encountered. For the small fraction of delaminations extending beyond the first row of stitches, all were contained by the second stitch row.

Johnston, Patrick H.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Application of Fault Management Theory to the Quantitative Selection of a Launch Vehicle Abort Trigger Suite

The theory of System Health Management (SHM) and of its operational subset Fault Management (FM) states that FM is implemented as a "meta" control loop, known as an FM Control Loop (FMCL). The FMCL detects that all or part of a system is now failed, or in the future will fail (that is, cannot be controlled within acceptable limits to achieve its objectives), and takes a control action (a response) to return the system to a controllable state. In terms of control theory, the effectiveness of each FMCL is estimated based on its ability to correctly estimate the system state, and on the speed of its response to the current or impending failure effects. This paper describes how this theory has been successfully applied on the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Space Launch System (SLS) Program to quantitatively estimate the effectiveness of proposed abort triggers so as to select the most effective suite to protect the astronauts from catastrophic failure of the SLS. The premise behind this process is to be able to quantitatively provide the value versus risk trade‐off for any given abort trigger, allowing decision makers to make more informed decisions. All current and planned crewed launch vehicles have some form of vehicle health management system integrated with an emergency launch abort system to ensure crew safety. While the design can vary, the underlying principle is the same: detect imminent catastrophic vehicle failure, initiate launch abort, and extract the crew to safety. Abort triggers are the detection mechanisms that identify that a catastrophic launch vehicle failure is occurring or is imminent and cause the initiation of a notification to the crew vehicle that the escape system must be activated. While ensuring that the abort triggers provide this function, designers must also ensure that the abort triggers do not signal that a catastrophic failure is imminent when in fact the launch vehicle can successfully achieve orbit. That is, the abort triggers must have low false negative rates to be sure that real crew‐threatening failures are detected, and also low false positive rates to ensure that the crew does not abort from non‐crew‐threatening launch vehicle behaviors. The analysis process described in this paper is a compilation of over six years of lessons learned and refinements from experiences developing abort triggers for NASA's Constellation Program (Ares I Project) and the SLS Program, as well as the simultaneous development of SHM/FM theory. The paper will describe the abort analysis concepts and process, developed in conjunction with SLS Safety and Mission Assurance (S&MA) to define a common set of mission phase, failure scenario, and Loss of Mission Environment (LOME) combinations upon which the SLS Loss of Mission (LOM) Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) models are built. This abort analysis also requires strong coordination with the Multi‐Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV) and SLS Structures and Environments (STE) to formulate a series of abortability tables that encapsulate explosion dynamics over the ascent mission phase. The design and assessment of abort conditions and triggers to estimate their Loss of Crew (LOC) Benefits also requires in‐depth integration with other groups, including Avionics, Guidance, Navigation and Control(GN&C), the Crew Office, Mission Operations, and Ground Systems. The outputs of this analysis are a critical input to SLS S&MA's LOC PRA models. The process described here may well be the first full quantitative application of SHM/FM theory to the selection of a sensor suite for any aerospace system.

Lo, Yunnhon↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Extravehicular Activity on the Lunar Surface: Mapping Mitigation Risk Consequence for Crew Needing Assistance or Rescue

Extravehicular activity (EVA) on the lunar surface presents unique risks to crew with possibility for injury. Without appropriate assistance or rescue capability, inability to nominally ambulate and return to a lander, especially during early Artemis missions, could have catastrophic consequences. Mapping likelihood and consequence safety risk associated with identified injury scenarios establishes a baseline from which to assess potential mitigation solutions to ensure crew health and safety. Causes leading to the need for incapacitated crew rescue (ICR) during EVA on the lunar surface were previously identified and classified using an ICR/Acute Injury scenario spectrum. Severe scenarios are those when the affected astronaut requires either partial or full continuous assistance from the rescuer. Evaluation of these continual reliance conditions included calculating event probabilities (likelihoods) associated with an early Artemis mission and mapping them to established Exploration System Directorate (ESD) probability thresholds; safety consequences were analyzed and correlated to defined ESD personnel safety categories. These resulting likelihood and consequence values served as a baseline for assessing risk reduction of three mitigation capabilities: crew assistance (rescuer crew) only, walking assist devices, and a wheeled transport device. Of the twenty-five continual reliance conditions, ten were evaluated as “catastrophic” (Level 5, loss of life) during EVA on the lunar surface with probabilities ranging from moderate to very low during an early Artemis mission. Crew assistance only and walking assist devices showed similar potential for risk reduction, with four of the ten causes decreasing to Level 4. A wheeled transport device further increased risk reduction with six of the ten conditions decreasing to Level 4. Given the catastrophic consequence of several identified conditions, assessments should be performed to determine the feasibility of mitigation capabilities. It is currently unknown whether a rescuer astronaut could effectively provide continuous assistance to enable both crew to return safely to the lander from the standpoint of both suit geometry and human performance. Although resulting in an increase in resources, providing a wheeled transport provides the highest risk reduction potential, and walking assist devices may have prevention as well as mitigation benefits.

lunar surface↗