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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Supporting Arctic Research, Engagement, and Policy With GMAO’s Next Generation Reanalysis & Prediction Systems

Modeling efforts at NASA aim to advance scientific understanding of the Earth system and its response to natural and human-induced changes and to improve our ability to predict climate, weather, and natural hazards. These efforts are particularly relevant for communities, scientists and stakeholders working and living in the Arctic. Here, we highlight current and planned Earth system prediction and data assimilation products from the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO). We invite feedback and discussion on GMAO’s model and reanalysis development in support of Arctic research, engagement, and policy.

Lauren C Andrews↗

NASA NTRS2018

Considerations in Assuring Safety of Increasingly Autonomous Systems

Recent technological advances have accelerated the development and application of increasingly autonomous (IA) systems in civil and military aviation. IA systems can provide automation of complex mission tasks-ranging across reduced crew operations, air-traffic management, and unmanned, autonomous aircraft-with most applications calling for collaboration and teaming among humans and IA agents. IA systems are expected to provide benefits in terms of safety, reliability, efficiency, affordability, and previously unattainable mission capability. There is also a potential for improving safety by removal of human errors. There are, however, several challenges in the safety assurance of these systems due to the highly adaptive and non-deterministic behavior of these systems, and vulnerabilities due to potential divergence of airplane state awareness between the IA system and humans. These systems must deal with external sensors and actuators, and they must respond in time commensurate with the activities of the system in its environment. One of the main challenges is that safety assurance, currently relying upon authority transfer from an autonomous function to a human to mitigate safety concerns, will need to address their mitigation by automation in a collaborative dynamic context. These challenges have a fundamental, multidimensional impact on the safety assurance methods, system architecture, and V&V capabilities to be employed. The goal of this report is to identify relevant issues to be addressed in these areas, the potential gaps in the current safety assurance techniques, and critical questions that would need to be answered to assure safety of IA systems. We focus on a scenario of reduced crew operation when an IA system is employed which reduces, changes or eliminates a human's role in transition from two-pilot operations.

Alves, Erin E.↗

NASA NTRS2016

NASA's Earth Science Flight Program Meets the Challenges of Today and Tomorrow

NASA's Earth science flight program is a dynamic undertaking that consists of a large fleet of operating satellites, an array of satellite and instrument projects in various stages of development, a robust airborne science program, and a massive data archiving and distribution system. Each element of the flight program is complex and present unique challenges. NASA builds upon its successes and learns from its setbacks to manage this evolving portfolio to meet NASA's Earth science objectives. NASA fleet of 16 operating missions provide a wide range of scientific measurements made from dedicated Earth science satellites and from instruments mounted to the International Space Station. For operational missions, the program must address issues such as an aging satellites operating well beyond their prime mission, constellation flying, and collision avoidance with other spacecraft and orbital debris. Projects in development are divided into two broad categories: systematic missions and pathfinders. The Earth Systematic Missions (ESM) include a broad range of multi-disciplinary Earth-observing research satellite missions aimed at understanding the Earth system and its response to natural and human-induced forces and changes. Understanding these forces will help determine how to predict future changes, and how to mitigate or adapt to these changes. The Earth System Science Pathfinder (ESSP) program provides frequent, regular, competitively selected Earth science research opportunities that accommodate new and emerging scientific priorities and measurement capabilities. This results in a series of relatively low-cost, small-sized investigations and missions. Principal investigators whose scientific objectives support a variety of studies lead these missions, including studies of the atmosphere, oceans, land surface, polar ice regions, or solid Earth. This portfolio of missions and investigations provides opportunity for investment in innovative Earth science that enhances NASA's capability for better understanding the current state of the Earth system. ESM and ESSP projects often involve partnerships with other US agencies and/or international organizations. This adds to the complexity of mission development, but allows for a greater scientific return on NASA's investments. The Earth Science Airborne Science Program provides manned and unmanned aircraft systems that further science and advance the use of satellite data. NASA uses these assets worldwide in campaigns to investigate extreme weather events, observe Earth system processes, obtain data for Earth science modeling activities, and calibrate instruments flying aboard Earth science spacecraft. The Airborne Science Program has six dedicated aircraft and access to many other platforms. The Earth Science Multi-Mission Operations program acquires, preserves, and distributes observational data from operating spacecraft to support Earth Science research focus areas. The Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS), which has been in operations since 1994, primarily accomplishes this. EOSDIS acquires, processes, archives, and distributes Earth Science data and information products. The archiving of NASA Earth Science information happens at eight Distributed Active Archive Centers (DAACs) and four disciplinary data centers located across the United States. The DAACs specialize by topic area, and make their data available to researchers around the world. The DAACs currently house over 9 petabytes of data, growing at a rate of 6.4 terabytes per day. NASA's current Earth Science portfolio is responsive to the National Research Council (NRC) 2007 Earth Science Decadal Survey and well as the 2010 NASA Response to President Obama's Climate Plan. As the program evolves into the future it will leverage the lessons learned from the current missions in operations and development, and plan for adjustments to future objectives in response to the anticipated 2017 NRC Decadal Survey.

Flight Program↗

DOE OSTI2024

Seeing the forest for the trees: implementing dynamic representation of forest management and forest carbon in a long-term global multisector model

Abstract Studies have found that understanding forest management is critical in understanding the interaction between the carbon cycle and the integrated human-Earth system. This makes effectively representing forest management decisions such as planting and harvesting important. Here, we implement a novel dynamic forest harvest model in a global state of the art multi-sector dynamics model, namely the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM). We implement an approach that explicitly tracks forest age and generates rotation ages for forest harvest that are responsive to changes in wood prices, changes in forest age and regional preferences for forest rotation. Furthermore, the forest sector in GCAM competes for investment with other land use types in the future years based on expected profit. Our baseline scenario results indicate that with the new forest harvest model, the current global wood product demand in GCAM can be met with minimal loss of old growth forest through the age-based harvest decisions. We find that economic pressure for deforestation and consequent loss of forest carbon is a bigger driver of global forest change than wood harvests, especially in developing regions. Under alternative scenarios where an economic value is placed on carbon across the terrestrial and energy systems, while there is an increase in forest plantations, there can be corresponding decreases in forest cover in some regions as forest land competes with land for bio-energy crops. When the carbon in forests is assigned a price, we find that the average rotation age for wood harvests can be reduced across regions to harvest forests in a more carbon efficient manner.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2014

Using Satellite Remote Sensing and Household Survey Data to Assess Human Health and Nutrition Response to Environmental Change

Climate change and degradation of ecosystem services functioning may threaten the ability of current agricultural systems to keep up with demand for adequate and inexpensive food and for clean water, waste disposal and other broader ecosystem services. Human health is likely to be affected by changes occurring across multiple geographic and time scales. Impacts range from increasing transmissibility and the range of vector-borne diseases, such as malaria and yellow fever, to undermining nutrition through deleterious impacts on food production and concomitant increases in food prices. This paper uses case studies to describe methods that make use of satellite remote sensing and Demographic and Health Survey data to better understand individual-level human health and nutrition outcomes. By bringing these diverse datasets together, the connection between environmental change and human health outcomes can be described through new research and analysis.

Health↗

NASA NTRS2014

Multisectoral Climate Impact Hotspots in a Warming World

The impacts of global climate change on different aspects of humanity's diverse life-support systems are complex and often difficult to predict. To facilitate policy decisions on mitigation and adaptation strategies, it is necessary to understand, quantify, and synthesize these climate-change impacts, taking into account their uncertainties. Crucial to these decisions is an understanding of how impacts in different sectors overlap, as overlapping impacts increase exposure, lead to interactions of impacts, and are likely to raise adaptation pressure. As a first step we develop herein a framework to study coinciding impacts and identify regional exposure hotspots. This framework can then be used as a starting point for regional case studies on vulnerability and multifaceted adaptation strategies. We consider impacts related to water, agriculture, ecosystems, and malaria at different levels of global warming. Multisectoral overlap starts to be seen robustly at a mean global warming of 3 degC above the 1980-2010 mean, with 11% of the world population subject to severe impacts in at least two of the four impact sectors at 4 degC. Despite these general conclusions, we find that uncertainty arising from the impact models is considerable, and larger than that from the climate models. In a low probability-high impact worst-case assessment, almost the whole inhabited world is at risk for multisectoral pressures. Hence, there is a pressing need for an increased research effort to develop a more comprehensive understanding of impacts, as well as for the development of policy measures under existing uncertainty.

policies↗

NASA NTRS1982

Human homeostasis in the space environment: A systems synthesis approach

The features of homeostatic changes which occur during adaptation to the weightless state are examined and the possible mechanisms underlying the responses are explored. Cardiac output, negative fluid balance, body weight, bone calcium, and muscle atrophy are discussed. Some testable hypotheses concerning possible effects on homeostasis that long-term exposure to weightlessness might cause are proposed.

Economos, A. C.↗

DOE OSTI2025

A framework for testing soil carbon dynamics post land-use transition in a multisector dynamics model

Soil carbon plays a crucial role in the global carbon cycle. Changes in land use can determine whether carbon is stored or is emitted into the atmosphere as carbon dioxide, which has broad implications for the human and Earth systems. These feedbacks to the carbon cycle and their socio-economic drivers are modelled by many global multisector dynamics models to project future possibilities for the human-Earth system. One notable model of this class is the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), which uses a simplified process to model soil organic carbon (SOC) content after land-use transition across 384 land units. While the current GCAM soil carbon framework is based on scientific principles, it has not been tested against experimental data. This work examines rates of SOC change from GCAM input data. Specifically, first order rate constants derived from model inputs were compared to values from two syntheses to assess GCAM’s accuracy. Welch’s t-tests and linear models were used to determine if rate constants were consistent across all tested geographical areas and land-use transition types. While we found that there was general agreement on the direction and magnitude (i.e., rate) of SOC change, the rate constant derived from GCAM and empirical values differed strongly in a subset of specific instances. These results indicate that GCAM’s current SOC dynamics during land use transition successfully capture broad patterns of change in this critical carbon pool, but should be interpreted with caution at finer spatial scales. One potential cause of these discrepancies is our highly aggregated variable, soil timescale, which could be made more granular to improve accuracy. When using economically rooted multisector dynamics models, such as GCAM, it is critical to understand such model limitations for representing specific Earth system processes.

carbon↗

NASA NTRS2015

Development Challenges of Game-Changing Entry System Technologies from Concept to Mission Infusion

Realization within the US and NASA that future exploration both Human and Robotic will require innovative new technologies led to the creation of the Space Technology Mission Directorate and investment in game changing technologies with high pay-off. Some of these investments will see success and others, due to many of the constraints, will not attain their goal. The co-authors of this proposed presentation have been involved from concept to mission infusion aspects of entry technologies that are game changing. The four example technologies used to describe the challenges experienced along the pathways to success are at different levels of maturity. They are Conformal, 3-D MAT, HEEET and ADEPT. The four examples in many ways capture broad aspects of the challenges of maturation and illustrate what led some to be exceptionally successful and how others had to be altered in order remain viable game changing technologies. Subsystem technologies for robotic and human missions

TPS↗

NASA NTRS2016

Development Challenges of Game-Changing Entry System Technologies From Concept to Mission Infusion

Technology↗

NASA NTRS1992

Lunar Prospector: a Preliminary Surface Remote Sensing Resource Assessment for the Moon

The potential existence of lunar volatiles is a scientific discovery that could distinctly change the direction of pathways of inner solar system human expansion. With a dedicated germanium gamma ray spectrometer launched in the early 1990's, surface water concentrations of 0.7 percent could be detected immediately upon full lunar polar orbit operations. The expense of lunar base construction and operation would be dramatically reduced over a scenario with no lunar volatile resources. Global surface mineral distribution could be mapped out and integrated into a GIS database for lunar base site selection. Extensive surface lunar mapping would also result in the utilization of archived Apollo images. A variety of remote sensing systems and their parameters have been proposed for use in the detection of these lunar ice masses. The detection or nondetection of subsurface and surface ice masses in lunar polar crater floors could dramatically direct the development pathways that the human race might follow in its radiation from the Earth to habitable locales in the inner terran solar system. Potential sources of lunar volatiles are described. The use of remote sensing to detect lunar volatiles is addressed.

Mardon, A. A.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Plasma Cytokine Levels in Astronauts Before and after Spaceflight

Space flight is a unique experience and results in adverse effects on human physiology. Changes have been reported in various physiological systems, including musculoskeletal, neurovestibular, cardiovascular, endocrine, immunity and increased latent viral reactivation as well as others. The potential mechanisms behind these changes are not fully understood. Various cytokines such as IL-1, IL-6, TNF and chemokines have been linked to several of these changes, like muscle loss, bone loss, fatigue, sleep deprivation and viral reactivation. Eighteen astronauts (15 M and 3 F) from 8 spaceflights and 10 healthy age-matched adults (6 M, 4 F) were included in the present study. A panel of 21 plasma cytokines was analyzed with the Luminex 100 to measure the cytokines in these subjects 10 days before the flight (L-10), 2-3 hour after landing (R+0), 3 days after landing (R+3), and at their annual medical exam (AME). IL-10, IL-1, IFN-alpha, MCP-1 and IP-10 increased significantly at L-10 as compared with AME levels. IL-6 and IFN-alpha showed significant increases at R + 0 (P less than .05) over their baseline levels (AME). Cytokine levels at R+3 were not significantly different from R+0. IL-10 and IL-6 have been reported to increase in during viral reactivation. These data show that there was a shift from TH1 to TH2 cytokines L-10 and R+0. We also studied viral reactivation in 10 of the 18 subjects included in the present study before, during, and after space flight. Increased salivary varicella zoster virus (VZV) shedding in these subjects was found either during or after the mission. VZV shedding correlated with the increased levels of cytokines especially IL-10 and IL-6. Overall, our data suggests that cytokines may play an important role in regulating adverse changes in astronauts, and further studies are needed to fully understand the mechanism.

Mehta, Satish K.↗

NASA NTRS2013

An Assessment of Environmental Health Needs

Environmental health fundamentally addresses the physical, chemical, and biological risks external to the human body that can impact the health of a person by assessing and controlling these risks in order to generate and maintain a health-supportive environment. In manned spacecraft, environmental health risks are mitigated by a multi-disciplinary effort, employing several measures including active and passive controls, by establishing environmental standards (SMACs, SWEGs, microbial and acoustics limits), and through environmental monitoring. Human Health and Performance (HHP) scientists and Environmental Control and Life Support (ECLS) engineers consider environmental monitoring a vital component to an environmental health management strategy for maintaining a healthy crew and achieving mission success. ECLS engineers use environmental monitoring data to monitor and confirm the health of ECLS systems, whereas HHP scientists use the data to manage the health of the human system. Because risks can vary between missions and change over time, environmental monitoring is critical. Crew health risks associated with the environment were reviewed by agency experts with the goal of determining risk-based environmental monitoring needs for future NASA manned missions. Once determined, gaps in environmental health knowledge and technology, required to address those risks, were identified for various types of exploration missions. This agency-wide assessment of environmental health needs will help guide the activities/hardware development efforts to close those gaps and advance the knowledge required to meet NASA manned space exploration objectives. Details of the roadmap development and findings are presented in this paper.

Macatangay, Ariel V.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Advancement of Miniature Optic Gas Sensor (MOGS) Probe Technology

Advancement of Miniature Optic Gas Sensor (MOGS) Probe Technology" project will investigate newly developed optic gas sensors delivered from a Small Business Innovative Research (SBIR) Phase II effort. A ventilation test rig will be designed and fabricated to test the sensors while integrated with a Suited Manikin Test Apparatus (SMTA). Once the sensors are integrated, a series of test points will be completed to verify that the sensors can withstand Advanced Suit Portable Life Support System (PLSS) environments and associated human metabolic profiles for changes in pressure and levels of Oxygen (ppO2), carbon dioxide (ppCO2), and humidity (ppH2O).

Chullen, Cinda↗

NASA NTRS2018

Biogeochemical Effects of Rising Atmospheric CO2 on Terrestrial and Ocean Systems

Rising carbon dioxide (CO2) has decreased seawater pH at long-term observing stations around the world, including in the open ocean north of Oahu, Hawaii, near Alaska's Aleutian Islands, the Gulf of Maine shore, and on Gray's Reef in the southeastern United States. This ocean acidification process has already affected some marine species and altered fundamental ecosystem processes, and further effects are likely. While atmospheric CO rises at approximately the same rate all over the globe, its non-climate effects on land vary depending on climate and dominant species. In terrestrial ecosystems, rising atmospheric CO concentrations are expected to increase plant photosynthesis, growth, and water-use efficiency, though these effects are reduced when nutrients, drought or other factors limit plant growth. Rising CO would likely change carbon storage and influence terrestrial hydrology and biogeochemical cycling, but concomitant effects on vegetation composition and nutrient feedbacks are challenging to predict, making decadal forecasts uncertain. Consequences of rising atmospheric CO are expected to include difficult-to-predict changes in the ecosystem services that terrestrial and ocean systems provide to humans. For instance, ocean acidification resulting from rising CO has decreased the supply of larvae that sustains commercial shellfish production in the northwestern United States. In addition, CO fertilization (increases) plus warming (decreases) are changing terrestrial crop yields. Continued persistence of uptake of carbon by the land and ocean is uncertain. Climate and environmental change create complex feedbacks to the carbon cycle and it is not clear how feedbacks modulate future effects of rising CO on carbon sinks. These are several mechanisms that could reduce future sink capacity.

Biogeochemical↗

NASA NTRS2007

Mission Risk Reduction Regulatory Change Management

NASA Headquarters Environmental Management Division supports NASA's mission to pioneer the future in space exploration, scientific discovery, and aeronautics research by integrating environmental considerations into programs and projects early-on, thereby proactively reducing NASA's exposure to institutional, programmatic and operational risk. As part of this effort, NASA established the Principal Center for Regulatory Risk Analysis and Communication (RRAC PC) as a resource for detecting, analyzing, and communicating environmental regulatory risks to the NASA stakeholder community. The RRAC PC focuses on detecting emerging environmental regulations and other operational change drivers that may pose risks to NASA programs and facilities, and effectively communicating the potential risks. For example, regulatory change may restrict how and where certain activities or operations may be conducted. Regulatory change can also directly affect the ability to use certain materials by mandating a production phase-out or restricting usage applications of certain materials. Regulatory change can result in significant adverse impacts to NASA programs and facilities due to NASA's stringent performance requirements for materials and components related to human-rated space vehicles. Even if a regulation does not directly affect NASA operations, U.S. and international regulations can pose program risks indirectly through requirements levied on manufacturers and vendors of components and materials. For example, manufacturers can change their formulations to comply with new regulatory requirements. Such changes can require time-consuming and costly requalification certification for use in human spaceflight programs. The RRAC PC has implemented a system for proactively managing regulatory change to minimize potential adverse impacts to NASA programs and facilities. This presentation highlights the process utilized by the RRACPC to communicate regulatory change and the associated potential risks within NASA, as well as the process for communicating and cooperating with other government agencies and industry partners, both domestic and international, to ensure mission success.

Scroggins, Sharon↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Leveraging Human Performance Data to Change the Narrative that People are the Safety Problem

The study of errors and failure has a long and productive history in the behavioral sciences. By studying how systems fail, we rule out various mechanisms for how those systems might work, thereby refining our theories of how they actually work. Human performance, however, includes more than errors; human performance comprises both failures and successes. A systematic bias to collect and analyze data only on error affects the decisions we make as a community by promoting the narrative that “people are the safety problem.” This narrative manifests in both obvious and subtle ways in the design of systems intended for human use. When the only safety data that are available are about human failure, then “data-driven” designs can only consider that humans fail. Changing this narrative will depend on new data and new ways to examine data – specifically, data on the processes by which human create and contribute to safety. An alternate narrative is that people represent a primary source of safety, through their capability to anticipate, monitor for, respond to, and learn from expected and unexpected change. This presentation will describe research efforts to expand the range of safety-relevant events to include not just rare safety failures but frequent safety successes. These efforts include use of data from both operations and simulations to develop methods and metrics for learning from structured observation, self-report, and system data.

Jon Holbrook↗

NASA NTRS2014

Visual Image Sensor Organ Replacement

This innovation is a system that augments human vision through a technique called "Sensing Super-position" using a Visual Instrument Sensory Organ Replacement (VISOR) device. The VISOR device translates visual and other sensors (i.e., thermal) into sounds to enable very difficult sensing tasks. Three-dimensional spatial brightness and multi-spectral maps of a sensed image are processed using real-time image processing techniques (e.g. histogram normalization) and transformed into a two-dimensional map of an audio signal as a function of frequency and time. Because the human hearing system is capable of learning to process and interpret extremely complicated and rapidly changing auditory patterns, the translation of images into sounds reduces the risk of accidentally filtering out important clues. The VISOR device was developed to augment the current state-of-the-art head-mounted (helmet) display systems. It provides the ability to sense beyond the human visible light range, to increase human sensing resolution, to use wider angle visual perception, and to improve the ability to sense distances. It also allows compensation for movement by the human or changes in the scene being viewed.

Maluf, David A.↗