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At least 127 records · Page 7

Response of Tropical Clouds to the Interannual Variation of Sea Surface Temperature

Connections between the large-scale interannual variations of clouds, deep convection, atmospheric winds. vertical thermodynamic structure, and SSTs over global tropical oceans are examined over the period July 1983 - December 1990. The SST warming associated with El Nino had a significant impact on the global tropical cloud field, although the warming itself was confined to the equatorial central and eastern Pacific. Extensive variations of the total cloud field occurred in the northeastern Indian, western and central Pacific, and western Atlantic Oceans. The changes of high and middle clouds dominated the total cloud variation in these regions. Total cloud variation was relatively weak in the eastern Pacific and the Atlantic because of the cancellation between the changes of high and low clouds. The variation of low clouds dominated the total cloud change in those areas. The destabilization of the lapse rate between 900 and 750 mb was more important for enhancing convective instability than was the change of local SSTs in the equatorial central Pacific during the 1997 El Nino. This destabilization is associated with anomalous rising motion in that region. As a result. convection and high and middle clouds increased in the equatorial central Pacific, In the subtropical Pacific, both the change of lapse rate between 900 and 750 mb associated A,ith anomalous subsidence and the decrease of boundary-layer buoyancy due to a decrease of temperature and moisture played an important role in enhancing convective stability. Consequently, convection, as well its high and middle clouds, decreased in these areas. The change ot'low clouds in the equatorial and southeastern Atlantic was correlated to both local SSTs and the SST changes in the equatorial eastern Pacific. In this area. the increase of low clouds was consistent with the sharper inversion during the 1987 El Nino, The strengthening of the inversion was not caused by a local SST change. although the local SST change appeared to he correlated to the change of low clouds. The coherence between clouds and SST tendency shows that SST tendency leads cloud variation in the equatorial Pacific. Thus, the change of clouds does not dominate the sign of SST tendency even though the cloud change was maximum during the 1987 El Nino. In some ideas of the Indian, subtropical Pacific, and North Atlantic Oceans, cloud change leads SST tendency. Cloud change might affect SST tendency in these regions.

Fu, Rong↗

Massive formation of early diagenetic dolomite in the Ediacaran ocean: Constraints on the “dolomite problem”

Paleozoic and Precambrian sedimentary successions frequently contain massive dolomicrite [CaMg(CO 3 ) 2 ] units despite kinetic inhibitions to nucleation and precipitation of dolomite at Earth surface temperatures (<60 °C). This paradoxical observation is known as the “dolomite problem.” Accordingly, the genesis of these dolostones is usually attributed to burial–hydrothermal dolomitization of primary limestones (CaCO 3 ) at temperatures of >100 °C, thus raising doubt about the validity of these deposits as archives of Earth surface environments. We present a high-resolution, >63-My-long clumped-isotope temperature (T Δ47 ) record of shallow-marine dolomicrites from two drillcores of the Ediacaran (635 to 541 Ma) Doushantuo Formation in South China. Our T ∆47 record indicates that a majority (87%) of these dolostones formed at temperatures of <100 °C. When considering the regional thermal history, modeling of the influence of solid-state reordering on our T Δ47 record further suggests that most of the studied dolostones formed at temperatures of <60 °C, providing direct evidence of a low-temperature origin of these dolostones. Furthermore, calculated δ 18 O values of diagenetic fluids, rare earth element plus yttrium compositions, and petrographic observations of these dolostones are consistent with an early diagenetic origin in a rock-buffered environment. We thus propose that a precursor precipitate from seawater was subsequently dolomitized during early diagenesis in a near-surface setting to produce the large volume of dolostones in the Doushantuo Formation. Our findings suggest that the preponderance of dolomite in Paleozoic and Precambrian deposits likely reflects oceanic conditions specific to those eras and that dolostones can be faithful recorders of environmental conditions in the early oceans.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Acidification in the Southern Ocean – current state and future challenges

The Southern Ocean is especially sensitive to ocean acidification, a process where carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is absorbed by the ocean, thereby changing its acidity levels. Observations show that open ocean waters across the Southern Ocean experienced faster rates of acidification over the past four decades than non-polar waters. Model simulations project more severe ocean acidification in Antarctic coastal waters than in the open ocean. Ocean acidification negatively impacts many Southern Ocean species, but our understanding of whole-ecosystem impacts is incomplete. Furthermore, it is important that we both maintain and expand observational capabilities and mechanistic experiments in this rapidly changing and vulnerable region of the ocean to understand the impacts of ocean acidification on Southern Ocean ecosystems.

Nissen, Cara [University of Amsterdam (The Netherl↗

The Future Intensification of the North Atlantic Winter Storm Track: The Key Role of Dynamic Ocean Coupling

Climate models project an intensification of the wintertime North Atlantic storm track, over its downstream region, by the end of this century. Previous studies have suggested that ocean-atmosphere coupling plays a key role in this intensification, but the precise role of the different components of the coupling has not been explored and quantified. In this paper, using a hierarchy of ocean coupling experiments, we isolate and quantify the respective roles of thermodynamic (changes in surface heat fluxes) and dynamic (changes in ocean heat flux convergence) ocean coupling in the projected intensification of North Atlantic transient eddy kinetic energy (TEKE). We show that dynamic coupling accounts for nearly all of the future TEKE strengthening as it overcomes the much smaller effect of surface heat flux changes to weaken the TEKE. We further show that by reducing the Arctic amplification in the North Atlantic, ocean heat flux convergence increases the meridional temperature gradient aloft, causing a larger eddy growth rate, and resulting in the strengthening of North Atlantic TEKE. Our results stress the importance of better monitoring and investigating the changes in ocean heat transport, for improving climate change adaptation strategies.

North Atlantic winter storms↗

Impact of Satellite Sea Surface Salinity Observations on ENSO Predictions from the GMAO S2S Forecast System

El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has far reaching global climatic impacts and so extending useful ENSO forecasts would be of great benefit for society. However, one key variable that has yet to be fully exploited within coupled forecast systems is accurate estimation of near-surface ocean density. Satellite Sea Surface Salinity (SSS), combined with temperature, help to identify ocean density changes and associated mixing near the ocean surface. We assess the impact of satellite SSS observations for improving near-surface dynamics within ocean analyses and how these impact dynamical ENSO forecasts using the NASA GMAO (Global Modeling and Assimilation Office) Sub-seasonal to Seasonal (S2S_v2.1) coupled forecast system (Molod et al. 2018 - i.e. NASA's contribution to the NMME (National Multi-Model Ensemble) project). For all initialization experiments, all available along-track absolute dynamic topography and in situ observations are assimilated using the LETKF ( Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter) scheme similar to Penny et al., 2013. A separate reanalysis additionally assimilates Aquarius V5 (September 2011 to June 2015) and SMAP (Soil Moisture Active Passive) V4 (March 2015 to present) along-track data.We highlight the impact of satellite SSS on ocean reanalyses by comparing validation statistics of experiments that assimilate SSS versus our current prediction system that withholds SSS. We find that near-surface validation versus observed statistics for salinity are slightly degraded when assimilating SSS. This is an expected result due to known biases between SSS (measured by the satellite at approximately 1 centimeter) and in situ measurements (typically measured by Argo floats at 3 meters). On the other hand, a very encouraging result is that both temperature, absolute dynamic topography, and mixed layer statistics are improved with SSS assimilation. Previous work has shown that correcting near-surface density structure via gridded SSS assimilation can improve coupled forecasts. Here we present results of coupled forecasts that are initialized from the GMAO S2S reanalyses that assimilates/withholds along-track (L2) SSS. In particular, we contrast forecasts of the overestimated 2014 El Nino, the big 2015 El Nino, and the minor 2016 La Nina. For each of these ENSO scenarios, assimilation of satellite SSS improves the forecast validation. Improved SSS and density upgrades the mixed layer depth leading to more accurate coupled air/sea interaction.

Hackert, E.↗

Impact of Satellite Sea Surface Salinity Observations on ENSO Predictions from the GMAO Seasonal Forecast System

El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has far reaching global climatic impacts and so extending useful ENSO forecasts would be of great benefit for society. However, one key variable that has yet to be fully exploited within coupled forecast systems is accurate estimation of near-surface ocean density. Satellite sea surface salinity (SSS), combined with temperature, help to identify ocean density changes and associated mixing near the ocean surface. We assess the impact of satellite SSS observations for improving near-surface dynamics within ocean analyses and how these impact dynamical ENSO forecasts using the NASA GMAO (Global Modeling and Assimilation Office) Sub-seasonal to Seasonal (S2S_v2.1) coupled forecast system (Molod et al. 2018 - i.e. NASA's contribution to the NMME (North American Multi-Model Ensemble) project). For all initialization experiments, all available along-track absolute dynamic topography and in situ observations are assimilated using the LETKF (Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter) scheme similar to Penny et al., 2013. A separate reanalysis additionally assimilates Aquarius V5 (September 2011 to June 2015) and SMAP (Soil Moisture Active Passive satellite) V4.1 (March 2015 to present) along-track data.We highlight the impact of satellite SSS on ocean reanalyses by comparing validation statistics of experiments that assimilate SSS versus our current prediction system that withholds SSS. We find that near-surface validation versus observed statistics for salinity are slightly degraded when assimilating SSS. This is an expected result due to known biases between SSS (measured by satellite at approximately 1-centimeter depth) and in situ measurements (typically measured by Argo floats at 3-meters depth). On the other hand, a very encouraging result is that both temperature, absolute dynamic topography, and mixed layer statistics are improved with SSS assimilation. Previous work has shown that correcting near-surface density structure via gridded SSS assimilation can improve coupled forecasts. Here we present results of coupled forecasts that are initialized from GMAO S2S spring reanalyses that assimilate/withhold along-track (L2) SSS. In particular, we contrast forecasts of the big 2015 El Nino, the 2017 La Nina and the 2018 weak El Nino. For each of these ENSO scenarios, assimilation of satellite SSS improves the forecast validation. Improved SSS and density upgrade the mixed layer depth leading to more accurate coupled air/sea interaction. From March to June 2015, the availability of two overlapping satellite SSS instruments, Aquarius and SMAP, allows a unique opportunity to compare and contrast forecasts initialized with the benefit of these two satellite SSS observation types. We assess the impact of gridded satellite sea surface salinity observations on dynamical ENSO forecasts for the big 2015 El Nino.

Hackert, E.↗

Freshwater Input and Vertical Mixing in the Canada Basin’s Seasonal Halocline: 1975 versus 2006–12

Abstract The Arctic seasonal halocline impacts the exchange of heat, energy, and nutrients between the surface and the deeper ocean, and it is changing in response to Arctic sea ice melt over the past several decades. Here, we assess seasonal halocline formation in 1975 and 2006–12 by comparing daily, May–September, salinity profiles collected in the Canada Basin under sea ice. We evaluate differences between the two time periods using a one-dimensional (1D) bulk model to quantify differences in freshwater input and vertical mixing. The 1D metrics indicate that two separate factors contribute similarly to stronger stratification in 2006–12 relative to 1975: 1) larger surface freshwater input and 2) less vertical mixing of that freshwater. The larger freshwater input is mainly important in August–September, consistent with a longer melt season in recent years. The reduced vertical mixing is mainly important from June until mid-August, when similar levels of freshwater input in 1975 and 2006–12 are mixed over a different depth range, resulting in different stratification. These results imply that decadal changes to ice–ocean dynamics, in addition to freshwater input, significantly contribute to the stronger seasonal stratification in 2006–12 relative to 1975. These findings highlight the need for near-surface process studies to elucidate the impact of lateral processes and ice–ocean momentum exchange on vertical mixing. Moreover, the results may provide insight for improving the representation of decadal changes to Arctic upper-ocean stratification in climate models that do not capture decadal changes to vertical mixing.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

E-Theatre

Mesoscale/severe storms and results from Terra Fritz Hasler (NASA/Goddard) will show the latest spectacular animations of the hurricanes and tropical storms: Floyd, Georges, Mitch, Bonnie etc. from Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) and Tropical Rain Measuring Mission (TRMM) supported by MMS 3D nested numerical model results. See dust storms in Africa and smoke plumes from fires in Mexico. See how High-Definition Television (HDTV) is revolutionizing entertainment and the way we communicate scientific results. Fly in from space and take a tour of Africa. Drop in on Albuquerque using 1-m Ikonos 'Spy Satellite' technology. See data from the new Earth Observing System (EOS) Terra satellite as well as Landsat 7, and SeaWiFS. See climate change in action with Global Land and Ocean productivity changes over the last 20 years. Remote sensing observations of Sea Surface Temperature (SST), El Nino, height, winds and ocean color from GOES, National Oceanic and Atmosphere Administration Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR), Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSMI), and SeaWiFS put in context with ten year LANL global ocean model. Compare the Gulf Stream observed by Terra with the simulations. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

Hasler, Arthur F.↗

Powerplant Thermal-Pollution Models

Three models predict nature of thermal plumes from powerplant discharge into water. Free-surface model accomodates major changes in ocean currents. Rigid-model accurately predicts changes in thermal plume caused by other inputs and outputs, such as pumped-water storage and hydroelectric-plant discharges. One-dimensional model predicts approximate stratification in lake with such inputs and outputs over a long period.

Lee, S. S.↗

On the effects of the ocean on atmospheric CFC-11 lifetimes and emissions

The ocean is a reservoir for CFC-11, a major ozone-depleting chemical. Anthropogenic production of CFC-11 dramatically decreased in the 1990s under the Montreal Protocol, which stipulated a global phase out of production by 2010. However, studies raise questions about current overall emission levels and indicate unexpected increases of CFC-11 emissions of about 10 Gg/yr after 2013 (based upon measured atmospheric concentrations and an assumed atmospheric lifetime). These findings heighten the need to understand processes that could affect the CFC-11 lifetime, including ocean fluxes. We evaluate how ocean uptake and release through 2300 affects CFC-11 lifetimes, emission estimates, and the long-term return of CFC-11 from the ocean reservoir. We show that ocean uptake yields a shorter total lifetime and larger inferred emission of atmospheric CFC-11 from 1930 to 2075 compared to estimates using only atmospheric processes. Ocean flux changes over time result in small but not completely negligible effects on the calculated unexpected emissions change (decreasing it by 0.4 ± 0.3 Gg/yr). Moreover, it is expected that the ocean will eventually become a source of CFC-11, increasing its total lifetime thereafter. Ocean outgassing should produce detectable increases in global atmospheric CFC-11 abundances by the mid-2100s, with emission of around 0.5 Gg/yr; this should not be confused with illicit production at that time. An illustrative model projection suggests that climate change is expected to make the ocean a weaker reservoir for CFC-11, advancing the detectable change in the global atmospheric mixing ratio by about 5 yr.

Anthropogenic production of CFC-11↗

Seasonal Cycles of Meridional Overturning and Heat Transport of the Indian Ocean

A general circulation model of the Indian Ocean is fitted to monthly averaged climatological temperatures, salinities, and surface fluxes using the adjoint method. Interannual variability is minimized by penalizing the temporal drift from one seasonal cycle to another during a two-year integration. The resultant meridional overturning and heat transport display large seasonal variations, with maximum amplitudes of 18 and 22 (x 10(exp 6) cubic m/s) for the overturning and 1.8 and 1.4 (x 10(exp 15) W) for heat transport near 10 S and 10 N, respectively. A dynamical decomposition of the overturning and heat transport shows that the time-varying Ekman How plus its barotropic compensation can explain a large part of the seasonal variations in overturning and heat transport. The maximum variations at 10 deg N and 10 deg S are associated with monsoon reversal over the northern Indian Ocean and changes of the easterlies over the southern Indian Ocean. An external mode with variable topography has a moderate contribution where the Somali Current and the corresponding gyre reverse direction seasonally. Contribution front vertical shear (thermal wind and ageostrophic shear) is dominant near the southern boundary and large near the Somali Current latitudes. The dominant balance in the zonally integrated heat budget is between heat storage change and heat transport convergence except south of 15 S. Optimization with seasonal forcings improves estimates of sea surface temperatures, but the annual average overturning and heat transport are very similar to previous results with annual mean forcings. The annual average heat transport consists of roughly equal contributions from time-mean and time-varying fields of meridional velocities and temperatures in the northern Indian Ocean. indicating a significant rectification to the heat transport due to the time-varying fields. The time-mean and time-varying contributions are primarily due to the overturning and horizontal gyre, respectively. Inclusion of TOPEX data enhances the seasonal cycles of the estimated overturning and heat transport in the central Indian Ocean significantly and improves the estimated equatorial zonal flows but leads 10 unrealistic estimates of the velocity structure near the Indonesian Throughflow region, most likely owing to the deficiencies in the lateral boundary conditions.

Lee, Tong↗

On the observed annual cycle in the ocean-atmosphere heat balance over the Northern Hemisphere

Based on the best presently available satellite radiation, atmospheric and oceanic data sets, the long-term mean heat balance of the earth and its normal seasonal variation are investigated over the Northern Hemisphere. Quantitative estimates for the various flux and storage terms in the atmospheric and terrestrial branches of the heat balance are given for 10-deg-wide latitude belts and for each calendar month. The results are presented in both graphical and tabular form. As was known before, the storage of heat in the oceans is found to dominate the energy storage in the combined atmosphere-ocean-land-cryosphere system. In the tropics, large changes in oceanic heat storage are found in the 10 N-20 N belt with a maximum in spring and a minimum in late summer. The main new finding of this study is that the inferred oceanic heat transports appear to undergo very large seasonal variations especially in the tropics.

Oort, A. H.↗

The 1997-1999 Abrupt Change of the Upper Ocean Temperature in the North Central Pacific

The abrupt warming of the north central Pacific Ocean from 1997 to 1999 is studied using an ocean data assimilation product. During this period, the average mixed-layer temperature in the region of 170-210(deg)E, 25-40(deg)N rises by 1.8 K. The major contributors to the warming are surface heat flux (1.3 K), geostrophic advection (0.7 K), and entrainment (0.7 K). For the geostrophic advection, the contributions by the zonal, meridional, and vertical components are 0.4, -0.1 and 0.3 K, respectively. Mixing and meridional Ekman advection have cooling effect. The significance of the geostrophic advection indicates the importance of ocean dynamics in controlling the abrupt warming tendency during the 1997-99 period and the inadequacy of a slab-mixed-layer model in simulating such warming tendency.

climate↗