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At least 127 records · Page 7

Deriving Climate Change Signal from Hyperspectral Sounders Using Spectral Fingerprinting Method

Hyperspectral observations from satellite-based sensors provide high information content for the Earth’s atmospheric temperature, water vapor and trace gas vertical profiles. We have developed a radiometrically consistent spectral fingerprinting method to derive climate change signals from Aqua AIRS/AMSU and S-NPP CrIS/ATMS data. The climate variables include temperature and water vapor profiles, cloud, trace gases, and surface skin temperature. The radiative kernels obtained via a single field of view physical retrieval algorithm under all-sky conditions. A key component to this work is a Principal Component-based Radiative Transfer Model (PCRTM). It is 4 orders of magnitude faster than a line-by-line radiative transfer model while keeping a similar accuracy (0.03 K RMS errors with close to zero bias). The PCRTM includes multiple scattering of clouds and non-thermodynamics equilibrium of CO2 in the RT calculations. Instead of quantifying the radiometric differences between AIRS/AMSU and CrIS/ATMS measurements directly using Simultaneous Nadir Overpass (SNO) or Double Difference Technique (DDT), we use the radiometric consistent fingerprinting scheme to derive two sets of space-time averaged anomalies from the Level 1 data of AIRS/AMSU and CrIS/ATMS. The derived anomalies in geophysical space will form a long-term, stable, and continuous climate data record. We can further infer the causes of any offset or drift by studying the differences between two overlapping data sets. For example, the offset in surface skin temperature anomaly time series will most likely caused by the Blackbody temperature calibration errors of the sounder instruments.

climate↗

Hailstorm Analyses and Detection Derived from Current and Historical Satellite Data and Convective Environmental Parameters

We seek to demonstrate the extent to which hailstorms can be detected using a combination of geostationary (GEO) visible and infrared metrics of storm intensity and convective environmental parameters from reanalysis. Hailstorm identifications from low-Earth-orbiting (LEO) passive microwave sensors and maximum expected size of hail (MESH) from ground-based radar serve as a proxy for hail events. Data are analyzed for two warm seasons over the contiguous United States (CONUS). A neural network (NN) is trained to predict hailstorm detection dependent on optimal multi-variate weighting of observed and modeled input. The NN results are then applied to a 15-year Meteosat Second Generation climatology over South Africa to depict where hailstorms are most likely to occur. We also explore the impact of GEO imager resolution on our ability to discriminate hailstorms by matching GOES-13 (4 km) and GOES-16 (2 km) storm intensity metrics against hail characteristics using LEO, MESH, and spotter reports over CONUS during 2017, when both satellites were simultaneously imaging. Such analysis allows us to assess the feasibility of assembling a severe storm climate data record back to GOES-8, in the mid-1990’s. Finer spatial resolution of GOES-16 better resolves the updraft characteristics and intensities that are inherently linked to hail formation; however, GOES-13 can be normalized to achieve comparable detection capability. When intelligently combined with model-derived convective environmental parameters, GEO-derived storm intensity metrics enable high-spatial resolution hail risk assessment at hourly intervals throughout the diurnal cycle anywhere around the world and an improved understanding of hailstorms in the climate system.

Kyle F Itterly↗

Homogenized Water Vapor Absorption Band Radiances From International Geostationary Satellites

In the past 20+ years, GEO Imagers with infrared 6.5‐μm bands have been observing the Earth's atmosphere, providing useful information of upper tropospheric moisture. Due to the instrumental differences and local viewing angles in GEO satellites, these observations are not consistent for generating climate data records (CDRs). In this study, a methodology has been developed to homogenize the 6.5‐μm radiances from the international GEO satellites, to generate a consistent CDR. Validations with Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer radiances from Metops for 2015–2017for seven GEO Imager sensors show that the GEO radiances are homogenized well with small standard deviation and biases of the differences (smaller for newer sensors), temporally stable radiometric accuracy, and weak angle dependency (even weaker for sensors with two water vapor bands). The homogenized 20+ years of consistent 6.5‐μm radiance CDR can be used to evaluate reanalysis and climate models, especially the diurnal variation of the model simulation.

Water Vapor↗

The Impact of Drifting Orbits on the Monthly Regional TOA Flux Assuming Constant Meteorology

The NASA Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) gridded Single Scanner Footprint (SSF1deg) product provides TOA SW and LW monthly 1° regional all-sky fluxes, which are used to monitor the Earth’s energy balance. The CERES long-term climate data record relies on Terra and Aqua satellite sun-synchronous orbits that are maintained at 10:30 and 1:30 local equator crossing times (LECT), respectively. The Terra and Aqua satellites are expected to drift outside of their respective LECT during mid 2022. Both Terra and Aqua will drift over several years towards sunrise and sunset, respectively, and eventually will be deorbited. The CERES SSF1deg product monthly regional fluxes are based on the well calibrated and stable CERES observed fluxes and are temporally interpolated assuming constant meteorology between measurements to resolve the regional diurnal flux cycle to obtain a daily averaged flux. The drifting orbits may impact the monthly regional TOA flux over regions with systematic diurnal cycles, because the observations will shift in local time. The CERES project would like to determine the maximum Terra and Aqua LECT time shift before the monthly regional fluxes are diurnally impacted and become unreliable for long-term climate monitoring. To determine the impact of the drifting orbits on the SSF1deg monthly regional fluxes,15-minute Geostationary Earth Radiation Budget (GERB) broadband observed fluxes over the Meteosat geostationary satellite domain (±60° in longitude and latitude) are used as proxy CERES observations. The drifting orbit sampling pattern is achieved by simply incrementing the observation time by steps of 15 minutes from the CERES footprint time. For each 15-minute time interval, the CERES observed fluxes are replaced by the GERB observed fluxes. The-15 minute incremented monthly regional fluxes based on constant meteorology are compared to the reference 10:30 and 1:30 LECT fluxes. Regions with systematic diurnal cycles, include morning maritime stratus, where the clouds dissipate during the morning, and land afternoon convection, where clouds increase in the afternoon will impact the regional flux differences. Based on January and July 2010 GERB data, even a 15-minute LECT change caused regional monthly flux differences that would impact long term regional trend analysis. Results will be shown at the conference.

David Doelling↗

The Orbital Drift Impact on the Monthly Regional TOA Flux Assuming Constant Meteorology

The NASA Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) gridded Single Scanner Footprint (SSF1deg) product provides TOA SW and LW monthly 1° regional all-sky fluxes, which are used to monitor the Earth’s energy balance. The CERES long-term climate data record relies on Terra and Aqua satellite sun-synchronous orbits that are maintained at 10:30 and 1:30 local equator crossing times (LECT), respectively. The Terra and Aqua satellites are expected to drift outside of their respective LECT during mid 2022. Both Terra and Aqua will drift over several years towards sunrise and sunset, respectively, and eventually will be deorbited. The CERES SSF1deg product monthly regional fluxes are based on the well calibrated and stable CERES observed fluxes and are temporally interpolated assuming constant meteorology between measurements to resolve the regional diurnal flux cycle to obtain a daily averaged flux. The drifting orbits may impact the monthly regional TOA flux over regions with systematic diurnal cycles, because the observations will shift in local time. The CERES project would like to determine the maximum Terra and Aqua LECT time shift before the monthly regional fluxes are diurnally impacted and become unreliable for long-term climate monitoring. To determine the impact of the drifting orbits on the SSF1deg monthly regional fluxes,15-minute Geostationary Earth Radiation Budget (GERB) broadband observed fluxes over the Meteosat geostationary satellite domain (±60° in longitude and latitude) are used as proxy CERES observations. The drifting orbit sampling pattern is achieved by simply incrementing the observation time by steps of 15 minutes from the CERES footprint time. For each 15-minute time interval, the CERES observed fluxes are replaced by the GERB observed fluxes. The-15 minute incremented monthly regional fluxes based on constant meteorology are compared to the reference 10:30 and 1:30 LECT fluxes. Regions with systematic diurnal cycles, include morning maritime stratus, where the clouds dissipate during the morning, and land afternoon convection, where clouds increase in the afternoon will impact the regional flux differences. Based on January and July 2010 GERB data, even a 15-minute LECT change caused regional monthly flux differences that would impact long term regional trend analysis. Results will be shown at the conference.

D R Doelling↗

Continuing Global SO2 Data Record from OMI and SNPP/OMPS to JPSS-1/NOAA-20/OMPS

Since 2004, the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) aboard NASA's Earth Observing System (EOS) Aura spacecraft has been providing global observations that help to constrain the sources, transport, and environmental impacts of anthropogonic and volcanic SO2. The OMI SO2 data record is now being continued with the NASA/NOAA Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (SNPP)/Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite (OMPS) launched in 2011. Both OMI and SNPP/OMPS SO2 products are produced with the Goddard principal component analysis (PCA) based spectral fitting algorithm. This data-driven technique inherently accounts for various instrumental factors and geophysical interferences, leading to high-quality, consistent SO2 retrievals between OMI and SNPP/OMPS, despite coarser spectral (~0.5 nm vs. ~1 nm) and spatial (13  24 km2 vs. 50  50 km2 at nadir) resolution for the latter. In this presentation, we describe our effort to continue the long-term SO2 climate data record using measurements from the Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS)-1/NOAA-20 (N20)/OMPS. Launched in 2017, the N20/OMPS is a follow-on for SNPP/OMPS but features a spatial resolution (17  13 km2) that is comparable with OMI. We will discuss our progress implementing the PCA SO2 algorithm with N20/OMPS, especially algorithmic improvements to further reduce retrieval noise and bias for large volcanic eruptions. We will present examples for both continuously emitting sources (e.g., power plants in India and oil/gas fields in the Middle East) and volcanic eruptions (e.g., Raikoke in 2019). We will also compare N20/OMPS SO2 retrievals with OMI and SNPP/OMPS, as well as other instruments such as the ESA Copernicus Sentinel-5 Precursor (S5P)/TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI). To assess the ability of N20/OMPS to monitor and quantify SO2 sources, we will run the level 2 retrievals through a top-down emission algorithm to estimate the SO2 emission strengths for a number of point sources. Finally, we will outline our plan for further algorithm refinement and public data release.

SO2↗

Large Scale Covariability in the Aerosol-SST-Precipitation Relation: A Satellite Perspective

Although large scale aerosol effects on precipitation have attracted increasing attention in recent years, significant uncertainties still remain in the current understanding of'such effects. One of the factors contributing to these uncertainties is the availability of aerosol data sets that are sufficiently long, stable, and comprehensive to be used for climate analysis. Such data sets are crucial for any long-term studies that are needed to demonstrate the statistical significance of large scale aerosol effects on precipitation when compared to the effects from other climate factors, such as remote or local sea surface temperature (SST) variability (ENSO. etc.). A longterm consistent aerosol product that complements the existing MODIS and AVHRR aerosol products is therefore needed to minimize aerosol data uncertainty issues for such Studies. The SeaWiFS instrument was primarily designed to measure ocean color, and it has been the mayor source for providing a comprehensive global data set of such measurements since its launch in 1997. Besides being used in this capacity, however, the well-calibrated set of radiances measured in the wavelength range from the visible (0.41 m) to the near infrared (0.87 m) is also well suited to creating long-term climate data records of aerosols. Recently, a new 13-year SeaWiFS aerosol optical depth dataset has been developed that expands its capacity to be used for such atmospheric studies. This SeaWiFS aerosol product provides us with an unprecedented opportunity to examine the covariability of aerosol, SST and precipitation on both a regional and global scale. We also use concurrent independent SST (NOAA Optimum Interpolation, OI, SST V2) and precipitation (GPCP V2) datasets for this study. We will present and discuss results from this study over several aerosol hot spot regions ( -,North Atlantic. South Atlantic, Western Pacific, Indian Ocean etc.) during the SeaWIFS data period (1997 -- current) from this study will be presented and discussed. These results will highlight the value and impact of this unique product to climate studies

Hsu, N. Christina↗

Generating Essential Climate Variables from Multiple Satellite Hyperspectral Remote Sensors

Hyperspectral observations from satellite-based sensors provide high information content for the Earth’s atmospheric and surface properties. Traditionally, long-term climate products are derived by performing spatial and temporal averaging of level-2 satellite products. There are two shortcomings of this approach. First, it is a time-consuming process to generate level-2 data products since modern hyperspectral satellite sensors have millions of observations each day with thousands of spectral channels for each observation. Secondly, differences in level-2 retrieval algorithms can lead to errors in the fused multi-satellite data. We have developed a radiometrically consistent spectral fingerprinting method, which overcomes the above-mentioned shortcomings, to derive climate change signals from multiple satellite sensors using spatiotemporally averaged level-1 data. We have applied this method to data collected from Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) on Aqua satellite and Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS) on SNPP and NOAA20 and generated decade-long climate data records for atmospheric temperature, water vapor, cloud, trace gases, and surface skin temperature. A key component to this work is a set of observational-based radiative kernels produced from CrIS level-1 data using a single field of view (SFOV) optimal estimation retrieval algorithm. Only limited CrIS level-1 data (e.g., 1-2 years of data) are needed to the derive radiative kernels. Our Principal Component-based Radiative Model (PCRTM) enables us to perform SFOV retrievals under all sky conditions and provides radiative kernels (including those for clouds) needed by the spectral fingerprinting method. In this presentation, we will describe the basic methodology, the details of the algorithm, and results from NASA Aqua AIRS and Suomi-NPP CrIS data. The method can be applied to study future hyperspectral remote sensors such as CLARREO (Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory) Pathfinder (CPF), Tropospheric Emissions: Monitoring of Pollution (TEMPO), Surface Biology and Geology (SBG), Atmosphere Observing System (AOS).

Xu Liu↗

Deriving Essential Climate Variable Data from Multiple Satellite Remote Sensors Using a Consistent Fingerprinting Method

Hyperspectral observations from satellite-based sensors provide high information content for the Earth’s atmospheric and surface properties. Traditionally, long-term climate products are derived by performing spatial and temporal averaging of level-2 satellite products. It is a time-consuming process to generate level-2 data products since modern hyperspectral satellite sensors have millions of observations each day with thousands of spectral channels for each observation. Additionally, differences in level-2 retrieval algorithms can lead to errors in the climate products when fusing data from different satellite sensors. We have developed a radiometrically consistent spectral fingerprinting method, which overcomes the above-mentioned shortcomings, to derive climate change signals from multiple satellite sensors using spatiotemporally averaged level-1 data. We have applied this method to Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS) data and generated decade-long climate data records for atmospheric temperature, water vapor, cloud, trace gases, and surface skin temperature. A key component to this work is a set of observational-based radiative kernels produced from CrIS level-1 data using a single field of view (SFOV) optimal estimation retrieval algorithm. Only limited CrIS level-1 data (e.g., 1-2 years of data) are needed to the derive radiative kernels. Our Principal Component-based Radiative Model (PCRTM) enables us to perform SFOV retrievals under all sky conditions and provides radiative kernels (including those for clouds) needed by the spectral fingerprinting method. In this presentation, we will describe the basic methodology, the details of the algorithm, and results from NASA Aqua AIRS and Suomi-NPP CrIS data. The method can be applied to study future hyperspectral remote sensors such as CLARREO (Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory) Pathfinder (CPF), Tropospheric Emissions: Monitoring of Pollution (TEMPO), Surface Biology and Geology (SBG), Aerosol and Cloud, Convection and Precipitation (ACCP).

Xu Liu↗

A User-Focused Renovation of CERES Metadata

Production software and public data products for Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) continue to evolve as the project extends its climate data record. The data management team for CERES is currently undertaking major renovations of both code and data products, the latter of which is, of course, in service of improving user experience. A major mode of CERES’ data product improvement is in renovating products’ metadata. Metadata standards have evolved since CERES began producing its data products in 2000. In its twentieth year, CERES essentially asked the question: how would the project design its data products if it could start all over again? With forthcoming editions, this rebirth will be realized. CERES has redesigned its metadata standards to best position itself for data discoverability. The project has used the latest standards being developed in NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information Systems (ESDIS) Project’s Unified Metadata Model (UMM) documentation; collaborated with the Atmospheric Science Data Center (ASDC) to ensure compliance with Common Metadata Repository compatibility, and continued compliance with Climate and Forecast (CF) Conventions. In doing so, the team created its own, internal document for proper metadata creation and metadata verification software that is deployed prior to all code deliveries. This presentation will discuss this redesign process, as well as needs met and those that are still outstanding in the search for an improved user experience with CERES data products.

Kathleen Dejwakh↗

Climate Change and Sounder Radiometric Stability

Satellite instrument radiometric stability is critical for climate studies. The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) radiances are of sufficient stability and accuracy to serve as a climate data record as evidenced by comparisons with the global network of buoys. In this paper we examine the sensitivity of derived geophysical products to potential instrument radiometric stability issues due to diurnal, orbital and seasonal variations. Our method is to perturb the AIRS radiances and examine the impact to retrieved parameters. Results show that instability in retrieved temperature products will be on the same order of the brightness temperature error in the radiances and follow the same time dependences. AIRS excellent stability makes it ideal for examining impacts of instabilities of future systems on geophysical parameter performance.

Sounding↗

A global gridded dataset for cloud vertical structure from combined CloudSat and CALIPSO observations

Abstract. The vertical structure of clouds has a profound effect on the global energy budget, the global circulation, and the atmospheric hydrological cycle. The CloudSat and Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) missions have taken complementary, colocated observations of cloud vertical structure for over a decade. However, no globally gridded dataset is available to the public for the full length of this unique combined data record. Here we present the 3S-GEOPROF-COMB product (Bertrand et al. 2023, https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8057791), a globally gridded (level 3S) community data product summarizing geometrical profiles (GEOPROF) of hydrometeor occurrence from combined (COMB) CloudSat and CALIPSO data. Our product is calculated from the latest release (R05) of per-orbit (level-2) combined cloud mask profiles. We process a set of cloud cover, vertical cloud fraction, and sampling variables at 2.5, 5, and 10° spatial resolutions and monthly and seasonal temporal resolutions. We address the 2011 reduction in CloudSat data collection with Daylight-Only Operations (DO-Op) mode by subsampling pre-2011 data to mimic DO-Op collection patterns, thereby allowing users to evaluate the impact of the reduced sampling on their analyses. We evaluate our data product against CloudSat-only and CALIPSO-only global-gridded data products as well as four comparable surface-based sites, underscoring the added value of the combined product. Interest in the product is anticipated for the study of cloud processes, cloud–climate interactions, and as a candidate baseline climate data record for comparison to follow-up satellite missions, among other uses.

Bertrand, Leah (ORCID:0009000001607558)↗

Early Evaluation of the VIIRS Calibration, Cloud Mask and Surface Reflectance Earth Data Records

Surface reflectance is one of the key products fromVIIRS and as withMODIS, is used in developing several higherorder land products. The VIIRS Surface Reflectance (SR) Intermediate Product (IP) is based on the heritageMODIS Collection 5 product (Vermote, El Saleous, & Justice, 2002). The quality and character of surface reflectance depend on the accuracy of the VIIRS Cloud Mask (VCM), the aerosol algorithms and the adequate calibration of the sensor. The focus of this paper is the early evaluation of the VIIRS SR product in the context of the maturity of the operational processing system, the Interface Data Processing System (IDPS). After a brief introduction, the paper presents the calibration performance and the role of the surface reflectance in calibration monitoring. The analysis of the performance of the cloud mask with a focus on vegetation monitoring (no snow conditions) shows typical problems over bright surfaces and high elevation sites. Also discussed is the performance of the aerosol input used in the atmospheric correction and in particular the artifacts generated by the use of the Navy Aerosol Analysis and Prediction System. Early quantitative results of the performance of the SR product over the AERONET sites showthatwith the fewadjustments recommended, the accuracy iswithin the threshold specifications. The analysis of the adequacy of the SR product (Land PEATE adjusted version) in applications of societal benefits is then presented. We conclude with a set of recommendations to ensure consistency and continuity of the JPSS mission with the MODIS Land Climate Data Record.

Surface reflectance↗

Results from CrIS-ATMS Obtained Using the AIRS Science Team Retrieval Methodology

AIRS was launched on EOS Aqua in May 2002, together with AMSU-A and HSB (which subsequently failed early in the mission), to form a next generation polar orbiting infrared and microwave atmospheric sounding system. AIRS/AMSU had two primary objectives. The first objective was to provide real-time data products available for use by the operational Numerical Weather Prediction Centers in a data assimilation mode to improve the skill of their subsequent forecasts. The second objective was to provide accurate unbiased sounding products with good spatial coverage that are used to generate stable multi-year climate data sets to study the earth's interannual variability, climate processes, and possibly long-term trends. AIRS/AMSU data for all time periods are now being processed using the state of the art AIRS Science Team Version-6 retrieval methodology. The Suomi-NPP mission was launched in October 2011 as part of a sequence of Low Earth Orbiting satellite missions under the "Joint Polar Satellite System" (JPSS). NPP carries CrIS and ATMS, which are advanced infra-red and microwave atmospheric sounders that were designed as follow-ons to the AIRS and AMSU instruments. The main objective of this work is to assess whether CrIS/ATMS will be an adequate replacement for AIRS/AMSU from the perspective of the generation of accurate and consistent long term climate data records, or if improved instruments should be developed for future flight. It is critical for CrIS/ATMS to be processed using an algorithm similar to, or at least comparable to, AIRS Version-6 before such an assessment can be made. We have been conducting research to optimize products derived from CrIS/ATMS observations using a scientific approach analogous to the AIRS Version-6 retrieval algorithm. Our latest research uses Version-5.70 of the CrIS/ATMS retrieval algorithm, which is otherwise analogous to AIRS Version-6, but does not yet contain the benefit of use of a Neural-Net first guess start-up system which significantly improved results of AIRS Version-6. Version-5.70 CrIS/ATMS temperature profile and surface skin temperature retrievals are of very good quality, and are better than AIRS Version-5 retrievals, but are still significantly poorer than those of AIRS Version-6. CrIS/ATMS retrievals should improve when a Neural-Net start-up system is ready for use. We also examined CrIS/ATMS retrievals generated by NOAA using their NUCAPS retrieval algorithm, which is based on earlier versions of the AIRS Science Team retrieval algorithms. We show that the NUCAPS algorithm as currently configured is not well suited for climate monitoring purposes.

CrIS↗

MODIS Solar Reflective Calibration Traceability

Long-term climate data records often consist of observations made by multiple sensors. It is, therefore, extremely important to have instrument overlap, to be able to track instrument stability, to quantify, measurement uncertainties, and to establish absolute scale traceable to the International System of Units (SI). The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) is a key instrument for both the Terra and Aqua missions, which were launched in December 1999 and May 2002, respectively. It has 20 reflective solar bands (RSB) with wavelengths from 0.41 to 2.2 micrometers and observes the Earth at three nadir spatial resolutions: 0.25km, 0.5km, and 1km. MODIS RSB on-orbit calibration is reflectance based with reference to the bidirectional reflectance factor (BRF) of its on-board solar diffuser (SD). The SD BRF characterization was made pre-launch by the instrument vendor using reference samples traceable directly to the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST). On-orbit SD reflectance degradation is tracked by an on-board solar diffuser monitor (SDSM). This paper provides details of this calibration chain, from prelaunch to on-orbit operation, and associated uncertainty assessments. Using MODIS as an example, this paper also discusses challenges and key design requirements for future missions developed for accurate climate studies.

Xiong, Xiaoxiong↗

Creating A Consistent Historical NASA POWER Solar Radiation Dataset to Support Renewable Energy, Building Energy Efficiency and Agro-Climatology Decisions

Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resources (POWER) project provides irradiance dataset to support renewable energy, building energy efficiency and agricultural needs. These datasets are derived from Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment Surface Radiation Budget (GEWEX SRB) and Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES SYN1Deg). A systematic bias has been reported between these two datasets for the years with overlapping observations. For obtaining a consistent climate data record spanning the entire time record of observations, it is crucial to understand and remove the bias in the irradiance dataset. Inconsistency in solar radiation data can lead to inaccurate conclusions about solar energy potential and obscure real trends in solar radiation patterns that would impact energy availability assessments. In this study, we adapt quantile mapping approach to remove the systematic bias and to improve reliability of shortwave and longwave irradiance data. We present a validation of the bias corrected data against ground truth. For each 1° latitude and 1° longitude grid box across the globe, we match the CDFs of the reference dataset (CERES SYN1Deg) to that of the SRB dataset, thereby, adjusting the irradiance values to match the empirical distribution of two different measurements. The performance of quantile mapping is evaluated by using the metrics such as Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD). The results indicate that the quantile mapping significantly improves the accuracy and reliability of solar irradiance dataset especially for the weather conditions associated with high cloud cover and extreme irradiance values. The initial range of MAD for the studied sites for daily data was 4 to 19 Wm-2. After correction these reduced to 3 to 7 Wm-2. The findings from this study have important implications for solar energy system design, agricultural planning, and climate modeling community. Reducing the inconsistency and biases in solar irradiance dataset can enable better planning and operation of solar energy systems, leading to increased efficiency and cost-effectiveness. Additionally, this work also contributes to the statistical post-processing techniques in the renewable energy domain and highlights the potential of historical and near-real-time NASA POWER dataset as a valuable resource for solar energy research and applications.

POWER↗

Retrospective Analysis and Bayesian Model Averaging of CMIP6 Precipitation in the Nile River Basin

The Nile River basin is one of the global hotspots vulnerable to climate change impacts because of a fast-growing population and geopolitical tensions. Previous studies demonstrated that general circulation models (GCMs) frequently show disagreement in the sign of change in annual precipitation projections. Here, we first evaluate the performance of 20 GCMs from phase six of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) benchmarked against a high-spatial-resolution precipitation dataset dating back to 1983 from Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information Using Artificial Neural Networks–Climate Data Record (PERSIANN-CDR). Next, a Bayesian model averaging (BMA) approach is adopted to derive probability distributions of precipitation projections in the Nile basin. Retrospective analysis reveals that most GCMs exhibit considerable (up to 64% of mean annual precipitation) and spatially heterogenous bias in simulating annual precipitation. Moreover, it is shown that all GCMs underestimate interannual variability; thus, the ensemble range is underdispersive and is a poor indicator of uncertainty. The projected changes from the BMA model show that the value and sign of change vary considerably across the Nile basin. Specifically, it is found that projected changes in the two headwaters basins, namely, the Blue Nile and Upper White Nile, are 0.03% and -1.65%, respectively; both are statistically insignificant at α = 0.05. The uncertainty range estimated from the BMA model shows that the probability of a precipitation decrease is much higher in the Upper White Nile basin whereas projected change in the Blue Nile is highly uncertain both in magnitude and sign of change.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Unveiling four decades of intensifying precipitation from tropical cyclones using satellite measurements

Increases in precipitation rates and volumes from tropical cyclones (TCs) caused by anthropogenic warming are predicted by climate modeling studies and have been identified in several high intensity storms occurring over the last half decade. However, it has been difficult to detect historical trends in TC precipitation at time scales long enough to overcome natural climate variability because of limitations in existing precipitation observations. We introduce an experimental global high-resolution climate data record of precipitation produced using infrared satellite imagery and corrected at the monthly scale by a gauge-derived product that shows generally good performance during two hurricane case studies but estimates higher mean precipitation rates in the tropics than the evaluation datasets. General increases in mean and extreme rainfall rates during the study period of 1980–2019 are identified, culminating in a 12–18%/40-year increase in global rainfall rates. Overall, all basins have experienced intensification in precipitation rates. Increases in rainfall rates have boosted the mean precipitation volume of global TCs by 7–15% over 40 years, with the starkest rises seen in the North Atlantic, South Indian, and South Pacific basins (maximum 59–64% over 40 years). In terms of inland rainfall totals, year-by-year trends are generally positive due to increasing TC frequency, slower decay over land, and more intense rainfall, with an alarming increase of 81–85% seen from the strongest global TCs. As the global trend in precipitation rates follows expectations from warming sea surface temperatures (11.1%/°C), we hypothesize that the observed trends could be a result of anthropogenic warming creating greater concentrations of water vapor in the atmosphere, though retrospective studies of TC dynamics over the period are needed to confirm.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗