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Exposure to heat exacerbated by an increase in urbanization as well as increasing global temperatures has become a growing concern for cities and their residents. Excess heat can cause increased heat-related morbidity, mortality, and energy costs. Vulnerability to heat-related illnesses is oftentimes correlated to demographics, socioeconomic status, and pre-existing health conditions. The City of San Diego, California boasts 1.4 million residents and, like many other major cities, has experienced increases in heat-related hospitalizations and mortality. The burden of urban heat is also not equal amongst communities; areas with lower income and communities of color bear a disproportionate burden. In partnership with the City of San Diego, and American Geophysical Union’s (AGU) Thriving Earth Exchange, the DEVELOP team used Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) and Thermal Infrared Sensor (TIRS), and ECOsystem Spaceborne Thermal Radiometer Experiment on Space Station (ECOSTRESS) imagery to identify areas of highest heat based on land surface temperature from 2015-2020. Our analyses showed that health demographics such as obesity and cardiovascular health were the strongest indicators for heat vulnerability. In addition, various inputs (land use/land cover, tree canopy, and building intensity derived from the City of San Diego data along with albedo from Landsat 8) were used in the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) urban cooling model to investigate changes in cooling rates in current and future scenarios for the city. The model results showed that cooling is expected to occur due to a 5% increase in tree canopy. The City of San Diego can use these results to inform the development of the Climate Resilient San Diego plan and prioritize at-risk communities for cooling interventions.
Over the past 37years, satellite records show an increase in Antarctic sea ice cover that is most pronounced in the period of sea ice growth. This trend is dominated by increased sea ice coverage in the western Ross Sea, and is mitigated by a strong decrease in the Bellingshausen and Amundsen seas. The trends in sea ice areal coverage are accompanied by related trends in yearly duration. These changes have implications for ecosystems, as well as global and regional climate. In this review, we summarize the researchto date on observing these trends, identifying their drivers, and assessing the role of anthropogenic climate change. Whilst the atmosphere is thought to be the primary driver, the ocean is also essential in explaining the seasonality of the trend patterns. Detecting an anthropogenic signal in Antarctic sea ice is particularly challenging for a number of reasons: the expected response is small compared to the very high natural variability of the system; the observational record is relatively short; and the ability of global coupled climate models to faithfully represent the complex Antarctic climate system is in doubt.
Streamflow often increases after fire, but the persistence of this effect and its importance to present and future regional water resources are unclear. This paper addresses these knowledge gaps for the western United States (WUS), where annual forest fire area increased by more than 1,100% during 1984 to 2020. Among 72 forested basins across the WUS that burned between 1984 and 2019, the multibasin mean streamflow was significantly elevated by 0.19 SDs ( P < 0.01) for an average of 6 water years postfire, compared to the range of results expected from climate alone. Significance is assessed by comparing prefire and postfire streamflow responses to climate and also to streamflow among 107 control basins that experienced little to no wildfire during the study period. The streamflow response scales with fire extent: among the 29 basins where >20% of forest area burned in a year, streamflow over the first 6 water years postfire increased by a multibasin average of 0.38 SDs, or 30%. Postfire streamflow increases were significant in all four seasons. Historical fire–climate relationships combined with climate model projections suggest that 2021 to 2050 will see repeated years when climate is more fire-conducive than in 2020, the year currently holding the modern record for WUS forest area burned. These findings center on relatively small, minimally managed basins, but our results suggest that burned areas will grow enough over the next 3 decades to enhance streamflow at regional scales. Wildfire is an emerging driver of runoff change that will increasingly alter climate impacts on water supplies and runoff-related risks.
Interest in a more complete understanding of the sources, composition and microphysics of stratospheric aerosol particles has intensified during recent years for several reasons: (1) small volcanic eruptions have been recognized as a driver of short-term changes in climate forcing; (2) emissions of sulfur dioxide (SO2) and other aerosol precursors have shifted to south Asia and other low latitude regions with intense vertical transport; (3) organic material has been recognized as a key contributor to lower stratospheric aerosol mass; and (4) interest in possible solar radiation management (geoengineering) through significant enhancements in stratospheric aerosols has intensified. To address stratospheric aerosol science issues, we are proposing a NASA Earth Ventures mission to NASA to provide extensive high-altitude aircraft measurements of critical gas-phase and aerosol properties at multiple locations across the planet. In this presentation, we will discuss the objectives of the proposed campaign, the measurements provided, the sampling strategy, and the modeling and analysis approaches that would be used to address specific science questions.
Wildland fires in the Arctic are expected to become more frequent and more severe. In recent years, extreme fire seasons have been documented across the Pan-Arctic and boreal in five of the last seven years – including large wildfires in Greenland in 2017 and 2019 over tundra and high carbon soil landscapes and an earlier start of extreme fire seasons in 2023. Future Arctic and boreal fire regimes will experience increased fire risk though the end of this century (McCarty et al., 2021, Senande-Rivera et al., 2022). The main factors affecting the severity and frequency of wildland fires are fuels (vegetated biomass and type of biomass) and fuel condition (dryness), fire weather conditions (relative humidity, drought, precipitation), and ignition (human-caused, lightning). Climate change directly influences all of these drivers, and indirectly also some human-caused ignitions.
Liquid water was abundant on early Mars, but whether the climate was warm and wet or cold and icy with punctuated periods of melting is still poorly understood. Modern climate models for Mars tend to predict a colder, icier early climate than previously imagined. In addition, ice and glaciation have been major geologic agents throughout the later Hesperian and Amazonian eras. One process that can act in such climates is repeated freezing and thawing of water on the surface and in the subsurface, and is significant because it can occur anywhere with an active layer and could have persisted for a time after liquid water was no longer stable on Mars’ surface. As freeze-thaw is the dominant mechanical weathering process in most glacial/periglacial terrains, it was likely a significant geomorphologic driver at local to regional scales during past climates, and would potentially have been most active when day-average surface temperatures exceeded 0 °C for part of the year. Indeed, freeze-thaw involving liquid water in the Amazonian is evidenced by abundant geomorphic features including polygonal ground and solifluction lobes requiring seasonal thawing. In addition to physical modification, freezing can drive solutions towards supersaturation and force dissolved solutes out as precipitates. In Mars-like terrains, dissolved solutes are typically dominated by silica. In polar regions on Earth, freeze-thaw cycles have been shown to promote deposition of silica, and freeze-thaw experiments on synthetic solutions found stable amorphous silica that built up over multiple cycles. Freeze-thaw may therefore be an important but overlooked chemical weathering process on Mars. However, our ability to assess its impact on alteration of martian terrains is majorly limited by the current lack of understanding of the alteration phases produced (and formation rates) under controlled freeze-thaw weathering of Mars-relevant materials. To address this knowledge gap, we report results from (1) freeze-thaw weathering products found at a glacial Mars analog site at the Three Sisters, Oregon, and (2) new controlled freeze-thaw experiments on basaltic material.
Evidence-based responses to climate change by society require operational and sustained information including biophysical indicator systems that provide up-to-date measures of trends and patterns against historical baselines. Two key components linking anthropogenic climate change to impacts on socio-ecological systems are the periodic inter- and intra-annual variations in physical climate systems (seasonality) and in plant and animal life cycles (phenology). We describe a set of national indicators that reflect sub-seasonal to seasonal drivers and responses of terrestrial physical and biological systems to climate change and variability at the national scale. Proposed indicators and metrics include seasonality of surface climate conditions (e.g., frost and freeze dates and durations), seasonality of freeze/thaw in freshwater systems (e.g., timing of stream runoff and durations of lake/river ice), seasonality in ecosystem disturbances (e.g., wildfire season timing and duration), seasonality in vegetated land surfaces (e.g., green-up and brown-down of landscapes), and seasonality of organismal life-history stages (e.g., timings of bird migration). Recommended indicators have strong linkages to variable and changing climates, include abiotic and biotic responses and feedback mechanisms, and are sufficiently simple to facilitate communication to broad audiences and stakeholders interested in understanding and adapting to climate change.
The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an important driver of regional hydroclimate variability through far-reaching teleconnections. This study uses simulations performed with Coupled General Circulation Models (CGCMs) to investigate how regional precipitation in the 21st century may be affected by changes in both ENSO-driven precipitation variability and slowly-evolving mean rainfall. First, a dominant, time-invariant pattern of canonical ENSO variability (cENSO) is identified in observed SST data. Next, the fidelity with which 33 state-of-the-art CGCMs represent the spatial structure and temporal variability of this pattern (as well as its associated precipitation responses) is evaluated in simulations of 20th century climate change. Possible changes in both the temporal variability of this pattern and its associated precipitation teleconnections are investigated in 21st century climate projections. Models with better representation of the observed structure of the cENSO pattern produce winter rainfall teleconnection patterns that are in better accord with 20th century observations and more stationary during the 21st century. Finally, the model-predicted 21st century rainfall response to cENSO is decomposed into the sum of three terms: 1) the 21st century change in the mean state of precipitation; 2) the historical precipitation response to the cENSO pattern; and 3) a future enhancement in the rainfall response to cENSO, which amplifies rainfall extremes. By examining the three terms jointly, this conceptual framework allows the identification of regions likely to experience future rainfall anomalies that are without precedent in the current climate.
The extent and impact of climate‐related extreme events depend on the underlying meteorological, hydrological, or climatological drivers as well as on human factors such as land use or population density. Here we quantify the pure effect of historical and future climate change on the exposure of land and population to extreme climate impact events using an unprecedentedly large ensemble of harmonized climate impact simulations from the Inter‐Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project phase 2b. Our results indicate that global warming has already more than doubled both the global land area and the global population annually exposed to all six categories of extreme events considered: river floods, tropical cyclones, crop failure, wildfires, droughts, and heatwaves. Global warming of 2°C relative to preindustrial conditions is projected to lead to a more than five‐fold increase in cross‐category aggregate exposure globally. Changes in exposure are unevenly distributed, with tropical and subtropical regions facing larger increases than higher latitudes. The largest increases in overall exposure are projected for the population of South Asia.
The Greenland Ice Sheet discharges ice to the ocean through hundreds of outlet glaciers. Recent acceleration of Greenland outlet glaciers has been linked to both oceanic and atmospheric drivers. Here, we leverage temporally dense observations, regional climate model output, and newly developed time series analysis tools to assess the most important forcings causing ice flow variability at one of the largest Greenland outlet glaciers, Helheim Glacier, from 2009 to 2017. We find that ice speed correlates most strongly with catchment-integrated runoff at seasonal to interannual scales, while multi-annual flow variability correlates most strongly with multi-annual terminus variability. The disparate time scales and the influence of subglacial topography on Helheim Glacier’s dynamics highlight different regimes that can inform modeling and forecasting of its future. Notably, our results suggest that the recent terminus history observed at Helheim is a response to, rather than the cause of, upstream changes.
In a changing climate, the likelihood of hydrologic extremes has been increasing as climate change can impact both means and extremes4 of hydrologic cycle processes, potentially resulting in an increased frequency of floods in some regions and decreases in others. In a warming world, the physical processes that affect hydrologic response, such as rain-on snow runoff events, are also changing, such that the seasonality of streamflow has been shifting. The geography of rain-on-snow runoff events is predicted to move from low to high elevations. In addition to floods, there is also potential for an increase in dry extremes in a warming world with increased drought frequency and occurrences in many parts of the world. The increased frequency of drought and heatwave events is expected to have consequences such as escalating crop failures in future projection scenarios1. Thus, the consensus of literature shows that climate change is increasing the magnitude and frequency of extreme hydrologic events, and the human influence in many of these events is substantial.
The Mars Exploration Rovers Mars '03 mission is one of NASA's most ambitious science missions to date. The rovers will be launched in the summer of 2003 with each rover carrying instruments to conduct remote and in-situ observation to elucidate the planet's past climate, water activity, and habitability. Science is the primary driver of MER and, as a consequence, making best use of the scientific instruments, within the available resources, is a crucial aspect of the mission. To address this critically, the MER project has selected MAPGEN (Mixed-Initiative Activity Plan GENerator) as an activity planning tool. MAPGEN combines two exiting systems, each with a strong heritage: APGEN the Activity Planning tool from the Jet Propulsion Laboratory and the Europs Planning/Scheduling system from NASA Ames Research Center. This paper discusses the issues arising from combining these tools in the context of this mission.
Changing hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions increasingly put pressure on fresh water resources and are expected to aggravate water scarcity conditions towards the future. Despite numerous calls for risk-based water scarcity assessments, a global-scale framework that includes UNISDR's definition of risk does not yet exist. This study provides a first step towards such a risk based assessment, applying a Gamma distribution to estimate water scarcity conditions at the global scale under historic and future conditions, using multiple climate change and population growth scenarios. Our study highlights that water scarcity risk, expressed in terms of expected annual exposed population, increases given all future scenarios, up to greater than 56.2% of the global population in 2080. Looking at the drivers of risk, we find that population growth outweigh the impacts of climate change at global and regional scales. Using a risk-based method to assess water scarcity, we show the results to be less sensitive than traditional water scarcity assessments to the use of fixed threshold to represent different levels of water scarcity. This becomes especially important when moving from global to local scales, whereby deviations increase up to 50% of estimated risk levels.
The Caucasus Mountains harbor high concentrations of endemic species and provide an abundance of ecosystem services yet are significantly understudied compared to other ecosystems in Eurasia. In the country of Georgia, at the heart of the Caucasus region, forest degradation has been the largest land change process over the last thirty years. The prevailing narrative is that legal and illegal cutting of trees for fuelwood is primarily responsible for this process. Yet, since independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, the country has undergone rapid socioeconomic and institutional changes which have not been explored as drivers of forest change. We combine newly available land-cover change estimates, Georgian statistical data, and historical institutional change data to examine socioeconomic drivers of forest degradation. Our analysis controls for concurrent changes in climate that would affect degradation and examines variation at the regional (state) level from 2011 to 2019, as well as at the national level from 1987 to 2019. We find that higher winter temperature and drought are associated with higher degradation at the regional scale, while major institutional changes and drought are associated with higher forest degradation at the national level. Access to natural gas, the major energy alternative to fuelwood, had no significant association with degradation. Our results challenge the narrative that poverty and a lack of alternative energy infrastructure drive forest degradation and suggest that government policies banning household fuelwood cutting, including the new Forest Code of 2020, may not reduce forest degradation. Given these results, improved data on wood harvesting and more research on the commercial drivers of degradation and their links to economic and political reforms is needed to better inform forest policy in the region, especially given ongoing risks from climate change.
Hydroclimate extremes critically affect human and natural systems, but there remain many unanswered questions about their causes and how to interpret their dynamics in the past and in climate change projections. These uncertainties are due, in part, to the lack of long-term, spatially resolved hydroclimate reconstructions and information on the underlying physical drivers for many regions. Here we present the first global reconstructions of hydroclimate and associated climate dynamical variables over the past two thousand years. We use a data assimilation approach tailored to reconstruct hydroclimate that optimally combines 2,978 paleoclimate proxy-data time series with the physical constraints of an atmosphere?ocean climate model. The global reconstructions are annually or seasonally resolved and include two spatiotemporal drought indices, near-surface air temperature, an index of North Atlantic variability, the location of the intertropical convergence zone, and monthly Nino indices. This database, called the Paleo Hydrodynamics Data Assimilation product (PHYDA), will provide a critical new platform for investigating the causes of past climate variability and extremes, while informing interpretations of future hydroclimate projections.
There is considerable uncertainty as to whether interannual variability in climate and terrestrial ecosystem production is sufficient to explain observed variation in atmospheric carbon content over the past 20-30 years. In this paper, we investigated the response of net CO2 exchange in terrestrial ecosystems to interannual climate variability (1983 to 1988) using global satellite observations as drivers for the NASA-CASA (Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach) simulation model. This computer model of net ecosystem production (NEP) is calibrated for interannual simulations driven by monthly satellite vegetation index data (NDVI) from the NOAA Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) at 1 degree spatial resolution. Major results from NASA-CASA simulations suggest that from 1985 to 1988, the northern middle-latitude zone (between 30 and 60 degrees N) was the principal region driving progressive annual increases in global net primary production (NPP; i.e., the terrestrial biosphere sink for carbon). The average annual increase in NPP over this predominantly northern forest zone was on the order of +0.4 Pg (10 (exp 15) g) C per year. This increase resulted mainly from notable expansion of the growing season for plant carbon fixation toward the zonal latitude extremes, a pattern uniquely demonstrated in our regional visualization results. A net biosphere source flux of CO2 in 1983-1984, coinciding with an El Nino event, was followed by a major recovery of global NEP in 1985 which lasted through 1987 as a net carbon sink of between 0.4 and 2.6 Avg C per year. Analysis of model controls on NPP and soil heterotrophic CO2 fluxes (Rh) suggests that regional warming in northern forests can enhance ecosystem production significantly. In seasonally dry tropical zones, periodic drought and temperature drying effects may carry over with at least a two-year lag time to adversely impact ecosystem production. These yearly patterns in our model-predicted NEP are consistent in magnitude with the estimated exchange of CO2 by the terrestrial biosphere with the atmosphere, as determined by previous isotopic (delta (sup 13 C) convolution analysis. Ecosystem simulation results can help further target locations where net carbon sink fluxes have occurred in the past or may be verified in subsequent field studies.
Radiative forcing (RF) time series for total ozone from 1850 up to present-day are calculated based on historical simulations of ozone from 10 climate models contributing to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). In addition, RF is calculated for ozone fields prepared as input for CMIP6 models without chemistry schemes and from a chemical transport model simulation. A radiative kernel for ozone is constructed and used to derive the RF. The ozone RF in 2010 (200530 -2014) relative to 1850 is 0.35 W m-2 [0.08 to 0.61] (5-95% uncertainty range) based on models with both tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry. One of these models has a negative present-day total ozone RF. Excluding this model, the present-day ozone RF increases to 0.39 W m-2 [0.27 to 0.51] (533 - 95% uncertainty range). The rest of the models have RF close to or stronger than the RF time series assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in the fifth assessment report with the primary driver likely being the new precursor emissions used in CMIP6. The rapid adjustments beyond stratospheric temperature are estimated to be weak and thus the RF is a good measure of effective radiative forcing.