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NASA NTRS2016

Thermal Testing and Model Correlation for Advanced Topographic Laser Altimeter Instrument (ATLAS)

The Advanced Topographic Laser Altimeter System (ATLAS) part of the Ice Cloud and Land Elevation Satellite 2 (ICESat-2) is an upcoming Earth Science mission focusing on the effects of climate change. The flight instrument passed all environmental testing at GSFC (Goddard Space Flight Center) and is now ready to be shipped to the spacecraft vendor for integration and testing. This topic covers the analysis leading up to the test setup for ATLAS thermal testing as well as model correlation to flight predictions. Test setup analysis section will include areas where ATLAS could not meet flight like conditions and what were the limitations. Model correlation section will walk through changes that had to be made to the thermal model in order to match test results. The correlated model will then be integrated with spacecraft model for on-orbit predictions.

Thermal↗

NASA NTRS1993

Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM)/CART site

The DOE's Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) goals are as follows: (1) to provide an experimental test bed for improving the treatment of radiative transfer in global climate models (GCM's) under all kinds of cloud cover; and (2) to improve the parameterization and modeling of cloud formation, maintenance, dissipation, and related processes in GCM's. The scientific requirements which are most critical to the objectives of ARM are discussed.

Pennell, Bill↗

NASA NTRS2005

The Effect of Environmental Conditions on Tropical Deep Convective Systems Observed from the TRMM Satellite

This study uses measurements of radiation and cloud properties taken between January and August 1998 by three Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) instruments, the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) scanner, the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI), and the Visible and InfraRed Scanner (VIRS), to evaluate the variations of tropical deep convective systems (DCS) with sea surface temperature (SST) and precipitation. This study finds that DCS precipitation efficiency increases with SST at a rate of approx. 2%/K. Despite increasing rainfall efficiency, the cloud areal coverage rises with SST at a rate of about 7%/K in the warm tropical seas. There, the boundary layer moisture supply for deep convection and the moisture transported to the upper troposphere for cirrus-anvil cloud formation increase by approx. 6.3%/K and approx. 4.0%/K, respectively. The changes in cloud formation efficiency, along with the increased transport of moisture available for cloud formation, likely contribute to the large rate of increasing DCS areal coverage. Although no direct observations are available, the increase of cloud formation efficiency with rising SST is deduced indirectly from measurements of changes in the ratio of DCS ice water path and boundary layer water vapor amount with SST. Besides the cloud areal coverage, DCS cluster effective sizes also increase with precipitation. Furthermore, other cloud properties, such as cloud total water and ice water paths, increase with SST. These changes in DCS properties will produce a negative radiative feedback for the earth's climate system due to strong reflection of shortwave radiation by the DCS. These results significantly differ from some previous hypothesized dehydration scenarios for warmer climates, and have great potential in testing current cloud-system resolving models and convective parameterizations of general circulation models.

Lin, Bing↗

NASA NTRS2021

Limits on Runoff Episode Duration for Early Mars: Integrating Lake Hydrology and Climate Models

Fluvio-lacustrine features on the martian surface attest to a climate that was radically different in the past. Since climate models have difficulty sustaining a liquid hydrosphere at the surface, multiple cycles of runoff episodes may have characterized the ancient Mars climate. A fundamental question thus remains: what was the duration of these runoff-producing episodes? Here we use morphometric measurements from newly identified coupled lake systems, containing both an open- and a closed-basin lake (n=7). We combined hydrological balances with precipitation outputs from climate models, and found that breaching runoff episodes likely lasted 102−105yr; other episodes may have been shorter but could not be longer. Runoff episode durations are model-dependent and spatiallyvariable, and no27climate model scenario can satisfy a unique duration for all coupled systems. In the near future, these quantitative constraints on early Mars lake persistence may be tested through in situ observations from Perseverance rover. Plain Language Summary Ancient river and lake beds on the martian surface point to a climate that was radically different in the past, unlike the dry, cold desert that Mars is today. It experienced significant liquid water flowing across the surface (i.e., ‘runoff’) and hosted long-lived bodies of water (lakes and seas). However, scientists that generate models to simulate the ancient Mars climate have difficulty sustaining this proposed liquid water cycle at the surface. One possible hypothesis is that multiple cycles of individual liquid water episodes may have characterized the ancient martian climate (i.e. runoff episodes). A fundamental question thus remains: what was the duration of these individual runoff-producing episodes? Here we use an approach that takes advantage of unique martian lake system, ‘coupled’ lake systems, and their shapes. We combined these measurements with precipitation results from previous climate models, and found that runoff episodes likely lasted 100-10,000 years, requiring a global climate mechanism that generated repeated cycles of this duration. Ultimately, our results can be tested through observations made by NASA’s Perseverance rover, shedding light on the uninterrupted duration of surface water on Mars and its potential to host life in the past.

Gaia Stucky de Quay↗

NASA NTRS2002

A New Statistically based Autoconversion rate Parameterization for use in Large-Scale Models

The autoconversion rate is a key process for the formation of precipitation in warm clouds. In climate models, physical processes such as autoconversion rate, which are calculated from grid mean values, are biased, because they do not take subgrid variability into account. Recently, statistical cloud schemes have been introduced in large-scale models to account for partially cloud-covered grid boxes. However, these schemes do not include the in-cloud variability in their parameterizations. In this paper, a new statistically based autoconversion rate considering the in-cloud variability is introduced and tested in three cases using the Canadian Single Column Model (SCM) of the global climate model. The results show that the new autoconversion rate improves the model simulation, especially in terms of liquid water path in all three case studies.

Lin, Bing↗

NASA NTRS2018

The PMIP4 Contribution to CMIP6 - Part 1: Overview and Over-Arching Analysis Plan

This paper is the first of a series of four GMD (Geoscientific Model Development) papers on the PMIP4-CMIP6 (Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project - Phase 4 -- Coupled Model Intercomparison Project - Phase 6) experiments. Part 2 (Otto-Bliesner et al., 2017) gives details about the two PMIP4-CMIP6 interglacial experiments, Part 3 (Jungclaus et al., 2017) about the last millennium experiment, and Part 4 (Kageyama et al., 2017) about the Last Glacial Maximum experiment. The mid-Pliocene Warm Period experiment is part of the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) - Phase 2, detailed in Haywood et al. (2016). The goal of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) is to understand the response of the climate system to different climate forcings for documented climatic states very different from the present and historical climates. Through comparison with observations of the environmental impact of these climate changes, or with climate reconstructions based on physical, chemical, or biological records, PMIP also addresses the issue of how well state-of-the-art numerical models simulate climate change. Climate models are usually developed using the present and historical climates as references, but climate projections show that future climates will lie well outside these conditions. Palaeoclimates very different from these reference states therefore provide stringent tests for state-of-the-art models and a way to assess whether their sensitivity to forcings is compatible with palaeoclimatic evidence. Simulations of five different periods have been designed to address the objectives of the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6): the millennium prior to the industrial epoch (CMIP6 name: past1000); the mid-Holocene, 6000 years ago (midHolocene); the Last Glacial Maximum, 21,000 years ago (lgm); the Last Interglacial, 127,000 years ago (lig127k); and the mid-Pliocene Warm Period, 3.2 million years ago (midPliocene-eoi400). These climatic periods are well documented by palaeoclimatic and palaeoenvironmental records, with climate and environmental changes relevant for the study and projection of future climate changes. This paper describes the motivation for the choice of these periods and the design of the numerical experiments and database requests, with a focus on their novel features compared to the experiments performed in previous phases of PMIP and CMIP. It also outlines the analysis plan that takes advantage of the comparisons of the results across periods and across CMIP6 in collaboration with other MIPs.

climate↗

NASA NTRS1990

Parameterization of eddy sensible heat transports in a zonally averaged dynamic model of the atmosphere

A Charney-Branscome based parameterization has been tested as a way of representing the eddy sensible heat transports missing in a zonally averaged dynamic model (ZADM) of the atmosphere. The ZADM used is a zonally averaged version of a general circulation model (GCM). The parameterized transports in the ZADM are gaged against the corresponding fluxes explicitly simulated in the GCM, using the same zonally averaged boundary conditions in both models. The Charney-Branscome approach neglects stationary eddies and transient barotropic disturbances and relies on a set of simplifying assumptions, including the linear appoximation, to describe growing transient baroclinic eddies. Nevertheless, fairly satisfactory results are obtained when the parameterization is performed interactively with the model. Compared with noninteractive tests, a very efficient restoring feedback effect between the modeled zonal-mean climate and the parameterized meridional eddy transport is identified.

Genthon, Christophe↗

NASA NTRS1997

Mapping Surface Cover Parameters Using Aggregation Rules and Remotely Sensed Cover Classes

A coupled model, which combines the Biosphere-Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (BATS) with an advanced atmospheric boundary-layer model, was used to validate hypothetical aggregation rules for BATS-specific surface cover parameters. The model was initialized and tested with observations from the Anglo-Brazilian Amazonian Climate Observational Study and used to simulate surface fluxes for rain forest and pasture mixes at a site near Manaus in Brazil. The aggregation rules are shown to estimate parameters which give area-average surface fluxes similar to those calculated with explicit representation of forest and pasture patches for a range of meteorological and surface conditions relevant to this site, but the agreement deteriorates somewhat when there are large patch-to-patch differences in soil moisture. The aggregation rules, validated as above, were then applied to remotely sensed 1 km land cover data set to obtain grid-average values of BATS vegetation parameters for 2.8 deg x 2.8 deg and 1 deg x 1 deg grids within the conterminous United States. There are significant differences in key vegetation parameters (aerodynamic roughness length, albedo, leaf area index, and stomatal resistance) when aggregate parameters are compared to parameters for the single, dominant cover within the grid. However, the surface energy fluxes calculated by stand-alone BATS with the 2-year forcing, data from the International Satellite Land Surface Climatology Project (ISLSCP) CDROM were reasonably similar using aggregate-vegetation parameters and dominant-cover parameters, but there were some significant differences, particularly in the western USA.

Arain, Altaf M.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Lagrangian Assimilation of Satellite Data for Climate Studies in the Arctic

Under this grant we have developed and tested a new Lagrangian model of sea ice. A Lagrangian model keeps track of material parcels as they drift in the model domain. Besides providing a natural framework for the assimilation of Lagrangian data, it has other advantages: 1) a model that follows material elements is well suited for a medium such as sea ice in which an element retains its identity for a long period of time; 2) model cells can be added or dropped as needed, allowing the spatial resolution to be increased in areas of high variability or dense observations; 3) ice from particular regions, such as the marginal seas, can be marked and traced for a long time; and 4) slip lines in the ice motion are accommodated more naturally because there is no internal grid. Our work makes use of these strengths of the Lagrangian formulation.

Lindsay, Ronald W.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Ultraspectral Infrared Measurements from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) on the EOS Aqua Spacecraft

Aqua measures the Earth's water cycle, energy fluxes, vegetation and temperatures. The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) and Humidity Sounder for Brazil (HSB) were launched on the EOS Aqua spacecraft in May 2002. AIRS has had good radiometric and spectral sensitivity, stability, and accuracy and is suitable for climate studies. Temperature products compare well with radiosondes and models over the limited test range (|LAT| less than 40 degrees). Early trace gas products demonstrate the potential of AIRS. NASA is developing the next generation of hyperspectral IR imagers. JPL is ready to participate with US government agencies and US industry to transfer AIRS technology and science experience.

infrared↗

NASA NTRS2014

A Practical Philosophy of Complex Climate Modelling

We give an overview of the practice of developing and using complex climate models, as seen from experiences in a major climate modelling center and through participation in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP).We discuss the construction and calibration of models; their evaluation, especially through use of out-of-sample tests; and their exploitation in multi-model ensembles to identify biases and make predictions. We stress that adequacy or utility of climate models is best assessed via their skill against more naive predictions. The framework we use for making inferences about reality using simulations is naturally Bayesian (in an informal sense), and has many points of contact with more familiar examples of scientific epistemology. While the use of complex simulations in science is a development that changes much in how science is done in practice, we argue that the concepts being applied fit very much into traditional practices of the scientific method, albeit those more often associated with laboratory work.

complex simulation↗

NASA NTRS2012

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP): Protocols and Pilot Studies

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) is a major international effort linking the climate, crop, and economic modeling communities with cutting-edge information technology to produce improved crop and economic models and the next generation of climate impact projections for the agricultural sector. The goals of AgMIP are to improve substantially the characterization of world food security due to climate change and to enhance adaptation capacity in both developing and developed countries. Analyses of the agricultural impacts of climate variability and change require a transdisciplinary effort to consistently link state-of-the-art climate scenarios to crop and economic models. Crop model outputs are aggregated as inputs to regional and global economic models to determine regional vulnerabilities, changes in comparative advantage, price effects, and potential adaptation strategies in the agricultural sector. Climate, Crop Modeling, Economics, and Information Technology Team Protocols are presented to guide coordinated climate, crop modeling, economics, and information technology research activities around the world, along with AgMIP Cross-Cutting Themes that address uncertainty, aggregation and scaling, and the development of Representative Agricultural Pathways (RAPs) to enable testing of climate change adaptations in the context of other regional and global trends. The organization of research activities by geographic region and specific crops is described, along with project milestones. Pilot results demonstrate AgMIP's role in assessing climate impacts with explicit representation of uncertainties in climate scenarios and simulations using crop and economic models. An intercomparison of wheat model simulations near Obregón, Mexico reveals inter-model differences in yield sensitivity to [CO2] with model uncertainty holding approximately steady as concentrations rise, while uncertainty related to choice of crop model increases with rising temperatures. Wheat model simulations with midcentury climate scenarios project a slight decline in absolute yields that is more sensitive to selection of crop model than to global climate model, emissions scenario, or climate scenario downscaling method. A comparison of regional and national-scale economic simulations finds a large sensitivity of projected yield changes to the simulations' resolved scales. Finally, a global economic model intercomparison example demonstrates that improvements in the understanding of agriculture futures arise from integration of the range of uncertainty in crop, climate, and economic modeling results in multi-model assessments.

Rosenzweig, C.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Climate Models

Climate models is a very broad topic, so a single volume can only offer a small sampling of relevant research activities. This volume of 14 chapters includes descriptions of a variety of modeling studies for a variety of geographic regions by an international roster of authors. The climate research community generally uses the rubric climate models to refer to organized sets of computer instructions that produce simulations of climate evolution. The code is based on physical relationships that describe the shared variability of meteorological parameters such as temperature, humidity, precipitation rate, circulation, radiation fluxes, etc. Three-dimensional climate models are integrated over time in order to compute the temporal and spatial variations of these parameters. Model domains can be global or regional and the horizontal and vertical resolutions of the computational grid vary from model to model. Considering the entire climate system requires accounting for interactions between solar insolation, atmospheric, oceanic and continental processes, the latter including land hydrology and vegetation. Model simulations may concentrate on one or more of these components, but the most sophisticated models will estimate the mutual interactions of all of these environments. Advances in computer technology have prompted investments in more complex model configurations that consider more phenomena interactions than were possible with yesterday s computers. However, not every attempt to add to the computational layers is rewarded by better model performance. Extensive research is required to test and document any advantages gained by greater sophistication in model formulation. One purpose for publishing climate model research results is to present purported advances for evaluation by the scientific community.

Druyan, Leonard M.↗

NASA NTRS1997

Radiative Transfer Modeling

Our research efforts addressed theoretical work in radiative transfer which focused the following five major items: (1) Development of three dimensional radiative transfer methods; (2) Improvement to and maintenance of radiative transfer codes; (3) Creating new data-sets to define absorption by atmos.gases; (4) Model tests and validations with data from field experiments; and (5) Model application to study climatic impact of, aerosol/clouds.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS2022

The TRAPPIST-1 Habitable Atmosphere Intercomparison (THAI). I. Dry Cases—The Fellowship of the GCMs

With the commissioning of powerful, new-generation telescopes such as the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) and the ground-based Extremely Large Telescopes, the first characterization of a high molecular weight atmosphere around a temperate rocky exoplanet is imminent. Atmospheric simulations and synthetic observables of target exoplanets are essential to prepare and interpret these observations. Here we report the results of the first part of the TRAPPIST-1 Habitable Atmosphere Intercomparison (THAI) project, which compares 3D numerical simulations performed with four state-of-the-art global climate models (ExoCAM, LMD-Generic, ROCKE-3D, Unified Model) for the potentially habitable target TRAPPIST-1e. In this first part, we present the results of dry atmospheric simulations. These simulations serve as a benchmark to test how radiative transfer, subgrid-scale mixing (dry turbulence and convection), and large-scale dynamics impact the climate of TRAPPIST-1e and consequently the transit spectroscopy signature as seen by JWST. To first order, the four models give results in good agreement. The intermodel spread in the global mean surface temperature amounts to 7 K (6 K) for the N2-dominated (CO2-dominated) atmosphere. The radiative fluxes are also remarkably similar (intermodel variations less than 5%), from the surface (1 bar) up to atmospheric pressures ∼5 mbar. Moderate differences between the models appear in the atmospheric circulation pattern (winds) and the (stratospheric) thermal structure. These differences arise between the models from (1) large-scale dynamics, because TRAPPIST-1e lies at the tipping point between two different circulation regimes (fast and Rhines rotators) in which the models can be alternatively trapped, and (2) parameterizations used in the upper atmosphere such as numerical damping.

Martin Turbet↗

NASA NTRS2003

Snow and Ice Products from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer

Snow and sea ice products, derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument, flown on the Terra and Aqua satellites, are or will be available through the National Snow and Ice Data Center Distributed Active Archive Center (DAAC). The algorithms that produce the products are automated, thus providing a consistent global data set that is suitable for climate studies. The suite of MODIS snow products begins with a 500-m resolution, 2330-km swath snow-cover map that is then projected onto a sinusoidal grid to produce daily and 8-day composite tile products. The sequence proceeds to daily and 8-day composite climate-modeling grid (CMG) products at 0.05 resolution. A daily snow albedo product will be available in early 2003 as a beta test product. The sequence of sea ice products begins with a swath product at 1-km resolution that provides sea ice extent and ice-surface temperature (IST). The sea ice swath products are then mapped onto the Lambert azimuthal equal area or EASE-Grid projection to create a daily and 8-day composite sea ice tile product, also at 1 -km resolution. Climate-Modeling Grid (CMG) sea ice products in the EASE-Grid projection at 4-km resolution are planned for early 2003.

Hall, Dorothy K.↗

NASA NTRS1984

The Solar Constant, Climate, and Some Tests of the Storage Hypothesis

Activity related modulation of the solar constant can have practical consequences for climate only if storage is involved, as opposed to a detailed balance between sunspot blocking and facular reemission. Four empirical tests are considered that might distinguish between these opposing interpretations: monochromatic measurements of positive and negative flux; comparison of modelled and measured irradiance variations; the interpretation of secular trends in irradiance data; and the direct test of an anticipated signal in climate records of surface air temperature. The yet unanswered question of the role of faculae as possible reemitters of blocked radiation precludes a definitive answer, although other tests suggest their role to be minor, and that storage and an 11 year modulation is implicated. A crucial test is the behavior of the secular trend in irradiance in the declining years of the present activity cycle.

Eddy, J. A.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Performance of the Goddard Multiscale Modeling Framework with Goddard Ice Microphysical Schemes

The multiscale modeling framework (MMF), which replaces traditional cloud parameterizations with cloud-resolving models (CRMs) within a host atmospheric general circulation model (GCM), has become a new approach for climate modeling. The embedded CRMs make it possible to apply CRM-based cloud microphysics directly within a GCM. However, most such schemes have never been tested in a global environment for long-term climate simulation. The benefits of using an MMF to evaluate rigorously and improve microphysics schemes are here demonstrated. Four one-moment microphysical schemes are implemented into the Goddard MMF and their results validated against three CloudSat/CALIPSO cloud ice products and other satellite data. The new four-class (cloud ice, snow, graupel, and frozen drops/hail) ice scheme produces a better overall spatial distribution of cloud ice amount, total cloud fractions, net radiation, and total cloud radiative forcing than earlier three-class ice schemes, with biases within the observational uncertainties. Sensitivity experiments are conducted to examine the impact of recently upgraded microphysical processes on global hydrometeor distributions. Five processes dominate the global distributions of cloud ice and snow amount in long-term simulations: (1) allowing for ice supersaturation in the saturation adjustment, (2) three additional correction terms in the depositional growth of cloud ice to snow, (3) accounting for cloud ice fall speeds, (4) limiting cloud ice particle size, and (5) new size-mapping schemes for snow and graupel. Despite the cloud microphysics improvements, systematic errors associated with subgrid processes, cyclic lateral boundaries in the embedded CRMs, and momentum transport remain and will require future improvement.

snow↗