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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 127 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Assessing the drivers of Isoprene SOA: laboratory studies, field observations and modeling (Final Technical Report)

This report describes the research results and products stemming from the funding award DE-SC0018221. The main goals of this project were to develop a quantitative understanding of the factors driving secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formation from biogenic volatile organic compounds, namely isoprene and monoterpenes, using a combination of laboratory measurements, field data analysis, and modeling. Specifically, we aimed to: 1) develop an observationally constrained volatility distribution of trace gases produced from the oxidation of biogenic hydrocarbons that can explain the formation of SOA from in situ observations made during DOE ASR/ARM field campaigns such as HI-SCALE and BAECC 2) use new and existing (e.g. DOE ASR funded SOAFFEE experiments) laboratory chamber experiments to develop detailed parameterizations of isoprene-derived epxoy diol (IEPOX) reactive uptake, including product branching, product volatility, and solubility constants, as well as SOA formation generally from the formation of highly oxygenated organic molecules (HOM) formed from isoprene and monoterpene photo-oxidation that can be directly incorporated into models. 3) collaborate with PNNL modeling teams to incorporate new parameterizations into detailed box models, such as MOSAIC, and regional or Earth System models such as WRF.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Reimagine fire science for the anthropocene

Fire is an integral component of ecosystems globally and a tool that humans have harnessed for millennia. Altered fire regimes are a fundamental cause and consequence of global change, impacting people and the biophysical systems on which they depend. As part of the newly emerging Anthropocene, marked by human-caused climate change and radical changes to ecosystems, fire danger is increasing, and fires are having increasingly devastating impacts on human health, infrastructure, and ecosystem services. Increasing fire danger is a vexing problem that requires deep transdisciplinary, trans-sector, and inclusive partnerships to address. Here, we outline barriers and opportunities in the next generation of fire science and provide guidance for investment in future research. We synthesize insights needed to better address the long-standing challenges of innovation across disciplines to (i) promote coordinated research efforts; (ii) embrace different ways of knowing and knowledge generation; (iii) promote exploration of fundamental science; (iv) capitalize on the “firehose” of data for societal benefit; and (v) integrate human and natural systems into models across multiple scales. Fire science is thus at a critical transitional moment. We need to shift from observation and modeled representations of varying components of climate, people, vegetation, and fire to more integrative and predictive approaches that support pathways toward mitigating and adapting to our increasingly flammable world, including the utilization of fire for human safety and benefit. Only through overcoming institutional silos and accessing knowledge across diverse communities can we effectively undertake research that improves outcomes in our more fiery future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Crowdsourcing the Frontier: Advancing Hybrid Physics‐ML Climate Simulation via a $\$$50,000 Kaggle Competition

Subgrid machine-learning (machine learning [ML]) parameterizations have the potential to introduce a new generation of climate models that incorporate the effects of higher-resolution physics without incurring the prohibitive computational cost associated with more explicit physics-based simulations. However, important issues, ranging from online instability to inconsistent online performance, have limited their operational use for long-term climate projections. To more rapidly drive progress in solving these issues, domain scientists and ML researchers opened up the offline aspect of this problem to the broader ML and data science community with the release of ClimSim, a NeurIPS Data sets and Benchmarks publication, and an associated Kaggle competition. This paper reports on the downstream results of the Kaggle competition by coupling emulators inspired by the winning teams' architectures to an interactive climate model (including full cloud microphysics, a regime historically prone to online instability) and systematically evaluating their online performance. Our results demonstrate that online stability in the low-resolution real-geography setting is reproducible across multiple diverse architectures, which we consider a key milestone. All tested architectures exhibit strikingly similar offline and online biases, though their responses to architecture-agnostic design choices (e.g., expanding the list of input variables) can differ significantly. Multiple Kaggle-inspired architectures achieve state-of-the-art results on certain metrics such as zonal mean bias patterns and global Root Mean Squared Error, indicating that crowdsourcing the essence of the offline problem is one path to improving online performance in hybrid physics-AI climate simulation.

Environmental sciences↗
DOE OSTI2025

Advancing the Representation of Human Actions in Large‐Scale Hydrological Models: Challenges and Future Research Directions

Characterizing the impact of human actions on terrestrial water fluxes and storages at multi-basin, continental, and global scales has long been on the agenda of scientists engaged in climate science, hydrology, and water resources systems analysis. This need has resulted in a variety of modeling efforts focused on the representation of water infrastructure operations. Yet, the representation of human-water interactions in large-scale hydrological models is still relatively crude, fragmented across models, and often achieved at coarse resolutions (~10–100 km) that cannot capture local water management decisions. In this commentary, we argue that the concomitance of four drivers and innovations is poised to change the status quo: “hyper-resolution” hydrological models (~0.1–1 km), multi-sector modeling, satellite missions able to monitor the outcome of human actions, and machine learning are creating a fertile environment for human-water research to flourish. We then outline four challenges that chart future research in hydrological modeling: (a) creating hyper-resolution global data sets of water management practices, (b) improving the characterization of anthropogenic interventions on water quantity, stream temperature, and sediment transport, (c) improving model calibration and diagnostic evaluation, and (d) reducing the computational requirements associated with the successful exploration of these challenges. Overcoming them will require addressing modeling, computational, and data development needs that cut across the hydrology community, thereby requiring a major communal effort.

catchment hydrology↗
DOE OSTI2026

CMIP7 Data Request: atmosphere priorities and opportunities

This paper presents a comprehensive overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 7 (CMIP7) request for data unlocking key research avenues in atmospheric science and provides justification for the resources needed to produce this data. Topics within the CMIP7 Atmosphere Theme centre around processes and feedbacks in atmospheric science such as clouds, aerosols and atmospheric chemistry, atmospheric circulation, temperature variability and extremes, radiative forcings, and Earth system model evaluation. These topics are summarised in this paper as scientific “opportunities” which will be realised through CMIP7 experiments and Earth system model outputs. These opportunities were submitted by a thematic group of atmospheric science community representatives combined with an extended consultation process. The production of these variables will close key gaps and uncertainties identified during previous rounds of CMIP, and will be broadly used by scientific, policy, governmental, industry, and other communities that rely on climate model projections for research and decision making, including supporting the 7th Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report (AR7). As an author group, we also reflect on the process used to collate this data request and make recommendations to future CMIP governance on implementing a consultation on this scale in the future.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Climate Extremes and Variability Surrounding Chesapeake Bay: Past, Present, and Future

Measures of extreme climate variability around Chesapeake Bay have changed over the past century (1895–2014), resulting in the need to establish new baselines for understanding future change. Here, observed climate variability is compared with Coupled Model Intercomparison Project fifth assessment climate models to evaluate ensemble model skill in this region. Observed trends include annual and seasonal declines in the percentage of cold days. Similarly, increases in the annual and seasonal percentages of warm days occurred in all seasons of the North Chesapeake (>38.2°N) but were only significant in spring and summer in the South (<38.2°N) demonstrating regional differences even at local scales. Precipitation intensity increased over the past century. Models using emissions scenarios RCP4.5 and 8.5 project these trends will continue, though they have little skill in precipitation extremes. Pacific and Atlantic climate modes are generally more correlated with climate extremes than mean temperature and precipitation suggesting potential predictability in the synoptic patterns underlying the extremes. However, they also drive the need for time series at least 60-years long for establishing climate trends. This local analysis differs from regional, state level, and local 2.5° × 3.75° grid analyses, highlighting the importance of local climate assessments that consider topographic and regional weather patterns.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Impacts of phase state and water content on secondary organic aerosol formation and partitioning (Final Technical Report)

Secondary organic aerosols (SOA) account for a major fraction of particulate matter in the atmosphere, affecting climate, air quality, and public health. SOA formation and evolution are highly complex processes involving both chemical reactions and transport of molecules in air, at particle surfaces, and within particles. The state of the matter, or “phase state,” comprising SOA can vary from a liquid, over an amorphous semi-solid, to a glassy solid, depending on chemical composition, water content, relative humidity (RH), and temperature. The occurrence of glassy and amorphous semi-solid states can pose limitations on the rate of transport of molecules, affecting gas-particle interactions and challenging the treatment of SOA in atmospheric models. The objective of this project was to improve fundamental understanding of the interplay of the phase state of particles and water content on the evolution of SOA formation. We have developed a method to estimate the glass transition temperature (T g ) of organic compounds to predict the phase state and viscosity of SOA. This method has been applied to high resolution mass spectrometry data of various types of SOA, achieving a good agreement with viscosity measurements. In addition, the viscosity estimation method was implemented into a regional model CMAQ to simulate diel and seasonal variations of SOA phase state over the U.S. Applying kinetic multilayer modeling, we analyzed laboratory experiments and ARM field measurements (e.g., HI-SCALE) on kinetic limitations of amine uptake. We have also conducted numerical simulations to estimate equilibration timescales of SOA partitioning. Overall, we have evaluated the impacts of phase state and water content on SOA lifecycle that should contribute to reducing the uncertainty of SOA representation in regional climate and air quality predictions. The project has yielded 17 publications, in which DE-SC0018349 is explicitly acknowledged. Please see the list of publications as below, followed by summary of research activities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Multi-Scale Modeling of the Evolution of Structure and Properties in Materials for Nuclear Energy Applications [Slides]

Nuclear energy is an important component of an overall strategy to address climate change. Idaho National Laboratory (INL) is the U.S. Department of Energy’s primary facility for research and development in nuclear science and technology for energy generation, supporting the improvement and life extension of the existing reactor fleet and the development and licensing of new reactor designs. Computational modeling is an important component of these activities, particularly in the area of materials for nuclear applications, where experimental data can be very challenging and expensive to acquire, and where data is especially scarce for new reactor designs. INL has used multi-scale modeling – linking atomistic, mesoscale, and engineering scales – to improve the ability to predict the performance of materials for nuclear energy applications. In this talk, I will give an overview of the approach and tools used, and several examples of application, including performance of nuclear fuels, understanding radiation-driven formation of nanoscale void and gas bubble superlattices, and powder densification through electric field assisted sintering.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Multi-scale modeling of the evolution of structure and properties in materials for nuclear energy applications

Nuclear energy is an important component of an overall strategy to address climate change. Idaho National Laboratory (INL) is the U.S. Department of Energy’s primary facility for research and development in nuclear science and technology for energy generation, supporting the improvement and life extension of the existing reactor fleet and the development and licensing of new reactor designs. Computational modeling is an important component of these activities, particularly in the area of materials for nuclear applications, where experimental data can be very challenging and expensive to acquire, and where data is especially scarce for new reactor designs. INL has used multi-scale modeling – linking atomistic, mesoscale, and engineering scales – to improve the ability to predict the performance of materials for nuclear energy applications. These modeling efforts make extensive of MOOSE (Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment), a general-purpose open source finite element framework developed at INL. In this talk, I will give an overview of the approach and tools used, and several examples of application, including performance of nuclear fuels, understanding radiation-driven formation of nanoscale void and gas bubble superlattices, and powder densification through electric field assisted sintering.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Multi-scale modeling of the evolution of structure and properties in materials for nuclear energy applications

Nuclear energy is an important component of an overall strategy to address climate change. Idaho National Laboratory (INL) is the U.S. Department of Energy’s primary facility for research and development in nuclear science and technology for energy generation, supporting the improvement and life extension of the existing reactor fleet and the development and licensing of new reactor designs. Computational modeling is an important component of these activities, particularly in the area of materials for nuclear applications, where experimental data can be very challenging and expensive to acquire, and where data is especially scarce for new reactor designs. INL has used multi-scale modeling – linking atomistic, mesoscale, and engineering scales – to improve the ability to predict the performance of materials for nuclear energy applications. These modeling efforts make extensive of MOOSE (Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment), a general-purpose open source finite element framework developed at INL. In this talk, I will give an overview of the approach and tools used, and several examples of application, including performance of nuclear fuels, understanding radiation-driven formation of nanoscale void and gas bubble superlattices, and powder densification through electric field assisted sintering.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Holocene paleoclimate change in the western US: The importance of chronology in discerning patterns and drivers

We report sediment in lakes and meadows forms a powerful archive that can be used to reconstruct environmental change through time. Reconstructions of lake level, of chemical, biological, and hydrological conditions, and of surrounding vegetation provide detailed information about past climate conditions, both locally and regionally. Indeed, most of our current knowledge of centennial- to millennial-scale climate variability in the arid western United States, where information about past hydroclimate is particularly important, comes from such sediment-based reconstructions. The pressing need for robust, precise predictions of future conditions is a significant motivation for paleoclimate science, and current research questions frequently require Holocene reconstructions to be resolved at sub-centennial timescales. Increasingly, regional syntheses seek to identify synoptic-scale patterns similar to those defined from modern observations (seasonal, interannual, multi-decadal, etc.) or to compare with the output of climate model simulations. However, the age control on existing records, especially those more than about 20 years old, is often sufficient only for millennial-scale interpretation. Here we assess the age control for 84 published and unpublished records from lakes and meadows in the Great Basin, California, and desert southwest, and use Bayesian modeling to evaluate the 95% uncertainty ranges for the 42 best-dated records. In the Late Holocene, about half of the 42 records have <400-year mean uncertainty ranges; however, high-precision age control is especially critical for young records, used to develop an accurate understanding of a proxy’s response to known climate variations. In the Middle Holocene, records vary from 400 to >800-year mean uncertainty and records of the Early Holocene have 600- to >1400-year mean uncertainty ranges. We find that the largest control on modeled uncertainties is dating density, with at least 2 dates/kyr being optimal and suggest obtaining “range-finder” dates at the onset of a study to better predict the total number of dates needed for an adequate age model. Such a density avoids a commonly observed phenomenon of significant peaks in uncertainty arising in gaps between age control points. Analysis of the uncertainties associated with proxy shifts reveal that more than half are >400 years. Although such large uncertainties currently prevent sub-centennial interpretations in most cases, increased dating density, strategic use of limited funds (including budgeting for a 2 date/kyr minimum at the proposal stage), construction of age-depth models with Bayesian methods, and critical evaluation of chronological uncertainty will shed light on past climate variability at finer timescales, enhancing our understanding of global and regional drivers of western U.S. climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

A 30-yr high-resolution weather research and forecasting model downscaling data over California and Nevada

This dataset presents a 30-year high resolution meteorological dataset obtained using the WRF model (Advanced version Research WRF version 4.4). We used WRF and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis v5 as initial and boundary conditions to generate gridded meteorological variables. A large number of surface weather stations was used for model validation. A multi-physics analysis was first developed to identify a good physics suite extended from 6 November 00 UTC to 10 November 23 UTC, 2018, which included the Camp Fire in northern California. Based on the best physics suite, the downscaling dataset extends from 1 December to 28 February, 1990–2021 and the horizontal domain has 1.5 km grid spacing covering the entire states of California and Nevada in the United States. Comparisons between hourly surface observations and WRF simulations of air temperature, relative humidity and wind speeds show mean absolute errors on the order of (1.6-2.0 C), (10 %) and 1.2–1.5 m s -1 , respectively.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Investigating Resiliency of Transportation Network under Targeted and Potential Climate Change Disruptions

Ensuring robustness and resilience in intermodal transportation systems is essential for the continuity and reliability of global logistics. These systems are vulnerable to various disruptions, including natural disasters and technical failures. Despite significant research on freight transportation resilience, investigating the robustness of the system after targeted and climate-change-driven disruption remains a crucial challenge. Drawing on network science methodologies, this study models the interdependencies within the rail and water transport networks and simulates different disruption scenarios to evaluate system responses. Here, we use the data from the U.S. Department of Energy Volpe Center for network topology and tonnage projections. The proposed framework quantifies deliberate, stochastic, and climate-driven infrastructure failure, using higher resolution downscaled multiple Earth System Models’ simulations from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase version 6. We show that the disruptions of a few nodes could have a larger impact on the total tonnage of freight transport than on network topology. For example, the removal of targeted 20 nodes can bring the total tonnage carrying capacity to 30% with about 75% of the rail freight network intact. This research advances the theoretical understanding of transportation resilience and provides practical applications for infrastructure managers and policymakers. By implementing these strategies, stakeholders and policymakers can better prepare for and respond to unexpected disruptions, ensuring sustained operational efficiency in transportation networks.

Climate Change Disruptions↗
DOE OSTI2025

Navigating the Noise: Bringing Clarity to ML Parameterization Design With O $\boldsymbol{\mathcal{O}}$(100) Ensembles

Abstract Machine‐learning (ML) parameterizations of subgrid processes (here of turbulence, convection, and radiation) may one day replace conventional parameterizations by emulating high‐resolution physics without the cost of explicit simulation. However, uncertainty about the relationship between offline and online performance (i.e., when integrated with a large‐scale general circulation model) hinders their development. Much of this uncertainty stems from limited sampling of the noisy, emergent effects of upstream ML design decisions on downstream online hybrid simulation. Our work rectifies the sampling issue via the construction of a semi‐automated, end‐to‐end pipeline for size ensembles of hybrid simulations, revealing important nuances in how systematic reductions in offline error manifest in changes to online error and online stability. For example, removing dropout and switching from a Mean Squared Error to a Mean Absolute Error loss both reduce offline error, but they have opposite effects on online error and online stability. Other design decisions, like incorporating memory, converting moisture input from specific humidity to relative humidity, using batch normalization, and training on multiple climates do not come with any such compromises. Finally, we show that ensemble sizes of may be necessary to reliably detect causally relevant differences online. By enabling rapid online experimentation at scale, we can empirically settle debates regarding subgrid ML parameterization design that would have otherwise remained unresolved in the noise.

Lin, Jerry [Department of Earth System Sciences Un↗
DOE OSTI2024

On the predictability of turbulent fluxes from land: PLUMBER2 MIP experimental description and preliminary results

Accurate representation of the turbulent exchange of carbon, water, and heat between the land surface and the atmosphere is critical for modelling global energy, water, and carbon cycles in both future climate projections and weather forecasts. Evaluation of models' ability to do this is performed in a wide range of simulation environments, often without explicit consideration of the degree of observational constraint or uncertainty and typically without quantification of benchmark performance expectations. We describe a Model Intercomparison Project (MIP) that attempts to resolve these shortcomings, comparing the surface turbulent heat flux predictions of around 20 different land models provided with in situ meteorological forcing evaluated with measured surface fluxes using quality-controlled data from 170 eddy-covariance-based flux tower sites. Predictions from seven out-of-sample empirical models are used to quantify the information available to land models in their forcing data and so the potential for land model performance improvement. Sites with unusual behaviour, complicated processes, poor data quality, or uncommon flux magnitude are more difficult to predict for both mechanistic and empirical models, providing a means of fairer assessment of land model performance. When examining observational uncertainty, model performance does not appear to improve in low-turbulence periods or with energy-balance-corrected flux tower data, and indeed some results raise questions about whether the energy balance correction process itself is appropriate. In all cases the results are broadly consistent, with simple out-of-sample empirical models, including linear regression, comfortably outperforming mechanistic land models. In all but two cases, latent heat flux and net ecosystem exchange of CO 2 are better predicted by land models than sensible heat flux, despite it seeming to have fewer physical controlling processes. Land models that are implemented in Earth system models also appear to perform notably better than stand-alone ecosystem (including demographic) models, at least in terms of the fluxes examined here. The approach we outline enables isolation of the locations and conditions under which model developers can know that a land model can improve, allowing information pathways and discrete parameterisations in models to be identified and targeted for future model development.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Using nuclear observations to improve climate research and GHG emission estimates – the NuClim project

Project NuClim (Nuclear observations to improve Climate research and GHG emission estimates) aims to use high-quality measurements of atmospheric radon activity concentration and ambient radioactivity to advance climate science and improve radiation protection and nuclear surveillance capabilities. It is supported by new metrological capabilities developed in the EMPIR project 19ENV01 traceRadon. This work reviews the scientific objectives of project NuClim in terms of both climate science and radiological protection, and provides an overview of the NuClim field campaign and the various nuclear measurements being implemented within the scope of the project.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Expanding Collaborative Capacity to Address Climate Resiliency in the Great Lakes Region

U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Office of Science, Award DE-SC0023215, Expanding Collaborative Capacity to Address Climate Resiliency in the Great Lakes Region, supported capacity and partnership building between researchers at Central Michigan University (CMU) and scientists at DOE laboratories. The work involved identifying potential collaborations both internal to CMU and between CMU researchers and DOE staff, developing collaborative research proposals, and partnering on pilot-scale research projects focused on enhancing resilience of Great Lakes communities, ecosystems, and infrastructure to global change and environmental stressors. DOE funds supported travel, time to develop collaborations, investigate new research pathways, and draft grant proposals, and a loan of DOE equipment to collect pilot data in support of future work. The project achieved its goal of strengthening research collaborations between interdisciplinary researchers at CMU and establishing new collaborations and partnerships between CMU and DOE scientists. These collaborations resulted in 5 pre-applications and 4 full applications for funding to DOE BER Funding Opportunities, a successfully funded DOE BER award (DE-SC0025260), a new pilot project that leveraged DOE resources (AquaBOT) to improve understanding of water quality conditions in Michigan rivers, and two presentations of preliminary results at national scientific conferences. This project’s outcomes will benefit the Great Lakes Region via new lines of collaborative research focused on improving the resilience of Michigan communities, ecosystems, and infrastructure.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Unified Data Infrastructure for Biological and Environmental Research: A Report from the BER Advisory Committee

The Biological and Environmental Research (BER) program within the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Science supports large-scale data generation efforts across its two divisions: Biological Systems Science and Earth and Environmental Systems Sciences. These efforts include user facilities in atmospheric radiation measurements, genomics, metabolomics, proteomics, compute, and imaging. In addition, BER supports the development of plant-based fuels; research in biosystems design, environmental microbiomes, and atmospheric systems; energy flux monitoring; climate-based ecosystem experiments; pathogen biopreparedness; and modeling of climate, urban interfaces, and interactions between people and energy resources. For data access, BER supports community data services at its user facilities, along with specialized data initiatives for Earth and environmental science, climate modeling, genomic and microbial analysis, and multisector dynamics modeling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗