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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2026

Final report: Insights from ARM observations into aerosol processing and transport by extratropical cyclones and aerosol effects on cyclone clouds

This project advanced understanding of aerosol–cloud interactions in extratropical cyclones using observations from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Eastern North Atlantic (ENA) observatory and ACE-ENA field campaigns, along with satellite datasets and numerical modeling. We have quantified the susceptibility of frontal clouds to aerosols, showing that this susceptibility is similar to that in non-frontal clouds despite substantial (factor 2) differences in droplet concentrations between these cloud types, and also significant differences in cloud albedo. A key finding was that Aitken-mode (here, 60-100nm diameter) aerosols play a disproportionately important role in droplet activation in frontal clouds, and concentrations of these particles are frequently strongly biased in climate models. Activation of aerosols depends strongly on updraft speeds, and via collaboration with Argonne National Laboratory we contributed to quantifying these better with the ARM radar wind profiler at the ENA site. Our studies in the North Atlantic have analogs in the Southern Ocean, and to draw these out we examined data from the MARCUS and SOCRATES field campaigns. We identified new particle formation within extratropical cyclones as a potentially important source of cloud condensation nuclei in these pristine marine environments. By combining ARM observations with perturbed parameter ensemble simulations, we demonstrated that surface observations can effectively constrain aerosol–cloud adjustments and reduce uncertainty in simulated cloud liquid water path responses by approximately 15%, yielding stronger constraints on historical aerosol cooling effects. The work further established precipitation processes as a dominant control on aerosol–cloud interactions and Earth system predictability.

Gordon, Hamish [Department of Chemical Engineering↗
DOE OSTI2025

The diurnal susceptibility of subtropical clouds to aerosols

The diurnal susceptibility of clouds and their radiative properties to aerosols is examined during their Lagrangian transition from subtropical stratocumulus to shallow cumulus regimes. Using large-eddy simulations, we analyze the six-day evolution of an air mass along a 3800 km observed trajectory from the coast of Peru toward the equator. Pristine and polluted scenarios are simulated with forcing imposed from weather reanalysis. The polluted scenario exhibits stronger diurnal variations in cloud water, cloud fraction, and albedo, with enhanced nighttime entrainment and suppressed precipitation. The overall response of cloud properties and outgoing shortwave radiation to droplet number concentration follows a distinct diurnal pattern: strong positive cloud adjustments dominate at night and in the morning, while weak negative adjustments prevail in the afternoon. This cycle is driven by the competition between precipitation suppression, which enhances cloud water and coverage, and entrainment drying, which depletes them. In polluted conditions, enhanced entrainment leads to a deeper and more decoupled boundary layer that cannot be sustained by surface fluxes in the afternoon, resulting in negative cloud adjustments. The enhanced entrainment rate under polluted conditions is caused by the reduced sedimentation of cloud and precipitation water from the entrainment zone. While the Twomey effect dominates the diurnal average albedo response, the diurnal variation in the competing cloud adjustments lead to a near-neutral net susceptibility in the afternoon, highlighting the critical role of diurnally varying processes in aerosol-cloud interactions.

Geosciences↗
DOE OSTI2025

Marine and continental stratocumulus cloud microphysical properties obtained from routine ARM Cimel sunphotometer observations

This study investigates marine and continental stratocumulus (Sc) cloud properties obtained from an automated implementation of a multispectral photometer retrieval. Photometer methods simultaneously retrieve cloud optical depth (τ) and cloud droplet effective radius (r e ), with estimates for liquid water path (LWP) calculated on the availability of those quantities. These applied methods evaluate retrieved cloud properties for Sc identified during a recent 6 year period over the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program sites in Oklahoma, USA (SGP) and in the Azores, Portugal (ENA). Modest agreement in key quantity retrievals is found between the routine photometer products and multisensor collocated profiling references. Cumulative breakdowns contingent on cloud thickness indicate increases in all retrieved quantities in thicker clouds, with larger discrepancies in the relative performance between the retrievals collected in the presence of drizzle. Under continental cloud conditions, the clouds of a similar thickness and r e to those sampled under marine conditions report a factor of 1.5 larger τ and LWP. An r 2 ≅0.65 is found between photometer τ retrievals and shadowband radiometer measurements, with photometer retrievals reporting a high (relative) bias. The τ intercomparisons indicate that variability between retrievals is a factor of three larger than errors reported from individual retrieval input perturbation tests. Photometer r e retrievals suggest a low r 2 (< 0.1) having a standard deviation ≅ 3 µm when compared to ARM baseline multi-sensor radar/radiometer references (accounting for offsets in the cloud droplet number concentration assumptions of the latter). However, photometer LWP calculations remain relatively unbiased in non-drizzling conditions, with errors O (50 g m −2 ) and r 2 ≅0.5 to collocated radiometer and interferometer references. Additional sensitivity tests for island influences on marine Sc properties suggest that while island-influenced winds may promote larger cloud LWP or thickness, the influence could be within retrieval method uncertainty and/or collocated instrument variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Deep-learning-driven simulations of boundary layer clouds over the Southern Great Plains

Abstract. Based on long-term observations at the Southern Great Plains site by the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program for training and validation, a deep-learning model is developed to simulate the daytime evolution of boundary layer clouds (BLCs) from the perspective of land–atmosphere coupling. The model takes ARM measurements (including early-morning soundings and diurnally varying surface meteorological conditions and heat fluxes) as inputs and predicts hourly estimates (including cloud occurrence, the positions of cloud boundaries, and the vertical profile of the cloud fraction) as outputs. The deep-learning model offers good agreement with the observed cloud fields, especially in the accuracy with which cloud occurrence and base height are reproduced. When the inputs are substituted by reanalysis data from ERA5 and MERRA-2, the outputs of the deep-learning model provide a better agreement with observation than the cloud fields extracted from ERA5 and MERRA-2 themselves. Thus, the deep-learning model shows great potential to serve as a diagnostic tool for the performance of physics-based models in simulating stratiform and cumulus clouds. By quantifying biases in clouds and attributing them to the simulated atmospheric state variables versus the model-parameterized cloud processes, this observation-based deep-learning model may offer insights into the directions needed to improve the simulation of BLCs in physics-based models for weather forecasting and climate prediction.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluation of Autoconversion Representation in E3SMv2 Using an Ensemble of Large-Eddy Simulations of Low-Level Warm Clouds

In numerical atmospheric models that treat cloud and rain droplet populations as separate condensate categories, precipitation initiation in warm clouds is often represented by an autoconversion rate (Au), which is the rate of formation of new rain droplets through the collisions of cloud droplets. Being a function of the cloud droplet size distribution (DSD), the local Au is commonly parameterized as a function of DSD moments: cloud droplet number (n c ) and mass (q c ) concentrations. When applied in a large-scale model, the grid-mean Au must also include a correction, or enhancement factor, to account for the horizontal variability of the cloud properties across the model grid. In this study, we evaluate the Au representation in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 (E3SMv2) climate model using large-eddy simulations (LES), which explicitly resolve cloud droplet spectra, and therefore the local Au, as well as its spatial variability. The analysis of an ensemble of warm low-level cloud cases shows that the E3SMv2 formulation represents the Au reasonably well compared to the horizontally averaged explicitly computed rate from LES. The agreement, however, comes from a combination of an underestimated E3SM-tuned local Au rate and an overestimated subgrid cloud variability enhancement factor. The latter bias is traced to neglecting the horizontal variability of n c and its co-variability with q c in parameterizing the grid-mean Au.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Exposing and Reducing Biases of Simulating Mixed-Phase Clouds in the Convection-Permitting E3SM Atmosphere Model: Lessons From an Arctic Cold-Air Outbreak

Mixed-phase clouds modulate the water and energy cycles of high-latitude regions, yet their liquid-ice phase partitioning has long been poorly simulated in climate models. Here, simulations of Arctic mixed-phase clouds by the Simple Cloud-Resolving E3SM Atmosphere Model (SCREAM) are assessed against large-eddy simulations, satellite data, and ground-based observations during the Cold-Air Outbreaks in the Marine Boundary Layer Experiment field campaign. SCREAM simulates nearly completely frozen clouds, which is attributed largely to the unreasonably strong Wegener–Bergeron–Findeisen (WBF) process that converts liquid to ice excessively and partly to the early over-abundant ice production at cold temperatures from a temperature-deterministic deposition ice nucleation scheme. Assuming no subgrid variation for the WBF process in the original formulation particularly conflicts with the instantaneous saturation adjustment assumption in the condensation scheme that assumes subgrid variability, leading to exaggerated WBF process rates. A proposed simple physically-based improvement on the treatment of subgrid cloud overlap substantially increases supercooled liquid water content and notably improves cloud-top phase partitioning, aligning better with observations. Improvement of supercooled liquid water content also converges with increasing horizontal resolution. The deposition ice nucleation scheme is found responsible for a falsely-produced ice cloud aloft that is not observed, biasing the simulated cloud radiative effects and top-of-atmosphere radiative fluxes. This study identifies key deficiencies in cloud parameterizations that continue to challenge convection-permitting models.

Geosciences↗
DOE OSTI2026

The role of local shipping emissions in aerosol-cloud interactions in the central Arctic

Arctic shipping is projected to increase as sea ice retreats, yet the impact of modern low-sulfur ship emissions on Arctic clouds and radiation remain poorly constrained. We use year-long in situ observations from the MOSAiC expedition to characterize ship-aerosol-cloud interactions for an icebreaker burning ultra-low sulfur fuel (0.1% mass per mass). Exhaust plumes were found to be strongly enriched in Aitken-mode particles, organic aerosol, and black carbon, but showed no detectable enhancement in particulate sulfate. Despite reduced hygroscopicity relative to ambient aerosols, ship emissions substantially increased local cloud condensation nuclei concentrations. A droplet activation parameterization was applied to quantify responses in cloud droplet number concentration ( N d ) to ship-induced perturbations in low-level Arctic clouds. In winter, abundant background accumulation-mode particles from Arctic haze supplied nearly all cloud droplets, while additional particles from ship emissions had little impact on N d . In contrast, during summer months, when unperturbed background aerosol concentrations are low, ship emissions nearly doubled N d compared to average background conditions and increased N d by a factor of five compared to very clean background conditions (25th percentile of background aerosol number concentrations). Longwave radiative transfer simulations for typical conditions of summer Arctic low-level clouds/fog suggest that these ship-induced increases in N d locally (i.e. <100 km downwind) lead to enhanced net surface longwave fluxes and consequent warming, primarily for optically thin clouds (liquid water path (LWP) ⩽ 30 g·m −2 ). For LWP = 10 g · m −2 , ship emissions lead to an increase of 1 W · m −2 in cloud longwave forcing at the surface compared to average unperturbed conditions (+7% relative increase), and up to 4 W · m −2 when compared to very clean background conditions (+22% relative increase). Even ultra-low sulfur fuel emissions can therefore locally and episodically modify Arctic cloud microphysics and radiative properties, especially during summer, implying that future increases in Arctic shipping could have non-negligible regional climate impacts.

Arctic↗
DOE OSTI2024

Peering into cloud physics using ultra-fine resolution radar and lidar systems

Cloud microphysical processes, such as droplet activation, condensational growth, and collisional growth, play a central role in the evolution of clouds and precipitation. Accurate representations of these processes in numerical models are challenging partially due to incomplete understanding of them at the process-level arising from limited systematic observations. Most surface-based active remote sensors, including today’s operational cloud radars and lidars, have a resolution on the order of tens of meters. This resolution is insufficient to resolve cloud microphysical processes that manifest at finer (meter and sub-meter) scales. A new set of ultra-high-resolution ground-based radar and lidar systems have been developed to address this observational gap. The newly developed 94-GHz cloud radar has a range resolution down to 2.8 m, or a factor of 10 finer than typical radars, using a large bandwidth and quadratic phase coding techniques. The lidar has a range resolution down to 10 cm, or a factor of 100 finer than typical lidars, using a time-gated time-correlated single photon counting technique. Such high-resolution observations were previously only achievable through in situ aircraft measurements. Even then, aircraft measurements do not permit continuous long-term cloud observation as is possible with ground-based remote sensing instruments. In this study, the first-light cloud observations from the new radar and lidar systems are shown to reveal detailed cloud structures that conventional sensors could only perceive in a bulk sense, thus providing new avenues to investigate cloud microphysical processes and their impact on weather and climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

ARM shortwave spectrometers to study the clear-cloud transition zone and mixing processes

The proposed research is a collaborative effort between NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center and the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. While the NASA team focused on analyzing ground-based hyper-spectral radiance observations to understand cloud edge properties and their connection to mixing processes, the Hebrew University team tackled the problem through cloud modeling activities. By approximating the shortwave spectra in the cloud-clear transition zone as a linear combination of purely clear and purely cloudy spectra we can characterize the variations of cloud optical thickness and cloud droplet effective radius in the transition zone. When applying this method to the measurements of a ground-based shortwave spectroradiometer at the ARM’s SGP site, representing continental conditions, and MAGIC field campaign between Log Angeles, California and Honolulu, Hawaii, representing maritime scenarios, we found that cloud optical depth consistently decreases in both cases, but droplet size decreases much more substantially for the continental regime, suggesting different mixing processes for the continental and maritime conditions. The investigation and measurements of radiation clouds were coupled with a unique cloud modeling. A novel spectral bin microphysics was developed and implemented to the System of Atmospheric Modeling (SAM). In order to resolve cloud transition zones with high spatial gradients of microphysical variables a unique high resolution (10 m) was used in simulations. The model calculates droplet size distributions in each grid point. The model output was transferred to the NASA/GSFC team for utilization in radiative calculations and testing of both radiative algorithm and model representation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Organisation of Diverse Mechanisms of Secondary Ice Production among Basic Convective and Stratiform Cloud-types

This 3-year DoE-funded joint project had the over-arching aim of understanding how ice is initiated in clouds of various types. Focus was given to processes of fragmentation of pre-existing ice, which can occur in positive feedback loops (‘ice multiplication’). A basic question to address was which fragmentation processes prevail in which basic cloud-types. The approach was to use cloud models and field observations, while pioneering our own lab observations of ice initiation to break the deadlock from the past lack of lab observations. Historically, the tendency of the cloud physics community to avoid doing lab observations has allowed a vast gap in knowledge about ice initiation to persist for decades. During the first part of the project, new formulations were created to treat two overlooked types of fragmentation of ice. First, sublimational breakup of ice was treated based on a theoretical formula that we fitted to a pooled dataset of lab observations published previously in the literature. Second, a new mode of fragmentation of freezing raindrops was treated, which involves a supercooled drop being hit by a more massive ice particle. Some of the secondary droplets from the impact freeze. This work was done at Manchester University by Co-I Connolly. Then during the second part, both formulations were implemented in our ‘aerosol-cloud model’ (AC). AC has a hybrid bin/bulk microphysics scheme, and now represents four processes of SIP. The accuracy of AC was evaluated for four cases typifying four basic cloud-types: slightly cold-based stratiform cloud and cold-, warm- and very warm-based convective clouds. We discovered that the warmth of cloud-base, especially in the tropics, promotes SIP processes of raindrop-freezing fragmentation and rime-splintering, and surprisingly, sublimational breakup too. It was found that breakup in ice-ice collisions is ubiquitous. Finally, a portable laboratory chamber was constructed at Lund and deployed in northern Sweden to observe breakup in graupel-snow collisions outdoors. This was seen to be even more prolific than treated in our 2018 formulation. Papers describing results are either published or soon to be published.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Features of mid- and high-latitude low-level clouds and their relation to strong aerosol effects in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 (E3SMv2)

The E3SMv2 model, like various other global models that include representations of aerosol–cloud interactions, uses an empirically chosen lower bound on the simulated in-cloud cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC) to help constrain the effective radiative forcing of anthropogenic aerosols, ERFaer. This study identifies where ultra-low CDNCs (i.e., concentrations lower than 10 cm−3) occur in the stratiform and shallow convective clouds simulated by E3SMv2 and which of the occurrences have the strongest impact on ERF aer . Process-level analyses are presented to reveal characteristics of the cloud droplet formation and removal processes associated with impactful ultra-low CDNCs. Simulations performed with present-day emissions show that ultra-low CDNCs are most frequently found over the mid- and high-latitude oceans in both hemispheres, while the occurrences are also frequent in polluted continental regions despite the high aerosol concentrations. Ultra-low CDNCs with the largest impacts on the simulated regional and global mean ERF aer are found in the lower troposphere in the Northern Hemisphere middle and high latitudes. These cases are typically associated with large cloud fractions, strong water vapor condensation, weak turbulence, and lack of cloud droplet nucleation from aerosol activation. Under such atmospheric conditions, boosting aerosol activation and enhancing turbulent mixing of cloud droplet number can increase the simulated CDNCs, although the magnitude of the global mean ERF aer increases undesirably. The reason for this model behavior is discussed. Overall, our study suggests that mid- and high-latitude low-level stratus occurring under weak turbulence is a cloud regime worth further investigating for the purpose of identifying and addressing the root causes of ultra-low CDNCs and strong ERF aer in E3SM.

Aerosol-Cloud Interaction↗
DOE OSTI2024

EPCAPE-PT-LANL Measurements: Cloud Condensation Nuclei Counter

Coastal cities offer a unique environment for studying aerosol-cloud interactions and the effects of urban emissions on cloud properties. As part of the Eastern Pacific Cloud Aerosol Precipitation Experiment (EPCAPE), the Partitioning Thrust by Los Alamos National Laboratory (EPCAPE-PT-LANL) was conducted. Our campaign focused on measuring the optical and chemical properties of aerosols and their interactions within marine stratocumulus clouds in La Jolla, California. EPCAPE-PT-LANL enhances the primary goals of EPCAPE through innovative observations of vapor-phase transitions between aerosols and cloud droplets, the impact of black carbon on aerosol-cloud dynamics, and the effects of cloud processing on aerosol optical properties. Instrument: Cloud Condensation Nuclei Counter, single column (Droplet Measurements Technology) Files: data_10sec_CCNc.csv, data_10min_CCNc.csv Header: - SuperSaturation[unitless]: The level of supersaturation, expressed as a unitless percentage, at which cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) activity is measured. - NumberConcentration[/cm3]: Number concentration of particles acting as CCN at the baseline supersaturation level, measured in particles per cubic centimeter. - NumberConcentration_SS2[/cm3]: Number concentration of particles acting as CCN at a supersaturation level of 0.2%, measured in particles per cubic centimeter. - NumberConcentration_SS4[/cm3]: Number concentration of particles acting as CCN at a supersaturation level of 0.4%, measured in particles per cubic centimeter. - QualityControl_Flag[bool]: A boolean flag indicating whether the data point passed quality control checks. - CVI_Flag[bool]: A boolean flag indicating whether the Counterflow Virtual Impactor (CVI) was active (true) or inactive (false) during the measurement.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

The correlation between Arctic sea ice, cloud phase and radiation using A-Train satellites

Abstract. Climate warming has a stronger impact on Arctic climate and sea ice cover (SIC) decline than previously thought. Better understanding and characterization of the relationship between sea ice and clouds and the implications for surface radiation is key to improving our confidence in Arctic climate projections. Here we analyze the relationship between sea ice, cloud phase and surface radiation over the Arctic, defined as north of 60° N, using active- and passive-sensor satellite observations from three different datasets. We find that all datasets agree on the climatology of and seasonal variability in total and liquid-bearing (liquid and mixed-phase) cloud covers. Similarly, our results show a robust relationship between decreased SIC and increased liquid-bearing clouds in the lowest levels (below 3 km) for all seasons (strongest in winter) but summer, while increased SIC and ice clouds are positively correlated in two of the three datasets. A refined map correlation analysis indicates that the relationship between SIC and liquid-bearing clouds can change sign over the Bering, Barents and Laptev seas, likely because of intrusions of warm air from low latitudes during winter and spring. Finally, the increase in liquid clouds resulting from decreasing SIC is associated with enhanced radiative cooling at the surface. Our findings indicate that the newly formed liquid clouds reflect more shortwave (SW) radiation back to space compared to the surface, generating a cooling effect of the surface, while their downward longwave (LW) radiation is similar to the upward LW surface emission, which has a negligible radiative impact on the surface. This overall cooling effect should contribute to dampening future Arctic surface warming as SIC continues to decline.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Dependence of Cloud Macrophysical Properties and Phase Distributions on Environmental Conditions Over the North Atlantic and Southern Ocean: Results From COMBLE and MARCUS

The accurate representation of Cold Air Outbreaks (CAOs) and affiliated mixed-phase boundary layer (BL) clouds in models is challenging. How BL cloud properties evolve during CAOs and their dependence on meteorological conditions is not well understood but is important for the simulation of Earth's energy budgets. Here the properties of polar BL clouds over the North Atlantic (NA) and Southern Ocean (SO) are compared using observations from the Measurements of Aerosol Radiation and CloUds over the SO (MARCUS) and CAOs in the Marine BL Experiment (COMBLE) conducted over the NA. MARCUS observations show a stronger BL inversion than COMBLE, with a higher mean EIS (estimated inversion strength)/LTS (lower tropospheric stability) of -0.03 K/13 K compared to COMBLE’s -3.2 K/9.3 K. 39% of CAOs observed during COMBLE were intense with M > 5 K, while MARCUS only had 1.3%. 78%/72% of clouds sampled in CAOs during COMBLE/MARCUS had cloud top heights <4 km. The mean BL cloud top height was over 400 m higher, and the BL was over 500 m deeper for M of 10 K compared to 0 K for both regions. MARCUS observed a 27% moister BL structure than COMBLE when M > 5 K due to stronger BL inversion trapping more moisture within the BL. Under the same LTS, EIS, and M conditions, MARCUS observed a 12% drier BL structure, and clouds were 46% more turbulent than COMBLE. During CAOs, 54% of single-layer BL clouds sampled during MARCUS had liquid-dominated bases compared to 39% during COMBLE.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluation of Marine Boundary Layer Clouds Over the Northeast Pacific During the CSET Campaign in E3SM Version 2

It is still challenging to reproduce marine boundary layer (MBL) clouds well in large-scale models despite their importance to the Earth's radiation budget and hydrological cycle. This study evaluates representation of the MBL and clouds in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) version 2. This study compares the E3SM simulation results with remote sensing and reanalysis data during the Cloud System Evolution in the Trades (CSET) field campaign to better understand the stratocumulus-to-cumulus cloud transition (SCT) over the northeast Pacific. E3SM results are extracted along the CSET Lagrangian trajectories. The comparison shows that the E3SM simulation applying horizontal wind nudging performs well in reproducing thermodynamic variables of the MBL and evolution trends of cloud variables along the trajectories. However, substantial overestimations of aerosol and cloud drop number (N d ) are observed, which is explained as an issue with version 2 of the model. Cloud fraction (CF) does decrease from the Californian coast to Hawaii in the E3SM simulation, but most CF values indicate either an overcast or almost clear sky, which differs from satellite and reanalysis data. The effect of N d overestimation on CF evolution is assessed via prescribed-N d simulations. Those simulations with N d modifications show negligible CF changes. A comparison of estimated inversion strength (EIS) also shows that the simulated EIS values are similar to those of reanalysis data. Our study suggests that cloud macrophysics and boundary layer processes are more important in improving the simulation to capture the SCT than refining the model's thermodynamics or cloud microphysics.

Choi, Kyoung Ock [Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA↗
DOE OSTI2025

Increasing wintertime cloud opacity increases surface longwave radiation at a long-term Arctic observatory

As the Arctic warms, winter clouds are known and expected to change. Yet the extent to which these cloud changes amplify or dampen warming (cloud feedback) remains uncertain. This uncertainty results from systemic difficulties in modeling and observing Arctic low clouds. Surface-based observations avoid many of these difficulties. Here, we use two decades of surface-based observations (1998–2023) to constrain and explain longwave flux change during winter. We find that longwave flux into the surface is increasing and that this increase cannot be explained by direct impacts of temperature and greenhouse gases alone. Only when increasing cloud radiative effect (0.96 ± 0.64 W/m 2 /K) is considered can increasing longwave flux be explained. Cloud radiative effect increases due to increasing cloud opacity, which is driven equally by ice-only and mixed-phase clouds. The direct observational constraint from this work suggests that increasing cloud opacity drives increasing net surface radiation on Alaska’s North Slope during winter.

Bertrand, Leah [Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (Un↗
DOE OSTI2025

Global models predict clouds at the wrong time of day: Does it matter for radiation and climate?

Accurate prediction of future climate change hinges upon the ability of Earth system models (ESMs) to simulate clouds and their radiative effects. Even if an ESM can simulate the correct clouds, a systematic error in the amount of sunlight reflected by clouds (and, thus, cloud radiative effect) can exist if the clouds are simulated at the incorrect time of day. In this work, we develop an analytical model connecting diurnal cloud biases to emergent mean state radiative biases. With the use of satellite observations, we demonstrate that there are errors in the time of day that clouds are occurring in ESMs that would cause bias in shortwave cloud radiative effect (SWCRE) that is greater than 45% of the total SWCRE bias, but such errors in the cloud diurnal cycle are masked by other compensating errors, indicating that these ESMs are getting the right answer for the wrong reasons.

Geosciences↗
DOE OSTI2025

On the Role of Airborne Ice Nucleating Particles in Primary and Secondary Ice Formation Processes in Convective Midlatitude Clouds

Abstract Formation of ice in mixed-phase clouds may proceed via primary nucleation and secondary ice production (SIP). Primary nucleation involves the presence of ice nucleating particles (INPs), while SIP follows primary nucleation, resulting in ice crystal number concentrations N ice exceeding the number of INPs. The ice formation pathways in young congestus clouds are not well understood nor are the environmental conditions favorable for the onset of SIP. Coincident airborne measurements of INPs and N ice collected during the Secondary Production of Ice in Cumulus Experiment (SPICULE) campaign over the U.S. central Great Plains are reported for young congestus clouds. Number concentrations of INPs and N ice at temperatures between −10° and −20°C were used to categorize whether SIP was active in each analyzed cloud pass. Observational data suggested that fragmentation of freezing droplets (FFDs) was occurring and the most likely SIP mechanism for ice enhancement during the early stages of the sampled clouds, where higher cloud-base temperatures and stronger updrafts produced conditions favorable for the onset of FFD. Simple model simulations of a congestus cloud were used to compare predictions of N ice from newly implemented SIP mechanisms (including FFD) alongside those from the existing Hallett–Mossop (HM) mechanism. Although predicted N ice , when all SIP mechanisms were active, was in good agreement with observations, the dominant SIP mechanism in the model was predicted to be HM. The rate of heterogeneous freezing in raindrops was likely inhibiting realistic FFD rates in the simulated cloud. These discrepancies between the observations and simulations underscore the need for extended laboratory studies to formulate improved model representations of SIP in convective clouds.

Patnaude, Ryan J. [Department of Atmospheric Scien↗