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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 127 records · Page 7

Can Restoring Tidal Wetlands Reduce Estuarine Nuisance Flooding of Coasts Under Future Sea‐Level Rise?

Wetland restoration is an increasingly popular nature‐based method for flood risk mitigation in coastal communities. In this study, we present a novel method using hydrodynamic modeling and harmonic analysis to quantify wetlands' ability to reduce future nuisance flooding. The method leverages a hydrodynamic model calibrated to present day data and was run for a range of future sea‐level rise (SLR) and wetland restoration scenarios to quantify changes to tidal harmonic amplitudes and phases. The harmonic constituents are used to generate water surface elevations over a time period of interest (e.g., one year) and compared to critical exceedance thresholds such as levee elevations. Then, changes to nuisance flooding are calculated by counting the number of hours critical thresholds are exceeded under different SLR and wetland restoration scenarios. We applied the method to Coos Bay, Oregon, USA as a test case. We found restoration reduces the number of hours nuisance flooding occurs in downtown Coos Bay from 15 hr (present day conditions) to 0 hr (fully restored condition) under median SLR (82 cm by 2100). Restoration had spatially variable impacts on reducing peak flood elevations with minimal impacts near the estuary mouth and greatest impact 32 km inland. The effectiveness of restoration was heavily dependent on future SLR. Restoration was maximally effective in 2050 under all SLR scenarios, less effective in 2100 under median SLR, and not effective under high SLR. Modeling results suggest increased tidal prism and accommodation space are driving restoration‐associated reductions in tidal amplitudes.

Brand, Matthew W. [Louisiana State Univ., Baton Ro↗

Back-to-back high category atmospheric river landfalls occur more often on the west coast of the United States

Abstract The catastrophic December 2022-January 2023 nine atmospheric rivers in California underscore the urgent need to better understand such high-risk weather extremes. Here we applied a machine learning clustering tool to understand the activity of atmospheric river clusters. Reanalysis results show that clusters with high density, that is the time fraction under atmospheric river conditions within a cluster, exhibit more frequent high-category atmospheric rivers, alongside an increased likelihood for extreme precipitation and severe land surface responses. The key circulation patterns of atmospheric river clusters are primarily attributed to subseasonal variability. Furthermore, the occurrence and density of atmospheric river clusters are modulated by the daily variability of the geopotential height field. Climate model projections suggest that atmospheric river clusters with higher density and higher categories will be more frequent as warming level increases. Our findings emphasize the important role of atmospheric river clusters in the development of climate adaptation and resilience strategies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Tidal–hydrological dynamics of water temperature across freshwater forested wetlands on the northeastern Pacific coast

Abstract Tidal freshwater forests were once extensive across temperate coastlines, but loss and fragmentation have made estimation of their ecosystem functions challenging. We measured water temperature for 2 years in three Sitka spruce tidal forests, a restoration site, and an adjacent emergent marsh on the Columbia River, Washington, United States. We assessed spatial variability of water temperature within sites including the effects of hydrology, differences among bay and tributary tidal forests, and differences between the tidal forests and the mainstem Columbia, the restoration site, and the emergent marsh. The tidal forests nearest to the bay had lower interior water temperatures than their channel confluences by up to 2.5°C (weekly median temperature) and 2.0°C (weekly maximum temperature), with most cooling occurring during the low‐flow months of July–September. Tributary sites had maximum temperatures up to 1.9°C cooler than bay sites and 4.2°C cooler than the mainstem. Temperatures in the two bay sites decreased by −0.16°C/100 m and −0.07°C/100 m, on average. The restoration site had the smallest within‐site temperature gradient. Differences in maximum temperatures were greatest when tidal range was low, while higher tidal ranges were associated with warmer and more variable site interiors relative to their confluences. These results suggest that water temperatures in these tidal forests can provide temperature refugia for cold water biota including salmon.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Total ecosystem carbon stocks at the marine-terrestrial interface: Blue carbon of the Pacific Northwest Coast, United States

The coastal ecosystems of temperate North America provide a variety of ecosystem services including high rates of carbon sequestration. Yet, little data exist for the carbon stocks of major tidal wetland types in the Pacific Northwest, United States. We quantified the total ecosystem carbon stocks (TECS) in seagrass, emergent marshes, and forested tidal wetlands, occurring along increasing elevation and decreasing salinity gradients. The TECS included the total aboveground carbon stocks and the entire soil profile (to as deep as 3 m). TECS significantly increased along the elevation and salinity gradients: 217 ± 60 Mg C/ha for seagrass (low elevation/high salinity), 417 ± 70 Mg C/ha for low marsh, 551 ± 47 Mg C/ha for high marsh, and 1,064 ± 38 Mg C/ha for tidal forest (high elevation/low salinity). Soil carbon stocks accounted for >98% of TECS in the seagrass and marsh communities and 78% in the tidal forest. Soils in the 0–100 cm portion of the profile accounted for only 48%–53% of the TECS in seagrasses and marshes and 34% of the TECS in tidal forests. Thus, the commonly applied limit defining TECS to a 100 cm depth would greatly underestimate both carbon stocks and potential greenhouse gas emissions from land-use conversion. The large carbon stocks coupled with other ecosystem services suggest value in the conservation and restoration of temperate zone tidal wetlands through climate change mitigation strategies. However, the findings suggest that long-term sea level rise effects such as tidal inundation and increased porewater salinity will likely decrease ecosystem carbon stocks in the absence of upslope wetland migration buffer zones.

Kauffman, J Boone↗

Identifying Meteorological Drivers for Errors in Modeled Winds along the Northern California Coast

Abstract An accurate wind resource dataset is required for assessing the potential energy yield of floating offshore wind farms that are expected along the California outer continental shelf. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory has developed and disseminated an updated wind resource dataset offshore of California, using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model, referred to as the CA20 dataset. As compared to buoy lidar measurements that have become available recently, the CA20 dataset showed significant positive biases for 100-m wind speeds along Northern California wind energy lease areas. To investigate the meteorological drivers for the model errors, we first consider two 1-yr simulations run with two different planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterizations: the Mellor–Yamada–Nakanishi–Niino (MYNN) PBL scheme (the chosen configuration in the CA20 dataset) and the Yonsei University PBL scheme (which significantly reduces the bias in modeled winds). By comparing the 1-yr simulations to the concurrent lidar buoy observations, we find that errors are larger with the MYNN PBL scheme in warm seasons. We then dive deeper into the analysis by running simulations for short-term (3-day) case studies to evaluate the sensitivity of initial/boundary condition forcings on model results. By analyzing the short-term simulations, we find that during synoptic-scale northerly flows driven by the North Pacific high and inland thermal low, a coastal warm bias in the MYNN simulation is mainly responsible for the modeled wind speed bias by altering the boundary layer thermodynamics. The results of our analysis will help guide the creation of an updated version of the CA20 dataset.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Forest carbon sequestration on the west coast, USA: Role of species, productivity, and stockability

Forest ecosystems store large amounts of carbon and can be important sources, or sinks, of the atmospheric carbon dioxide that is contributing to global warming. Understanding the carbon storage potential of different forests and their response to management and disturbance events are fundamental to developing policies and scenarios to partially offset greenhouse gas emissions. Projections of live tree carbon accumulation are handled differently in different models, with inconsistent results. We developed growth-and-yield style models to predict stand-level live tree carbon density as a function of stand age in all vegetation types of the coastal Pacific region, US (California, Oregon, and Washington), from 7,523 national forest inventory plots. We incorporated site productivity and stockability within the Chapman-Richards equation and tested whether intensively managed private forests behaved differently from less managed public forests. We found that the best models incorporated stockability in the equation term controlling stand carrying capacity, and site productivity in the equation terms controlling the growth rate and shape of the curve. RMSEs ranged from 10 to 137 Mg C/ha for different vegetation types. There was not a significant effect of ownership over the standard industrial rotation length (~50 yrs) for the productive Douglas-fir/western hemlock zone, indicating that differences in stockability and productivity captured much of the variation attributed to management intensity. Our models suggest that doubling the rotation length on these intensively managed lands from 35 to 70 years would result in 2.35 times more live tree carbon stored on the landscape. These findings are at odds with some studies that have projected higher carbon densities with stand age for the same vegetation types, and have not found an increase in yields (on an annual basis) with longer rotations. We suspect that differences are primarily due to the application of yield curves developed from fully-stocked, undisturbed, single-species, “normal” stands without accounting for the substantial proportion of forests that don’t meet those assumptions. The carbon accumulation curves developed here can be applied directly in growth-and-yield style projection models, and used to validate the predictions of ecophysiological, cohort, or single-tree style models being used to project carbon futures for forests in the region. Our approach may prove useful for developing robust models in other forest types.

Chisholm, Paul J. (ORCID:0000000238784707)↗

High-Resolution Regional Wave Hindcast for the U.S. Alaska Coast

Regional long-term wave hindcast with state-of-art third-generation models is essential for characterization of regional wave resources. This report summarizes modeling efforts for the simulation of the wave climate along southern Alaska, which used an unstructured, nested-grid modeling approach that incorporates a global-regional nested grid using WAVEWATCH III ® and the high-resolution SWAN (Simulating Waves Nearshore) model. Wave resource and wave bulk parameters were simulated for a 32-year period from 1979 to 2010 and were subsequently validated with wave buoy data in the model domain. Error statistics of model skills were calculated at all buoy stations. Overall, model results, both resource and bulk parameters, match observations well. The model hindcast was able to reproduce the seasonal variation of the sea state with large waves that occur in the winter and early spring months when wind forcing is strong and the calm sea state during the summer when wind forcing is weak. The hindcast also considers the effect of sea ice on wave growth, which affects the southern Bering Sea. The hindcast results, including resource and bulk parameters, were archived at every model grid point for the entire model domain at three-hour intervals. In addition, spectral results were saved at National Data Buoy Center buoy stations and selected virtual buoy locations at hourly intervals. The nested-grid modeling framework employed in this study provides a powerful and efficient modeling approach for accurately simulating wave climate at regional and long-term temporal scales with sufficiently fine resolutions in the nearshore region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Transmission Alternatives for California North Coast Offshore Wind, Volume 4: Cost-Benefit Analysis Report

The purpose of this report is to compare the costs and benefits of installing offshore wind power plants with capacities up to 500 megawatts (MW) in the Humboldt Wind Energy Area offshore California, focusing on identifying the costs related to transmission upgrades and possible alternatives such as energy storage. We identify several options that result in lower costs than upgrading transmission to provide full deliverability. Our estimates of the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) assuming full deliverability range from $80/MWh for a 144-MW plant to $73/MWh for a 480-MW plant with a 2030 commercial operation date; however, the additional cost of transmission upgrades increases these values to between $86/MWh and $98/MWh. Based on curtailment and revenue estimates developed using a production cost model, the LCOEs for plant capacities of 144 MW and 168 MW with Energy Only deliverability are lower than the combined cost of energy and transmission upgrades for full deliverability. The addition of a 4-hour, 15-MW battery energy storage system increases revenue for both plant sizes, with the 144 MW + storage scenario producing the most revenue relative to LCOE.

17 WIND ENERGY↗