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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 127 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

The Simons Observatory: Beam Characterization for the Small Aperture Telescopes

Abstract We use time-domain simulations of Jupiter observations to test and develop a beam reconstruction pipeline for the Simons Observatory Small Aperture Telescopes. The method relies on a mapmaker that estimates and subtracts correlated atmospheric noise and a beam fitting code designed to compensate for the bias caused by the mapmaker. We test our reconstruction performance for four different frequency bands against various algorithmic parameters, atmospheric conditions, and input beams. We additionally show the reconstruction quality as a function of the number of available observations and investigate how different calibration strategies affect the beam uncertainty. For all of the cases considered, we find good agreement between the fitted results and the input beam model within an ∼1.5% error for a multipole range ℓ = 30–700 and an ∼0.5% error for a multipole range ℓ = 50–200. We conclude by using a harmonic-domain component separation algorithm to verify that the beam reconstruction errors and biases observed in our analysis do not significantly bias the Simons Observatory r -measurement

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2025

Nickase fidelity drives EvolvR-mediated diversification in mammalian cells

Abstract In vivo genetic diversifiers have previously enabled efficient searches of genetic variant fitness landscapes for continuous directed evolution. However, existing genomic diversification modalities for mammalian genomic loci exclusively rely on deaminases to generate transition mutations within target loci, forfeiting access to most missense mutations. Here, we engineer CRISPR-guided error-prone DNA polymerases (EvolvR) to diversify all four nucleotides within genomic loci in mammalian cells. We demonstrate that EvolvR generates both transition and transversion mutations throughout a mutation window of at least 40 bp and implement EvolvR to evolve previously unreported drug-resistantMAP2K1variants via substitutions not achievable with deaminases. Moreover, we discover that the nickase’s mismatch tolerance limits EvolvR’s mutation window and substitution biases in a gRNA-specific fashion. To compensate for gRNA-to-gRNA variability in mutagenesis, we maximize the number of gRNA target sequences by incorporating a PAM-flexible nickase into EvolvR. Finally, we find a strong correlation between predicted free energy changes underlying R-loop formation and EvolvR’s performance using a given gRNA. The EvolvR system diversifies all four nucleotides to enable the evolution of mammalian cells, while nuclease and gRNA-specific properties underlying nickase fidelity can be engineered to further enhance EvolvR’s mutation rates.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2023

Best Practices for Body Temperature Measurement with Infrared Thermography: External Factors Affecting Accuracy

Infrared thermographs (IRTs) are commonly used during disease pandemics to screen individuals with elevated body temperature (EBT). To address the limited research on external factors affecting IRT accuracy, we conducted benchtop measurements and computer simulations with two IRTs, with or without an external temperature reference source (ETRS) for temperature compensation. The combination of an IRT and an ETRS forms a screening thermograph (ST). We investigated the effects of viewing angle (θ, 0–75°), ETRS set temperature (T ETRS , 30–40 °C), ambient temperature (T atm , 18–32 °C), relative humidity (RH, 15–80%), and working distance (d, 0.4–2.8 m). We discovered that STs exhibited higher accuracy compared to IRTs alone. Across the tested ranges of T atm and RH, both IRTs exhibited absolute measurement errors of less than 0.97 °C, while both STs maintained absolute measurement errors of less than 0.12 °C. The optimal T ETRS for EBT detection was 36–37 °C. When θ was below 30°, the two STs underestimated calibration source (CS) temperature (T CS ) of less than 0.05 °C. The computer simulations showed absolute temperature differences of up to 0.28 °C and 0.04 °C between estimated and theoretical temperatures for IRTs and STs, respectively, considering d of 0.2–3.0 m, T atm of 15–35 °C, and RH of 5–95%. The results highlight the importance of precise calibration and environmental control for reliable temperature readings and suggest proper ranges for these factors, aiming to enhance current standard documents and best practice guidelines. These insights enhance our understanding of IRT performance and their sensitivity to various factors, thereby facilitating the development of best practices for accurate EBT measurement.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Internal Model-Based Active Damping Strategy for a Back-to-Back Modular Multilevel Converter System for Advanced Grid Support: Preprint

The proposed work focuses on the possibility of achieving the reduction in the size of the interfacing filter for the grid connection for a back-to-back modular multilevel converter system with the use of third order LCL filters. To achieve the same attenuation, it is possible to reduce the size of the interfacing filters by the usage of third order filters. However, this kind of filtering comes with the limitation of having sustained oscillations due to lack of damping especially during transient changes. Therefore, in this work, a methodology has been proposed based on the principle of internal model to cater for this unwanted oscillations. The third order system is modeled inside the microcontroller with the damping enabled. The error between the output from the model and the actual are compared and the error is utilized to accomplish the active damping strategy. The proposed architecture is verified via computer simulations based on MATLAB/Simulink domain and various case study results along with their discussion is presented in this paper.

dq control↗
DOE OSTI2022

Multi-tool optimization for computer controlled optical surfacing

With the rapid development of precision technologies, the demand of high-precision optical surfaces has drastically increased. These optical surfaces are mainly fabricated with computer controlled optical surfacing (CCOS). In a CCOS process, a target surface removal profile is achieved by scheduling the dwell time for a set of machine tools. The optimized dwell time should be positive and smooth to ensure convergence to the target while considering CNC dynamics. The total run time of each machine tool is also expected to be balanced to improve the overall processing efficiency. In the past few decades, dwell time optimization for a single machine tool has been extensively developed. While the methods are applicable to multi-tool scenarios, they fail to consider the overall contributions of multiple tools simultaneously. In this paper, we conduct a systematic study on the strategies for multi-tool dwell time optimization and propose an innovative method for simultaneously scheduling dwell time for multiple tools for the first time. First, the influential factors to the positiveness and smoothness of dwell time solutions for a single machine tool are analyzed. The compensation strategies that minimize the residual while considering the CNC dynamics limit are then proposed. Afterwards, these strategies are extended to the proposed multi-tool optimization that further balances the run time of machine tools. Finally, the superiority of each strategy is carefully studied via simulation and experiment. The experiment is performed by bonnet polishing a 60 mm × 60 mm mirror with three tools of different diameters ( i.e., 12 mm, 8 mm, and 5 mm). The figure error of the mirror is reduced from 45.42 nm to 11.18 nm root mean square in 13.28 min. Moreover, the measured polishing result well coincides with the estimation, which proves the effectiveness of the proposed method.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

On the Computation of the Beam Position in the Arcs of the Hadron Storage Ring

To compensate for the velocity differences of the hadrons and electrons in the Electron-Ion Collider, the hadron beam will be operated in a large range of the radial displacement (±20 mm in the 64 mm wide vacuum chamber). Machine protection and beam optics measurement require high-accuracy calculations of the beam position from the signal induced on the pickup electrodes. For the HSR, we need at least the fifth-order polynomial fit, which provides 70 microns r.m.s. error in the 40 by 20 mm region of interest as shown in Fig. 1. The calculations are made using a MATLAB script solving the 2D electrostatic problem.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Interpreting Sunyaev–Zel’dovich observations with MillenniumTNG: mass and environment scaling relations

ABSTRACT Sunyaev–Zel’dovich (SZ) measurements can dramatically improve our understanding of the intergalactic medium and the role of feedback processes in galaxy formation, allowing us to calibrate important astrophysical systematics in cosmological constraints from weak lensing galaxy clustering surveys. However, the signal is only measured in a two-dimensional projection, and its correct interpretation relies on understanding the connection between observable quantities and the underlying intrinsic properties of the gas, in addition to the relation between the gas and the underlying matter distribution. One way to address these challenges is through the use of hydrodynamical simulations such as the high-resolution, large-volume MillenniumTNG suite. We find that measurements of the optical depth, τ, and the Compton-y parameter, Y, receive large line-of-sight contributions that can be removed effectively by applying a compensated aperture photometry filter. In contrast with other τ probes (e.g. X-rays and fast radio bursts), the kinematic SZ-inferred τ receives most of its signal from a confined cylindrical region around the halo due to the velocity decorrelation along the line of sight. Additionally, we perform fits to the Y–M and τ–M scaling relations and report best-fitting parameters adopting the smoothly broken power law formalism. We note that subgrid physics modelling can broaden the error bar on these by 30 per cent for intermediate-mass haloes (${\sim }10^{13} \, {\rm M}_{\odot }$). The scatter of the scaling relations can be captured by an intrinsic dependence on concentration and an extrinsic dependence on tidal shear. Finally, we comment on the effect of using galaxies rather than haloes in observations, which can bias the inferred profiles by ∼20 per cent for L* galaxies.

Hadzhiyska, Boryana (ORCID:0000000223123121)↗
DOE OSTI2024

E-PVT: enhanced position-velocity-time scheduler for computer-controlled optical finishing with comprehensive considerations of dynamics constraints, continuity and efficiency

Deterministic computer-controlled optical finishing is an essential approach for achieving high-quality optical surfaces. Its determinism and convergence rely heavily on precise and smooth motion control to guide the machine tool over an optical surface to correct residual errors. One widely supported and smooth motion control model is position-velocity-time (PVT), which employs piecewise cubic polynomials to describe positions. Our prior research introduced a PVT-based velocity scheduling method, demonstrating sub-nanometer level convergence in ion beam figuring (IBF) processes. However, three challenges remained. Firstly, this method relies on quadratic programming, resulting in computational intensiveness for dense tool paths. Secondly, the dynamics constraints and velocity and acceleration continuities are not comprehensively considered, limiting the full potential of PVT-based control. Thirdly, no compensation mechanism existed when dynamics constraints are exceeded. In this study, in response to these challenges, we proposed the Enhanced PVT (E-PVT) method, reducing the time complexity from O ( n 3 ) to O ( n ) while fully addressing dynamics constraints and continuities. A novel compensation method utilizing particle swarm optimization was proposed to address situations where dynamics constraints might be exceeded while maintaining the overall processing efficiency. Validation through simulation and experimentation confirmed the improved performance of E-PVT.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Detecting and tracking drift in quantum information processors

Abstract If quantum information processors are to fulfill their potential, the diverse errors that affect them must be understood and suppressed. But errors typically fluctuate over time, and the most widely used tools for characterizing them assume static error modes and rates. This mismatch can cause unheralded failures, misidentified error modes, and wasted experimental effort. Here, we demonstrate a spectral analysis technique for resolving time dependence in quantum processors. Our method is fast, simple, and statistically sound. It can be applied to time-series data from any quantum processor experiment. We use data from simulations and trapped-ion qubit experiments to show how our method can resolve time dependence when applied to popular characterization protocols, including randomized benchmarking, gate set tomography, and Ramsey spectroscopy. In the experiments, we detect instability and localize its source, implement drift control techniques to compensate for this instability, and then demonstrate that the instability has been suppressed.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Improving the precision of forces in real-space pseudopotential density functional theory

The high-order finite difference real-space pseudopotential density functional theory (DFT) approach is a valuable method for large-scale, massively parallel DFT calculations. A significant challenge in the approach is the oscillating “egg-box” error introduced by aliasing associated with a coarse grid spacing. To address this issue while minimizing computational cost, we developed a finite difference interpolation (FDI) scheme [Roller et al., J. Chem. Theory Comput. 19, 3889 (2023)] as a means of exploiting the high resolution of the pseudopotential to reduce egg-box effects systematically. Here, we show an implementation of this method in the PARSEC code and examine the practical utility of the combination of FDI with additional methods for improving force precision and/or reducing its computational cost, including orbital-based forces, compensating charges (namely, adding and subtracting a judiciously chosen charge density such that the total density is unaltered), and a modified spatial domain in which the real-space grid is defined. Using selected small molecules, as well as metallic Li, as test cases, we show that a combination of all four aspects leads to a significant reduction in computational cost while retaining a high level of precision that supports accurate structures and vibrational spectra, as well as stable and accurate molecular dynamics runs.

Chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2020

Modeling Spatial Heterogeneity in Surface Turbulent Heat Flux in the U.S. Southern Great Plains

Advances in numerical modeling of cloud dynamics are driving a need for improved land model prediction at convective storm scales. Here, satellite and ground-based vegetation remote sensing data were combined with land model experiments to more accurately characterize land surface spatial heterogeneity in the Community Land Model (CLM4.0). The new subgrid classification of plant functional types (PFT) and leaf area index (LAI) enables consistent comparison between models and ground-based flux measurements in the U.S. southern Great Plains. Errors in vegetation data sets (inferred from comparison between 250 m satellite and ground-based LAI), while large, had less impact on the simulated characteristics of spatial heterogeneity compared to errors in model representation of surface energy partitioning (between latent and sensible heat flux) and its relationship to LAI. Predicted spatial heterogeneity in surface energy partitioning was enhanced after replacing soil and stomatal resistance parameters with a new set that better predicts the observed relationship to LAI. These modifications increase the number of smaller (mesoscale) dry land patches having higher sensible heat flux. The parameter experiments suggest that vegetation state and processes (transpiration) act to broaden the size spectrum of surface heat flux heterogeneity, which can influence clouds and convective initiation. Moreover, improvements in vegetation input data and model parameters had partially compensating effects on surface flux heterogeneity, indicating the importance of evaluating input data and parameterizations together to improve prediction at higher spatial resolutions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Compensation of heat load deformations using adaptive optics for the ALS upgrade: a wave optics study

In this paper, a realistic wave optics simulation method has been developed to study how wavefront distortions originating from heat load deformations can be corrected using adaptive X-ray optics. Several planned soft X-ray and tender X-ray insertion-device beamlines in the Advanced Light Source upgrade rely on a common design principle. A flat, first mirror intercepts the white beam; vertical focusing is provided by a variable-line-space monochromator; and horizontal focusing comes from a single, pre-figured, adaptive mirror. A variety of scenarios to cope with thermal distortion in the first mirror are studied by finite-element analysis. The degradation of the intensity distribution at the focal plane is analyzed and the adaptive optics that correct it is modeled. The range of correctable wavefront errors across the operating range of the beamlines is reported in terms of mirror curvature and spatial frequencies. The software developed is a one-dimensional wavefront propagation package made available in the OASYS suite, an adaptable, customizable and efficient beamline modeling platform.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Second harmonic generation for estimating state of charge of lithium-ion batteries

This study applied the nonlinear ultrasonic method, second harmonic generation, to precisely estimate the state of charge (SoC) in lithium-ion batteries. The second harmonic of the longitudinal wave is generated on a pouch cell battery at 5 MHz with a through-transmission setup. The relative nonlinear parameter β' is determined by analyzing the amplitudes at the fundamental and second harmonic frequencies. To enhance the nonlinear parameter's measurement accuracy, multiple excitation amplitudes are employed. Two separate charge/discharge tests (four-cycle and eight-cycle) are conducted on the battery at a rate of C/10. The nonlinear parameter is measured periodically during the charge/discharge process, and temperature compensation is applied to the measurement. The correlation curves between the nonlinear parameter and the actual SoC align well for the four-cycle and eight-cycle tests, and a robust linear relationship is observed for both correlation curves. A linear model and a second-order polynomial model are applied to fit the correlation using all data points from both tests. The two models are employed to validate the SoC prediction on a second battery by using a four-cycle test. Furthermore, the results indicate that both models can predict the SoC with an accuracy of approximately 3%, whereas the polynomial model demonstrates smaller errors in the regions near 0% and 100% SoC. Therefore, the nonlinear parameter β', measured through the second harmonic generation, can effectively predict lithium-ion battery SoC with an accuracy of less than 3%.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Synthesis of CdZnTeSe single crystals for room temperature radiation detector fabrication: mitigation of hole trapping effects using a convolutional neural network

In this article, we report the growth of Cd 0.9 Zn 0.1 Te 0.97 Se 0.03 (CZTS) wide bandgap semiconductor single crystals for room temperature gamma-ray detection using a modified vertical Bridgman method. Charge transport properties measured in the radiation detectors, fabricated from the grown CZTS crystals, indicated signs of hole trapping. Hole traps inhibit high-resolution radiation detection especially for energetic gamma rays. Machine learning (ML) applications are gaining tremendous mpetus in improving device and sensor performance by compensating for limi tations arising from such intrinsic material properties. In this article, we describe a deep convolutional neural network (CNN) that has demonstrated remarkable efficiency in identifying the energy of a gamma photon detected by a CZTS detector. The CNN has been trained using simulated data that resemble output pulses from actual CZTS detectors when exposed to 662-keV gamma photons. The device properties required for the simulation have been derived from radiation detection measurements on a real Cd 0.9 Zn 0.1 Te 0.97 Se 0.03 detector fabricated in our laboratory. The CNN has been trained with detector pulses arising through photoelectric (PE) and Compton scattering (CS) separately. The percentage error in predicting the detected energies, within an extremely small duration of 0.28 ms, was found to be lower than 0.1% for gamma energies above 50 keV and for training datasets con taining PE and CS events separately. The CNN was also validated for a mixed PE and CS dataset to obtain a prediction error of 1%. Additionally, the effect of detector resolution on the efficiency of the CNN was also explored.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Adaptive Model-Free Vehicle Path-Tracking via Fast-Converging Prescribed-Time Newton-Based Extremum-Seeking Control

Model-free control (MFC) offers a simple and effective approach to automated vehicle path-tracking without requiring an explicit plant model for control law design. However, gain tuning in MFC is typically carried out through trial-and-error, which can be time-consuming and may lead to suboptimal performance. To address this limitation, extremum-seeking-based adaptive MFC has shown promise by enabling real-time adaptation of control gains, without relying on a predefined vehicle model. Nonetheless, existing ESC approaches often suffer from slow convergence. This paper integrates MFC, employing longitudinal and lateral ultra-local models of a rear-wheel-drive vehicle, with a novel prescribed-time (PT) Newton-based extremum-seeking control (ESC) strategy that ensures rapid convergence of control gains within the prescribed time. Unlike conventional gradient-based ESC methods, the PT Newton-based ESC leverages artificial delays and time-periodic gains, not only to guarantee convergence within the specified time, but also to compensate for feedback delays. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed approach significantly improves gain adaptation speed and tracking accuracy. This work advances adaptive model-free vehicle control by offering a high-performance, delay-resilient alternative to existing ESCMFC frameworks.

Waleed khan, Muhammad [The University of Texas at ↗
DOE OSTI2023

Long-term variability in immersion-mode marine ice-nucleating particles from climate model simulations and observations

Abstract. Ice-nucleating particles (INPs) in the Southern Ocean (SO) atmosphere have significant impacts on cloud radiative and microphysical properties. Yet, INP prediction skill in climate models remains poorly understood, in part because of the lack of long-term measurements. Here we show, for the first time, how model-simulated INP concentrations compare with year-round INP measurements during the Macquarie Island Cloud Radiation Experiment (MICRE) campaign from 2017–2018. We simulate immersion-mode INP concentrations using the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 (E3SMv1) by combining simulated aerosols with recently developed deterministic INP parameterizations and the native classical nucleation theory (CNT) for mineral dust in E3SMv1. Because MICRE did not collect aerosol measurements of super-micron particles, which are more effective ice nucleators, we evaluate the model's aerosol fields at other high-latitude sites using long-term in situ observations of dust and sea spray aerosol. We find that the model underestimates dust and overestimates sea spray aerosol concentrations by 1 to 2 orders of magnitude for most of the high-latitude sites in the Southern Hemisphere. We next compare predicted INP concentrations with concentrations of INPs collected on filter samples (typically for 2 or 3 d) and processed offline using the Colorado State University ice spectrometer (IS) in immersion freezing mode. We find that when deterministic parameterizations for both dust and sea spray INPs are used, simulated INPs are within a factor of 10 of observed INPs more than 60 % of the time during summer. Our results also indicate that the E3SM's current treatment of mineral dust immersion freezing in the SO is impacted by compensating biases – an underprediction of dust amount was compensated by an overprediction of its effectiveness as INPs. We also perform idealized droplet freezing experiments to quantify the implications of the time-dependent behavior assumed by the E3SM's CNT-parameterization and compare with the ice spectrometer observations. We find that the E3SM CNT 10 s diagnostic used in this study is a reasonable approximation of the exact formulation of CNT, when applied to ice spectrometer measurements in low-INP conditions similar to Macquarie Island. However, the linearized 10 s diagnostic underestimates the exact formula by an order of magnitude or more in places with high-INP conditions like the Sahara. Overall, our findings suggest that it is important to correct the biases in E3SM's simulated dust life cycle and update E3SM's INP parameterizations. INP prediction errors of 2 to 3 orders of magnitude can have considerable impacts on the simulated cloud and radiative properties in global climate models. On comparing INP concentrations during MICRE against ship-based campaigns, Measurements of Aerosols, Radiation, and Clouds over the Southern Ocean (MARCUS) and Antarctic Circumnavigation Expedition (ACE), we find that INPs from the latter are significantly higher only in regions closer to Macquarie Island. This alludes to the fact that physical, chemical and biological processes affecting INP concentrations as stimulated by the island could be partly responsible for the high INP concentrations observed at Macquarie Island during the MICRE campaign. Therefore, improvements to both aerosol simulation and INP parameterizations are required to adequately simulate INPs and their cloud impacts in E3SM. It will be helpful to include a parallel measurement of the size-resolved aerosol composition and explore opportunities for long-term measurement platforms in future field campaigns studying INP sources in remote marine regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Error field correction strategies in preparation to MAST-U operation

In magnetic fusion devices, unwanted non-axisymmetric magnetic field perturbations, known as error fields (EF), can have detrimental effects on plasma stability and confinement. Such EFs may originate from several sources, such as axi-symmetric coil misalignments, coil feeds, 3D structures in the wall surrounding the plasma, presence of ferromagnetic materials near the plasma surface, blanket materials in future devices. To minimize their impact on plasma performance and on the available operational space, it is important to identify the EF sources and develop EF control strategies. MAST Upgrade (MAST-U) is a spherical tokamak which will operate in the near future after a series of enhancements from the previous MAST experiment. To deliver a machine with EF amplitude low enough to allow a high quality experimental programme, systematic analysis of the intrinsic EF sources has been carried out for poloidal eld (P) and divertor (D) coils. To deliver a machine with EF amplitude low enough to allow a high quality experimental programme, systematic analysis of the intrinsic EF sources has been carried out for poloidal field (P) and divertor (D) coils, whose magnetic eld measurements were available when writing this paper. Such measurements reveal that P and D coils are 3D deformed and thus are responsible for intrinsic EFs, with mainly n=1 and n=2 toroidal mode numbers. In preparation to MAST-U operation, both passive and active EF control strategies have been adopted for n=1 and n=2 EFs compensation. Passive EF control consisted of installing finely each D and P coil within MAST-U device so as to minimize the intrinsic n=1 EF amplitude. The optimal coil alignment has been determined based on magnetic eld measurements and the corresponding 3D electro-magnetic modelling, and envisaged coil shift and tilt of 3.2 mm and 0.7 mrad, respectively, in the case of P coil named P4. Conversely, active control will be use during MAST-U operation to reduce the n=2 EF which is associated mainly with P4 and P5, as well. Since these coils have been re-used from the MAST device, studies attempting n=2 EF control, based on MAST plasmas, have been modelled utilizing the MARS-F code to interpret experimental results in MAST and to give hints for future n=2 EF control studies in MAST-U. Here, a model-based control set for n=2 EF control has been identified which would allow for the minimization of rotation braking, of the resonant magnetic field at the q=2 and of the plasma displacement in MAST-U, simultaneously.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Novel Modeling Framework for Computationally Efficient and Accurate Real-Time Ensemble Flood Forecasting With Uncertainty Quantification

A novel modeling framework that simultaneously improves accuracy, predictability, and computational efficiency is presented. It embraces the benefits of three modeling techniques integrated together for the first time: surrogate modeling, parameter inference, and data assimilation. The use of polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) surrogates significantly decreases computational time. Parameter inference allows for model faster convergence, reduced uncertainty, and superior accuracy of simulated results. Ensemble Kalman filters assimilate errors that occur during forecasting. To examine the applicability and effectiveness of the integrated framework, we developed 18 approaches according to how surrogate models are constructed, what type of parameter distributions are used as model inputs, and whether model parameters are updated during the data assimilation procedure. We conclude that (1) PCE must be built over various forcing and flow conditions, and in contrast to previous studies, it does not need to be rebuilt at each time step; (2) model parameter specification that relies on constrained, posterior information of parameters (so-called Selected specification) can significantly improve forecasting performance and reduce uncertainty bounds compared to Random specification using prior information of parameters; and (3) no substantial differences in results exist between single and dual ensemble Kalman filters, but the latter better simulates flood peaks. The use of PCE effectively compensates for the computational load added by the parameter inference and data assimilation (up to ~80 times faster). Therefore, the presented approach contributes to a shift in modeling paradigm arguing that complex, high-fidelity hydrologic and hydraulic models should be increasingly adopted for real-time and ensemble flood forecasting.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗