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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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125 records · Page 7

An Analysis of the Johnson-Lindenstrauss Lemma with the Bivariate Gamma Distribution

Probabilistic proofs of the Johnson-Lindenstrauss lemma imply that random projection can reduce the dimension of a data set and approximately preserve pairwise distances. If a distance being approximately preserved is called a success, and the complement of this event is called a failure, then such a random projection likely results in no failures. Assuming a Gaussian random projection, the lemma is proved by showing that the no-failure probability is positive using a combination of Bonferroni's inequality and Markov's inequality. This paper modifies this proof in two ways to obtain a greater lower bound on the no-failure probability. First, Bonferroni's inequality is applied to pairs of failures instead of individual failures. Second, since a pair of projection errors has a bivariate gamma distribution, this probability of a pair of successes is bounded using an inequality from [Jensen, 1969]. If n is the number of points to be embedded and μ is the probability of success, then this leads to an increase in the lower bound on the no-failure probability of $\frac{1}{2}$ ($\genfrac{}{}{0pt}{}{n}{2}$) (1- μ ) 2 is ($\genfrac{}{}{0pt}{}{n}{2}$) is even and $\frac{1}{2}$ (($\genfrac{}{}{0pt}{}{n}{2}$)-1) (1- μ ) 2 if ($\genfrac{}{}{0pt}{}{n}{2}$) is odd. For example, if n =10 5 points are to be embedded in k =10 4 dimensions with a tolerance of ϵ=0.1, then the improvement in the lower bound is on the order of 10 -14 . We also show that further improvement is possible if the inequality in [Jensen, 1969] extends to three successes, though we do not have a proof of this result.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

Synthesis and characterization of Pt(Cu 0.67 Sn 0.33 )

Pt(Cu 0.67 Sn 0.33 ) has recently been found in a natural sample. In order to be able to characterize this new ternary compound, we synthesized it from the elements. Samples were characterized by X-ray powder diffraction, differential scanning calorimetry, thermal relaxation calorimetry, and scanning electron microscopy studies. Density functional theory-based model calculations complemented the experimental studies. Pt(Cu 0.67 Sn 0.33 )was already formed at a relatively low temperature of 773 K. Rietveld refinement of Pt(Cu 0.67 Sn 0.33 ) has been carried out in CuAu-type or L1 0 -type structure, space group P4/mmm, with Pt on 0,0,0 and disordered Cu and Sn on 1/2, 1/2, 1/2 and Z = 1. The lattice parameters are a = 2.823(1) Å, c = 3.64(1) Å, and V = 29.00(4) Å which are in good agreement with values obtained earlier on the natural sample and with the results of DFT calculations. The vibrational entropy for Pt(Cu 0.67 Sn 0.33 ) is $S_{298.15}^{vib}$ = 79.9(7) J mol -1 K -1 . The pressure dependence up to 36(2) GPa of the unit-cell volume and the lattice parameters and unit-cell volume have been obtained by synchrotron based powder diffraction using a diamond anvil cell. A fit of a 3rd-order Birch–Murnaghan equation of state to the Pt(Cu 0.67 Sn 0.33 )) (p,V)-data results in a bulk modulus of B 0 = 215(27) GPa and B' = 5(2).

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Dark energy survey year 3 results: cosmological constraints from the analysis of cosmic shear in harmonic space

ABSTRACT We present cosmological constraints from the analysis of angular power spectra of cosmic shear maps based on data from the first three years of observations by the Dark Energy Survey (DES Y3). Our measurements are based on the pseudo-Cℓ method and complement the analysis of the two-point correlation functions in real space, as the two estimators are known to compress and select Gaussian information in different ways, due to scale cuts. They may also be differently affected by systematic effects and theoretical uncertainties, making this analysis an important cross-check. Using the same fiducial Lambda cold dark matter model as in the DES Y3 real-space analysis, we find ${S_8 \equiv \sigma _8 \sqrt{\Omega _{\rm m}/0.3} = 0.793^{+0.038}_{-0.025}}$, which further improves to S8 = 0.784 ± 0.026 when including shear ratios. This result is within expected statistical fluctuations from the real-space constraint, and in agreement with DES Y3 analyses of non-Gaussian statistics, but favours a slightly higher value of S8, which reduces the tension with the Planck 2018 constraints from 2.3σ in the real space analysis to 1.5σ here. We explore less conservative intrinsic alignments models than the one adopted in our fiducial analysis, finding no clear preference for a more complex model. We also include small scales, using an increased Fourier mode cut-off up to $k_{\rm max}={5}\, {h}\, {\rm Mpc}^{-1}$, which allows to constrain baryonic feedback while leaving cosmological constraints essentially unchanged. Finally, we present an approximate reconstruction of the linear matter power spectrum at present time, found to be about 20 per cent lower than predicted by Planck 2018, as reflected by the lower S8 value.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Prospects for Galactic and stellar astrophysics with asteroseismology of giant stars in the TESS continuous viewing zones and beyond

ABSTRACT The NASA Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (NASA-TESS) mission presents a treasure trove for understanding the stars it observes and the Milky Way, in which they reside. We present a first look at the prospects for Galactic and stellar astrophysics by performing initial asteroseismic analyses of bright (G < 11) red giant stars in the TESS southern continuous viewing zone (SCVZ). Using three independent pipelines, we detect νmax and Δν in 41 per cent of the 15 405 star parent sample (6388 stars), with consistency at a level of $\sim \! 2{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ in νmax and $\sim \! 5{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ in Δν. Based on this, we predict that seismology will be attainable for ∼3 × 105 giants across the whole sky and at least 104 giants with ≥1 yr of observations in the TESS-CVZs, subject to improvements in analysis and data reduction techniques. The best quality TESS-CVZ data, for 5574 stars where pipelines returned consistent results, provide high-quality power spectra across a number of stellar evolutionary states. This makes possible studies of, for example, the asymptotic giant branch bump. Furthermore, we demonstrate that mixed ℓ = 1 modes and rotational splitting are cleanly observed in the 1-yr data set. By combining TESS-CVZ data with TESS-HERMES, SkyMapper, APOGEE, and Gaia, we demonstrate its strong potential for Galactic archaeology studies, providing good age precision and accuracy that reproduces well the age of high [α/Fe] stars and relationships between mass and kinematics from previous studies based on e.g. Kepler. Better quality astrometry and simpler target selection than the Kepler sample makes this data ideal for studies of the local star formation history and evolution of the Galactic disc. These results provide a strong case for detailed spectroscopic follow-up in the CVZs to complement that which has been (or will be) collected by current surveys.

Mackereth, J. Ted↗

Valence-to-core X-ray emission spectroscopy of vanadium oxide and lithiated vanadyl phosphate materials

In this work, we report valence-to-core (VTC) X-ray emission spectroscopy (XES) measurements and theoretical calculations of the electrochemical sequence ε-VOPO 4 , ε-LiVOPO 4 , ε-Li 2 VOPO 4 and the reference oxides V 2 O 3 , VO 2 , and V 2 O 5 . In our analysis of these results, we establish a framework for interrogating chemical bonding that is generally applicable to a wide range of systems, including complex, extended inorganic compounds. While this latter regime has garnered less focused application than, e.g. , metalloenzymes in many excellent catalysis studies, we show that the technique provides high utility in materials-focused energy storage research. Here, sensitivities to the local atomic structure and hybridization schemes are discussed in detail. Similarly, the effect of lithiation on oxidation, delocalization, and shifts in ligand valence energy levels are all readily apparent in the analyzed results. Finally, the TDDFT projections clearly reveal the directional dependencies of the valence band at each of the vanadium sites. Our results demonstrate laboratory-based X-ray spectroscopy instrumentation is a viable route for attaining well-resolved VTC-XES features for inorganic compounds of 3d transition metals, even for samples of limited quantity or suffering from sensitivity to the atmosphere. The experimental results are in good agreement with results produced by real-space Green's function and time-dependent density functional theory (TDDFT) methods, respectively. Hence, we propose that VTC-XES, when equipped with appropriate theoretical support, can be a valuable complement to X-ray absorption pre-edge features for more detailed characterization of a compound's electronic structure. We expect similar analyses will find application in a broad range of materials chemistry research and provide both fundamental and applied insights.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Simulating High-Frequency Seismograms in Realistic Earth Models to Better Understand Source Discrimination Based on Differential Magnitudes ( M L− M c)

Discriminating low-yield underground nuclear explosions from small earthquakes is a key task in monitoring nuclear test ban treaties. P/S amplitude ratios have been an effective discriminant for moderate-sized events recorded at regional distances, but it is unclear if they are as effective in discriminating small seismic events recorded at local distances (<150 km). The difference between local magnitude (M L ) and coda duration magnitude (M c ) has been proposed as a new discriminant that may complement P/S amplitude ratios at local distances. Here, in this work, we calculate high-frequency (up to ∼4 Hz) synthetic seismograms at epicentral distances of 0–30 km in realistic models of the Salt Lake basin (Utah, United States) to better understand how variations in source type and depth affect M L −M c values. The Earth models incorporate simplified 1D and deterministic 3D structures, small-wavelength stochastic velocity perturbations, and surface topography. Coda waves are enhanced for the more complicated models compared to the base 1D model, but still underpredict observed durations by about a factor of two, which results in overprediction of amplitude to duration ratios (i.e., M L −M c values) for a near-surface explosion and a 7 km deep earthquake. For both source types, the predicted M L and M c values decrease as source depth increases, and M L −M c shows only minor variation with depth; however, M L −M c is on average ∼0.5 units smaller for explosions than earthquakes. This finding may imply that M L −M c has sensitivity to source type, in addition to being a depth discriminant, but more modeling is needed given the limitations of the current study. Future modeling should incorporate higher-frequency (≳5 Hz) simulations over a larger distance range (0–150 km), where M L and M c are commonly measured, while honoring low shear velocities (<300 m/s) near the surface and sampling a wider range of earthquake and explosion source mechanisms.

Hutchings, Sean J. [Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City,↗

Preliminary Component Design and Cost Estimation of a Novel Electric-Thermal Energy Storage System Using Solid Particles

Energy storage will become indispensable to complement the uncertainty of intermittent renewable resources and to firm the electricity supply as renewable power generation becomes the mainstream new-built energy source and fossil fuel power plants are phased out to meet carbon-neutral utility targets. Current energy storage methods based on pumped storage hydropower or batteries have many limitations. Thermal energy storage (TES) has unique advantages in scale and siting flexibility to provide grid-scale storage capacity. A particle-based TES system is projected to have promising cost and performance characteristics to meet the future growing energy storage needs. This paper introduces the system and components required for particle TES to become technically and economically competitive. The system integrates electric particle heaters, particle TES within insulated concrete silos, and an efficient air-Brayton combined-cycle power system to provide power for storage durations up to several days via low-cost, high-performance storage cycles. Design specifications and cost estimation of major components in a commercial-scale system are presented in this paper. A techno-economic analysis based on preliminary component designs and performance indicates that particle TES integrated with an air-Brayton combined-cycle power system has a path to achieve the targeted levelized cost of storage of 5 ¢/kWh-cycle at a round-trip efficiency of 50% when taking low-cost energy-specific components and leveraging basic assets from existing thermal power plants. The cost model provides insights for further development and economic potentials for long-duration energy storage.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Fire, dust, air and water: Improving aerosol biogeochemistry interactions in ACME. Final report

Aerosol-biogeochemistry interactions will have important consequences for human health, ecosystem services, and climate feedbacks over the next several decades. In this proposal we seek to link how human activities on land, including direct industrial emissions and landscape fires, impact the atmosphere and the biogeochemistry of the ocean and land. Our overall goal was to complement existing work at DOE labs to improve the capability and performance of the E3SM model in short-term, high-resolution projections of climate. Projections of ocean uptake of anthropogenic carbon are highly dependent on the details of the ocean physical and biogeochemistry parameterizations. Potentially equally important are the estimates of increases in iron and soluble nitrogen deposition in aerosols to the open ocean, but there are substantial uncertainties in these feedbacks. The E3SM land model simulates natural and anthropogenic fires, but improvement is needed to more accurately simulate fire responses to climate variability as well as fire contributions to terrestrial climate feedbacks. This proposal addressed four of the six priorities within the ACME/E3SM call by improving the representation of fire, industrial combustion sources, and desert dust and adding iron and soluble iron to the atmospheric chemistry (1). Our work focused on improving ocean biogeochemistry and the response of the oceans to anthropogenic atmospheric iron and nitrogen (3). We also improved the representation of land disturbance on fires and fire mediated carbon cycle feedbacks in the land model (4). Finally we had planned to couple the land, atmosphere and ocean biogeochemical systems (6) and explore how this coupling changes the feedbacks in the climate system. Our work under this proposal was separated into the following 5 tasks: i) improve representation of fire dynamics in both boreal and tropical ecosystems, ii) improve estimates of industrial emissions of iron and phosphorus, iii) improve representation of atmospheric iron, phosphorus and nitrogen transport, chemistry and deposition, iv) improve representation of iron, phosphorus and nitrogen deposition impacts on ocean biogeochemistry, and v) couple emissions into atmosphere, to deposition onto land and ocean biogeochemistry. For all 5 tasks, we conducted offline experiments of the historical period to enable comparison with available aerosol and land surface observations. We had planned to conduct fully coupled simulations, however, these will be conducted as part of the coupling in version 3 and 4 of the E3SM model, and thus have not been completed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Structural Characterisation and DFT-Aided Interpretation of Vibrational Spectra for Cyclo(l-Cys-d-Cys) Cyclic Dipeptide in a Solid State

Cyclic dipeptides with two intramolecular peptide bonds forming a six-membered 2,5-diketopiperazine ring are gaining significant attention due to their biological and chemical properties. Small changes in the local geometry of such molecules (from cis to trans) can lead to significant structural differences. This work presents the results of a study of cyclo(l-Cys-d-Cys), a dipeptide comprising two cysteine molecules in opposite chiral configurations, with the functional groups situated at both sides of the diketopiperazine ring. X-ray diffraction (XRD) experiment revealed that the molecule crystallises in the $P$-1 space group, which includes the centre of inversion. The IR and Raman vibrational spectra of the molecule were acquired and interpreted in terms of the potential energy distribution (PED) according to the results of density functional theory (DFT) calculations. The DFT-assisted analysis of energy frameworks for the hydrogen bond network within molecular crystals was performed to support the interpretation of X-ray structural data. The optimisation of the computational model based on three-molecule geometry sections from the crystallographic structure, selected to appropriately reflect the intermolecular interactions responsible for the formation of 1D molecular tapes in cyclo(l-Cys-d-Cys) crystal, allowed for better correspondence between theoretical and experimental vibrational spectra. This work can be considered the first complete structural characterisation of cyclo(l-Cys-d-Cys), complemented via vibrational spectroscopy results with full band assignment aided with the use of the DFT method.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Generic Post-Closure Safety Assessment for Deep Borehole Disposal of Heat-Generating Waste - 20451

The deep borehole disposal (DBD) concept for high-activity waste consists of drilling a large-diameter borehole into crystalline basement rock to a depth of about 5,000 m, placing waste packages in the lower portion of the borehole - the waste emplacement zone - and sealing and plugging the upper portion of the borehole with a combination of bentonite, cement plugs, and sand or crushed rock ballast. The waste emplacement zone is several times deeper than typical mined repositories and is well below the typical maximum depth of fresh groundwater resources. Recent work describes a generic reference case for deep borehole disposal of Cs and Sr capsules stored at the Hanford Site. Two scenarios are described: an undisturbed (nominal) scenario, and disturbed scenario, in which a waste package is stuck adjacent to a transmissive fracture zone in crystalline basement. Simulations of the processes affecting radionuclide release and transport in the two scenarios provide the basis for quantitative post-closure performance assessment (PA) of the reference case. This paper presents a probabilistic PA of the stuck waste package scenario, i.e. uncertainties affecting radionuclide mobilization and transport are propagated through 200 realizations of a predictive model to quantify uncertainties in predicted radionuclide concentrations within the borehole and the fracture zone. Simulations predict no radionuclide transport in the borehole to distances greater than 100 m above the stuck waste package. An assumed lateral pressure gradient results in predictions of limited radionuclide transport in the fracture zone at a lateral distance of 200 m from the stuck waste package. These results complement previous results for the nominal scenario and contribute to the development of a generic safety case for DBD. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Cybersecurity for Distance Relay Protection

This project is a DOE follow-up effort on the CREDC workshop held on September 13, 2018 in Cambridge, MA to discuss cybersecurity of distance relays, which considered the benefits, vulnerabilities and risk mitigations for the use of communication systems in power system protection. The objectives of this project are to define the taxonomy of relay protection and associated communications; define use cases describing approaches to reduce the cyber-attack surface on those protective relays; and evaluate the loss of operational functional capability from changes to communication coverage. Mitigating controls will also be evaluated to understand if there are other approaches to reduce attack surfaces while maintaining communications or partial communications. Distance relays are used to protect transmission lines of approximately 10 to 300 miles in length, by detecting short circuits (i.e., faults) on the lines and then tripping circuit breakers in the substation. Such protection systems are a subset of the power system and they incorporate sensing, logic and communication functions. Protection system exposure to cyberattack could be drastically limited by disconnecting relays from all vulnerable communication systems, but this may adversely impact overall power system performance in the absence of cyberattack. This project began with a use case analysis of protection systems with communications, as summarized in this report. It continued with modeling, testing and evaluation in a miniature power system (MPS), located in the Western Area Power Administration (WAPA) Electric Power Training Center (EPTC). The project also incorporated feedback from two industry meetings held in February and September 2019. The suggested next steps account for and complement the work already underway with DOE/CESER funding: 1. Study the performance of LCD and PC vs. PUTT, which is less reliant on communication system performance and GPS timing references. The PUTT scheme could prove to be more resilient to cyberattack or communications-related disruption. It could also be more tolerant of message re-routing with SDN/SDR communication systems. On the other hand, it will be more vulnerable to false tripping during dynamic events or to loss of the voltage signal. The optimum choice of scheme may depend on the specific power system and risk assessment. This study could provide a new template for evaluation based on business functions. 2. Research and develop new methods to detect and monitor distributed physical attacks, possibly using drones, video sensors, thermal sensors, machine learning and other advanced techniques. This will help mitigate the impact of cyberattack on the protection system, and will also help mitigate the impact of wild fires. 3. Implement a scalable PKI for use in electric utility protection systems. This will encourage widespread adoption of secure authentication methods that are already available, but not widely used at present. This will help secure engineering access to the relays. 4. Investigate the use of SDN in combination with SDR to achieve better cybersecurity and electromagnetic security of the network, incorporating path variability. This would help secure both engineering access and peer-to-peer GOOSE messaging. 5. Perform additional testing, with operator evaluation of “red button” scenarios, PUTT vs. LCD, relay mis-operations, and other cyberattacks in the EPTC. This is an important advantage of testing in the EPTC rather than by computer simulation or even hardware-in-the-loop simulation; the EPTC is already dedicated to managing the situational awareness, operator response times and other human impacts. One of the project objectives was to settle on a common nomenclature for this problem space. We have concluded that the OSI layer model, supplemented by ANSI device numbers and other IEEE standards, is already well-accepted by the industry. The IEEE PSRC knowledge base provides a great deal of public information

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Raman studies of hydrogen trapped in As 4 O 6 ·2H 2 at high pressure and low temperature

In this work, Raman spectroscopic measurements of the arsenolite–hydrogen inclusion compound As 4 O 6 ·2H 2 were performed in diamond anvil cells at high pressure and variable temperature down to 80 K. The experimental results were complemented by ab initio molecular dynamics simulations and phonon calculations. Observation of three hydrogen vibrons in As 4 O 6 ·2H 2 is reported in the entire temperature and pressure range studied (up to 24 GPa). While the experiments performed with protium and deuterium at variable temperatures allowed for the assignment of two vibrons as Q 1 (1) and Q 1 (0) transitions of ortho and para spin isomers of hydrogen trapped in the inclusion compound, the origin of the third vibron could not be unequivocally established. Low-temperature spectra revealed that the lowest-frequency vibron is actually composed of two overlapping bands of A g and T 2g symmetries dominated by H 2 stretching modes as predicted by our previous density functional theory calculations. We observed low-frequency modes of As 4 O 6 ·2H 2 vibrations dominated by H 2 “librations,” which were missed in a previous study. A low-temperature fine structure was observed for the J = 0 → 2 and J = 1 → 3 manifolds of hydrogen trapped in As 4 O 6 ·2H 2 , indicating the lifting of degeneracy due to an anisotropic environment. A non-spherical distribution was captured by molecular dynamics simulations, which revealed that the trajectory of H 2 molecules is skewed along the crystallographic $\langle$111$\rangle$ direction. Last but not least, low-temperature synchrotron powder x-ray diffraction measurements on As 4 O 6 ·2H 2 revealed that the bulk structure of the compound is preserved down to 5 K at 1.6 GPa.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Southwest Regional Partnership on Carbon Sequestration: Phase III (Final Scientific/Technical Report)

The Southwest Regional Partnership on Carbon Sequestration (SWP) is one of 7 regional partnerships formed in 2003 under the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnerships (RCSPs) initiative. The overall purpose of the initiative was to help determine and implement the technology, infrastructure, and regulations most appropriate to promote carbon storage in different regions of the country. Covering Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Utah, and parts of Texas, Wyoming, and Kansas, the SWP evaluated regional carbon storage and utilization potential and focused on technologies and sites that could complement the region’s strong position in energy production. The project progressed through three phases: • Phase I (2003–2005): Characterized regional geologic formations and CO 2 sources, assessed sequestration potential, and identified pilot test sites. • Phase II (2005–2013): Conducted small-scale field tests to validate sequestration methods, including geologic and terrestrial projects. • Phase III (2008–2022): Demonstrated large-scale CO 2 injection at a commercial oil field to test monitoring, verification, and long-term storage strategies. This report covers Phase III. The final project site, the Farnsworth Unit (FWU) in Texas, provided real-world testing of reservoir characterization, monitoring, and risk evaluation tools and processes that could be used in any commercial scale carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) project. Extensive data collection and analysis helped refine best practices for reservoir characterization, injection monitoring, and storage verification. The SWP contributed to national databases, DOE best practice manuals, and regional geological assessments to support future sequestration efforts. Key lessons learned include the importance of robust data management, strategic site selection, regulatory navigation, and effective industry collaboration. The project’s findings will inform ongoing and future carbon storage initiatives. Task 1 (Regional Characterization) • The SWP continued to participate in national outreach efforts and NATCARB. • The SWP evaluated multiple potential sites before selecting the FWU as the primary field test location. Task 2 (Public Outreach and Education) • The SWP contributed to national databases, DOE best practice manuals, and regional geological assessments to support future sequestration efforts. Task 3 (Permitting and Regulatory Compliance) • The SWP ensured compliance with federal and state regulations, including National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) requirements. • The SWP obtained all necessary permits for drilling, injection, and monitoring activities. Task 4 (Site Characterization and Planning) • The SWP developed work plans for four key activities: characterization, simulation, monitoring and verification, and risk evaluation. • The SWP collected and synthesized legacy data from multiple sources to build initial static geological models and dynamic reservoir models demonstrating project feasibility. • The SWP conducted an initial risk evaluation and developed mitigation plans. Task 5 (Field Operations and Data Collection) • The SWP drilled, logged, and cored three characterization wells to gather critical subsurface data. • The SWP conducted multiple geophysical surveys, including 3D seismic, crosswell seismic, and vertical seismic profiling, to improve reservoir characterization. Task 6 (Monitoring and Verification) • The SWP performed extensive geological characterization using data from characterization wells and seismic surveys. • The SWP established a surface monitoring network to track CO 2 flux in soil gas, groundwater chemistry, and near-surface atmospheric CO 2 levels. • The SWP built and refined reservoir models to study the effects of relative permeability on simulation behavior and improve calibration with experimental data. Task 7 (Risk Assessment and Model Refinement) • The SWP conducted multiple studies to evaluate reservoir integrity, predict CO 2 plume behavior and improve predictive modeling capabilities. • The SWP refined geological models and used them to enhance the accuracy of simulation models. • The SWP continued quantitative risk assessment of top-ranked risks and strengthened the link between qualitative and quantitative risk methodologies.

02 PETROLEUM↗

OPTOM: Optimization of Parabolic Trough - Operations & Maintenance

The US Department of Energy’s SunShot goals look to reduce the cost of Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) technology to 5¢/kWh for baseload plants. This is about a 50% reduction from current costs. To achieve this cost target, a significant reduction in operation and maintenance (O&M) costs of 40 to 50% is likely needed. Advances are needed in the O&M practices of CSP plants if the technology is to achieve the SunShot cost goals. Digitization of plant performance and O&M data has become a new best practice in the world of renewable energy asset management. Owners and operators of large photovoltaic and wind power plants are working to digitize performance and O&M data at their existing assets, to improve their management of the facilities, to increase performance, reduce O&M costs, and lower the overall life cycle cost of ownership. CSP power plants are behind the curve of other technologies on the digitization of plant information to aid in the plant asset management. This project directly addresses the objective of digitizing the O&M data of the solar field, focusing on three areas: 1) creating a framework for sharing data and information, 2) creating a system for monitoring and managing the maintenance of the solar field collectors, and 3) developing analytic tools to identify issues in the solar field. According to the NREL CSP Best Practices Study, the current practice at many CSP plants is to rely on paper lists, spreadsheets, and email for monitoring and managing problems and maintenance in the solar field. The key element to digitize solar field O&M is the creation of a centralized data archive that all users and systems can interface with. This project developed a centralized relational database framework that allows users and applications to access and share data. Conventional power plants utilize Computerized Maintenance Management Systems (CMMSs) to track the corrective, preventive (scheduled), and predictive maintenance of equipment and subsystems in the power plant. CSP plants use these systems in the power block, but while these systems specialize at tracking maintenance on up to thousands of pieces of equipment, they are not well suited for tracking the tens or hundreds of thousands of components in large commercial CSP or photovoltaic solar fields. In this project we developed a new software application referred to as FieldStatus (TM). This is a specialized database program that is used to track the status of each collector and its components. This application is designed to complement the existing CMMS to enable improved tracking and management of maintenance activities in the solar field. One of the major maintenance tasks for solar fields is maintaining the cleanliness of the mirrors. Although seemingly a relatively straight forward task, it has often proven challenging to maintain high levels of cleanliness in an efficient and cost-effective manner. This project developed new tools and metrics for monitoring and optimizing solar field cleaning resources and overall solar field cleanliness.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

First Ever Field Pilot on Alaska's North Slope to Validate the Use of Polymer Floods for Heavy Oil EOR a.k.a Alaska North Slope Field Laboratory (ANSFL)

Alaska’s high viscosity oil resources that range between 20–30+ billion barrels represent about a third of known North Slope original oil in place (OOIP). These resources are primarily concentrated in the Schrader Bluff formation (also called West Sak on the Western North Slope) and Ugnu reservoirs and are categorized as “viscous oils” and “heavy oils” owing to their in-situ viscosities between 5–10,000 cP and up to a million+ cP respectively. The viscous oil deposits are relatively deeper (2,000 – 5,000 ft), whereas the heavy oils are somewhat shallower (2,000 – 4,000 ft). The typically shallow depths and the proximity to the continuous permafrost results in relatively lower formation temperatures and pressures, and consequently higher viscosities. The vertical depth vs. viscosity delineated in Paskvan et al. (2016) differentiates the viscous and heavy oils. As depicted in Paskvan et al. (2016), currently the main focus (referred to as “developing”) is on the viscous oils in the Schrader Bluff formation in the Milne Point Unit (MPU). Notwithstanding this Alaska North Slope (ANS) specific categorization, we use the industry adopted, all-inclusive term “heavy oil” for all high viscosity oils. Resource characterization and additional details can be found in topical publications of Paskvan et al. (2016) and Targac et al. (2005). Despite the vast resource base, the development pace, vis-à-vis the production of heavy oils has been very slow and limited due to multiple factors such as cost, logistics, challenging arctic environment, poor waterflood sweep efficiency due to mobility contrasts, and significantly high minimum miscibility pressures (MMP). Most importantly, typical or standard thermal methods that are commonplace elsewhere (Canada, California) are inapplicable due to the continuous permafrost. As a consequence, cumulative production of heavy and viscous oils is a little over 1% of OOIP slope wide and currently, there is hardly any production from Ugnu. However, on a broader level, these unfavorable factors are outweighed by the fact that (1) these resources, within the established infrastructure, are too large to ignore because of their strategic importance to the Nation and the State of Alaska and (2) Prudhoe Bay type diluent crude oil is still available for heavy oil transport through the Trans Alaska Pipeline System (TAPS). Similarly, from a reservoir standpoint, the following factors also are important offsets: (1) favorable rock characteristics of Schrader Bluff; (2) the promise demonstrated by the initial scoping studies (Seright 2010, 2011) suggesting significant increase of heavy oil recovery using polymer flooding; (3) successful field implementation in Canada, China and elsewhere in the world, and (4) availability of the existing pairs of horizontal injector-producer in Schrader Bluff The foregoing was recognized as the best readily available opportunity for significant investment by the US Department of Energy and the field operator Hilcorp Alaska LLC to conduct the first ever field scale experiment to test the polymer flooding technology to unlock the vast heavy oil resources on ANS. With this primary goal in mind, the research team embarked on a ~4.5 years long project that focused on the field polymer pilot complemented by supporting laboratory and simulation studies. As documented in this final report, over the course of the project, many lessons have been learned and valuable field and supporting laboratory data has been collected, which also is complemented by numerical reservoir simulations. We have been able to establish the injectivity of polymer solution, evidence of significant reduction in the water cut of previously waterflooded pattern, effective propagation of a hydrolyzed polyacrylamide (HPAM), benefits of low salinity water, provide practical guidance on handling of produced fluids containing breakthrough polymer, fit-for-purpose forecast-worthy history matched simulation model, polymer EOR benefit of 700-1000 bopd over waterflood, and most importantly a low polymer utilization factor of ~1.7 lb/stb. In summary this project is deemed as a scientific, technical and economic success, having met all objectives, fulfilled deliverables and within budget, providing impetus to apply polymer EOR throughout the Milne Point Field paving the way for even heavier viscosity oils in the Ugnu area, eventually extending the economic life of TAPS.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Pauling’s rules for oxide-based minerals: A re-examination based on quantum mechanical constraints and modern applications of bond-valence theory to Earth materials

Since their introduction in 1929, Pauling’s five rules have been used by scientists from many disciplines to rationalize and predict stable arrangements of atoms and coordination polyhedra in crystalline solids; amorphous materials such as silicate glasses and melts; nanomaterials, poorly crystalline solids; aqueous cation and anion complexes; and sorption complexes at mineral-aqueous solution interfaces. The predictive power of these simple yet powerful rules was challenged recently by George et al. (2020), who performed a statistical analysis of the performance of Pauling’s five rules for about 5000 oxide crystal structures. They concluded that only 13% of the oxides satisfy the last four rules simultaneously and that the second rule has the most exceptions. They also found that Pauling’s first rule is satisfied for only 66% of the coordination environments tested and concluded that no simple rule linking ionic radius to coordination environment will be predictive due to the variable quality of univalent radii. We address these concerns and discuss quantum mechanical calculations that complement Pauling’s rules, particularly his first (radius sum and radius ratio rule) and second (electrostatic valence rule) rules. We also present a more realistic view of the bonded radii of atoms, derived by determining the local minimum in the electron density distribution measured along trajectories between bonded atoms known as bond paths, i.e., the bond critical point (rc). Electron density at the bond critical point is a quantum mechanical observable that correlates well with Pauling bond strength. Moreover, a metal atom in a polyhedron has as many bonded radii as it has bonded interactions, resulting in metal and O atoms that may not be spherical. O atoms, for example, are not spherical in many oxide-based crystal structures. Instead, the electron density of a bonded oxygen is often highly distorted or polarized, with its bonded radius decreasing systematically from ~1.38 Å when bonded to highly electropositive atoms like sodium to 0.64 Å when bonded to highly electronegative atoms like nitrogen. Bonded radii determined for metal atoms match the Shannon (1976) radii for more electropositive atoms, but the match decreases systematically as the electronegativities of the M atoms increase. As a result, significant departures from the radius ratio rule in the analysis by George et al. (2020) is not surprising. We offer a modified, more fundamental version of Pauling’s first rule and demonstrate that the second rule has a one-to-one connection between the electron density accumulated between the bonded atoms at the bond critical point and the Pauling bond strength of the bonded interaction. Pauling’s second rule implicitly assumes that bond strength is invariant with bond length for a given pair of bonded atoms. Many studies have since shown that this is not the case, and Brown and Shannon (1973) developed an equation and a set of parameters to describe the relation between bond length and bond strength, now redefined as bond valence to avoid confusion with Pauling bond-strength. Brown (1980) used the valence-sum rule, together with the path rule and the valence-matching principle, as the three axioms of bond-valence theory (BVT), a powerful method for understanding many otherwise elusive aspects of crystals and also their participation in dynamic processes. We show how a priori bond-valence calculations can predict unstrained bond-lengths and how bond-valence mapping can locate low-Z atoms in a crystal structure (e.g., Li) or examine possible diffusion pathways for atoms through crystal structures. In addition, we briefly discuss Pauling’s third, fourth, and fifth rules, the first two of which concern the sharing of polyhedron elements (edges and faces) and the common instability associated with structures in which a polyhedron shares an edge or face with another polyhedron and contains high-valence cations. The olivine [α-(MgxFe1–x)2SiO4] crystal structure is used to illustrate the distortions from hexagonal close-packing of O atoms caused by metal-metal repulsion across shared polyhedron edges. We conclude by discussing several applications of BVT to Earth materials, including the use of BVT to: (1) locate H+ ions in crystal structures, including the location of protons in the crystal structures of nominally anhydrous minerals in Earth’s mantle; (2) determine how strongly bonded (usually anionic) structural units interact with weakly bonded (usually cationic) interstitial complexes in complex uranyl-oxide and uranyl-oxysalt minerals using the valence-matching principle; (3) calculate Lewis acid strengths of cations and Lewis base strengths of anions; (4) determine how (H2O) groups can function as bond-valence transformers by dividing one bond into two bonds of half the bond valence; (5) help characterize products of sorption reactions of aqueous cations (e.g., Co2+ and Pb2+) and oxyanions [e.g., selenate (Se6+O4)2- and selenite (Se4+O3)2-] at mineral-aqueous solution interfaces and the important role of protons in these reactions; and (6) help characterize the local coordination environments of highly charged cations (e.g., Zr4+, Ti4+, U4+, U5+, and U6+) in silicate glasses and melts.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗

Scaling Equitable Finance

Driven by dramatic declines in up-front cost, the U.S. solar photovoltaics (PV) industry has taken off over the past decade, growing from 1 gigawatt of installed capacity in 2009 to 89 gigawatts in 2020—or enough capacity to power roughly 19 million homes. The industry is expected to double in size over just the next 5 years.1 Much of the growth has been driven by large, utility-scale projects that can produce 5 mega- watts or more of power—enough to power at least 1,000 homes. The cost of electricity produced by these projects has decreased by more than 70 percent since 2010. As of Q3 2020, development costs of large, util- ity-scale solar PV power plants were under $1 per watt, down by more than 70 percent from 2010.2 A robust array of investors has come forward to efficiently deliver capital to these kinds of utility-scale projects including large banks, insurance companies, pension funds, and others. But low- and moderate-income communities, including communities of color, are at risk of being left behind in the transition to clean energy. Mission- driven solar project developers and financial institu- tions have been working alongside energy justice advocates to open up solar access for these communi- ties, using strategies ranging from community solar, to solar installations on affordable multifamily housing, to distributed solar and storage programs, and more. Their goals go beyond simply generating more green energy to advancing social equity by: • empowering communities to control their energy future • stabilizing energy prices, saving money, and build- ing wealth for low-income families • creating quality jobs • improving health by reducing pollution • providing energy resilience for vulnerable communities Mission-driven actors are successfully deploying a wide variety of strategies to meet these goals, from helping low-income homeowners get solar—and some- times battery storage, to developing solar projects serv- ing affordable rental housing and community facilities, to building larger “shared solar” projects to which households from across the community can subscribe. However, the financing ecosystem does not work nearly as well for these “mission driven” solar proj- ects as it does for utility-scale projects. For home rooftop solar, even if low-income consumers have a home and suitable roof, they may fail to qualify for federal tax incentives, lack adequate credit to qualify for a loan—or the mission-driven lenders seeking to serve them may not be adequately capitalized to make long-term loans. For mission-driven commercial or community-scale projects, assembling nearly every component of the project capital stack—whether bridging early-stage costs, attracting tax credit equity investors, securing long-term debt, or coming up with sponsor equity and filling gaps—can present challenges. A variety of obstacles contribute to the scarcity of financing for low-income solar, including small project sizes, lack of developer balance sheet capacity, both real and perceived issues with credit risk, elevated technical assistance needs, and greater subsidy requirements to pursue goals such as deep energy affordability, climate resilience, or job creation. Still other obstacles are regulatory: for example, not all states allow community solar projects or Power Purchase Agreements, common strategies used for providing low-income solar—and the potential for regulations to shift over time creates risks that mission-driven projects can ill afford. This report synthesizes information garnered from 47 key informant interviews, four focus group discus- sions involving 60 stakeholders, and a review of the substantial existing literature on low-income solar finance to assess the current landscape of mission- driven solar development in the United States, examine the roles that community-based financial institutions could play, and recommend public invest- ments and policy changes that could help to scale the provision of equitable solar finance. Key recommen- dations for policymakers and funders in the renew- able energy and community development fields that emerge from this process include the following: • Help to capitalize and support community-based lenders to provide flexible, low-cost, and long- term financing to mission-driven solar projects— including providing guarantees or other forms of credit enhancement. • Provide federal support for equitable solar, including a grant-in-lieu-of-credits option for the Investment Tax Credit to improve access to this critical government subsidy. • Develop pools of government and philanthropic support that can complement financing from community-based lenders to complete the capi- tal stack for mission-driven projects, as well as to support education and technical assistance to both consumers and potential project sponsors. • Create a national Renewable Energy Credits pro- gram that includes social equity targets to provide a baseline of support for clean energy generation. • Change utility regulations to remove barriers to low-income solar projects; lower permitting costs; provide greater certainty for developers, consumers and owners; and measure progress toward equity in renewable energy policy implementation.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗