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DOE OSTI2020

Real Time Applications Using Linear State Estimation Technology (RTA/LSE)

Electric Power Group, LLC (EPG) was awarded DOE OE0000849 to design, develop, and demonstrate three real-time applications for monitoring power system stability. The applications use phasor measurements and processing by a linear state estimator (LSE) to improve system visibility and accuracy. These applications leverage the large and expanding phasor measurement systems being deployed by utilities throughout the world, and specifically in the United States. Phasor measurements provide a much more detailed view of the power systems than traditional SCADA systems, so can provide better visibility of events and an early warning of developing problems. These three applications are real-time contingency analysis (RTCA), area angle monitoring (AAM), and a voltage stability index (VSI). The project was fully completed as proposed. All three applications were successfully implemented and demonstrated. There were challenges the caused project delays, however. While the RTCA is based on well-known concepts and readily available tools, its deployment using phasor measurements meant it needed to be adapted to sometimes sparse measurements and limited coverage areas. EPG met these challenges with extensive modeling and testing. The AAM is based on unproven research, so EPG had to deal with a lot of unknowns and develop additional methods for practical implementation. These activities took more time than anticipated, so required extra time for development. In addition, there was difficulty getting adequate measurement locations for successful deployment and utility installation delays. Consequently, the project required a time extension to complete. These three real-time applications, RTCA, AAM, and VSI, use only phasor measurement input. Since they do not require the EMS or other measurement systems, they can serve as a backup and security check for the EMS. Phasor measurements are validated and extended by an LSE. The LSE will always produce an output even when some inputs are impaired, so the RT applications will operate even when the EMS state estimator does not converge and the applications it supports cannot function. Consequently, these RT applications can provide valuable additional reliability for control center operation.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2020

GIS-Based Modeling of Contaminated Soil Volumes at Multiple Sites in the Formerly Utilized Sites Remedial Action Program - 20149

The remediation of hazardous, toxic, and radioactive waste (HTRW) sites produces cost-related risks associated with the estimation of contaminated soil or debris volumes. Historical risk-management techniques include cost contingencies to cover volume uncertainties that affect project budgeting and decision-making. The Buffalo District teamed with project partners to lessen volume uncertainty and reduce project risks at multiple HTRW sites managed under the Formerly Utilized Sites Remedial Action Program (FUSRAP). Historical remedial investigations under FUSRAP commonly identified the presence of radiological material in site media, the associated human health risk, and then areas of remediation. To manage remedial execution and reduce risk, pre-design or remediation-phase sampling essentially 'chased' contamination, which was not conducive to efficient predictive budgeting derived from Feasibility Study (FS) cost analyses. The Buffalo District first optimized their approach to better understand volume uncertainty by utilizing the Argonne National Laboratory's Bayesian Approaches for Adaptive Spatial Sampling (BAASS) software [1]. BAASS processed soft data (e.g., gamma walk-over data) and spatial sampling data to estimate the lateral extent of contaminated soil irrespective of depth (i.e., gross contamination extent) and define areas of contaminant uncertainty. The software performed a binary transformation of contaminant concentrations at all sampling points based upon remedial action goals or a sum of ratios approach (i.e., clean, impacted, or range of impacts in soil). The model produced two-dimensional (horizontal) contaminant probability contours and statistical uncertainty in the sampling coverage and resulting contaminant extents. This method was translated vertically by partitioning the sampling data into depth brackets that produced a stacked representation of contaminant extents and uncertainty in the subsurface (i.e., similar to construction lifts). The results commonly led to a better understanding of project uncertainty and the need for sampling strategies that produce high-confidence soil volumes, which control costs. The BAASS-based delineations were eventually replaced by Empirical Bayesian Kriging (EBK) methods available in ArcGIS Spatial or 3D Analysts [2]. The EBK method calculates contaminant probability zones derived from user-controlled semivariograms of the spatial datasets. The resulting probability zones (e.g., 50% or 80% of contaminant probability) represent the two-dimensional surface delineation of the overall horizontal remedial area, similarly to BAASS. However, unlike BAASS, the vertical sampling data within these probability zones became vertical control points to contour a subterranean surface that connects subsurface points to the land-surface delineations of contamination. The resulting representation of horizontal and vertical impacts within an enclosed envelop (volume) of soil included uncertainty distributions that are used to plan uncertainty-reduction sampling. These data-driven and math-based models of three-dimensional sampling results produced well-bounded remedial volumes for project planning and better uncertainty predictions during project budgeting. The EBK method was applied to several FUSRAP sites managed by the Buffalo District and compared to less rigorously modeled sites previously remediated by the District. The comparison of modeled to actual remediated volumes provide a basis for validating the volume-estimation method. This comparison is important to ensure modeled volumes match physical boundaries of site remediation. FUSRAP sites with denser investigative sampling and lesser volume uncertainty proved useful in remedial planning and contracting. The Buffalo District noted that historical sites with sparser sampling arrays had greater disparity between estimated volumes and final remedial volumes. The benefit achieved over the cost of detailed soil sampling appears positive for FUSRAP projects, especially where impacts vary widely and appear unbounded by investigation-phase sampling. The subsequent Empirical Bayesian Kriging of contamination coupled with vertical contouring for soil estimations reduces uncertainty in soil volumes or indicates where sampling is required to reduce uncertainty, which together optimize remedial planning and budgeting. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2021

The phylogenetic roots of addiction: compulsive drug seeking, natural and drug-sensitive reward, and the acquisition of learned habits

Our rational faculties permit us humans to maximize the utility of our actions. We perform a fundamental type of cost-benefit analysis in which we frame a problem, assign values to the different paths, and then choose from among a set of available options, the course that promises the most favorable outcome. So why then does addiction appear to be so impervious to the associated costs, so unaffected by undesired consequences, and ultimately so resistant to cognitive oversight? The answer may likely be found in the fact that the drivers for compulsive drug seeking and drug taking are located in affective brain circuits, circuits that are structured and patterned by learning with repeated activation. These deep processes exhibit significant resistance to control by our cognitive faculties. The general consensus is that addiction arises from mechanisms that overvalue the magnitude of reward, discount the associated risks, and thereby bias individuals towards compulsive pursuit of addictive drugs. Behavioral disruption and dependence appear to arise at the intersection of a number of connected but separate phenomena: expectations for the occurrence of specific events, behaviors that seek encounters with them, the ability to notice and learn nonrandom, co-occurring conditions, the prediction and valuation of consequences, the forming of enduring memories, and the drivers of focused behavior through compulsion, habits, and acquired routines. It is important to recognize that each one of these individual faculties are present and well developed across the entire phylogenetic tree of bilateral metazoans. The goal of this special volume is dedicated to exploring the degree to which inherent elements can account for addiction and addiction-associated phenomena. In much of the literature on addiction, the underlying processes are often viewed as distinctly mammalian, arising, in part, from the strong cognitive capacities of this taxon. Some phenomena may even be regarded to exist only in primates, or even solely in humans. This supposition arises from the fact that studies are conducted almost exclusively in mammals and primates, while evolutionary antecedents of the behavior are rarely considered. A more comprehensive perspective that examines drug reward and reinforcement in a wider range of organisms demonstrates that many of the component traits are actually well developed across the greater metazoan lineage, and they may well predate the emergence of a mammalian clade by a wide margin. The collection of papers assembled here supports the notion that the capacity to associate cues and quences has not arisen in mammals de novo. Rather, the neural mechanisms for detecting contingencies and for predicting future outcomes are very deeply rooted across broad phylogenetic divisions. Our understanding of an ability to associate paired events has been enriched by work in invertebrate preparations in both classical and operant conditioning scenarios [Cook and Carew, 1986, 1989a, 1989b]. The ability to learn allows us to connect cues and behavioral actions to their associated consequences. Pavlovian conditioning enriches surrounding cues with predictive value. Outcomes with positive valence generate appetitive responses and approach to the associated cues, while those perceived as aversive bring cue avoidance and withdrawal. Humans are not the only life forms capable of such short- and long-term modulations of behavior

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Toward Drilling the Perfect Geothermal Well: An International Research Coordination Network for Geothermal Drilling Optimization Supported by Deep Machine Learning and Cloud Based Data Aggregation

The EDGE project, supported by the U.S. Department of Energy Geothermal Technologies Office under award DE-EE0008793, established a data-driven framework for improving the efficiency, cost-effectiveness, and reliability of geothermal well drilling. The project focused on developing scalable data infrastructure, advanced machine learning and probabilistic models, and integrated analytics tools to support continuous drilling optimization. A central objective was to reduce geothermal drilling costs by up to seventy percent while minimizing the risk of well failure through predictive diagnostics and adaptive planning. Over the project period, a comprehensive data repository was designed and deployed, incorporating records from over one hundred geothermal wells across varied geological settings. This repository supported both structured and unstructured data and adhered to FAIR data principles, enabling provenance tracking, quality control, and standardized metadata. The project introduced automated ingestion pipelines and a cloud-hosted platform that facilitated access to raw, processed, and derived datasets. This infrastructure served as the foundation for model development and analysis. Machine learning workflows were developed to predict key drilling metrics including rate of penetration, non-productive time, and total drilling costs. Self-organizing maps and dimensionality reduction methods were used to uncover operational patterns and outliers, while supervised learning algorithms such as random forests and deep neural networks were applied to forecast performance outcomes. The models were validated on heterogeneous datasets from both U.S. and Icelandic fields, demonstrating variable but significant predictive accuracy. The results indicated that finer temporal resolution, inclusion of lithological data, and consistency in operational annotations could substantially improve model performance. The project also implemented process mining techniques to reconstruct state-transition models from drilling event logs. These models enabled the identification of deviations from optimal workflows and provided insights into recurring failure modes. Analysis of non-productive time highlighted the impact of equipment failures, geological challenges, and human factors, offering opportunities for targeted mitigation strategies. The EDGE Dashboard was developed as a web-based expert system integrating data visualization, model outputs, and user-driven queries. It provided an accessible interface for operators to explore historical data, evaluate predicted outcomes, and compare drilling scenarios. Initial feedback from project partners suggested that the dashboard could serve as a foundation for more advanced advisory and optimization tools. Overall, the EDGE project demonstrated the feasibility and value of applying modern data science techniques to geothermal drilling. It delivered a set of interoperable tools and models that can support more efficient, lower-risk well development. The findings point toward a viable path for transitioning from advisory analytics to semi-autonomous drilling systems, contingent on continued collaboration, expanded datasets, and field validation. The project results have immediate relevance for drilling operations, data management practices, and future geothermal R&D efforts aimed at achieving reliable, cost-competitive geothermal energy at scale.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Systems Analysis of Biomass and Coal Co-firing Power Plants with Deep Carbon Capture Toward Net-zero Emissions

Achieving a net-zero emission economy in the United States requires integrating diverse low-carbon and negative-emission technologies into the existing fossil fuel-dominant power fleet. Potential technologies from the low-carbon portfolio include renewable power, fossil power with carbon capture and storage (CCS), bioenergy with CCS (BECCS), and direct air capture (DAC). Renewable power is a clean energy source but has to pair with costly battery storage to provide dispatchable electricity. Fossil power with CCS offers dispatchable electricity yet still relies on DAC to offset residual emissions, even when deploying deep CCS with more than 90% CO2 capture. Coal-biomass co-firing with CCS, a subset of BECCS, is a reliable energy production technology that can be retrofitted from existing electricity generation units (EGUs). Power plant retrofit maximizes the use of the current U.S. coal power fleet without the need for large-scale deployment of new renewable power, battery storage, or DAC. Retrofitting coal-biomass co-firing with deep CCS in EGUs is a promising option, but not a universal solution. Biomass co-firing at a power plant introduces economic challenges and indirectly poses pressure on land and water resources. Meanwhile, retrofitting deep CCS affects plant efficiency and raises electricity generation costs. Overall, the technical feasibility and economic viability of plant retrofits vary across EGUs, as they are contingent upon the regional availability of biomass, unit-specific characteristics, site-specific fuel supply costs, and adjacent CO2 storage potential. Government incentives like 45Q can improve the retrofit viability, though the impact requires further quantification. A comprehensive analysis at the unit level is essential to address the question regarding the fate of the U.S. coal-fired electricity generation fleet toward the net-zero emission goal. This study conducts a systematic techno-economic-environmental assessment of EGUs to identify the viability of biomass co-firing and deep CCS retrofits in the U.S. coal-fired power fleet. Specifically, it characterizes the techno-economic performance of deep carbon capture, estimates life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and conducts a fleet-level assessment on retrofit viability. The key objectives are (1) to estimate the unit-specific performance and retrofitted cost under various biomass co-firing levels and CO2 capture rates; (2) to determine the possibility of reaching net-zero emission at the fleet level; (3) to quantify the cumulative capacities that are suitable for plant retrofits under current and future biomass supply scenarios; and (4) to improve the understanding of policy impacts on such retrofits to help the power sector’s transition to a net-zero economy. Techno-economic Model of Deep Carbon Capture. This study develops the performance and economic models for Monoethanolamine-based post-combustion CO2 capture at 95–99% capture rates. The process is simulated in Aspen Plus, analyzing the performance of carbon capture technology by varying the plant sizes, solvent lean loading, CO2 concentrations, and flue gas inlet temperature. Based on the key inputs and output parameters of CO2 capture, a reduced-order performance model of deep carbon capture is formulated. In addition, an engineering-economic model integrating the performance metrics is developed to estimate the capital as well as operation and maintenance (O&M) costs. Capital cost estimations follow the framework of the Integrated Environmental Control Model (IECM) and incorporate data regressions from three technical reports by IECM, the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. The O&M cost estimation utilizes the actual inventory consumption rate and labor requirements. Both performance and cost models are embedded into IECM v13.0-beta, a fossil-fuel power plant modeling tool. Life Cycle Assessment of Power Plants. This study estimates the GHG emissions of power plants through life cycle assessment (LCA). The LCA scope includes fuel supply, combustion-based power generation, and CO2 transport and storage. The fuel-based life cycle module is designed following the framework of the NETL Unit Process Library and CO2U LCA Guidance Toolkit. The module is then incorporated into IECM v13.0-beta. The process-based LCA is applied to estimate the GHG emissions of coal and biomass supply, coal- and coal-biomass co-firing power plant operation, as well as CO2 pipeline transport and geographical sequestration. An uncertainty analysis is conducted to quantify the variability and uncertainty associated with the LCA using the Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) method. Fleet-level Assessment. This study evaluates the technical and economic feasibility of selected coal-fired EGUs, examines the role of tax credits in retrofit viability, and assesses the competitiveness of retrofitted units against other low-carbon options. Unit screening identifies EGUs for the study, focusing on new, efficient baseload units with air pollution controls. The power plant databases are then established to organize unit-specific information on performance and operating conditions from the relevant public databases. Biomass for co-firing retrofits is selected based on home and neighboring county availability, ensuring sustained operation with at least a 5% co-firing level. The CO2 storage site is determined by state-level storage potential, with ArcGIS Pro and NETL CO2 Saline Storage Cost Model used to identify the optimal balance between the nearest transport distances and affordable storage costs. The latest IECM v13.0-beta is then employed to configure and evaluate the eligible EGUs with or without the deployment of deep CCS and biomass co-firing. A supply curve is established to illustrate the cumulative installed capacity suitable for retrofits at different cost levels. A sensitivity analysis on tax credits for carbon sequestration is performed. Finally, a unit-level cost comparison is conducted among retrofitted plants, renewable power with battery storage, and abated fossil fuels with DAC. Expected Results. This study evaluates the technical, economic, and environmental metrics of each EGU across an array of CO2 capture rates and biomass co-firing level scenarios. Unit-level comparisons will identify critical factors influencing technical performance. The supply curves with and without tax incentives will provide insights into the impact of tax credits on biomass co-firing and CCS deployment. The cost comparisons with renewables and DAC-retrofit will assess the competitiveness of the retrofitted units. Life cycle emissions from each unit will be assessed to identify the scenarios under which net-zero emissions can be achieved. These analyses are expected to determine the total coal-fired capacity suitable for serving as a low-carbon energy source with or without tax incentives. The study results are novel in identifying optimal unit-specific strategies for producing carbon-neutral power, whether through retrofitting EGUs with deep CCS, biomass co-firing, DAC, or installing renewable power with battery. The findings will provide insight into nationwide efforts to ensure reliable, affordable, and low-carbon electricity. It also will inform investment decisions and policies in the deployment of deep carbon capture and negative emission technologies for a net-zero energy future.

Biomass Co-firing↗

DOE OSTI2021

Influence of microstructure on replacement and porosity generation during experimental dolomitization of limestones

Replacement reactions commonly alter the multiscale pore structures of rocks during fluid-rock interactions. Analysis of these processes in various model fluid-rock systems during controlled laboratory experiments provides insights into the origins of microstructures found in natural materials. This study focused on understanding the effects of initial starting material permeability and resultant differences in transport pathways on porosity and mineralogical changes during limestone dolomitization.A series of replacement experiments (32–317 days in duration) have been conducted in which 1.59 cm (5/8 in.) diameter cores of two different limestones were reacted with saturated MgCl2 solutions at 200 °C. The Texas Cream (Austin Chalk) is a high-porosity, high-permeability limestone, whereas both the porosity and permeability of the Carthage Marble (Burlington Limestone) are relatively low. Altered limestones were imaged using scanning electron microscopy with energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (SEM-EDX), Time-of-Flight Secondary Ion Mass Spectrometry (ToF–SIMS) and electron microprobe analysis (EMPA). A representative grain boundary of the low-porosity limestone was targeted for a focused ion beam (FIB) lift-out and characterized using transmission electron microscopy (TEM). These results were coupled with analyses of radial changes in the porosity distribution of the core derived from X-ray and neutron small- and ultra-small angle scattering ((U)SANS/(U)SAXS).The high-porosity/permeability limestone showed a four times faster bulk replacement rate than the lower-porosity/permeability material, and a different mechanism of porosity development. For the low-porosity limestone, a two-stage replacement occurred, with the reacted region of the core consisting of an inner rim in which the limestone was replaced by two calcite-dolomite solid solutions, and an outer rim in which the dolomite was replaced by magnesite. Elongated pores formed along grain boundaries at the initial limestone/dolomite reaction interface, and additional nanometer-scale porosity was formed at the secondary magnesite replacement rim. Grain boundaries were identified as preferential pathways for transport leading to dolomitization and a grain boundary diffusion rate was calculated based on microstructural characterization. In contrast, replacement in the high-porosity limestone was accompanied by porosity generation through replacement of individual grains by dolomite throughout the sample and, in longer runs, magnesite in outer parts of the core. These observations emphasize that both the mechanisms of the replacement reaction and the microstructure and chemistry of the replaced product are contingent on the initial structure of the starting material.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

PV Generation and Load Forecasting for Adjuntas PR Community Microgrids

Existing frameworks to forecast time-series photovoltaic (PV) output power and consumer load for microgrid operations and controls assume a near-continuous availability of real-time input features from the field assets such as PV inverters, energy meters, and weather station. These incoming data points are used to periodically retrain models and update forecast snapshots over a moving horizon window, be it one hour-ahead, one-day ahead, or one-week ahead. However, such frameworks are not resilient to disruptions in data availability caused by losses in communications between the field sensors and data loggers. Hence, there is a need for programs that assume no availability of real-time microgrid asset data and still make reliable forecasts that can be used for decision-making. Such programs would be apt to function in extreme weather events such as hurricanes and would use lightweight recursive time-series models to independently forecast solar irradiance and ambient temperature, then compute PV power from those forecasts, as well as independently forecast consumer load. The codebase performs forecasting for the scenario of when the microgrid does not have a reliable access to forecasts or real-time observations of solar irradiance (I) and ambient temperature (AT) and load (Load) to be able to adequately forecast, in real-time, the PV power production or a business' load. In this case, using historical values of PV power and load, a univariate forecasting of generation and consumption are respectively made. The use-case in particular has two sub-scenarios: one, a normal 7-day ahead forecast where the unavailability of real-time data is assumed due to infrastructure issues such as loss of communication or sensor maintenance or service downtimes. Whereas a hurricane-caused unavailability of real-time data requires a second model trained specifically on historical hurricane days to be able to capture the extreme day behavior of generation in particular, and load if applicable. A gradient boosted regression tree comprises an ensemble of additive models that map between the input of historical values (be it irradiance, temperature, or load) and their corresponding output forecasts of a given horizon such that the individual learner predictions are summed up over the total number of such learners in the ensemble to produce an aggregate forecast. A weighting mechanism is applied to the training data in each iteration, where actual and forecast values are compared to penalize incorrect forecasts by increasing the weight and reducing it to reward correct forecasts. The code's benefits are that it: (a) accounts for a contingency where communication loss renders newly measured real-time data unavailable for model tuning and snapshot updates; (b) presents blind forecasting that recursively determines the next time-step value in a horizon using the forecast of the same attribute from a prior step; and (c) employs lightweight models that, once trained, can reliably generalize for different horizons, which make them suitable for enhancing the resilience of field microgrids prone to extreme events that encounter disruptions to data availability.

Sundararajan, Aditya [Oak Ridge National Laborator↗