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NASA NTRS2002

Forecasting Coronal Mass Ejections from Vector Magnetograms

Identification of active regions from which Earthward halo Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are likely to originate is important both for understanding how CMEs are produced and for prediction of hazardous space weather. In previous work, from a set of 17 MSFC (Marshall Space Flight Center) vector magnetograms of 12 bipolar active regions situated within +/- 2 days of rotation from central meridian, we have evaluated four different measures of the global nonpotentiality of the magnetic field of each active region, and have found that the nonpotentiality of these active regions is strongly correlated with their CME productivity during the time interval of +/- 2 days centered on the day of the magnetogram: strongly nonpotential bipolar active regions are much more likely to produce a CME during this interval that are weakly nonpotential bipolar active regions. To further establish the use of active-region nonpotentiality for forecasting CMEs, we have expanded the sample to 19 additional bipolar active regions, with vector magnetograms taken with the upgraded MSFC vector magnetograph from September 2000 through June 2001 with support from our LWS grant (M. J. Hagyard, PI). The four global measures of nonpotentiality are the length of strong-shear, strong-field main neutral line, the net current, and two other measures of the overall twist in the magnetic field of the active-region bipole. We find: 1) The statistical significance of the correlation of the nonpotentiality of active regions with their CME productivity within +/- 2 days of the day of the magnetogram is greater than 99%. 2) 67% of the strongly nonpotential active regions produced CMEs within the +/- 2 day window, while only 17% of the weakly nonpotential ones did. 3) The statistical significance of the correlation of the nonpotentiality of active regions with their CME productivity during 0-2 days after the day of the magnetogram is about 97%. 4) 42% of the strongly nonpotential active regions produced CMEs within the 0-2 day window, while only 10% of the weakly nonpotential ones did. 5) The four different measures of an active region's nonpotentiality agree most of the time in their classification of the nonpotentiality as strong or weak (75%-90% depending on the pair of measurements). Additional information is included in the original extended abstract.

Moore, R. L.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Filament Eruption without Coronal Mass Ejection

We report characteristics of quiescent filament eruptions that did not produce coronal mass ejections (CMEs). We examined 12 quiescent filament eruptions, each of which was located far from disk center (greater than or equal to 0.7 R (sub sun)) in diffuse remnant magnetic fields of decayed active regions, was well observed in full-disk movies in H alpha and Fe XII, and had good coronagraph coverage. Of the 12 eruptions, 7 produced CMEs and 5 did not. Even though the two kinds of eruption were indistinguishable in their magnetic setting and in the eruptive motion of the filament in the H alpha movies, each of the CME-producing eruptions produced a two-ribbon flare in H alpha and a flare arcade in Fe XII, and each of the non-CME-producing eruptions did not. From this result, and the appearance of the eruptive motion in the Fe XII movies, we conclude that the non-CME-producing filament eruptions are confined eruptions like the confined filament eruptions in active regions. We take the similarity of the confined and eruptive quiescent filament eruptions with their active-region counterparts to favor runaway tether-cutting reconnection for unleashing the magnetic explosion in all these eruptions.

Choudhary, Debi Prasad↗
NASA NTRS2006

On the Rates of Coronal Mass Ejections: Remote Solar and In Situ Observations

We compare the rates of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) as inferred from remote solar observations and interplanetary CMEs (ICMEs) as inferred from in situ observations at both 1 AU and Ulyssses from 1996 through 2004. We also distinguish between those ICMEs that contain a magnetic cloud (MC) and those that do not. While the rates of CMEs and ICMEs track each other well at solar minimum, they diverge significantly in early 1998, during the ascending phase of the solar cycle, with the remote solar observations yielding approximately 20 times more events than are seen at 1 AU. This divergence persists through 2004. A similar divergence occurs between MCs and non-MC ICMEs. We argue that these divergences are due to the birth of midlatitude active regions, which are the sites of a distinct population of CMEs, only partially intercepted by Earth, and we present a simple geometric argument showing that the CME and ICME rates are consistent with one another. We also acknowledge contributions from (1) an increased rate of high-latitude CMEs and (2) focusing effects from the global solar field. While our analysis, coupled with numerical modeling results, generally supports the interpretation that whether one observes a MC within an ICME is sensitive to the trajectory of the spacecraft through the ICME (i.e., an observational selection effect), one result directly contradicts it. Specifically, we find no systematic offset between the latitudinal origin of ICMEs that contain MCs at 1 AU in the ecliptic plane and that of those that do not.

Riley, Pete↗
NASA NTRS2012

The Mechanisms for the Onset and Explosive Eruption of Coronal Mass Ejections and Eruptive Flares

We have investigated the onset and acceleration of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and eruptive flares. To isolate the eruption physics, our study uses the breakout model, which is insensitive to the energy buildup process leading to the eruption. We performed 2.5D simulations with adaptive mesh refinement that achieved the highest overall spatial resolution to date in a CME/eruptive flare simulation. The ultra-high resolution allows us to separate clearly the timing of the various phases of the eruption. Using new computational tools, we have determined the number and evolution of all X- and O-type nulls in the system, thereby tracking both the progress and the products of reconnection throughout the computational domain. Our results show definitively that CME onset is due to the start of fast reconnection at the breakout current sheet. Once this reconnection begins, eruption is inevitable; if this is the only reconnection in the system, however, the eruption will be slow. The explosive CME acceleration is triggered by fast reconnection at the flare current sheet. Our results indicate that the explosive eruption is caused by a resistive instability, not an ideal process. Moreover, both breakout and flare reconnections begin first as a form of weak tearing characterized by a slowly evolving plasmoids, but eventually transition to a fast form with well-defined Alfvenic reconnection jets and rapid flux transfer. This transition to fast reconnection is required for both CME onset and explosive acceleration. We discuss the key implications of our results for CME/flare observations and for theories of magnetic reconnection.

Karpen, Judith T.↗
NASA NTRS2018

STEREO Observations of Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections in 2007-2016

We have conducted a survey of 341 interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) using STEREO A/B data, analyzing their properties while extending a Level 3 product through 2016. Among the 192 ICMEs with distinguishable sheath region and magnetic obstacle, the magnetic field maxima in the two regions are comparable, and the dynamic pressure peaks mostly in the sheath. The north/south direction of the magnetic field does not present any clear relationship between the sheath region and the magnetic obstacle. About 71% of ICMEs are expanding at 1 au, and their expansion speed varies roughly linearly with their maximum speed except for ICMEs faster than 700 km/s. The total pressure generally peaks near the middle of the well-defined magnetic cloud (MC) passage, while it often declines along with the non-MC ICME passage, consistent with our previous interpretation concerning the effects of sampling geometry on what is observed. The hourly average iron charge state reaches above 12+ approx. 31% of the time for MCs, approx. 16% of the time for non-MC ICMEs, and approx. 1% of the time for non- ICME solar wind. In four ICMEs abrupt deviations of the magnetic field from the nominal field rotations occur in the magnetic obstacles, coincident with a brief drop or increase in field strength-features could be related to the interaction with dust. In comparison with the similar phases of solar cycle 23, the STEREO ICMEs in this cycle occur less often and are generally weaker and slower, although their field and pressure compressions weaken less than the background solar wind.

Jian, L. K.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Two-Step Forecast of Geomagnetic Storm Using Coronal Mass Ejection and Solar Wind Condition

To forecast geomagnetic storms, we had examined initially observed parameters of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and introduced an empirical storm forecast model in a previous study. Now we suggest a two-step forecast considering not only CME parameters observed in the solar vicinity but also solar wind conditions near Earth to improve the forecast capability. We consider the empirical solar wind criteria derived in this study (Bz ≤ −5 nT or Ey ≥ 3 mV/m for t ≥ 2 h for moderate storms with minimum Dst less than −50 nT) (i.e. Magnetic Field Magnitude, B (sub z) less than or equal to -5 nanoTeslas or duskward Electrical Field, E (sub y) greater than or equal to 3 millivolts per meter for time greater than or equal to 2 hours for moderate storms with Minimum Disturbance Storm Time, Dst less than -50 nanoTeslas) and a Dst model developed by Temerin and Li (2002, 2006) (TL [i.e. Temerin Li] model). Using 55 CME-Dst pairs during 1997 to 2003, our solar wind criteria produce slightly better forecasts for 31 storm events (90 percent) than the forecasts based on the TL model (87 percent). However, the latter produces better forecasts for 24 nonstorm events (88 percent), while the former correctly forecasts only 71 percent of them. We then performed the two-step forecast. The results are as follows: (i) for 15 events that are incorrectly forecasted using CME parameters, 12 cases (80 percent) can be properly predicted based on solar wind conditions; (ii) if we forecast a storm when both CME and solar wind conditions are satisfied (∩, i.e. cap operator - the intersection set that is comprised of all the elements that are common to both), the critical success index becomes higher than that from the forecast using CME parameters alone, however, only 25 storm events (81 percent) are correctly forecasted; and (iii) if we forecast a storm when either set of these conditions is satisfied (∪, i.e. cup operator - the union set that is comprised of all the elements of either or both), all geomagnetic storms are correctly forecasted.

geomagnetic storm forecast↗
NASA NTRS2003

Rapid Acceleration of a Coronal Mass Ejection in the Low Corona and Implications of Propagation

A high-velocity Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) associated with the 2002 April 21 X1.5 flare is studied using a unique set of observations from the Transition Region and Coronal Explorer (TRACE), the Ultraviolet Coronagraph Spectrometer (UVCS), and the Large-Angle Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO). The event is first observed as a rapid rise in GOES X-rays, followed by simultaneous conjugate footpoint brightenings connected by an ascending loop or flux-rope feature. While expanding, the appearance of the feature remains remarkably constant as it passes through the TRACE 195 A passband and LASCO fields-of-view, allowing its height-time behavior to be accurately determined. An analytic function, having exponential and linear components, is found to represent the height-time evolution of the CME in the range 1.05-26 R. The CME acceleration rises exponentially to approx. 900 km/sq s within approximately 20-min, peaking at approx.1400 m/sq s when the leading edge is at approx. 1.7 R. The acceleration subsequently falls off as a slowly varying exponential for approx.,90-min. At distances beyond approx. 3.4 R, the height-time profile is approximately linear with a constant velocity of approx. 2400 km/s. These results are briefly discussed in light of recent kinematic models of CMEs.

Gallagher, Peter T.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Filament Eruption without Coronal Mass Ejection

We report characteristics of quiescent filament eruptions that were not associated with coronal mass ejections (CMEs). We examined 12 quiescent filament eruptions, each of which was located far from disk center (20.7 R(sub sun)) in diffuse remnant magnetic fields of decayed active regions, was well observed in full-disk movies in Ha and Fe XI, and had good coronagraph coverage. Of the 12 events, 9 were associated with CMEs and 3 were not. Even though the two kinds of eruption were indistinguishable in their magnetic setting and in the eruptive motion of the filament in the Ha movies, each of the CME-producing eruptions produced a two-ribbon flare in Ha and a coronal arcade and/or two-ribbon flare in Fe XII, and each of the non-CME-producing eruptions did not. From this result, and the appearance of the eruptive motion in the Fe XII movies, we conclude that the non-CME-associated filament eruptions are confined eruptions like the confined filament eruptions in active regions.

Choudhary, Debi Prasad↗
NASA NTRS1999

Measurements of Active-Region Global Nonpotentiality for Prediction of Coronal Mass Ejections

We introduce two quantitative measures of the global nonpotentiality of predominantly bipolar active regions and explore their usefulness as indicators of whether an active region is likely to produce coronal mass ejections. The two measures, length of strong-field strong-shear main neutral line (L (sub ss)) and global net current (I (sub N)), are obtained directly from vector magnetograms of the regions. From Marshall Space Flight Center vector magnetograms and Yohkoh Soft X-ray Telescope coronal X-ray images of four active regions, we find that (1) L (sub ss) and I (sub N) are each a useful indicator of an active region's likely CME (Coronal Mass Ejections) productivity, (2) L (sub ss) and I (sub N) may be more reliable predictors of the CME productivity of active regions than is the presence or absence of sigmoidal structure in X-ray images of the regions, and (3) L (sub ss) and I (sub N) may have threshold values above which CME production is likely and below which CME production is unlikely.

Falconer, D. A.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Magnetic Field-Line Lengths in Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections Inferred from Energetic Electron Events

About one quarter of the observed interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) are characterized by enhanced magnetic fields that smoothly rotate in direction over timescales of about 10-50 hr. These ICMEs have the appearance of magnetic flux ropes and are known as "magnetic clouds" (MCs). The total lengths of MC field lines can be determined using solar energetic particles of known speeds when the solar release times and the I AU onset times of the particles are known. A recent examination of about 30 near-relativistic (NR) electron events in and near 8 MCs showed no obvious indication that the field-line lengths were longest near the MC boundaries and shortest at the MC axes or outside the MCs, contrary to the expectations for a flux rope. Here we use the impulsive beamed NR electron events observed with the Electron Proton and Alpha Monitor instrument on the Advanced Composition Explorer spacecraft and type III radio bursts observed on the Wind spacecraft to determine the field-line lengths inside ICMEs included in the catalog of Richardson & Cane. In particular, we extend this technique to ICMEs that are not MCs and compare the field-line lengths inside MCs and non-MC ICMEs with those in the ambient solar wind outside the ICMEs. No significant differences of field-line lengths are found among MCs, ICMEs, and the ambient solar wind. The estimated number of ICME field-line turns is generally smaller than those deduced for flux-rope model fits to MCs. We also find cases in which the electron injections occur in solar active regions CARs) distant from the source ARs of the ICMEs, supporting CME models that require extensive coronal magnetic reconnection with surrounding fields. The field-line lengths are found to be statistically longer for the NR electron events classified as ramps and interpreted as shock injections somewhat delayed from the type III bursts. The path lengths of the remaining spike and pulse electron events are compared with model calculations of solar wind field-line lengths resulting from turbulence and found to be in good agreement.

Kahler, S. W.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Multi-wave band SMM-VLA observations of an M2 flare and an associated coronal mass ejection

Results are presented of observations of an M2 flare and an associated coronal mass ejection CME by instruments on the SMM as well as by the VLA and other ground-based observatories on September 30, 1988. The multiwave band data show a gradual slowly changing event which lasted several hours. The microwave burst emission was found to originate in compact moderately circularly polarized sources located near the sites of bright H-alpha and soft X-ray emission. These data are combined with estimates of an electron temperature of 1.5 x 10 to the 7th K and an emission measure of about 2.0 x 10 to the 49th/cu cm obtained from Ca XIX and Fe XXV spectra to show that the microwave emission can be attributed to thermal gyrosynchrotron radiation in regions where the magnetic field strength is 425-650 G. The CME acceleration at low altitudes is measured on the basis of ground- and space-based coronagraphs.

Willson, Robert F.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Acceleration of energetic particles which accompany coronal mass ejections

The causal association of major solar particle events seen at earth with coronal mass ejections (CME's), and not with solar flares, is discussed. Evidence that led to the demise of the flare dominated paradigm for major solar energetic particle events are described. The possibility of distinguishing particles from impulsive and gradual events using only observations is described. Particle acceleration at the CME level is discussed. Multi-spacecraft observations of CME events are described. Concerning the interplanetary CME, bidirectional proton events are discussed. Conclusions from progress in understanding the characteristics of solar energetic particles and their relation to the physical mechanisms of acceleration are given.

Reames, Donald V.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Overexpanding Coronal Mass Ejections at High Heliographic Latitudes: Observations and Simulations

Ulysses observations reveal that most coronal mass ejections (CMES) observed in the solar wind far from the Sun at high heliographic latitudes have large radial widths and are still expanding as they pass the spacecraft. CME radial widths ranging between 0.5 and 2.5 AU have observed at heliocentric distances between 1.4 and 4.6 AU and at latitudes greater than 22 deg. A CME may expand simply because it is ejected from the Sun with a leading edge speed that is greater than its trailing edge speed. Rarefaction waves produced by relative motion between a CME and the surrounding wind also can cause a CME to expand. Finally, a CME may expand because it is ejected into the wind with an internal pressure that is greater than that of the surrounding wind. In the latter case, which we have called 'overexpansion,' the expansion tends to drive compressive waves into the surrounding solar wind; these waves commonly steepen into shocks at large distances from the Sun. The relative importance of these various expansion processes differs from event to event depending upon initial conditions within the CME and the surrounding wind. Using Ulysses observations and a simple one-dimensional, gasdynamic code, we have explored how initial conditions affect the radial evolution of solar wind disturbances associated with overexpanding CMES. We find good qualitative agreement between the results of our simulations and Ulysses observations of such disturbances.

Gosling, J. T.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Energetic Correlation Between Solar Flares and Coronal Mass Ejections

We find a strong correlation between the kinetic energies (KEs) of the coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and the radiated energies of the associated solar flares for the events that occurred during the period of intense solar activity between 18 October and 08 November 2003. CME start times, speeds, mass and KEs were taken from Gopalswamy et al. (2005), who used SOHO/LASCO observations. The GOES observations of the associated flares were analyzed to find the peak soft X-ray (SXR) flux, the radiated energy in SXRs (L(sub sxR)), and the radiated energy from the emitting plasma across all wavelengths (L(sub hot)). RHESSI observations were also used to find the energy in non-thermal electrons, ions, and the plasma thermal energy for some events. For two events, SORCE/TIM observations of the total solar irradiance during a flare were also available to give the total radiated flare energy (L(sub total)).W e find that the total flare energies of the larger events are of the same order of magnitude as the CME KE with a stronger correlation than has been found in the past for other time intervals.

Dennis, Brian R.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Remote and In Situ Observations of an Unusual Earth-Directed Coronal Mass Ejection from Multiple Viewpoints

During June 16-21, 2010, an Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) event was observed by instruments onboard STEREO, SOHO, MESSENGER and Wind. This event was the first direct detection of a rotating CME in the middle and outer corona. Here, we carry out a comprehensive analysis of the evolution of the CME in the interplanetary medium comparing in-situ and remote observations, with analytical models and three-dimensional reconstructions. In particular, we investigate the parallel and perpendicular cross section expansion of the CME from the corona through the heliosphere up to 1 AU. We use height-time measurements and the Gradual Cylindrical Shell (GCS) technique to model the imaging observations, remove the projection effects, and derive the 3-dimensional extent of the event. Then, we compare the results with in-situ analytical Magnetic Cloud (MC) models, and with geometrical predictions from past works. We nd that the parallel (along the propagation plane) cross section expansion agrees well with the in-situ model and with the Bothmer & Schwenn [1998] empirical relationship based on in-situ observations between 0.3 and 1 AU. Our results effectively extend this empirical relationship to about 5 solar radii. The expansion of the perpendicular diameter agrees very well with the in-situ results at MESSENGER ( 0:5 AU) but not at 1 AU. We also find a slightly different, from Bothmer & Schwenn [1998], empirical relationship for the perpendicular expansion. More importantly, we find no evidence that the CME undergoes a significant latitudinal over-expansion as it is commonly assumed

Nieves-Chinchilla, T.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Coronal mass ejections observed during the solar maximum mission - Latitude distribution and rate of occurrence

Sixty-five coronal mass ejections have been identified in a systematic examination of white-light coronal images obtained between March and September 1980 by the coronagraph/polarimeter flown on the solar maximum mission spacecraft. These ejections were more uniformly distributed in position angle (or 'projected' solar latitude) than the similar events observed during the Skylab mission in 1973-1974; 27 percent of the solar maximum mission mass ejections were centered at positions more than 45 deg from the solar equator. The average rate of occurrence of the observed mass ejections for the entire solar maximum mission epoch, based on the assumption that one coronagraph image per spacecraft orbit is sufficient for detection, was 0.9 + or 0.15 per 24-hour day. Application of the same sampling assumption to the Skylab data set leads to a rate of 0.75 per 24-hour day and thus a change in this rate from the Skylab era (on the declining phase of sunspot cycle 20) to solar maximum mission (near the maximum of sunspot cycle 21) of only approximately 20 percent.

Hundhausen, A. J.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Solar system storms in the lab: creating a scaled interplanetary coronal mass ejection

As an active star, the Sun frequently ejects large systems of magnetized plasma called Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections (ICMEs). When these ICMEs reach Earth, they cause geomagnetic storms, and, depending on their intensity, can wreak havoc on modern society [3]. In this project, we designed, executed, and diagnosed a proof-of-principle experiment aimed at studying ICMEs in a laboratory setting.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
NASA NTRS2017

Genesis Solar Wind Interstream, Coronal Hole and Coronal Mass Ejection Samples: Update on Availability and Condition

Recent refinement of analysis of ACE/SWICS data (Advanced Composition Explorer/Solar Wind Ion Composition Spectrometer) and of onboard data for Genesis Discovery Mission of 3 regimes of solar wind at Earth-Sun L1 make it an appropriate time to update the availability and condition of Genesis samples specifically collected in these three regimes and currently curated at Johnson Space Center. ACE/SWICS spacecraft data indicate that solar wind flow types emanating from the interstream regions, from coronal holes and from coronal mass ejections are elementally and isotopically fractionated in different ways from the solar photosphere, and that correction of solar wind values to photosphere values is non-trivial. Returned Genesis solar wind samples captured very different kinds of information about these three regimes than spacecraft data. Samples were collected from 11/30/2001 to 4/1/2004 on the declining phase of solar cycle 23. Meshik, et al is an example of precision attainable. Earlier high precision laboratory analyses of noble gases collected in the interstream, coronal hole and coronal mass ejection regimes speak to degree of fractionation in solar wind formation and models that laboratory data support. The current availability and condition of samples captured on collector plates during interstream slow solar wind, coronal hole high speed solar wind and coronal mass ejections are de-scribed here for potential users of these samples.

Allton, J. H.↗