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NASA NTRS1994

Evaluation of sensor placement algorithms for on-orbit identification of space platforms

Anticipating the construction of the international space station, on-orbit modal identification of space platforms through optimally placed accelerometers is an area of recent activity. Unwanted vibrations in the platform could affect the results of experiments which are planned. Therefore, it is important that sensors (accelerometers) be strategically placed to identify the amount and extent of these unwanted vibrations, and to validate the mathematical models used to predict the loads and dynamic response. Due to cost, installation, and data management issues, only a limited number of sensors will be available for placement. This work evaluates and compares four representative sensor placement algorithms for modal identification. Most of the sensor placement work to date has employed only numerical simulations for comparison. This work uses experimental data from a fully-instrumented truss structure which was one of a series of structures designed for research in dynamic scale model ground testing of large space structures at NASA Langley Research Center. Results from this comparison show that for this cantilevered structure, the algorithm based on Guyan reduction is rated slightly better than that based on Effective Independence.

Glassburn, Robin S.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Flight Test Identification and Simulation of a UH-60A Helicopter and Slung Load

Helicopter slung-load operations are common in both military and civil contexts. Helicopters and loads are often qualified for these operations by means of flight tests, which can be expensive and time consuming. There is significant potential to reduce such costs both through revisions in flight-test methods and by using validated simulation models. To these ends, flight tests were conducted at Moffett Field to demonstrate the identification of key dynamic parameters during flight tests (aircraft stability margins and handling-qualities parameters, and load pendulum stability), and to accumulate a data base for simulation development and validation. The test aircraft was a UH-60A Black Hawk, and the primary test load was an instrumented 8- by 6- by 6-ft cargo container. Tests were focused on the lateral and longitudinal axes, which are the axes most affected by the load pendulum modes in the frequency range of interest for handling qualities; tests were conducted at airspeeds from hover to 80 knots. Using telemetered data, the dynamic parameters were evaluated in near real time after each test airspeed and before clearing the aircraft to the next test point. These computations were completed in under 1 min. A simulation model was implemented by integrating an advanced model of the UH-60A aerodynamics, dynamic equations for the two-body slung-load system, and load static aerodynamics obtained from wind-tunnel measurements. Comparisons with flight data for the helicopter alone and with a slung load showed good overall agreement for all parameters and test points; however, unmodeled secondary dynamic losses around 2 Hz were found in the helicopter model and they resulted in conservative stability margin estimates.

Cicolani, Luigi S.↗

NASA NTRS2026

PROTECT: Production and Reuse of Thermally Efficient Ceramic Thermal Protection Systems

PROTECT (Production and Reuse Of Thermally Efficient Ceramic TPS) is a NASA Early Career Initiative focused on developing the next generation of reusable ceramic thermal protection systems (TPS). This project addresses key challenges in TPS design, including temperature capability, thermal stability, and refurbishment time, by integrating novel material development with predictive modeling. Leveraging enhanced capabilities in NASA’s Porous Microstructure Analysis (PuMA) software, PROTECT introduces new modeling tools to predict the thermal and mechanical behavior of fibrous ceramic materials. These tools enable accurate prediction of performance metrics such as thermal conductivity and structural integrity, reducing reliance on costly physical testing. Preliminary advances in these areas will be presented. To support model validation, PROTECT is building a comprehensive database of raw material properties using advanced characterization techniques, including micro computed tomography (CT) scanning in collaboration with the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign (UIUC). The presentation will detail the sampling workflows and analysis methods used to generate this detailed microstructural data and how it is used to develop improved models in PuMA. This multi-center collaboration, spanning NASA (JSC, ARC, KSC, GRC), Oak Ridge National Laboratory, UIUC, and SpaceX, is developing tailored TPS solutions for LEO, lunar, and Martian missions. By bridging heritage systems with the demands of modern spaceflight, PROTECT contributes to the advancement of reusable TPS technologies for future exploration missions.

Propulsion, Refractory, and Coating Materials↗

NASA NTRS2026

PROTECT: Production and Reuse of Thermally Efficient Ceramic Thermal Protection Systems

Propulsion, Refractory, and Coating Materials↗

DOE OSTI2022

Recent Improvements in PV+Battery Modeling in NREL's System Advisor Model

This poster covers recent updates to the NREL System Advisor Model's battery model that can be coupled to the PV model to add value to both front of meter and behind the meter systems. Topics include new dispatch algorithms focusing on smoothing the output of a PV plant to meet ramp rate requirements and responding to price signals to maximize system revenue, validated battery lifetime models, grid outage simulations and resiliency metrics, and the new levelized cost of storage (LCOS) metric. We will also share preliminary results from NREL analysis projects using these features.

battery↗

DOE OSTI2023

Energy Model to Evaluate Thermal Energy Storage Integrated with Air Source Heat Pumps: Preprint

Full decarbonization in buildings requires the replacement of combustion appliances with electric ones, and air source heat pumps (ASHP) are a candidate alternative. However, technical limitations, such as the efficiency decrease when operating in cold weather, limit their adoption in the global heating market. Among several options to improve ASHP efficiency operating in colder climates, thermal energy storage (TES) has been considered, as it may provide heating when it is cold and shift ASHP operation to times when the weather is warmer. It may also take advantage of time of use electricity rates and support defrosting when necessary. The evaluation of ASHP-TES systems, however, is still limited because traditional metrics do not capture their full economic and environmental benefits. In this work, a python framework is presented to model the ASHP with and without the presence of TES. Metrics are proposed to analyze the system performance in terms of costs, equivalent CO2 emission, and efficiency metrics to evaluate and compare alternative systems. Model validation against experimental data obtained for a commercial heat pump is provided, as well as an application example using Denver, Colorado, to highlight the model capabilities.

cold climate↗

DOE OSTI2024

Optimal Stopping Ages for Colorectal Cancer Screening

Importance Prior studies have shown that the benefits, harms, and costs of colorectal cancer (CRC) screening at older ages are associated with a patient’s sex, health, and screening history. However, these studies were hypothetical exercises and not directly informed by data on CRC risk. Objective To identify the optimal stopping ages for CRC screening by sex, comorbidity, and screening history from a cost-effectiveness perspective. Design, Setting, and Participants This economic evaluation first validated the MISCAN-Colon (Microsimulation Screening Analysis–Colon) model against community-based CRC incidence and mortality rates for 2 subcohorts of the PRECISE (Optimizing Colorectal Cancer Screening Precision and Outcomes in Community-Based Populations) cohort. Subsequently, different CRC screening scenarios were simulated in older individuals. Cohorts of US adults aged 76 to 90 years varied by sex and comorbidity status (none, low, moderate, or severe). Statistical and sensitivity analyses were performed from March 2023 to May 2024. Exposures CRC screening histories including fecal immunochemical test (FIT) or colonoscopy, such as a negative colonoscopy result from 10, 15, 20, 25, or 30 years before the index age; 1 to 5 negative FIT results within 5 years of the index age, with different patterns of recency; or a combination of negative colonoscopy and negative FIT results. Main Outcomes and Measures The main outcomes included estimated lifetime clinical outcomes, incremental costs, and quality-adjusted life-years gained (QALYG) associated with 1 additional FIT or colonoscopy. Optimal stopping age for screening, defined as the oldest age for which the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was still below the willingness-to-pay threshold of $\$$100 000 per QALYG, was evaluated. Results The first of the 2 PRECISE subcohorts used in validating the simulation model included 25 974 adults (15 060 females [58.0%]; 54.7% aged 76 to 80 years) with a negative colonoscopy result 10 years before the index date. The second subcohort consisted of 118 269 adults (67 058 females [56.7%]; 90.5% aged 76 to 80 years) with a negative FIT result 1 year before the index date. Older age, male sex, higher comorbidity levels, and recent CRC screenings were associated with reduced incremental benefit and cost-effectiveness of additional screening. For the reference cohort of 76-year-old females without comorbidities and a negative colonoscopy result 10 years before the index age, 1 additional colonoscopy cost $\$$38 226 per QALYG. For cohorts with otherwise equivalent characteristics, associated costs increased to $\$$1 689 945 per QALYG for females at age 90 years without comorbidities and a negative colonoscopy results 10 years before the index age, $\$$51 604 per QALYG for males at age 76 years without comorbidities and a negative colonoscopy result 10 years before the index age, and $\$$108 480 per QALYG for females at age 76 years with severe comorbidities and a negative colonoscopy result 10 years before the index age and decreased to $\$$16 870 per QALYG for females without comorbidities and a negative colonoscopy result 30 years before the index age. The optimal stopping ages across different cohorts ranged from younger than 76 to 86 years for colonoscopy and younger than 76 to 88 years for FIT. Conclusions and Relevance In this economic evaluation, age, sex, screening history, comorbidity, and future screening modality were associated with the clinical outcomes, cost-effectiveness, and optimal stopping age for CRC screening. These results can inform guideline development and patient-directed informed decision-making.

Harlass, Matthias [Erasmus Erasmus University Medi↗

DOE OSTI2022

Machine-Learning Accelerated Studies of Materials with High Performance and Edge Computing

In the studies of materials, experimental measurements often serve as the reference to verify physics theory and modeling; while theory and modeling provide a fundamental understanding of the physics and principles behind. However, the interactions and cross validation between them have long been a challenge even to-date. Not only that inferring a physics model from experimental data is itself a difficult inverse problem, another major challenge is the orders-of-magnitude longer wall-clock time required to carry out high-fidelity computer modeling to match the timescale of experiments. We envisage that by combining high performance computing, data science, and edge computing technology, the current predicament can be alleviated, and a new paradigm of data-driven physics research will open up. For example, we can accelerate computer simulations by first performing the large-scale modeling on high performance computers and train a machine-learned surrogate model. This computationally inexpensive surrogate model can then be transferred to the computing units residing closely to the experimental facilities to perform high-fidelity simulations at a much higher throughout. The model will also be more amenable to analyzing and validating experimental observations in comparable time scales at a much lower computational cost. Further integration of these accelerated computer simulations with an outer machine learning loop can also inform and direct future experiments, while making the inverse problem of physics model inference more tractable. We will demonstrate a proof-of-concept by using a quantum Monte Carlo application, Dynamical Cluster Approximation (DCA++), to machine-learn a surrogate model and accelerate the study of quantum correlated materials.

Li, Ying Wai↗

NASA NTRS2007

System Engineering Strategy for Distributed Multi-Purpose Simulation Architectures

This paper describes the system engineering approach used to develop distributed multi-purpose simulations. The multi-purpose simulation architecture focuses on user needs, operations, flexibility, cost and maintenance. This approach was used to develop an International Space Station (ISS) simulator, which is called the International Space Station Integrated Simulation (ISIS)1. The ISIS runs unmodified ISS flight software, system models, and the astronaut command and control interface in an open system design that allows for rapid integration of multiple ISS models. The initial intent of ISIS was to provide a distributed system that allows access to ISS flight software and models for the creation, test, and validation of crew and ground controller procedures. This capability reduces the cost and scheduling issues associated with utilizing standalone simulators in fixed locations, and facilitates discovering unknowns and errors earlier in the development lifecycle. Since its inception, the flexible architecture of the ISIS has allowed its purpose to evolve to include ground operator system and display training, flight software modification testing, and as a realistic test bed for Exploration automation technology research and development.

Bhula, Dlilpkumar↗

DOE OSTI2020

Geothermal Deep Direct Use for Turbine Inlet Cooling in East Texas

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), the Southern Methodist University Geothermal Laboratory (SMU), Eastman Chemical (Longview, TX), and TAS (Houston, TX) evaluated the feasibility of using geothermal heat to improve the performance of a natural-gas power plant in East Texas. The area of interest is the Eastman Chemical plant in Longview, Texas, which is on the northwestern margin of a geologic region known as the Sabine Uplift. The feasibility study focused on determining the potential for accessing a subsurface hot-water geothermal resource within a 10-km radius of the site to provide thermal energy for absorption chillers. Wells within a 20-km radius are included for broader geological comparison to determine the heat flow, temperature-at-depth, field porosity and permeability. The lithologies of most interest are the Lower Cretaceous Trinity Group and Upper Jurassic Cotton Valley Group. The deeper Cotton Valley formations are hotter (averaging 117 to 130°C), yet permeability and porosity are low. The shallower Trinity Group contains more variability in permeability and porosity and lower temperatures averaging about 98 to 117°C. The shallower formations are considered despite the lower temperature because of increased ability to produce larger volumes of water and extract enough heat before reinjection. The complete SMU analysis is available in the National Geothermal Data System (NGDS). Tapping such deep geothermal sources for direct heating (as opposed to power generation) is known as geothermal deep direct use (DDU). Geothermal DDU has potential across a wide swath of the United States but is underutilized due to challenging project economics associated with developing a deep geothermal resource for what are typically small-scale, variable-demand projects. This project examines the feasibility of geothermal energy integration in a natural-gas combined cycle power station in East Texas. The DDU resource is tapped to drive absorption chillers (24/7) for production of chilled water at 5-10°C (41-50°F). This chilled water is stored until needed, which allows for continuous operation with a relatively small-capacity geothermal/absorption chiller system. When conditions are favorable, the chilled water is dispatched to cool the air entering the compressor stage of a gas combustion turbine. This process, known as turbine inlet cooling (TIC), boosts power production during periods of high temperature and high-power demand. Such systems can enhance grid reliability and reduce the cost for peak-demand power. A simulation model of the power plant was developed in IPSEpro software and validated against operational data from the plant. This model allowed the team to estimate the additional power that could be produced by applying TIC under different operating and ambient conditions. Absorption chiller performance was estimated from vendor sources to determine the production rate of chilled water from the geothermal resource. Geothermal drilling and development costs were estimated using NREL's GEOPHIRES 2.0. The expected lower drilling costs in this region led to an estimated cost of geothermal heat of about $4/MMBtu (1.4 cents/kWh t ). The estimated cost for the absorption chillers and TIC hardware were obtained from literature sources and project partners. Hourly data were obtained for weather, natural gas and electricity prices, and plant operating state for 2017, which served as a representative year. NREL estimated the capital cost, operating cost, and additional electricity production and revenue for different combinations of geothermal capacity, chiller capacity, and water storage-tank size. The analysis drove toward smaller geothermal and chiller systems to reduce equipment cost. A relatively low-cost water storage tank accumulated the near-continuous chilled water output for later use when TIC was most valued.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Validation of the Porous Medium Approximation for Hydrodynamics Analysis in Compact Heat Exchangers

Compact heat exchangers (HXs) have gained attention in recent years in various fields such as solar and nuclear power generation, oil and gas, and refrigeration due to their low cost, high power density, and robustness in high-pressure and/or high-temperature environments. However, the large difference between a compact HX's overall dimensions (~m) and the much smaller scale of its channels (~mm) makes it challenging to model the entire HX at once, due to computational limitations. In this work, we treat the channeled region of a compact HX as a porous medium (PM) to circumvent the need to model/mesh each individual channel. This allows us to simulate the entire HX, including both the header and channeled regions while maintaining the computational cost at a practical level. Although the porous medium approach has been used to model heat exchangers, its validity is still questionable because (1) the resistance coefficients are heavily data-based and thus difficult to be applied to new heat exchangers and (2) the validation has been focused on matching the overall pressure drop in the channel region, which does not address whether such model can predict detailed pressure and velocity field. For the first time, this work addresses under what circumstances and with what uncertainty does the PM approach work for hydrodynamics modeling in compact HXs. By answering these questions, we introduce the PM approach as a powerful tool for HX hydrodynamics modeling that can predict not only the overall pressure drop but also the detailed pressure and velocity distributions.

Engineering↗

DOE OSTI2023

Cummins R-SOFC System Development

The overall purpose of this project was to reduce the Reversible-Solid Oxide Fuel Cell (R-SOFC) system cost by developing two technologies, an improved cell design and the incorporation of an ejector in the fuel recycle loop instead of a blower. A Simulink model of the baseline SOFC system was developed and calibrated with experimental test data. The R-SOFC system model was built by integrating GT Suite developed models of the steam generation components into the baseline Simulink SOFC system model. The ability to run the stack in SOEC operating mode was also added to the model. The system model was used to explore the ability of the R-SOFC system to meet operational constraints on Steam/Carbon ratio and H2 concentration on the fuel side electrode. A CFD ejector model was developed and used to explore a range of ejector design parameters, leading to the final ejector design that was prototyped for testing. A prototype steam ejector was first tested in a laboratory environment using room temperature air. The steam ejector was subsequently tested using the full hot recycle loop with all relevant heat exchangers and steam generation components. The test conditions utilized temperatures, pressures, and flow rates expected in an R-SOFC application. Throughout the experimental testing work, ejector performance test data was used to improve and then validate the CFD ejector model. A CFD cell model was developed and used to optimize thermal gradients, voltage, and cost of a new cell substrate design. A CFD comparison of co-flow and cross-flow cell designs informed the decision to use a co-flow design for the new cell substrate. Multiple rounds of CFD simulation were used to improve the cell design to minimize the variation in air and fuel distribution across cell channels and to minimize the variation in air and fuel distribution across different cells in the stack. A few prototypes of the new cell substrate design were produced and validated in a laboratory environment by thermally spraying and verifying that they met established manufacturing specifications. The cell manufacturing process was adjusted in order to bring these metrics within acceptable tolerances. Cummins’ internal calculations show that the new cell design reduces cost ~50% compared to the baseline cell, while the ejector + superheater/boiler concept reduces cost of the recycle loop by ~40%. The impact of these cost reductions on the cost of producing H2 will depend on the specific system where they are applied. Therefore, a Techno-Economic Analysis was completed using system cost as a variable, and showing how the NREL Current and Future system costs translate into H2 production cost.

Henrichsen, Lars↗

DOE OSTI2025

Axial Gas Communication Modeling

Overview presentation of axial gas communication development and validation from a TCF project. EPRI, our industry cost-share partners has asked that we present on this topic at the upcoming CRAFT meeting.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

NASA NTRS1989

Test and validation for robot arm control dynamics simulation

The Flight Telerobotic Servicer (FTS) program will require an ability to develop, in a cost effective manner, many simulation models for design, analysis, performance evaluation, and crew training. Computational speed and the degree of modeling fidelity associated with each simulation must be commensurate with problem objectives. To demonstrate evolving state-of-the-art general purpose multibody modeling capabilities, to validate these by laboratory testing, and to expose their modeling shortcomings, two focus problems at the opposite ends of the simulation spectrum are defined: (1) Coarse Acquisition Control Dynamics. Create a real time man-in-the-control-loop simulator. Provide animated graphical display of robot arm dynamics and tactile feedback sufficient for cueing the operator. Interface simulator software with human operated tactile feedback controller; i.e., the Kraft mini-master. (2) Fine, Precision Mode Control Dynamics. Create a high speed, high fidelity simulation model for the design, analysis, and performance evaluation of autonomous 7 degree-of-freedom (DOF) trajectory control algorithms. This model must contain detail dynamic models for all significant dynamics elements within the robot arm, such as joint drive mechanisms.

Yae, K. Harold↗

NASA NTRS1990

Optimal stabilization of discrete event systems

An optimal stabilization problem for discrete event systems (DES) is addressed. A class of not necessarily finite state 'logical' DES models is utilized which can also model the costs for events to occur. Let P and A denote two such models. Suppose that P characterizes the valid behavior of a dynamical system and A represents certain design objectives which specify the allowable DES behavior which is 'contained in' the valid behavior. An optimal control problem for P and A is how to choose the sequence of inputs to P so that the DES behavior lies in A (i.e., it is allowable) and so that a performance index defined in terms of the costs of the events is minimized. Two solutions are provided to an optimal stabilization problem, i.e. how to find a sequence of inputs that results in an optimal state trajectory which cycles in a pre-specified set.

Passino, Kevin M.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Processing Aleatory and Epistemic Uncertainties in Experimental Data From Sparse Replicate Tests of Stochastic Systems for Real-Space Model Validation

This paper presents a practical methodology for propagating and processing uncertainties associated with random measurement and estimation errors (that vary from test-to-test) and systematic measurement and estimation errors (uncertain but similar from test-to-test) in inputs and outputs of replicate tests to characterize response variability of stochastically varying test units. Also treated are test condition control variability from test-to-test and sampling uncertainty due to limited numbers of replicate tests. These aleatory variabilities and epistemic uncertainties result in uncertainty on computed statistics of output response quantities. The methodology was developed in the context of processing experimental data for “real-space” (RS) model validation comparisons against model-predicted statistics and uncertainty thereof. The methodology is flexible and sufficient for many types of experimental and data uncertainty, offering the most extensive data uncertainty quantification (UQ) treatment of any model validation method the authors are aware of. It handles both interval and probabilistic uncertainty descriptions and can be performed with relatively little computational cost through use of simple and effective dimension- and order-adaptive polynomial response surfaces in a Monte Carlo (MC) uncertainty propagation approach. A key feature of the progressively upgraded response surfaces is that they enable estimation of propagation error contributed by the surrogate model. Sensitivity analysis of the relative contributions of the various uncertainty sources to the total uncertainty of statistical estimates is also presented. Finally, the methodologies are demonstrated on real experimental validation data involving all the mentioned sources and types of error and uncertainty in five replicate tests of pressure vessels heated and pressurized to failure. Simple spreadsheet procedures are used for all processing operations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Predicting Intensive Care Unit Length of Stay and Mortality Using Patient Vital Signs: Machine Learning Model Development and Validation

Background: Patient monitoring is vital in all stages of care. In particular, intensive care unit (ICU) patient monitoring has the potential to reduce complications and morbidity, and to increase the quality of care by enabling hospitals to deliver higher-quality, cost-effective patient care, and improve the quality of medical services in the ICU. Objective: We here report the development and validation of ICU length of stay and mortality prediction models. The models will be used in an intelligent ICU patient monitoring module of an Intelligent Remote Patient Monitoring (IRPM) framework that monitors the health status of patients, and generates timely alerts, maneuver guidance, or reports when adverse medical conditions are predicted. Methods: We utilized the publicly available Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC) database to extract ICU stay data for adult patients to build two prediction models: one for mortality prediction and another for ICU length of stay. For the mortality model, we applied six commonly used machine learning (ML) binary classification algorithms for predicting the discharge status (survived or not). For the length of stay model, we applied the same six ML algorithms for binary classification using the median patient population ICU stay of 2.64 days. For the regression-based classification, we used two ML algorithms for predicting the number of days. We built two variations of each prediction model: one using 12 baseline demographic and vital sign features, and the other based on our proposed quantiles approach, in which we use 21 extra features engineered from the baseline vital sign features, including their modified means, standard deviations, and quantile percentages. Results: We could perform predictive modeling with minimal features while maintaining reasonable performance using the quantiles approach. The best accuracy achieved in the mortality model was approximately 89% using the random forest algorithm. The highest accuracy achieved in the length of stay model, based on the population median ICU stay (2.64 days), was approximately 65% using the random forest algorithm. Conclusions: The novelty in our approach is that we built models to predict ICU length of stay and mortality with reasonable accuracy based on a combination of ML and the quantiles approach that utilizes only vital signs available from the patient’s profile without the need to use any external features. This approach is based on feature engineering of the vital signs by including their modified means, standard deviations, and quantile percentages of the original features, which provided a richer dataset to achieve better predictive power in our models.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1979

Application of parametric weight and cost estimating relationships to future transport aircraft

A model comprised of system level weight and cost estimating relationships for transport aircraft is presented. In order to determine the production cost of future aircraft its weight is first estimated based on performance parameters, and then the cost is estimated as a function of weight. For initial evaluation CERs were applied to actual system weights of six aircraft (3 military and 3 commercial) with mean empty weights ranging from 30,000 to 300,000 lb. The resulting cost estimates were compared with actual costs. The average absolute error was only 4.3%. Then the model was applied to five aircraft still in the design phase (Boeing 757, 767 and 777, and BAC HS146-100 and HS146-200). While the estimates for the 757 and 767 are within 2 to 3 percent of their assumed break-even costs, it is recognized that these are very sensitive to the validity of the estimated weights, inflation factor, the amount assumed for nonrecurring costs, etc., and it is suggested that the model may be used in conjunction with other information such as RDT&E cost estimates and market forecasts. The model will help NASA evaluate new technologies and production costs of future aircraft.

Beltramo, M. N.↗