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NASA NTRS1995

Sensitivity Analysis and Optimization of Enclosure Radiation with Applications to Crystal Growth

In engineering, simulation software is often used as a convenient means for carrying out experiments to evaluate physical systems. The benefit of using simulations as 'numerical' experiments is that the experimental conditions can be easily modified and repeated at much lower cost than the comparable physical experiment. The goal of these experiments is to 'improve' the process or result of the experiment. In most cases, the computational experiments employ the same trial and error approach as their physical counterparts. When using this approach for complex systems, the cause and effect relationship of the system may never be fully understood and efficient strategies for improvement never utilized. However, it is possible when running simulations to accurately and efficiently determine the sensitivity of the system results with respect to simulation to accurately and efficiently determine the sensitivity of the system results with respect to simulation parameters (e.g., initial conditions, boundary conditions, and material properties) by manipulating the underlying computations. This results in a better understanding of the system dynamics and gives us efficient means to improve processing conditions. We begin by discussing the steps involved in performing simulations. Then we consider how sensitivity information about simulation results can be obtained and ways this information may be used to improve the process or result of the experiment. Next, we discuss optimization and the efficient algorithms which use sensitivity information. We draw on all this information to propose a generalized approach for integrating simulation and optimization, with an emphasis on software programming issues. After discussing our approach to simulation and optimization we consider an application involving crystal growth. This application is interesting because it includes radiative heat transfer. We discuss the computation of radiative new factors and the impact this mode of heat transfer has on our approach. Finally, we will demonstrate the results of our optimization.

Tiller, Michael M.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Performance bounds on parallel self-initiating discrete-event

The use is considered of massively parallel architectures to execute discrete-event simulations of what is termed self-initiating models. A logical process in a self-initiating model schedules its own state re-evaluation times, independently of any other logical process, and sends its new state to other logical processes following the re-evaluation. The interest is in the effects of that communication on synchronization. The performance is considered of various synchronization protocols by deriving upper and lower bounds on optimal performance, upper bounds on Time Warp's performance, and lower bounds on the performance of a new conservative protocol. The analysis of Time Warp includes the overhead costs of state-saving and rollback. The analysis points out sufficient conditions for the conservative protocol to outperform Time Warp. The analysis also quantifies the sensitivity of performance to message fan-out, lookahead ability, and the probability distributions underlying the simulation.

Nicol, David M.↗

NASA NTRS2007

An Aeroelastic Analysis of a Thin Flexible Membrane

Studies have shown that significant vehicle mass and cost savings are possible with the use of ballutes for aero-capture. Through NASA's In-Space Propulsion program, a preliminary examination of ballute sensitivity to geometry and Reynolds number was conducted, and a single-pass coupling between an aero code and a finite element solver was used to assess the static aeroelastic effects. There remain, however, a variety of open questions regarding the dynamic aeroelastic stability of membrane structures for aero-capture, with the primary challenge being the prediction of the membrane flutter onset. The purpose of this paper is to describe and begin addressing these issues. The paper includes a review of the literature associated with the structural analysis of membranes and membrane utter. Flow/structure analysis coupling and hypersonic flow solver options are also discussed. An approach is proposed for tackling this problem that starts with a relatively simple geometry and develops and evaluates analysis methods and procedures. This preliminary study considers a computationally manageable 2-dimensional problem. The membrane structural models used in the paper include a nonlinear finite-difference model for static and dynamic analysis and a NASTRAN finite element membrane model for nonlinear static and linear normal modes analysis. Both structural models are coupled with a structured compressible flow solver for static aeroelastic analysis. For dynamic aeroelastic analyses, the NASTRAN normal modes are used in the structured compressible flow solver and 3rd order piston theories were used with the finite difference membrane model to simulate utter onset. Results from the various static and dynamic aeroelastic analyses are compared.

Scott, Robert C.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Strategic Technology Investment Analysis: An Integrated System Approach

Complex technology investment decisions within NASA are increasingly difficult to make such that the end results are satisfying the technical objectives and all the organizational constraints. Due to a restricted science budget environment and numerous required technology developments, the investment decisions need to take into account not only the functional impact on the program goals, but also development uncertainties and cost variations along with maintaining a healthy workforce. This paper describes an approach for optimizing and qualifying technology investment portfolios from the perspective of an integrated system model. The methodology encompasses multi-attribute decision theory elements and sensitivity analysis. The evaluation of the degree of robustness of the recommended portfolio provides the decision-maker with an array of viable selection alternatives, which take into account input uncertainties and possibly satisfy nontechnical constraints. The methodology is presented in the context of assessing capability development portfolios for NASA technology programs.

decision support↗

NASA NTRS1991

Designing for cost

Parametric cost analysis is presently defined as the generation and application of equations to cost analysis; equations defining cost as a function of system-design parameters, performance parameters, or engineering process parameters, constitute a valuable tool for design-to-cost efforts. Cost sensitivity is expressed through the partial derivatives of these functions, furnishing insight into the magnitude and direction of cost change for given parameter changes. The robust design method thus obtained is a systematic and efficient approach for determining the near-optimum set of design parameters for cost, which highlights important factors affecting operation and performance as well as cost.

Dean, Edwin B.↗

NASA NTRS1973

Mariner/Jupiter/Saturn navigation in the presence of massive planetary satellites

Orbit determination accuracies attainable during a Mariner/Jupiter/Saturn encounter have been established by means of covariance analyses. Advanced earth-based multistation radiometric data, optical data consisting of star/satellite pictures provided by a narrow-angle TV camera on board the spacecraft, and batch sequential filtering methods were employed. An evaluation of sequential filter sensitivities to errors in modeling small nongravitational spacecraft accelerations is presented. Selected covariances developed in the orbit determination analysis are used in an investigation of the trajectory correction costs associated with a close Ganymede encounter. The 99 percentile Delta V contours in the Ganymede aiming plane are obtained for satellite encounters before or after Jupiter closed approach, and the sources of the dominant contributions to the Delta V costs are identified.

Hildebrand, C. E.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Recent developments in structural sensitivity analysis

Recent developments in two areas of structural sensitivity analysis are reviewed. These are the sensitivity of static and transient response, and the sensitivity of vibration and buckling eigenproblems. Recent developments from the point of view of computational cost, accuracy, and ease of implementation are considered.

Haftka, Raphael T.↗

NASA NTRS2012

The Influence of Boundary Layer Parameters on Interior Noise

Predictions of the wall pressure in the turbulent boundary of an aerospace vehicle can differ substantially from measurement due to phenomena that are not well understood. Characterizing the phenomena will require additional testing at considerable cost. Before expending scarce resources, it is desired to quantify the effect of the uncertainty in wall pressure predictions and measurements on structural response and acoustic radiation. A sensitivity analysis is performed on four parameters of the Corcos cross spectrum model: power spectrum, streamwise and cross stream coherence lengths and Mach number. It is found that at lower frequencies where high power levels and long coherence lengths exist, the radiated sound power prediction has up to 7 dB of uncertainty in power spectrum levels with streamwise and cross stream coherence lengths contributing equally to the total.

Palumbo, Daniel L.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Probabilistic Analysis of Gas Turbine Field Performance

A gas turbine thermodynamic cycle was computationally simulated and probabilistically evaluated in view of the several uncertainties in the performance parameters, which are indices of gas turbine health. Cumulative distribution functions and sensitivity factors were computed for the overall thermal efficiency and net specific power output due to the thermodynamic random variables. These results can be used to quickly identify the most critical design variables in order to optimize the design, enhance performance, increase system availability and make it cost effective. The analysis leads to the selection of the appropriate measurements to be used in the gas turbine health determination and to the identification of both the most critical measurements and parameters. Probabilistic analysis aims at unifying and improving the control and health monitoring of gas turbine aero-engines by increasing the quality and quantity of information available about the engine's health and performance.

Gorla, Rama S. R.↗

NASA NTRS1982

Current economic and sensitivity analysis for ID slicing of 4 inch and 6 inch diameter silicon ingots for photovoltaic applications

The economics and sensitivities of slicing large diameter silicon ingots for photovoltaic applications were examined. Current economics and slicing add on cost sensitivities are calculated using variable parameters for blade life, slicing yield, and slice cutting speed. It is indicated that cutting speed has the biggest impact on slicing add on cost, followed by slicing yield, and by blade life as the blade life increases.

Roberts, E. G.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Wing-section optimization for supersonic viscous flows

The recent interest in High Speed Civil Transport (HSCT) has resulted in renewed research studies of optimized supersonic cruise transport configurations. Incorporation of flow viscosity effects in the design process of such a supersonic wing is currently under investigation. This may lead to more accurate problem formulations and, in turn, greater aerodynamic efficiency than can be obtained by the traditional, inviscid, linear theories. In this context, for a design code to be a candidate for a complex optimization problem, such as three-dimensional viscous supersonic wing design, it should be validated using simpler building-block shapes. To optimize the shape of a supersonic wing, an automated method that also includes higher fidelity to the flow physics is desirable. With this impetus, an aerodynamic optimization methodology incorporating Navier-Stokes equations and sensitivity analysis had been previously developed. Prior to embarking upon the wing design task, the present investigation concentrated on testing the flexibility of the methodology, and the identification of adequate problem formulations, by defining two-dimensional, cost-effective test cases. Starting with two distinctly different initial airfoils, two independent shape optimizations resulted in shapes with very similar features. Secondly, the normal section to the subsonic portion of the leading edge, which had a high normal angle-of-attack, was considered. The optimization resulted in a shape with twist and camber, which eliminated the adverse pressure gradient, hence, exploiting the leading-edge thrust. The wing section shapes obtained in all the test cases had the features predicted by previous studies. Therefore, it was concluded that the flowfield analyses and the sensitivity coefficients were computed and fed to the present gradient-based optimizer correctly. Also, as a result of the present two-dimensional study, suggestions were made for problem formulations which should contribute to an effective wing shape optimization.

Item, Cem C.↗

NASA NTRS1980

Solar energy system economic evaluation for Seeco Lincoln, Lincoln, Nebraska

The economic analysis of the solar energy system that was installed at Lincoln, Nebraska is developed for this and four other sites typical of a wide range of environmental and economic conditions in the continental United States. This analysis is accomplished based on the technical and economic models in the f chart design procedure with inputs based on the characteristics of the installed system and local conditions. The results are expressed in terms of the economic parameters of present worth of system cost over projected twenty year life: life cycle savings, year of positive savings and year of payback for the optimized solar energy system at each of the analysis sites. The sensitivity of the economic evaluation to uncertainties in constituent system and economic variables is also investigated.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1988

Integrated structural-aerodynamic design optimization

This paper focuses on the processes of simultaneous aerodynamic and structural wing design as a prototype for design integration, with emphasis on the major difficulty associated with multidisciplinary design optimization processes, their enormous computational costs. Methods are presented for reducing this computational burden through the development of efficient methods for cross-sensitivity calculations and the implementation of approximate optimization procedures. Utilizing a modular sensitivity analysis approach, it is shown that the sensitivities can be computed without the expensive calculation of the derivatives of the aerodynamic influence coefficient matrix, and the derivatives of the structural flexibility matrix. The same process is used to efficiently evaluate the sensitivities of the wing divergence constraint, which should be particularly useful, not only in problems of complete integrated aircraft design, but also in aeroelastic tailoring applications.

Haftka, R. T.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Wing-section optimization for supersonic viscous flow

To improve the shape of a supersonic wing, an automated method that also includes higher fidelity to the flow physics is desirable. With this impetus, an aerodynamic optimization methodology incorporating thin-layer Navier-Stokes equations and sensitivity analysis had been previously developed. Prior to embarking upon the wind design task, the present investigation concentrated on testing the feasibility of the methodology, and the identification of adequate problem formulations, by defining two-dimensional, cost-effective test cases. Starting with two distinctly different initial airfoils, two independent shape optimizations resulted in shapes with similar features: slightly cambered, parabolic profiles with sharp leading- and trailing-edges. Secondly, the normal section to the subsonic portion of the leading edge, which had a high normal angle-of-attack, was considered. The optimization resulted in a shape with twist and camber which eliminated the adverse pressure gradient, hence, exploiting the leading-edge thrust. The wing section shapes obtained in all the test cases had the features predicted by previous studies. Therefore, it was concluded that the flowfield analyses and sensitivity coefficients were computed and fed to the present gradient-based optimizer correctly. Also, as a result of the present two-dimensional study, suggestions were made for the problem formulations which should contribute to an effective wing shape optimization.

Item, Cem C.↗

NASA NTRS1982

Second-order sensitivity derivatives in structural analysis

Haug's (1981) expressions for the calculation of static constraint function second derivatives have resulted in an order-of-magnitude saving over conventional methods for the calculation of such derivatives. A similar but simplified procedure is presented which results in a reduction of computational cost by an additional factor of two. The results are presented in a notation that is different from that of Haug, but more common in other work on structural synthesis and analysis.

Haftka, R. T.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Assessing the Impact of Operational Constraints on the Near-Term Unmanned Aircraft System Traffic Management Supported Market

An economic impact market analysis was conducted for 16 leading sectors of commercial Unmanned Aerial System (UAS) applications predicted to be enabled by 2020 through the NASA UAS Traffic Management (UTM) program. Subject matter experts from seven industries were interviewed to validate concept of operations (ConOps) and market adoption assumptions for each sector. The market analysis was used to estimate direct economic impacts for each sector including serviceable addressable market, capital investment, revenue recovery potential, and operations cost savings. The resultant economic picture distinguishes the agricultural, pipeline and railroad inspection, construction, and maritime sectors of the nascent commercial UAS industry as providing the highest potential economic value in the United States. Sensitivity studies characterized the variability of select UAS sectors economic value to key regulatory or UTM ConOps requirements such as weight, altitude, and flight over populated area constraints. Takeaways from the analysis inform the validation of UTM requirements, technologies and timetables from a commercial market need and value viewpoint. This work concluded in August 2015 and reflects the state of the UAS industry and market projections at that time.

Air Traffic Management↗

NASA NTRS1985

A sensitivity analysis of central flat-plate photovoltaic systems and implications for national photovoltaics program planning

The sensitivity of the National Photovoltaic Research Program goals to changes in individual photovoltaic system parameters is explored. Using the relationship between lifetime cost and system performance parameters, tests were made to see how overall photovoltaic system energy costs are affected by changes in the goals set for module cost and efficiency, system component costs and efficiencies, operation and maintenance costs, and indirect costs. The results are presented in tables and figures for easy reference.

Crosetti, M. R.↗

NASA NTRS1978

Cost benefit assessment of NASA remote sensing technology transferred to the State of Georgia

The benefits involved in the transfer of NASA remote sensing technology to eight Georgia state agencies are identified in quantifiable and qualitative terms, and a value for these benefits is computed by means of an effectiveness analysis. The benefits of the transfer are evaluated by contrasting a baseline scenario without Landsat and an alternative scenario with Landsat. The net present value of the Landsat technology being transferred is estimated at 9.5 million dollars. The estimated value of the transfer is most sensitive to discount rate, the cost of photo acquisition, and the cost of data digitalization. It is estimated that, if the budget is constrained, Landsat could provide data products roughly seven times more frequently than would otherwise be possible.

Kelly, D. L.↗