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At least 127 records · Page 7

Recent advances in integrated hydrologic models: Integration of new domains

Over the past several decades, hydrologic models have advanced from independent models of the surface and subsurface to integrated models that can capture the terrestrial hydrologic cycle within one framework. In recent years, these coupled frameworks have seen the inclusion of biogeochemical processes, ecohydrology, sedimentation and erosion, cold region hydrology, anthropogenic activities, and atmospheric processes. This expansion is the result of increased computational, data, and modeling capabilities and capacities, as well as improved understanding of the processes that drive these integrated systems. Here, in this study, we review these recent advances to integrate new processes and systems into existing terrestrial hydrologic models and highlight the significant challenges and opportunities that remain. We identify that with so many models currently available and in development, selecting the most appropriate model is difficult, and we suggest a path for new or novice modelers to find the most appropriate code based on their needs. In addition, data required to parameterize and calibrate these models can often constrain their applicability and usefulness. However, advances in environmental sensors and measurement technology, in addition to data assimilation of non-traditional data (e.g. remote sensing, qualitative data) are providing new ways of addressing this issue. As we expand hydrologic models to integrate more processes and systems, our computational demands also increase. Recent and emerging advances in computational platforms, including cloud and quantum computing, in addition to the use of machine learning to capture some processes, will continue to support the use of increasingly larger and more complex, process-based models. Finally, we highlight that it is critical to develop state-of-the-science models that are accessible to all model users, not just those applied for research and development. We encourage continued development of diverse modeling platforms, considering the user needs, data availability, and computational resources.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Seabird distribution is better predicted by abundance of prey than oceanography. A case study in the Gulf of Cadiz (SW, Iberian Peninsula)

Abstract Quantifying factors that influence marine predator distributions is essential to understanding the current and future change in marine biodiversity. Here, we test whether marine predator distribution relates to prey, or is better predicted by other specific habitat features. We examine the correlation between spatial distribution of three seabird species and their prey, as well as environmental proxies (oceanographic characteristics) in the Gulf of Cadiz, NE Atlantic. We modeled the at-sea distribution of Cory's shearwater, Balearic shearwater and Northern gannet, based on: (i) pelagic fish abundance according to acoustic surveys, and (ii) a forecast-model of remotely sensed environmental variables (productivity, sea surface temperature, and salinity). In general, seabird distributions were better predicted by abundance of fish than by environmental variables at the habitat scale. We obtained consistent correlations between seabird presence and the abundance of medium-sized (10–20 cm) sardines, anchovies and Mediterranean horse mackerel, providing information on their preferred prey. Additionally, oceanographic productivity variables moderately contributed to seabird distribution models, with better predictive value for the critically endangered Balearic shearwater and Northern gannet in the summer, whilst the model for Cory's shearwater's produced poorer predictions. Predator–prey combined studies may represent essential tools for an efficient ecosystem-based management of marine environments.

de la Cruz, Andrés (ORCID:0000000203632498)↗

Giant Cloud Condensation Nuclei Facilitate Drizzle Formation in Stratocumulus—Insights From a Combined Observation‐Modeling Framework

The mechanism for initiating drizzle drop remains a gap in the current understanding of warm rain formation. One prevalent hypothesis suggests that the presence of Giant Cloud Condensation Nuclei (GCCN) generates drizzle‐sized drops necessary to trigger the Collision‐Coalescence (C‐C) process. Here, in this study, this hypothesis is investigated using a novel framework that integrates in situ observations, remote sensing measurements, and idealized models. Results show that GCCN can efficiently generate drizzle drops through condensation, producing a broad Droplet Size Distribution (DSD) comparable to in situ observations. The large drizzle drop and broad DSD strongly facilitate C‐C, further accelerating drizzle initiation. To compare with observation, the model‐generated DSDs are used to generate radar Doppler spectra where radar reflectivity and Doppler skewness is estimated. The simulated radar quantities correspond well with radar observations, providing critical evidence for the GCCN‐induced drizzle initiation mechanism.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Knowledge-guided machine learning can improve carbon cycle quantification in agroecosystems

Abstract Accurate and cost-effective quantification of the carbon cycle for agroecosystems at decision-relevant scales is critical to mitigating climate change and ensuring sustainable food production. However, conventional process-based or data-driven modeling approaches alone have large prediction uncertainties due to the complex biogeochemical processes to model and the lack of observations to constrain many key state and flux variables. Here we propose a Knowledge-Guided Machine Learning (KGML) framework that addresses the above challenges by integrating knowledge embedded in a process-based model, high-resolution remote sensing observations, and machine learning (ML) techniques. Using the U.S. Corn Belt as a testbed, we demonstrate that KGML can outperform conventional process-based and black-box ML models in quantifying carbon cycle dynamics. Our high-resolution approach quantitatively reveals 86% more spatial detail of soil organic carbon changes than conventional coarse-resolution approaches. Moreover, we outline a protocol for improving KGML via various paths, which can be generalized to develop hybrid models to better predict complex earth system dynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Directional infrasound sensing using acoustic metamaterials

Natural and anthropogenic infrasound may travel vast distances, making it an invaluable resource for monitoring phenomena such as nuclear explosions, volcanic eruptions, severe storms, and many others. Typically, these waves are captured using pressure sensors, which cannot encode the direction of arrival—critical information when the source location is not known beforehand. Obtaining this information therefore requires arrays of sensors with apertures ranging from tens of meters to kilometers depending on the wavelengths of interest. This is often impractical in locations that lack the necessary real estate (urban areas, rugged regions, or remote islands); in any case, it requires multiple power, digitizer, and telemetry deployments. In this work, the theoretical basis behind a compact infrasound direction of arrival sensor based on the acoustic metamaterials is presented. This sensor occupies a footprint that is orders of magnitude smaller than the span of a typical infrasound array. The diminutive size of the unit greatly expands the locations where it can be deployed. The sensor design is described, its ability to determine the direction of arrival is evaluated, and further avenues of study are suggested.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Development of a Full-Scale Connected U-Net for Reflectivity Inpainting in Spaceborne Radar Blind Zones

CloudSat’s Cloud Profiling Radar is a valuable tool for remotely monitoring high-latitude snowfall, but its ability to observe hydrometeor activity near the Earth’s surface is limited by a radar blind zone caused by ground clutter contamination. This study presents the development of a deeply supervised U-Net-style convolutional neural network to predict cold season reflectivity profiles within the blind zone at two Arctic locations. The network learns to predict the presence and intensity of near-surface hydrometeors by coupling latent features encoded in blind zone-aloft clouds with additional context from collocated atmospheric state variables (i.e., temperature, specific humidity, and wind speed). Results show that the U-Net predictions outperform traditional linear extrapolation methods, with low mean absolute error, a 38% higher Sørensen–Dice coefficient, and vertical reflectivity distributions 60% closer to observed values. The U-Net is also able to detect the presence of near-surface cloud with a critical success index (CSI) of 72% and cases of shallow cumuliform snowfall and virga with 18% higher CSI values compared to linear methods. An explainability analysis shows that reflectivity information throughout the scene, especially at cloud edges and at the 1.2-km blind zone threshold, along with atmospheric state variables near the tropopause, are the most significant contributors to model skill. This surface-trained generative inpainting technique has the potential to enhance current and future remote sensing precipitation missions by providing a better understanding of the nonlinear relationship between blind zone reflectivity values and the surrounding atmospheric state.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

GeoDAWN West Central Nevada EarthMRI Data

This submission includes both the original product resolution (OPR) and LiDAR point cloud (LPC) LiDAR data collected as part of GeoDAWN: Geoscience Data Acquisition for Western Nevada. The USGS Earth Mapping Resources Initiative (EarthMRI) and USGS 3D Elevation Program (3DEP), Department of Energy Geothermal Technologies Office, Natural Resources Conservation Services, and Bureau of Land Management have partnered to conduct airborne geophysical and 3DEP lidar surveys over parts of Nevada and California to collect information on undiscovered geothermal, critical mineral, and groundwater resources in the western Great Basin and the Walker Lane region.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Detection of surface water temperature variations of Mongolian lakes benefiting from the spatially and temporally gap-filled MODIS data

Lakes provide critical water resources for human activities and ecosystems, particularly in the Mongolian Plateau (MP), which is characterized by a dry climate and a harsh environment. As a region that is sensitive to anthropogenic warming, tracking lake surface water temperature (LSWT) changes in Mongolian lakes is crucial for understanding the consequences of a warming climate on lake ecosystems. However, the long-term monitoring of LSWT is restricted by the spatiotemporal gaps in the raw imagery of remote sensing-based land surface temperature (LST), e.g., the commonly used Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) LST products. This study applied an improved gap-filling method by utilizing the discrete cosine transform-based penalized least squares (DCT-PLS) strategy in the spatial domain combined with the linear interpolation (LI) algorithm in the temporal domain. The method was applied to fill gaps in the LSWT imagery of 12 representative lakes across MP. The randomly sampled high-quality MODIS LSWT values in the spatial and temporal domains were excavated as false data gaps and considered “virtual true” validation datasets. The spatial validation results showed that the estimated LSWT for all the lake cases were comparable with the “virtual true” LSWT values, with the average values of the coefficient of determination, mean absolute error, mean square error, and root mean square error being 0.98, 0.38 °C, 0.45 °C, and 0.59 °C, respectively. Meanwhile, the error of nighttime LSWT results was relatively lower than that of daytime LSWT. For temporal interpolation validation, the LI algorithm exhibited relatively better performance and could more objectively indicate the variation in LSWT. Benefiting from the spatially and temporally well-constrained data, we analyzed the interannual and intra-annual change characteristics of the LSWTs of the 12 lakes. The long-term variations of annual and seasonal mean LSWTs in the 12 selected lakes exhibited no evident trends in 2000–2020, while presented apparent interannual fluctuations. The slight changes in the average LSWTs of the 12 selected lakes were in excellent synchronization with the surrounding LST derived from the reanalysis datasets, confirming the widely reported phenomenon of “global warming hiatus” that occurred in the early 21st century. This study improves the understanding of the LSWT variations in Mongolian lakes in response to global climate change. It has the potential to provide an effective approach for monitoring LSWT changes in other large-scale studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

GeoDAWN Northwestern Elko County Nevada EarthMRI Data

This submission includes both the original product resolution (OPR) and LiDAR point cloud (LPC) LiDAR data collected as part of GeoDAWN: Geoscience Data Acquisition for Northwestern Elko County, Nevada. The USGS Earth Mapping Resources Initiative (EarthMRI) and USGS 3D Elevation Program (3DEP), Department of Energy Geothermal Technologies Office, Natural Resources Conservation Services, and Bureau of Land Management have partnered to conduct airborne geophysical and 3DEP lidar surveys over parts of Nevada and California to collect information on undiscovered geothermal, critical mineral, and groundwater resources in the western Great Basin and the Walker Lane region.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Crop diversification improves water-use efficiency and regional water sustainability

As global water scarcity intensifies, identifying agricultural practices that enhance sustainable water management is critical. Temporal crop diversification-rotating multiple species over time-has been proposed to improve soil health and water retention based on field-scale experiments. However, widespread adoption remains limited on farms, in part due to unverified benefits at larger scales. Here, we assess the influence of crop diversification on agricultural water-use efficiency (WUE, ratio of gross primary productivity to evapotranspiration) along a spectrum of monoculture to complex species rotations in California. Leveraging new high-resolution remote sensing datasets, we show that crop diversification is a key driver of agricultural WUE, and increasing the number of species planted in the previous 6 years from two to four increases WUE by ∼20% after accounting for differences between crops. Our results provide spatially explicit, large-scale quantification of crop diversification’s improvements to WUE, with direct implications for climate adaptation. More broadly, our framework offers a tool to evaluate other sustainable practices and guide policy and farm-scale decision-making.

climate-resilient agriculture↗

Improving CLM5.0 Biomass and Carbon Exchange Across the Western United States Using a Data Assimilation System

The Western United States is dominated by natural lands that play a critical role for carbon balance, water quality, and timber reserves. This region is also particularly vulnerable to forest mortality from drought, insect attack, and wildfires, thus requiring constant monitoring to assess ecosystem health. Carbon monitoring techniques are challenged by the complex mountainous terrain, thus there is an opportunity for data assimilation systems that combine land surface models and satellite-derived observations to provide improved carbon monitoring. Here, we use the Data Assimilation Research Testbed to adjust the Community Land Model (CLM5.0) with remotely sensed observations of leaf area and above-ground biomass. The adjusted simulation significantly reduced the above-ground biomass and leaf area, leading to a reduction in both photosynthesis and respiration fluxes. The reduction in the carbon fluxes mostly offset, thus both the adjusted and free simulation projected a weak carbon sink to the land. This result differed from a separate observation-constrained model (FLUXCOM) that projected strong carbon uptake to the land. Simulation diagnostics suggested water limitation had an important influence upon the magnitude and spatial pattern of carbon uptake through photosynthesis. We recommend that additional observations important for water cycling (e.g., snow water equivalent, land surface temperature) be included to improve the veracity of the spatial pattern in carbon uptake. Furthermore, the assimilation system should be enhanced to maximize the number of the simulated state variables that are adjusted, especially those related to the recommended observed quantities including water cycling and soil carbon.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Delayed fire mortality has long‐term ecological effects across the Southern Appalachian landscape

Abstract Fire is a critical ecological process to the forests of the Southern Appalachians. Where fire was excluded from forest types that historically burned frequently, unanticipated changes can occur when fire is reintroduced. For example, the development of new fuel characteristics can change the patterns of fire mortality and associated ecological responses. To test the fire effects of delayed fire mortality (mortality initiated by fire that occurs subsequent to the fire year) in the Southern Appalachians, USA, we developed a fire‐effects model using both field studies and remote sensing. We then simulated these effects at a landscape scale to estimate broader ecological effects. Fire‐effects models that accounted for delayed mortality increased landscape biomass removed annually (~23%) and increased the number of sites with high light conditions (leaf area index < 4) when compared to simulations that only account for immediate mortality. While delayed mortality occurred across species and age classes, it was especially prevalent among older trees (>100 years old) and fire‐resistant species ( Quercus spp.). Overall, regeneration (trees <20 years old) changed very little, even with the inclusion of delayed mortality. This evidence suggests that, even when accounting for delayed mortality, individual fires are unlikely to shift the landscape composition toward the conditions of forests prior to fire exclusion and may even increase mesophication long term due to the loss of overstory dominant xeric trees.

Robbins, Zachary J.↗

Vertical canopy gradients of respiration drive plant carbon budgets and leaf area index

Despite its importance for determining global carbon fluxes, leaf respiration remains poorly constrained in land surface models (LSMs). We tested the sensitivity of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model Land Model – Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (ELM-FATES) to variation in the canopy gradients of leaf maintenance respiration (R dark ). We ran global and point simulations varying the canopy gradient of R dark to explore the impacts on forest structure, composition, and carbon cycling. In global simulations, steeper canopy gradients of R dark lead to increased understory survival and leaf biomass. Leaf area index (LAI) increased up to 77% in tropical regions compared with the default parameterization, improving alignment with remotely sensed benchmarks. Global vegetation carbon varied from 308 Pg C to 449 Pg C across the ensemble. In tropical forest simulations, steeper gradients of R dark had a large impact on successional dynamics. Results show the importance of canopy gradients in leaf traits and fluxes for determining plant carbon budgets and emergent ecosystem properties such as competitive dynamics, LAI, and vegetation carbon. The high-model sensitivity to canopy gradients in R dark highlights the need for more observations of how leaf traits and fluxes vary along light micro-environments to inform critical dynamics in LSMs.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

A remote sensing algorithm for vertically resolved cloud condensation nuclei number concentrations from airborne and spaceborne lidar observations

Cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) are mediators of aerosol–cloud interactions (ACIs), contributing to the largest uncertainties in the understandings of global climate change. We present a novel remote-sensing-based algorithm that quantifies the vertically resolved CCN number concentrations (N CCN ) using aerosol optical properties measured by a multiwavelength lidar. The algorithm considers five distinct aerosol subtypes with bimodal size distributions. The inversion used the lookup tables developed in this study, based on the observations from the Aerosol Robotic Network, to efficiently retrieve optimal particle size distributions from lidar measurements. The method derives dry aerosol optical properties by implementing hygroscopic enhancement factors in lidar measurements. The retrieved optically equivalent particle size distributions and aerosol-type-dependent particle composition are utilized to calculate critical diameters using κ-Köhler theory and N CCN at six supersaturations ranging from 0.07 % to 1.0 %. Sensitivity analyses indicate that uncertainties in extinction coefficients and relative humidity greatly influence the retrieval error in N CCN . The potential of this algorithm is further evaluated by retrieving N CCN using airborne lidar from the NASA ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS (ORACLES) campaign and is validated against simultaneous measurements from the CCN counter. The independent validation with robust correlation demonstrates promising results. Furthermore, the N CCN has been retrieved for the first time using a proposed algorithm from spaceborne lidar – Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) – measurements. The application of this new capability demonstrates the potential for constructing a 3D CCN climatology at a global scale, which helps to better quantify ACI effects and thus reduce the uncertainty in aerosol climate forcing.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

National-scale remotely sensed lake trophic state from 1984 through 2020

Lake trophic state is a key ecosystem property that integrates a lake’s physical, chemical, and biological processes. Despite the importance of trophic state as a gauge of lake water quality, standardized and machine-readable observations are uncommon. Remote sensing presents an opportunity to detect and analyze lake trophic state with reproducible, robust methods across time and space. We used Landsat surface reflectance data to create the first compendium of annual lake trophic state for 55,662 lakes of at least 10 ha in area throughout the contiguous United States from 1984 through 2020. The dataset was constructed with FAIR data principles (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, and Reproducible) in mind, where data are publicly available, relational keys from parent datasets are retained, and all data wrangling and modeling routines are scripted for future reuse. Together, this resource offers critical data to address basic and applied research questions about lake water quality at a suite of spatial and temporal scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Quantifying uncertainty in Pareto estimates of global lake area

Abstract Size is a critical factor determining the rate and occurrence of specific lake processes such as carbon sequestration and greenhouse gas emissions and emerging evidence suggests that small lakes in particular have particularly large CO 2 flux rates. Because we do not have a complete census of all lakes, upscaling estimates of such processes to small lakes at broad spatial scales requires the use of lake size‐abundance distributions rather than empirical measurements of area. Existing lake census efforts are incomplete such that as lakes become smaller, they are more likely to be omitted either because they are too small to be resolved from remote sensing products or because of limited ground surveying effort (i.e., “censoring” of small lakes relative to large lakes). The present study explores one potential shortcoming of prior approaches estimating global lake area using lake size‐abundance distributions. Namely, that these prior approaches rely on frequentist curve fitting techniques combined with an ad‐hoc cutoff determination strategy (visual inspection to determine a likely censoring point). This yields an over‐exact lake area estimate that is typically reported with no uncertainty bounds. I show how these shortcomings can be addressed with a Bayesian model that produces larger estimates of lake area uncertainty relative to the typical approach. When used as part of a sensitivity analysis, such an approach has the potential to enable more robust intercomparisons among studies of aquatic processes upscaling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Mapping foliar photosynthetic capacity in sub-tropical and tropical forests with UAS-based imaging spectroscopy: Scaling from leaf to canopy

Accurate understanding of the variability in foliar physiological traits across landscapes is critical to improve parameterization and evaluation of terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) that seek to represent the response of terrestrial ecosystems to a changing climate. Numerous studies suggest imaging spectroscopy can characterize foliar biochemical and morphological traits at the canopy scale, but there is only limited evidence for retrieving canopy photosynthetic capacity (e.g., maximum carboxylation rate, V c,max and maximum electron transport rate, J max ). Moreover, the effect of canopy structure within forest communities on scaling up spectra-trait relationships from leaf to canopy level is not well known. To advance the spectra-trait approach and enable the estimation of key traits using remote sensing, we collected imaging spectroscopy data from an Unoccupied Aerial System (UAS) platform over two forest sites in China (a subtropical forest in Mt. Dinghu and a tropical rainforest in Xishuangbanna). At these sites, we also collected ground measurements of leaf spectra and traits, including biochemical (leaf nitrogen, phosphorus, chlorophyll, and water content), morphological (leaf mass per area, LMA) and physiological (V c,max25 and J max25 ) traits (n=135 tree-crowns from 42 species across two sites). Using a partial least-squares regression (PLSR) approach, we built and tested spectra-trait models with repeated cross-validation. The spectral models developed with leaf spectra were directly transferred to canopy spectra to evaluate the effect of canopy structure. Here we further applied canopy spectral models to map these traits at individual tree-crown scale. The results demonstrate that (1) UAS-based canopy spectra can be used to estimate V c,max (R 2 =0.55, nRMSE=11.79%), Jmax (R 2 =0.54, nRMSE=12.34%), and five additional foliar traits (R 2 =0.38-0.60, nRMSE=10.11-13.56%) at the tree-crown scale with demonstrated generalizability across two sites; (2) canopy structure strongly affects the spectratrait relationships from leaf to canopy level, but the effects vary considerably across foliar traits and cannot be well captured by the 4SAIL canopy radiative transfer model. UAS-based imaging spectroscopy maps large variability in all foliar traits (including physiological traits) with spatially explicit information, reproducing the field-observed inter- and intra-specific variations. These results demonstrate the capability of using UAS-based imaging spectroscopy for characterizing the variability of foliar physiological traits at individual tree-crown scale over forest landscapes and highlight the similar generalizability but different biophysical mechanisms underlying spectra-trait relationships at leaf and canopy levels.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Surface Radiation Balance Dataset from Siple Dome in West Antarctica for Atmospheric and Climate Model Evaluation

Abstract A field campaign at Siple Dome in West Antarctica during the austral summer 2019/20 offers an opportunity to evaluate climate model performance, particularly cloud microphysical simulation. Over Antarctic ice sheets and ice shelves, clouds are a major regulator of the surface energy balance, and in the warm season their presence occasionally induces surface melt that can gradually weaken an ice shelf structure. This dataset from Siple Dome, obtained using transportable and solar-powered equipment, includes surface energy balance measurements, meteorology, and cloud remote sensing. To demonstrate how these data can be used to evaluate model performance, comparisons are made with meteorological reanalysis known to give generally good performance over Antarctica (ERA5). Surface albedo measurements show expected variability with observed cloud amount, and can be used to evaluate a model’s snowpack parameterization. One case study discussed involves a squall with northerly winds, during which ERA5 fails to produce cloud cover throughout one of the days. A second case study illustrates how shortwave spectroradiometer measurements that encompass the 1.6- μ m atmospheric window reveal cloud phase transitions associated with cloud life cycle. Here, continuously precipitating mixed-phase clouds become mainly liquid water clouds from local morning through the afternoon, not reproduced by ERA5. We challenge researchers to run their various regional or global models in a manner that has the large-scale meteorology follow the conditions of this field campaign, compare cloud and radiation simulations with this Siple Dome dataset, and potentially investigate why cloud microphysical simulations or other model components might produce discrepancies with these observations. significance statement Antarctica is a critical region for understanding climate change and sea level rise, as the great ice sheets and the ice shelves are subject to increasing risk as global climate warms. Climate models have difficulties over Antarctica, particularly with simulation of cloud properties that regulate snow surface melting or refreezing. Atmospheric and climate-related field work has significant challenges in the Antarctic, due to the small number of research stations that can support state-of-the-art equipment. Here we present new data from a suite of transportable and solar-powered instruments that can be deployed to remote Antarctic sites, including regions where ice shelves are most at risk, and we demonstrate how key components of climate model simulations can be evaluated against these data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗