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At least 127 records · Page 7

Two-thirds of Global Cropland Area Impacted by Climate Oscillations

The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) peaked strongly during the boreal winter 2015-2016, leading to food insecurity in many parts of Africa, Asia and Latin America. Besides ENSO, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are known to impact crop yields worldwide. Here we assess for the first time in a unified framework the relationship between ENSO, IOD and NAO and simulated crop productivity at the sub-country scale. Our findings reveal that during 1961-2010, crop productivity is significantly influenced by at least one large-scale climate oscillation in two-thirds of global cropland area. Besides observing new possible links, especially for NAO in Africa and the Middle East, our analyses confirm several known relationships between crop productivity and these oscillations. Our results improve the understanding of climatological crop productivity drivers, which is essential for enhancing food security in many of the most vulnerable places on the planet.

IOD↗

Comment on 'Shang S. 2012. Calculating actual crop evapotranspiration under soil water stress conditions with appropriate numerical methods and time step. Hydrological Processes 26: 3338-3343. DOI: 10.1002/hyp.8405'

A previous study analyzed errors in the numerical calculation of actual crop evapotranspiration (ET(sub a)) under soil water stress. Assuming no irrigation or precipitation, it constructed equations for ET(sub a) over limited soil-water ranges in a root zone drying out due to evapotranspiration. It then used a single crop-soil composite to provide recommendations about the appropriate usage of numerical methods under different values of the time step and the maximum crop evapotranspiration (ET(sub c)). This comment reformulates those ET(sub a) equations for applicability over the full range of soil water values, revealing a dependence of the relative error in numerical ET(sub a) on the initial soil water that was not seen in the previous study. It is shown that the recommendations based on a single crop-soil composite can be invalid for other crop-soil composites. Finally, a consideration of the numerical error in the time-cumulative value of ET(sub a) is discussed besides the existing consideration of that error over individual time steps as done in the previous study. This cumulative ET(sub a) is more relevant to the final crop yield.

Time step↗

RGB Imaging as a Tool to Monitor Indoor Crop Plant Production

Future crop production in space will require robust monitoring technologies that can optimize crop yield, reduce waste, and generate data for an automated plant growth design. Imaging has been suggested as a tool for measuring plant health, yet imaging systems for indoor crops have not been tested in spaceflight. Fortunately, RGB images of crop plants growing inside the Advanced Plant Habitat (APH) aboard the ISS have already been captured. In ground-based studies, the Kennedy Space Center (NASA, KSC) is collaborating with the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA ARS) to develop an imaging system for monitoring indoor crop plant health. In one study, we applied a drought stress to ‘Dragoon’ lettuce plants over a period of 14 days and captured RGB images in 24 h increments. Images were analyzed, and by applying a difference index, the images were able to be used to detect the drought stress in lettuce. This difference index was then applied to RGB images collected inside the APH ground unit for a pre-flight experiment growing ‘Outredgous’ lettuce under different substrate moisture conditions, and results showed that the RGB camera was capable of detecting drought stress inside the spaceflight plant growth hardware. These results suggest that RGB cameras already deployed to space may offer valuable information for monitoring plant production in extraterrestrial environments. This research was supported by NASA’s space biology program.

Rachel Tucker↗

The LACIE crop years: An assessment of the crop conditions experienced in the three years of LACIE

Meteorological data and LANDSAT spectral data from growing regions in the U.S. Great Plains, the U.S.S.R., and Canada were used to assess growing conditions and to document where anomalies such as drought, floods, and freezes were impacting the crop yield and appearance of spring and winter wheat. In the United States, the weekly rainfall and temperature data were used to estimate soil moisture, which was then related to crop needs by a crop moisture index. The transformation of LANDSAT digital data into a green index number provided a procedure whereby data from a LACIE segment could be classified as drought affected or not. The growing seasons encountered in each LACIE country during the three phases are described.

Hill, J. D.↗

Regional Disparities in the Beneficial Effects of Rising CO2 Emissions on Crop Water Productivity

Rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations are expected to enhance photosynthesis and reduce crop water use. However, there is high uncertainty about the global implications of these effects for future crop production and agricultural water requirements under climate change. Here we combine results from networks of field experiments and global crop models to present a spatially explicit global perspective on crop water productivity (CWP, the ratio of crop yield to evapotranspiration) for wheat, maize, rice and soybean under elevated carbon dioxide and associated climate change projected for a high-end greenhouse gas emissions scenario. We find carbon dioxide effects increase global CWP by 10[0;47]%-27[7;37]% (median[interquartile range] across the model ensemble) by the 2080s depending on crop types, with particularly large increases in arid regions (by up to 48[25;56]% for rain fed wheat). If realized in the fields, the effects of elevated carbon dioxide could considerably mitigate global yield losses whilst reducing agricultural consumptive water use (4-17%). We identify regional disparities driven by differences in growing conditions across agro-ecosystems that could have implications for increasing food production without compromising water security. Finally, our results demonstrate the need to expand field experiments and encourage greater consistency in modeling the effects of rising carbon dioxide across crop and hydrological modeling communities.

Deryng, Delphine↗

Agricultural inventory capabilities of machine processed LANDSAT digital data

Agricultural crop identification and acreage determination analysis of LANDSAT digital data was performed for two study areas. A multispectral image processing and analysis system was utilized to perform the manmachine interactive analysis. The developed techniques yielded crop acreage estimate results with accuracy greater than 90% and as high as 99%. These results are encouraging evidence of agricultural inventory capabilities of machine processed LANDSAT digital data.

Dietrick, D. L.↗

Long-Term Climatic Variations in the Almati Oblast in Central Asian Kazakhstan: Correlations between National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Reanalysis II Results and Oblast Meteorological Station Data from 1949 to the Present

As part of a larger analysis of country systems described elsewhere, named a Crop Country Inventory, CCI, large variations in annual crop yield for selected climate sensitive agricultural regions or sub-regions within a country have been studied over extended periods in decades. These climate sensitive regions, principally responsible for large annual variations in an entire country s crop production, generally are characterized by distinctive patterns of atmospheric circulation and synoptic processes that result in large seasonal fluctuations in temperature, precipitation and soil moisture as well as other climate properties. The immediate region of interest is drought prone Kazakhstan in Central Asia, part of the Former Soviet Union, FSU. As a partial validation test in a dry southern region of Kazakhstan, the Almati Oblast was chosen. The Almati Oblast, a sub-region of Kazakhstan located in its southeast corner, is one of 14 oblasts within the Republic of Kazahstan. The climate data set used to characterize this region was taken from the results of the current maturely developed Global Climate Model, GCM. In this paper, the GCM results have been compared to the meteorological station data at the station locations, over various periods. If the empirical correlation of the data sets from both the GCM and station data is sufficiently significant, this would validate the use of the superior GCM profile mapping and integration for the climatic characterization of a sub-region. Precipitation values interpolated from NCEP Reanalysis II data, a global climate database spanning over 5 decades since 1949, have been statistically correlated with monthly-averaged station data from 1949 through 1993, and with daily station data from April through August, 1990 for the Almati Oblast in Kazakhstan. The resultant correlation is significant, which implies that the methodology may be extended to different regions globally for Crop Country Inventory studies.

Welker, Jean E.↗

Tree Canopy Light Interception Estimates in Almond and a Walnut Orchards Using Ground, Low Flying Aircraft, and Satellite Based Methods to Improve Irrigation Scheduling Programs

Canopy light interception is a main driver of water use and crop yield in almond and walnut production. Fractional green canopy cover (Fc) is a good indicator of light interception and can be estimated remotely from satellite using the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data. Satellite-based Fc estimates could be used to inform crop evapotranspiration models, and hence support improvements in irrigation evaluation and management capabilities. Satellite estimates of Fc in almond and walnut orchards, however, need to be verified before incorporating them into irrigation scheduling or other crop water management programs. In this study, Landsat-based NDVI and Fc from NASA's Satellite Irrigation Management Support (SIMS) were compared with four estimates of canopy cover: 1. light bar measurement, 2. in-situ and image-based dimensional tree-crown analyses, 3. high-resolution NDVI data from low flying aircraft, and 4. orchard photos obtained via Google Earth and processed by an Image J thresholding routine. Correlations between the various estimates are discussed.

Satellite↗

Experiments Advance Gardening at Home and in Space

Aeroponics, the process of growing plants suspended in air without soil or media, provides clean, efficient, and rapid food production. Crops can be planted and harvested year-round without interruption, and without contamination from soil, pesticides, and residue. Aeroponic systems also reduce water usage by 98 percent, fertilizer usage by 60 percent, and eliminate pesticide usage altogether. Plants grown in aeroponic systems have been shown to absorb more minerals and vitamins, making the plants healthier and potentially more nutritious. The suspended system also has other advantages. Since the growing environment can be kept clean and sterile, the chances of spreading plant diseases and infections commonly found in soil and other growing media are greatly reduced. Also, seedlings do not stretch or wilt while their roots are forming, and once the roots are developed, the plants can be easily moved into any type of growing media without the risk of transplant shock. Lastly, plants tend to grow faster in a regulated aeroponic environment, and the subsequent ease of transplant to a natural medium means a higher annual crop yield. For example, tomatoes are traditionally started in pots and transplanted to the ground at least 28 days later; growers using an aeroponic system can transplant them just 10 days after starting the plants in the growing chamber. This accelerated cycle produces six tomato crops per year, rather than the traditional one to two crop cycles. These benefits, along with the great reduction in weight by eliminating soil and much of the water required for plant growth, illustrate why this technique has found such enthusiastic support from NASA. Successful long-term missions into deep space will require crews to grow some of their own food during flight. Aeroponic crops are also a potential source of fresh oxygen and clean drinking water, and every ounce of food produced and water conserved aboard a spacecraft reduces payload weight, decreasing launch costs and freeing room for other cargo.

Source record↗

Uncertainty of Wheat Water Use: Simulated Patterns and Sensitivity to Temperature and CO2

Projected global warming and population growth will reduce future water availability for agriculture. Thus, it is essential to increase the efficiency in using water to ensure crop productivity. Quantifying crop water use (WU; i.e. actual evapotranspiration) is a critical step towards this goal. Here, sixteen wheat simulation models were used to quantify sources of model uncertainty and to estimate the relative changes and variability between models for simulated WU, water use efficiency (WUE, WU per unit of grain dry mass produced), transpiration efficiency (Teff, transpiration per kg of unit of grain yield dry mass produced), grain yield, crop transpiration and soil evaporation at increased temperatures and elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations ([CO2]). The greatest uncertainty in simulating water use, potential evapotranspiration, crop transpiration and soil evaporation was due to differences in how crop transpiration was modelled and accounted for 50 of the total variability among models. The simulation results for the sensitivity to temperature indicated that crop WU will decline with increasing temperature due to reduced growing seasons. The uncertainties in simulated crop WU, and in particularly due to uncertainties in simulating crop transpiration, were greater under conditions of increased temperatures and with high temperatures in combination with elevated atmospheric [CO2] concentrations. Hence the simulation of crop WU, and in particularly crop transpiration under higher temperature, needs to be improved and evaluated with field measurements before models can be used to simulate climate change impacts on future crop water demand.

Sensitivity↗

Characterizing Agricultural Impacts of Recent Large-Scale US Droughts and Changing Technology and Management

Process-based agricultural models, applied in novel ways, can reproduce historical crop yield anomalies in the US, with median absolute deviation from observations of 6.7% at national-level and 11% at state-level. In seasons for which drought is the overriding factor, performance is further improved. Historical counterfactual scenarios for the 1988 and 2012 droughts show that changes in agricultural technologies and management have reduced system-level drought sensitivity in US maize production by about 25% in the intervening years. Finally, we estimate the economic costs of the two droughts in terms of insured and uninsured crop losses in each US county (for a total, adjusted for inflation, of $9 billion in 1988 and $21.6 billion in 2012). We compare these with cost estimates from the counterfactual scenarios and with crop indemnity data where available. Model based measures are capable of accurately reproducing the direct agro-economic losses associated with extreme drought and can be used to characterize and compare events that occurred under very different conditions. This work suggests new approaches to modeling, monitoring, forecasting, and evaluating drought impacts on agriculture, as well as evaluating technological changes to inform adaptation strategies for future climate change and extreme events.

Climate extremes; Drought impacts; Agriculture; Se↗

Comparative Study of Lettuce and Radish Grown Under Red and Blue LEDs and White Fluorescent Lamps

Growing vegetable crops in space will be an essential part of sustaining astronauts during long-range missions. To drive photosynthesis, red and blue light-emitting diodes (LEDs) have attracted attention because of their efficiency, longevity, small size, and safety. In efforts to optimize crop yield, there is also recent interest in analyzing the subtle effects of additional wavelengths on plant growth. For instance, since plants often look purplish gray under red and blue LEDs, the addition of green light allows easy recognition of disease and the assessment of plant health status. However, it is important to know if wavelengths outside the traditional red and blue wavebands have a direct effect on enhancing or hindering the mechanisms involved in plant growth. In this experiment, a comparative study was performed on two short cycle crops of red romaine lettuce (Lactuca sativa cv. "Outredgeous") and radish (Raphanus sativa cv. 'Cherry Bomb'), which were grown under two light treatments. The first treatment being red (630 nm) and blue (450 nm) LEDs alone, while the second treatment consisted of daylight tri-phosphor fluorescent lamps (CCT approximately 5000 K) at equal photosynthetic photon flux (PPF). The treatment effects were evaluated by measuring the fresh biomass produced, plant morphology and leaf dimensions, leaf chlorophyll content, and adenosine triphosphate (ATP) within plant leaf/storage root tissues.

Food Production↗

Economic Impact of Water Allocation on Agriculture in the Lower Chattahoochee River Basin

The relative value of irrigation water was assessed for three important crops (corn, cotton, and peanuts) grown in the southeastern United States. A decision tool was developed with the objective of allocating limited available water among competing crops in a manner that would maximize the economic returns to the producers. The methodology was developed and tested for a hypothetical farm located in Henry County, Alabama in the Chattahoochee river basin. Crop yield - soil moisture response functions were developed using Monte Carlo simulated data for cotton, corn, and peanuts. A hydrologic model was employed to simulate runoff over the period of observed rainfall the county to provide inflows to storage facilities that could be used as constraints for the optimal allocation of the available water in the face of the uncertainty of future rainfall and runoff. Irrigation decisions were made on a weekly basis during the critical water deficit period in the region. An economic optimization model was employed with the crop responses, and soil moisture functions to determine the optimum amount of water place on each crop subject to the amount of irrigation water availability and climatic uncertainty. The results indicated even small amounts of irrigation could significantly benefit farmers in the region if applied judiciously. A weekly irrigation sequence was developed that maintained the available water on the crops that exhibited the most significant combination of water sensitivity and cash value.

Limaye, Ashutosh S.↗

Representing Water Scarcity in Future Agricultural Assessments

Globally, irrigated agriculture is both essential for food production and the largest user of water. A major challenge for hydrologic and agricultural research communities is assessing the sustainability of irrigated croplands under climate variability and change. Simulations of irrigated croplands generally lack key interactions between water supply, water distribution, and agricultural water demand. In this article, we explore the critical interface between water resources and agriculture by motivating, developing, and illustrating the application of an integrated modeling framework to advance simulations of irrigated croplands. We motivate the framework by examining historical dynamics of irrigation water withdrawals in the United States and quantitatively reviewing previous modeling studies of irrigated croplands with a focus on representations of water supply, agricultural water demand, and impacts on crop yields when water demand exceeds water supply. We then describe the integrated modeling framework for simulating irrigated croplands, which links trends and scenarios with water supply, water allocation, and agricultural water demand. Finally, we provide examples of efforts that leverage the framework to improve simulations of irrigated croplands as well as identify opportunities for interventions that increase agricultural productivity, resiliency, and sustainability.

Irrigated Agriculture; Crop Model; Hydrologic Mode↗

On the Use of SMAP Soil Moisture for Forecasting NDVI Over CONUS Cropland Regions

Vegetation health forecasting (NDVI as a proxy) informs decision-makers about the end of season crop yield productivity but is not well-documented. This study tests improvements in vegetation health forecasting by developing a data-driven Dynamic Agricultural Productivity Indicator ( DAPI ), which simultaneously incorporates satellite-based root zone soil moisture (RZSM) and satellite-based NDVI data. RZSM is estimated via data assimilation of satellite based SMAP SM dataset. We employ the proposed DAPI forecast across four cropland types in CONUS, including corn, cotton, soybeans, and wheat. Results demonstrate superior performance of the DAPI forecasts compared to climatology-based NDVI forecasts, with the largest improvements in water-limited regions. DAPI shows particularly good performance during hydrologic disturbances such as floods and droughts. To this end, the DAPI approach is useful in estimating future vegetation health for identifying potential food-insecure areas, predicting crop price changes, and projecting expected commodities market trends.

Manh Le↗

Plant Disease Detection: Exploring Applications in Hyperspectral Imaging and Machine Learning for Agriculture

The threat of crop disease on food security and agriculture is projected to escalate, leading to reduced crop yields, global economic loss, and endangered food availability to vulnerable populations. Early identification of plant disease is crucial to combatting the crisis but traditional manual methods for disease detection are laborious and may miss early signs of infection. The proposed solution suggests equipping a drone with a hyperspectral camera to collect images and analyzing the data with neural networks trained to flag and classify infected plants. This approach offers a faster, more accurate, and potentially more cost-effective alternative to current practices. While the expensive and complex nature of hyperspectral imaging (HSI) may be an obstacle to the adoption of the drone, rapidly advancing technologies compounded with rental-based usage may make these tools simpler, cheaper, and more accessible to a wider audience. The research further discusses the potential for automated flight paths and the expansion of disease detection to a broader range of crops.

plant disease detection↗

Uncertainties in Predicting Rice Yield by Current Crop Models Under a Wide Range of Climatic Conditions

Predicting rice (Oryza sativa) productivity under future climates is important for global food security. Ecophysiological crop models in combination with climate model outputs are commonly used in yield prediction, but uncertainties associated with crop models remain largely unquantified. We evaluated 13 rice models against multi-year experimental yield data at four sites with diverse climatic conditions in Asia and examined whether different modeling approaches on major physiological processes attribute to the uncertainties of prediction to field measured yields and to the uncertainties of sensitivity to changes in temperature and CO2 concentration [CO2]. We also examined whether a use of an ensemble of crop models can reduce the uncertainties. Individual models did not consistently reproduce both experimental and regional yields well, and uncertainty was larger at the warmest and coolest sites. The variation in yield projections was larger among crop models than variation resulting from 16 global climate model-based scenarios. However, the mean of predictions of all crop models reproduced experimental data, with an uncertainty of less than 10 percent of measured yields. Using an ensemble of eight models calibrated only for phenology or five models calibrated in detail resulted in the uncertainty equivalent to that of the measured yield in well-controlled agronomic field experiments. Sensitivity analysis indicates the necessity to improve the accuracy in predicting both biomass and harvest index in response to increasing [CO2] and temperature.

crop-model ensembles↗

A scheme for the uniform mapping and monitoring of earth resources and environmental complexes using ERTS-1 imagery

There are no author-identified significant results in this report. Progress on plans for the development and testing of a practical procedure and system for the uniform mapping and monitoring of natural ecosystems and environmental complexes from space-acquired imagery is discussed. With primary emphasis on ERTS-1 imagery, but supported by appropriate aircraft photography as necessary, the objectives are to accomplish the following: (1) Develop and test in a few selected sites and areas of the western United States a standard format for an ecological and land use legend for making natural resource inventories on a simulated global basis. (2) Based on these same limited geographic areas, identify the potentialities and limitations of the legend concept for the recognition and annotation of ecological analogs and environmental complexes. An additional objective is to determine the optimum combination of space photography, aerial photography, ground data, human data analysis, and automatic data analysis for estimating crop yield in the rice growing areas of California and Louisiana.

Poulton, C. E.↗