Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “cycle life prediction”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 127 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Prediction for Pressure Differential Across HEPA Filter Media Based on Media Characteristics and Particle Size Distribution

A new method for predicting the pressure drop across High Efficiency Particulate Air (HEPA) filter media is proposed based upon mass deposited onto the filter and known physical characteristics of the filter media. Detailed are the methods used in conjunction with current filter loading models to predict the pressure drop, as well as tests conducted to validate the methods. The benefit of a prediction model for practical use lies in the manufacturing and service life of nuclear grade HEPA filters. HEPA filters for use in nuclear facilities have a prescribed expiration date and a maximum allowable operating pressure drop. Therefore, the ability to predict the pressure drop across a filter and relate it to an expected length of service time can enable a reduction in wasted filters. This will allow for more informed decisions to be made based upon the dictated life cycle of the filters. Also, understanding and predicting how the pressure drop of HEPA filter media behaves as a function of physical characteristics and loaded mass can assist in future design and manufacturing of filter media. Currently, most existing pressure drop models are either computationally based or analytical methods relying on data gathered during tests. Neither are practical for prediction; the computational methods are difficult to implement, and the current analytical methods are more useful as tools for analysis. The current analytical model developed by Bergman et al. is based upon the pressure drop from each media fiber and modeling the deposited particles as newly formed fibers. Using Bergman's model and the media properties, air properties, and known aerosol particle size distribution, a pressure drop curve as a function of loaded mass can be created. This curve implies initial loading in the depth of the filter media with a transition to pure surface loading on the filter face, and a sensitivity to an evolving particle size distribution as mass continues to load onto the filter. To implement the predictive model, knowledge of the mean filter fiber diameter and porosity of the filter media is required. Traditionally, the mean fiber diameter is calculated as an effective diameter from prior media testing, however, in this study a Scanning Electron Microscope (SEM) technique is used to acquire this variable. Validation of the predictive model is provided by flat sheet media tests under a controlled environment with a measured particle size distribution of the challenge aerosol and shows reasonable preliminary agreement.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2022

Future-proofing photovoltaics module reliability through a unifying predictive modeling framework

Solar energy, especially photovoltaics (PV), plays a significant role in the global energy transition required for decarbonization. Technological advancements in increasing efficiencies coupled with cost reductions through economies of scale made PV a cost-competitive energy source set to exceed the milestone of 1 TW globally deployed capacity in 2022. However, ongoing downward price pressure coupled with increasing service life expectations creates tremendous challenges for reliability engineers in ensuring the safe and reliable operation of PV modules and systems over the anticipated service life. Today's reliability research efforts aim for module lifetimes of up to 50 years. Still, our current tools fall short in accurately assessing degradation mechanisms and failure modes over such extended periods. We argue that the well-established PV reliability learning cycle needs to be accelerated to keep up with the rapid technological advancements and high expectations that are put on PV and its role in the global energy transition. In this article, we explore the evolution of the PV reliability learning cycle and highlight the significance that predictive modeling capabilities will have on future PV module reliability. We propose creating a unifying modeling framework - which once established will enable the holistic assessment of PV module reliability, accelerate the PV reliability learning cycle, and bring us closer to quantitative service life predictions of PV modules.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Predicting Li-Ion Battery Capacity Fade Using Early-Life Data and a Hybrid Data-Driven Gaussian Process-Bayesian Regression Approach

Accurately predicting Li-ion battery capacity trajectories using early-life data can dramatically improve battery-life understandings and be used to rapidly evaluate design/cost/performance trade-offs when developing new battery materials. Accurate early-life predictions enable researchers to quickly iterate over cell designs and material precursor properties without consistently cycling cells to failure. To this end, we present a toolbox that uses a combined Gaussian Process and Bayesian regression approach that capitalizes on signals other than just capacity (e.g., dQ/dV, voltage drops) to rapidly predict capacity-fade trajectories. The prediction tool uses Bayesian regression to fit functional forms, e.g., power law, sigmoids, etc., to predict capacity-fade dynamics. By fitting functional forms, the capacity fade can be interrogated at any point in the future, allowing for early cell-failure prediction. Additionally, Bayesian regression allows for accurate uncertainty estimates that account for cell-to-cell variability (aleatoric uncertainty) and the lack of observation data (epistemic uncertainty). By only using early cycle data to predict the capacity fade trajectory, uncertainty bounds at end-of-life can be extremely large. The large uncertainty bounds are further exacerbated because there is no systematic way to define the prior distribution of the functional forms' parameters. We improve our the predicted trajectory confidence interval of our predicted trajectory using two methods. First, we shows that a small amount of held-out cycling data is sufficientuse some train cells, that have been cycled to failure to derive information regarding the appropriate prior distributions for the functional forms' parameters of the functional form, effectively leading to data-driven priors.. We propose constructing the data-driven priors by first running a Bayesian regression starting with uninformed priors to generate intermediate cell-specific posterior parameter distributions. These posterior distributions are combined using a Ggaussian mixture model for each parameter to create the data-driven priors. These mixture models serve as the data-driven prior distributions for the parameters for. Second, we derive multiple features, e.g., C_dchg 0.5 DoD 0.5, log (|mean(dQ/dV_(w_3-w_0 ) (V)|), etc., from the train cellsheld-out cycling data, identify which the features are that best predicting capacity at early/mid-life cycles, and then create Ggaussian process regression models that are used for predicting capacity at early/mid-life cycles for the test cells (see blue dots with error bars in Fig 1b). Finally, these predicted data-points are used in addition to the actual early cycle data capacity fade to construct the Bayesian regression trajectory for the test cell s. Notably. We note that these two methods are complementary and can be combined with each other. We evaluate the performance of our proposed method on an testing open-source dataset from Iowa State University and Iowa Lakes Community College (ISU-ILCC). This dataset comprises of 251 nickel-manganese-cobalt/graphite Lithium-ion cells that are cycled under 63 different conditions. We compute the mean average percentage error (MAPE) and negative log predictive density (NLPD) to quantify the efficacy of our method. Our initial findings suggest that, when only few observations are available, for test cells, when using only Bayesian regression with uninformed priors, a power law functional provides the most accurate predictions. with very few data points. However, asHowever, a the number of data points increases, a twin sigmoidal function becomes more accurate as the number of observations further increases. We also find that using as little as 10% of the data set towards generating data-driven priors can lead to significant improvement in prediction accuracy when using early cycle data. Lastly, we found that augmenting early-cycle data with Gaussian process-predicted capacity data for Bayesian regression greatly improves the prediction accuracy. We will present a comprehensive comparison of our methods to other methods available in the literature and apply this method to additional battery datasets.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS1978

Strainrange partitioning behavior of the nickel-base superalloys, Rene 80 and 100

A study has been made to assess the ability of the method of Strainrange Partitioning (SRP) to both correlate and predict high-temperature low-cycle fatigue lives of nickel-base superalloys for gas turbine applications. SRP is shown to correlate the cyclic lives of the baseline tests to within factors of nearly two. The partitioned strainrage versus life relationships for uncoated Rene 80 and cast IN 100 have also been determined from the ductility normalized-strainrange partitioning equations. These were used to predict the cyclic lives of the baseline tests. Predicted and observed cyclic lives agreed to within factors of nearly three. The life predictability of the method is also verified for cast IN 100 by applying the baseline results to the cyclic-life prediction of a series of complex strain-cycling tests with multiple hold periods at constant strain. It is concluded that the method of SRP can correlate and predict the cyclic lives of laboratory specimens of the nickel-base superalloys evaluated in this program.

Halford, G. R.↗
NASA NTRS1979

Technical evaluation report of the Specialists Meeting on Characterization of Low Cycle High Temperature Fatigue by the Strainrange Partitioning Method

The ability of the Strainrange Partitioning Method SRP was evaluated to correlate the creep-fatigue behavior of gas turbine materials and to predict the creep fatigue life of laboratory specimens subjected to complex cycling conditions. A reference body of high temperature creep fatigue data which can be used in the evaluation of other SRP and low cycle high temperature fatigue predictive techniques was provided.

Drapier, J. M.↗
DOE OSTI2025

An Experimental and Computational Approach to Investigating CO 2 Uptake of Cellulose-producing Algae from Cellulosic Ethanol Production (Final Report)

This project combined experimental algal cultures with predictive quantum calculations to evaluate system-level CO 2 uptake and conversion efficiency of cellulose-producing Nannochloropsis sp. algae. Recently, Nannochloropsis sp. has garnered attention as a novel host organism for converting low-cost CO 2 produced from cellulosic ethanol fermentations into algal lipids for biodiesel production and microcrystalline cellulose as a high-value co-product. As depicted in the figure below, this project (1) optimized Nannochloropsis salina (N. salina) cultures on effluent gas produced directly from cellulosic ethanol fermentation, (2) characterized the fermentation products, quantify cellulose production, and calculate CO 2 uptake efficiency with predictive quantum calculations, (3) conducted a life cycle and techno economic analysis of the proposed integration, and (4) provided training opportunities to students attending UC Riverside.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
NASA NTRS1972

Project Fog Drops. Part 1: Investigations of warm fog properties

A detailed study was made of the micrometeorological and microphysical characteristics of eleven valley fogs occurring near Elmira, New York. Observations were made of temperature, dew point, wind speed and direction, dew deposition, vertical wind velocity, and net radiative flux. In fog, visibility was continuously recorded and periodic measurements were made of liquid water content and drop-size distribution. The observations were initiated in late evening and continued until the time of fog dissipation. The vertical distribution of temperature in the lowest 300 meters and cloud nucleus concentration at several heights were measured from an aircraft before fog nucleus concentrations at several heights were measured from an aircraft before fog formation. A numerical model was developed to investigate the life cycle of radiation fogs. The model predicts the temporal evolution of the vertical distributions of temperature, water vapor, and liquid water as determined by the turbulent transfer of heat and moisture. The model includes the nocturnal cooling of the earth's surface, dew formation, fog drop sedimentation, and the absorption of infrared radiation by fog.

Pilie, R. J.↗
NASA NTRS1976

Strainrange partitioning behavior of an automotive turbine alloy

This report addresses Strainrange Partitioning, an advanced life prediction analysis procedure, as applied to CA-101 (cast IN 792 + Hf), an alloy proposed for turbine disks in automotive gas turbine engines. The methodology was successful in predicting specimen life under thermal-mechanical cycling, to within a factor of + or - 2.

Annis, C. G.↗
NASA NTRS1977

Prediction technique

Prediction techniques are discussed for the cycle life of nickel cadmium space cells. Equations and graphs which incorporate such parameters as temperature and recharge are presented.

Lander, J.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Creep fatigue life prediction for engine hot section materials (isotropic): Third year progress review

This program is designed to investigate fundamental damage processes, identify modeling strategies, and develop practical models which can be used to guide the early design and development of new engines and to increase the durability of existing engines. A review is given of the base program, completed in 1984, which included the comparison and evaluation of several popular high-temperature life prediction approaches as applied to continuously cycled isothermal specimen tests. The option program, of which one year is completed, is designed to develop models which can account for complex cycles and loadings, such as thermomechanical cycling, cumulative damage, multiaxial stress/strain rates, and environmental effects.

Nelson, Richard S.↗
NASA NTRS1985

The role of microstructure and phase distribution in the failure mechanisms and life prediction model for PSZ coatings

Partially Stabilized Zirconia (PSZ) may become widely used for Thermal Barrier Coatings (TBC). Failure of these coatings can occur due to thermal fatigue in oxidizing atmospheres. The failure is due to the strains that develop due to thermal gradients, differences in thermal expansion coefficients, and oxidation of the bond coating. The role of microstructure and the cubic, tetragonal, and monoclinic phase distribution in the strain development and subsequent failure will be discussed. An X-ray diffraction technique for accurate determination of the fraction of each phase in PSZ will be applied to understanding the phase transformations and strain development. These results will be discussed in terms of developing a model for life prediction in PSZ coatings during thermal cycling.

Sisson, R. D., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Low Noise Research Fan Stage Design

This report describes the design of a Low Noise ADP Research Fan stage. The fan is a variable pitch design which is designed at the cruise pitch condition. Relative to the cruise setting, the blade is closed at takeoff and opened for reverse thrust operation. The fan stage is a split flow design with fan exit guide vanes and core stators. This fan stage design was combined with a nacelle and engine core duct to form a powered fan/nacelle, subscale model. This model is intended for use in aerodynamic performance, acoustic and structural testing in a wind tunnel. The model has a 22-inch outer fan diameter and a hub-to-top ratio of 0.426 which permits the use of existing NASA fan and cowl force balance designs and rig drive system. The design parameters were selected to permit valid acoustic and aerodynamic comparisons with the PW 17-inch rig previously tested under NASA contract. The fan stage design is described in detail. The results of the design axisymmetric analysis at aerodynamic design condition are included. The structural analysis of the fan rotor and attachment is described including the material selections and stress analysis. The blade and attachment are predicted to have adequate low cycle fatigue life, and an acceptable operating range without resonant stress or flutter. The stage was acoustically designed with airfoil counts in the fan exit guide vane and core stator to minimize noise. A fan-FEGV tone analysis developed separately under NASA contract was used to determine these airfoil counts. The fan stage design was matched to a nacelle design to form a fan/nacelle model for wind tunnel testing. The nacelle design was developed under a separate NASA contract. The nacelle was designed with an axisymmetric inlet, cowl and nozzle for convenience in testing and fabrication. Aerodynamic analysis of the nacelle confirmed the required performance at various aircraft operating conditions.

Hobbs, David E.↗
NASA NTRS1979

Predictive analysis of metal fatigue in the high cyclic life range

This report summarizes various aspects of predictive approaches in high cycle fatigue, hcf. The distinction between hcf and low cycle fatigue, lcf, is discussed in relation to the transition life and strainrange, and curves are presented to establish regions wherein each range predominates depending on the properties of any material of interest. The role of loading order on hcf in cumulative damage analysis is also discussed, together with mean stress effects and their relaxation. Also briefly discussed are high temperature fatigue and ultra-high cycle fatigue.

Manson, S. S.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Turbine blade nonlinear structural and life analysis

The utility of advanced structural analysis and life prediction techniques was evaluated for the life assessment of a commercial air-cooled turbine blade with a history of tip cracking. Three dimensional, nonlinear finite element structural analyses were performed for the blade tip region. The computed strain-temperature history of the critical location was imposed on a uniaxial strain controlled test specimen to evaluate the validity of the structural analysis method. Experimental results indicated higher peak stresses and greater stress relaxation than the analytical predictions. Life predictions using the Strainrange Partitioning and Frequency Modified approaches predicted 1200 to 4420 cycles and 2700 cycles to crack initiation, respectively, compared to an observed life of 3000 cycles.

Mcknight, R. L.↗
NASA NTRS1974

Cyclic fatigue analysis of rocket thrust chambers. Volume 2: Attitude control thruster high cycle fatigue

A finite element stress analysis was performed for the film cooled throat section of an attitude control thruster. The anlaysis employed the RETSCP finite element computer program. The analysis included thermal and pressure loads, and the effects of temperature dependent material properties, to determine the strain range corresponding to the thruster operating cycle. The configuration and operating conditions considered, correspond to a flightweight integrated thruster assembly which was thrust pulse tested. The computed strain range was used in conjuction with Haynes 188 Universal Slopes minimum life data to predict throat section fatigue life. The computed number of cycles to failure was greater than the number of pulses to which the thruster was experimentally subjected without failure.

Miller, R. W.↗
NASA NTRS1978

Design and fabrication of the Mini-Brayton Recuperator (MBR)

Development of a recuperator for a 2.0 kW closed Brayton space power system is described. The plate-fin heat exchanger is fabricated entirely from Hastelloy X and is designed for 10 years continuous operation at 1000 K (1300 F) with a Xenon-helium working fluid. Special design provisions assure uniform flow distribution, crucial for meeting 0.975 temperature effectiveness. Low-cycle fatigue, resulting from repeated startup and shutdown cycles, was identified as the most critical structural design problem. It is predicted that the unit has a minimum fatigue life of 220 cycles. This is in excess of the BIPS requirement of 100 cycles. Heat transfer performance and thermal cycle testing with air, using a prototype unit, verified that all design objectives can be met.

Killackey, J. J.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Turbine blade tip durability analysis

An air-cooled turbine blade from an aircraft gas turbine engine chosen for its history of cracking was subjected to advanced analytical and life-prediction techniques. The utility of advanced structural analysis techniques and advanced life-prediction techniques in the life assessment of hot section components are verified. Three dimensional heat transfer and stress analyses were applied to the turbine blade mission cycle and the results were input into advanced life-prediction theories. Shortcut analytical techniques were developed. The proposed life-prediction theories are evaluated.

Mcknight, R. L.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Modeling time-dependent corrosion fatigue crack propagation in 7000 series aluminum alloys

Stress corrosion cracking and corrosion fatigue experiments were conducted with the susceptible S-L orientation of AA7075-T651, immersed in acidified and inhibited NaCl solution, to provide a basis for incorporating environmental effects into fatigue crack propagation life prediction codes such as NASA FLAGRO. This environment enhances da/dN by five to ten-fold compared to fatigue in moist air. Time-based crack growth rates from quasi-static load experiments are an order of magnitude too small for accurate linear superposition prediction of da/dN for loading frequencies above 0.001 Hz. Alternate methods of establishing da/dt, based on rising-load or ripple-load-enhanced crack tip strain rate, do not increase da/dt and do not improve linear superposition. Corrosion fatigue is characterized by two regimes of frequency dependence; da/dN is proportional to f(exp -1) below 0.001 Hz and to F(exp 0) to F(exp -0.1) for higher frequencies. Da/dN increases mildly both with increasing hold-time at K(sub max) and with increasing rise-time for a range of loading waveforms. The mild time-dependence is due to cycle-time-dependent corrosion fatigue growth. This behavior is identical for S-L nd L-T crack orientations. The frequency response of environmental fatigue in several 7000 series alloys is variable and depends on undefined compositional or microstructural variables. Speculative explanations are based on the effect of Mg on occluded crack chemistry and embritting hydrogen uptake, or on variable hydrogen diffusion in the crack tip process zone. Cracking in the 7075/NaCl system is adequately described for life prediction by linear superposition for prolonged load-cycle periods, and by a time-dependent upper bound relationship between da/dN and delta K for moderate loading times.

Mason, Mark E.↗