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At least 127 records · Page 7

A weather pattern responsible for increasing wildfires in the western United States

Abstract The western United States (U.S.) has been experiencing more severe wildfires, in part due to climate change, but the underlying synoptic patterns and their modulation in driving fire weather is unclear. Here we investigated the relationship between weather regimes (WRs) and fire weather indices, specifically vapor pressure deficit (VPD) and the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index. By identifying five singular WRs using k-means clustering, we found that a particular regime (WR-2), one characterized by a distinct tripolar wave train pattern over the continental U.S., has exhibited an increased frequency since 1980. The ascribed WR-2 regime was found to be mainly responsible for rising trends in the fire weather indices, especially VPD. Further, the average fire indices of the WR-2 regime played a more important role than the frequency in shaping the rising trends in the fire weather indices. The increased frequency of the WR-2 WR was mainly attributed to anthropogenic forcing and, the year-to-year variation of the frequency was associated with sea surface temperature anomalies over the subtropical eastern Pacific. Human-induced climate change might have furthered the exacerbation of wildfire danger in the western U.S. by modulating the behaviors of WRs and fire weather indices.

Zhang, Wei (ORCID:0000000221698749)↗

Projections of wildfire risk and activities under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios

Wildfires are important ecosystem processes that have a significant impact on terrestrial vegetation, environment, and climate. This study investigates how future wildfire risk and activities could change under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming scenarios relative to pre-industrial levels using a modified McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDIn) and the CLM4.5-BGC land surface model. Sixteen Earth System Models (ESMs) from CMIP5 and CMIP6 were employed to supply the variables of climate change under low, middle, and high greenhouse emission scenarios in the 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C scenarios. The ensemble means from the FFDIn and results from the CLM4.5-BGC with multiple forcings show that the dry areas in the southwestern US, Brazilian Highlands, and Arabian islands are projected to face higher wildfire risk with larger burned areas and more carbon emissions under a warmer climate. The Congo Basin and part of the Amazon could have a lower wildfire risk with smaller burned areas and less carbon emissions. The absolute changes in the projected FFDIn are small, although large increases are observed in boreal areas, particularly in the winter and spring. Burned area and carbon emissions are projected to increase in general in the boreal area but decrease in northeastern Asia. Compared to the 1.5 °C scenario, the wildfire risk and burned area levels are projected to increase under the 2.0 °C scenario except in the western Amazon. However, fire carbon emissions are projected to decrease more in tropical areas under the 2.0 °C scenario. The different change directions in eastern North America and eastern China produced by the FFDIn and CLM4.5-BGC suggest the potential effect of non-meteorological elements on fire activities.

1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming↗

A comparative analysis of US state-level policies and programs to advance energy justice

Abstract The US energy system is undergoing massive changes that have environmental, technological, and societal implications. Decisions and actions taken now will dramatically alter the trajectory of our future energy system. Though new technologies can lessen the dangers of anthropogenic climate change, an effective and sustainable transition requires addressing social justice issues as a priority. To this end, many states have implemented policies and programs that address energy justice. A formal survey of state-level energy justice policies and programs is needed to better understand the methods used to assist communities targeted and the impacts of these efforts. Such an analysis should include an analysis of the metrics used to judge the effectiveness of the enacted policies and programs. In this paper, we analyze the energy justice policies and programs of seven different US states. From this analysis, we identify three important aspects of state energy policies. First, most policies and programs do not articulate their goals, nor cite metrics to judge their successes. This lack of transparency and accountability is a major roadblock to truly just solutions. Second, states focus on a very narrow range of solutions for energy justice issues. The most prevalent being utility bill assistance, which does not address the systemic and enduring challenges faced by many low-income or historically marginalized communities. Lastly, comprehensive energy policy does not acknowledge and address housing, employment, education, and healthcare inequities that exacerbate energy system inequities. The work presented in this paper sheds light on the progress of state-level energy justice policies and programs across the United States, and we argue more work needs to be done to understand best practices in energy justice policymaking.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Effects of Desiccation and Freezing on Microbial Ionizing Radiation Survivability: Considerations for Mars Sample Return

Increasingly, national space agencies are expanding their goals to include Mars exploration with sample return. To better protect Earth and its biosphere from potential extraterrestrial sources of contamination, as set forth in the Outer Space Treaty of 1967, international efforts to develop planetary protection measures strive to understand the danger of cross-contamination processes in Mars sample return missions. We aim to better understand the impact of the martian surface on microbial dormancy and survivability. Radiation resistance of microbes is a key parameter in considering survivability of microbes over geologic times on the frigid, arid surface of Mars that is bombarded by solar and galactic cosmic radiation. We tested the influence of desiccation and freezing on the ionizing radiation survival of six model microorganisms: vegetative cells of two bacteria (Deinococcus radiodurans, Escherichia coli) and a strain of budding yeast (Saccharomyces cerevisiae); and vegetative cells and endospores of three Bacillus bacteria (B. subtilis, B. megaterium, B. thuringiensis). Desiccation and freezing greatly increased radiation survival of vegetative polyploid microorganisms when applied separately, and when combined, desiccation and freezing increased radiation survival even more so. Thus, the radiation survival threshold of polyploid D. radiodurans cells can be extended from the already high value of 25 kGy in liquid culture to an astonishing 140 kGy when the cells are both desiccated and frozen. However, such synergistic radioprotective effects of desiccation and freezing were not observed in monogenomic or digenomic Bacillus cells and endospores, which are generally sterilized by 12 kGy. This difference is associated with a critical requirement for survivability under radiation, that is, repair of genome damage caused by radiation. Deinococcus radiodurans and S. cerevisiae accumulate similarly high levels of the Mn antioxidants that are required for extreme radiation resistance, as do endospores, though they greatly exceed spores in radioresistance because they contain multiple identical genome copies, which in D. radiodurans are joined by persistent Holliday junctions. We estimate ionizing radiation survival limits of polyploid DNA-based life-forms to be hundreds of millions of years of background radiation while buried in the martian subsurface. Our findings imply that forward contamination of Mars will essentially be permanent, and backward contamination is a possibility if life ever existed on Mars.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

End-to-end learning of multiple sequence alignments with differentiable Smith–Waterman

Abstract Motivation Multiple sequence alignments (MSAs) of homologous sequences contain information on structural and functional constraints and their evolutionary histories. Despite their importance for many downstream tasks, such as structure prediction, MSA generation is often treated as a separate pre-processing step, without any guidance from the application it will be used for. Results Here, we implement a smooth and differentiable version of the Smith–Waterman pairwise alignment algorithm that enables jointly learning an MSA and a downstream machine learning system in an end-to-end fashion. To demonstrate its utility, we introduce SMURF (Smooth Markov Unaligned Random Field), a new method that jointly learns an alignment and the parameters of a Markov Random Field for unsupervised contact prediction. We find that SMURF learns MSAs that mildly improve contact prediction on a diverse set of protein and RNA families. As a proof of concept, we demonstrate that by connecting our differentiable alignment module to AlphaFold2 and maximizing predicted confidence, we can learn MSAs that improve structure predictions over the initial MSAs. Interestingly, the alignments that improve AlphaFold predictions are self-inconsistent and can be viewed as adversarial. This work highlights the potential of differentiable dynamic programming to improve neural network pipelines that rely on an alignment and the potential dangers of optimizing predictions of protein sequences with methods that are not fully understood. Availability and implementation Our code and examples are available at: https://github.com/spetti/SMURF. Supplementary information Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DNA double-strand break movement in heterochromatin depends on the histone acetyltransferase dGcn5

Abstract Cells employ diverse strategies to repair double-strand breaks (DSBs), a dangerous form of DNA damage that threatens genome integrity. Eukaryotic nuclei consist of different chromatin environments, each displaying distinct molecular and biophysical properties that can significantly influence the DSB-repair process. DSBs arising in the compact and silenced heterochromatin domains have been found to move to the heterochromatin periphery in mouse and Drosophila to prevent aberrant recombination events. However, it is poorly understood how chromatin components, such as histone post-translational modifications, contribute to these DSB movements within heterochromatin. Using irradiation as well as locus-specific DSB induction in Drosophila tissues and cultured cells, we find enrichment of histone H3 lysine 9 acetylation (H3K9ac) at DSBs in heterochromatin but not euchromatin. We find this increase is mediated by the histone acetyltransferase dGcn5, which rapidly localizes to heterochromatic DSBs. Moreover, we demonstrate that in the absence of dGcn5, heterochromatic DSBs display impaired recruitment of the SUMO E3 ligase Nse2/Qjt and fail to relocate to the heterochromatin periphery to complete repair. In summary, our results reveal a previously unidentified role for dGcn5 and H3K9ac in heterochromatic DSB repair and underscore the importance of differential chromatin responses at heterochromatic and euchromatic DSBs to promote safe repair.

Biochemistry & Molecular Biology↗

Short- and long-term responses of photosynthetic capacity to temperature in four boreal tree species in a free-air warming and rainfall manipulation experiment

Abstract High latitude forests cope with considerable variation in moisture and temperature at multiple temporal scales. To assess how their photosynthetic physiology responds to short- and long-term temperature variation, we measured photosynthetic capacity for four tree species growing in an open-air experiment in the boreal-temperate ecotone `Boreal Forest Warming at an Ecotone in Danger' (B4WarmED). The experiment factorially manipulated temperature above- and below-ground (ambient, +3.2 °C) and summer rainfall (ambient, 40% removal). We measured A/Ci curves at 18, 25 and 32 °C for individuals of two boreal (Pinus banksiana Lamb., Betula papyrifera Marsh.) and two temperate species (Pinus strobus L., Acer rubrum L.) experiencing the long-term warming and/or reduced-rainfall conditions induced by our experimental treatments. We calculated the apparent photosynthetic capacity descriptors VCmax,Ci and Jmax,Ci and their ratio for each measurement temperate. We hypothesized that (i) VCmax,Ci and Jmax,Ci would be down-regulated in plants experiencing longer term (e.g., weeks to months) warming and reduced rainfall (i.e., have lower values at a given measurement temperature), as is sometimes found in the literature, and that (ii) plants growing at warmer temperatures or from warmer ranges would show greater sensitivity (steeper slope) to short-term (minutes to hours) temperature variation. Neither hypothesis was supported as a general trend across the four species, as there was not a significant main effect (across species) of either warming or rainfall reduction on VCmax,Ci and Jmax,Ci. All species markedly increased VCmax,Ci and Jmax,Ci (and decreased their ratio) with short-term increases in temperature (i.e., contrasting values at 18, 25 and 32 °C), and those responses were independent of long-term treatments and did not differ among species. The Jmax,Ci:VCmax,Ci ratio was, however, significantly lower across species in warmed and reduced rainfall treatments. Collectively, these results suggest that boreal trees possess considerable short-term plasticity that may allow homeostasis of VCmax,Ci and Jmax,Ci to a longer term temperature treatment. Our results also caution against extrapolating results obtained under controlled and markedly contrasting temperature treatments to responses of photosynthetic parameters to more modest temperature changes expected in the near-term with climate warming in field conditions.

Forestry↗

Interplay of freeze-in and freeze-out: Lepton-flavored dark matter and muon colliders

We study a lepton-flavored dark matter model and its signatures at a future muon collider. We focus on the less-explored regime of feeble dark matter interactions, which suppresses the dangerous lepton-flavor-violating processes, gives rise to dark matter freeze-in production, and leads to long-lived particle signatures at colliders. We find that the interplay of dark matter freeze-in and its mediator freeze-out gives rise to an upper bound of around TeV scales on the dark matter mass. The signatures of this model depend on the lifetime of the mediator and can range from generic prompt decays to more exotic long-lived particle signals. In the prompt region, we calculate the signal yield, study useful kinematics cuts, and report tolerable systematics that would allow for a 5 σ discovery. In the long-lived region, we calculate the number of charged tracks and displaced lepton signals of our model in different parts of the detector and uncover kinematic features that can be used for background rejection. We show that, unlike in hadron colliders, multiple production channels contribute significantly, which leads to sharply distinct kinematics for electroweakly charged long-lived particle signals. Ultimately, the collider signatures of this lepton-flavored dark matter model are common among models of electroweak-charged new physics, rendering this model a useful and broadly applicable benchmark model for future muon collider studies that can help inform work on detector design and studies of systematics. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

Ransomware Security Threat Modeling for Photovoltaic Systems

Ransomware attacks are one of the most dangerous cyber-attacks which can disrupt the operation of photovoltaic (PV) systems and incur an enormous economic loss. This paper introduces a ransomware security threat modeling method that identifies potential vulnerabilities, threats, and impacts of ransomware attacks targeting a PV system. Here, the security threat modeling consists of three steps: 1) system identification, 2) threat modeling that finds existing vulnerabilities, 3) attack modeling that designs attack profiles to succeed ransomware attacks, and 4) penetration testing that performs authorized cyber-attacks and analyzes impacts of the ransomware attack profiles using a real-time hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) PV system security testbed.

attack modeling↗

VAC: A Software Approach to Resilient SCADA Automation

To better secure critical infrastructure, especially power systems, this paper introduces a virtual SCADA automation controller. The automation controller is a gateway into a power subsystem, making it a valuable target for cyber-attacks that could cut it off from the control center and cause a loss of view and control. To prevent this, the Virtual Automation Controller (VAC) is a backup device that mirrors the capabilities of the physical controller. It can communicate via Modbus and DNP3 and is containerized so it can be deployed on a variety of platforms. Furthermore, it utilizes software-defined networking to quickly disconnect a failed automation controller and preserve its state for forensics. The VAC gives system operators time to replace the failed controller and prevents dangerous and costly damage to power systems. The VAC is compared against the SEL 3505-3 RTAC and shown to have the necessary features to act as a failover controller.

Johnson, Jordan↗

Sudden-Discharge Cycling Characteristics and Millisecond Dynamic Behaviors of a HTS Stainless-Steel Insulated Double-Pancake Coil With Thin Copper Plates

We have tested an intermediate-sized HTS stainless-steel (co-wound) insulated double pancake coil (~132 turns per coil) and discovered dynamic effects during sudden discharge on both millisecond and second scales. For soft break, the power supply is turned off suddenly but the shunt resistor (164 milliohm) is still connected; for hard break, a high voltage contactor is used to suddenly open the circuit so that the leads are completely open. Hard break is dangerous to traditionally insulated LTS magnets, but the SS-insulated HTS DPC retained integrity over ¡80 charge-discharge cycles. Voltage decay curves for soft and hard breaks are studied on short and long timescales. On long timescales, we observe the expected exponential decay and measure the time constant to calculate contact resistance. On short timescales, we observe highly dynamic effects: a hyper-exponential decay suggesting that the inductance or contact resistance is suddenly changing with time, likely an indication of the RL circuit forming. Moreover, peak voltage immediately (ms) after the sudden discharge were collected and compared. It is found that the peak voltage in soft-discharge is proportional to the applied current, while the those in hard-break has a unique pattern and tends to stay flat even though the applied current increases.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

The Role of Azimuthal Prestress in the Longitudinal Degradation of Nb 3 Sn Superconducting Magnets

Superconducting magnet coils are subject to enormous electro-magnetic forces which push the cables away from the winding pole, and against the surrounding structure. This structure is usually optimized trying to limit the overall motion and the strains experienced by the superconducting elements. To achieve this, preload forces are applied both in the coil cross-section and along its length. If the e.m. forces overcome these preloads, separation between the coil and the pole occurs, resulting in an overall loss of rigidity. During the magnet design process, it is often tempting to treat the optimization of the azimuthal and longitudinal preload systems separately. However, the two are inextricably related: as the cross-section preload increases, friction can prevent any motion in the longitudinal plane, and decreasing it can instead allow dangerous motions in the conductor ends. The latter can result in very high strains and, in Nb 3 Sn conductors, damage that can prevent the magnet to reach the desired performances. In an attempt to define design guidelines, in this paper we use simplified numerical models to compute, as a function of the in-plane prestress, the variation of the peak strains in the end region of the coils. Finally, we investigate the impact of the azimuthal prestress on a real magnet case, the High-Luminosity Nb 3 Sn Quadrupole MQXF.

Nb3Sn↗

Flux Balancing Control of Ungapped Nanocrystalline Core-Based Transformer in Dual Active Bridge Converters

Transformer flux dc bias is a critical issue, impacting the reliable operation of dual active bridge (DAB) converters especially when ungapped high permeability nanocrystalline core is used. Steady state current dc bias can easily saturate ungapped nanocrystalline transformers, and it is even more dangerous in transient conditions. A dc bias model is proposed to analyze steady state dc bias in different load conditions. The magnetizing current detection is necessary for closed-loop control of dc bias; conductors' position is shown to impact sensor noise, and it is analyzed in detail. To deal with both steady state and transient dc bias, a unified flux balancing control (UFBC) is proposed introducing a predictive bias suppression (PBS) method with closed-loop flux balancing control (CFBC). With the proposed PBS, both primary/secondary current balance and flux balance can be achieved within one switching cycle using UFBC. Power characteristics and interaction between power control and flux balancing control of DAB converters are analyzed, and the CFBC needs to work in a low bandwidth due to sensor bandwidth limitation and interaction between power control and flux balancing control. Lastly, the UFBC is verified on a 300-kW cascaded DAB converter prototype.

42 ENGINEERING↗

A Strategy for Forced Oscillation Suppression

Wide-area time-synchronized measurements have recently revealed troublesome forced oscillations (FOs) within modern synchronized power grids. In some cases, these FOs represent a dangerous hazard to the system. Recent research has focused on locating the source of FOs to provide operators with knowledge for mitigating their impact locally. This paper presents a complementary mitigation strategy, which is to purposely induce a second oscillation into the grid which cancels the impact of the FO. Such a strategy is complementary in that it may provide valuable time to operators attempting to locate the FOs source and to determine how to rectify it. This paper presents a suppression control strategy which modulates controllable devices to automatically cancel the impact of the FO without the need for locating the source of the original FO. The strategy is based upon tuned feedback control. In this study, the approach is demonstrated on a simulation system via modulation of inverter-based generation.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Decision-Dependent Uncertainty-Aware Distribution System Planning Under Wildfire Risk

The interaction between power systems and wildfires can be dangerous and costly. Distribution grids can be liable for the outbreak of wildfires during extreme weather. In wildfire-prone areas, investment planning should consider the impact of operational actions on wildfire-related uncertainties affecting line failure likelihood. Here, in this case, endogenous-based uncertainty modeling should comprise the backbone of the investment planning model viz-a-viz the inability of standard exogenous-based uncertainty modeling. Therefore, we propose a decision-dependent uncertainty (DDU) aware methodology to optimize investment portfolios for distribution systems, considering that high power-flow levels in high-threat areas can ignite wildfires and increase line failure probability. The methodology identifies the best combination of upgrades (new lines, hardening existing lines, and placing switching devices). Methodologically, we propose a two-stage distributionally robust planning optimization problem with DDU that considers the distribution system's multiperiod operation. The first stage determines optimal switching actions and line investments, and the second stage evaluates the worst-case expected operational cost under a DDU framework designed to account for the endogenous impact of power-flow levels and hardening investment decisions in the line failure probabilities. An iterative method is tailored to handle the problem and numerical experiments demonstrate a more prepared grid to deal with wildfire risk.

Power systems investment planning↗

Catching up with the trees: empirical advancements to improve herbaceous representation in models

Ecosystems dominated by herbaceous vegetation (i.e. nonwoody species) represent c. 40% of the terrestrial land surface on Earth (White et al., 2000), facilitate large quantities of carbon sequestration (reviewed by Bai & Cotrufo, 2022), and provide much of the food production for humans (O'Mara, 2012). Many of these ecosystems are currently in danger of being lost due to global change drivers, shrub encroachment, and calls for afforestation (Bond et al., 2019). Furthermore, our predictive understanding of these systems is limited, which can be seen from high levels of uncertainty in modeled future carbon (C) storage of these systems (e.g. fig. 3 in McGuire et al., 2018).

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Flash Heating of a Hollow Rod to Determine Thermal Properties

In a nuclear reactor, prolonged exposure to high neutron flux levels can change material properties of reactor components. Due to the danger posed to personnel by highly radioactive components such as spent fuel, noncontact methods must be used to determine these properties. The objective of the current research is to test the viability of using a flash-heating method to determine the thermal diffusivity of a silicon carbide (SiC) tube, which could be used as cladding for a nuclear fuel rod. The flash-heating experiment was conducted at Oak Ridge National Laboratory and temperature results were analyzed as a two-Dimensional cross section which assumed axial symmetry. The model was fitted iteratively to the temperature measurements using nonlinear regression which required values for thermal diffusivity, Biot number and a term to determine the magnitude of the heat absorbed by the flash. The method could be expanded in the future to estimate the thermal diffusivity of spent nuclear fuel rods in an effort to increase the certainty of new reactor designs using precise thermal properties throughout the core life. A statistical analysis of the results of this work is provided as part of the analysis.

McMasters, Robert L [Virginia Military Institute, ↗

Smart Adaptive Structures for an Ocean Wave Energy Converter

Ocean wave energy converters face significant challenges including cost-effectiveness, minimizing maintenance requirements, and withstanding extreme conditions. However, by utilizing smart materials, these converters could overcome these challenges. Such energy harvesters could use dielectric elastomer generators to convert ocean wave energy into electricity through their dynamic straining. Conversely, by applying electricity to these generators, they become actuators - dielectric elastomer actuators - thereby enabling them to alter their stiffness and adapt to the ever-changing ocean energy environments. Such active adaptation could enhance the converter's ability to: reach resonance with ocean waves and protect itself from dangerous waves. This study utilizes numerical analyses through the COMSOL software framework to evaluate the potential energy that could be harvested by a conceptual ocean wave energy converter based upon dielectric elastomer generators/actuators. The converter is composed of an external hull (that is a hollow cylinder), an inertial mass (that is a hollow cylinder and concentric with the hull), and 'spokes' - made of dielectric elastomer generators/actuators - that connect the hull to the inertial mass. Results of the numerical analyses include those outcomes arising from the conceptual converter being simulated via a sinusoidal motion analogous to ocean waves. That motion, therefore, causes relative motion between the converter's hull and inertial mass thereby dynamically stretching the corresponding connecting elastomers. The stretching of the elastomers enables them to 'gain elastic strain energy' and is, therefore, considered to be the theoretical limit of possible electrical energy conversion for the dielectric elastomer generator/actuator spokes. Additionally, the elastomer material properties of the spokes were altered to simulate the actuation of those same elastomers; with overall strain energy being subsequently investigated. Ultimately this is a preliminary study exploring the ability of such smart materials - electricity-generating and self-actuating elastomers - to actively adapt an ocean wave energy converter's structure to address and overcome the aforementioned challenges.

active materials↗