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At least 127 records · Page 7

The Spatial and Temporal Variability of the Clear Convective Boundary Layer at the ARM SGP Supersite

The convective boundary layer (CBL), also known as the mixing layer, constitutes the critical lower segment of the atmosphere that significantly influences daily human activities. The growing demand for precise weather forecasts is driven by the requirements of agriculture, transportation, and routine societal functions. Here, to enhance understanding of the CBL, this study investigates the spatiotemporal variability in the CBL and its controlling factors using four-year Doppler lidar, surface flux, and profiling measurements at five ARM Southern Great Plains sites within a 100 km radius. This investigation utilizes data collected exclusively under clear-sky conditions or scattered low-cloud conditions. Results reveal significant spatial differences in CBL evolutions. Daily mixing layer heights (MLHs) vary up to 1 km (30% of the mean) in late afternoon. There is a clear east–west contrast: western sites (C1, E32, E37) exhibit higher summer MLH (1.9–2.1 km) and vertical velocity variances (1.0–1.2 m 2 s −2 ) than eastern sites (1.6–1.8 km), reversing in winter. Temporally, the MLH peaks at 70% of the sunrise–sunset interval, the lagging heat flux (HF) peaks at 50%; and the seasonal MLH maxima lag the HF by approximately one month, influenced by nighttime PBL (planetary boundary layer) properties. The HF and lower tropospheric stability are the main factors of influence for the CBL, but site-specific dependencies highlight the critical roles of local factors, underscoring the need for including them in CBL modeling.

ARM SGP site↗

Inferring Stochastic Rates from Heterogeneous Snapshots of Particle Positions

Many imaging techniques for biological systems—like fixation of cells coupled with fluorescence microscopy—provide sharp spatial resolution in reporting locations of individuals at a single moment in time but also destroy the dynamics they intend to capture. In this study, these snapshot observations contain no information about individual trajectories, but still encode information about movement and demographic dynamics, especially when combined with a well-motivated biophysical model. The relationship between spatially evolving populations and single-moment representations of their collective locations is well-established with partial differential equations (PDEs) and their inverse problems. However, experimental data is commonly a set of locations whose number is insufficient to approximate a continuous-in-space PDE solution. Here, motivated by popular subcellular imaging data of gene expression, we embrace the stochastic nature of the data and investigate the mathematical foundations of parametrically inferring demographic rates from snapshots of particles undergoing birth, diffusion, and death in a nuclear or cellular domain. Toward inference, we rigorously derive a connection between individual particle paths and their presentation as a Poisson spatial process. Using this framework, we investigate the properties of the resulting inverse problem and study factors that affect quality of inference. One pervasive feature of this experimental regime is the presence of cell-to-cell heterogeneity. Rather than being a hindrance, we show that cell-to-cell geometric heterogeneity can increase the quality of inference on dynamics for certain parameter regimes. Altogether, the results serve as a basis for more detailed investigations of subcellular spatial patterns of RNA molecules and other stochastically evolving populations that can only be observed for single instants in their time evolution.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Shortened Duration of Global Warming Slowdowns with Elevated Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Continuous emissions of anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs) and aerosols in the last 160 years have resulted in an increasing trend of global mean surface temperatures (GMSTs). Due to interactions with natural variability, rates of the combined anthropogenically and naturally induced warming trends are characterized by significant slowdowns and speedups on decadal timescales. In this work, by analyzing observed and model-simulated data, we investigate how the duration of these episodes will change with different strengths of GHG and aerosol forcing. We found that the duration of warming slowdowns can be more than 30 yr with a slower rate of anthropogenic emissions but would shorten to about 5 yr with a higher one. This duration reduction depends on both the magnitude of the climate response to anthropogenic forcing and the strength of the internal variability. Moreover, the warming slowdowns can still occur even towards the end of this century under high emissions scenarios but with significantly shortened duration.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Localized keyhole pore prediction during laser powder bed fusion via multimodal process monitoring and X-ray radiography

Systematic fault detection and control during laser powder bed fusion (L-PBF) has been a long-standing objective for system manufacturers and researchers in the additive manufacturing (AM) industry. This manuscript investigates a data fusion approach for detection of keyhole porosity formation during laser irradiation of Ti-6Al-4V substrates by concurrent recording of thermally induced optical emission measured using both off-axis and coaxial photodiode sensors, and acoustic emission. Subsurface defect formation was monitored via high-speed synchrotron X-ray imaging at 20,000 frames per second, enabling temporal registration of keyhole pore formation events to the monitoring signals at a resolution of 50 µs. We developed data fusion machine learning (ML) models for localized prediction of keyhole pore formation at various time scales ranging from 0.5 ms to 2 ms. The signal segments were featurized using two independent approaches: (1) power spectral density (PSD) and (2) highly comparative time series analysis (HCTSA) framework. The extracted features from different sensor modalities were fused together to construct a multimodal feature space and sequential feature selection was used to determine the most informative features for training the ML models. The predictive performance was evaluated for three classifying algorithms: Support Vector Machine (SVM), K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN), and Gaussian Naive Bayes (GNB). As a result, pore formation events were predicted with up to 0.95 F1-score, 1.0 recall and 0.94 accuracy. The most heavily weighted features indicate that model performance is chiefly governed by the acoustic monitoring signal, with a secondary contribution from the optical emission sensors.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

PS3: The Pheno-Synthesis software suite for integration and analysis of multi-scale, multi-platform phenological data

Phenology is the study of recurring plant and animal life-cycle stages which can be observed across spatial and temporal scales that span orders of magnitude (e.g., organisms to landscapes). The variety of scales at which phenological processes operate is reflected in the range of methods for collecting phenologically relevant data, and the programs focused on these collections. Consideration of the scale at which phenological observations are made, and the platform used for observation, is critical for the interpretation of phenological data and the application of these data to both research questions and land management objectives. However, there is currently little capacity to facilitate access, integration and analysis of cross-scale, multi-platform phenological data. This paper reports on a new suite of software and analysis tools – the “Pheno-Synthesis Software Suite,” or PS3 – to facilitate integration and analysis of phenological and ancillary data, enabling investigation and interpretation of phenological processes at scales ranging from organisms to landscapes and from days to decades. We use PS3 to investigate phenological processes in a semi-aride, mixed shrub-grass ecosystem, and find that the apparent importance of seasonal precipitation to vegetation activity (i.e., “greenness”) is affected by the scale and platform of observation. We end by describing potential applications of PS3 to phenological modeling and forecasting, understanding patterns and drivers of phenological activity in real-world ecosystems, and supporting agricultural and natural resource management and decision-making.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Pressure falloff testing to characterize CO 2 plume and dry-out zone during CO 2 injection in saline aquifers

The fluid mobilities and the lateral extent of the CO 2 plume and the dry-out zone are among important unknowns required to effectively manage CO 2 storage in saline aquifers projects. These unknowns can be derived from pressure falloff testing which has been widely used to characterize the subsurface. This paper provides a three-region analytical solution for falloff pressure during the infinite-acting period of CO 2 injection in saline aquifers. The solution is derived using Laplace transformation technique of the governing diffusivity equations and the accompanying initial and boundary conditions. The exact solution is validated against numerical results obtained from a black-oil reservoir simulator for two cases. The solution is approximated into simple forms in real-time domain considering different time periods. Then, a graphical semi-log analysis technique based on the approximate solutions is provided as an interpretation tool of falloff tests where the fluid mobilities and the extents of dry-out zone and CO 2 plume can be inferred. The interpretation technique is applied to synthetic falloff test data to investigate its potential and reliability.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Assessing high fidelity multi-component models to facilitate safeguards at Gas Centrifuge Enrichment Plants

We report that the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors routinely carry out environmental sampling (ES) as a verification method. Collection of environmental swipe samples at various locations in Gas Centrifuge Enrichment Facilities (GCEPs) is an important process in detecting misuse of a declared facility and possibly the existence of undeclared nuclear material. These samples are measured for isotopic composition in uranium containing particles by Thermal Ionization Mass Spectrometry (TIMS) or Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometry (ICP-MS). Even though ES is highly effective in detecting the absolute value of enrichments and their deviations from the declared values, it cannot explain the cause of those changes. Several potential explanations can serve as possibilities for particles detected above or other than the declared enrichment. These include normal and non-malicious events such as the design of the enrichment cascades, unintentional failures of the machines, or overshoot during startup of a cascade. It can also be the result of deliberate misuse by the facility operators. The primary objective of this work is to understand how these factors affect the enrichments produced by a cascade and quantify anticipated multi-isotopic concentrations for each case. The following methodology is employed to determine signatures at a particular facility. 1) Utilize a new two-dimensional multi-component diffusion code to obtain centrifuge performance data and use that information to design and perform cascade analysis. Compare and contrast the results with previous 1-D radially averaged solutions from the Pancake code. 2) Design a GCEP cascade with the production goal of 19.75% 235 U for each set of machine data above. Investigate two cascade scenarios that include enrichment of natural uranium (NU) feed to 19.75% 235U in a single cascade compared to a two-step process of NU to 5% and then 5% to 19.75%. 3) Simulate the intentional vs. unintentional off-normal scenarios in the cascades to assess the differences in isotopic concentrations. A non-ideal squared-off cascade model developed at the University of Virginia is used to calculate flow rates and isotopic concentrations of the process gas. The analysis is performed using the Rome machine model operated at 600 m/s rotor speed. The upper and lower bounds of normal and abnormal enrichments in a typical facility are used in conjunction with ES results to understand the root causes of such observations.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

First measurement of differential cross sections for muon neutrino charged current interactions on argon with a two-proton final state using the MicroBooNE detector

We present the first measurement of differential cross sections for charged-current muon neutrino interactions on argon with one muon, two protons, and no pions in the final state. These final states are dominated by two-nucleon knockout interactions, which are complicated to model and for which there is currently limited information about the characteristics of these interactions in existing neutrino-nucleus scattering data. Detailed investigations of two-nucleon knockout are vital to support upcoming experiments exploring the nature of the neutrino. Among the different kinematic quantities measured, the opening angle between the two protons, the angle between the total proton momentum and the muon, and the total transverse momentum of the final state system are most sensitive to the underlying physics processes as embodied in various theoretical models.

2-particle 2-hole states↗

Trajectory prediction dimensionality reduction for low-cost connected automated vehicle systems

Here, to facilitate low-cost connected automated vehicle (CAV) system development, this study proposes two interpretable dimensionality reduction techniques in vehicle trajectory prediction, i.e., the piecewise Taylor series approximation (PTA) and the piecewise Fourier series approximation (PFA), to lower computation complexity, reduce device investment, and decrease computation energy consumption. Two benchmarks are developed, the long short-term memory (LSTM)-based model without dimensionality reduction and the LSTM-based model with encoder-decoder (a widely used dimensionality reduction technique). Results show that the four predictions have similar accuracy, and the training time (proportional to computation energy consumption) of models with dimensionality reduction techniques is greatly reduced. The reduction is even more significant when PTA/PFA is used. Sensitivity analysis advises PFA/PTA parameter selections to reduce computation complexity without significant loss of prediction accuracy. Further, the robustness of the LSTM PTA/PFA is proven by the investigation of data noises.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Anisotropic Motions of Fibrils Dictated by Their Orientations in the Lamella: A Coarse-Grained Model of a Plant Cell Wall

Plant cell walls are complex systems that exhibit the characteristics of both rigid and soft material depending on their external perturbations. The three main polymeric components in a plant primary cell wall are cellulose fibrils, hemicellulose, and pectins. These components interact in a hierarchical fashion giving rise to mesoscale structural features such as cellulose bundles, lamella stacking, and so on. Although several studies have focused on understanding these unique structural features, a clear picture linking them to cell wall mechanics is still lacking. As a first step toward this goal, a phenomenological model of plant cell wall has been developed in this work by using available experimental data to investigate the underlying connections between mesoscale structural features and the motions of fibrils during deformation. In this model cellulose fibrils exhibit motions such as angular reorientations and kinking upon forced stretching. Furthermore, these motions are dependent on the orientation of fibrils with respect to the stretch direction, i.e., fibrils that are at an angle to the stretch direction exhibit predominant angular reorientations, while fibrils transverse to the stretch direction undergo kinking as a result of transverse compression. Varying the chain length of pectin had negligible effects on these motions. One of the main contributions from this work is the development of a simple model that can be easily fine-tuned to test other hypotheses and extended to include additional experimental knowledge about the structural aspects of cell walls in the future.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Characteristics of Electron Precipitation During 40 Energetic Electron Injections Inferred via Subionospheric VLF Signal Propagation

Energetic electron injection events are associated with energetic electron precipitation (EEP) through possible resonant wave-particle interactions. Previous studies confirm the impacts of injection-driven precipitation on observed amplitude/phase of subionospheric VLF (very low frequency) signals transmitted from distant artificial transmitters. Currently, there are substantial uncertainties on precipitation characteristics and flux during injection events. In this work we study 40 injection events selected by Van Allen Probes particle data to investigate the changes in amplitude and phase of VLF signals at ground receivers across Canada during particle injection events. We model the ionospheric effect of the EEP flux to find its impact on VLF propagation and characterize the injection events. Typically, we find a clear phase advance of ~40° in the received VLF signal at Fort Smith (Canada, L = 8) transmitted from U.S. Navy communication transmitter NAA at Maine (USA). Comparing to other VLF transmitter-receiver paths in North America leads us to conclude that effects are only seen on paths with adequately large range >>200 km) through L > 7. Modeling the VLF phase change indicates that in the majority of events (>90%), less than 10% of the strong scattering limit inferred from particle flux measurements at the Van Allen Probes is required to obtain the observed VLF phase signature. The median precipitating flux during energetic particle injections is less than 4 × 10 6 el/cm 2 s sr (<10% of the strong scattering rate) for electrons above ~40 keV extracted from trapped particles energy spectrum. This implies that strong scattering is not typical for these 40 selected energetic electron injection events.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Seasonal and Long‐Term Groundwater Unloading in the Central Valley Modifies Crustal Stress

Abstract Changes in terrestrial water content cause elastic deformation of the Earth's crust. This deformation is thought to play a role in modulating crustal stress and seismicity in regions where large water storage fluctuations occur. Groundwater is an important component of total water storage change in California, helping to drive annual water storage fluctuations and loss during periods of drought. Here we use direct estimates of groundwater volume loss during the 2007–2010 drought in California's Central Valley obtained from high resolution Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar‐based vertical land motion data to investigate the effect of groundwater volume change on the evolution of the stress field. We show that GPS‐derived elastic load models may not capture the contribution of groundwater to terrestrial water loading, resulting in an underestimation of nontectonic crustal stress change. We find that groundwater unloading during the drought causes Coulomb stress change of up to 5.5 kPa and seasonal fluctuations of up to 2.6 kPa at seismogenic depth. We find that faults near the Valley show the largest stress change and the San Andreas fault experiences only ~40 Pa of Coulomb stress change over the course of a year from groundwater storage change. Annual Coulomb stress change peaks dominantly in the fall, when the groundwater level is low; however, some faults experience peak stress in the spring when groundwater levels are higher. Additionally, we find that periods of increased stress correlate with higher than average seismic moment release but are not correlated with an increase in the number of earthquakes. This indicates groundwater loading likely contributes to nontectonic loading of faults, especially near the Valley edge, but is not a dominant factor in modulation of seismicity in California because the amplitude of stress change declines rapidly with distance from the Valley. By carefully quantifying and spatially locating groundwater fluctuations, we will improve our understanding of what drives nontectonic stress and forces that modulate seismicity in California.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Examination of Global Midlatitude Atmospheric River Lifecycles Using an Object-Oriented Methodology

Tracking atmospheric rivers (ARs) across their lifecycles is a field of recent interest with a multitude of emerging methodologies. The CONNected-objECT (CONNECT) algorithm is adapted for the tracking of global midlatitude AR lifecycles and associated precipitation by implementing a seeded region growing segmentation algorithm, creating the AR-CONNECT algorithm. To facilitate the permissiveness of the methodology, AR-CONNECT is without hard-coded geometric criteria yet is still shown to extract synoptic-scale elongated objects >99.99% of the time. One of the consequences of the methodology is the ability to occasionally track atmospheric water vapor anomalies before evolving into AR geometries, effectively tracking AR genesis further back than other studies. With the aid of subdaily satellite-derived rain data, we investigate the climatology, trends, and patterns of AR lifecycles from 1983–2016 and compare with other AR tracking studies. We find that AR frequency, genesis, and terminus locations are in generally good agreement with other AR tracking methodologies, though with key differences, and that AR frequencies in each hemisphere are determined by the number of AR hotspots. Furthermore, we uncover evidence that certain AR characteristics, such as frequency, areal extent, and duration, show evidence of increasing trends. Midlatitude precipitation uncovered by AR-CONNECT shows contributions up to 50% over land and 65% over the ocean. Trend analysis of AR precipitation shows an increase in precipitation associated with ARs propagated by the Southern Jet Stream and ARs that traverse over the Sahara Desert, among others, but is determined not to be a driver of changes in global precipitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Reduced‐Order Modeling for Linearized Representations of Microphysical Process Rates

Abstract Representing cloud microphysical processes in large scale atmospheric models is challenging because many processes depend on the details of the droplet size distribution (DSD, the spectrum of droplets with different sizes in a cloud). While full or partial statistical moments of droplet size distributions are the typical variables used in bulk models, prognostic moments are limited in their ability to represent microphysical processes across the range of conditions experienced in the atmosphere. Microphysical parameterizations employing prognostic moments are known to suffer from structural uncertainty in their representations of inherently higher dimensional cloud processes, which limit model fidelity and lead to forecasting errors. Here we investigate how data‐driven reduced‐order modeling can be used to learn predictors for microphysical process rates in bulk microphysics schemes in an unsupervised manner from higher dimensional bin distributions. Using simulations characteristic of marine stratiform clouds, we simultaneously learn lower dimensional representations of droplet size distributions and predict the evolution of the microphysical state of the system. Droplet collision‐coalescence, the main process for generating warm rain, is estimated to have an intrinsic dimension of three. This intrinsic dimension provides a lower limit on the number of degrees of freedom needed to accurately represent collision‐coalescence in models. We demonstrate how deep learning based reduced‐order modeling can be used to discover intrinsic coordinates describing the microphysical state of the system, where process rates such as collision‐coalescence are globally linearized. These implicitly learned representations of the DSD retain more information about the DSD than typical moment‐based representations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Statistical Study of Energy Dissipation in Magnetic Structures During Turbulent Reconnection in the Earth's Magnetotail

Magnetic reconnection is a ubiquitous plasma phenomenon that plays a critical role in particle heating and energization. During reconnection, the topology of magnetic field rearranges, depositing energy into the surrounding plasma through bulk flow, thermal heating, or non-thermal particle acceleration. While the pathways of this transformation from magnetic energy into kinetic have been studied extensively in recent years through theoretical or case-by-case observations, comprehensive statistical studies remain limited. In this paper, we present a statistical investigation using data from the Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS) mission, and detail the particle energization mechanisms in magnetic structures found near reconnecting regions in turbulent Earth's magnetotail. We find that electrons with motion perpendicular to the magnetic field dominate $\vec{j}$ ⋅ $\vec{E}$ dissipation. In contrast to the conventional picture of unidirectional energy transfer to particles by laminar two-dimensional (2D) reconnection, we find that energy exchange within magnetic structures during turbulent reconnection tends to be bidirectional with only a small positive bias from electromagnetic fields to particles. Specific electron energization mechanisms are quantified, including those due to parallel electric field, Fermi energization from curvature drift, betatron heating from magnetic field inhomogeneity, and polarization drift.

Wang, Rachel [Princeton University, NJ (United Sta↗

Fingerprint of rice paddies in spatial–temporal dynamics of atmospheric methane concentration in monsoon Asia

Agriculture (e.g., rice paddies) has been considered one of the main emission sources responsible for the sudden rise of atmospheric methane concentration (XCH 4 ) since 2007, but remains debated. Here we use satellite-based rice paddy and XCH 4 data to investigate the spatial-temporal relationships between rice paddy area, rice plant growth, and XCH 4 in monsoon Asia, which accounts for ~87% of the global rice area. We find strong spatial consistencies between rice paddy area and XCH 4 and seasonal consistencies between rice plant growth and XCH 4 . Our results also show a decreasing trend in rice paddy area in monsoon Asia since 2007, which suggests that the change in rice paddy area could not be one of the major drivers for the renewed XCH 4 growth, thus other sources and sinks should be further investigated. Our findings highlight the importance of satellite-based paddy rice datasets in understanding the spatial-temporal dynamics of XCH 4 in monsoon Asia.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Phenological shifts in lake stratification under climate change

One of the most important physical characteristics driving lifecycle events in lakes is stratification. Already subtle variations in the timing of stratification onset and break-up (phenology) are known to have major ecological effects, mainly by determining the availability of light, nutrients, carbon and oxygen to organisms. Despite its ecological importance, historic and future global changes in stratification phenology are unknown. Here, we used a lake-climate model ensemble and long-term observational data, to investigate changes in lake stratification phenology across the Northern Hemisphere from 1901 to 2099. Under the high-greenhouse-gas-emission scenario, stratification will begin 22.0 ± 7.0 days earlier and end 11.3 ± 4.7 days later by the end of this century. It is very likely that this 33.3 ± 11.7 day prolongation in stratification will accelerate lake deoxygenation with subsequent effects on nutrient mineralization and phosphorus release from lake sediments. Further misalignment of lifecycle events, with possible irreversible changes for lake ecosystems, is also likely.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The 2021 update of the EPA’s adverse outcome pathway database

The EPA developed the Adverse Outcome Pathway Database (AOP-DB) to better characterize adverse outcomes of toxicological interest that are relevant to human health and the environment. Here we present the most recent version of the EPA Adverse Outcome Pathway Database (AOP-DB), version 2. AOP-DB v.2 introduces several substantial updates, which include automated data pulls from the AOP-Wiki 2.0, the integration of tissue-gene network data, and human AOP-gene data by population, semantic mapping and SPARQL endpoint creation, in addition to the presentation of the first publicly available AOP-DB web user interface. Potential users of the data may investigate specific molecular targets of an AOP, the relation of those gene/protein targets to other AOPs, cross-species, pathway, or disease-AOP relationships, or frequencies of AOP-related functional variants in particular populations, for example. Version updates described herein help inform new testable hypotheses about the etiology and mechanisms underlying adverse outcomes of environmental and toxicological concern.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗