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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 127 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Predictive Models and Novel Accelerated Tests for the Reliability of Cell Metallization in Photovoltaic Modules (Final Report)

Studies of metallization corrosion m photovoltaics have mainly been limited to comparisons of modules placed in accelerated chambers to fielded modules [1]. Damp Heat accelerated tests and phenomenological equations [2] are used to assess metallization corrosion without understanding the effect of UV light and temperature and humidity cycles on encapsulant adhesion degradation. The roles of encapsulant in-and out-diffusions of moisture and encapsulant impurities are important. Furthermore, few photovoltaic metallization corrosion studies included the role of bias and leakage currents, which are crucial in the electrochemical reaction of metallization. Leakage currents can highly accelerate the corrosion mechanism and are important to include in the studies of corrosion. In our research plan, we will address the following gaps in the PV community's understanding of metallization corrosion: (1) metallization corrosion with bias, humidity, and impurities in the encapsulant or metallization; (2) humidity diffusion through fresh and degraded encapsulants; and (3) comparison of model predictions with outdoor field modules and SunPower's extensive data for its back-contact and front-contact fleets [2] along with NREL's store of >20 year old modules. Our goal is to build models and accelerated tests to predict long term degradation of metallization corrosion of photovoltaic modules in the field. Our studies will include metals used in c-Si solar cells (Cu, Ag, and Al) and commonly used encapsulants (EV A (ethylene vinyl acetate), TPO (thermoplastic olefin), and silicone).

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Power system model parameter conditioning tool

A power system model parameter conditioning tool including a server control processor in communication with phasor measurement unit monitored data records of multiple disturbance events, a model calibration unit providing event screening, power system model simulation, and simultaneous tuning of model parameters. The model calibration performing a simulation using default model parameters, the processor comparing the simulation results to the monitored data. If the prediction is within threshold, then terminating conditioning; else performing parameter identifiability analysis to determine differing effects of various model parameters on power system model accuracy, selecting a parameter set causing a degradation in power system model prediction, and updating the default model parameters corresponding to members of the parameter set with values selected to reduce the degradation. A method and a non-transitory computer readable medium are also disclosed.

Baone, Chaitanya Ashok↗
DOE OSTI2022

High energy X-ray diffraction and small-angle scattering measurements of hydrogen fatigue damage in AISI 4130 steel

Accurate lifetime predictions are critical for repurposing existing pipelines for hydrogen transmission as well as for developing novel steels which are minimally susceptible to lifetime degradation by hydrogen. Ultimately, lifetime prediction models assess the amount of damage a material undergoes during a typical service cycle and the cumulative damage a material can withstand prior to failure. However, not all damage processes are equal, and neither is the manner in which mechanical loading translates to damage the same when materials are in inert environments compared to in hydrogen environments. For example, in the three leading proposed mechanisms of hydrogen embrittlement (Hydrogen-Enhanced Decohesion (HEDE), the Hydrogen-Enhanced Localized Plasticity (HELP), and the Nano-Void Coalescence (NVC)), hydrogen is proposed to enhance the manifestation of grain separation, dislocation generation/movement, and void coalescence, respectively. A full understanding of the damage modes requires a measurement capable of probing all three mechanisms at once. Here we present simultaneous High Energy X-ray Diffraction (HEXRD) and Small-Angle X-ray Scattering (SAXS) during fatiguing of steel in hydrogen. HEXRD measurements probe strain and dislocation density; SAXS measurements probe nano-pore generation and coalescence. We will discuss the differences in damage modes between steels fatigued in air and in hydrogen and the role these difference play in lifetime predictions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Changes in precipitation and air temperature contribute comparably to permafrost degradation in a warmer climate

Abstract Surface energy budgets of high-latitude permafrost systems are poorly represented in Earth system models (ESMs), yet permafrost is rapidly degrading and these dynamics are critical to future carbon-climate feedback predictions. A potentially important factor in permafrost degradation neglected so far by ESMs is heat transfer from precipitation, although increases in soil temperature and thaw depth have been observed following increases in precipitation. Using observations and a mechanistic ecosystem model, we show here that increases in precipitation hasten active layer development beyond that caused by surface air warming across the North Slope of Alaska (NSA) under recent and 21st century climate (RCP8.5). Modeled active layer depth (ALD) in simulations that allow precipitation heat transfer agreed very well with observations from 28 Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring sites (R 2 = 0.63; RMSE = 10 cm). Simulations that ignored precipitation heat transfer resulted in lower spatially-averaged soil temperatures and a 39 cm shallower ALD by 2100 across the NSA. The results from our sensitivity analysis show that projected increases in 21st century precipitation deepen the active layer by enhancing precipitation heat transfer and ground thermal conductivity, suggesting that precipitation is as important an environmental control on permafrost degradation as surface air temperature. We conclude that ESMs that do not account for precipitation heat transfer likely underestimate ALD rates of change, and thus likely predict biased ecosystem responses.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Quantifying Properties for a Mechanistic, Predictive Understanding of Aqueous Impact on Aging of Medium and Low Voltage AC and DC Cabling in Nuclear Power Plants

To address the gap in knowledge in understanding degradation in relevant service conditions, this project aimed to develop a mechanistic, predictive model of medium and low voltage cable failure based on the primary environmental degradation parameters of aqueous immersion time, temperature, and the oxidation extent. To do so, we took a two-fold approach toward evaluating degradation as related to the aqueous condition. First, we evaluated the chemical, mechanical, and electrical properties of polymers that comprise the cabling insulation under varied aqueous conditions at different temperatures. Secondly, we evaluated the performance of insulation materials under similar accelerated aging conditions in addition to the dielectric breakdown of the cabling under submersion conditions. Thermal oxidation and immersion of LDPE thin films were done using a Parr vessel and the extent of oxidation was monitored using the carbonyl index from ATR-FTIR spectrum, a ratio quantifying the carbonyl functionality produced on the LDPE film surface. Increasing the temperature, oxidation time, and oxygen pressure increased the water-vapor permeability and the carbonyl content. Thermogravimetric analysis of the films confirmed that there is indeed an initial weight loss of the smaller molecular weight molecules and volatiles. At higher temperatures, there is a secondary mass loss. Up to 70°C, the mass loss curves were similar until 80°C, when the aged films decreased at a much greater rate with respect to increasing temperature. This was seen in the 10, 50, 90% weight loss temperatures. The mechanical properties of sheet PP and HDPE as well as injection molded LDPE, HDPE, HDPP dog bones were plotted with respect to the time spent in the Parr vessel during thermal oxidation. For the sheet PP and HDPE, the UTS and the modulus of elasticity decreased while the elongation increased. The injection-molded LDPE, HDPE, and HDPP dog bones experienced a similar trend where the changes in the properties were within experimental uncertainty. This analysis of LDPE in dry and immersive oxygen-rich environments is an important baseline for future experiments looking at other degradation mechanisms. A predictive aging model for low-density polyethylene insulative cable housings was developed. This model revealed a combination of physical and chemical processes which lead to an increase in permeability and a decrease in strength of the insulator. In creating this predictive model, a gap of knowledge in the literature was revealed in two areas: understanding how the crystallinity of a polymer changes with time and visualizing the predicted pores formed through the insulator which leads to failure. Developing and using an adapted ATR-FTIR method, crystallinity was monitored and compared to bulk crystallinity found via DSC. Inhomogeneity in crystallinity changes were observed but the FTIR method but was found to be less reliable. Pore visualization was found utilizing electrical impedance spectroscopy saturated aged polyethylene films with synthesized citrate-capped gold nanoparticles, and chloroauric acid precursor. results indicate a decreasing impedance of the polyethylene films caused by the transport of ions through the film. SEM imaging was then performed for elemental analysis of the films and counter electrodes for the presence of ions. Chloride and gold ions were detected; however, no nanoparticles were found. This gives an estimated pore size of at least 0.3 nm through the aged film. Cyclic submergence of polyethylene and polypropylene in aqueous solutions of copper sulfate and Harrison’s solution were examined. It was discovered that aging in these mixed conditions and at 90°C did cause a small, yet significant increase to tensile strength for both unaged polyethylene and polypropylene. The PE and PP in cycled and submerged conditions did not have tensile strengths significantly different from dry-aged after 16 weeks. For both solutions, it was determined that capacitance increases with both water tree depth and cable temperature and is relatively independent of changing water tree AR. As for resistance, there is no apparent change between depth percentages of 10 and 80 for both solutions. This is because the water tree has not yet entered the conductor and thus there is no shorting current flowing through the tree yet. Between 80 and 100% water tree depth, it is observed that for both solutions there is a rapid decrease in resistance because the tree is now impacting the conductor shield and allowing shorting current to flow through it. The relationship between resistance and temperature was found to be inversed. As temperature increases, resistance decreases for both water tree solutions with distilled water having the most apparent difference across the range of temperatures simulated. With regards to water tree AR, resistance was found to be relatively independent at depth percentages of 10, 50, and 70, but there was some relationship at 100% depth for both solutions. At this depth, as water tree AR increased, resistance was found to also increase. Through the examination of voltage and electric field distribution plots, it was confirmed for EPR cables that increasing water tree depth leads to increasing distortion. The increase in shorting current at 100% depth for aqueous copper sulfate compared to distilled water was also visualized. Lastly, the relationship between shorting current and temperature for narrow water trees was visualized and validated using the distribution plots. This study has led to a better understanding of the effect of cable temperature, water tree solution, and geometry of the tree region on cable degradation. Furthermore, this study has documented simulation results of water tree degradation in EPR MV cables, which had been previously lacking in information. Future work in this area will add frequency into the mix and examine what effect it has on the rate of cable degradation as a result of water treeing. To compliment the work being carried by UMD on different polymer chemistries, harvested medium voltage (MV) cables were selected for accelerated aging study at ORNL. These medium voltage cables are representative of the vintages and materials that are currently in use at existing nuclear power plants (NPPs). These cables were immersed in water at 90°C and energized for a period of two years at elevated voltage. Partial discharge was measured during this period of time to track potential degradation. Unfortunately, due to the absence of failure, the extent of integration between the UMD techniques and the harvested MV insulation was limited. However, based on the findings and from the UMD research in the previous sections on polyethylene and polypropylene, follow-on characterization for harvested MV cable insulation should focus on sample preparation to take advantage of the UMD techniques to better understand mechanistic degradation in MV cable insulations. This would include: 1.) Utilization of solutions and impedance measurement insulation to track permeability in harvested and accelerated aging insulation samples, 2.) Adaptation of gold nanoparticle synthesis for electrical impedance spectroscopy with supporting SEM characterization to study pore formation in harvested and accelerated aged insulation samples, & 3.) ATR-FTIR crystallinity with multiple temperature dependent harvested MV cable insulation under different air and submerged accelerated aging. In addition, low voltage dielectric spectroscopy and high voltage dissipation factor, tan δ, could be implemented as a condition monitoring tool for harvested MV cable insulation in submerged environments.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Development and Evaluation of Occupancy-Aware HVAC Control for Residential Building Energy Efficiency and Occupant Comfort

Occupancy-aware heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) control offers the opportunity to reduce energy use without sacrificing thermal comfort. Residential HVAC systems often use manually-adjusted or constant setpoint temperatures, which heat and cool the house regardless of whether it is needed. By incorporating occupancy-awareness into HVAC control, heating and cooling can be used for only those time periods it is needed. Yet, bringing this technology to fruition is dependent on accurately predicting occupancy. Non-probabilistic prediction models offer an opportunity to use collected occupancy data to predict future occupancy profiles. Smart devices, such as a connected thermostat, which already include occupancy sensors, can be used to provide a continually growing collection of data that can then be harnessed for short-term occupancy prediction by compiling and creating a binary occupancy prediction. Real occupancy data from six homes located in Colorado is analyzed and investigated using this occupancy prediction model. Results show that non-probabilistic occupancy models in combination with occupancy sensors can be combined to provide a hybrid HVAC control with savings on average of 5.0% and without degradation of thermal comfort. Model predictive control provides further opportunities, with the ability to adjust the relative importance between thermal comfort and energy savings to achieve savings between 1% and 13.3% depending on the relative weighting between thermal comfort and energy savings. In all cases, occupancy prediction allows the opportunity for a more intelligent and optimized strategy to residential HVAC control.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2022

Module-Level Thermal Interface Material Degradation in HALT

Abstract In this study, thermal interface material (TIM) degradation is driven through highly accelerated life test (HALT) using temperature cycling with a prescribed vibrational acceleration for two commercially available materials having thermal conductivities of 6.0 and 8.5 W/m K. HALT specimens were prepared by applying TIM through a 4-mil stencil over AlSiC baseplates in the shape of those used in Wolfspeed CAS325M12HM2 power electronics modules. Baseplates were mounted onto aluminum carrier blocks with embedded thermocouples to characterize the thermal resistance across the baseplate and TIM layer. Thermal dissipation into the top of the baseplates was provided by a custom heating block, which mimics the size and placement of the die junctions in CAS325 modules, applying power loads of 200, 300, and 400 W. After initial characterization, samples were transferred to the HALT chamber with one set of samples exposed to temperature cycling only (TCO) and the other temperature cycling and vibration (TCV). Both sample sets were cycled between temperature extremes of −40 °C and 180 °C with vibrations applied at a peak acceleration of 3.21 Grms. After hundreds of cycles, samples were reevaluated to assess changes in thermal resistance to provide an accelerated measure of TIM degradation. This allows for reliability prediction of useful lifetime (illustrated in a solar inverter case study herein), as well as to provide a basis for developing an accelerated testing method to related temperature cycling to faster methods of degradation. Such techniques provide a means to develop maintenance schedules for power modules for ensuring sufficient thermal performance over the operating lifetime.

Engineering↗
DOE OSTI2023

Computational Materials Design for Ceramic Nuclear Waste Forms Using Machine Learning, First-Principles Calculations, and Kinetics Rate Theory

Ceramic waste forms are designed to immobilize radionuclides for permanent disposal in geological repositories. One of the principal criteria for the effective incorporation of waste elements is their compatibility with the host material. In terms of performance under environmental conditions, the resistance of the waste forms to degradation over long periods of time is a critical concern when they are exposed to natural environments. Due to their unique crystallographic features and behavior in nature environment as exemplified by their natural analogues, ceramic waste forms are capable of incorporating problematic nuclear waste elements while showing promising chemical durability in aqueous environments. Recent studies of apatite- and hollandite-structured waste forms demonstrated an approach that can predict the compositions of ceramic waste forms and their long-term dissolution rate by a combination of computational techniques including machine learning, first-principles thermodynamics calculations, and modeling using kinetic rate equations based on critical laboratory experiments. By integrating the predictions of elemental incorporation and degradation kinetics in a holistic framework, the approach could be promising for the design of advanced ceramic waste forms with optimized incorporation capacity and environmental degradation performance. Such an approach could provide a path for accelerated ceramic waste form development and performance prediction for problematic nuclear waste elements.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2020

Detecting Thermally Induced Spinodal Decomposition with Picosecond Ultrasonics in Cast Austenitic Stainless Steels

Given the existential climate crisis faced by mankind and the world, the lifetime and sustainability of nuclear reactors as a carbon-free source of renewable energy depend on the susceptibility of their structural components to environmental degradation. In particular, critical components for light water reactors (LWRs) evolve over decades in service, losing ductility and toughness due to thermal and irradiation aging. Techniques to monitor their health cannot be easily applied in the field due to their destructive, expensive, or immobile nature. Thus, non-destructive evaluation (NDE) methods are sought to monitor and evaluate the health of major LWR components such as core barrels, steam generator tubes, or primary coolant pipes and are often required by policy, such as NRC policy #10-CFR-50.65. In this work we demonstrate the use of gigahertz, non-contact ultrasonics to gauge the state of cast austenitic stainless steels (CASS), used in some of the largest components in LWR primary systems. We do so by linking changes in their surface acoustic wave (SAW) characteristics using transient grating spectroscopy (TGS) to transmission electron microscopy (TEM)-verified evidence of spinodal decomposition and G-phase precipitation. In this thesis, thermal aging is shown to induce SAW peak splitting in spinodally decomposed CASS alloys, correlated strongly with lowered toughness and decreased ductility. Furthermore, statistical testing on the number of SAW peak splits observed show that the second SAW peak significantly appears more frequently and is significantly different in frequency in comparison to counts and frequencies measured in unaged specimens. The ability of this technique to non-destructively detect microstructural degradation at a distance in a predictive manner in the case of CASS motivates extending gigahertz ultrasonics to detect other LWR material degradation modes as an in-vessel inspection technique, such as reactor pressure vessel (RPV) embrittlement. This allows for the greater use of NDE techniques for confident monitoring of LWR structural material health to 80 years and beyond, saving costs by minimizing structural replacements until needed and maximizing energy production by preventing early decommission until necessary.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Drying of Spent Nuclear Fuel: Considerations and Examples

A recently revised American Society for Testing and Materials consensus standard guide for drying of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) provides considerations and guidance for preparing SNF for its safe storage in a sealed dry storage system. The standard discusses (1) needs for drying, (2) techniques to dry, and (3) demonstration of adequate dryness. No specific approach is prescribed since the effective techniques and needs for drying depend on the specifics of the fuel and dry storage system. Here, this paper discusses these topics using examples for both Zr-alloy-clad commercial SNF and for aluminum-alloy-clad research reactor SNF. Residual water can include free water (liquid and/or vapor), physisorbed water bound to internal surfaces, and chemisorbed water incorporated into surface films, such as (oxy)hydroxides. The potential impacts of these residual waters are corrosion/oxidation, radiolytic breakdown into gaseous and/or reactive species, and canister pressurization. For commercial SNF, inadvertent free water, even up to large amounts (e.g., 10+ mol), is not predicted to cause adverse corrosion degradation, except possible fuel oxidation for breached SNF. For aluminum-clad SNF, the production of radiolytic hydrogen with contribution from the chemisorbed water in its hydrated oxides is a primary consideration. For both SNF systems, canister pressurization is predicted to be well within the canister design, and flammability would not pose a safety concern using an oxygen limit of 5 vol % criterion. (Flammability control can be achieved by limiting either hydrogen or oxygen, and an oxygen limit is expected to be easier to meet in the presence of radiolytic H 2 generation.) The two primary technologies for SNF drying, vacuum drying and forced-gas dehydration, are described herein, and drying tests and campaigns using these methods are cited. Dryness criteria and the methods used to detect and measure residual (free) water are also discussed.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Dissipation Scaled Internal Wave Drag in a Global Heterogeneously Coupled Internal/External Mode Total Water Level Model

This study showcases a global, heterogeneously coupled total water level system wherein salinity and temperature outputs from a coarser-resolution (~12 km) ocean general circulation model are used to calculate density-driven terms within a global, higher-resolution (~2.5 km) depth-averaged total water level model. We demonstrate that the inclusion of baroclinic forcing in the barotropic model requires modification of the internal wave drag term to prevent excess degradation of tidal results compared to the barotropic model. By scaling the internal tide dissipation by an easy to calculate dissipation ratio, the resulting heterogeneously coupled model has complex root mean square errors (RMSE) of 2.27 cm in the deep ocean and 12.16 cm in shallow waters for the M 2 tidal constituent. While this represents a 10%–20% deterioration as compared to the barotropic model, the improvements in total water level prediction more than offset this degradation. Global median RMSE compared to observations of total water levels, 30-day sea levels, and non-tidal residuals improve by 1.86 (18.5%), 2.55 (42.5%), and 0.36 (5.3%) cm respectively. The drastic improvement in model performance highlights the importance of including density-driven effects within global hydrodynamic models and will help to improve the results of both hindcasts and forecasts in modeling extreme and nuisance flooding. With only an 11% increase in model run time compared to the fully barotropic total water level model, this approach paves the way for high resolution coastal water level and flood models to be used alongside climate models, improving operational forecasting of total water levels.

Blakely, Coleman Peter [University of Notre Dame, ↗
DOE OSTI2026

Diagnostics, Prognostics, and Optimization for Lithium-Ion Battery Systems

Health management of lithium-ion battery systems presents a host of challenges due to their complex physics, large numbers of components, and a wide variety of degradation behaviors across different battery types. Dr. Paul Gasper will present on research from the Electrochemical Energy Storage Group on Lithium-ion battery diagnostics, prognostics, and optimization. Diagnostics research, including state-estimation via machine-learning from electrochemical impedance spectroscopy and DC pulses as well as continuous state-estimation via Kalman filters, will highlight the ongoing challenges for accurately measuring the state of batteries without performing time-consuming characterization tests. NLR's industry-recognized battery prognostics work, which predicts real-world battery degradation by identifying degradation rate models from accelerated aging data using statistical modeling and machine-learning, will be used to demonstrate the critical impact of battery controls, thermal management, and operating strategy on durability and lifetime. Finally, the use of prognostic models for financial or lifetime optimization will be discussed.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Machine Learning Surrogates of a Fuel Matrix Degradation Process Model for Performance Assessment of a Nuclear Waste Repository

Spent nuclear fuel repository simulations are currently not able to incorporate detailed fuel matrix degradation (FMD) process models due to their computational cost, especially when large numbers of waste packages breach. The current paper uses machine learning to develop artificial neural network and k-nearest neighbor regression surrogate models that approximate the detailed FMD process model while being computationally much faster to evaluate. Further, using fuel cask temperature, dose rate, and the environmental concentrations of CO 3 2- , O 2 , Fe 2+ , and H 2 as inputs, these surrogates show good agreement with the FMD process model predictions of the UO 2 degradation rate for conditions within the range of the training data. A demonstration in a full-scale shale repository reference case simulation shows that the incorporation of the surrogate models captures local and temporal environmental effects on fuel degradation rates while retaining good computational efficiency.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2020

Using Meteorological Data to Evaluate Worldwide PV Degradation Rates

Here we automate the process to enable the creation of world maps for specific PV durability metrics. The end goal is to create a tool for the creation of world maps predicting the sensitivity of modules to degradation to inform the development and utilization of module testing standards and to provide information to module designers. TMY (Typical Meteorological Year) Data was aggregated from sites around the world to render insight into factors contributing to the degradation of solar modules. The focus of aggregating data was to create a single dataset to work with utilizing Solar Irradiance values combined with Ambient Temperature, Relative Humidity, Wind Speed and Dew-Point Temperature.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program Materials Research Pathway Technical Program Plan

The Materials Research (MR) Pathway within the Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program is charged with performing the research and development (R&D) to develop the scientific basis for understanding and predicting long-term environmental degradation behavior of materials in nuclear reactors. Furthermore, it is essential to use the mechanistic understanding of degradation phenomena in materials to develop mitigation, repair, and new material alternatives for existing components. The work will provide data and methods to assess performance of systems, structures, and components (SSCs) essential to safe and sustained reactor operations. The R&D products developed from the LWRS Program will be used by utilities, industry groups, and regulators to inform operational and regulatory requirements for materials in reactor SSCs subjected to long-term operation conditions, providing key input to both regulators and industry. The intent of this research is to help in reducing the operating costs, which may be in the form of offset maintenance costs due to better predictive models for component lifetimes, improved analysis of materials through nondestructive evaluation, reduced costs for repairs, or extended performance of plants through the selection of improved replacement materials. To best achieve this, industry experience and guidance are important as is their role in coordinated or collaborative research projects. The objectives of this report are to describe the motivation and organization of the MR Pathway within the LWRS Program, provide details on the individual research tasks within the MR Pathway, describe the outcomes and deliverables of the MR Pathway, including recent technical highlights and progress, and list the requirements for performing the research.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Spatiotemporal Modeling of Real World Backsheets Field Survey Data: Hierarchical (Multilevel) Generalized Additive Models: Preprint

Assessing photovoltaic module backsheet durability is critical to increasing module lifetime. Lab based accelerating testing has recently failed to predict large scale failures of widely adopted polymeric materials. Field surveyed data is critical to assess the performance of component lifetime. Using a documented field survey protocol, 13 field surveys where conducted. Each measurement is encoded with it's spatial location in respect to the other modules. By combining field survey data on degradation predictors with real time satellite weather data, data-driven predictive models of backsheet degradation were trained. LOESS models were constructed to investigate the spatial dependence of measurements. It was found that micro-climatic effects like treelines, ground surface changes, and elevation changes effected the magnitude and variance of the measurements. A GAM model was created to predict the value of degradation based on measured predictors. The model includes variables on the climate of the system and the location of each measurement in the PV mounting structure. The model performed well with an adj:R2 of 0:95 for yellowness index prediction. The model was cross-validated using k-folds.

backsheet↗
DOE OSTI2021

Spatio-Temporal Modeling of Field Surveyed Backsheet Degradation

Assessing photovoltaic module backsheet durability is critical to increasing module lifetime. Lab based accelerating testing has recently failed to predict large scale failures of widely adopted polymeric materials. Field surveyed data is critical to assess the performance of component lifetime. Using a documented field survey protocol, 13 field surveys where conducted. Each measurement is encoded with it's spatial location in respect to the other modules. By combining field survey data on degradation predictors with real time satellite weather data, data-driven predictive models of backsheet degradation were trained. LOESS models were constructed to investigate the spatial dependence of measurements. It was found that micro-climatic effects like tree-lines, ground surface changes, and elevation changes effected the magnitude and variance of the measurements. A GAM model was created to predict the value of degradation based on measured predictors. The model includes variables on the climate of the system and the location of each measurement in the PV mounting structure. The model performed well with an adj.R 2 of 0.95 for yellowness index prediction. The model was cross-validated using k-folds.

backsheet↗