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DOE OSTI2026

Pilot Development Progress to Demonstrate Electric Thermal Energy Storage (ETES) Using Low-Cost Particles

The rapid growth of future energy demand increases the need to economically store electrical energy over durations up to several days in long-duration energy storage (LDES) applications. LDES can reduce the grid stress for improving the resilience of the grid. The integration of renewable power and storage has several significant and positive impacts including expanding the renewable energy portion of electricity generation, meeting peak-load demand, and coordinating supply and demand. Several energy storage approaches including mechanical, chemical and electrochemical methods are currently deployed or under development. However, LDES requirements pose unique challenges for scalability, energy capacity, and cost. Thermal energy storage (TES) has the ability to store a large capacity of energy with improved site flexibility compared to incumbent LDES technologies (i.e., pumped hydro) and has attracted significant interest. Our development in TES technology using solid particles as the storage medium has shown feasibility and potential in serving LDES purposes. Particle TES has various advantages over commercialized molten nitrate salt TES and has emerged as a promising storage technology originating from Generation 3 concentrating solar power (CSP) development. Stable, inexpensive silica sand produced in the Midwestern U.S. was identified as a suitable storage medium and has been validated through lab heating and cycling tests. We have successfully developed particle TES for bidirectional electric energy storage to broaden the applications for TES beyond CSP technologies and into standalone electric-thermal energy storage (ETES) systems. Key component designs and performance were verified with prototype testing and model simulations. The ETES system uses high-temperature, low-cost particle thermal energy storage coupled with a unique pressurized fluidized bed heat exchanger that supports a high-efficiency, air-Brayton combined power cycle. At times of low energy demand or high renewable production, an electric particle heater heats large quantities of solid particles to high temperatures in excess of 1100 degrees C. The particles are stored in internally insulated silos. At times of high electricity demand, the hot particles are gravity-fed through the heat exchanger where stored thermal energy is transferred to the power cycle working fluid to drive the gas turbine power generation system, thereby converting the thermal energy back into electricity for the grid. The cold particles leaving the heat exchanger are returned to the storage silos by a well-insulated particle conveyor. This ETES technology using particle TES can be sited anywhere and is predicted to be economic and efficient. Moreover, this ETES technology could be co-located with a retired coal or gas plant to leverage existing power generation and grid infrastructure. Our work has focused on the development of each of the key components (e.g., the electric particle heater, particle storage silos, and the particle-to-gas pressurized fluidized bed heat exchanger) through conceptual designs, prototype testing, and computational modeling. These developments demonstrate technological feasibility and are an important step towards the next phase of development of this promising LDES technology. This presentation will show the progress in developing a pilot demonstration of the ETES system on a commercially relevant scale.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2023

A Multi-Dimensional Benefit Assessment of Automated Mobility Platforms (AMP) for Large Facilities: Mobility, Energy, Equity, and Facility Management & Design

The goal of the automated mobility platforms (AMPs) initiative is to raise the bar of service regarding equity and sustainability for public mobility systems that are crucial to large facilities, and doing so using electrified, energy efficient technology. Using airports as an example, the rapid growth in air travel demand has led to facility expansions and congested terminals, which directly impacts equity (e.g., increased challenges for Passengers with Reduced Mobility [PRMs]) and sustainability - both of which are important metrics often overlooked during the engineering design process. Therefore, to evaluate systems and inform critical near- and long-term decisions more effectively, a holistic evaluation framework is proposed focused on four key areas: (1) mobility, with emphasis on travel time and accessibility within an airport, (2) environment, focused on energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with intra-airport mobility, (3) equity, specifically to the PRM community, but with an eye to the whole of society, and (4) built environment, or the fundamental changes in building design enabled by different mobility systems for larger and more flexible, functional, and energy-efficient structures. Below, AMPs are defined, and each metric is discussed further, all with a focus on airport mobility.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2024

A Multi-Dimensional Benefit Assessment of Automated Mobility Platforms (AMP) for Large Facilities

Automated Mobility Platform (AMP) is a general term for intelligently managed passenger mobility systems that leverage automation and electrification to improve system performance and sustainability through the integration of real-time data streams with advanced decision-making processes tailored for use in large facilities. Using airports as an example, the rapid growth in air travel demand has led to facility expansions and congested terminals, which directly impacts equity (e.g., increased challenges for passengers with reduced mobility [PRMs]) and sustainability - both of which are important metrics often neglected during the engineering design process. Therefore, to evaluate systems and inform critical decisions more effectively, a holistic evaluation framework is proposed that includes equity, sustainability, and infrastructure perspectives - referred to as a multidimensional benefit assessment. More specifically, the following analysis focuses on: (1) mobility, with emphasis on travel time and accessibility within an airport, contrasting existing systems with the proposed AMP system; (2) equity analysis, specifically to the PRM community, but with an eye to the whole of society; (3) energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with intra-airport mobility, comparing and contrasting modes as well as impacts on overall airport operations efficiency; and (4) fundamental changes in building design enabled by AMPs for larger and more flexible, functional, and energy-efficient structures.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Sustainable Energy Solutions for Thermal Load in Buildings—Role of Heat Pumps, Solar Thermal, and Hydrogen-Based Cogeneration Systems

Economic and population growth is leading to increased energy demand across all sectors—buildings, transportation, and industry. Adoption of new energy consumers such as electric vehicles could further increase this growth. Sensible utilization of clean renewable energy resources is necessary to sustain this growth. Thermal needs in a building pose a significant challenge to the energy infrastructure. Potential technological solutions to address growing energy demand while simultaneously lowering the carbon footprint and enhancing the grid flexibility are presented in this study. Performance assessment of heat pumps, solar thermal collectors, nonfossil fuel-based cogeneration systems, and their hybrid configurations is reported in this study. The impact of design configuration, coefficient of performance (COP), electric grid’s primary energy efficiency on the key attributes of total carbon footprint, life cycle costs, operational energy savings, and site-specific primary energy efficiency are analyzed and discussed in detail. In conclusion, heat pumps and hydrogen-fueled solid oxide fuel cells (SOFCs) are highly effective building energy resources compared to traditional approaches; however, the carbon intensity of electrical energy and hydrogen production are keys to the overall environmental benefit.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2021

Hydrogen-Based Energy Storage Systems for Large-Scale Data Center Applications

Global demand for data and data access has spurred the rapid growth of the data center industry. To meet demands, data centers must provide uninterrupted service even during the loss of primary power. Service providers seeking ways to eliminate their carbon footprint are increasingly looking to clean and sustainable energy solutions, such as hydrogen technologies, as alternatives to traditional backup generators. In this viewpoint, a survey of the current state of data centers and hydrogen-based technologies is provided along with a discussion of the hydrogen storage and infrastructure requirements needed for large-scale backup power applications at data centers.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2025

Impact of electric vehicle battery recycling on reducing raw material demand and battery life-cycle carbon emissions in China

The rapid growth of electric vehicles (EVs) in China challenges raw material demand. This study evaluates the impact of recycling and reusing EV batteries on reducing material demand and carbon emissions. Integrating a national-level vehicle stock turnover model with life-cycle carbon emission assessment, we found that replacing nickel-cobalt-manganese batteries with lithium iron phosphate batteries with battery recycling can reduce lithium, cobalt, and nickel demand between 2021 and 2060 by up to 7.8 million tons (Mt) (67%), 12.4 Mt (96%), and 37.2 Mt (93%), respectively, significantly decreasing reliance on import. Moreover, battery recycling coupled with reuse can reduce carbon emissions by up to 6,532-6,864 Mt (36.0-37.9%), depending on four recycling methods employed. However, this reuse strategy delays battery recycling and risks lithium supply shortage, necessitating trade-offs between carbon reduction and material supply. Future technologies, such as lithium-sulfur and all-solid-state batteries, despite their energy efficiency, might exacerbate lithium shortage, underscoring the crucial need for increased lithium supply.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Space Cooling: Recovery, Reuse, Recycling and Supply Chain Impacts

The global cooling sector has undergone tremendous growth in recent years, and cooling demand is projected to double or triple by 2050. Surging air conditioning demand will continue to be driven by increased populations, incomes and occurrences of extreme heat and humidity events. Cooling equipment growth has important pollution and material implications as they are made up of critical metals and precious raw materials - including ferrous metals, copper, aluminum and printed circuit boards composed of copper, silver, gold and palladium - that generate significant electronic waste at end-of-life. Air conditioning equipment also contains fluorinated gas (F-gas) refrigerants, which are potent gases that are thousands of times more heat-trapping than carbon dioxide (CO2). While recovery, reuse, and recycling strategies have been assessed for cold chain and refrigeration, there is currently limited analysis on how these strategies could be adopted for the global space cooling industry and potential supply chain implications. This paper aims to address this research gap by qualitatively evaluating product and material recovery, reuse and recycling frameworks from both demand and supply-side perspectives and with the support of cooling-specific case studies. It also focuses on quantitatively assessing potential energy, emissions and resource benefits of such strategies for space cooling equipment. This paper first analyzes how existing recovery, reuse and recycling frameworks can be applied to space cooling, with emphasis on the demand-side enablers (e.g., innovative business models, supporting policies and regulations) and changes in supply-side production network throughout the supply chain (e.g., design, production and distribution, end-of-life recovery) needed to overcome existing barriers. It will present case studies of innovative business models for space cooling technologies, including reuse and recycling, and how effective refrigerant reclamation and recovery programs have been operationalized. Lastly, the paper will highlight global modeling results of energy, emissions and material recovery from scenario analysis of selected strategies for air conditioners. The findings of this paper are intended to inform the development of product and material recovery, reuse and recycling strategies for a rapidly growing stock of space conditioning equipment by addressing existing organizational, economic and regulatory barriers and potential supply-chain bottlenecks.

Khanna, Nina↗

DOE OSTI2024

The Challenge Ahead: A Critical Perspective on Meeting U.S. Growth Targets for Sustainable Aviation Fuel

With demand for jet fuel expected to more than double by 2050 and triple by 2070, continued and accelerated efforts to decarbonize the global aviation sector are needed to curtail rising emissions and avert the worst outcomes of climate change. In response to this call-to-action, the United States has unveiled the Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) Grand Challenge, which seeks to expedite the development of alternative fuel pathways that offer a minimum of a 50% reduction in life cycle greenhouse gas emissions compared to conventional jet fuel. However, there is growing concern on whether sufficient biomass will be readily available to satisfy the projected sharp rise in demand for SAF. Carbon dioxide point-source emissions combined with rising supply from direct air capture efforts have the potential to complement and offset any supply gaps for biomass-derived SAF and other use cases. Independent of the chosen feedstock and conversion technology, numerous challenges persist across SAF production in seeking to drive down fuel cost and carbon intensity. To hit the 2030 target of 3 billion gal/yr, this means about a 100% compound annual growth rate in volumetric SAF production (about 130 times scale-up) will need to be realized. To achieve the stretch goal of 35 billion gallons of SAF per year by 2050, volumetric production must increase by a factor of 12 from the 3-billion-gal/year 2030 target of SAF Grand Challenge. The comparatively longer runway for 2050 combined with significant production volume growth suggests a more inclusive "all-hands-on-deck"-style approach will likely play a role. A key component in success lies in the coordinated research, development, demonstration, and deployment efforts by multiple federal agencies and industry partnerships.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2023

U.S. State Renewables Portfolio & Clean Electricity Standards: 2023 Status Update [Slides]

This report provides an overview and status update on U.S. state renewables portfolio standards (RPS) and has been expanded from previous editions to also cover 100% clean electricity standards (CES) adopted by a growing number of states. The report, published in slide-deck form along with accompanying data files, describes recent legislative revisions, key policy design features, compliance with interim targets, past and projected impacts on clean electricity development, and compliance costs. The 2023 edition presents historical data through year-end 2022 and projections out to 2050. Key trends from this edition of the report include the following: -Evolution of state RPS and CES programs: States continue to refine and revise their RPS policies, often by adopting higher targets and/or broader CES policies. Among the 29 states plus DC with an RPS, 16 states have RPS targets of at least 50% of retail sales, and 17 states have a 100% CES or RPS target. -Historical impacts on renewables development: Roughly half of all growth in U.S. renewable electricity (RE) generation and capacity since 2000 is associated with state RPS requirements, though that percentage has declined in recent years, representing 30% of all U.S. RE capacity additions in 2022. Within some regions, particularly the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, RPS policies play a more central role in motivating RE growth. -Future RPS and CES demand and incremental needs: RPS and CES policies will require roughly 300 terawatt-hours (TWh) of additional clean electricity supply by 2030 and 800 TWh by 2050, requiring total U.S. non-hydro RE generation to reach 28% of electricity sales by 2050 (compared to 17% today). This amounts to roughly one-quarter of EIA’s projected RE growth through 2050. -RPS target achievement to-date: States have generally met their interim RPS targets in recent years, with only a few exceptions reflecting unique, state-specific issues. Most CES targets are not yet in force. -Renewable energy certificate (REC) pricing trends: Prices for NEPOOL Class I RECs remained at roughly $\$40$ /MWh over the past year, just below alternative compliance payment (ACP) rates in the larger state markets, while PJM Tier I REC prices continued to rise, reaching $\$30$ /MWh by year-end. Prices for solar RECs (or SRECs) remained relatively stable, and continue to exhibit wide variation across states, with the highest prices ($\$200-450$ /MWh) in NJ, MA, and DC. -RPS compliance costs: RPS compliance costs average roughly 3.5% of retail electricity bills across RPS states, though vary widely from state to state, with the highest costs (8-12% of retail bills) in states with solar carve-outs and high SREC prices.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Energy performance analysis of smart wall system with switchable insulation and thermal storage capacity

The ever-increasing global energy demand and the issues caused by population growth and unsustainable energy resource usages have several environmental and economic impacts. The on-demand capability of dynamic wall systems with switchable insulation systems can contribute toward energy efficiency and reduced electric cost using "building-as-a-battery." In this paper, the performance of an exterior envelope system that employs a switchable insulation system is investigated. A COMSOL simulation was used to study the envelope performance under three switchable insulation locations in the wall system. The on and off switching cycle included insulating or conducting the exterior, interior, or both sides of the mass wall system. To validate the simulation work, an experimental test was conducted in climate chamber on a 4 × 8 in. wall system with identical wall components used in the COMSOL simulation. Results show a good agreement between the experiment and simulation results. The wall system with switchable insulation placed on the exterior side provided the highest interior inward heat flux when compared with the interior or split insulation. Also, an exterior switchable insulation system in addition to a thermal mass maintained a positive heat flow for more hours when the outdoor temperature was lower than the interior temperature.

Iffa, Emishaw↗

DOE OSTI2023

Department of Energy’s Atmospheric System Research (ASR) Program’s Workshop on the Future of Atmospheric Large Eddy Simulation (LES): Workshop Report

Large-eddy simulation (LES) is used as a tool to understand physical processes such as turbulence, aerosols, clouds, precipitation, radiation, the interactions among all these, and their interactions with the underlying surface. Over the next 10 years, LES will drive fundamental progress in open scientific questions in these areas as LES is increasingly used to gain understanding of complex interacting physical processes involving atmospheric turbulence. This growth will be driven both by scientific demand and the expansion of computational resources needed to conduct LES, and the form that the growth takes will largely be determined by how computational resources are leveraged for scientific gain. In particular, we suggest that computational resources are likely to be leveraged in two separate but not necessarily distinct ways. On one hand, growth in computational resources will allow LES to be made more routine, that is, performed more frequently, while on the other hand, the computational expense (measured in total floating point operations) afforded to individual LES will expand dramatically, allowing simulations to increase in both domain size and resolution as well as physical detail. Current U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) projects such as LES ARM Symbiotic Simulation and Observation Activity (LASSO) are leading the way in conducting routine LES, building large, public databases that are accessible for data science, sensitivity studies, and training for machine learning. LES will also become more routine as it becomes more accessible for individual researchers to address their scientific questions of interest. Scientific questions addressed by LES over the next 10 years are likely to include cloud organization and aggregation; aerosol cloud interactions and atmospheric chemistry (including geo-engineering); urban-scale LES; atmospheric extreme events, ranging from small-scale severe weather to wildfires; and ocean-wave-atmosphere interactions. Further LES-related research will likely grow significantly in areas related to societal impact studies of air quality and extreme weather events, applications to renewable energy forecasting and resource assessment, and aid in decision-making processes. The growth in the use of LES in atmospheric science research will drive the need for better physical process representations (e.g., cloud aerosol microphysics, radiation, and atmospheric chemistry) at the scales resolved by LES. To date, many of the process representations used by LES have been taken directly from coarser-resolution models. Promising methods for LES process representations include superdroplet and quadrature methods for microphysics, 3D approaches for radiation, and better representation of chemistry and aerosol processes. At LES resolution, land-atmosphere interactions for complex terrains, land cover/types, biogeochemistry, and plant canopy models are needed as an improvement beyond traditional and widely used Monin-Obuhkov similarity theory.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Department of Energy’s Atmospheric System Research (ASR) Program’s Workshop on the Future of Atmospheric Large Eddy Simulation (LES) (Workshop Report)

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Department of Energy’s Atmospheric System Research (ASR) Program’s Workshop on the Future of Atmospheric Large Eddy Simulation (LES) (Workshop Report)

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Dynamic Material Flow Analysis of Silicon Photovoltaic Modules to Support a Circular Economy Transition

Solar photovoltaics (PV) are the fastest growing renewable energy technologies for clean, cheap, and sustainable electricity generation. To prepare for rapid scale-up, the PV industry needs to project material requirements to build out all aspects of the supply chain appropriately and plan to handle large volumes of module waste. Impacts of deploying different material circularity strategies to reduce waste and conserve primary resources need to be quantified to inform sustainable material management. Here, we introduce the photovoltaic dynamic material flow analysis (PV DMFA) model based on PV electricity generation. The model quantifies material flows and stocks in the cradle-to-cradle life cycles of utility-scale c-Si PV systems in the United States through 2100. We present case studies for solar flat glass and aluminum frame materials under various scenarios to project the impacts of PV performance, reliability, and processing parameters, material circularity strategies, and module design shifts. In the absence of circularity measures, ~100 million MT of flat glass and ~12 million MT of aluminum would be needed for PV installations by 2100 to meet projected growth in domestic utility PV demand to nearly 1000 TWh in 2100. With optimistic but feasible improvements in efficiency, reliability, and circularity, material intensity and waste could be reduced by nearly 50%. Efficient module collection, minimally intrusive recycling, and careful scrap handling and cleaning could improve material circularity in the PV value chain. This model serves as a sustainability data support tool that may aid in the circular economy transition for PV systems.

circular economy↗

DOE OSTI2020

Molecular Insight into Fluorocarbon Adsorption in Pore Expanded Metal–Organic Framework Analogs

The rapid growth in the global energy demand for space cooling requires the development of more efficient environmental chillers for which adsorption-based cooling systems can be utilized. Here, in this contribution, we explore sorbents for chiller use via a pore-engineering concept to construct analogs of the 1-dimensional pore metal–organic framework MOF-74 by using elongated organic linkers and stereochemistry control. The prepared pore-engineered MOFs show remarkable equilibrium adsorption of the selected fluorocarbon refrigerant that is translated to a modeled adsorption-based refrigeration cycle. To probe molecular level interactions at the origin of these unique adsorption properties for this series of Ni-MOFs, we combined in situ synchrotron X-ray powder diffraction, neutron powder diffraction, X-ray absorption spectroscopy, calorimetry, Fourier transform infrared techniques, and molecular simulations. Our results reveal the coordination of fluorine (of CH2F in R134a) to the nickel(II) open metal centers at low pressures for each Ni-MOF analog and provide insight into the pore filling mechanism for the full range of the adsorption isotherms. The newly designed Ni-TPM demonstrates exceptional R134a adsorption uptake compared to its parent microporous Ni-MOF-74 due to larger engineered pore size/volume. The application of this adsorption performance toward established chiller conditions yields a working capacity increase for Ni-TPM of about 400% from that of Ni-MOF-74, which combined with kinetics directly correlates to both a higher coefficient of performance and a higher average cooling capacity generated in a modeled chiller.

Zheng, Jian↗

DOE OSTI2023

High-bandwidth density silicon photonic resonators for energy-efficient optical interconnects

The growth of artificial intelligence applications demands ever larger and more complex deep learning models, dominating today's—and tomorrow's—data center and high-performance computing systems. While traditional electronics are failing to keep pace with application demands, silicon photonic (SiPh) interconnects have emerged as a necessary technology to support these systems. SiPh-driven wavelength-division multiplexing (WDM) offers a particularly promising path toward supporting incredibly high-aggregate link bandwidth in a compact and efficient form factor. One of the basic building blocks of these integrated WDM interconnects is the SiPh resonator. Their inherent wavelength selectivity and compact footprint allow for efficient data transmission multiplexed across dozens of carrier wavelengths. Used as add-drop (AD) filters, SiPh resonators are critical to constructing integrated tunable wavelength-selective optical circuit switches as well as for demultiplexing the different carrier wavelengths toward independent wavelength-insensitive photodiodes in a dense wavelength-division multiplexing receiver. Resonators in the all-pass (AP) configuration are widespread as well, allowing for wavelength-selective modulation to drive aggregate link bandwidths far beyond the individual channel data rate. Unlike SiPh Mach–Zehnder modulators (MZM), resonant modulators can be driven using low, complementary metal-oxide-semiconductor drive voltages, allowing for tight co-integration between photonic integrated circuits, fabricated with larger process node technologies, and electronic integrated circuits, designed to exploit the advantages of the latest node. To push toward practical peta-scale interconnects, a comprehensive review of SiPh resonators is required, addressing bottlenecks and design constraints at both the architecture and device levels. We first describe the predominant integrated link architectures and identify their limits. We then discuss the device-level design considerations that can be made for both AD and AP configuration resonators to overcome the system level limits with novel resonator device designs. Analytical models and numerical simulation of resonators are validated by experimental measurement of devices fabricated in a commercial 300-mm foundry, showing a clear path toward volume manufacturing. The demonstrated resonant modulators and filters support the feasibility of increasing the aggregate bandwidth of resonator-driven SiPh interconnects into the peta-scale regime.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Exploring Renewable Energy Opportunities in Select Southeast Asian Countries: A Geospatial Analysis of the Levelized Cost of Energy of Utility-Scale Wind and Solar Photovoltaics

The costs of renewable energy-based electricity generation have fallen precipitously in recent years to levels that are increasingly competitive with traditional generation such as fossil fuel-based generation. As these costs become increasingly competitive, private developers, policymakers, and energy system planners are searching for opportunities to harness high-quality renewable energy resources. Developing economies are setting ambitious targets and exploring how cost-effective, grid-connected renewable energy options can help power economic growth and meet growing electricity demands. This includes the member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) that are determined to reach a target of 23% of renewable energy in the region's total primary energy supply by 2025. A critical gap to identifying opportunities and scaling up renewable energy is the lack of quality data and analyses to support decisions on the investment and deployment of renewables - including wind and solar photovoltaics (PV). This work supports decision making by providing high-quality data and spatial analysis of the cost of utility-scale wind and solar PV generation in select countries of Southeast Asia - specifically, the ASEAN member states. Generation costs are expressed as the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) - a commonly used metric that represents the net present value of the unit cost of electricity during the lifetime of a particular electricity generation technology. This is the first spatial estimate of LCOE for these technologies within the ASEAN member states - providing insights into the roles that renewable energy resource quality and other factors may play in generation costs.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

U.S. State Renewables Portfolio & Clean Electricity Standards: 2024 Status Update [Slides]

This report provides an overview and status update on U.S. state renewables portfolio standards (RPS) and has been expanded from previous editions to also cover 100% clean electricity standards (CES) adopted by a growing number of states. The report, published in slide-deck form along with accompanying data files, describes recent legislative revisions, key policy design features, compliance with interim targets, past and projected impacts on clean electricity development, and compliance costs. The 2023 edition presents historical data through year-end 2023 and projections out to 2050. Key trends from this edition of the report include the following: -Evolution of state RPS and CES programs: States continue to refine and revise their RPS policies, often by adopting higher targets and/or broader CES policies. Among the 29 states plus DC with an RPS, 16 have RPS targets of at least 50% of retail sales, and 4 states have a 100% RPS. An additional 16 states have adopted a broader 100% CES. -Historical impacts on renewables development: Almost half of all growth in U.S. renewable electricity (RE) generation and capacity since 2000 is nominally associated with state RPS requirements. That percentage has declined over time to 35% of all U.S. RE capacity additions in 2023, though in certain regions RPS policies continue to play a dominant role in driving RE growth. -Future RPS and CES demand and incremental needs: The combined demand for clean electricity from RPS and CES policies will grow from roughly 500 TWh today to 1700 TWh by 2050. Accounting for current supplies—including existing nuclear and hydroelectric generation eligible for CES targets—RPS and CES policies will require 900 TWh of new clean electricity by 2050, equivalent to roughly 3x the historical rate of RPS-buildout. -RPS target achievement to-date: States have generally met their interim RPS targets in recent years, with only a few exceptions reflecting unique, state-specific issues. Most CES targets are not yet in force, and so little compliance experience to-date. -REC pricing trends: Prices for NEPOOL Class I RECs remained at roughly $\$40$/MWh over the past year, just below ACP rates in the larger state markets, while PJM Tier I REC prices continued to rise, reaching $\$35$/MWh by year-end 2023 and surpassing ACP levels in some states. Prices for solar RECs remained relatively stable, and continue to exhibit wide variation across states, with the highest prices ($200-450/MWh) in NJ, MA, and DC. -RPS compliance costs: RPS compliance costs average roughly 4% of retail electricity bills across RPS states, though vary widely from state to state, with the highest costs (11-12% of retail bills) in states with solar carve-outs and high SREC prices.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗