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DOE OSTI2024

Evaluating Impacts of Sustainable Aviation Fuel Production with CO2-to-Fuels Technologies on High Renewable Share Power Grid: Preprint

This paper investigates the impact of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) production using CO2-to-Fuels technologies on a future power grid with a high share of renewable energy. We focus on understanding the implications of the 2050 SAF production goal on the U.S. power system's long-term planning, encompassing generation, transmission, and cost analysis. Via the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model, we developed a detailed SAF electricity demand model based on a low-temperature electrolysis-syngas fermentation-ethanol pathway. Four SAF target scenarios which aimto meet 10%, 15%, 20%, and 27% of SAF demand by 2050. These scenarios are exhaustively simulated to assess their impact on the power grid. Our results reveal that increasing SAF demand will result in higher electricity requirements, as well as expanded generator and transmission capacities, leading to an overall rise in system costs. However, these impacts are manageable within the broader context of U.S. capacity expansion plans. This study provides valuable insights into incorporating the CO2-to-Fuels electricity demand model and other carbon capture technologies into power system planning, emphasizing their significance in shaping a sustainable energy future.

BIOMASS FUELS,ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

NASA NTRS1993

Generating and evaluating alternate schedules

The demand for and availability of Space Network resources are subject to short-term fluctuations and long-term changes. Generation of acceptable schedules under changing demand and resource availability will require the use of different scheduling policies. This paper identifies several such scheduling policies. It defines metrics for evaluating schedules using the criteria directly related to these scheduling policies. Then it applies the metrics to compare several schedules generated for a scenario representative of 1998 SN demand and resources. Finally, the paper describes a method for using these metrics to evaluate schedules based on multiple criteria.

Reddy, Surender D.↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Circularity Assessment for Silicon Solar Panels Based on Dynamic Material Flow Analysis

Solar photovoltaics (PV) are the fastest growing renewable energy technology for clean, inexpensive, and sustainable electricity generation. Along with numerous technical roadmaps to improve system cost, performance and reliability, the PV industry should also plan to handle large volumes of silicon panel waste, which is initially estimated to be ~13 million metric tons (MT) by 2050 in the U.S. alone. Understanding the magnitude of material needs and how material flows throughout the PV panel life cycle could respond to design, operational and different end-of-life (EOL) circular pathways will help transition into a circular, resource-conserving economy. Herein, we introduce a dynamic material flow analysis (DMFA) framework based on electricity generation to quantify time-series stocks and flows of bulk PV materials (e.g., solar glass and aluminum frames) throughout the life cycles of utility-scale silicon PV systems in the U.S. in the period 2000-2100. We apply the model to a range of scenarios to understand how material demands depend on selected PV-related parameters, different material circularity strategies, and recent module design trends (e.g., bifacial, frameless). We found that float glass and aluminum in PV installations would likely reach 100 million MT and 12 million MT by 2100, respectively, in the baseline scenario. The most influential parameters for PV installation and subsequent waste reduction are found to be module lifetime, module efficiency, annual degradation, and material reduction. Module recycling and component remanufacturing were found to be the most effective material circularity strategies for waste minimization. Panel reuse has negligible savings on waste under current module efficiencies compared to replacements with newer generations with higher efficiency. Ongoing trends to produce larger power frameless modules could save 10 million MT of glass and ~9 million MT of aluminum. Our results enable advanced planning for future materials needs and provide insight into potential opportunities to minimize waste.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Circularity Assessment for Silicon Solar Panels Based on Dynamic Material Flow Analysis: Preprint

circular economy↗

DOE OSTI2021

Integrated Water-Power System Resilience Analysis in a Southeastern Idaho Irrigation District: Minidoka Case Study

This study investigates the joint water–power system resilience of an irrigation district in southeastern Idaho. Irrigation districts face difficulties in the delivery of water to farmers under drought conditions, during equipment failures, or unplanned infrastructure disruptions. The resilience of interconnected water and power systems can be better analyzed and understood through an integrated approach, using a model that connects the dependencies between the two halves of the system. Using a multi-agent system model capturing both water and power system components, as well as their linkages, we capture the interdependencies of these systems and highlight opportunities for improvement when faced with disruptions. Through simulation scenarios, we examine the system resilience using system performance, quantified as the percentage of met demand of the power and water system, when subjected to drought water year, an unforeseen water demand increase, power outage and dam failure. Scenario results indicate that the effects of low flow years are mostly felt in the power system; unexpected increases in water demand marginally impact irrigation system performance; dams and pumps present vulnerabilities of the system, causing substantial unmet demand during disruptions. Noting the interdependencies between the water–power system halves while leveraging an integrated simulation allows for an insightful analysis of the system impacts during disruptions.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Evaluating Impacts of Sustainable Aviation Fuel Production with CO2-to-Fuels Technologies on High Renewable Share Power Grid

This paper investigates the impact of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) production using CO 2 -to-Fuels technologies on a future power grid with a high share of renewable energy. We focus on understanding the implications of the 2050 SAF production goal on the U.S. power system's long-term planning, encompassing generation, transmission, and cost analysis. Via the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model, we developed a detailed SAF electricity demand model based on a low-temperature electrolysis-syngas fermentation-ethanol pathway. Four SAF target scenarios which aim to meet 10%, 15%, 20%, and 27% of SAF demand by 2050. These scenarios are exhaustively simulated to assess their impact on the power grid. Our results reveal that increasing SAF demand will result in higher electricity requirements, as well as expanded generator and transmission capacities, leading to an overall rise in system costs. However, these impacts are manageable within the broader context of U.S. capacity expansion plans. This study provides valuable insights into incorporating the CO 2 -to-Fuels electricity demand model and other carbon capture technologies into power system planning, emphasizing their significance in shaping a sustainable energy future.

capacity expansion model↗

DOE OSTI2024

Evaluating Impacts of Sustainable Aviation Fuel Production with CO2-to-Fuels Technologies on High Renewable Share Power Grids

This paper investigates the impact of Sustainable Aviation Fuel production using CO2-to-Fuels technologies on a future power grid with a high share of renewable energy. We focus on understanding the implications of the 2050 SAF production goal on the U.S. power system's long-term planning, encompassing generation, transmission, and cost analysis. Via the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model, we developed a detailed SAF electricity demand model based on a low-temperature electrolysis-syngas fermentation-ethanol pathway. Four SAF target scenarios which aims to meet 10%, 15%, 20%, and 27% of SAF demand by 2050. These scenarios are exhaustively simulated to assess their impact on the power grid. Our results reveal that increasing SAF demand will result in higher electricity requirements, as well as expanded generator and transmission capacities, leading to an overall rise in system costs. However, these impacts are manageable within the broader context of U.S. capacity expansion plans. This study provides valuable insights into incorporating the CO2-to-Fuels electricity demand model and other carbon capture technologies in power system planning, emphasizing their significance in shaping a sustainable energy future.

BIOMASS FUELS,POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRS2011

Orion Entry Handling Qualities Assessments

The Orion Command Module (CM) is a capsule designed to bring crew back from the International Space Station (ISS), the moon and beyond. The atmospheric entry portion of the flight is deigned to be flown in autopilot mode for nominal situations. However, there exists the possibility for the crew to take over manual control in off-nominal situations. In these instances, the spacecraft must meet specific handling qualities criteria. To address these criteria two separate assessments of the Orion CM s entry Handling Qualities (HQ) were conducted at NASA s Johnson Space Center (JSC) using the Cooper-Harper scale (Cooper & Harper, 1969). These assessments were conducted in the summers of 2008 and 2010 using the Advanced NASA Technology Architecture for Exploration Studies (ANTARES) six degree of freedom, high fidelity Guidance, Navigation, and Control (GN&C) simulation. This paper will address the specifics of the handling qualities criteria, the vehicle configuration, the scenarios flown, the simulation background and setup, crew interfaces and displays, piloting techniques, ratings and crew comments, pre- and post-fight briefings, lessons learned and changes made to improve the overall system performance. The data collection tools, methods, data reduction and output reports will also be discussed. The objective of the 2008 entry HQ assessment was to evaluate the handling qualities of the CM during a lunar skip return. A lunar skip entry case was selected because it was considered the most demanding of all bank control scenarios. Even though skip entry is not planned to be flown manually, it was hypothesized that if a pilot could fly the harder skip entry case, then they could also fly a simpler loads managed or ballistic (constant bank rate command) entry scenario. In addition, with the evaluation set-up of multiple tasks within the entry case, handling qualities ratings collected in the evaluation could be used to assess other scenarios such as the constant bank angle maintenance case. The 2008 entry assessment was divided into two sections (see Figure 1). Entry I was the first, high speed portion of a lunar return and Entry II was the second, lower speed portion of a lunar return, which is similar (but not identical) to a typical ISS return.

Bihari, B.↗

DOE OSTI2020

The role of nuclear in China’s energy future: insights from integrated assessment

China, the world’s largest electricity consumer, has strong motivations to deploy nuclear power due to increasing electricity demand and environmental concerns. However, there are social, institutional, and technical barriers to future nuclear expansion. This paper provides an updated assessment of nuclear energy potential in China with analyses at both national and provincial levels and compares results with studies previously conducted. Using an integrated assessment model, this paper considers the interactions among different socioeconomic development pathways, technology options, climate policies, and social/political concerns on inland siting. Among all factors explored, climate policies have the most significant impact on accelerating the deployment of nuclear technologies. Inland siting of nuclear power plants increases total capacity, but the impact is limited without climate policy. The amount of annual nuclear generation across scenarios and studies is unlikely to rise above 11% by 2030 and 30% by 2050 of total Chinese electricity generation. A dramatic increase in total Chinese nuclear energy generating capacity – around 3900 TWh of nuclear generation by 2050 – is only possible in scenarios where China sees electricity demand increase substantially, sticks to and tightens its current Paris Accord commitments, achieves low costs of nuclear technologies, and allows inland siting of nuclear power plants.

China, integrated assesment, Nuclear Power Plants↗

DOE OSTI2023

Estimating Future Surface Water Availability Through an Integrated Climate‐Hydrology‐Management Modeling Framework at a Basin Scale Under CMIP6 Scenarios

Abstract Climate change and increasing water demand due to population growth pose serious threats to surface water availability. The biggest challenge in addressing these threats is the gap between climate science and water management practices. Local water planning often lacks the integration of climate change information, especially with regard to its impacts on surface water storage and evaporation as well as the associated uncertainties. Using Texas as an example, state and regional water planning relies on the use of reservoir “Firm Yield” (FY)—an important metric that quantifies surface water availability. However, this existing planning methodology does not account for the impacts of climate change on future inflows and on reservoir evaporation. To bridge this knowledge gap, an integrated climate‐hydrology‐management (CHM) modeling framework was developed, which is generally applicable to river basins with geographical, hydrological, and water right settings similar to those in Texas. The framework leverages the advantages of two modeling approaches—the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM) and Water Availability Modeling (WAM). Additionally, the Double Bias Correction Constructed Analogues method is utilized to downscale and incorporate Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 GCMs. Finally, the DHSVM simulated naturalized streamflow and reservoir evaporation rate are input to WAM to simulate reservoir FY. A new term—“Ratio of Firm Yield” (RFY)—is created to compare how much FY changes under different climate scenarios. The results indicate that climate change has a significant impact on surface water availability by increasing reservoir evaporation, altering the seasonal pattern of naturalized streamflow, and reducing FY.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2008

Development and Application of an Integrated Approach toward NASA Airspace Systems Research

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Airspace Systems Program is contributing air traffic management research in support of the 2025 Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen). Contributions support research and development needs provided by the interagency Joint Planning and Development Office (JPDO). These needs generally call for integrated technical solutions that improve system-level performance and work effectively across multiple domains and planning time horizons. In response, the Airspace Systems Program is pursuing an integrated research approach and has adapted systems engineering best practices for application in a research environment. Systems engineering methods aim to enable researchers to methodically compare different technical approaches, consider system-level performance, and develop compatible solutions. Systems engineering activities are performed iteratively as the research matures. Products of this approach include a demand and needs analysis, system-level descriptions focusing on NASA research contributions, system assessment and design studies, and common systemlevel metrics, scenarios, and assumptions. Results from the first systems engineering iteration include a preliminary demand and needs analysis; a functional modeling tool; and initial system-level metrics, scenario characteristics, and assumptions. Demand and needs analysis results suggest that several advanced concepts can mitigate demand/capacity imbalances for NextGen, but fall short of enabling three-times current-day capacity at the nation s busiest airports and airspace. Current activities are focusing on standardizing metrics, scenarios, and assumptions, conducting system-level performance assessments of integrated research solutions, and exploring key system design interfaces.

Barhydt, Richard↗

DOE OSTI2020

Early retirement of power plants in climate mitigation scenarios

International efforts to avoid dangerous climate change aim for large and rapid reductions of fossil fuel CO 2 emissions worldwide, including nearly complete decarbonization of the electric power sector. However, achieving such rapid reductions may depend on early retirement of coal- and natural gas-fired power plants. Here, we analyze future fossil fuel electricity demand in 171 energy-emissions scenarios from Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), evaluating the implicit retirements and/or reduced operation of generating infrastructure. Although IAMs calculate retirements endogenously, the structure and methods of each model differ; we use a standard approach to infer retirements in outputs from all six major IAMs and—unlike the IAMs themselves—we begin with the age distribution and region-specific operating capacities of the existing power fleet. We find that coal-fired power plants in scenarios consistent with international climate targets (i.e. keeping global warming well-below 2 °C or 1.5 °C) retire one to three decades earlier than historically has been the case. If plants are built to meet projected fossil electricity demand and instead allowed to operate at the level and over the lifetimes they have historically, the roughly 200 Gt CO 2 of additional emissions this century would be incompatible with keeping global warming well-below 2 °C. Thus, ambitious climate mitigation scenarios entail drastic, and perhaps un-appreciated, changes in the operating and/or retirement schedules of power infrastructure.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Assessment of the polygeneration approach in wastewater treatment plants for enhanced energy efficiency and green hydrogen/ammonia production

Wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) offer opportunities to optimize resource utilization and enhance energy efficiency. Here, this study provides a comprehensive analysis of using the polygeneration approach in WWTPs to reduce grid energy dependence, optimize energy distribution, and utilize surplus energy for hydrogen (H 2 ) and ammonia (NH 3 ) production. Several models were employed, including photovoltaic (PV) cells, parabolic trough collectors (PTCs), steam methane reforming, and polymer electrolyte membranes, to assess the feasibility of this approach. Three scenarios were evaluated and compared: Scenario 1 (Baseline) represents the current situation, Scenario 2 maximizes the Net Present Value (NPV), and Scenario 3 minimizes NH 3 production costs. Real data from As-Samra WWTP in Jordan was used to accurately assess the feasibility of each scenario. The results show that Scenario 2 offers the highest profitability and efficiency, with a NPV of 87.48 million USD and an annual NH 3 production of 15,417 tons, reducing both grid dependency and biogas fuel consumption. Both Scenarios 2 and 3 demonstrate the ability to meet thermal demands efficiently while generating significant revenue from NH 3 production. Scenario 3, in particular, achieves competitive H 2 and NH 3 production costs. Environmentally, Scenario 2 significantly reduces annual greenhouse gas emissions by 12.66 kilotons of CO 2eq , with near-zero carbon intensity for thermal energy due to solar reliance. In conclusion, the polygeneration approach offers a promising pathway for WWTPs to achieve greater sustainability, economic gains, and reduced environmental impact, providing valuable insights for decision-makers.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Geomagnetically Induced Current Field Test on Large Grid-Connected Power Transformers: Analysis, Model Development, and Simulations

Geomagnetic-induced current (GIC) flow in power grids can cause undesirable effects such as transformer overheating, harmonics, higher reactive power demand, etc. Many simulation models have been developed to study these effects, but real-world verification on modern transformer designs is rare. Here, this paper presents the first long-duration GIC field test in the U.S. performed on high-voltage, grid-connected transformers featuring winding clamps and tie rods instead of conventional tie bars. Field measurements were taken to evaluate GIC effects. These measurements also aided in developing and validating thermal and electromagnetic transient (EMT) models of the transformers. During the test, significant current and voltage distortions were observed along with considerable transformer reactive power losses. Analysis of the field measurements showed that the transformers’ hottest spot was at the inner windings, and their k-factors were close to factory test and software default values. Thermal simulations indicated that the transformers would not violate their thermal limits even for a GIC waveform that peaks at about 200 A/phase. EMT simulations revealed that increased transformer loading may reduce GIC-induced reactive power demand and harmonics in certain scenarios. The study also highlighted potential inaccuracies in using the k-factor method to calculate transformer reactive power losses.

EMTDC↗

NASA NTRS1978

Cargo Logistics Airlift Systems Study (CLASS). Volume 3: Cross impact between the 1990 market and the air physical distribution systems, book 2

Book 2 of this volume is divided into the following sections: (1) commodities and system networks; (2) future mode choice decisions and commodity air eligibility; (3) comparative cargo transportation costs - air, truck, rail and water; (4) elasticities of demand; (5) operating cost; (6) operating profit, rate making, and returns; (7) importance of rate and service on future aircraft; (8) potential market demand for new aircraft; (9) scenario of events affecting system/market growth; and (10) future study and technology requirements.

Burby, R. J.↗

NASA NTRS2013

An Onboard ISS Virtual Reality Trainer

Prior to the retirement of the Space Shuttle, many exterior repairs on the International Space Station (ISS) were carried out by shuttle astronauts, trained on the ground and flown to the station to perform these repairs. After the retirement of the shuttle, this is no longer an available option. As such, the need for the ISS crew members to review scenarios while on flight, either for tasks they already trained or for contingency operations has become a very critical subject. In many situations, the time between the last session of Neutral Buoyancy Laboratory (NBL) training and an Extravehicular Activity (EVA) task might be 6 to 8 months. In order to help with training for contingency repairs and to maintain EVA proficiency while on flight, the Johnson Space Center Virtual Reality Lab (VRLab) designed an onboard immersive ISS Virtual Reality Trainer (VRT), incorporating a unique optical system and making use of the already successful Dynamic Onboard Ubiquitous Graphical (DOUG) graphics software, to assist crew members with current procedures and contingency EVAs while on flight. The VRT provides an immersive environment similar to the one experienced at the VRLab crew training facility at NASA Johnson Space Center. EVA tasks are critical for a mission since as time passes the crew members may lose proficiency on previously trained tasks. In addition, there is an increased need for unplanned contingency repairs to fix problems arising as the ISS ages. The need to train and re-train crew members for EVAs and contingency scenarios is crucial and extremely demanding. ISS crew members are now asked to perform EVA tasks for which they have not been trained and potentially have never seen before.

Miralles, Evelyn↗

NASA NTRS2013

An Onboard ISS Virtual Reality Trainer

Prior to the retirement of the Space Shuttle, many exterior repairs on the International Space Station (ISS) were carried out by shuttle astronauts, trained on the ground and flown to the Station to perform these specific repairs. With the retirement of the shuttle, this is no longer an available option. As such, the need for ISS crew members to review scenarios while on flight, either for tasks they already trained for on the ground or for contingency operations has become a very critical issue. NASA astronauts prepare for Extra-Vehicular Activities (EVA) or Spacewalks through numerous training media, such as: self-study, part task training, underwater training in the Neutral Buoyancy Laboratory (NBL), hands-on hardware reviews and training at the Virtual Reality Laboratory (VRLab). In many situations, the time between the last session of a training and an EVA task might be 6 to 8 months. EVA tasks are critical for a mission and as time passes the crew members may lose proficiency on previously trained tasks and their options to refresh or learn a new skill while on flight are limited to reading training materials and watching videos. In addition, there is an increased need for unplanned contingency repairs to fix problems arising as the Station ages. In order to help the ISS crew members maintain EVA proficiency or train for contingency repairs during their mission, the Johnson Space Center's VRLab designed an immersive ISS Virtual Reality Trainer (VRT). The VRT incorporates a unique optical system that makes use of the already successful Dynamic On-board Ubiquitous Graphics (DOUG) software to assist crew members with procedure reviews and contingency EVAs while on board the Station. The need to train and re-train crew members for EVAs and contingency scenarios is crucial and extremely demanding. ISS crew members are now asked to perform EVA tasks for which they have not been trained and potentially have never seen before. The Virtual Reality Trainer (VRT) provides an immersive 3D environment similar to the one experienced at the VRLab crew training facility at the NASA Johnson Space Center. VRT bridges the gap by allowing crew members to experience an interactive, 3D environment to reinforce skills already learned and to explore new work sites and repair procedures outside the Station.

Miralles, Evelyn↗

DOE OSTI2021

Energy Efficient, Cost-Effective Power and Co-Generation Technologies: Techno-Environmental Analysis

Development of energy solutions for addressing grid resiliency and energy efficiency while lowering greenhouse gas emissions is critical in today’s energy scenario. Chemical energy provides on demand power. Cogeneration technologies offer numerous benefits in meeting the growing energy demand while lowering the impact on environment. Utilization of waste heat from prime movers in conjunction with energy efficient heat pumps and renewable photovoltaics is an attractive approach. Efficient utilization of available resources to support current and future building energy needs targeting grid resiliency, energy and environmental security via co-generation approaches is the focus of this study. A detailed techno-environmental analysis of hybrid system configurations consisting of conventional and emerging technologies utilizing natural gas, electric grid, and renewable power resources along with heat recovery systems and heat pump technologies are analyzed and presented. The key objective is to present integrated system configurations and thermodynamic analysis of various co-generation systems suitable for providing building energy. Design solutions targeting low carbon footprint and high energy efficiency are presented.

Cheekatamarla, Praveen↗