Results for “distribution systems state estimation” — Page 7

NASA NTRS2019

A Comparative Study on Computation of Cumulative Distribution Function in Predicting Time of Failure of Engineering Systems

Estimating accurate Time-of-Failure (ToF) of a system is key in making the decisions that impact operational safety and optimize cost. In this context, it is interesting to note that different approaches have been explored to tackle the problem of estimating ToF. The difference is in part characterized by different definitions of the hazard zones. The conventional definition for the cumulative distribution function (CDF) calculation is assumed to have well-defined hazard zones, that is, hazard zones defined as a function of the system state trajectory. An alternate method suggests the use of hazard zones defined as a function of the system state at time , instead of hazard zones defined as a function of system state up to and including time k (Acuna and Orchard 2018, 2017). This paper explores these differences and their impact on ToF estimation. Results for the conventional CDF definition indicated that, (i) the cumulative distribution function is always an increasing function of time, even when realizations of the degradation process are not monotonic, (ii) the sum of all probabilities is always 1 and does not need to be normalized, and (iii) all probabilities are positive and less than or equal to 1. Similar results are not observed for CDF calculation with hazard zones defined as a function only of the system state at time . Results for ToF estimation using Acuna's definition differ, suggesting that there is an underlying assumption of independence in the hazard zone definition. Therefore, we present an alternate definition of hazard zone which guarantees the properties of a well-defined CDF with a more straightforward ToF definition.

Hazard Zone↗

NASA NTRS2008

Observability and Estimation of Distributed Space Systems via Local Information-Exchange Networks

In this work, we develop an approach to formation estimation by explicitly characterizing formation's system-theoretic attributes in terms of the underlying inter-spacecraft information-exchange network. In particular, we approach the formation observer/estimator design by relaxing the accessibility to the global state information by a centralized observer/estimator- and in turn- providing an analysis and synthesis framework for formation observers/estimators that rely on local measurements. The noveltyof our approach hinges upon the explicit examination of the underlying distributed spacecraft network in the realm of guidance, navigation, and control algorithmic analysis and design. The overarching goal of our general research program, some of whose results are reported in this paper, is the development of distributed spacecraft estimation algorithms that are scalable, modular, and robust to variations inthe topology and link characteristics of the formation information exchange network. In this work, we consider the observability of a spacecraft formation from a single observation node and utilize the agreement protocol as a mechanism for observing formation states from local measurements. Specifically, we show how the symmetry structure of the network, characterized in terms of its automorphism group, directly relates to the observability of the corresponding multi-agent system The ramification of this notion of observability over networks is then explored in the context of distributed formation estimation.

observability↗

DOE OSTI2023

Model-Free Probabilistic Forecasting of Nodal Voltages in Distribution Systems

As the penetration of distributed energy resources (DERs) into distribution systems increases, so does the interest in forecasting relevant system variables to help mitigate the associated challenges. One such challenge is the more frequent occurrence of excessive voltages in distribution systems with higher shares of DERs. Accurate and reliable estimates together with forecasts of system states (i.e., nodal voltages) will therefore play a key role in improving the utilization of these variable and uncertain sources while mitigating potential operational risks. Whilst recent literature has explored machine learning (ML) methods for voltage estimation and their extrapolation for a short-time period into the future, few have taken uncertainty quantification into account, and these methods have not yet been translated into operations. This paper discusses the advantages offered by probabilistic voltage forecasts and proposes a non-parametric Bayesian method suitable for forecasting nodal voltages at short-term time horizons while accounting for uncertainties in load and distributed photovoltaic (PV) generation. We demonstrate the value of the proposed Gaussian process (GP) model for a case study using historical forecasts and observation data.

distribution system↗

NASA NTRS2023

Measurements and Computations of Natural Transition on the NASA Juncture-Flow Model with a Symmetric Wing

Experiments were performed in the 14- by 22-Foot Subsonic Tunnel to assess natural transition on the symmetric-airfoil wings of the NASA Juncture-Flow Model. Infrared thermography was used to visualize the heating on the upper surface of both wings of the full-span model, and on the fuselage, for angles of incidence ranging from -10° to 10° at a fixed Reynolds number of 2.4E6 based on the chord length at the wing planform break. The fuselage boundary layer transitioned well upstream of the wing-root leading edge for all conditions. Transition fronts were identified by a steep rise in the surface temperature, and the transition coordinates were transformed from an image-based to a body-fixed system. Additionally, the state of the boundary layer was estimated at pressure ports distributed on the wings through observation of the pressure coefficient as a function of the angle of incidence. For increasing angles of incidence, the transition front was observed to advance upstream, in a mostly spanwise-uniform fashion, from near midchord at α = 0°; however, for increasingly negative angles of incidence, the transition front first receded and then advanced in a nonuniform jagged manner that is typically observed with stationary crossflow. The transition wedges first appeared inboard of the wing break and then spread outboard to near the tip by α = -6°. The upstream shift in transition at positive angles of incidence and the outboard progression of crossflow-dominated transition at increasingly negative angles of incidence are consistent with trends identified in a computational assessment of the boundary-layer transition based on both linear stability analysis and Reynolds-averaged-Navier-Stokes-based transition models. The stability results obtained from the Langley Stability and Transition Analysis Code were used to recalibrate a dual N-factor criterion, which allowed for the prediction of transition fronts that showed excellent agreement with the experiment. The Reynolds-averaged-Navier-Stokes-based models, from the NASA OVERFLOW 2.3 solver, that accounted for the crossflow instability showed mixed results in comparison with the experiment, with the helicity-based Langtry-Menter model performing the best. The experimental data, particularly the cases involving strong influence from both Tollmien-Schlichting and crossflow instabilities, will be valuable for the continued validation and improvement of transition models.

Boundary layer transition↗

NASA NTRS2023

Measurements and Computations of Natural Transition on the NASA Juncture-Flow Model with a Symmetric Wing

Experiments were performed in the 14- by 22-Foot Subsonic Tunnel to assess natural transition on the symmetric-airfoil wings of the NASA Juncture-Flow Model. Infrared thermography was used to visualize the heating on the upper surface of both wings of the full-span model, and on the fuselage, for angles of incidence ranging from -10° to 10° at a fixed Reynolds number of 2.4E6 based on the chord length at the wing planform break. The fuselage boundary layer transitioned well upstream of the wing-root leading edge for all conditions. Transition fronts were identified by a steep rise in the surface temperature, and the transition coordinates were transformed from an image-based to a body-fixed system. Additionally, the state of the boundary layer was estimated at pressure ports distributed on the wings through observation of the pressure coefficient as a function of the angle of incidence. For increasing angles of incidence, the transition front was observed to advance upstream, in a mostly spanwise-uniform fashion, from near midchord at α = 0°; however, for increasingly negative angles of incidence, the transition front first receded and then advanced in a nonuniform jagged manner that is typically observed with stationary crossflow. The transition wedges first appeared inboard of the wing break and then spread outboard to near the tip by α = -6°. The upstream shift in transition at positive angles of incidence and the outboard progression of crossflow-dominated transition at increasingly negative angles of incidence are consistent with trends identified in a computational assessment of the boundary-layer transition based on both linear stability analysis and Reynolds-averaged-Navier-Stokes-based transition models. The stability results obtained from the Langley Stability and Transition Analysis Code were used to recalibrate a dual N-factor criterion, which allowed for the prediction of transition fronts that showed excellent agreement with the experiment. The Reynolds-averaged-Navier-Stokes-based models, from the NASA OVERFLOW 2.3 solver, that accounted for the crossflow instability showed mixed results in comparison with the experiment, with the helicity-based Langtry-Menter model performing the best. The experimental data, particularly the cases involving strong influence from both Tollmien-Schlichting and crossflow instabilities, will be valuable for the continued validation and improvement of transition models.

boundary layer transition↗

NASA NTRS2023

Measurements and Computations of Natural Transition on the NASA Juncture-Flow Model with a Symmetric Wing

Experiments were performed in the 14- by 22-Foot Subsonic Tunnel to assess natural transition on the symmetric-airfoil wings of the NASA Juncture-Flow Model. Infrared thermography was used to visualize the heating on the upper surface of both wings of the full-span model, and on the fuselage, for angles of incidence ranging from -10° to 10° at a fixed Reynolds number of 2.4E6 based on the chord length at the wing planform break. The fuselage boundary layer transitioned well upstream of the wing-root leading edge for all conditions. Transition fronts were identified by a steep rise in the surface temperature, and the transition coordinates were transformed from an image-based to a body-fixed system. Additionally, the state of the boundary layer was estimated at pressure ports distributed on the wings through observation of the pressure coefficient as a function of the angle of incidence. For increasing angles of incidence, the transition front was observed to advance upstream, in a mostly spanwise-uniform fashion, from near midchord at α = 0°; however, for increasingly negative angles of incidence, the transition front first receded and then advanced in a nonuniform jagged manner that is typically observed with stationary crossflow. The transition wedges first appeared inboard of the wing break and then spread outboard to near the tip by α = -6°. The upstream shift in transition at positive angles of incidence and the outboard progression of crossflow-dominated transition at increasingly negative angles of incidence are consistent with trends identified in a computational assessment of the boundary-layer transition based on both linear stability analysis and Reynolds-averaged-Navier-Stokes-based transition models. The stability results obtained from the Langley Stability and Transition Analysis Code were used to recalibrate a dual N-factor criterion, which allowed for the prediction of transition fronts that showed excellent agreement with the experiment. The Reynolds-averaged-Navier-Stokes-based models, from the NASA OVERFLOW 2.3 solver, that accounted for the crossflow instability showed mixed results in comparison with the experiment, with the helicity-based Langtry-Menter model performing the best. The experimental data, particularly the cases involving strong influence from both Tollmien-Schlichting and crossflow instabilities, will be valuable for the continued validation and improvement of transition models.

boundary layer transition↗

DOE OSTI2023

Modified Eigen-Decomposition-based Interval Analysis (MEDIA) for Power System Dynamic State Estimation

The Bayesian approach has been used for the dynamic state estimation (DSE) of a power system. However, due to the complexity of noise resources, it is difficult to quantify measurement and process noise using probability density functions (PDFs). To overcome the difficulty, the authors of this paper propose a modified eigen-decomposition-based interval analysis (MEDIA) method, which employs bounds instead of PDFs to quantify the noise, and uses the eigen decomposition method to reduce the negative impact of the overestimation problem. Using the simulation data generated from IEEE 16-machine and IEEE 10-machine systems, it is shown that the proposed MEDIA method can estimate the hard boundaries of dynamic states in real time. Furthermore, comparison with the forward-backward propagation method and the extended set-membership filter also shows that the proposed MEDIA method performs better by providing narrower boundaries in the DSE.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2020

Physics-guided Deep Learning for Power System State Estimation

In the past decade, dramatic progress has been made in the field of machine learning. This paper explores the possibility of applying deep learning in power system state estimation. Traditionally, physics-based models are used including weighted least square (WLS) or weighted least absolute value (WLAV). These models typically consider a single snapshot of the system without capturing temporal correlations of system states. In this paper, a physics-guided deep learning (PGDL) method is proposed. Specifically, inspired by autoencoders, deep neural networks (DNNs) are used to learn the temporal correlations. The estimated system states from DNNs are then checked against physics laws by running through a set of power flow equations. Hence, the proposed PGDL is both data-driven and physics-guided. The accuracy and robustness of the proposed PGDL method are compared with traditional methods in standard IEEE cases. Simulations show promising results and the applicability is further discussed.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRS1997

Detection of "noisy" chaos in a time series

Time series from biological system often displays fluctuations in the measured variables. Much effort has been directed at determining whether this variability reflects deterministic chaos, or whether it is merely "noise". The output from most biological systems is probably the result of both the internal dynamics of the systems, and the input to the system from the surroundings. This implies that the system should be viewed as a mixed system with both stochastic and deterministic components. We present a method that appears to be useful in deciding whether determinism is present in a time series, and if this determinism has chaotic attributes. The method relies on fitting a nonlinear autoregressive model to the time series followed by an estimation of the characteristic exponents of the model over the observed probability distribution of states for the system. The method is tested by computer simulations, and applied to heart rate variability data.

Non-NASA Center↗

DOE OSTI2022

Estimating the impacts of natural gas power generation growth on solar electricity development: PJM's evolving resource mix and ramping capability

Abstract Expansion of distributed solar photovoltaic (PV) and natural gas‐fired generation capacity in the United States has put a renewed spotlight on methods and tools for power system planning and grid modernization. This article investigates the impact of increasing natural gas‐fired electricity generation assets on installed distributed solar PV systems in the Pennsylvania–New Jersey–Maryland (PJM) Interconnection in the United States over the period 2008–2018. We developed an empirical dynamic panel data model using the system‐generalized method of moments (system‐GMM) estimation approach. The model accounts for the impact of past and current technical, market and policy changes over time, forecasting errors, and business cycles by controlling for PJM jurisdictions‐level effects and year fixed effects. Using an instrumental variable to control for endogeneity, we concluded that natural gas does not crowd out renewables like solar PV in the PJM capacity market; however, we also found considerable heterogeneity. Such heterogeneity was displayed in the relationship between solar PV systems and electricity prices. More interestingly, we found no evidence suggesting any relationship between distributed solar PV development and nuclear, coal, hydro, or electricity consumption. In addition, considering policy effects of state renewable portfolio standards, net energy metering, differences in the PJM market structure, and other demand and cost‐related factors proved important in assessing their impacts on solar PV generation capacity, including energy storage as a non‐wire alternative policy technique. This article is categorized under: Photovoltaics > Economics and Policy Fossil Fuels > Climate and Environment Energy Systems Economics > Economics and Policy

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

NASA NTRS1997

Detection of chaotic determinism in time series from randomly forced maps

Time series from biological system often display fluctuations in the measured variables. Much effort has been directed at determining whether this variability reflects deterministic chaos, or whether it is merely "noise". Despite this effort, it has been difficult to establish the presence of chaos in time series from biological sytems. The output from a biological system is probably the result of both its internal dynamics, and the input to the system from the surroundings. This implies that the system should be viewed as a mixed system with both stochastic and deterministic components. We present a method that appears to be useful in deciding whether determinism is present in a time series, and if this determinism has chaotic attributes, i.e., a positive characteristic exponent that leads to sensitivity to initial conditions. The method relies on fitting a nonlinear autoregressive model to the time series followed by an estimation of the characteristic exponents of the model over the observed probability distribution of states for the system. The method is tested by computer simulations, and applied to heart rate variability data.

Non-NASA Center↗

DOE OSTI2023

GPS Spoofing Mitigation and Timing Risk Analysis in Networked Phasor Measurement Units via Stochastic Reachability

To address phasor measurement unit (PMU) vulnerability to spoofing, we propose the use of a set-valued state estimation technique known as stochastic reachability (SR)-based distributed Kalman filter (DKF) that computes secure global positioning system (GPS) timing across a network of receivers. Utilizing SR, we estimate not only GPS time but also its stochastic reachable set, which is parameterized by probabilistic zonotope (p-Zonotope). While requiring known measurement error bounds in only non-spoofed conditions, we designed a two-tiered approach. We first performed measurement-level spoofing mitigation via deviation of a measurement innovation from its expected p-Zonotope. We then performed state-level timing risk analysis via a determination of the intersection probability of the estimated p-Zonotope with an unsafe set that violates IEEE C37.118.1a-2014 standards. Finally, we validated our SR-DKF algorithm by subjecting it to a simulated receiver network to coordinate signal-level spoofing. We demonstrate improved timing accuracy and successful spoofing mitigation via the use of our SR-DKF algorithm. We also validated the robustness of the estimated timing risk as the number of receivers were varied.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2021

State Estimation-Based Distributed Energy Resource Optimization for Distribution Voltage Regulation in Telemetry-Sparse Environments Using a Real-Time Digital Twin

Real-time state estimation using a digital twin can overcome the lack of in-field measurements inside an electric feeder to optimize grid services provided by distributed energy resources (DERs). Optimal reactive power control of DERs can be used to mitigate distribution system voltage violations caused by increased penetrations of photovoltaic (PV) systems. In this work, a new technology called the Programmable Distribution Resource Open Management Optimization System (ProDROMOS) issued optimized DER reactive power setpoints based-on results from a particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm wrapped around OpenDSS time-series feeder simulations. This paper demonstrates the use of the ProDROMOS in a RT simulated environment using a power hardware-in-the-loop PV inverter and in a field demonstration, using a 678 kW PV system in Grafton (MA, USA). The primary contribution of the work is demonstrating a RT digital twin effectively provides state estimation pseudo-measurements that can be used to optimize DER operations for distribution voltage regulation.

Darbali-Zamora, Rachid↗

DOE OSTI2021

Distributed State Estimation Over Time-Varying Graphs: Exploiting the Age-of-Information

Here, we study the problem of designing a distributed observer for an LTI system over a time-varying communication graph. The limited existing work on this topic imposes various restrictions either on the observation model or on the sequence of communication graphs. In contrast, we propose a single-time-scale distributed observer that works under mild assumptions. Specifically, our communication model only requires strong-connectivity to be preserved over non-overlapping, contiguous intervals that are even allowed to grow unbounded over time. We show that under suitable conditions that bound the growth of such intervals, joint observability is sufficient to track the state of any discrete-time LTI system exponentially fast, at any desired rate. We also develop a variant of our algorithm that is provably robust to worst-case adversarial attacks, provided the sequence of graphs is sufficiently connected over time. The key to our approach is the notion of a "freshness-index" that keeps track of the age-of-information being diffused across the network. Such indices enable nodes to reject stale estimates of the state, and, in turn, contribute to stability of the error dynamics.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Performance Evaluation of an Advanced Distributed Energy Resource Management Algorithm

This paper presents performance evaluation of a new distributed energy resource management system (DERMS) algorithm via an advanced hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) platform. The HIL platform provides realistic testing in a laboratory environment, including the accurate modeling of sub-transmission and distribution networks, the DERMS software controller, and 84 power hardware solar photovoltaic (PV) inverters, standard communication protocols, and a capacitor bank controller. The DERMS algorithm is also called, Grid-Optimization of Solar (GO-Solar) platform which includes predictive state estimation (PSE) and online multiple objective optimization (OMOO) to dispatch the legacy devices and distributed energy resources (e.g., PV). The voltage regulation performance is evaluated under three scenarios, volt-var smart inverter (baseline), and DERMS control for 100% and 30% of PV. The results show that controlling 30% of PV systems with the GO-Solar platform may provide the best balance of control performance and implementation cost.

distributed energy resource management system (DER↗

DOE OSTI2023

Blockchain for Fault-Tolerant Grid Operations

Radial topology and vast geographic coverage make distribution systems prone to widespread power outages upon the failure of a single (or multiple) upstream component. Fault-handling algorithms depend heavily on correct estimations of the system’s state to effectively isolate the affected area and reduce the number of affected customers while maintaining operational safety. The work described here leverages the core features of distributed, consensus-based decision-making processes and the immutability of blockchain, and demonstrates their value in improving fault-tolerant grid operations. In this work, blockchain was used to create a trusted data-sharing platform that enables independent actors to reconstruct the system state; this enables distributed resources to make intelligent decisions with limited knowledge. Although the process requires data sharing, its algorithms have been designed to limit the amount of private information that is exchanged, which helps preserve business-sensitive data and maintain customer privacy. In addition, by reducing the information that must be shared, the communication requirements are also reduced; (however, an in-depth analysis of the communication requirements is beyond the scope of this project). The proposed use cases are intended to represent a foundational basis for third parties to develop functional solutions that can eventually be deployed in the field. To further provide guidance, the envisioned use cases have incorporated design requirements that consider the blockchain characteristics and a need to limit information from surrounding resources, which preserve the assumption and the possibility that such resources could belong to different entities. This report presents a detailed design of the three use cases with the tools needed to enable the analysis being tested. The implemented gross error detection method can detect mismatches when the error exceeds 3.8 times the sensor’s rated accuracy. Detection of the circuit breaker state successfully identified the correct states across all simulation tests. A distribution-system power-flow solution in the simulator OpenDSS generally possesses a convergency tolerance of 0.01% on the voltage magnitude. The evaluation of possible reconnection using voltage magnitude—preserving the data ownership—has a voltage magnitude difference smaller than 0.001% from the OpenDSS result. The results preserving data ownership have a difference within the expected power flow tolerance with full knowledge of the system, which surpasses expectations.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2020

A Hybrid Framework Combining Model-Based and Data-Driven Methods for Hierarchical Decentralized Robust Dynamic State Estimation

This paper combines model-based and data-driven methods to develop a hierarchical, decentralized, robust dynamic state estimator (DSE). A two-level hierarchy is proposed, where the lower level consists of robust, model-based, decentralized DSEs. The state estimates sent from the lower level are received at the upper level, where they are filtered by a robust data-driven DSE after a principled sparse selection. This selection allows us to shrink the dimension of the problem at the upper level and hence significantly speed up the computational time. The proposed hybrid framework does not depend on the centralized infrastructure of the control centers; thus it can be completely embedded into the wide-area measurement systems. This feature will ultimately facilitate the placement of hierarchical decentralized control schemes at the phasor data concentrator locations. Also, the network model is not necessary; thus, a topology processor is not required. Finally, there is no assumption on the dynamics of the electric loads. The proposed framework is tested on the 2,000-bus synthetic Texas system, and shown to be capable of reconstructing the dynamic states of the generators with high accuracy, and of forecasting in the advent of missing data.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Voltage Stability Constrained Moving Target Defense Against Net Load Redistribution Attacks

Moving target defense (MTD) using distributed flexible AC transmission system (D-FACTS) devices is a promising defense strategy to detect stealthy false data injection (FDI) attacks against the power system state estimation. However, all existing studies myopically perturb the reactance of D-FACTS lines without considering the system voltage stability. In this paper, we first illustrate voltage instability induced by MTDs in a three-bus system. To address this issue, we further propose a novel MTD framework that explicitly considers system voltage stability by using continuation power flow and voltage stability indices. We mathematically derive the sensitivity matrix of voltage stability index to line impedance, on which an optimization problem for maximizing voltage stability index is formulated. This framework is tested on the IEEE 14-bus and the IEEE 118-bus transmission systems, in which net load redistribution attacks are launched by sophisticated attackers. Here, the simulation results show the effectiveness of the proposed framework in circumventing the voltage instability while maintaining the detection effectiveness of MTD. We conduct case studies with and without the proposed framework under different MTD planning and operational methods. The impacts of the proposed two methods on attack detection effectiveness and system economic metrics are also revealed.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗