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At least 127 records · Page 7

Exploring the environmental drivers of vegetation seasonality changes in the northern extratropical latitudes: a quantitative analysis *

Abstract Vegetation seasonality in the northern extratropical latitudes (NEL) has changed dramatically, but our understanding of how it responds to climate change (e.g. temperature, soil moisture, shortwave radiation) and human activities (e.g. elevated CO 2 concentration) remains insufficient. In this study, we used two remote-sensing-based leaf area index and factorial simulations from the TRENDY models to attribute the changes in the integrated vegetation seasonality index ( S ), which captures both the concentration and magnitude of vegetation growth throughout the year, to climate, CO 2 , and land use and land cover change (LULCC). We found that from 2003 to 2020, the enhanced average S in the NEL (MODIS: 0.0022 yr −1 , p < 0.05; GLOBMAP: 0.0018 yr −1 , p < 0.05; TRENDY S3 [i.e. the scenario considering both time-varying climate, CO 2 , and LULCC]: 0.0011 ± 7.5174 × 10 −4 yr −1 , p < 0.05) was primarily determined by the elevated CO 2 concentration (5.3 × 10 −4 ± 3.8 × 10 −4 yr −1 , p < 0.05) and secondly controlled by the combined climate change (4.6 × 10 −4 ± 6.6 × 10 −4 yr −1 , p > 0.1). Geographically, negative trends in the vegetation growth concentration were dominated by climate change (31.4%), while both climate change (47.9%) and CO 2 (31.9%) contributed to the enhanced magnitude of vegetation growth. Furthermore, around 60% of the study areas showed that simulated major climatic drivers of S variability exhibited the same dominant factor as observed in either the MODIS or GLOBMAP data. Our research emphasizes the crucial connection between environmental factors and vegetation seasonality, providing valuable insights for policymakers and land managers in developing sustainable ecosystem management strategies amidst a changing climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Single Passive Gate-Driver for Series Connected Power Devices in DC Circuit Breaker Applications

This letter proposes a novel single passive gate driver solution based on passive devices to control series-connected power semiconductor devices for dc circuit breaker (DCCB) applications. The transient suppression devices (e.g., metal oxide varistors) are utilized to achieve natural voltage balancing among the series devices, while providing the discharge path of the gate capacitor of the upper devices. Here, the proposed method is very simple, cost effective and more compact compared with conventional voltage balancing method-based DCCBs. Besides, gate voltage oscillation during the voltage recovery process is mitigated by the addition of an extra gate capacitor. Simulation and experimental results are provided to verify the effectiveness of proposed method.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Diverging drivers of fungal diversity: seasonal effects shape aboveground communities, while geographical patterns govern belowground communities in rubber tree ecosystems

Understanding the spatiotemporal dynamics of microbial communities is essential for predicting their ecological roles and interactions with host plants. In a recent study, Wei and colleagues (Microbiol Spectr 13:e02097-24, 2024) investigated fungal diversity across multiple plant and soil compartments in rubber trees over two seasons and two geographically distinct regions in China. Their findings revealed that alpha diversity was primarily influenced by seasonal changes and physicochemical factors, while beta diversity exhibited a strong geographical pattern, shaped by leaf phosphorus and soil available potassium. These results highlight the role of environmental drivers in shaping within-community diversity, while other factors contribute to the differences between fungal communities across the soil–plant continuum. By distinguishing the effects of temporal and spatial factors, this study provides detailed insights into plant-associated microbiomes and emphasizes the need for further research on the functional implications of microbial diversity in the context of changing environmental and agricultural conditions.

fungal diversity↗

Commercial Building Sensors and Controls Systems - Barriers, Drivers, and Costs

Optimized building sensors and controls systems could lead to 29% annual energy savings in commercial buildings and are integral to the growth of grid-interactive efficient buildings. However, only 8% of small commercial buildings have installed sensors and controls systems-which is largely due to cost barriers. This publication seeks to increase the transparency of system costs and identify specific barriers and drivers for increased adoption. Qualitative interview data was collected from 20 interviews with industry and qualitative cost data was collected from invoices during the interviews. The greater understanding of costs and barriers associated with commercial building sensors and controls systems lays the groundwork for future steps in increasing system adoption, reducing energy consumption, and market transformation.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

EBR-II Driver Fuel Cladding Hull Analytical Data

Sharing EBR-II driver fuel cladding hull data with General Atomics under NDA No. 20NDA155. Data share is needed to advance discussions regarding process technologies to decontaminate separated cladding hulls

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

A Circular Economy for Lithium-Ion Batteries Used in Mobile and Stationary Energy Storage: Drivers, Barriers, Enablers, and Policy Considerations

The demand for large-format lithium-ion batteries (LIB) is expected to continue in the U.S. to meet renewable energy and decarbonization goals. Total installed large-scale stationary battery energy storage is expected to increase almost 10-fold from 2021 to 2025 and LIBs account for 97% of the expected market share. Similarly, LIBs deployed in electric vehicles is expected to increase, with passenger electric vehicles alone expected to reach 16 million units on U.S. roads by 2030 and 46 million by 2025. The expected demand for LIBs brings supply chain concerns and a growing need for a circular economy for LIB materials. Domestic reuse and recycling is one potential circular economy solution for LIB. This presentation identifies drivers, barriers, and enablers to a circular economy for LIBs, as well as, the current U.S. law and regulatory landscape for the reuse and recycling of LIB materials, and how certain policy frameworks impact reuse and end-of-life management decisions for LIB materials.

barriers↗

Intrinsic and environmental drivers of pairwise cohesion in wild Canis social groups

Animals within social groups respond to costs and benefits of sociality by adjusting the proportion of time they spend in close proximity to other individuals in the group (cohesion). Variation in cohesion between individuals, in turn, shapes important group-level processes such as subgroup formation and fission–fusion dynamics. Although critical to animal sociality, a comprehensive understanding of the factors influencing cohesion remains a gap in our knowledge of cooperative behavior in animals. We tracked 574 individuals from six species within the genus Canis in 15 countries on four continents with GPS telemetry to estimate the time that pairs of individuals within social groups spent in close proximity and test hypotheses regarding drivers of cohesion. Pairs of social canids (Canis spp.) varied widely in the proportion of time they spent together (5%–100%) during seasonal monitoring periods relative to both intrinsic characteristics and environmental conditions. The majority of our data came from three species of wolves (gray wolves, eastern wolves, and red wolves) and coyotes. For these species, cohesion within social groups was greatest between breeding pairs and varied seasonally as the nature of cooperative activities changed relative to annual life history patterns. Across species, wolves were more cohesive than coyotes. For wolves, pairs were less cohesive in larger groups, and when suitable, small prey was present reflecting the constraints of food resources and intragroup competition on social associations. Pair cohesion in wolves declined with increased anthropogenic modification of the landscape and greater climatic variability, underscoring challenges for conserving social top predators in a changing world. We show that pairwise cohesion in social groups varies strongly both within and across Canis species, as individuals respond to changing ecological context defined by resources, competition, and anthropogenic disturbance. Our work highlights that cohesion is a highly plastic component of animal sociality that holds significant promise for elucidating ecological and evolutionary mechanisms underlying cooperative behavior.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Drivers of Historical and Future Coastal Runoff Across the Arctic and Sub‐Arctic Subregions of Alaska, USA

This study investigates historical and future coastal runoff across the Arctic and sub-Arctic subregions of Alaska, USA, emphasising changes in terrestrial hydrology and their implications for coastal discharge. Using the physically based SnowModel-HydroFlow framework, historical (1991–2020) and future (2071–2100) coastal discharge climatologies were simulated, incorporating meteorological, topographic, and land cover inputs. Results reveal distinct seasonal and spatial patterns in temperature, precipitation, and snow dynamics across the Beaufort, Chukchi, Yukon, and Bristol subregions. Future projections suggest significant warming and shifts in hydrological regimes, such as increased annual precipitation and coastal discharge totals. Following a high emissions, business as usual pathway (SSP5-8.5), coastal discharge hydrographs in the Beaufort and Yukon subregions remain snow dominated with increases in discharge in nearly all months, while Chukchi and Bristol subregions shift from snow dominated to rain dominated. These changes are linked to rising temperatures, decreasing snow precipitation fractions, and altered freezing levels, with implications for water storage, timing, and availability. This research provides insights into the drivers and consequences of hydrological changes in a rapidly warming Arctic, supporting efforts to predict and mitigate the impacts on coastal and marine ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Drivers for the cracking of multilayer polyamide‐based backsheets in field photovoltaic modules: In‐depth degradation mapping analysis

Abstract There is a lack of understanding on the root cause of cracking of photovoltaic (PV) backsheets due to the challenge of multilayer characterization and the complicated failure modes at the submodule level. In this work, the in‐depth degradation mapping of field‐exposed polyamide‐based (PA‐based) PV module backsheets was studied, with the major focus on the identification of underlying drivers for the through cracking (in between the solar cells). PV modules were retrieved from five different locations, comprising a variety of climates, including humid subtropical, hot‐summer Mediterranean, tropical savanna climate, and hot arid. A suite of microscale cross‐sectional characterizations, including chemical changes, fluorescence intensity, and modulus as a function of distance from the air surface of the backsheet, was performed. Results showed more advanced signs of degradation of the inner layer than the outer layer in the cracking region. Increases in the modulus were identified as the major indicator for the cracking. Moreover, a rudimentary test by immersion in acetic acid, which forms during photodegradation of the ethylene‐vinyl acetate copolymer (EVA) encapsulant, showed the first‐time direct evidence that acetic acid can largely accelerate the chemical degradation and facilitate the cracking of PA inner layer. This study suggests that the field cracking of PA‐based backsheet can be attributed to the combined effects of chemical degradation and physical reorganization (chemi‐crystallization) under cyclic thermomechanical stresses. Therefore, it is important to consider effects of local microclimates and interlayer infection to understand the heterogeneous nature of backsheet failures.

Lyu, Yadong↗

Psychosocial drivers of land management behaviour: How threats, norms, and context influence deforestation intentions

Understanding how private landholders make deforestation decisions is of paramount importance for conservation. Behavioural frameworks from the social sciences have a lot to offer researchers and practitioners, yet these insights remain underutilised in describing what drives landholders' deforestation intentions under important political, social, and management contexts. Using survey data of private landholders in Queensland, Australia, we compare the ability of two popular behavioural models to predict future deforestation intentions, and propose a more integrated behavioural model of deforestation intentions. We found that the integrated model outperformed other models, revealing the importance of threat perceptions, attitudes, and social norms for predicting landholders' deforestation intentions. Social capital, policy uncertainty, and years of experience are important contextual moderators of these psychological factors. Here, we conclude with recommendations for promoting behaviour change in this deforestation hotspot and highlight how others can adopt similar approaches to illuminate more proximate drivers of environmental behaviours in other contexts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Drivers and ecological impacts of a wildfire outbreak in the southern Appalachian Mountains after decades of fire exclusion

During one of the warmest and driest droughts of the last century, the southern Appalachian Mountains experienced a regional outbreak of over a dozen large wildfires in late fall of 2016. We provide a synthesis of long-term forest changes leading up to the 2016 wildfires, examine the climatic setting and patterns of burn severity in relationship to topography, and discuss the ecological and management implications of these and future fires. During the pre- and post-European settlement periods, frequent low- and mixed-severity wildfires interacted with complex topographic gradients and maintained heterogenous landscapes dominated by several species of oak (Quercus spp.), pine (Pinus spp.), and the American chestnut (Castanea dentata). Land-use changes associated with European settlement, loss of the American chestnut, and 20th century fire exclusion resulted in large scale shifts towards mesic, fire-intolerant species (i.e. mesophication). Wildfire activity began increasing in the early 1980s, but most fires in the region are small (<1,000 ha). In Fall of 2016, deciduous tree leaf fall occurred concurrently with a period of anomalously dry and warm weather, creating ideal conditions for fire ignition and spread. Thousands of ignitions across the region strained suppression resources and eight fires grew to greater than 5,000 ha. The 2016 fires were larger and burned more area than in the previous three decades combined. In one unique landscape setting, the Chimney Tops 2 Fire, a synoptic wind event drove extreme fire behavior and burned large, high-severity patches resulting in devastating effects in the wildland urban interface. However, immediate post-fire burn severity mosaics for other fires were composed primarily of low- (73 %) and moderate-severity (21 %) fire effects. High-severity fire comprised only 6 % of the area burned, and occurred mostly on steep upper slopes and ridges on south-facing aspects, reflecting the importance of bottom-up topographic drivers in this region. Although the fires will likely enhance biodiversity by restoring fire-dependent species and creating early seral habitat, invasions of non-native plant species, delayed mortality of mature pines and oaks, and rapid re-sprouting of pyrophyllic shrubs pose significant management challenges. Although similar large fire outbreaks may become more common under future climatic conditions, they are unlikely to reverse the effects of mesophication and significantly alter forest dynamics at broad spatial scales. Furthermore, the 2016 fires exposed the vulnerability of the region to wildfire during acute fall drought and demonstrate the potential ecological effects of future wildfires in mixed pine-hardwood landscapes of the southern Appalachians.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evolution of storage monitoring – update in response to commercial and regulatory drivers

Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) is in transition from first-of-a kind projects and research-orientated pilots to commercially-motivated applications. Monitoring results from many newly developed and planned large scale commercial projects are limited; however, it is worthwhile to assess their evolution and consider new strategies as part of an effort to assess and document best practices. Commercial monitoring is targeted to activities that comply with regulatory drivers and de-risk investments. Commercial monitoring also supports accounting that storage has occurred and is tied to project financing. It deals with long time frames and large volumes injected into multiple wells and multiple projects in favorable areas. We see developing trends toward reproducible workflows that systematically reduce risks and clarify expectations for oversight and long-term surveillance. Monitoring techniques showing increasing trends include injection zone pressure as a history-matching and compliance tool. To reduce cost and environmental impact of time-lapse seismic data collection, deploying new approaches and tools, such as use of fibre and installed sources are increasingly applied. Concern over the risk of induced seismicity by regulatory bodies and the general public has increased, which has also resulted in increased monitoring. Some techniques used in the early research phases have been sidelined or used only in restricted applications. For example, geochemical analyses in the injection zone as well as the environment are now being deployed less than it was in research-oriented programs, except in the US where it is required by the permitting process. Expectations of frequent area-wide near surface monitoring have also decreased.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Holocene paleoclimate change in the western US: The importance of chronology in discerning patterns and drivers

We report sediment in lakes and meadows forms a powerful archive that can be used to reconstruct environmental change through time. Reconstructions of lake level, of chemical, biological, and hydrological conditions, and of surrounding vegetation provide detailed information about past climate conditions, both locally and regionally. Indeed, most of our current knowledge of centennial- to millennial-scale climate variability in the arid western United States, where information about past hydroclimate is particularly important, comes from such sediment-based reconstructions. The pressing need for robust, precise predictions of future conditions is a significant motivation for paleoclimate science, and current research questions frequently require Holocene reconstructions to be resolved at sub-centennial timescales. Increasingly, regional syntheses seek to identify synoptic-scale patterns similar to those defined from modern observations (seasonal, interannual, multi-decadal, etc.) or to compare with the output of climate model simulations. However, the age control on existing records, especially those more than about 20 years old, is often sufficient only for millennial-scale interpretation. Here we assess the age control for 84 published and unpublished records from lakes and meadows in the Great Basin, California, and desert southwest, and use Bayesian modeling to evaluate the 95% uncertainty ranges for the 42 best-dated records. In the Late Holocene, about half of the 42 records have <400-year mean uncertainty ranges; however, high-precision age control is especially critical for young records, used to develop an accurate understanding of a proxy’s response to known climate variations. In the Middle Holocene, records vary from 400 to >800-year mean uncertainty and records of the Early Holocene have 600- to >1400-year mean uncertainty ranges. We find that the largest control on modeled uncertainties is dating density, with at least 2 dates/kyr being optimal and suggest obtaining “range-finder” dates at the onset of a study to better predict the total number of dates needed for an adequate age model. Such a density avoids a commonly observed phenomenon of significant peaks in uncertainty arising in gaps between age control points. Analysis of the uncertainties associated with proxy shifts reveal that more than half are >400 years. Although such large uncertainties currently prevent sub-centennial interpretations in most cases, increased dating density, strategic use of limited funds (including budgeting for a 2 date/kyr minimum at the proposal stage), construction of age-depth models with Bayesian methods, and critical evaluation of chronological uncertainty will shed light on past climate variability at finer timescales, enhancing our understanding of global and regional drivers of western U.S. climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Ion Clusters Reveal the Sources, Impacts, and Drivers of Freshwater Salinization

Population growth, land use change, climate change, and natural resource extraction are driving the salinization of freshwater resources worldwide. Reversing these trends will require data-centric approaches that identify salt sources, environmental drivers, and ecosystem responses. In this study, we applied principal component analysis and hierarchical clustering to identify ion covariance patterns, or “ion clusters,” in Broad Run, an urban stream in the Mid-Atlantic United States. These clusters correspond to distinct hydrologic regimes and reveal specific salinization risks: (1) phosphorus pollution mobilized during summer storms (Cluster 1); (2) elevated concentrations of sulfate and bicarbonate during baseflow (Cluster 2), likely reflecting groundwater discharge; and (3) elevated specific conductance and sodium, chloride, and potassium ion concentrations during snowmelt and rain-on-snow events (Cluster 3), driven by deicer and anti-icer wash-off. These ion fingerprints offer a transferable framework for diagnosing salt sources, assessing ecological risk, and identifying management targets. Our findings underscore the need for next-generation stormwater infrastructure and smart growth policies to protect aquatic life in rapidly urbanizing watersheds.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Comparison of Kill Switch Toxins in Plant-Beneficial Pseudomonas fluorescens Reveals Drivers of Lethality, Stability, and Escape

Kill switches provide a biocontainment strategy in which unwanted growth of an engineered microorganism is prevented by expression of a toxin gene. A major challenge in kill switch engineering is balancing evolutionary stability with robust cell killing activity in application relevant host strains. Understanding host-specific containment dynamics and modes of failure helps to develop potent yet stable kill switches. To guide the design of robust kill switches in the agriculturally relevant strain Pseudomonas fluorescens SBW25, we present a comparison of lethality, stability, and genetic escape of eight different toxic effectors in the presence of their cognate inactivators (i.e., toxin–antitoxin modules, polymorphic exotoxin–immunity systems, restriction endonuclease–methyltransferase pair). We find that cell killing capacity and evolutionary stability are inversely correlated and dependent on the level of protection provided by the inactivator gene. Decreasing the proteolytic stability of the inactivator protein can increase cell killing capacity, but at the cost of long-term circuit stability. By comparing toxins within the same genetic context, we determine that modes of genetic escape increase with circuit complexity and are driven by toxin activity, the protective capacity of the inactivator, and the presence of mutation-prone sequences within the circuit. Here, the results of our study reveal that circuit complexity, toxin choice, inactivator stability, and DNA sequence design are powerful drivers of kill switch stability and valuable targets for optimization of biocontainment systems.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

A data-driven global soil heterotrophic respiration dataset and the drivers of its inter-annual variability

Soil heterotrophic respiration (SHR), one of the primary carbon fluxes from terrestrial ecosystems to the atmosphere, is important for carbon-climate feedbacks because of its sensitivity to available litter and soil carbon, climatic conditions, and nutrient availability. However, until recently limited SHR data were available, and most published global SHR estimates have either a short time span, coarse spatial resolution, or reply on overly-simple model formulations. To better understand and quantify the global distribution of SHR and its sensitivity to climate variability, we produced a new global SHR dataset using Random Forest algorithms, up-scaling 455 point data from the Global Soil Respiration Database (SRDB 4.0) with gridded fields of climatic, edaphic and productivity as explanatory variables. We estimated a global total SHR of 46.8 Pg C yr-1 over 1985-2013 (95% confidence interval: 38.6-56.3 Pg C yr-1), with a significant increasing trend of 0.03 Pg C yr-2 during this period. We found that the choice of soil moisture datasets contributes more to the difference among these data-driven SHR members rather than that of productivity, temperature and precipitation data sources. We also analyzed the influence of climatic variables on the inter-annual variability (IAV) of our SHR product. Water availability was the dominant driver of IAV at global scales, although the inferred sensitivity depends on the choice of the soil moisture gridded dataset. At the ecosystem scale, temperature strongly controls the IAV of SHR in tropical forests, while water availability dominates in extra-tropical forest and semi-arid regions. Our machine-learning gridded SHR dataset and outputs from process-based land surface models (TRENDYv6) show agreement for a strong association between water variability and SHR IAV at the global scale, but the two approaches lead to different temporal trend globally and different controlling variables for IAV at the ecosystem scale. Our study provides evidence for the pervasive and important role of water availability in driving SHR, indicating both a direct effect limiting decomposition rates and an indirect effect through the amount of fresh organic matter made available to SHR from productivity. In consideration of potential limitations and uncertainties remaining in our data-driven SHR datasets, we call for a more scientifically designed observation network for SHR, more observation data compilation, and increased use of deep learning methods making maximum use of observation data in hand. This will benefit process-based models, and improve our understanding of SHR response to future anomalous environmental conditions.

Yao, Yitong↗

Evidence of Alfvenic Poynting Flux as the Primary Driver of Auroral Motion During a Geomagnetic Substorm

Geomagnetic substorms are major energy transfer events where energy stored in the Earth's magnetotail is released into the ionosphere. Substorm phenomena, including auroral activities, earthward Poynting flux, magnetic field dipolarization, etc, have been extensively studied. However, the complex interplay among them is not fully understood. In a fortuitous event on June 7, 2013, the twin Van Allen Probes (separated by 0.4 h in local time) observed bursts of earthward Alfvenic Poynting flux in the vicinity of the plasma sheet boundary layer (PSBL). The Poynting flux bursts correlate with enhancements of auroral brightness around the footpoints of both spacecraft. This indicates a temporal and spatial correlation between the auroral brightening and Poynting flux bursts, and that the auroral motion is directly linked to the perpendicular expansion of the Alfven wave. These observations suggest that the Alfvenic Poynting flux is a primary driver for the auroral electron acceleration. Furthermore, around the time of auroral brightening, a dipolarization was seen to propagate more than 4 h in local time during a 20 min period. The azimuthal phase speed of this dipolarization (2 deg/min) is too small to explain the azimuthal motion of the aurora (13.6 deg/min), but the dipolarization could be related to the generation of the Alfvenic Poynting flux through phase mixing at strong density gradients like those in the PSBL.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Coherent Streamflow Variability in Monsoon Asia Over the Past Eight Centuries—Links to Oceanic Drivers

The Monsoon Asia region is home to ten of the world’s biggest rivers, supporting the lives of 1.7 billion people who rely on streamflow for water, energy, and food. Yet, a synoptic understanding of multi-centennial streamflow variability for this region is lacking. Here we produce the first large scale streamflow reconstruction over Monsoon Asia (63 stations in 16 countries), using a novel climate-informed dynamic algorithm that is skillful over 92% of the gauging stations. In this work, we show that streamflow in Monsoon Asia is spatially coherent, owing to common drivers from the Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic Oceans that exert their greatest influence over the Mekong and Chao Phraya basins. This work increases our understanding of streamflow variability over Monsoon Asia. We suggest that future water management in the region should be coordinated between basins, taking into account the states of the oceans.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗