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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Excipient screening by lyophilization provides insights into spray drying formulations for nanoparticle vaccines

Nanoparticles have shown great promise as delivery platforms in the development of tunable and safe vaccines. Nanolipoprotein particles (NLPs), also known as nanodiscs, are discoidal nanoparticles composed of a lipid bilayer stabilized at their periphery by apolipoproteins. Under the right conditions, the NLP self-assembly process is highly customizable in terms of lipids and apolipoprotein constituents, allowing for tunable physical and chemical characteristics. This flexibility allows a wide range of vaccine antigens and adjuvants to be incorporated onto the NLP platform for tailored vaccine design. The stability of NLPs during long term storage is a very important factor in developing a vaccine delivery platform suitable for widespread global use. When stored in a solution for extended periods of time, NLPs dissociate into their corresponding lipids and protein constituents, leading to particle degradation. Proper stabilization of NLPs can often be achieved by lyophilization (i.e. freeze-drying), a method widely used for various applications including pharmaceuticals. This process, however, can be damaging to particles without the presence of lyoprotectants or excipients that help maintain particle stability during lyophilization. Another method used to stabilize vaccines and pharmaceuticals is spray drying, a process that converts liquid formulations into dry powders through controlled heating and airflow. While spray drying is rapid, scalable, and cost-effective, lyophilization is typically a gentler process that better retains biomolecule structure and function. Both processes use excipients for particle stabilization, so lyophilization can be used as a surrogate to test stability of NLPs, to down-select formulations that may withstand the harsher conditions of spray drying. To screen different formulations, NLPs were synthesized and purified to homogeneity by size exclusion chromatography (SEC) and samples were prepared with a wide range of lyoprotectants and/or excipients. To assess the protective effects of excipients on NLPs upon spray drying, both pre- and post-lyophilized samples were analyzed by SEC. To assess the protective effects upon heating (encountered during the spray drying process), NLP samples were incubated at elevated temperatures prior to SEC analysis. The lyoprotectants and excipients evaluated in this study had different efficiencies in protecting NLPs during lyophilization and heating tests. Trehalose, for example, exhibits stabilization on NLPs both upon lyophilization and heating whereas leucine accelerated NLP dissociation. Although some lyoprotectants are effective by themselves, different combinations can decrease the stabilization of NLPs. Shelf-stable vaccines that do not require cold-chain storage are essential for global accessibility and our findings provide fundamental insight into how to advance NLP-based vaccines for these applications.

Serrano, Litzay J [Lawrence Livermore National Lab↗
DOE OSTI2025

Enhancing the performance of solvent-borne poly(ethyl methacrylate) coatings for high-power laser applications via low-temperature drying

Organic polymers are a versatile class of materials employed in a broad range of optical coating applications. However, their use as coatings in high-power laser applications, particularly in the UV spectral region, has been limited in scope due to their relatively low laser-induced damage thresholds (LIDTs), which decrease further with exposure to multiple pulses. This study explores the effect of post-deposition drying temperature and residual solvent on the LIDT of solvent-borne polymer coatings. In this work, poly(ethyl methacrylate) (PEMA) coatings were deposited by first spin coating solutions of PEMA (dissolved in 2,2,2-trichloroethanol (TCE)) onto fused silica substrates, then baking at temperatures of either 130°C (soft-bake) or 180°C (hard-bake). Analysis of the two coatings revealed that the soft-bake coating retained a significant amount of TCE within the polymer matrix, which functioned to plasticize the coating and reduce internal stress. The laser-induced damage resistance of the two coatings was evaluated using 351-nm, 1-ns laser pulses. The testing protocols included single-pulse (1-on-1), 1-pulse ramp (R-on-1), and a 1000-pulse ramp (1000R-on-1) test. The results showed that the plasticized, soft-bake coating exhibits a significantly increased LIDT, especially for multipulse irradiation conditions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Aerosol Influences on Cloud Water: Insights From ARM EPCAPE Observations With Explainable Machine Learning

This study employs an explainable machine learning (ML) framework (XGBoost-SHapley Additive exPlanations analysis) to investigate controlling factors on cloud liquid water path (LWP) using EPCAPE observations near the California coast. Aerosols are found to be the dominant factor explaining LWP variability, surpassing meteorological factors (MFs). By isolating aerosol effects from meteorological influences, the ML reveals a negative linear relationship between LWP and cloud droplet number concentration (Nd) in log space, likely driven by entrainment drying via evaporation-entrainment feedback. This aligns with the negative regime of the inverted-V relationship reported in previous studies, while no positive LWP responses are found due to a limited number of precipitating cases in EPCAPE. Furthermore, the sensitivity of LWP to Nd shows a non-linear dependence on MFs like moisture contrast between surface and free troposphere and lower-tropospheric stability. This occurs due to the interplay between the MFs' direct effects on entrainment drying and indirect effects through LWP adjustments.

EPCAPE observations↗
DOE OSTI2023

Sister Rod Destructive Examinations (FY23) Appendix F3: Uncertainty and Conservative Bias in the Cyclic Integrated Reversible-Bending Fatigue Test

The development and application of the Cyclic Integrated Reversible-Bending Fatigue Tester (CIRFT) has been documented over the past 10 years. The CIRFT system was developed in collaboration with the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) to address the concern that high-burnup fuel rod fatigue performance was degraded compared to cladding-only behavior. Fatigue data measured by CIRFT on high-burnup fuel rods were then used by the NRC to develop a fatigue response curve for pressurized water reactor fuel rods with Zircaloy-4 cladding in NUREG-2224. Subsequently, CIRFT has been used in the sister rod project to test whether reoriented hydrides associated with vacuum drying influenced the fatigue lifetime, to extend the fatigue testing database to include fuel rods with ZIRLO cladding, and to add to the experience on both Zircaloy-4 and M5 cladding. These data will be used as a reference for subsequent characterization of fuel rods removed from the high-burnup demonstration cask to better understand the effects of long-term dry storage, which can be thought of as a multiyear elevated temperature anneal. The objective of fatigue testing is to provide data that can be used to develop a best-estimate fatigue curve and a conservative fatigue design curve that accounts for uncertainty and can be compared with actual transportation conditions. The process for defining a design fatigue curve for commercial used fuel rods was developed by Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) in FY22. One issue noted in the fatigue evaluation was that the calculated combined uncertainty in the strain amplitude values determined from the measured data was large. It was proposed then to directly measure the uncertainty in the strain amplitude to either validate the calculated combined uncertainty or update the uncertainty based on the measurement data. Thus, the purpose of this appendix is to document the measured uncertainty in the strain amplitude data. In the process, it was determined that there has been a conservative bias in the calculated strain amplitude that is small enough to be within the measurement uncertainty. This observation is discussed herein, and a case is made to continue to include the conservative bias in the data.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Improvement of Coal Power Plant Dry Cooling Technology through Application of Cold Thermal Energy Storage

The U.S. power infrastructure is currently heavily reliant on water cooling. The power plants in the U.S. account for approximately 40% of freshwater withdrawals, with 90% of it used in condenser cooling. The most used cooling technology in coal-fired power plants is a once-through condenser; however, this cooling method requires high water withdrawal rates and results in thermal pollution of the water source. Wet WCTs offer an alternative to once-through condensers due to much lower water withdrawals. However, these systems suffer from water consumption through evaporation making them undesirable options in areas subject to droughts and in arid areas. The direct dry cooled condensers (ACCs) and dry cooling towers (DCT) account for 1.8%, hybrid cooling (ACC + WCT) accounts for 0.5%, while other cooling technologies represent the rest (0.7%). The ACC/DCTs represent an attractive alternative for power plants; however, this technology has not been widely adopted in the US (less than 2% of power plants) due to its negative impact on plant performance. As a rule of thumb, dry cooling results in performance penalty equivalent to approximately 2%-point efficiency loss compared to wet cooling, although the actual magnitude varies with ambient dry bulb temperature, DBT which may vary considerably during the day. As DBT increases, the plant power output decreases, reaching a minimum at the hottest period of the day, which usually coincides with the highest electricity demand for air condition load. Therefore, performance of power plants using DCT/ACC cooling technology is the lowest during the summer mid-day when ambient temperature is the highest. For example, the decrease of the inlet air temperature to the DCT/ACC by 2 Deg C could generate up to 5% additional power at peak demand. It is, therefore, important to improve dry cooling technology to maintain the viability of coal-fired power plants in a carbon constrained future. The method for reducing the cooling air temperature and keeping it constant would mitigate this problem significantly. Objectives of this project were to develop, design, evaluate, and demonstrate a cost-effective system for improving performance of a DCT or ACC for thermal (coal-fired) power plant applications using a low-cost heat storage materials, such as pervious concrete (PC) and phase change material (PCM). Thus, the study focused on development of the system(s) that could be used to alleviate the difficulties in operating DCT/ACC during the summer months by storing cold energy during the nighttime in inexpensive materials PC and PCM and using it during the hottest period(s) of the day. Since very large quantities of cold energy need to be stored to make an impact on performance of a large power plant, it is essential that the storage materials and associated cold energy storage design(s) are inexpensive and the system is simple to build, maintain and operate. To achieve the project objectives, a comprehensive approach, including material development and characterization, component and system modeling, and laboratory- and prototype-scale experiments, was employed including modeling of the system components and of the entire system, development (engineering) of the materials for the heat storage modules of the Cold Thermal Energy Storage System (CTESS) and determination of their properties, design, manufacturing and setup of the laboratory- and prototype-scale test facility and testing, design, manufacturing and setup of the prototype-scale test facility. A modular design of CTESS was employed, where representative modules were designed as the integrated direct contact heat exchanger and thermal energy storage (TES) system. CTESS modules were manufactured and tested. Two prototype-scale designs of the CTESS modules were developed and tested. The use of CTESS increases plant generation increases since it lowers air temperature entering ACC/DCT and keeps it constant during the hottest time of the day. For a PCM-based CTESS, the ambient air temperature is lowered close to the PCM phase change temperature. The duration of the cooling effect depends on the latent heat and mass of PCM in the CTESS. For this project, commercial grade CaCl2 hexahydrate (CaCl2·6H2O or CC6) PCM with phase change temperature of 25 Deg. C was used due to its low cost. For practical reasons, the CTESS was designed to maintain the cooling effect for four hours. The low phase change temperature associated with the commercial grade PCM used in CTESS results in considerably higher improvement in net generation compared to the laboratory (pure) grade. The resistance to heat transfer results in lower net generation compared to the ideal case where resistance to heat transfer is zero. The results demonstrate that CTESS is effective in improving the performance of a dry cooling system. However, its effectiveness depends on the relationship between the ambient air conditions and PCM phase change temperature. As is the case with the heat rejection system, for the best performance, the PCM used in CTESS would need to be matched to the ambient air conditions. The results obtained in this report for selected geographical locations are valid for CC6 and demonstrate that the level of performance to be achieved by the technology will be location-dependent, as is the case with the air cooled condensers. The methodology for engineering of PC-PCM-based heat storage medium is applicable to other PCMs that may need to be used for other ambient air conditions and geographical locations.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2022

Estimation of Sea Spray Aerosol Surface Area Over the Southern Ocean Using Scattering Measurements

This study focuses on methods to estimate dry marine aerosol surface area (SA) from bulk optical measurements. Aerosol SA is used in many models' ice nucleating particle (INP) parameterizations, as well as influencing particle light scattering, hygroscopic growth, and reactivity, but direct observations are scarce in the Southern Ocean (SO). Two campaigns jointly conducted in austral summer 2018 provided co-located measurements of aerosol SA from particle size distributions and lidar to evaluate SA estimation methods in this region. Mie theory calculations based on measured size distributions were used to test a proposed approximation for dry aerosol SA, which relies on estimating effective scattering efficiency (Q) as a function of Ångström exponent (å). For distributions with dry å < 1, Q = 2 was found to be a good approximation within ±50%, but for distributions with dry å > 1, an assumption of Q = 3 as in some prior studies underestimates dry aerosol SA by a factor of 2 or more. We propose a new relationship between dry å and Q, which can be used for –0.2 < å < 2, and suggest å = 0.8 as the cutoff between primary and secondary marine aerosol-dominated distributions. Application of a published methodology to retrieve dry marine aerosol SA from lidar extinction profiles overestimated aerosol SA by a factor of 3–5 during these campaigns. Using Microtops aerosol optical thickness measurements, we derive alternative lidar conversion parameters from our observations, applicable to marine aerosol over the SO.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Engineering Scale Drying of Aluminum-Clad Spent Nuclear Fuel: Experiment Report

Engineering-scale tests were performed to evaluate the relative effectiveness of forced gas and vacuum-drying processes on aluminum-clad spent nuclear fuel (ASNF) in preparation for extended dry storage. Drying models were developed to improve confidence in the likely range of conditions at the start of dry storage and to understand the factors most significant to each process. Testing was performed at the Holtec International Forced Helium Dehydration training facility in Camden, New Jersey, by students from the University of South Carolina in collaboration with Idaho National Laboratory. A full-size Type 1a basket, with a full-diameter vessel configuration (based on the Department of Energy standardized canister design), was used in combination with a 10 assembly surrogate ASNF arrangement to provide a proxy for geometry. A resistance heater incorporated in one assembly simulated the influence of 100 W decay heat. This instrumented chamber allowed testing of the removal of bulk water, physisorbed water, and chemisorbed water over a range of operating parameters with either drying process. Thick oxide films were grown on aluminum test plates to mimic the ASNF surface chemistry. These one-use test plates were housed within select assemblies during drying. Post-test analysis of these plates gave a measure of the moisture removed during each test, which was compared to a control. Instrumentation provided detailed thermal, humidity, and gas or pressure data relevant to each test. Model simulations generally compared favorably to instrument data for the tests. While both processes were able to remove bulk water, removal of chemisorbed water was shown to depend heavily on local temperature. To the disadvantage of vacuum drying, operations approaching or exceeding 220°C achieved consistently more dehydroxylation.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Effects of Inoculation with Lactic Acid Bacteria on the Preservation of Nannochloropsis gaditana Biomass in Wet Anaerobic Storage and Its Impact on Biomass Quality

Wet anaerobic storage of algal biomass is a promising preservation approach that can ensure a continuous supply of these feedstocks to biorefineries year-round. An effective solution to preservation must ensure minimal dry matter loss and a change in biochemical composition during storage. Therefore, the objective of this study is to investigate the preservation of Nannochloropsis gaditana biomass through wet anaerobic storage and its impact on biomass quality. Prior to storage, the algae sample is inoculated with two different strains of lactic acid bacteria and thereafter stored for 30 and 180 days. Each inoculant limited the dry matter loss to <10% (dry basis) after the storage duration. Final pH values (4.3–4.8) indicate that the biomass samples are properly ensiled, achieving the acidic conditions necessary for preservation. Compositional analysis of the biomass after storage shows a reduction in carbohydrate content, a relative increase in lipid content, and no significant change in the protein fraction. Glucose and galactose were the most prevalent sugar monomers. The low dry matter loss and minimal compositional change indicate that wet anaerobic storage is an effective means of preserving algal biomass and ensuring a constant supply of algal biomass feedstock to a biorefinery.

Oginni, Oluwatosin↗
DOE OSTI2022

Melting Behavior of Conventional and Hydrogen-Reduced DRI in a Simulated EAF Steel Bath

The melting behavior of carbon-free direct reduced iron (DRI) produced by hydrogen reduction has been investigated in a simulated electric arc furnace (EAF) melting environment. A testing apparatus was created to document the melting rates under various bath conditions in slag and steel. This investigation is specific to pellets melted in a steel bath. A model was developed to simulate the shell growth and melting rate of a non-reactive DRI pellet in molten steel. Data acquired from preliminary experiments are utilized to validate the model. This investigation sheds light on the potential effects of melting hydrogen-reduced DRI in the EAF.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Modeling Single and Two-Phase Transport in Thin Porous Layers Using a Composite Continuum-Pore Network Formulation

In this work, a composite continuum-pore network formulation is presented to model single and two-phase transport thin porous layers, such as gas diffusion layers in polymer electrolyte fuel cells (PEFCs) and active electrodes in redox flow batteries (RFBs). The formulation can be integrated into CFD codes, thus combining the ease of implementation of continuum-based modeling and the computational power of pore-network modeling. The composite model includes a control volume (CV) mesh at the layer scale, which embeds a cubic pore network [1,2]. The pore-network model is used to determine analytically local anisotropic effective transport properties (local effective diffusivity and permeability), which are mapped onto the CV mesh to simulate transport in the porous transport layer [3,4]. Good agreement is found between the predicted global effective transport properties (global effective diffusivity and permeability) under dry and wet conditions and previous experimental data reported in the literature for Toray TGP-H series carbon paper. Water saturation distributions are also compared with results obtained using X-ray computed tomography [4]. [1] P.A. García-Salaberri, I.V. Zenyuk, J.T. Gostick, A.Z. Weber, Modeling Gas Diffusion Layer in Polymer Electrolyte Fuel Cells Using a Continuum-Based Pore-Network Formulation, ECS Trans. 97 (2020) 615. [2] P.A. García-Salaberri, Modeling diffusion and convection in thin porous transport layers using a composite continuum-network model: Application to gas diffusion layers in polymer electrolyte fuel cells, Int J. Heat Mass Transf. (2020), submitted. [3] P.A. García-Salaberri, J.T. Gostick, G. Hwang, A.Z. Weber, M. Vera, Effective diffusivity in partially-saturated carbon-fiber gas diffusion layers: Effect of local saturation and application to macroscopic continuum models, J. Power Sources 296 (2015) 440–453. [4] P.A. García-Salaberri, G. Hwang, M. Vera, A.Z. Weber, J.T. Gostick, Effective diffusivity in partially-saturated carbon-fiber gas diffusion layers: Effect of through-plane saturation distribution, Int. J. Heat Mass Transf. 86 (2015) 319–333.

Garcia-Salaberri, Pablo↗
DOE OSTI2021

Physical and chemical effects of isopropanol exchange in cement-based materials

Drying cement-based materials is a necessary step to characterize the microstructure by microscopy, adsorption, or mercury intrusion. The isopropanol (IPA) exchange method is commonly used to replace the pore solution prior to drying, as it reduces the capillary pressure and thereby helps to preserve the microstructure of the hydrated cementitious materials. However, some physical and chemical effects of IPA on hydration products have been reported. These effects cannot be completely avoided, but can be reduced by shortening the exchange duration, in particular for effects on ettringite. This study carried out experiments with different exchange durations and IPA removal techniques to address research gaps in the literature. For 1-mm cubes of cement paste with IPA diffusion coefficient of 1 × 10{sup −11} m{sup 2}/s, the compared exchange durations are 5 min, 15 min (value from the literature), 40 min (when the mixture at the sample center achieves 95% of the drop in surface tension from water to IPA), 80 min (when the IPA/water mixture at the sample center reaches an azeotrope), 5 h (when over 99% IPA is replaced at the sample center), and 24 h (prolonged exchange). After IPA exchange, samples were either directly dried at 40 °C with flushing N{sub 2} or washed by diethyl ether prior to N{sub 2} drying. Even though the exchange duration of 40 and 80 min, in theory, can reduce the damage from capillary pressure, the nitrogen adsorption results do not show any advantage in preventing microstructural alteration. The 5-h exchange provided results similar to the 24-h exchange, but the latter induced slightly more serious chemical effects resulting from the longer contact of IPA with hydration products. In addition, the compared IPA removal techniques do not show significant differences. Therefore, this study suggests using small samples (~1 mm) for microstructural studies following IPA exchange for a period corresponding to the time when 99% of the water (mole fraction) at the sample center is replaced.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

High-Rate Long Cycle-Life Li-Air Battery Aided by Bifunctional InX3 (X = I and Br) Redox Mediators

Redox mediators (RMs) are solution-based additives that have been extensively used to reduce the charge potential and increase the energy efficiency of Li–oxygen (Li–O 2 ) batteries. However, in the presence of RMs, achieving a long cycle-life operation of Li–O 2 batteries at a high current rate is still a major challenge. In this study, we discover a novel synergy among InX 3 (X = I and Br) bifunctional RMs, molybdenum disulfide (MoS 2 ) nanoflakes as the air electrode, dimethyl sulfoxide/ionic liquid hybrid electrolyte, and LiTFSI as a salt to achieve long cycle-life operations of Li–O 2 batteries in a dry air environment at high charge–discharge rates. Our results indicate that batteries with InI3 operate up to 450 cycles with a current density of 0.5 A g –1 and 217 cycles with a current density of 1 A g –1 at a fixed capacity of 1 A h g –1 . Batteries with InBr 3 operate up to 600 cycles with a current density of 1 A g –1 . These batteries can also operate at a higher charge rate of 2 A g –1 up to 200 cycles (for InBr 3 ) and 160 cycles (for InI 3 ). Our experimental and computational results reveal that while X 3 – is the source of the redox mediator, LiX at the MoS 2 cathode, In 3+ reacts on the lithium anode side to form a protective layer on the surface, thus acting as an effective bifunctional RM in a dry air environment. This evidence for a simultaneous improvement in the current rates and cycle life of a battery in a dry air atmosphere opens a new direction for research for advanced energy storage systems.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Additive Manufacturing of Poly(phenylene Sulfide) Aerogels via Simultaneous Material Extrusion and Thermally Induced Phase Separation

Abstract Additive manufacturing (AM) of aerogels increases the achievable geometric complexity, and affords fabrication of hierarchically porous structures. In this work, a custom heated material extrusion (MEX) device prints aerogels of poly(phenylene sulfide) (PPS), an engineering thermoplastic, via in situ thermally induced phase separation (TIPS). First, pre‐prepared solid gel inks are dissolved at high temperatures in the heated extruder barrel to form a homogeneous polymer solution. Solutions are then extruded onto a room‐temperature substrate, where printed roads maintain their bead shape and rapidly solidify via TIPS, thus enabling layer‐wise MEX AM. Printed gels are converted to aerogels via postprocessing solvent exchange and freeze‐drying. This work explores the effect of ink composition on printed aerogel morphology and thermomechanical properties. Scanning electron microscopy micrographs reveal complex hierarchical microstructures that are compositionally dependent. Printed aerogels demonstrate tailorable porosities (50.0–74.8%) and densities (0.345–0.684 g cm −3 ), which align well with cast aerogel analogs. Differential scanning calorimetry thermograms indicate printed aerogels are highly crystalline (≈43%), suggesting that printing does not inhibit the solidification process occurring during TIPS (polymer crystallization). Uniaxial compression testing reveals that compositionally dependent microstructure governs aerogel mechanical behavior, with compressive moduli ranging from 33.0 to 106.5 MPa.

Chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2022

Preliminary Study on Machining of Additively Manufactured Ti-6Al-4V

We report additively manufactured metals differ from their conventionally produced counterparts due to the inherent material inhomogeneity, porosity, and thermal stress induced by the process. These differences make the machining of additively manufactured metals more difficult and cause premature tool failure or unexpected surface finish at certain conditions. This study takes the first step to investigate and identify the causes of these issues, particularly for Ti-6Al-4V. Printed and wrought samples, as well as heat treatment effect, are compared in a dry cutting condition at a cutting speed of 90 m/min in terms of cutting power, vibration, temperature, and produced surface finish. The results show a lower cutting power and more vibration for as-printed Ti samples, indicating a less ductile microstructure and inclusion of pores. Heat treatment can eliminate these phenomena. There is no significant difference found in the produced surface finish at the current cutting condition.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Global fire modelling and control attributions based on the ensemble machine learning and satellite observations

Contemporary fire dynamics is one of the most complex and least understood land surface phenomena. Global fire controls related to climate, vegetation, and anthropogenic activity are usually intertwined, and difficult to disentangle in a quantitative way. Here, we leveraged an ensemble of five machine learning (ML) models and multiple satellite-based observations to conduct global fire modeling for three fire metrics (burned area, fire number, and fire size), and quantified driving mechanisms underlying annual fire changes in a spatially resolved manner for the period 2003–2019. Ensemble learning is a meta-approach that combines multiple ML predictions to improve accuracy, robustness, and generalization performance. We found that the optimized ensemble ML well reproduced annual dynamics of global burned area (R 2 = 0.90, P < 0.001), total fire numbers (R 2 = 0.86, P < 0.001), and averaged fire size (R 2 = 0.70, P < 0.001). Additionally, the ensemble ML captured key spatial patterns of multi-year mean magnitudes, annual variabilities, anomalies, and trends for different fire metrics. Our ML-based fire attributions further highlighted the dominant role of enhanced anthropogenic activity in reducing global burned area (–1.9 Mha/yr, P < 0.01), followed by climate control (–1.3 Mha/yr, P < 0.01) and insignificant positive vegetation control (0.4 Mha/yr, P = 0.60). Spatially, climate dominated a much larger burned area (53.7%) than human (23.4%) or vegetation control (22.9%); however, the counteracting effects from regional wetting and drying trends weakened the net climate impacts on global burned area. The fire number and fire size exhibited similar spatial control patterns with burned area; globally, however, fire number tended to be more affected by climate while fire size more influenced by human activities. Overall, our study confirmed the feasibility and efficiency of ensemble ML in global fire modeling and subsequent control attributions, providing a better understanding of contemporary fire regimes and contributing to robust fire projections in a changing environment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Roles of External Forcing and Internal Variability in Precipitation Changes of a Sub-Region of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic During 1979–2019

Observations of the seasonal mean precipitation averaged over a sub-region of the U.S. mid-Atlantic show significant increases in summer but no changes in winter during 1979–2019. Clarifying the drivers of these observed changes is important for understanding and interpreting future projections of regional precipitation by climate models. Herein, this study examines the relative effects of external forcing and internal variability in the observed multi-decadal changes using the historical and RCP8.5/SSP585 simulations from 37 models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5), 35 models in CMIP6, as well as large ensemble simulations from 6 models, each including more than 20 members. During 1979–2019, enhanced warming over land relative to ocean due to external forcing induces low pressure anomalies over land that contribute to the wetting summer. While similar wetting also occurs during winter, such effect is offset by the drying associated with the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in recent decades. Internal variability produces large uncertainty in the multi-decadal precipitation changes simulated by climate models through changes in large-scale circulation associated with the NAO in winter and the North Atlantic Subtropical High in summer. These multi-decadal relationships between precipitation and large-scale circulation under internal variability also manifest on inter-annual timescale. These relationships highlight enhanced moisture transport from the Gulf of Mexico and North Atlantic in winter and near the mid-Atlantic coast in summer that modulates precipitation change in the study region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Optimization of a High Pressure Turbine Blade and Sector-Based Annular Rig Design for Supercritical CO2 Power Cycle Representative Testing

Abstract As part of the ongoing research into the design of hardware for zero emission cycles, a first-stage high-pressure turbine (HPT) blade is optimized for a 300 MWe supercritical CO2 (sCO2) power cycle using the surrogate-assisted genetic algorithm optimizer in Numeca FINE/Design three-dimensional with objectives of increasing efficiency and decreasing heat load to the blade. Supercritical CO2 property tables are constructed from NIST REFPROP data for the condensable gas simulation in FINE/Turbo. A detailed mesh sensitivity study is performed for a baseline design to identify the proper-grid refinement and efficiently allocate resources for the optimization. Seventy design variables are selected for the initial population generation. Self-organizing maps are then used to focus the design variables on the most important ones affecting the objective functions. The optimization results in approximately 3000 three-dimensional Reynolds Averaged Navier Stokes simulations of different blade shapes with increases in efficiency of up to 0.85% and decreases in heat load of 14%. Families of blade shapes are identified for experimental testing in an annular rig at the Purdue Experimental Turbine Aerothermal Laboratory. A design to adapt the annular cascade for testing optimized geometries is introduced, which features eccentric radius sectors allowing for scaled-up geometries of sCO2 optimized blade profiles to be tested at design cycle representative conditions at high Reynolds numbers in dry air. Analysis into the effects of Reynolds number, working fluid, and geometric relations are presented to prove the efficacy of the test method.

Engineering↗