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At least 127 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2017

Solar Energetic Particle Warnings from a Coronagraph

We report here the concept of using near-real time observations from a coronagraph to provide early warning of a fast coronal mass ejection (CME) and the possible onset of a solar energetic particle (SEP) event. The 1 January 2016, fast CME, and its associated SEP event are cited as an example. The CME was detected by the ground-based K-Cor coronagraph at Mauna Loa Solar Observatory and by the SOHO Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph. The near-real-time availability of the high-cadence K-Cor observations in the low corona leads to an obvious question: Why has no one attempted to use a coronagraph as an early warning device for SEP events? The answer is that the low image cadence and the long latency of existing spaceborne coronagraphs make them valid for archival studies but typically unsuitable for near-real-time forecasting. The January 2016 event provided favorable CME viewing geometry and demonstrated that the primary component of a prototype ground-based system for SEP warnings is available several hours on most days. We discuss how a conceptual CME-based warning system relates to other techniques, including an estimate of the relative SEP warning times, and how such a system might be realized.

St Cyr, O. C.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Should We Enhance the Observing Systems or Improve Coordination Among the Operating Agencies: What is Needed the Most for Security--A Philosophical Discussion

As an integrated observing strategy, the concept of sensorweb for Earth observations is appealing in many aspects. For instance, by increasing the spatial and temporal coverage of observations from space and other vantage points, one can eventually aid in increasing the accuracy of the atmospheric models which are precursor to hurricane track prediction, volcanic eruption forecast, and trajectory path of transcontinental transport of dust, harmful nuclear and chemical plumes. In reality, there is little analysis available in terms of benefits, costs and optimized set of sensors needed to make these necessary observations. This is a complex problem that must be carefully studied and balanced over many boundaries such as science, defense, early warning, security, and surveillance. Simplistically, the sensorweb concept from the technological point of view alone has a great appeal in the defense, early warning and security applications. In fact, it can be relatively less expensive in per unit cost as opposed to building and deploying it for the scientific use. However, overall observing approach should not be singled out and aligned somewhat orthogonally to serve a particular need. On the other hand, the sensorweb should be designed and deployed to serve multiple subject areas and customers simultaneously; and can behave as directed measuring systems for both science and operational entities. Sensorweb can be designed to act as expert systems, and/or also provide a dedicated integrated surveillance network. Today, there is no system in the world that is fully integrated in terms of reporting timely multiple hazards warnings, computing the loss of life and property damage estimates, and is also designed to cater to everyone's needs. It is not an easier problem to undertake and more so is not practically solvable. At this time due to some recent events in the world, the scientific community, social scientists, and operational agencies are more cognizant and getting together to address such colossal problems. Increasing our knowledge of the home planet, via amplified set of observations, is certainly a right step in a right direction. Furthermore, this is a pre-requisite in understanding multiple hazard phenomenas. This paper examines various sensorweb options and observing architectures that can be useful specifically in addressing some of these complex issues. The ultimate goal is to serve the society by providing potential natural hazards information to the decision makers in the most expeditious manner so they can prepare themselves to mitigate potential risks to human life, livestock and property.

Habib, Shahid↗
NASA NTRS2006

Applying Advanced and Existing Sensors in Dealing with Potential Natural Disasters

As an integrated observing strategy, the concept of sensorweb for Earth observations is appealing in many aspects. For instance, by increasing the spatial and temporal coverage of observations from space and other vantage points, one can eventually aid in increasing the accuracy of the atmospheric models which are precursor to hurricane track prediction, volcanic eruption forecast, and trajectory path of transcontinental transport of dust, harmful nuclear and chemical plumes. In reality, there is little analysis available in terms of benefits, costs and optimized set of sensors needed to make these necessary observations. This is a complex problem that must be carefully studied and balanced over many boundaries such as science, defense, early warning, security, and surveillance. Simplistically, the sensorweb concept from the technological point of view alone has a great appeal in the defense, early warning and security applications. In fact, it can be relatively less expensive in per unit cost as opposed to building and deploying it for the scientific use. However, overall observing approach should not be singled out and aligned somewhat orthogonally to serve a particular need. On the other hand, the sensorweb should be designed and deployed to serve multiple subject areas and customers simultaneously; and can behave as directed measuring systems for both science and operational entities. Sensorweb can be designed to act as expert systems, and/or also provide a dedicated integrated surveillance network. Today, there is no system in the world that is fully integrated in terms of reporting timely multiple hazards warnings, computing the loss of life and property damage estimates, and is also designed to cater to everyone s needs. It is not an easier problem to undertake and more so is not practically solvable. At this time due to some recent events in the world, the scientific community, social scientists, and operational agencies are more cognizant and getting together to address such colossal problems. Increasing our knowledge of the home planet, via amplified set of observations, is certainly a right step in a right direction. Furthermore, this is a prerequisite in understanding multiple hazard phenomena's. This paper examines various sensorweb options and observing architectures that can be useful specifically in addressing some of these complex issues. The ultimate goal is to serve the society by providing potential natural hazards information to the decision makers in the most expeditious manner so they can prepare themselves to mitigate potential risks to human life, livestock and property.

Habib, Shahid↗
NASA NTRS2002

HI-STAR. Health Improvements through Space Technologies and Resources: Executive Summary

Our mission is to develop and promote a global strategy to help combat malaria using space technology. Like the tiny yet powerful mosquito, HI-STAR (Health Improvements Through Space Technologies and Resources) is a small program that aspires to make a difference. Timely detection of malaria danger zones is essential to help health authorities and policy makers make decisions about how to manage limited resources for combating malaria. In 2001, the technical support network for prevention and control of malaria epidemics published a study. HI-STAR focuses on malaria because it is the most common and deadly of the vector-borne diseases. Malaria also shares many commonalities with other diseases, which means the global strategy developed here may also be applicable to other parasitic diseases. HI-STAR would like to contribute to the many malaria groups already making great strides in the fight against malaria. Some examples include: Roll Back Malaria, The Special Program for Research and Training in Tropical Diseases (TDR) and the Multilateral Initiative on Malaria (MIM). Other important groups that are among the first to include space technologies in their model include: The Center for Health Application of Aerospace Related Technologies (CHAART) and Mapping Malaria Risk in Africa (MARA). Malaria is a complex and multi-faceted disease. Combating it must therefore be equally versatile. HI-STAR incorporates an interdisciplinary, international, intercultural approach.called 'Malaria Early Warning Systems; Concepts, Indicators and Partners.' This study, funded by Roll Back Malaria, a World Health Organization initiative, offers a framework for a monitoring and early warning system. HI-STAR seeks to build on this proposal and enhance the space elements of the suggested framework. It is the work of fifty-three professionals and students from the International Space University's 2002 Summer Session Program held in California, USA.

Finarelli, Margaret G.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Enhancing Human Health Using Space Imagery: Summary of Research

The International Space University (ISU) 2002 Summer Session was conducted in Pomona, California, June 29-August 30, 2002. Ninety-nine professionals and students from thirty-one countries attended the Summer Session. More than half of these students participated in the Student Research Design Project entitled, "HI-STAR: Health Improvements through Space Technologies and Resources." ISU's interdisciplinary Student Research Design Projects are intended to have great educational value for the participants and, at the same time, to result in a product that will be useful to the field. The HI-STAR project was a success on both counts. The mission of the ISU students' effort on HI-STAR was to develop and promote a global strategy to help combat malaria using space technology. Like the tiny yet powerful mosquito, HI-STAR is a small program that aspires to make a difference. Timely detection of malaria danger zones is essential to help health authorities and policy makers make decisions about how to manage limited resources for combating malaria. In 2001, the technical support network for prevention and control of malaria epidemics published a study called "Malaria Early Warning Systems: Concepts, Indicators and Partners." This study, funded by Roll Back Malaria, a World Health Organization initiative, offered a framework for a monitoring and early warning system. HI-STAR seeks to build on this proposal and enhance the space elements of the suggested framework. Malaria disease dynamics and distributions are related to environmental variables. From space, environmental conditions that support the growth of mosquito populations can be monitored, Malaria-specific information can be gathered from satellite-borne remote sensing instruments and ground-based sensors. This information can be integrated via geographic information systems (GIS) into a Malaria Information System (MIS) that can provide assessment analyses and risk maps as output. HI-STAR defines and suggests the development of an active MIS as a low-cost tool to help organizations plan their efforts to fight malaria.

Finarelli, Margaret G.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Current NASA Earth Remote Sensing Observations

This slide presentation reviews current NASA Earth Remote Sensing observations in specific reference to improving public health information in view of pollen sensing. While pollen sampling has instrumentation, there are limitations, such as lack of stations, and reporting lag time. Therefore it is desirable use remote sensing to act as early warning system for public health reasons. The use of Juniper Pollen was chosen to test the possibility of using MODIS data and a dust transport model, Dust REgional Atmospheric Model (DREAM) to act as an early warning system.

Luvall, Jeffrey C.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Laser Prevention of Earth Impact Disasters

We now believe that while there are about 2000 earth orbit crossing rocks greater than 1 kilometer in diameter, there may be as many as 100,000 or more objects in the 100m size range. Can anything be done about this fundamental existence question facing us? The answer is a resounding yes! We have the technology to prevent collisions. By using an intelligent combination of Earth and space based sensors coupled with an infrastructure of high-energy laser stations and other secondary mitigation options, we can deflect inbound asteroids, meteoroids, and comets and prevent them from striking the Earth. This can be accomplished by irradiating the surface of an inbound rock with sufficiently intense pulses so that ablation occurs. This ablation acts as a small rocket incrementally changing the shape of the rock's orbit around the Sun. One-kilometer size rocks can be moved sufficiently in a month while smaller rocks may be moved in a shorter time span.We recommend that the World's space objectives be immediately reprioritized to start us moving quickly towards a multiple option defense capability. While lasers should be the primary approach, all mitigation options depend on robust early warning, detection, and tracking resources to find objects sufficiently prior to Earth orbit passage in time to allow mitigation. Infrastructure options should include ground, LEO, GEO, Lunar, and libration point laser and sensor stations for providing early warning, tracking, and deflection. Other options should include space interceptors that will carry both laser and nuclear ablators for close range work. Response options must be developed to deal with the consequences of an impact should we move too slowly.

Campbell, J.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Satellites as Sentinels for Health

Remotely-sensed data and observations are providing powerful new tools for addressing the human health aspects of sustainability by enabling improved understanding of the relationships and linkages between health-related environmental parameters and society as well as techniques for early warning of potential health problems. Remote sensing, geographic information systems, improved computational capabilities, and interdisciplinary research between the Earth and health science communities are being combined in rich collaborative efforts resulting in more rapid problem-solving, early warning, and prevention in global health issues. This paper provides a number of recent examples of applications of these technologies to health issues related to the following: infectious and vector-borne diseases; urban, regional and global air pollution; heat stress; UV radiation; water-borne disease; extreme weather; contaminant pathways (ocean, atmosphere, ice).

Maynard, Nancy G.↗
NASA NTRS2003

The Impact Imperative: A Space Infrastructure Enabling a Multi-Tiered Earth Defense

Impacting at hypervelocity, an asteroid struck the Earth approximately 65 million years ago in the Yucatan Peninsula a m . This triggered the extinction of almost 70% of the species of life on Earth including the dinosaurs. Other impacts prior to this one have caused even greater extinctions. Preventing collisions with the Earth by hypervelocity asteroids, meteoroids, and comets is the most important immediate space challenge facing human civilization. This is the Impact Imperative. We now believe that while there are about 2000 earth orbit crossing rocks greater than 1 kilometer in diameter, there may be as many as 200,000 or more objects in the 100 m size range. Can anything be done about this fundamental existence question facing our civilization? The answer is a resounding yes! By using an intelligent combination of Earth and space based sensors coupled with an infrastructure of high-energy laser stations and other secondary mitigation options, we can deflect inbound asteroids, meteoroids, and comets and prevent them &om striking the Earth. This can be accomplished by irradiating the surface of an inbound rock with sufficiently intense pulses so that ablation occurs. This ablation acts as a small rocket incrementally changing the shape of the rock's orbit around the Sun. One-kilometer size rocks can be moved sufficiently in about a month while smaller rocks may be moved in a shorter time span. We recommend that space objectives be immediately reprioritized to start us moving quickly towards an infrastructure that will support a multiple option defense capability. Planning and development for a lunar laser facility should be initiated immediately in parallel with other options. All mitigation options are greatly enhanced by robust early warning, detection, and tracking resources to find objects sufficiently prior to Earth orbit passage in time to allow significant intervention. Infrastructure options should include ground, LEO, GEO, Lunar, and libration point laser and sensor stations for providing early warning, tracking, and deflection. Other options should include space interceptors that will carry both laser and nuclear ablators for close range work. Response options must be developed to deal with the consequences of an impact should we move too slowly.

Campbell, Jonathan W.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

AEGIS: Autonomous Entity Global Intelligence System for Urban Air Mobility

This paper presents a global intelligence system that synthesizes aerial vehicles’ real-time physical data, planned actions, and historical behavior into engineered data frames representing the collective state of the airspace and suitable for efficient machine learning consumption. These data frames are then learnt by a deep neural net to build a prediction model that estimates the expected evolution path of the current state, thereby identifying potential future conflicts. This approach lends itself to an automated early warning system that the aerial vehicles can implement onboard with a suitable edge computing module more efficiently and effectively than non-AI methods, and eventually take preventive or corrective measures towards self/collaborative resolution of the issues. Contrary to a centralized early warning system where all vehicles’ task-space eventually converges to a global optimum state, the presented distributed global intelligence system brings in a balance between local utility functions of each vehicle and the global operating framework. This contributes to effectively handle the potential massive scaling in urban air mobility in the near future.

Artificial Intelligence↗
NASA NTRS2011

Future Opportunities and Challenges in Remote Sensing of Drought

The value of satellite remote sensing for drought monitoring was first realized more than two decades ago with the application of Normalized Difference Index (NDVI) data from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) for assessing the effect of drought on vegetation. Other indices such as the Vegetation Health Index (VHI) were also developed during this time period, and applied to AVHRR NDVI and brightness temperature data for routine global monitoring of drought conditions. These early efforts demonstrated the unique perspective that global imagers such as AVHRR could provide for operational drought monitoring through their near-daily, global observations of Earth's land surface. However, the advancement of satellite remote sensing of drought was limited by the relatively few spectral bands of operational global sensors such as AVHRR, along with a relatively short period of observational record. Remote sensing advancements are of paramount importance given the increasing demand for tools that can provide accurate, timely, and integrated information on drought conditions to facilitate proactive decision making (NIDIS, 2007). Satellite-based approaches are key to addressing significant gaps in the spatial and temporal coverage of current surface station instrument networks providing key moisture observations (e.g., rainfall, snow, soil moisture, ground water, and ET) over the United States and globally (NIDIS, 2007). Improved monitoring capabilities will be particularly important given increases in spatial extent, intensity, and duration of drought events observed in some regions of the world, as reported in the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report (IPCC, 2007). The risk of drought is anticipated to further increase in some regions in response to climatic changes in the hydrologic cycle related to evaporation, precipitation, air temperature, and snow cover (Burke et al., 2006; IPCC, 2007; USGCRP, 2009). Numerous national, regional, and global efforts such as the Famine and Early Warning System (FEWS), National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS), and Group on Earth Observations (GEO), as well as the establishment of regional drought centers (e.g., European Drought Observatory) and geospatial visualization and monitoring systems (e.g, NASA SERVIR) have been undertaken to improve drought monitoring and early warning systems throughout the world. The suite of innovative remote sensing tools that have recently emerged will be looked upon to fill important data and knowledge gaps (NIDIS, 2007; NRC, 2007) to address a wide range of drought-related issues including food security, water scarcity, and human health.

Wardlow, Brian D.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Satellites as Sentinels for Environment & Health

Satellites as Sentinels for Environment & Health Remotely-sensed data and observations are providing powerful new tools for addressing human and ecosystem health by enabling improved understanding of the relationships and linkages between health-related environmental parameters and society as well as techniques for early warning of potential health problems. NASA Office of Earth Science Applications Program has established a new initiative to utilize its data, expertise, and observations of the Earth for public health applications. In this initiative, lead by Goddard Space Flight Center, remote sensing, geographic information systems, improved computational capabilities, and interdisciplinary research between the Earth and health science communities are being combined in rich collaborative efforts resulting in more rapid problem-solving, early warning, and prevention in global health issues. This presentation provides a number of recent examples of applications of advanced remote sensing and other technologies to health.and security issues related to the following: infectious and vector-borne diseases; urban, regional and global air pollution; African and Asian airborne dust; heat stress; UV radiation; water-borne disease; extreme weather; contaminant pathways (ocean, atmosphere, ice)

Maynard, Nancy G.↗
NASA NTRS2022

Operational maize yield forecasts for Sub-Saharan Africa using Earth observation data and machine learning

Food insecurity continues to grow in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). In 2019, chronically malnourished people numbered nearly 240 million, or 20% of the population in SSA. Globally, numerous efforts have been made to anticipate potential droughts, crop conditions, and food shortages to foster improved food insecurity early warning and risk management. To support this goal, we develop an Earth Observation (EO) and machine-learning-based operational, subnational maize yield forecast system and evaluate its out-of-sample forecast skills during the growing seasons for Kenya, Somalia, Malawi, and Burkina Faso. In general, forecast skills improve substantially during the vegetative growth period (VP) and gradually during the reproductive development period (RP). Thus, mid-season assessment can provide effective early warning months before harvest. Skillful forecasts (Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) > 0.6 and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) < 20%) appear approximately two dekads after the VP; for example, they appear in May in Kenya and Somalia, January in Malawi, and July in Burkina Faso.

Donghoon Lee↗
DOE OSTI2024

Combined Pre-supernova Alert System with KamLAND and Super-Kamiokande

Preceding a core-collapse supernova (CCSN), various processes produce an increasing amount of neutrinos of all flavors characterized by mounting energies from the interior of massive stars. Among them, the electron antineutrinos are potentially detectable by terrestrial neutrino experiments such as KamLAND and Super-Kamiokande (SK) via inverse beta decay interactions. Once these pre-supernova (pre-SN) neutrinos are observed, an early warning of the upcoming CCSN can be provided. In light of this, KamLAND and SK, both located in the Kamioka mine in Japan, have been monitoring pre-SN neutrinos since 2015 and 2021, respectively. Recently, we performed a joint study between KamLAND and SK on pre-SN neutrino detection. A pre-SN alert system combining the KamLAND detector and the SK detector was developed and put into operation, which can provide a supernova alert to the astrophysics community. Fully leveraging the complementary properties of these two detectors, the combined alert is expected to resolve a pre-SN neutrino signal from a 15 M ⊙ star within 510 pc of the Earth at a significance level corresponding to a false alarm rate of no more than 1 per century. For a Betelgeuse-like model with optimistic parameters, it can provide early warnings up to 12 hr in advance.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2007

Using Satellite Remote Sensing Data in a Spatially Explicit Price Model

Famine early warning organizations use data from multiple disciplines to assess food insecurity of communities and regions in less-developed parts of the World. In this paper we integrate several indicators that are available to enhance the information for preparation for and responses to food security emergencies. The assessment uses a price model based on the relationship between the suitability of the growing season and market prices for coarse grain. The model is then used to create spatially continuous maps of millet prices. The model is applied to the dry central and northern areas of West Africa, using satellite-derived vegetation indices for the entire region. By coupling the model with vegetation data estimated for one to four months into the future, maps are created of a leading indicator of potential price movements. It is anticipated that these maps can be used to enable early warning of famine and for planning appropriate responses.

Brown, Molly E.↗
NASA NTRS2011

New Local, National and Regional Cereal Price Indices for Improved Identification of Food Insecurity

Large price increases over a short time period can be indicative of a deteriorating food security situation. Food price indices developed by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) are used to monitor food price trends at a global level, but largely reflect supply and demand conditions in export markets. However, reporting by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID)'s Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) indicates that staple cereal prices in many markets of the developing world, especially in surplus-producing areas, often have a delayed and variable response to international export market price trends. Here we present new price indices compiled for improved food security monitoring and assessment, and specifically for monitoring conditions of food access across diverse food insecure regions. We found that cereal price indices constructed using market prices within a food insecure region showed significant differences from the international cereals price, and had a variable price dispersion across markets within each marketshed. Using satellite-derived remote sensing information that estimates local production and the FAO Cereals Index as predictors, we were able to forecast movements of the local or national price indices in the remote, arid and semi-arid countries of the 38 countries examined. This work supports the need for improved decision-making about targeted aid and humanitarian relief, by providing earlier early warning of food security crises.

Brown, Molly E.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Drought Prediction for Socio-Cultural Stability Project

The primary objective of this project is to answer the question: "Can existing, linked infrastructures be used to predict the onset of drought months in advance?" Based on our work, the answer to this question is "yes" with the qualifiers that skill depends on both lead-time and location, and especially with the associated teleconnections (e.g., ENSO, Indian Ocean Dipole) active in a given region season. As part of this work, we successfully developed a prototype drought early warning system based on existing/mature NASA Earth science components including the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System Version 5 (GEOS-5) forecasting model, the Land Information System (LIS) land data assimilation software framework, the Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM), remotely sensed terrestrial water storage from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and remotely sensed soil moisture products from the Aqua/Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer - EOS (AMSR-E). We focused on a single drought year - 2011 - during which major agricultural droughts occurred with devastating impacts in the Texas-Mexico region of North America (TEXMEX) and the Horn of Africa (HOA). Our results demonstrate that GEOS-5 precipitation forecasts show skill globally at 1-month lead, and can show up to 3 months skill regionally in the TEXMEX and HOA areas. Our results also demonstrate that the CLSM soil moisture percentiles are a goof indicator of drought, as compared to the North American Drought Monitor of TEXMEX and a combination of Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) data and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS)'s Normalizing Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) anomalies over HOA. The data assimilation experiments produced mixed results. GRACE terrestrial water storage (TWS) assimilation was found to significantly improve soil moisture and evapotransportation, as well as drought monitoring via soil moisture percentiles, while AMSR-E soil moisture assimilation produced marginal benefits. We carried out 1-3 month lead-time forecast experiments using GEOS-5 forecasts as input to LIS/CLSM. Based on these forecast experiments, we find that the expected skill in GEOS-5 forecasts from 1-3 months is present in the soil moisture percentiles used to indicate drought. In the case of the HOA drought, the failure of the long rains in April appears in the February 1, March 1 and April 1 initialized forecasts, suggesting that for this case, drought forecasting would have provided some advance warning about the drought conditions observed in 2011. Three key recommendations for follow-up work include: (1) carry out a comprehensive analysis of droughts observed over the entire period of record for GEOS-5 forecasts; (2) continue to analyze the GEOS-5 forecasts in HOA stratifying by anomalies in long and short rains; and (3) continue to include GRACE TWS, Soil Moisture/Ocean Salinity (SMOS) and the upcoming NASA Soil Moisture Active/Passive (SMAP) soil moisture products in a routine activity building on this prototype to further quantify the benefits for drought assessment and prediction.

Peters-Lidard, Christa↗