Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “effort estimation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 127 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1991

A microcomputer program for estimating low altitude wind and turbulence fields

Past efforts to develop methods for objective wind analysis and to provide turbulence estimates to pilots are reviewed. The present approach involves a wind module and a turbulence module. The wind module extends the critical dividing streamline concept and past developments in mass-conserving wind interpolation schemes. The turbulence module is based on recent efforts to develop practical atmospheric turbulence parameterization schemes based on lapse rate, wind shear, surface heating, and surface roughness. The lapse rate and wind shear are readily obtained from the wind module. Surface roughness and heating come from land use information and net radiation estimates derived from cloud cover, terrain slope, local time, and latitude. This system is argued to have considerable potential for providing useful online information for many kinds of aircraft operations.

Ludwig, F. L.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Fast uncertainty estimates in deep learning interatomic potentials

Deep learning has emerged as a promising paradigm to give access to highly accurate predictions of molecular and material properties. A common short-coming shared by current approaches, however, is that neural networks only give point estimates of their predictions and do not come with predictive uncertainties associated with these estimates. Existing uncertainty quantification efforts have primarily leveraged the standard deviation of predictions across an ensemble of independently trained neural networks. This incurs a large computational overhead in both training and prediction, resulting in order-of-magnitude more expensive predictions. Here, we propose a method to estimate the predictive uncertainty based on a single neural network without the need for an ensemble. This allows us to obtain uncertainty estimates with virtually no additional computational overhead over standard training and inference. We demonstrate that the quality of the uncertainty estimates matches those obtained from deep ensembles. We further examine the uncertainty estimates of our methods and deep ensembles across the configuration space of our test system and compare the uncertainties to the potential energy surface. Finally, we study the efficacy of the method in an active learning setting and find the results to match an ensemble-based strategy at order-of-magnitude reduced computational cost.

Chemistry↗
NASA NTRS2002

Formation Flying Satellite Control Around the L2 Sun-Earth Libration Point

A growing interest in formation flying satellites demands development and analysis of control and estimation algorithms for station-keeping and formation maneuvering. This paper discusses the development of a discrete linear-quadratic-regulator control algorithm for formations in the vicinity of the L2 sun-earth libration point. The development of an appropriate Kalman filter is included as well. Simulations are created for the analysis of the station-keeping and various formation maneuvers of the Stellar Imager mission. The simulations provide tracking error, estimation error, and control effort results. From the control effort, useful design parameters such as delta V and propellant mass are determined. For formation maneuvering, the formation spacecraft track to within 4 meters of their desired position and within 1.5 millimeters per second of their desired zero velocity. The filter, with few exceptions, keeps the estimation errors within their three-sigma values. Without noise, the controller performs extremely well, with the formation spacecraft tracking to within several micrometers. Each spacecraft uses around 1 to 2 grams of propellant per maneuver, depending on the circumstances.

Hamilton, Nicholas H.↗
NASA NTRS1983

An approach to software baseline generation

A current Data & Analysis Center for Software (DACS) effort to develop software baselines is summarized. This baseline effort is an on-going activity; that is, the baselines are meant to be updated as new software data becomes available. The information presented and processed was organized to make periodic updating a much simpler task. A baseline, for this effort, consists of an estimation of any characteristic of a software project that is helpful to a developer, manager, or monitor to manage, control, or influence a software product. The objective of these baselines is to provide a tool for aiding software developers in their daily work. Baselines were synthesized from an empirical dataset provided by the Software Engineering Laboratory at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (NASA/SEL). These data were selected because the data collection effort developed at the NASA/SEL is the most thorough and complete available.

Romeu, J. L.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Designing Control System Application Software for Change

The Unified Modeling Language (UML) was used to design the Environmental Systems Test Stand (ESTS) control system software. The UML was chosen for its ability to facilitate a clear dialog between software designer and customer, from which requirements are discovered and documented in a manner which transposes directly to program objects. Applying the UML to control system software design has resulted in a baseline set of documents from which change and effort of that change can be accurately measured. As the Environmental Systems Test Stand evolves, accurate estimates of the time and effort required to change the control system software will be made. Accurate quantification of the cost of software change can be before implementation, improving schedule and budget accuracy.

Boulanger, Richard↗
NASA NTRS2021

Constraining the Neutron Star Mass–Radius Relation and Dense Matter Equation of State with NICER. III. Model Description and Verification of Parameter Estimation Codes

We describe the X-ray pulse profile models we use and how we use them to analyze Neutron Star Interior Composition Explorer(NICER)observations of rotation-powered millisecond pulsars to obtain information about the mass–radius relation of neutron stars and the equation of state of the dense matter in their cores. Here we detail our modeling of the observed profile of PSR J0030+0451 that we analyzed in Miller et al. and Riley et al. and describe a cross-verification of computations of the pulse profiles of a star with R/M 3, in case stars this compact need to be considered in future analyses. We also present our early cross-verification efforts of the parameter estimation procedures used by Miller et al. and Riley et al. by analyzing two distinct synthetic data sets. Both codes yielded credible regions in the mass–radius plane that are statistically consistent with one another, and both gave posterior distributions for model parameter values consistent with the values that were used to generate the data. We also summarize the additional tests of the parameter estimation procedure of Miller et al. that used synthetic pulse profiles and the NICER pulse profile of PSR J0030+0451. We then illustrate how the precision of mass and radius estimates depends on the pulsar’s spin rate and the size of its hot spot by analyzing four different synthetic pulse profiles. Finally, we assess possible sources of systematic error in the estimates made using this technique, some of which may warrant further investigation.

Slavko Bogdanov↗
NASA NTRS1985

Crop Characteristics Research: Growth and Reflectance Analysis

Much of the early research in remote sensing follows along developing spectral signatures of cover types. It was found, however, that a signature from an unknown cover class could not always be matched to a catalog value of known cover class. This approach was abandoned and supervised classification schemes followed. These were not efficient and required extensive training. It was obvious that data acquired at a single time could not separate cover types. A large portion of the proposed research has concentrated on modeling the temporal behavior of agricultural crops and on removing the need for any training data in remote sensing surveys; the key to which is the solution of the so-called 'signature extension' problem. A clear need to develop spectral estimaters of crop ontogenic stages and yield has existed even though various correlations have been developed. Considerable effort in developing techniques to estimate these variables was devoted to this work. The need to accurately evaluate existing canopy reflectance model(s), improve these models, use them to understand the crop signatures, and estimate leaf area index was the third objective of the proposed work. A synopsis of this research effort is discussed.

Badhwar, G. D.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Reducing the cost of energy estimation in the variational quantum eigensolver algorithm with robust amplitude estimation

Quantum chemistry and materials is one of the most promising applications of quantum computing. Yet much work is still to be done in matching industry-relevant problems in these areas with quantum algorithms that can solve them. Most previous efforts have carried out resource estimations for quantum algorithms run on large-scale fault-tolerant architectures, which include the quantum phase estimation algorithm. In contrast, few have assessed the performance of near-term quantum algorithms, which include the variational quantum eigensolver (VQE) algorithm. Recently, a large-scale benchmark study [Gonthier et al. 2020] found evidence that the performance of the variational quantum eigensolver for a set of industry-relevant molecules may be too inefficient to be of practical use. This motivates the need for developing and assessing methods that improve the efficiency of VQE. In this work, we predict the runtime of the energy estimation subroutine of VQE when using robust amplitude estimation (RAE) to estimate Pauli expectation values. Under conservative assumptions, our resource estimation predicts that RAE can reduce the runtime over the standard estimation method in VQE by one to two orders of magnitude. Despite this improvement, we find that the runtimes are still too large to be practical. These findings motivate two complementary efforts towards quantum advantage: 1) the investigation of more efficient near-term methods for ground state energy estimation and 2) the development of problem instances that are of industrial value and classically challenging, but better suited to quantum computation.

Johnson, Peter D.↗
DOE OSTI2022

RESULTS OF A VIRTUAL ROUND ROBIN STUDY TO ESTIMATE PROBABILITY OF DETECTION FOR DISSIMILAR METAL WELDS

This paper presents efforts to overcome challenges with empirical probability of detection (POD) estimations in the nuclear power industry through the utilization of a novel virtual flaw method. A virtual round robin (VRR) study was conducted under the Program for Investigation Of NDE by International Collaboration (PIONIC), organized by the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) utilizing data generated by the virtual flaw method. Analysis of results from the VRR was performed by teams from Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), and Aalto University. Empirically derived POD estimations are presented, and challenges associated with obtaining these estimations are discussed. The virtual flaw method is introduced and some details of its implementation for the VRR activity are described. Results from POD analysis of the VRR data by PNNL, EPRI, and Aalto University are presented and a discussion regarding differences in analysis results is provided. Finally, potential future efforts to improve the application of the virtual flaw method and its estimation of POD are discussed.

Probability of detection, Dissimilar Metal Weld, P↗
NASA NTRS2019

InSight's Reconstructed Aerothermal Environments

The InSight Mars Lander successfully landed on the surface on November 26, 2018. This poster will describe the methodologies and margins used in developing the aerothermal environments for design of the thermal protection systems (TPS), as well as a prediction of as-flown environments based on the best estimated trajectory. The InSight mission spacecraft design approach included the effects of radiant heat flux to the aft body from the wake for the first time on a US Mars Mission, due to overwhelming evidence in ground testing for the European ExoMars mission (2009/2010) [1] and 2010 tests in the Electric Arc Shock Tube (EAST) facility [2]. The radiant energy on an aftbody was also recently confirmed via measurement on the Schiaparelli mission [3]. In addition, the InSight mission expected to enter the Mars atmosphere during the dust storm season, so the heatshield TPS was designed to accommodate the extra recession due to the potential dust impact. This poster will compare the predicted aerothermal environments using the reconstructed best estimated trajectory to the design environments. Design Approach: The InSight spacecraft was planned to be a near-design-to-print copy of the Phoenix spacecraft. The determination of the heatshield TPS requirements was approached as if it was a new design due to the new requirement of flying through a dust storm. The baseline for aftbody was build-to-print, and all analyses focused on ensuring adequate margin. This proved to be a challenge because the Phoenix aftbody was designed to withstand only convective heating and the InSight aftbody was evaluated for both convective and radiative heating. Aerothermal environments were predicted using the Langley Aerothermodynamic Upwind Relaxation Algorithm (LAURA) and the Data Parallel Line Relaxation (DPLR) CFD codes, and the Nonequilibrium Radiative Transport and Spectra Program (NEQAIR) utilizing bounding design trajectories derived from Monte Carlo analyses from the Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories II (POST2). In all cases, super-catalytic flowfields were assigned to ensure the most conservative heating results. Two trajectories were evaluated: 1) the trajectory with the maximum heat flux was utilized to determine the flowfield characteristics and the viability of the selection of TPS materials; and 2) the trajectory with the maximum heat load was used to determine the required thicknesses of the TPS materials. Evaluation of the MEDLI data [4], along with ground test data [5] led to the determination of whether or not the flow would transition from laminar to turbulent on the heatshield, which also determined the TPS sizing location for the heatshield. Aerothermal margins were added for the convective heating and developed for the radiative heating. TPS material sizing was determined with the Reaction Kinetic Ablation Program (REKAP) and the Fully Implicit Ablation and Thermal Analysis program (FIAT) using a three-branched approach to account for aerothermal, material response, and material properties uncertainties. In addition, the heatshield recession was augmented by an analysis of the effect of entry through a potential dusty atmosphere using a methodology developed in References [6] and [7]. These analyses resulted in an increase to the Phoenix heatshield TPS thickness. Reconstruction Efforts: Once the best estimated trajectory is reconstructed by the team, the LAURA/HARA (High-Temperature Aerothermo-dynamic Radiation model) and DPLR/NEQAIR code pairs will be used to predict the as-flown aerothermal conditions. In these runs, fully-catalytic flowfields will be assigned because it is a more physically accurate description of the chemistry in the flow. Once again, determination of the onset of turbulence on the heatshield will be evaluated. The as-flown aerothermal environments will then be compared to the design environments.

Beck, R. A.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Dynamics and Control of a Disordered System in Space

In this paper, we present some ideas regarding the modeling, dynamics and control aspects of granular spacecraft. Granular spacecraft are complex multibody systems composed of a spatially disordered distribution of a large number of elements, for instance a cloud of N grains in orbit, with N greater than 10(exp 3). These grains can be large (Cubesat-size) or small (mm-size), and can be active, i.e., a fully equipped vehicle capable sensing their own position and attitude, and enabled with propulsion means, or entirely passive. The ultimate objective would be to study the behavior of the single grains and of large ensembles of grains in orbit and to identify ways to guide and control the shape of a cloud composed of these grains so that it can perform a useful function in space, for instance, as an element of an optical imaging system for astrophysical applications. This concept, in which the aperture does not need to be continuous and monolithic, would increase the aperture size several times compared to large NASA observatories such as ATLAST, allowing for a true Terrestrial Planet Imager that would be able to resolve exo-planet details and do meaningful spectroscopy on distant world. In the paper, we address the modeling and autonomous operation of a distributed assembly (the cloud) of large numbers of highly miniaturized space-borne elements (the grains). A multi-scale, multi-physics model is proposed of the dynamics of the cloud in orbit, as well as a control law for cloud shape maintenance, and preliminary simulation studies yield an estimate of the computational effort, indicating a scale factor of approximately N(exp 1.4) as a function of the number of grains. A granular spacecraft can be defined as a collection of a large number of space-borne elements (in the 1000s) designed and controlled such that a desirable collective behavior emerges, either from the interactions among neighboring grains, and/or between the grains and the environment. In this paper, each grain is considered to be a highly miniaturized spacecraft which has limited size and mass, hence it has limited actuation, limited propulsive capability, limited power, limited sensing, limited communication, limited computational resources, limited range of motion, limited lifetime, and may be expendable. The modeling and dynamics of clouds of vehicles is more challenging than with conventional vehicles because we are faced with a probabilistic vehicle composed of a large number of physically disconnected vehicles. First, different scales of motion occur simultaneously in a cloud: translations and rotations of the cloud as a whole (macro-dynamics), relative rotation and translation of one cloud member with respect to another (meso-dynamics), and individual cloud member dynamics (micro-dynamics). Second, the control design needs to be tolerant of the system complexity, of the system architecture (centralized vs. decentralized large scale system control) as well as robust to un-modeled dynamics and noise sources. Figure 1, top left, shows the kinematic parameters of a 1000 element cloud in orbit. The motion of the system is described with respect to a local vertical-local horizontal (LV-LH) orbiting reference frame (x,y,z)=F(sub ORF) of origin O(sub ORF) which rotates with mean motion omega and orbital semi-major axis R(sub 0). The orbital geometry at the initial time is defined in terms of its six orbital elements, and the orbital dynamics equation for point O(sub ORF) is propagated forward in time under the influence of the gravitational field of the primary and other external perturbations, described below. The origin of this frame coincides with the initial position of the center of mass of the system, and the coordinate axes are z along the local vertical, x toward the flight direction, and y in the orbit normal direction. The assumptions we used to model the dynamics are as follows: 1) The inertial frame is fixed at Earth's center. 2) The orbiting Frame ORF follows Keplerian orbit. 3) the cloud system dynamics is referred to ORF. 4) the attitude of each grain uses the principal body frame as body fixed frame. 5) the atmosphere is assumed to be rigidly rotating with the Earth. Regarding the grains forming the cloud: 1) each grain is modeled as a rigid body; 2) a simple attitude estimator provides attitude estimates, 3) a simple guidance logic commands the position and attitude of each grain, 4) a simple local feedback controller based on PD control of local states is used to stabilize the attitude of the vehicle. Regarding the cloud: 1) the cloud as a whole is modeled as an equivalent rigid body in orbit, and 2) an associated graph establishes agent connectivity and enables coupling between modes of motion at the micro and macro scales; 3) a simple guidance and estimation logic is modeled to estimate and command the attitude of this equivalent rigid body; 4) a cloud shape maintenance controller is based on the dynamics of a stable virtual truss in the orbiting frame. Regarding the environmental perturbations acting on the cloud: 1) a non-spherical gravity field including JO (Earth's spherical field) zonal component, J2 (Earth's oblateness) and J3 zonal components is implemented; 2) atmospheric drag is modeled with an exponential model; 3) solar pressure is modeled assuming the Sun is inertially fixed; and 4) the Earth's magnetic field is model using an equivalent dipole model. The equations of motion are written in a referential system with respect to the origin of the orbiting frame and the state is propagated forward in time using an incremental predictor-corrector scheme. A representative cloud with varying number of grains is simulated to identify the limitations in computation time as the number of grains grows. We derive a control law to track a desired surface in the ORF (equivalently to maintain a reference cloud shape) by defining an error from a desired surface shape, and designing a control law that is exponentially stable and reduces the tracking error to zero. Figure 1 (top right) shows a comparison of various requirements for simulation of single spacecraft vs. granular spacecraft, indicating the high degree of complexity that needs to be taken into consideration. The ORF components of control force required by one of the grains is, for this particular case, in the micro-Newton range. However, no attempt has been made yet to reconfigure (or re-orient) the cloud configuration internally, for which forces in the milli-Newton level are expected, depending on the time required to do the reconfiguration. Figure 1, bottom, shows the computation time as a function of the number of grains, indicating an order N(exp 1.43) scaling on a 8 Gb, 1067 MHz RAM MacOSX computer with a 3.06 GHz Intel Core 2 Duo processor. With this metric, the same simulation for a system of N=1000 grains would take 5.4 hours, and 146 hours (i.e., 6 days) for a system with N=10,000 grains. Therefore, efficient ways to simulate this complex system, where not only the time scales of natural system dynamics, but also the sampling times of the Guidance, Navigation, and Control are included, remain to be explored. Additional details on the cloud modeling, dynamics, and control will be described in the paper.

simulation↗
DOE OSTI2022

Estimating mass-absorption cross-section of ambient black carbon aerosols: theoretical, empirical, and machine learning models

The mass-absorption cross-section of black carbon (MAC BC ) is an essential parameter to link the atmospheric concentration of black carbon (BC) with its radiative forcing. When a direct calculation of MAC BC based on observations of aerosol light absorption and BC mass concentration is impossible, we rely on modeling and simulations to estimate MAC BC , but currently, there is no consensus model that can be relied on for accurate predictions across all atmospheric environments when BC particles have different coating thicknesses. Here, we applied five MAC BC prediction models (including three light scattering theories, an empirical model based on observations of particle mass concentrations, and a machine learning model developed in our previous work) to aerosols from three Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) field campaigns. While many studies have found that increasing the complexity of the models helps to constrain biases of the estimated MAC BC , our effort is to evaluate the models based on the criteria of simplicity and accuracy. We find that our machine learning model (support vector machine for regression, SVM) generally performs well across all DOE ARM field campaign data, while the accuracy of core-shell Mie theory depends on the bias correction algorithm applied to filter-based light absorption data. Generally, the empirical model for internally-mixed particles that we considered tends to over-predict MAC BC , while Mie theory for externally-mixed particles tends to under-predict MAC BC . An examination of the influence of coating material on BC cores suggests that the performance of our current SVM model is degraded when the BC is thickly-coated (e.g., it has undergone aging and mixing with other materials in the atmosphere).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1974

Duration of magnetic field(s) acting on meteorite parent body(s)

An overview is presented on the efforts being made to estimate the time that the magnetic field(s) existed and acted on meteorite parent bodies. The basic premise is that if a sample exhibits a low K-Ar age, it is the requisite amount of Ar-40. This assumption is applied to a preliminary analysis of the Farmington chondrite.

Rowe, M. W.↗
NASA NTRS1975

Large-scale educational telecommunications systems for the US: An analysis of educational needs and technological opportunities

The needs to be served, the subsectors in which the system might be used, the technology employed, and the prospects for future utilization of an educational telecommunications delivery system are described and analyzed. Educational subsectors are analyzed with emphasis on the current status and trends within each subsector. Issues which affect future development, and prospects for future use of media, technology, and large-scale electronic delivery within each subsector are included. Information on technology utilization is presented. Educational telecommunications services are identified and grouped into categories: public television and radio, instructional television, computer aided instruction, computer resource sharing, and information resource sharing. Technology based services, their current utilization, and factors which affect future development are stressed. The role of communications satellites in providing these services is discussed. Efforts to analyze and estimate future utilization of large-scale educational telecommunications are summarized. Factors which affect future utilization are identified. Conclusions are presented.

Morgan, R. P.↗
NASA NTRS1976

Atmosphere, Magnetosphere and Plasmas in Space (AMPS). Spacelab payload definition study. Volume 7, book 2: AMPS phase C/D analysis and planning document

The results are presented of the AMPS Phase C/D (Design, Development, and Operations) program analysis and planning effort. Cost and schedule estimates are included. Although the AMPS program has been specifically addressed, these task descriptions are basically adaptable to a broader-based program incorporating additional or different Spacelab/orbiter payloads.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1978

An overview of the energy situation

Beginning with a historical review of the domestic pattern of energy usage, the current dependence of the United States upon dwindling petroleum resources is examined. The possible limit of petroleum usage is discussed, and recent oil production trends are presented. Coupling these with projected analyses of OPEC oil productive capability in the early 1980's indicates a serious worldwide as well as American energy problem in the next decade. The need for conservation and rapid development of application of alternative energy resources is discussed including quantitative projections of significant conservation efforts as well as estimates of domestic alternative energy resource capabilities.

Pitts, D. R.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Solar power satellite cost estimate

The solar power configuration costed is the 5 GW silicon solar cell reference system. The subsystems identified by work breakdown structure elements to the lowest level for which cost information was generated. This breakdown divides into five sections: the satellite, construction, transportation, the ground receiving station and maintenance. For each work breakdown structure element, a definition, design description and cost estimate were included. An effort was made to include for each element a reference that more thoroughly describes the element and the method of costing used. All costs are in 1977 dollars.

Harron, R. J.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Ultraviolet spectroscopy of planetary nebulae in the Magellanic Clouds

Ultraviolet spectra of the high excitation planetary nebulas LMC P40, SMC N2, and SMC N5 are presented in an investigation of their chemical composition in an effort to make reliable estimates of the carbon abundance in extragalactic planetary nebulas. The carbon abundance is found to be almost 40 times more abundant in the SMC planetaries than in the SMC interstellar medium, and is about 6 times more abundant in the LMC planetary than in the LMC interstellar medium. The net result of carbon synthesis and convective dredgeup in the progenitors of planetary nebulas as reflected in the nebular carbon abundance is roughly the same in the Galaxy, the LMC, and the SMC.

Maran, S. P.↗