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At least 127 records · Page 7

A 1 km soil moisture dataset over eastern CONUS generated by assimilating SMAP data into the Noah-MP land surface model

An improved fine-scale soil moisture (SM) dataset at 1 km grid spacing, covering much of the eastern continental US, was generated by assimilating 9 km Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) SM data into the v4.0.1 Noah-MP land surface model. With 12 ensemble members, the assimilation was carried out using the ensemble Kalman filter algorithm within NASA's Land Information System. The SM analysis for 2016 was fully validated against in situ observations from four different networks and compared with four other existing datasets. Results indicate that this SM analysis surpasses other datasets in top-layer SM distribution, including a machine-learning-based product, despite all SM estimates being less heterogeneous than observed. The analysis of anomalous errors suggests that large similarity in intrinsic errors is likely due to overlapping data sources among the selected SM datasets. More detailed evaluations were performed over two geographic areas. The observations collected by the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement facility in Oklahoma suggest that soil temperature and surface heat fluxes are concurrently simulated with good accuracy. Investigation into the 2016 southeastern US drought response further indicates drier conditions and higher evapotranspiration estimates compared to GLEAMv4.1. Notably, large errors are associated with grids having clay soil textures, underscoring the need for refined model treatments for specific soil types to further improve SM estimates. The dataset is publicly available on Zenodo at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14370563 (Tai et al., 2024).

Tai, Sheng-Lun [Pacific Northwest National Laborat↗

Data for Physiological Controls on Carbon Fluxes and Biomass Production in Miscanthus: Insights From a Process- Based Agroecosystem Model

Biomass crops serve as essential feedstocks for renewable energy and bioproducts and play a critical role in achieving lower emissions in the transportation sector. However, dedicated perennial biomass crops such as Miscanthus × giganteus (Miscanthus) remain underrepresented in process- based agroecosystem models, limiting robust evaluation of their economic and environmental performance. In this study, we developed a data- constrained representation of the sterile triploid Miscanthus (IL clone) within the process- based model ecosys, integrating global sensitivity analysis, ensemble simulation, and parameter calibration. Planting, harvesting, and fertilization practices consistent with field management were incorporated, and phenology was constrained using PhenoCam- derived Green Chromatic Coordinate (GCC) data. Using the Morris global sensitivity analysis method, we identified 11 key physiological parameters governing plant carbon, water, and nutrient relations, particularly processes associated with CO2 assimilation. We then conducted ensemble simulations by perturbing these parameters and calibrated the model against eddy covariance fluxes and field- measured biomass. Building on the calibrated operating state, parameter- response analyses show that different photosynthetic processes influence productivity in different ways. Protein allocation determines whether productivity increases toward a higher level, whereas electron transport capacity controls additional gains once protein allocation approaches saturation. These findings demonstrate that parameter importance depends on physiological context and on which photosynthetic processes remain limiting. Calibration and validation against observations show that ecosys can reliably reproduce carbon and water fluxes, as well as both above- and belowground biomass, with post- calibration GPP R2 improving from 0.67 to 0.95 during the calibration period and remaining high during validation (R2 = 0.95). These results provide a mechanistic foundation for regional simulations and sustainable bioenergy assessments.

Carbon↗

Wormholes with ends of the world

We study classical wormhole solutions in 3D gravity with end-of-the-world (EOW) branes, conical defects, kinks, and punctures. These solutions compute statistical averages of an ensemble of boundary conformal field theories (BCFTs) related to universal asymptotics of OPE data extracted from the 2D conformal bootstrap. Conical defects connect BCFT bulk operators; branes join BCFT boundary intervals with identical boundary conditions; kinks (1D defects along branes) link BCFT boundary operators; and punctures (0D defects) are endpoints where conical defects terminate on branes. We provide evidence for a correspondence between the gravity theory and the ensemble. In particular, the agreement of the g-function dependence results from an underlying topological aspect of the on-shell EOW brane action, from which a BCFT analog of the Schlenker-Witten theorem also follows.

AdS-CFT Correspondence↗

Physics-based hybrid machine learning for critical heat flux prediction with uncertainty quantification

Critical heat flux (CHF) is a key quantity in nuclear system modeling due to its impact on heat transfer, safety margins, and reactor performance. This study develops and validates an uncertainty-aware hybrid modeling approach that combines machine learning with physics-based models to predict CHF in cases of dryout. The Biasi and Bowring empirical correlations were paired with three ML uncertainty quantification (UQ) techniques: deep neural network (DNN) ensembles, Bayesian neural networks (BNNs), and deep Gaussian processes (DGPs). A pure ML model without a base model was evaluated for comparison. Model performance was assessed under plentiful (7,350 points) and limited (9 points) training data scenarios using parity, uncertainty distributions, and calibration curves. Results show that the Biasi hybrid DNN ensemble achieved the best overall performance, with a mean absolute relative error of 1.846%, and well-calibrated uncertainty estimates. The BNN-based hybrids showed slightly higher error (2.14%) but superior uncertainty calibration. DGP models underperformed, with over 6% error and poor uncertainty calibration. All hybrid models outperformed pure machine learning configurations, demonstrating resistance against data scarcity. These findings indicate that hybrid modeling significantly improves predictive accuracy, interpretability, and resilience to data scarcity. The integration of uncertainty awareness provides actionable confidence in CHF predictions, which is vital for safety-critical decisions in nuclear applications. This hybrid approach offers a viable pathway for deploying ML models in reactor analysis tools while preserving domain knowledge and physical consistency.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Machine learning-driven descriptions of protein dynamics at solid-liquid interfaces

This chapter has described how ML has enabled quantitative analysis of HS-AFM data to discover the physical phenomena governing protein dynamics and ordering at solid-liquid interfaces. The research detailed in this chapter modeled the rotation models of protein nanorods, the discovery of which would otherwise not be possible. By tracking the trajectories of individual protein rods from frame to frame, it was possible to model Brownian type motion and behaviors and Levy-flight dynamics that had not previously been shown. We also described the application of the Python package AtomAI, which has been developed specifically to analyze and extract physical phenomena, providing exemplar code for training an ensemble of deep neural networks to produce the semantic segmentation of AFM data and functions for encoding and decoding local environments. We last described a combinatorial approach to analyze very noisy data with a densely covered substrate where the emergence of order for the protein liquid crystals could be elucidated. By combining the methods from Case 1 and 2, it was possible to obtain the center of mass and angle for each rod in the images and track the assembly of the rods over time into a 2D liquid crystal array on the surface of mica.

protein dynamics, solid-liquid interfaces, atomic ↗

Physiological Controls on Carbon Fluxes and Biomass Production in Miscanthus: Insights From a Process‐Based Agroecosystem Model

Biomass crops serve as essential feedstocks for renewable energy and bioproducts and play a critical role in achieving lower emissions in the transportation sector. However, dedicated perennial biomass crops such as Miscanthus × giganteus (Miscanthus) remain underrepresented in process-based agroecosystem models, limiting robust evaluation of their economic and environmental performance. In this study, we developed a data-constrained representation of the sterile triploid Miscanthus (IL clone) within the process-based model ecosys, integrating global sensitivity analysis, ensemble simulation, and parameter calibration. Planting, harvesting, and fertilization practices consistent with field management were incorporated, and phenology was constrained using PhenoCam-derived Green Chromatic Coordinate (GCC) data. Using the Morris global sensitivity analysis method, we identified 11 key physiological parameters governing plant carbon, water, and nutrient relations, particularly processes associated with CO 2 assimilation. We then conducted ensemble simulations by perturbing these parameters and calibrated the model against eddy covariance fluxes and field-measured biomass. Building on the calibrated operating state, parameter-response analyses show that different photosynthetic processes influence productivity in different ways. Protein allocation determines whether productivity increases toward a higher level, whereas electron transport capacity controls additional gains once protein allocation approaches saturation. These findings demonstrate that parameter importance depends on physiological context and on which photosynthetic processes remain limiting. Calibration and validation against observations show that ecosys can reliably reproduce carbon and water fluxes, as well as both above- and belowground biomass, with post-calibration GPP R 2 improving from 0.67 to 0.95 during the calibration period and remaining high during validation (R 2 = 0.95). These results provide a mechanistic foundation for regional simulations and sustainable bioenergy assessments.

ecosys↗

Meeting Global Health Needs via Infectious Disease Forecasting: Development of a Reliable Data-Driven Framework

Infectious diseases (IDs) have a significant detrimental impact on global health. Timely and accurate ID forecasting can result in more informed implementation of control measures and prevention policies. To meet the operational decision-making needs of real-world circumstances, we aimed to build a standardized, reliable, and trustworthy ID forecasting pipeline and visualization dashboard that is generalizable across a wide range of modeling techniques, IDs, and global locations. We forecasted 6 diverse, zoonotic diseases (brucellosis, campylobacteriosis, Middle East respiratory syndrome, Q fever, tick-borne encephalitis, and tularemia) across 4 continents and 8 countries. We included a wide range of statistical, machine learning, and deep learning models (n=9) and trained them on a multitude of features (average n=2326) within the One Health landscape, including demography, landscape, climate, and socioeconomic factors. The pipeline and dashboard were created in consideration of crucial operational metrics—prediction accuracy, computational efficiency, spatiotemporal generalizability, uncertainty quantification, and interpretability—which are essential to strategic data-driven decisions. While no single best model was suitable for all disease, region, and country combinations, our ensemble technique selects the best-performing model for each given scenario to achieve the closest prediction. For new or emerging diseases in a region, the ensemble model can predict how the disease may behave in the new region using a pretrained model from a similar region with a history of that disease. The data visualization dashboard provides a clean interface of important analytical metrics, such as ID temporal patterns, forecasts, prediction uncertainties, and model feature importance across all geographic locations and disease combinations. As the need for real-time, operational ID forecasting capabilities increases, this standardized and automated platform for data collection, analysis, and reporting is a major step forward in enabling evidence-based public health decisions and policies for the prevention and mitigation of future ID outbreaks.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Detection of Diversion in a Realistic Heat Pipe Microreactor Using Supervised Machine Learning

Microreactors (MRs) pose new challenges for international safeguards. Here, their small size and mass reproducibility make them ideal for deployment in greater numbers and in remote locations, making the job of safeguards inspectors more challenging. Machine learning (ML) is currently being applied to many fields to augment human performance and increase automation; in particular, ML could be used to provide insight for international inspectors to help detect the diversion of nuclear fuel from MR cores. Four ML model types (k-nearest neighbors, decision tree, random forest, and histogram-based gradient boosted ensemble) were trained on integrated flux and critical control drum angle data generated with Serpent 2 for a realistic heat pipe MR design, achieving nearly 100% binary classification accuracy of nominal and diversion core configurations by the end of 1 full power year for three of the four model types. Regression model variants were also trained, using the same input data, for predicting the number of fuel pins diverted. Root-mean-square errors below 5% of the total number of fuel pins were achieved by the 1 full power year mark for all models.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Uncertainty-Aware Machine Learning for Small-Angle X-ray Scattering Analysis in Autonomous Experimentation

Small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) is a powerful high-throughput characterization tool for probing nanoscale structure in native sample environments, providing real-time morphological information such as nanoparticle size and shape during synthesis. However, automated SAXS data analysis for extracting meaningful structural parameters is non-trivial and remains a bottleneck in closed-loop experimentation towards autonomous materials discovery, which demands fast, reliable, and uncertainty-aware data analysis. Here, we develop a machine-learning approach for automated SAXS analysis tailored to closed-loop nanoparticle synthesis. A Random Forest (RF) regression model is trained on 100,000 synthetic SAXS curves generated from polydisperse spherical nanoparticles with realistic background contributions. Using normalized one-dimensional SAXS intensity profiles as input, the RF model directly predicts nanoparticle radius, size polydispersity, and background parameters, while the ensemble standard deviation across trees provides built-in uncertainty quantification (UQ). On synthetic data, we show that combining fit-quality metrics (R 2 , MAE) with thresholds on prediction uncertainty reliably identifies accurate parameter estimates without access to ground truth. We then apply the trained model to 365 experimental SAXS profiles of citrate-reduced gold nanoparticles synthesized using an automated droplet-flow microreactor with in situ SAXS at a synchrotron beamline, classifying the results into high- and low-confidence subsets based on UQ metrics. Finally, we integrate RF-based SAXS analysis into a simulated closed-loop optimization campaign using Gaussian process Bayesian optimization to minimize nanoparticle polydispersity, benchmarking against conventional automated Levenberg–Marquardt fitting. The RF-guided campaign exhibits substantially faster convergence and lower relative opportunity cost (∼0.07 vs ∼0.3), demonstrating that uncertainty-aware machine-learning SAXS analysis significantly enhances the efficiency and robustness of autonomous nanomaterials synthesis workflows.

Bayesian optimization↗

The Role of Snowmelt and Subsurface Heterogeneity in Headwater Hydrology of a Mountainous Catchment in Colorado: A Model‐Data Integration Approach

Mountainous headwater streams are sustained by both snowmelt‐driven streamflow and groundwater discharge in the Upper Colorado River Basin. However, predicting headwater stream discharge magnitude and peak flow timing is challenging in mountainous terrains, where snowmelt rates vary with vegetation type and elevation, and heterogeneous subsurface physical properties influence groundwater storage and its release. We used a model‐data integration approach to investigate the roles of snowmelt and subsurface structure in stream discharge and groundwater level. We ran an ensemble of 100 integrated surface‐subsurface hydrologic models for a mountainous headwater catchment near Crested Butte, Colorado, USA. We also evaluated and calibrated these models against observed data sets, including snow depth measurements using distributed temperature probes, stream discharge, and groundwater levels. Calibration with multiple data sources using neural density estimators has further constrained uncertainty in subsurface properties and snowmelt rates. Results indicated that observed slower snowmelt rates in evergreen forests delayed the peak flow and baseflow onset. In upstream areas with lower subsurface permeability, water was stored within the subsurface but was not released as interflow or shallow groundwater flow, and thereby not contributing to downstream streamflow during recession limb periods. Double peaks in groundwater occurred in areas with spatial subsurface heterogeneity, in our case due to the contrast between granodiorite and Mancos shale. These process‐based insights into groundwater and snowmelt dynamics in mountainous headwaters will help improve predictions of headwater hydrology.

Wang, Lijing [University of Connecticut, Storrs, C↗

Enhancing Automotive Intrusion Detection Through Multi-Modal Fusion: A CAN FD-LiDAR Approach

As vehicles become smarter and more autonomous, they increasingly depend on advanced sensors and communication technologies to operate securely. However, such growing dependence on technology—whether it’s CAN (Controller Area Network) for internal communication or LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) for sensing the world around them—also expands the attack surface for the types of cyber attacks. Traditional intrusion detection systems (IDS) typically monitor these systems in isolation, limiting their ability to detect sophisticated, crosssystem attacks. To address this, we propose a multi-modal fusion approach that combines real-world CAN FD signals (from the HCRL dataset) with LiDAR features (from the nuScenes dataset) to enhance attack detection. Our method employs a twostage ensemble approach. Calibrated XGBoost and LightGBM models initially process CAN FD (Fuzzing Data) and LiDAR data independently, detecting timing anomalies and space abnormalities. They are subsequently logarithmically combined with a logistic regression meta-model along with 17 engineered features capturing cross-modal behavior, prediction conflicts, and nonlinear interactions. This approach achieves an AUC of 0.87 and an F1-score of 0.82, surpassing single-modality baselines and early fusion methods, at merely 2 ms inference latency. Compared with deep learning competitors, it is 3 times more efficient, providing a lightweight, interpretable, and real time solution to automotive cybersecurity.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A multi-algorithm approach for modeling coastal wetland eco-geomorphology

Coastal wetlands play an important role in the global water and biogeochemical cycles. Climate change makes it more difficult for these ecosystems to adapt to the fluctuation in sea levels and other environmental changes. Given the importance of eco-geomorphological processes for coastal wetland resilience, many eco-geomorphology models differing in complexity and numerical schemes have been developed in recent decades. However, their divergent estimates of the response of coastal wetlands to climate change indicate that substantial structural uncertainties exist in these models. To investigate the structural uncertainty of coastal wetland eco-geomorphology models, we developed a multi-algorithm model framework of eco-geomorphological processes, such as mineral accretion and organic matter accretion, within a single hydrodynamics model. The framework is designed to explore possible ways to represent coastal wetland eco-geomorphology in Earth system models and reduce the related uncertainties in global applications. We tested this model framework at three representative coastal wetland sites: two saltmarsh wetlands (Venice Lagoon and Plum Island Estuary) and a mangrove wetland (Hunter Estuary). Through the model–data comparison, we showed the importance of using a multi-algorithm ensemble approach for more robust predictions of the evolution of coastal wetlands. We also found that more observations of mineral and organic matter accretion at different elevations of coastal wetlands and evaluation of the coastal wetland models at different sites in diverse environments can help reduce the model uncertainty.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Uncertainty-Informed Volume Visualization using Implicit Neural Representation

The increasing adoption of Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) has led to their application in many challenging scientific visualization tasks. While advanced DNNs offer impressive generalization capabilities, understanding factors such as model prediction quality, robustness, and uncertainty is crucial. These insights can enable domain scientists to make informed decisions about their data. However, DNNs inherently lack ability to estimate prediction uncertainty, necessitating new research to construct robust uncertainty-aware visualization techniques tailored for various visualization tasks. In this work, we propose uncertainty-aware implicit neural representations to model scalar field data sets effectively and comprehensively study the efficacy and benefits of estimated uncertainty information for volume visualization tasks. We evaluate the effectiveness of two principled deep uncertainty estimation techniques: (1) Deep Ensemble and (2) Monte Carlo Dropout (MC-Dropout). These techniques enable uncertainty-informed volume visualization in scalar field data sets. Our extensive exploration across multiple data sets demonstrates that uncertainty-aware models produce informative volume visualization results. Moreover, integrating prediction uncertainty enhances the trustworthiness of our DNN model, making it suitable for robustly analyzing and visualizing real-world scientific volumetric data sets.

Saklani, Shanu↗

HydraGNN_GFM_FineTuning4Materials v1.0

This repository enables fine-tuning of the HydraGNN Predictive GFM 2026 — an open-source ensemble of pre-trained graph foundation models for atomistic materials modeling, developed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The GFM 2026 is freely available and downloadable via Globus from the OLCF Data Constellation (DOI: 10.13139/OLCF/2562660). Starting from these pre-trained weights, this repository provides a complete transfer learning pipeline for adapting the GFM ensemble to domain-specific molecular and materials property prediction tasks. It includes: 1) Utilities for ensemble fine-tuning with task-specific output heads 2) Example pipelines for eight widely-used materials and molecular datasets 3) Tools for model adaptation and head configuration 4) Data preprocessing utilities for each supported dataset 5) Benchmarking and evaluation scripts

Ungerboeck, Linda↗

Ensemble methods for quantification of potassium oxide in ChemCam Mars and laboratory spectra

In this paper we test new approaches for predicting the amount of element oxides in rock samples from the ChemCam instrument suite onboard the NASA Curiosity rover by focusing on K 2 O. Using the expanded dataset compiled by Gasda et al. (2021) with and without the Earth to Mars (E2M and NoE2M) transformation discussed in Clegg et al. (2017) we trained blended submodels using the “double blending” technique and compared these to ensemble methods (Random Forest, ExtraTrees, and Gradient Boosting Regression). We found that ensemble methods performed similar to blended submodels when looking at RMSE-P on the laboratory spectra and provided significant advantages when looking at spectra coming from Mars. For the full model, blended submodels achieved an RMSE-P of 0.62 and 0.60 (E2M and NoE2M respectively) while Gradient Boosting Regression resulted in a slightly improved RMSE-P of 0.59 and 0.60. More importantly, by employing a local RMSE-P estimation technique where model performance is evaluated based on nearby test samples we found that using ensemble methods can lower the quantification limit for K 2 O from the current value of ≈0.6 wt% to ≈0.08 wt% using Extra Trees and Random Forest. This would allow for a much larger range of K 2 O values to be quantified on Mars with greater certainty given that most targets seen on Mars tend to have <1 wt% K2O. Finally, we used both Mean Decrease in Impurity (MDI) and permutation importance techniques to investigate the wavelengths used by the ensemble methods and found that they correspond to known potassium emission lines. This suggests that ensemble methods can provide an easier to train and improved alternative to blended submodels for predicting potassium compositions from Laser Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy (LIBS) data.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

EFIT-Prime: Probabilistic and physics-constrained reduced-order neural network model for equilibrium reconstruction in DIII-D

We introduce EFIT-Prime, a novel machine learning surrogate model for EFIT (Equilibrium FIT) that integrates probabilistic and physics-informed methodologies to overcome typical limitations associated with deterministic and ad hoc neural network architectures. EFIT-Prime utilizes a neural architecture search-based deep ensemble for robust uncertainty quantification, providing scalable and efficient neural architectures that comprehensively quantify both data and model uncertainties. Physically informed by the Grad–Shafranov equation, EFIT-Prime applies a constraint on the current density J tor and a smoothness constraint on the first derivative of the poloidal flux, ensuring physically plausible solutions. Furthermore, the spatial location of the diagnostics is explicitly incorporated in the inputs to account for their spatial correlation. Extensive evaluations demonstrate EFIT-Prime's accuracy and robustness across diverse scenarios, most notably showing good generalization on negative-triangularity discharges that were excluded from training. Timing studies indicate an ensemble inference time of 15 ms for predicting a new equilibrium, offering the possibility of plasma control in real-time, if the model is optimized for speed.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Exploring Data Set Bias and Decision Support with Predictive Uncertainty Through Bayesian Approximations and Convolutional Neural Networks

Individual seismic catalogs can contain multiscale observations from fault level to global scales and associated waveforms from discrete events reflect crustal structure across many different scales and locations. Seismic network aperture, geographic location, and observation distance may not provide informative guidance or intuition on how different catalogs will behave across models trained under different conditions. We rely on uncertainty to provide guardrails for when to trust model decisions, but understanding when our uncertainty is trustworthy is an open challenge. Here, in this work, we explore Bayesian approximation methods for assigning predictive uncertainty in seismic event classification problems. We find that computationally expensive Bayesian approximations do not outperform simple ensemble methods. We also find that when exploiting multiple seismic event catalogs, joint training with data from all the catalogs combined with Bayesian approximations and supervised training for classification can obscure bias and result in less robust uncertainty while also not providing substantial performance benefits compared to training individual models for each catalog.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Structural basis of differential gene expression at eQTLs loci from high-resolution ensemble models of 3D single-cell chromatin conformations

Abstract Motivation Techniques such as high-throughput chromosome conformation capture (Hi-C) have provided a wealth of information on nucleus organization and genome important for understanding gene expression regulation. Genome-Wide Association Studies have identified numerous loci associated with complex traits. Expression quantitative trait loci (eQTL) studies have further linked the genetic variants to alteration in expression levels of associated target genes across individuals. However, the functional roles of many eQTLs in noncoding regions remain unclear. Current joint analyses of Hi-C and eQTLs data lack advanced computational tools, limiting what can be learned from these data. Results We developed a computational method for simultaneous analysis of Hi-C and eQTL data, capable of identifying a small set of nonrandom interactions from all Hi-C interactions. Using these nonrandom interactions, we reconstructed large ensembles (×105) of high-resolution single-cell 3D chromatin conformations with thorough sampling, accurately replicating Hi-C measurements. Our results revealed many-body interactions in chromatin conformation at the single-cell level within eQTL loci, providing a detailed view of how 3D chromatin structures form the physical foundation for gene regulation, including how genetic variants of eQTLs affect the expression of associated eGenes. Furthermore, our method can deconvolve chromatin heterogeneity and investigate the spatial associations of eQTLs and eGenes at subpopulation level, revealing their regulatory impacts on gene expression. Together, ensemble modeling of thoroughly sampled single-cell chromatin conformations combined with eQTL data, helps decipher how 3D chromatin structures provide the physical basis for gene regulation, expression control, and aid in understanding the overall structure-function relationships of genome organization. Availability and implementation It is available at https://github.com/uic-liang-lab/3DChromFolding-eQTL-Loci.

Du, Lin (ORCID:0009000289869812)↗