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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 127 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Global fire modelling and control attributions based on the ensemble machine learning and satellite observations

Contemporary fire dynamics is one of the most complex and least understood land surface phenomena. Global fire controls related to climate, vegetation, and anthropogenic activity are usually intertwined, and difficult to disentangle in a quantitative way. Here, we leveraged an ensemble of five machine learning (ML) models and multiple satellite-based observations to conduct global fire modeling for three fire metrics (burned area, fire number, and fire size), and quantified driving mechanisms underlying annual fire changes in a spatially resolved manner for the period 2003–2019. Ensemble learning is a meta-approach that combines multiple ML predictions to improve accuracy, robustness, and generalization performance. We found that the optimized ensemble ML well reproduced annual dynamics of global burned area (R 2 = 0.90, P < 0.001), total fire numbers (R 2 = 0.86, P < 0.001), and averaged fire size (R 2 = 0.70, P < 0.001). Additionally, the ensemble ML captured key spatial patterns of multi-year mean magnitudes, annual variabilities, anomalies, and trends for different fire metrics. Our ML-based fire attributions further highlighted the dominant role of enhanced anthropogenic activity in reducing global burned area (–1.9 Mha/yr, P < 0.01), followed by climate control (–1.3 Mha/yr, P < 0.01) and insignificant positive vegetation control (0.4 Mha/yr, P = 0.60). Spatially, climate dominated a much larger burned area (53.7%) than human (23.4%) or vegetation control (22.9%); however, the counteracting effects from regional wetting and drying trends weakened the net climate impacts on global burned area. The fire number and fire size exhibited similar spatial control patterns with burned area; globally, however, fire number tended to be more affected by climate while fire size more influenced by human activities. Overall, our study confirmed the feasibility and efficiency of ensemble ML in global fire modeling and subsequent control attributions, providing a better understanding of contemporary fire regimes and contributing to robust fire projections in a changing environment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2001

Ensemble Canonical Correlation Prediction of Seasonal Precipitation Over the United States: Raising the Bar for Dynamical Model Forecasts

This paper presents preliminary results of an ensemble canonical correlation (ECC) prediction scheme developed at the Climate and Radiation Branch, NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center for determining the potential predictability of regional precipitation, and for climate downscaling studies. The scheme is tested on seasonal hindcasts of anomalous precipitation over the continental United States using global sea surface temperature (SST) for 1951-2000. To maximize the forecast skill derived from SST, the world ocean is divided into non-overlapping sectors. The canonical SST modes for each sector are used as the predictor for the ensemble hindcasts. Results show that the ECC yields a substantial (10-25%) increase in prediction skills for all the regions of the US in every season compared to traditional CCA prediction schemes. For the boreal winter, the tropical Pacific contributes the largest potential predictability to precipitation in the southwestern and southeastern regions, while the North Pacific and the North Atlantic are responsible to the enhanced forecast skills in the Pacific Northwest, the northern Great Plains and Ohio Valley. Most importantly, the ECC increases skill for summertime precipitation prediction and substantially reduces the spring predictability barrier over all the regions of the US continent. Besides SST, the ECC is designed with the flexibility to include any number of predictor fields, such as soil moisture, snow cover and additional local observations. The enhanced ECC forecast skill provides a new benchmark for evaluating dynamical model forecasts.

Lau, William K. M.↗
DOE OSTI2020

BEAM (Battery Ensemble ANN Modeler) [SWR-19-69]

Dynamic losses of batteries can be a nonlinear function of the operational state of the battery. This package trains an Ensemble of Artificial Neural Networks on battery operational data to model the dynamic losses as a function of the operational state of charge and the active power set point. The package can also be used to return the dynamic battery losses which will be incurred as the battery operates if fed some operational profile.

Bryce, Richard↗
DOE OSTI2026

Enhanced accuracy through ensembling of randomly initialized auto-regressive models for dynamical systems

Computational mechanics simulations using traditional finite element methods (FEM) require prohibitively expensive computational resources for real-time engineering applications, design optimization, and digital twin implementations. While machine learning (ML) surrogate models offer significant computational speedups, autoregressive ML models for time-dependent mechanical systems suffer from error accumulation that compromises long-term prediction reliability - a critical concern for engineering applications where accuracy over extended time horizons is essential for safety and performance assessments. Here, we propose a deep ensemble framework specifically designed to address this challenge in computational mechanics applications, where multiple ML surrogate models with random weight initializations are trained in parallel and their predictions aggregated during inference. This approach leverages statistical diversity to maximize information gain from a fixed set of training data and to mitigate error propagation, while maintaining the computational efficiency that makes ML surrogates attractive for engineering practice. We validate the framework on three representative problems spanning critical areas of computational mechanics: stress field evolution in heterogeneous microstructures under complex loading (relevant to advanced materials design and composite analysis), planetary-scale shallow water dynamics (applicable to environmental and geotechnical engineering), and Gray-Scott reaction-diffusion systems (relevant to mass transport and chemical process engineering). Across all test cases, the ensemble approach demonstrates consistent error reduction of 15-33% compared to individual models. The codes for this work are available on GitHub (https://github.com/Graham-Brady-Research-Group/AutoregressiveEnsemble_SpatioTemporal_Evolution).

autoregressive prediction↗
DOE OSTI2021

Deconstructing the Local Intermolecular Ordering and Dynamics of Liquid Chloroform and Bromoform

Local intermolecular structure and dynamics of the polar molecular liquids chloroform and bromoform are studied by molecular dynamics simulation. Structural distribution functions, including 1- and 2-D pair correlations and dipole contour plots allow direct comparison and show agreement with recent analyses of diffraction experiments. Studies of the haloforms’ reorientational dynamics and longevity of structural features resulting from intermolecular interaction extend previous work toward deeper understanding of the factors controlling these features. Analyses of ensemble average structures and dynamical properties isolate mass, electrostatics, and steric packing as driving forces or contributing factors for the observed ordering and dynamics.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Nonlinear Ensemble Filtering with Diffusion Models: Application to the Surface Quasigeostrophic Dynamics

The intersection between classical data assimilation methods and novel machine learning techniques has attracted significant interest in recent years. Here, we explore another promising solution in which diffusion models are used to formulate a robust nonlinear ensemble filter for sequential data assimilation. Unlike standard machine learning methods, the proposed ensemble score filter (EnSF) is completely training free and can efficiently generate a set of analysis ensemble members. Here, in this study, we apply the EnSF to a surface quasigeostrophic model and compare its performance against the popular local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF), which makes Gaussian assumptions in the analysis step. Numerical tests demonstrate that EnSF maintains stable performance in the absence of localization and for a variety of experimental settings. We find that while LETKF maintains optimal performance in the case of linear observations of the entire state and a perfect model, EnSF shows improvements over LETKF when nonlinear observations are assimilated and the system is subject to unexpected model errors. A spectral decomposition of the analysis results in this nonlinear observation regime shows that the largest improvements over LETKF occur at large scales (small wavenumbers), where LETKF lacks sufficient ensemble spread. Overall, this initial application of EnSF to a geophysical model of intermediate complexity motivates further development of the algorithm for more realistic problems.

Artificial intelligence↗
DOE OSTI2022

Learning emergent partial differential equations in a learned emergent space

We propose an approach to learn effective evolution equations for large systems of interacting agents. This is demonstrated on two examples, a well-studied system of coupled normal form oscillators and a biologically motivated example of coupled Hodgkin-Huxley-like neurons. For such types of systems there is no obvious space coordinate in which to learn effective evolution laws in the form of partial differential equations. In our approach, we accomplish this by learning embedding coordinates from the time series data of the system using manifold learning as a first step. In these emergent coordinates, we then show how one can learn effective partial differential equations, using neural networks, that do not only reproduce the dynamics of the oscillator ensemble, but also capture the collective bifurcations when system parameters vary. The proposed approach thus integrates the automatic, data-driven extraction of emergent space coordinates parametrizing the agent dynamics, with machine-learning assisted identification of an emergent PDE description of the dynamics in this parametrization.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Spatially-resolved dynamic sampling of different phasic magnetic resonances of nanoparticle ensembles in a magnetotactic bacterium Magnetospirillum magnetotacticum

Abstract Nanoscaled magnetic particle ensembles are promising building blocks for realizing magnon based binary logic. Element-specific real-space monitoring of magnetic resonance modes with sampling rates in the GHz regime is imperative for the experimental verification of future complex magnonic devices. Here we present the observation of different phasic magnetic resonance modes using the element-specific technique of time-resolved scanning transmission x-ray microscopy within a chain of dipolarly coupled Fe 3 O 4 nanoparticles (40–50 nm particle size) inside a single cell of a magnetotactic bacterium Magnetospirillum magnetotacticum . The particles are probed with 25 nm resolution at the Fe L 3 x-ray absorption edge in response to a microwave excitation of 4.07 GHz. A plethora of resonance modes is observed within multiple particle segments oscillating in- and out-of-phase, well resembled by micromagnetic simulations.

time-resolved scanning transmission x-ray microsco↗
NASA NTRS1994

Consequences of magnetotail ion dynamics

The trajectories of a large ensemble of particles are calculated in a modified Tsyganenko magnetic field model with a uniform cross-tail electric field. The model magnetotail can be divided into several distinct dynamical regimes of ion motion. Near Earth, where the field lines are dipolar the adiabatic formalism is adequate. In the mid-tail and distant tail, guiding-center theory breaks down and must be replaced by a quasi-adiabatic formalism. There is an important transition region between the adiabatic and quasi-adiabatic regions where ion trajectories become more complicated and no simple analytical description holds. This wall region is characterized by rapid ion acceleration and a major loss of particles to the dusk flank. The moments of the ion distribution function are constructued from the ion trajectories, including density, temperature, and pressure in the x-z and x-y planes. In the noon-midnight meridian plane, parameters are relatively constant except near the Earth, while the x-y plots show strong gradients across the magnetotail. Magnetotail plasma convects earthward, drifts toward dusk, and is squeezed out of the tail in the near-Earth region. A thin current sheet forms in the quasi-adiabatic region, and the pressure tensor has significant off-diagonal terms at its edges. These terms are the result of quasi-adiabatic ion trajectories which lead to azimuthally asymmetric distribution functions capable of maintaining approximate stress balance across the current sheet. Simplified analytical descriptions provide further physical insight into ion dynamics that are observed.

Ashour-Abdalla, Maha↗
NASA NTRS2013

On the Lack of Stratospheric Dynamical Variability in Low-top Versions of the CMIP5 Models

We describe the main differences in simulations of stratospheric climate and variability by models within the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) that have a model top above the stratopause and relatively fine stratospheric vertical resolution (high-top), and those that have a model top below the stratopause (low-top). Although the simulation of mean stratospheric climate by the two model ensembles is similar, the low-top model ensemble has very weak stratospheric variability on daily and interannual time scales. The frequency of major sudden stratospheric warming events is strongly underestimated by the low-top models with less than half the frequency of events observed in the reanalysis data and high-top models. The lack of stratospheric variability in the low-top models affects their stratosphere-troposphere coupling, resulting in short-lived anomalies in the Northern Annular Mode, which do not produce long-lasting tropospheric impacts, as seen in observations. The lack of stratospheric variability, however, does not appear to have any impact on the ability of the low-top models to reproduce past stratospheric temperature trends. We find little improvement in the simulation of decadal variability for the high-top models compared to the low-top, which is likely related to the fact that neither ensemble produces a realistic dynamical response to volcanic eruptions.

troposphere↗
DOE OSTI2026

Deterministic Quantum Trajectory via Imaginary Time Evolution

Stochastic quantum trajectories, such as pure state evolutions under unitary dynamics and random measurements, offer a crucial ensemble description of many-body open system dynamics. Recent studies have highlighted that individual quantum trajectories also encode essential physical information. Prominent examples include measurement-induced phase transitions, where a pure quantum state corresponding to fixed measurement outcomes (trajectories) exhibits distinct entanglement phases, depending on the measurement rate. However, direct observation of this effect is hindered by an exponential postselection barrier, whereby the probability of realizing a specific trajectory is exponentially small. We propose a deterministic method to efficiently prepare quantum trajectories in polynomial time using imaginary time evolution and, thus, overcome this fundamental challenge. Here, we demonstrate that our method applies to a certain class of quantum states, and argue that universal approaches do not exist for any quantum trajectories. Our result paves the way for experimentally exploring the physics of individual quantum trajectories at scale and enables direct observation of certain postselection-dependent phenomena.

Mittal, Shivan [Los Alamos National Laboratory (LA↗
DOE OSTI2021

Comparing Global Spray Combustion Characteristics and Local Shot-to-Shot Variations in a Reacting n -Heptane Spray

In support of efforts to develop improved models of turbulent spray behavior and combustion in diesel engines, experimental data and analysis must be obtained for guidance and validation. For Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS)-based Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modeling approaches, representative ensemble average experimental results are important. For high-fidelity models such as large eddy simulations (LES)-based CFD, precise individual experimental results are desirable. However, making comparisons between a given experiment and LES is a challenge since local parameters cannot be directly compared. In this work, an optically accessible constant pressure flow rig (CPFR) is utilized to acquire diesel-like fuel injection and reaction behavior simultaneously with three optical diagnostic techniques: rainbow Schlieren deflectometry (RSD), OH* chemiluminescence (OH*), and two-color pyrometry (2CP). The CPFR allows a large number of repeated injection experiments to be performed for statistical analysis and convergence using ensemble-averaging techniques, while maintaining highly repeatable test conditions. Even for stable test conditions, variations in local turbulent fuel–air mixing introduce variability, which manifests as significant differences in OH* and 2CP results. Experimental measurements of characteristic parameters including liquid and vapor jet penetration, liftoff length, soot temperature and concentration, and turbulent flame speed, along with the shot-to-shot variability of each dataset, are presented and discussed. Finally, a statistical method is utilized to analyze the extent of this variability, and to identify superlative injections within the dataset for discussion and analysis of shot-to-shot variations.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Molecular Simulations Probing the Adsorption and Diffusion of Ammonia, Nitrogen, Hydrogen, and Their Mixtures in Bulk MFI Zeolite and MFI Nanosheets at High Temperature and Pressure

Recent advances in the synthesis of MFI zeolite nanosheets have led to highly selective membranes that are promising candidates for small-scale ammonia separation from ammonia/nitrogen/hydrogen mixtures in distributed green ammonia production plants. Using force-field-based molecular simulations, we evaluate the performance of bulk all-silica MFI zeolite and a 3 nm thick all-silica MFI nanosheet for ammonia/nitrogen/hydrogen separations at moderate temperature and pressure conditions (T = 373 K, p = 5 bar) as well as conditions relevant for a membrane-based reactor–separator process (T = 523 or 623 K, p = 80 bar). Isobaric–isothermal Gibbs ensemble Monte Carlo (GEMC) simulations were carried out to understand the selective adsorption behavior for these mixtures. Molecular dynamics simulations in the canonical ensemble were performed to examine the transport behavior of ammonia in a mixture with nitrogen or hydrogen at loadings obtained from the GEMC simulations. Our results show that both bulk MFI and the nanosheet with explicit surface silanols are highly selective toward ammonia adsorption, but the adsorption selectivity decreases by factors of 4 and 10 for ammonia/nitrogen and ammonia/hydrogen mixtures as the temperature is increased from 373 to 623 K. Conversely, the diffusion selectivities toward ammonia are more favorable at process-relevant temperatures and for the MFI nanosheet. Here, at T = 523 K and p = 80 bar, our simulations predict overall separation factors of 3.8 ± 0.2 and 4.5 ± 0.3 for ammonia/nitrogen and ammonia/hydrogen mixtures, respectively, in the bulk MFI zeolite, and separation factors of 8.6 ± 0.4 and 12.5 ± 0.8, respectively, for the MFI nanosheet.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Protein folding from heterogeneous unfolded state revealed by time-resolved X-ray solution scattering

One of the most challenging tasks in biological science is to understand how a protein folds. In theoretical studies, the hypothesis adopting a funnel-like free-energy landscape has been recognized as a prominent scheme for explaining protein folding in views of both internal energy and conformational heterogeneity of a protein. Despite numerous experimental efforts, however, comprehensively studying protein folding with respect to its global conformational changes in conjunction with the heterogeneity has been elusive. Here we investigate the redox-coupled folding dynamics of equine heart cytochrome c (cyt-c) induced by external electron injection by using time-resolved X-ray solution scattering. A systematic kinetic analysis unveils a kinetic model for its folding with a stretched exponential behavior during the transition toward the folded state. With the aid of the ensemble optimization method combined with molecular dynamics simulations, we found that during the folding the heterogeneously populated ensemble of the unfolded state is converted to a narrowly populated ensemble of folded conformations. These observations obtained from the kinetic and the structural analyses of X-ray scattering data reveal that the folding dynamics of cyt-c accompanies many parallel pathways associated with the heterogeneously populated ensemble of unfolded conformations, resulting in the stretched exponential kinetics at room temperature. This finding provides direct evidence with a view to microscopic protein conformations that the cyt-c folding initiates from a highly heterogeneous unfolded state, passes through still diverse intermediate structures, and reaches structural homogeneity by arriving at the folded state.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Co-scheduling Ensembles of In Situ Workflows

Molecular dynamics (MD) simulations are widely used to study large-scale molecular systems. HPC systems are ideal platforms to run these studies, however, reaching the necessary simulation timescale to detect rare processes is challenging, even with modern supercomputers. To overcome the timescale limitation, the simulation of a long MD trajectory is replaced by multiple short-range simulations that are executed simultaneously in an ensemble of simulations. Analyses are usually co-scheduled with these simulations to efficiently process large volumes of data generated by the simulations at runtime, thanks to in situ techniques. Executing a workflow ensemble of simulations and their in situ analyses requires efficient co- scheduling strategies and sophisticated management of computational resources so that they are not slowing down each other. In this paper, we propose an efficient method to co-schedule simulations and in situ analyses such that the makespan of the workflow ensemble is minimized. We present a novel approach to allocate resources for a workflow ensemble under resource constraints by using a theoretical framework modeling the workflow ensemble’s execution. We evaluate the proposed approach using an accurate simulator based on the WRENCH simulation framework on various workflow ensemble configurations. Results demonstrate the significance of co-scheduling simulations and in situ analyses that couple data together to benefit from data locality, in which inefficient scheduling decisions can lead to slowdown in makespan up to a factor of 30.

Do, Tu Mai Anh↗
DOE OSTI2023

A dynamic kinetic model captures cell-free metabolism for improved butanol production

Cell-free systems are useful tools for prototyping metabolic pathways and optimizing the production of various bioproducts. Mechanistically-based kinetic models are uniquely suited to analyze dynamic experimental data collected from cell-free systems and provide vital qualitative insight. However, to date, dynamic kinetic models have not been applied with rigorous biological constraints or trained on adequate experimental data to the degree that they would give high confidence in predictions and broadly demonstrate the potential for widespread use of such kinetic models. In this work, we construct a large-scale dynamic model of cell-free metabolism with the goal of understanding and optimizing butanol production in a cell-free system. Using a combination of parameterization methods, the resultant model captures experimental metabolite measurements across two experimental conditions for nine metabolites at timepoints between 0 and 24 hours. Here, we present analysis of the model predictions, provide recommendations for butanol optimization, and identify the aldehyde/alcohol dehydrogenase as the primary bottleneck in butanol production. Sensitivity analysis further reveals the extent to which various parameters are constrained, and our approach for probing valid parameter ranges can be applied to other modeling efforts.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗