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At least 127 records · Page 7

A Software/Hardware Framework for Efficient and Safe Emergency Response in Post-Crash Scenarios of Battery Electric Vehicles

The adoption rate of battery electric vehicles (EVs) is rapidly increasing. Electric vehicles differ significantly from conventional internal combustion engine vehicles and vary widely across different manufacturers. Emergency responders (ERs) and recovery personnel may have less experience with EVs and lack timely access to critical information such as the extent of the stranded energy present, high-voltage safety hazards, and post-crash handling procedures in a user-friendly manner. This paper presents a software/hardware interactive tool named Electric Vehicle Information for Incident Response Solutions (EVIRS) to aid in the quick access to emergency response and recovery information. The current prototype of EVIRS identifies EVs using the VIN or Make, Model, and Year, and offers several useful features for ERs and recovery personnel. These features include integration and easy access to emergency response procedures tailored to an identified EV, vehicle structural schematics, the quick identification of battery pack specifications, and more. For EVs that are not severely damaged, EVIRS can perform calculations to estimate stranded energy in the EV’s battery and discharge time for various power loads using either EV dashboard information or operational data accessed through the CAN interface. Knowledge of this information may be helpful in the post-crash handling, management, and storage of an EV. The functionality and accuracy of EVIRS were demonstrated through laboratory tests using a 2021 Ford Mach-E and associated data acquisition system. The results indicated that when the remaining driving range was used as an input, EVIRS was able to estimate the pack voltage with an error of less than 3 V. Conversely, when pack voltage was used as an input, the estimated state of charge (SOC) error was less than 5% within the range of 30–90% SOC. Additionally, other features, such as retrieving emergency response guides for identified EVs and accessing lessons learned from archived incidents, have been successfully demonstrated through EVIRS for quick access. EVIRS can be a valuable tool for emergency responders and recovery personnel, both in action and during offline training, by providing crucial information related to assessing EV/battery safety risks, appropriate handling, de-energizing, transport, and storage in an integrated and user-friendly manner.

25 ENERGY STORAGE

Optimal hybrid power plants for electric vehicle charging demand

Transmission constraints, increasing motivations to decarbonize, and concerns over peak electric vehicle (EV) load impacts on local grids have driven electric customers to consider behind-the-meter, hybrid power plant generation and storage at the distributed-grid level for EV charging. In this study, we develop capabilities to optimize hybrid power plant component capacities for EV charging. We then demonstrate these capabilities in a case study for Boulder, Colorado, using public EV charging data as well as wind and solar resource data. Our results show system designs that balance the cost of energy with load-meeting and peak shaving performance. Within the case study, systems designed for wind, solar photovoltaic (PV), and storage resulted in lower cost of energy than those optimized for PV and storage only. This indicates that in areas where wind resource exists, hybrid power plants that include wind, PV, and battery assets can better meet EV charging loads (including peak loads that are prone to overloading local grids) than PV and battery assets alone. Future work to address limitations in this paper include extending cost modeling to include performance losses (e.g., based on operations or weather) and charging station costs to estimate levelized cost of charging, and quantifying uncertainty and error in our aggregation methods for estimating EV charging loads at the hourly timescale.

14 SOLAR ENERGY

The Second Skin: A Wearable Sensor Suite that Enables Real-Time Human Biomechanics Tracking Through Deep Learning

Objective: Real-time determination of human kinematics and kinetics could advance biomechanics research and enable valuable applications of biofeedback and generalizable exoskeleton control. Here, this work aims to investigate a taskindependent, user-independent method for obtaining precise realtime joint state estimation across lower-body joints during a wide variety of tasks. Methods: We developed a generalizable sensing approach using a suit comprised of inertial measurement units (IMUs) and pressure insoles. With the suit, we collected a dataset of 33 tasks commonly performed during construction and hazardous waste cleanup (N = 10). We then trained deep learning user-independent, task-agnostic models to estimate joint lowerbody kinematics and dynamics using only worn sensor data. We likewise computed joint kinematics and dynamics analytically from sensor data to serve as a comparison tool for model results. Results: Our models achieved overall angle estimation root-meansquared-errors (RMSE) of 6.56±.92°, 8.60±1.01°, 7.58±.89°, and 6.00±.73° compared to 13.9±.1.3°, 15.31±1.0°, 10.76±.70°, and 7.56±.48° via analytical methods at the lower back, hip, knee, and ankle, respectively. Likewise, our models achieved overall normalized moment estimation RMSEs of .207±.069 Nm/kg, .242±.044 Nm/kg, .202±.038 Nm/kg, and .193±.034 Nm/kg compared to .306±.036 Nm/kg, .407±.021 Nm/kg, 1.18 ±.022 Nm/kg, and 1.73±.071 Nm/kg via analytical methods at the lower back, hip, knee, and ankle, respectively. Conclusion: These results are comparable to other state-of-the-art wearable sensing systems, establishing deep learning as a viable sensing approach that generalizes to new users and tasks. Significance: This work shows promise for enabling accurate real-world biomechanical data collection and enhancement of biofeedback systems and wearable robot control.

Casey, Ryan T. F. [Georgia Institute of Technology

Bayesian Inference for the Seismic Moment Tensor Using Regional Waveforms and Teleseismic- P Polarities with a Data-Derived Distribution of Velocity Models and Source Locations

The largest source of uncertainty in any source inversion is the velocity model used in the transfer function that relates observed ground motion to the seismic moment tensor. However, standard inverse procedure often does not quantify uncertainty in the seismic moment tensor due to error in the Green’s functions from uncertain event location and Earth structure. Here, we incorporate this uncertainty into an estimation of the seismic moment tensor using a data-derived distribution of velocity models based on complementary geophysical data sets, including thickness constraints, velocity profiles, gravity data, surface-wave group velocities, and regional body-wave travel times. The data-derived distribution of velocity models is then used as a prior distribution of Green’s functions for use in Bayesian inference of an unknown seismic moment tensor using regional and teleseismic-P waveforms. The use of multiple data sets is important for gaining resolution to different components of the moment tensor. The combined likelihood is estimated using data-specific error models and the posterior of the seismic moment tensor is estimated and interpreted in terms of the most probable source type.

58 GEOSCIENCES

Real-time estimators for scattering observables: A full account of finite-volume errors for quantum simulation

The real-time correlators of quantum field theories can be directly probed through new approaches to simulation, such as quantum computing and tensor networks. This provides a new framework for computing scattering observables in lattice formulations of strongly interacting theories, such as lattice quantum chromodynamics. In this paper, we prove that the proposal of real-time estimators of scattering observables is universally applicable to all scattering observables of gapped quantum field theories. All finite-volume errors are exponentially suppressed, and the rate of this suppression is controlled by the regulator considered, namely, a displacement of the spectrum of the theory into the complex plane. A partial restoration of Lorentz symmetry by averaging over different boosts gives an additional suppression of finite volume errors. Our results also apply to the simulation of wave packet scattering, where a similar averaging is performed to construct the wave packets that regulate the finite volume effects. This result represents a necessary key step toward determining a broad class of scattering observables via quantum computing that are currently inaccessible via classical computing. Such observables are relevant for various applications, including hadron spectroscopy, hadron structure, and precision tests of the Standard Model. We also comment on potential applications of our results to traditional computational schemes.

Burbano, Ivan M. [University of California, Berkel

Correcting for Selection Biases in the Determination of the Hubble Constant from Time-Delay Cosmography

The time delay between multiple images of strongly lensed quasars has been used to infer the Hubble constant. The primary systematic uncertainty for time-delay cosmography is the mass-sheet transform (MST), which preserves the lensing observables while altering the inferred ⁠H 0 . The TDCOSMO collaboration used velocity dispersion measurements of lensed quasars and lensed galaxies to infer that mass sheets are present, which decrease the inferred H 0 by 8 per cent. Here, we test the assumption that the density profiles of galaxy–galaxy and galaxy–quasar lenses are the same. We use a composite star-plus-dark-matter mass profile for the parent deflector population and model the selection function for galaxy–galaxy and galaxy–quasar lenses. We find that a power-law density profile with an MST is a good approximation to a two-component mass profile around the Einstein radius, but we find that galaxy–galaxy lenses have systematically higher mass-sheet components than galaxy–quasar lenses. For individual systems, λ int correlates with the ratio of the half-light radius and Einstein radius of the lens. By propagating these results through the TDCOSMO hierarchical inference code, we find that H 0 is lowered by a further 3 per cent. Using a more recent measurement of velocity dispersions and our fiducial model for selection biases, we infer H 0 = 66 ± 4 (stat) ± 1 (model sys) ± 2 (measurement sys) km s -1 Mpc -1 for the TDCOSMO plus SLACS data set. The first residual systematic error is due to plausible alternative choices in modelling the selection function, and the second is an estimate of the remaining systematic error in the measurement of velocity dispersions for SLACS lenses. Accurate time-delay cosmography requires precise velocity dispersion measurements and accurate calibration of selection biases.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS

Q-Cluster: Quantum Error Mitigation Through Noise-Aware Unsupervised Learning

Quantum error mitigation (QEM) is critical in reducing the impact of noise in the pre-fault-tolerant era, and is expected to complement error correction in fault-tolerant quantum computing (FTQC). In this work, we propose a novel QEM approach, Q-Cluster, that uses unsupervised learning (clustering) to reshape the measured bit-string distribution. Our approach starts with a simplified bit-flip noise model. It first performs clustering on noisy measurement results, i.e., bit-strings, based on the Hamming distance. The centroid of each cluster is calculated using a qubit-wise majority vote. Next, the noisy distribution is adjusted with the clustering outcomes and the bitflip error rates using Bayesian inference. Our simulation results show that Q-Cluster can mitigate high noise rates (up to 40% per qubit) with the simple bit-flip noise model. However, real quantum computers do not fit such a simple noise model. To address the problem, we (a) apply Pauli twirling to tailor the complex noise channels to Pauli errors, and (b) employ a machine learning model, ExtraTrees regressor, to estimate an effective bit-flip error rate using a feature vector consisting of machine calibration data (gate & measurement error rates), circuit features (number of qubits, numbers of different types of gates, etc.) and the shape of the noisy distribution (entropy). Our experimental results show that our proposed Q-Cluster scheme improves the fidelity by a factor of 1.46x, on average, compared to the unmitigated output distribution, for a set of low-entropy benchmarks on five different IBM quantum machines. Our approach outperforms the state-of-art QEM approaches RZNE [28], M3 [24], Hammer [35], and QBEEP [33] by 1.26x,1.29x,1.47x, and 2.65 x, respectively.

42 ENGINEERING

Light in the dark forest. Part I. An efficient optimal estimator for 3D Lyman-alpha forest power spectrum

The highly anisotropic nature of the Lyman-alpha (Lyα) forest data introduces a complex survey window function that complicates the measurement of the three-dimensional power spectrum ( P 3D ). In this paper, we present the first fully optimal estimator for P 3D , which exactly deconvolves the survey window function and marginalizes contaminated modes that distort the power spectrum. Our approach adapts optimal estimator techniques developed for the 2D cosmic microwave background data to the 3D case. To achieve computational feasibility, we employ the conjugate gradient method and implement the P 3 M formalism to handle large-scale and small-scale operations separately and efficiently. We validate our estimator using Monte Carlo mocks and Gaussian simulations, demonstrating its accuracy and computational efficiency. We confirm that mode marginalization eliminates distortions arising from quasar continuum errors and delivers robust power spectrum estimation, though it also inflates errors at large scales. This first implementation works in the flat-sky case; we discuss the remaining steps needed to generalize it to the curved-sky case. This formalism offers a foundation for the Lyα forest P 3D measurements and a new path toward cosmological constraints from the Lyα forest data.

Lyman alpha forest

Data Generation for Machine Learning Interatomic Potentials and Beyond

The field of data-driven chemistry is undergoing an evolution, driven by innovations in machine learning models for predicting molecular properties and behavior. Recent strides in ML-based interatomic potentials have paved the way for accurate modeling of diverse chemical and structural properties at the atomic level. The key determinant defining MLIP reliability remains the quality of the training data. A paramount challenge lies in constructing training sets that capture specific domains in the vast chemical and structural space. This Review navigates the intricate landscape of essential components and integrity of training data that ensure the extensibility and transferability of the resulting models. We delve into the details of active learning, discussing its various facets and implementations. We outline different types of uncertainty quantification applied to atomistic data acquisition and the correlations between estimated uncertainty and true error. The role of atomistic data samplers in generating diverse and informative structures is highlighted. Furthermore, we discuss data acquisition via modified and surrogate potential energy surfaces as an innovative approach to diversify training data. The Review also provides a list of publicly available data sets that cover essential domains of chemical space.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH

Bayesian analysis of nucleon-nucleon scattering data in pionless effective field theory

We perform Bayesian model calibration of two-nucleon (NN) low-energy constants (LECs) appearing in an NN interaction based on pionless effective field theory (πEFT). The calibration is carried out for potentials constructed using naive dimensional analysis in NN relative momenta (p) up to next-to-leading order [NLO, O(p 2 )] and next-to-next-to-next-to-leading order [N3LO, O(p 4 )]. We consider two classes of pionless πEFT potential: one that acts in all partial waves and another that is dominated by s-wave physics. The two classes produce broadly similar results for calibrations to NN data up to E lab = 5 MeV. Our analysis accounts for the correlated uncertainties that arise from the truncation of the pionless πEFT. We simultaneously estimate both the πEFT LECs and the parameters that quantify the truncation error. This permits the first quantitative estimates of the pionless πEFT breakdown scale, Λ b : the 95% intervals are Λ b ∈[50.11,63.03] MeV at NLO and Λ b ∈[72.27,88.54] MeV at N3LO. Furthermore, invoking naive dimensional analysis for the NN potential, therefore, does not lead to consistent results across orders in pionless πEFT. This exemplifies the possible use of Bayesian tools to identify inconsistencies in a proposed EFT power counting.

Bayesian methods

Partnership Center for High-Fidelity Boundary Plasma Simulation (Final Report)

Within the Partnership Center for High-Fidelity Boundary Plasma Simulation (HBPS), work at UT-Austin was aimed at improved verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification (VVUQ) for edge plasma simulations and on performing gyrokinetics simulations of pedestal instabilities and turbulence in order to expand foundational understanding of pedestal transport. Regarding VVUQ, the accomplishments can be summarized as follows. First, it was shown that the Moment Preserving Constrained Resampling technique, when applied periodically in particle-in-cell simulations in the XGC code, can dramatically improve the accuracy of the simulation at essentially equivalent computational cost. Second, a technique for estimating model correlations, which are required to solve the model selection and sample allocation problem in multifidelity UQ techniques, without sampling the highest fidelity, most computationally expensive model, was developed and demonstrated. Third, previously developed methods for estimating statistical and discretization errors were applied to numerical methods relevant to edge plasma simulations, namely in particle-in-cell-based approaches, and shown to work. Finally, benchmark studies for comparing gyrokinetic codes were developed and performed, leading to reasonable agreement between four commonly used codes. Regarding physics studies, gyrokinetic simulations to investigate microtearing modes in the DIII-D pedestal were performed using the GENE code.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY

Analysis of the Trusted Inertial Terrain-Aided Navigation Measurement Function

The trusted inertial terrain-aided navigation (TITAN) algorithm leverages an airborne vertical synthetic aperture radar to measure the range to the closest ground points along several prescribed iso-Doppler contours. These TITAN minimum-range, prescribed-Doppler measurements are the result of a constrained nonlinear optimization problem whose optimization function and constraints both depend on the radar position and velocity. Owing to the complexity of this measurement definition, analysis of the TITAN algorithm is lacking in prior work. This publication offers such an analysis, making the following three contributions: (1) an analytical solution to the TITAN constrained optimization measurement problem, (2) a derivation of the TITAN measurement function Jacobian, and (3) a derivation of the Cramér-Rao lower bound on the estimated position and velocity error covariance. These three contributions are verified via Monte Carlo simulations over synthetic terrain, which further reveal two remarkable properties of the TITAN algorithm: (1) the along-track positioning errors tend to be smaller than the cross-track positioning errors, and (2) the cross-track positioning errors are independent of the terrain roughness.

TITAN

Impact of Systematic Modeling Uncertainties on Kilonova Property Estimation

The precise atomic structure and therefore the wavelength-dependent opacities of lanthanides are highly uncertain. This uncertainty introduces systematic errors in modeling transients like kilonovae and estimating key properties such as mass, characteristic velocity, and heavy metal content. Here, we quantify how atomic data from across the literature as well as choices of thermalization efficiency of r-process radioactive decay heating impact the light curve and spectra of kilonovae. Specifically, we analyze the spectra of a grid of models produced by the radiative transfer code Sedona that span the expected range of kilonova properties to identify regions with the highest systematic uncertainty. Our findings indicate that differences in atomic data have a substantial impact on estimates of lanthanide mass fraction, spanning approximately 1 order of magnitude for lanthanide-rich ejecta, and demonstrate the difficulty in precisely measuring the lanthanide fraction in lanthanide-poor ejecta. Mass estimates vary typically by 25%–40% for differing atomic data. Similarly, the choice of thermalization efficiency can affect mass estimates by 20%–50%. Observational properties such as color and decay rate are highly model dependent. Velocity estimation, when fitting solely based on the light curve, can have a typical error of ∼100%. Atomic data of light r-process elements can strongly affect blue emission. Even for well-observed events like GW170817, the total lanthanide production estimated using different atomic data sets can vary by a factor of ∼6.

Gravitational wave sources

Physics-based hybrid machine learning for critical heat flux prediction with uncertainty quantification

Critical heat flux (CHF) is a key quantity in nuclear system modeling due to its impact on heat transfer, safety margins, and reactor performance. This study develops and validates an uncertainty-aware hybrid modeling approach that combines machine learning with physics-based models to predict CHF in cases of dryout. The Biasi and Bowring empirical correlations were paired with three ML uncertainty quantification (UQ) techniques: deep neural network (DNN) ensembles, Bayesian neural networks (BNNs), and deep Gaussian processes (DGPs). A pure ML model without a base model was evaluated for comparison. Model performance was assessed under plentiful (7,350 points) and limited (9 points) training data scenarios using parity, uncertainty distributions, and calibration curves. Results show that the Biasi hybrid DNN ensemble achieved the best overall performance, with a mean absolute relative error of 1.846%, and well-calibrated uncertainty estimates. The BNN-based hybrids showed slightly higher error (2.14%) but superior uncertainty calibration. DGP models underperformed, with over 6% error and poor uncertainty calibration. All hybrid models outperformed pure machine learning configurations, demonstrating resistance against data scarcity. These findings indicate that hybrid modeling significantly improves predictive accuracy, interpretability, and resilience to data scarcity. The integration of uncertainty awareness provides actionable confidence in CHF predictions, which is vital for safety-critical decisions in nuclear applications. This hybrid approach offers a viable pathway for deploying ML models in reactor analysis tools while preserving domain knowledge and physical consistency.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS

2025 Review and Revision of Federal Guidance Report 15

Federal Guidance Report No. 15 (FGR 15), External Exposure to Radionuclides in Air, Water and Soil, published in 2019 and referred to below as FGR 2019, provides age-specific effective dose rate coefficients for reference persons externally exposed to each of 1252 radionuclides homogenously distributed in environmental media. Soon after completion of FGR 2019, the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) published a similar report (ICRP Publication 144, 2020) addressing the same radionuclides and many of the external exposure scenarios addressed in FGR 2019. In 2023 Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) published a review of dose coefficients in FGR 2019, concluding that “The external effective dose from beta radiation is not appropriately accounted for in FGR 15 for both low- and high-energy beta emitters in air, in soil, and on soil surfaces.” That conclusion was based largely on comparisons of dose coefficients in FGR 2019 with values in ICRP Publication 144 but also on consideration of some unexpected patterns of equivalent dose rate coefficients across tissues and of effective dose rate coefficients across different soil depths, for a selected set of low-energy beta emitters. In response to the ANL report, the Center for Radiation Protection Knowledge (CRPK) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) performed an extensive reexamination of the methods and published values of FGR 2019. CRPK found that coding errors had resulted in inaccurate estimates, primarily overestimates, in many of the dose coefficients tabulated in FGR 2019 but that many of the differences between results in FGR 2019 and ICRP Publication 144 could be traced to differences in methodology. CRPK has corrected all errors in FGR 2019 associated with the coding errors and has taken the opportunity to improve a major portion of the remaining dose coefficients in FGR 2019, primarily through additional Monte Carlo calculations resulting in improved statistics for tissue equivalent dose rate coefficients for exposure to monoenergetic sources. This has eliminated the need for extrapolation of results from high and medium energies to low energies, as was done in FGR 2019. In addition, inconsistencies in the methodology identified in the review, such as computational representation of the adult female, were eliminated. The revised effective dose rate coefficients are consistent with values in ICRP Publication 144 except for differences in values clearly arising from differences in methodology; and differences in values for a relatively small set of very low-energy radionuclides with highly uncertain dose coefficients regardless of methodology.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Nondegenerate Noise-Resilient Superconducting Qubit

We propose a superconducting qubit based on engineering the first and second harmonics of the Josephson energy and phase relation 𝐸 𝐽⁢1 ⁢cos 𝜑 and 𝐸 𝐽⁢2 ⁢cos 2⁢𝜑. By constructing a circuit such that 𝐸 𝐽⁢2 is negative and |𝐸 𝐽⁢1 | ≪ |𝐸 𝐽⁢2 |, we create a periodic potential with two nondegenerate minima. The qubit, which we dub “harmonium,” is formed from the lowest-energy states of each minimum. Bit-flip protection of the qubit arises due to the localization of each qubit state to their respective minima, while phase-flip protection can be understood by considering the circuit within the Born-Oppenheimer approximation. We demonstrate with time-domain simulations that single- and two-qubit gates can be performed in approximately 100 ns. Finally, we compute the qubit coherence times using numerical diagonalization of the complete circuit in conjunction with state-of-the-art noise models. We estimate out-of-manifold heating times on the order of milliseconds, which can be treated as erasure errors using conventional dispersive readout. We estimate pure-dephasing times on the order of many tens of milliseconds, and bit-flip times on the order of seconds.

quantum error correction

Deep Learning Reconstruction of Daily Soil CO 2 Efflux Reveals Biogeochemical Insights and Reduces Annual Estimate Uncertainty Despite Limited Daily Predictability

Soil CO 2 efflux is commonly measured monthly or seasonally, leaving daily dynamics poorly resolved and contributing to global estimation uncertainty. We trained a single Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model to predict daily soil CO 2 efflux across 82 globally distributed sites in COSORE, with 0.2%–46.9% daily data coverage from 2003 to 2020. Despite using far fewer sites than are typically used to train a single deep learning model, with observations biased toward temperate mesic sites, the LSTM model performed well at approximately one-third of sites, reconstructed nearly 2 decades of daily efflux, and outperformed commonly used approaches for estimating daily efflux when applied to the same data set. Performance was weakest at pronounced peaks and troughs and at non-temperate sites with <1.5 years of observations and irregular data patterns. Nevertheless, annual efflux from reconstructed daily data had <40% error even at underperforming sites, substantially improving estimates derived from monthly and seasonal sampling (maximum errors of 95% and 136%, respectively). Temperature sensitivity (Q 10 ) estimated from reconstructed daily predictions closely matched estimates from daily observations, whereas Q 10 values derived from monthly or seasonal observations deviated substantially, suggesting that coarse temporal sampling may contribute to uncertainty in reported Q 10 values. Consistent daily reconstructions further enabled trend analyses for well-performing, predominantly temperate sites and showed increasing soil CO 2 efflux at most sites from 2003 to 2020, with more variable summer trends. Despite limitations, these results demonstrate the potential of LSTM models to reconstruct daily soil CO 2 efflux and reduce estimation uncertainties from sparse observations.

Smykalov, Valerie [Pennsylvania State University,

Hierarchical Bayesian Inverse Problems: A High-Dimensional Statistics Viewpoint

This paper analyzes hierarchical Bayesian inverse problems using techniques from highdimensional statistics. Furthermore, our analysis leverages a property of hierarchical Bayesian regularizers that we call approximate decomposability to obtain non-asymptotic bounds on the reconstruction error attained by maximum a posteriori estimators. The new theory explains how hierarchical Bayesian models that exploit sparsity, group sparsity, and sparse representations of the unknown parameter can achieve accurate reconstructions in high-dimensional settings.

MAP estimation