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At least 127 records · Page 7

Blind Validation Study of Parametric Cost Estimation Tool SEER-H for NASA Space Missions

One of the primary parametric cost modeling tools used by NASA and the aerospace industry to estimate the development and production cost of future spacecraft hardware is SEER-H by Galorath. To date, no independent validation of this tool for cost estimation of space missions has been reported in the literature. In the present validation study, cost estimators used SEER-H to estimate the cost of twelve different past NASA science missions. The estimators were prevented from knowing the actual cost of the missions in an effort to minimize cognitive biases. The point estimates of SEER-H had an average error of 23%, median error of -0.3%, and a standard deviation of 43%. Nine of the twelve mission's actual costs fell within the 80% confidence interval of SEER's probabilistic estimates. Several factors independent of SEER that may have affected the accuracy of the results have been identified and are discussed; these include: uncertainty in the technical data used for the estimates, the methods used to estimate uncertainty in spacecraft component mass and numbers of prototypes, and the experience of the estimators.

SEER-H↗

Biomass Estimation from Simulated GEDI, ICESat-2 and NISAR Across Environmental Gradients in Sonoma County, California

Estimates of the magnitude and distribution of aboveground carbon in Earth’s forests remain uncertain, yet knowledge of forest carbon content at a global scale is critical for forest management in support of climate mitigation. In light of this knowledge gap, several upcoming spaceborne missions aim to map forest aboveground biomass, and many new biomass products are expected from these datasets. As these new missions host different technologies, each with relative strengths and weaknesses for biomass retrieval, as well as different spatial resolutions, consistently comparing or combining biomass estimates from these new datasets will be challenging. This paper presents a demonstration of an inter-comparison of biomass estimates from simulations of three NASA missions (GEDI, ICESat-2 and NISAR) over Sonoma county in California, USA. We use a high resolution, locally calibrated airborne lidar map as our reference dataset, and emphasize the importance of considering uncertainties in both reference maps and spaceborne estimates when conducting biomass product validation. GEDI and ICESat-2 were simulated from airborne lidar point clouds, while UAVSAR’s L-band backscatter was used as a proxy for NISAR. To estimate biomass for the lidar missions we used GEDI’s footprint-level biomass algorithms, and also adapted these for application to ICESat-2. For UAVSAR, we developed a locally trained biomass model, calibrated against the ALS reference map. Each mission simulation was evaluated in comparison to the local reference map at its native product resolution (25 m, 100m transect, and 1 ha) yielding RMSEs of 57%, 75%, and 89% for GEDI, NISAR, and ICESat-2 respectively. RMSE values increased for GEDI’s power beam during simulated daytime conditions (64%), coverage beam during nighttime conditions (72%), and coverage beam daytime conditions (87%). We also test the application of GEDI’s biomass modeling framework for estimation of biomass from ICESat-2, and fine that ICESat-2 yields reasonable biomass estimates, particularly in relatively short, open canopies. Results suggest that while all three missions will produce datasets useful for biomass mapping, tall, dense canopies such as those found in Sonoma County present the greatest challenges for all three missions, while steep slopes also prove challenging for single-date SAR based biomass retrieval. Our methods provide guidance for the inter-comparison and validation of spaceborne biomass estimates through the use of airborne lidar reference maps, and could be repeated with on-orbit estimates in any area with high quality field plot and ALS data. These methods allow for regional interpretations and filtering of multi-mission biomass estimates toward improved wall-to-wall biomass maps through data fusion.

GEDI↗

Comparison of Global Aboveground Biomass Estimates From Satellite Observations and Dynamic Global Vegetation Models

The global forest carbon stocks represent the amount of carbon stored in woody vegetation and are important for quantifying the ability of the global forests to sequester atmospheric CO 2 and to provide ecosystem services (e.g., timber) under climate change. The forest ecosystem carbon pool estimates are highly variable and poorly quantified in areas lacking forest inventory estimates. Here, we compare and analyze aboveground biomass (AGB) estimates from five satellite-based global data sets and nine dynamic global vegetation models (DVGMs). We find that across the data sets, mean AGB exhibits the largest variability around the tropical area. In addition, AGB shows a similar latitudinal trend but large variability among the data sets. Satellite-based AGB estimates are lower than those simulated by DVGMs. The divergence among the satellite-based AGB estimates can be driven by the methodology, input satellite products, and the forested areas used to estimate AGB. The modeled NPP, autotrophic respiration, and carbon allocation mostly drive the variability of AGB simulated by DGVMs. The future availability of a high-quality global forest area map is anticipated to improve AGB estimate accuracy and to reduce the discrepancies among different satellite- and model-based AGB estimates. Furthermore, we suggest the carbon-modeling community reexamine the methodology used to estimate AGB and forested areas for a more robust global forest carbon stock estimation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Maximum Likelihood Estimation with Emphasis on Aircraft Flight Data

Accurate modeling of flexible space structures is an important field that is currently under investigation. Parameter estimation, using methods such as maximum likelihood, is one of the ways that the model can be improved. The maximum likelihood estimator has been used to extract stability and control derivatives from flight data for many years. Most of the literature on aircraft estimation concentrates on new developments and applications, assuming familiarity with basic estimation concepts. Some of these basic concepts are presented. The maximum likelihood estimator and the aircraft equations of motion that the estimator uses are briefly discussed. The basic concepts of minimization and estimation are examined for a simple computed aircraft example. The cost functions that are to be minimized during estimation are defined and discussed. Graphic representations of the cost functions are given to help illustrate the minimization process. Finally, the basic concepts are generalized, and estimation from flight data is discussed. Specific examples of estimation of structural dynamics are included. Some of the major conclusions for the computed example are also developed for the analysis of flight data.

Iliff, K. W.↗

Order reduction in linear state estimation under performance constraints

The design and analysis of minimal-order state estimators for possibly time-varying linear systems, under constraints on the maximal allowable mean-square error, are considered. A global lower bound on the optimal error is derived, along with a lower bound on the minimal estimator order, needed for meeting the performance constraint. The ideal reduced-order estimator which satisfies the lower bound is derived, along with conditions for its realizability. When the ideal estimator is not realizable, its structure forms a suboptimal estimator, which maintains, in some sense, a local optimality property and is called the pseudoideal estimator. The mean-square error of the pseudoideal estimator defines upper bounds on the optimal error and on the estimator order needed for meeting the performance constraint. The lower and the upper bounds on the order define a reduced search set for the design problem. When the distance between the ideal and the pseudoideal estimators is sufficiently small in a certain numerical sense, the pseudoideal estimator may be considered optimal for practical purposes.

Baram, Yoram↗

A novel multistage estimation of signal parameters

A multistage estimation scheme is presented for estimating the parameters of a received carrier signal possibly phase-modulated by unknown data and experiencing very high Doppler, Doppler rate, etc. Such a situation arises, for example, in the case of the Global Positioning Systems (GPS). In the proposed scheme, the first-stage estimator operates as a coarse estimator of the frequency and its derivatives, resulting in higher rms estimation errors but with a relatively small probability of the frequency estimation error exceeding one-half of the sampling frequency (an event termed cycle slip). The second stage of the estimator operates on the error signal available from the first stage, refining the overall estimates, and in the process also reduces the number of cycle slips. The first-stage algorithm is a modified least-squares algorithm operating on the differential signal model and referred to as differential least squares (DLS). The second-stage algorithm is an extended Kalman filter, which yields the estimate of the phase as well as refining the frequency estimate. A major advantage of the is a reduction in the threshold for the received carrier power-to-noise power spectral density ratio (CNR) as compared with the threshold achievable by either of the algorithms alone.

Kumar, Rajendra↗

Associated with aerospace vehicles development of methodologies for the estimation of thermal properties

Thermal stress analyses are an important aspect in the development of aerospace vehicles at NASA-LaRC. These analyses require knowledge of the temperature distributions within the vehicle structures which consequently necessitates the need for accurate thermal property data. The overall goal of this ongoing research effort is to develop methodologies for the estimation of the thermal property data needed to describe the temperature responses of these complex structures. The research strategy undertaken utilizes a building block approach. The idea here is to first focus on the development of property estimation methodologies for relatively simple conditions, such as isotropic materials at constant temperatures, and then systematically modify the technique for the analysis of more and more complex systems, such as anisotropic multi-component systems. The estimation methodology utilized is a statistically based method which incorporates experimental data and a mathematical model of the system. Several aspects of this overall research effort were investigated during the time of the ASEE summer program. One important aspect involved the calibration of the estimation procedure for the estimation of the thermal properties through the thickness of a standard material. Transient experiments were conducted using a Pyrex standard at various temperatures, and then the thermal properties (thermal conductivity and volumetric heat capacity) were estimated at each temperature. Confidence regions for the estimated values were also determined. These results were then compared to documented values. Another set of experimental tests were conducted on carbon composite samples at different temperatures. Again, the thermal properties were estimated for each temperature, and the results were compared with values obtained using another technique. In both sets of experiments, a 10-15 percent off-set between the estimated values and the previously determined values was found. Another effort was related to the development of the experimental techniques. Initial experiments required a resistance heater placed between two samples. The design was modified such that the heater was placed on the surface of only one sample, as would be necessary in the analysis of built up structures. Experiments using the modified technique were conducted on the composite sample used previously at different temperatures. The results were within 5 percent of those found using two samples. Finally, an initial heat transfer analysis, including conduction, convection and radiation components, was completed on a titanium sandwich structural sample. Experiments utilizing this sample are currently being designed and will be used to first estimate the material's effective thermal conductivity and later to determine the properties associated with each individual heat transfer component.

Scott, Elaine P.↗

Adaptive Error Estimation in Linearized Ocean General Circulation Models

Data assimilation methods are routinely used in oceanography. The statistics of the model and measurement errors need to be specified a priori. This study addresses the problem of estimating model and measurement error statistics from observations. We start by testing innovation based methods of adaptive error estimation with low-dimensional models in the North Pacific (5-60 deg N, 132-252 deg E) to TOPEX/POSEIDON (TIP) sea level anomaly data, acoustic tomography data from the ATOC project, and the MIT General Circulation Model (GCM). A reduced state linear model that describes large scale internal (baroclinic) error dynamics is used. The methods are shown to be sensitive to the initial guess for the error statistics and the type of observations. A new off-line approach is developed, the covariance matching approach (CMA), where covariance matrices of model-data residuals are "matched" to their theoretical expectations using familiar least squares methods. This method uses observations directly instead of the innovations sequence and is shown to be related to the MT method and the method of Fu et al. (1993). Twin experiments using the same linearized MIT GCM suggest that altimetric data are ill-suited to the estimation of internal GCM errors, but that such estimates can in theory be obtained using acoustic data. The CMA is then applied to T/P sea level anomaly data and a linearization of a global GFDL GCM which uses two vertical modes. We show that the CMA method can be used with a global model and a global data set, and that the estimates of the error statistics are robust. We show that the fraction of the GCM-T/P residual variance explained by the model error is larger than that derived in Fukumori et al.(1999) with the method of Fu et al.(1993). Most of the model error is explained by the barotropic mode. However, we find that impact of the change in the error statistics on the data assimilation estimates is very small. This is explained by the large representation error, i.e. the dominance of the mesoscale eddies in the T/P signal, which are not part of the 21 by 1" GCM. Therefore, the impact of the observations on the assimilation is very small even after the adjustment of the error statistics. This work demonstrates that simult&neous estimation of the model and measurement error statistics for data assimilation with global ocean data sets and linearized GCMs is possible. However, the error covariance estimation problem is in general highly underdetermined, much more so than the state estimation problem. In other words there exist a very large number of statistical models that can be made consistent with the available data. Therefore, methods for obtaining quantitative error estimates, powerful though they may be, cannot replace physical insight. Used in the right context, as a tool for guiding the choice of a small number of model error parameters, covariance matching can be a useful addition to the repertory of tools available to oceanographers.

Chechelnitsky, Michael Y.↗

Statistical Properties of Maximum Likelihood Estimators of Power Law Spectra Information

A simple power law model consisting of a single spectral index, sigma(sub 2), is believed to be an adequate description of the galactic cosmic-ray (GCR) proton flux at energies below 10(exp 13) eV, with a transition at the knee energy, E(sub k), to a steeper spectral index sigma(sub 2) greater than sigma(sub 1) above E(sub k). The maximum likelihood (ML) procedure was developed for estimating the single parameter sigma(sub 1) of a simple power law energy spectrum and generalized to estimate the three spectral parameters of the broken power law energy spectrum from simulated detector responses and real cosmic-ray data. The statistical properties of the ML estimator were investigated and shown to have the three desirable properties: (Pl) consistency (asymptotically unbiased), (P2) efficiency (asymptotically attains the Cramer-Rao minimum variance bound), and (P3) asymptotically normally distributed, under a wide range of potential detector response functions. Attainment of these properties necessarily implies that the ML estimation procedure provides the best unbiased estimator possible. While simulation studies can easily determine if a given estimation procedure provides an unbiased estimate of the spectra information, and whether or not the estimator is approximately normally distributed, attainment of the Cramer-Rao bound (CRB) can only be ascertained by calculating the CRB for an assumed energy spectrum- detector response function combination, which can be quite formidable in practice. However, the effort in calculating the CRB is very worthwhile because it provides the necessary means to compare the efficiency of competing estimation techniques and, furthermore, provides a stopping rule in the search for the best unbiased estimator. Consequently, the CRB for both the simple and broken power law energy spectra are derived herein and the conditions under which they are stained in practice are investigated.

Howell, L. W., Jr.↗

Comparison of GPCP Monthly and Daily Precipitation Estimates with High-Latitude Gauge Observations

It is very important to know how much rain and snow falls around the world for uses that range from crop forecasting to disaster response, drought monitoring to flood forecasting, and weather analysis to climate research. Precipitation is usually measured with rain gauges, but rain gauges don t exist in areas that are sparsely populated, which tends to be a good portion of the globe. To overcome this, meteorologists use satellite data to estimate global precipitation. However, it is difficult to estimate rain and especially snow in cold climates using most current satellites. The satellite sensors are often "confused" by a snowy or frozen surface and therefore cannot distinguish precipitation. One commonly used satellite-based precipitation data set, the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) data, overcomes this frozen-surface problem through the innovative use of two sources of satellite data, the Television Infrared Observation Satellite Operational Vertical Sounder (TOVS) and the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS). Though the GPCP estimates are generally considered a very reliable source of precipitation, it has been difficult to assess the quality of these estimates in cold climates due to the lack of gauges. Recently, the Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI) has provided a 12-year span of high-quality daily rain gauge observations, covering all of Finland, that can be used to compare with the GPCP data to determine how well the satellites estimate cold-climate precipitation. Comparison of the monthly GPCP satellite-based estimates and the FMI gauge observations shows remarkably good agreement, with the GPCP estimates being 6% lower in the amount of precipitation than the FMI observations. Furthermore, the month-to-month correlation between the GPCP and FMI is very high at 0.95 (1.0 is perfect). The daily GPCP estimates replicate the FMI daily occurrences of precipitation with a correlation of 0.55 in the summer and 0.45 in the winter. The winter result indicates the GPCP estimates have skill in "seeing" snowfall, which is the most challenging situation. Thus, the GPCP data set successfully overcomes a current limitation in satellite meteorology, namely the estimation of cold-climate precipitation. The success of the GPCP data set bodes well for future missions, whose instrumentation is specifically designed to give even more information for addressing cold-climate precipitation.

Bolvin, David T.↗

Overview and Assessment of Antarctic Ice-Sheet Mass Balance Estimates: 1992-2009

Mass balance estimates for the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) in the 2007 report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and in more recent reports lie between approximately ?50 to -250 Gt/year for 1992 to 2009. The 300 Gt/year range is approximately 15% of the annual mass input and 0.8 mm/year Sea Level Equivalent (SLE). Two estimates from radar altimeter measurements of elevation change by European Remote-sensing Satellites (ERS) (?28 and -31 Gt/year) lie in the upper part, whereas estimates from the Input-minus-Output Method (IOM) and the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) lie in the lower part (-40 to -246 Gt/year). We compare the various estimates, discuss the methodology used, and critically assess the results. We also modify the IOM estimate using (1) an alternate extrapolation to estimate the discharge from the non-observed 15% of the periphery, and (2) substitution of input from a field data compilation for input from an atmospheric model in 6% of area. The modified IOM estimate reduces the loss from 136 Gt/year to 13 Gt/year. Two ERS-based estimates, the modified IOM, and a GRACE-based estimate for observations within 1992 2005 lie in a narrowed range of ?27 to -40 Gt/year, which is about 3% of the annual mass input and only 0.2 mm/year SLE. Our preferred estimate for 1992 2001 is -47 Gt/year for West Antarctica, ?16 Gt/year for East Antarctica, and -31 Gt/year overall (?0.1 mm/year SLE), not including part of the Antarctic Peninsula (1.07% of the AIS area). Although recent reports of large and increasing rates of mass loss with time from GRACE-based studies cite agreement with IOM results, our evaluation does not support that conclusion

Zwally, H. Jay↗

Atmospheric Turbulence Estimates from a Pulsed Lidar

Estimates of the eddy dissipation rate (EDR) were obtained from measurements made by a coherent pulsed lidar and compared with estimates from mesoscale model simulations and measurements from an in situ sonic anemometer at the Denver International Airport and with EDR estimates from the last observation time of the trailing vortex pair. The estimates of EDR from the lidar were obtained using two different methodologies. The two methodologies show consistent estimates of the vertical profiles. Comparison of EDR derived from the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) mesoscale model with the in situ lidar estimates show good agreement during the daytime convective boundary layer, but the WRF simulations tend to overestimate EDR during the nighttime. The EDR estimates from a sonic anemometer located at 7.3 meters above ground level are approximately one order of magnitude greater than both the WRF and lidar estimates - which are from greater heights - during the daytime convective boundary layer and substantially greater during the nighttime stable boundary layer. The consistency of the EDR estimates from different methods suggests a reasonable ability to predict the temporal evolution of a spatially averaged vertical profile of EDR in an airport terminal area using a mesoscale model during the daytime convective boundary layer. In the stable nighttime boundary layer, there may be added value to EDR estimates provided by in situ lidar measurements.

Pruis, Matthew J.↗

Sensor Selection for Aircraft Engine Performance Estimation and Gas Path Fault Diagnostics

This paper presents analytical techniques for aiding system designers in making aircraft engine health management sensor selection decisions. The presented techniques, which are based on linear estimation and probability theory, are tailored for gas turbine engine performance estimation and gas path fault diagnostics applications. They enable quantification of the performance estimation and diagnostic accuracy offered by different candidate sensor suites. For performance estimation, sensor selection metrics are presented for two types of estimators including a Kalman filter and a maximum a posteriori estimator. For each type of performance estimator, sensor selection is based on minimizing the theoretical sum of squared estimation errors in health parameters representing performance deterioration in the major rotating modules of the engine. For gas path fault diagnostics, the sensor selection metric is set up to maximize correct classification rate for a diagnostic strategy that performs fault classification by identifying the fault type that most closely matches the observed measurement signature in a weighted least squares sense. Results from the application of the sensor selection metrics to a linear engine model are presented and discussed. Given a baseline sensor suite and a candidate list of optional sensors, an exhaustive search is performed to determine the optimal sensor suites for performance estimation and fault diagnostics. For any given sensor suite, Monte Carlo simulation results are found to exhibit good agreement with theoretical predictions of estimation and diagnostic accuracies.

Gas Turbine Engines↗

Sensor Selection for Aircraft Engine Performance Estimation and Gas Path Fault Diagnostics

This paper presents analytical techniques for aiding system designers in making aircraft engine health management sensor selection decisions. The presented techniques, which are based on linear estimation and probability theory, are tailored for gas turbine engine performance estimation and gas path fault diagnostics applications. They enable quantification of the performance estimation and diagnostic accuracy offered by different candidate sensor suites. For performance estimation, sensor selection metrics are presented for two types of estimators including a Kalman filter and a maximum a posteriori estimator. For each type of performance estimator, sensor selection is based on minimizing the theoretical sum of squared estimation errors in health parameters representing performance deterioration in the major rotating modules of the engine. For gas path fault diagnostics, the sensor selection metric is set up to maximize correct classification rate for a diagnostic strategy that performs fault classification by identifying the fault type that most closely matches the observed measurement signature in a weighted least squares sense. Results from the application of the sensor selection metrics to a linear engine model are presented and discussed. Given a baseline sensor suite and a candidate list of optional sensors, an exhaustive search is performed to determine the optimal sensor suites for performance estimation and fault diagnostics. For any given sensor suite, Monte Carlo simulation results are found to exhibit good agreement with theoretical predictions of estimation and diagnostic accuracies.

Gas Turbine Engines↗

Sensor Selection for Aircraft Engine Performance Estimation and Gas Path Fault Diagnostics

This paper presents analytical techniques for aiding system designers in making aircraft engine health management sensor selection decisions. The presented techniques, which are based on linear estimation and probability theory, are tailored for gas turbine engine performance estimation and gas path fault diagnostics applications. They enable quantification of the performance estimation and diagnostic accuracy offered by different candidate sensor suites. For performance estimation, sensor selection metrics are presented for two types of estimators including a Kalman filter and a maximum a posteriori estimator. For each type of performance estimator, sensor selection is based on minimizing the theoretical sum of squared estimation errors in health parameters representing performance deterioration in the major rotating modules of the engine. For gas path fault diagnostics, the sensor selection metric is set up to maximize correct classification rate for a diagnostic strategy that performs fault classification by identifying the fault type that most closely matches the observed measurement signature in a weighted least squares sense. Results from the application of the sensor selection metrics to a linear engine model are presented and discussed. Given a baseline sensor suite and a candidate list of optional sensors, an exhaustive search is performed to determine the optimal sensor suites for performance estimation and fault diagnostics. For any given sensor suite, Monte Carlo simulation results are found to exhibit good agreement with theoretical predictions of estimation and diagnostic accuracies.

Diagnosis↗

Assessing the Impact of Vertical Land Motion on Twentieth Century Global Mean Sea Level Estimates

Near-global and continuous measurements from satellite altimetry have provided accurate estimates of global mean sea level in the past two decades. Extending these estimates further into the past is a challenge using the historical tide gauge records. Not only is sampling nonuniform in both space and time, but tide gauges are also affected by vertical land motion (VLM) that creates a relative sea level change not representative of ocean variability. To allow for comparisons to the satellite altimetry estimated global mean sea level (GMSL), typically the tide gauges are corrected using glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) models. This approach, however, does not correct other sources of VLM that remain in the tide gauge record. Here we compare Global Positioning System (GPS) VLM estimates at the tide gauge locations to VLM estimates from GIA models, and assess the influence of non-GIA-related VLM on GMSL estimates. We find that the tide gauges, on average, are experiencing positive VLM (i.e., uplift) after removing the known effect of GIA, resulting in an increase of 0.2460.08 mm yr21 in GMSL trend estimates from 1900 to present when using GPS-based corrections. While this result is likely dependent on the subset of tide gauges used and the actual corrections used, it does suggest that non-GIA VLM plays a significant role in twentieth century estimates of GMSL. Given the relatively short GPS records used to obtain these VLM estimates, we also estimate the uncertainty in the GMSL trend that results from limited knowledge of non-GIA-related VLM.

Hamlington, B. D.↗

Regional Rates of Young US Forest Growth Estimated From Annual Landsat Disturbance History and IKONOS Stereo Imagery

Forests of the Contiguous United States (CONUS) have been found to be a large contributor to the global atmospheric carbon sink. The magnitude and nature of this sink is still uncertain and recent studies have sought to define the dynamics that control its strength and longevity. The Landsat series of satellites has been a vital resource to understand the long-term changes in land cover that can impact ecosystem function and terrestrial carbonstock. We combine annual Landsat forest disturbance history from 1985 to 2011 with single date IKONOS stereoimagery to estimate the change in young forest canopy height and above ground live dry biomass accumulation for selected sites in the CONUS. Our approach follows an approximately linear growth rate following clearing over short intervals and does not estimate the distinct non-linear growth rate over longer intervals.We produced canopy height models by differencing digital surface models estimated from IKONOS stereo pairs with national elevation data (NED). Correlations between height and biomass were established independently using airborne LiDAR, and then applied to the IKONOS-estimated canopy height models. Graphing current biomass against time since disturbance provided biomass accumulation rates. For 20 study sites distributed across five regions of the CONUS, 19 showed statistically significant recovery trends (p is less than 0.001) with canopy growth from 0.26 m yr-1to 0.73 m yr-1. Above ground live dry biomass (AGB) density accumulation ranged from 1.31 t/ha yr-1 to 12.47 t/ha yr-1. Mean forest AGB accumulationwas 6.31 t/ha yr-1 among all sites with significant growth trends. We evaluated the accuracy of our estimates by comparing to field estimated site index curves of growth, airborne LiDAR data, and independent model predictions of C accumulation. Growth estimates found with this approach are consistent with site index curves and total biomass estimates fall within the range of field estimates. This is aviable approach to estimate forest biomass accumulation in regions with clear-cut harvest disturbances.

Neigh, Christopher S. R.↗

Southern California Megacity CO2, CH4, and CO Flux Estimates Using Ground- and Space-Based Remote Sensing and a Lagrangian Model

We estimate the overall CO2, CH4, and CO flux from the South Coast Air Basin using an inversion that couples Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON) and Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) observations, with the Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model and the Open-source Data Inventory for Anthropogenic CO2 (ODIAC). Using TCCON data we estimate the direct net CO2 flux from the So-CAB to be 104±26 Tg CO2 yr(exp -1) for the study period of July 2013–August 2016. We obtain a slightly higher estimate of 120±30 Tg CO2 yr(exp -1) using OCO-2 data. These CO2 emission estimates are on the low end of previous work. Our net CH4 (360±90 Gg CH4 y(exp -1)) flux estimate is in agreement with central values from previous top-down studies going back to 2010 (342–440 Gg CH4 yr(exp -1)). CO emissions are estimated at 487±122 Gg CO yr(exp -1), much lower than previous top-down estimates (1440 Gg CO yr(exp -1)). Given the decreasing emissions of CO, this finding is not unexpected. We perform sensitivity tests to estimate how much errors in the prior, errors in the covariance, different inversion schemes, or a coarser dynamical model influence the emission estimates. Overall, the uncertainty is estimated to be 25%, with the largest contribution from the dynamical model. Lessons learned here may help in future inversions of satellite data over urban areas.

Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON)↗