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At least 127 records · Page 7

ESD Reviews: Climate Feedbacks in the Earth System and Prospects for Their Evaluation

Earth system models (ESMs) are key tools for providing climate projections under different scenarios of human-induced forcing. ESMs include a large number of additional processes and feedbacks such as biogeochemical cycles that traditional physical climate models do not consider. Yet, some processes such as cloud dynamics and ecosystem functional response still have fairly high uncertainties. In this article, we present an overview of climate feedbacks for Earth system components currently included in state-of-the-art ESMs and discuss the challenges to evaluate and quantify them. Uncertainties in feedback quantification arise from the interdependencies of biogeochemical matter fluxes and physical properties, the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of processes, and the lack of long-term continuous observational data to constrain them. We present an outlook for promising approaches that can help to quantify and to constrain the large number of feedbacks in ESMs in the future. The target group for this article includes generalists with a background in natural sciences and an interest in climate change as well as experts working in interdisciplinary climate research (researchers, lecturers, and students). This study updates and significantly expands upon the last comprehensive overview of climate feedbacks in ESMs, which was produced 15 years ago (NRC, 2003).

Climate feedbacks↗

Quantitative validation of Ames IR intensity and new line lists for (32/33/34)S(16)O2, (32)S(18)O2 and (16)O(32)S(18)O

The quality of Ames-296K SO2 Infrared (IR) line list intensities is first validated by quantitative exploration of several dipole moment surfaces (DMSs) and partition sum convergence. The DMSs are computed with several of Dunning’s correlation-consistent basis sets and their vibrational dependence are compared to the empirical model derived from Stark effect experiments reported by D. Patel, D. Margolese, and T.R. Dykea [J.Chem.Phys. 70, 2740 (1979)]. The effective dipole deviations from the DMS adopted in the Ames IR lists is 0.2-0.4% for vibrational states up to 3v3. The vibrational dependence of the dipole moment is also in good agreement, except for nv1. Partition sum convergence at 296K is confirmed by new calculations with rotational quantum number J up to 150 and upper state E’ up to 8000 cm-1. The isotopologue consistency of the Ames IR line lists is superior relative to the regular Effective Hamiltonian (EH) models and Effective Dipole Moment (EDM) models. The v1+v2 and v2+v3 intensity consistency check reveals the recently reported experimental intensities need significant improvement or re-analysis. After the accuracy, convergence, and isotopologue consistency have been confirmed, the theoretical Ames-296K intensities are combined with the experimental line positions or EH models that experimental spectroscopists published after 2009. Three high-resolution IR line sets are reported for the (32/33/34)S(16)O2, (32)S(18)O2 and (16)O(32)S(18)O isotopologues: (1) the “New Lines Sets” include experimentally measured line positions; (2) the “Expanded Line Sets” include possible transitions among new rovibrational levels assigned in experiments and ground state (GS) levels predicted by reliable EH models; (3) the “Ames + MARVEL Sets” include possible transitions among all those levels reported in a recent MARVEL analysis. [Tóbiás et al, JQSRT 208, 152 (2018)]. Compared to the limited data in High-resolution TRANsmission molecular absorption database (HITRAN), these line sets have significantly improved the data coverage up to 4000 cm-1. Some missing bands can be traced to the unpublished experimental data. The isotopologue consistency of these line sets will help identify the uncertainties and defects in the experimental EH and EDM models. These line sets are good candidates for the next HITRAN update, if line shape parameters are available. The line sets can be downloaded from supplementary files or from the Ames Molecular Spectroscopic Database at http://huang.seti.org.

Xinchuan Huang↗

Characterization of LANDSAT Panels Using the NIST BRDF Scale from 1100 nm to 2500 nm

Many earth observing sensors depend on white diffuse reflectance standards to derive scales of radiance traceable to the St Despite the large number of Earth observing sensors that operate in the reflective solar region of the spectrum, there has been no direct method to provide NIST traceable BRDF measurements out to 2500 rim. Recent developments in detector technology have allowed the NIST reflectance measurement facility to expand the operating range to cover the 250 nm to 2500 nm range. The facility has been modified with and additional detector using a cooled extended range indium gallium arsenide (Extended InGaAs) detector. Measurements were made for two PTFE white diffuse reflectance standards over the 1100 nm to 2500 nm region at a 0' incident and 45' observation angle. These two panels will be used to support the OLI calibration activities. An independent means of verification was established using a NIST radiance transfer facility based on spectral irradiance, radiance standards and a diffuse reflectance plaque. An analysis on the results and associated uncertainties will be discussed.

Markham, Brian↗

Replication of Segments of STS-94 as a Lunar Surface Mission

The Artemis program established the goal to land the first woman and first person of color on the Moon, but that is only the beginning of the program. Artemis plans to move towards a sustainable phase, with four crew living on the lunar surface for roughly 30-day annual missions, operating from a Pressurized Rover (PR) and a Surface Habitat (SH). The crew will split up – two living and operating from the PR and the others in the SH, perhaps swapping places halfway through the surface mission. There is a significant degree of maturity surrounding PR operations due to the NASA Desert Research and Technology Studies field tests from 2007-2011. However, there is a degree of uncertainty surrounding activity in the SH, with anecdotal speculation among some Artemis lunar surface engineers that the SH crew might not be fully utilized. Contrary to this belief, there is evidence in US human spaceflight history that the SH crew may instead be extremely busy. In particular, portions of the STS-94 Microgravity Science Lab mission demonstrate a science-based use case for crew activity in the SH. Fifteen Spacelab missions (not including STS-83, which was terminated early due to a fuel cell problem and reflown as STS-94) and eight Spacehab missions used the previously mentioned modules as science labs to expand the science capability of shuttle orbital missions, most flown prior to the assembly of the International Space Station. STS-94 is selected as an example of these flights. STS-94 was a 15.7-day mission with a 7-person crew. The crew operated in split 12-hour shifts, enabling 24-hour science operations. STS-94 used the space shuttle Columbia with the Spacelab module and Extended Duration Orbiter pallet in the cargo bay. The STS-94 physical science investigations were intended to explore various physical aspects of microgravity. These same investigations can be conducted on the Moon to explore 1/6 gravity. The Spacelab module was outfitted with several key facilities to enable this research: Large Isothermal Furnace, Combustion Module-1, Droplet Combustion Experiment, EXPRESS Rack, TEMPUS, Gravity Measurement Devices, and Middeck Glovebox. The current reference concept for the SH is a hybrid inflatable in a vertical orientation. Fairly typical of hybrid inflatables, the SH has an aluminum core pressurized section and a larger inflatable volume, in this case attaching to the top of the core. Two crew will live in the SH at a time, though four can briefly occupy the habitat, such as for contingency or handover activities. This paper will discuss use of the STS-94 physical science equipment in the SH and options for the architectural layout of a resulting physics laboratory. It will also discuss how this laboratory may accompany other science facilities such as biology, human research, and geology. The person hours used by the STS-94 crew to conduct physical science research will be estimated and then mapped to a two-person SH crew, making it possible to determine how many days are required in the SH to complete the lunar gravity physical science investigations at varying levels of crew availability.

STS-94↗

Control Oriented Modeling and Validation of Aeroservoelastic Systems

Lightweight aircraft design emphasizes the reduction of structural weight to maximize aircraft efficiency and agility at the cost of increasing the likelihood of structural dynamic instabilities. To ensure flight safety, extensive flight testing and active structural servo control strategies are required to explore and expand the boundary of the flight envelope. Aeroservoelastic (ASE) models can provide online flight monitoring of dynamic instabilities to reduce flight time testing and increase flight safety. The success of ASE models is determined by the ability to take into account varying flight conditions and the possibility to perform flight monitoring under the presence of active structural servo control strategies. In this continued study, these aspects are addressed by developing specific methodologies and algorithms for control relevant robust identification and model validation of aeroservoelastic structures. The closed-loop model robust identification and model validation are based on a fractional model approach where the model uncertainties are characterized in a closed-loop relevant way.

Crowder, Marianne↗

A Cost and Benefit Analysis of Orbital Debris Remediation, Mitigation,Tracking, and Characterization

Orbital debris may collide with crewed and robotic spacecraft, placing them at risk. The wide range of debris, from 9,000-kilogram rocket bodies to millions of millimeter-size debris, has led to a similarly wide range of proposed actions for addressing the risks posed by debris. However, the costs and benefits of these actions have historically been unknown. This is a challenge for decision makers who are choosing which actions to support through technology development or policy changes. NASA’s Office of Technology, Policy, and Strategy is addressing these technical and economic uncertainties by building a capability to (1) complete rigorous calculations of the net present value of each action, (2) identify an optimal portfolio of actions to reduce risk, and (3) quantitatively analyze policies related to space sustainability. This report describes our progress toward that capability and to solicit feedback from the space and economic communities. Our previous work(Colvin, Karcz, and Wusk. 2023), referred to here as Phase 1, assessed the costs and benefits of performing debris remediation on operationally relevant timescales. The current paper summarizes the work of Locke and Colvin (2024), which contains major updates to the risk model used in Phase 1 and expands the breadth of actions considered to include mitigating the creation of debris, improving the ability to track debris, and more methods for cleaning up existing debris. We demonstrate that our approach of measuring risks in dollars allows for the effectiveness of seemingly incommensurate actions to be compared and generates insights that other approaches to measuring risk have missed.

Orbital Debris↗

One Year of Rayleigh Lidar Measurements at Toronto

The Rayleigh lidar technique is being used at York University to study middle atmospheric thermal structure with particular emphasis on the properties and influence of internal gravity waves. These measurements are now carried out on a routine basis (every clear night) in order to determine seasonal variability and, eventually, long term trends. The transmitter consists of a doubled Nd:YAG laser with an output of 0.4 Joules per pulse at 20Hz (8 Watts) which is expanded to obtain a divergence of 0.4 milliradians. Backscattered photons are collected by a half meter cassegrain telescope, filtered to a bandwidth of 1nm, detected by a PMT, and counted with a multi-channel scaling averager. Strong backscatter from lower altitudes is blocked using a rotating chopper (25000rpm) which triggers the laser. The range gate and hardware averaging interval are variable but typically 300m and 5 minutes. Relative density profiles are obtained by simply normalizing to a model (eg. CIRA) at some altitude. Absolute temperature is derived using the hydrostatic equation, ideal gas law, and a model pressure value at the altitude where the photocount statistical uncertainty is about 15 percent - typically 90km for the entire night's average. The lower limit is currently about 30-35km due the presence aerosol from the volcanic eruption of Mt. Pinatubo.

Whiteway, James A.↗

Karhunen-Loeve Estimation of the Power Spectrum Parameters from the Angular Distribution of Galaxies in Early Sloan Digital Sky Survey Data

We present measurements of parameters of the three-dimensional power spectrum of galaxy clustering from 222 square degrees of early imaging data in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS). The projected galaxy distribution on the sky is expanded over a set of Karhunen-Loeve (KL) eigenfunctions, which optimize the signal-to-noise ratio in our analysis. A maximum likelihood analysis is used to estimate parameters that set the shape and amplitude of the three-dimensional power spectrum of galaxies in the SDSS magnitude-limited sample with r* less than 21. Our best estimates are gamma = 0.188 +/- 0.04 and sigma(sub 8L) = 0.915 +/- 0.06 (statistical errors only), for a flat universe with a cosmological constant. We demonstrate that our measurements contain signal from scales at or beyond the peak of the three-dimensional power spectrum. We discuss how the results scale with systematic uncertainties, like the radial selection function. We find that the central values satisfy the analytically estimated scaling relation. We have also explored the effects of evolutionary corrections, various truncations of the KL basis, seeing, sample size, and limiting magnitude. We find that the impact of most of these uncertainties stay within the 2 sigma uncertainties of our fiducial result.

Szalay, Alexander S.↗

Multivariable frequency weighted model order reduction for control synthesis

Quantitative criteria are presented for model simplification, or order reduction, such that the reduced order model may be used to synthesize and evaluate a control law, and the stability robustness obtained using the reduced order model will be preserved when controlling the full-order system. The error introduced due to model simplification is treated as modeling uncertainty, and some of the results from multivariate robustness theory are brought to bear on the model simplification problem. A numerical procedure developed previously is shown to lead to results that meet the necessary criteria. The procedure is applied to reduce the model of a flexible aircraft. Also, the importance of the control law itself, in meeting the modeling criteria, is underscored. An example is included that demonstrates that an apparently robust control law actually amplifies modest modeling errors in the critical frequency region, and leads to undesirable results. The cause of this problem is associated with the canceling of lightly damped transmission zeroes in the plant. An attempt is made to expand on some of the earlier results and to further clarify the theoretical basis behind the proposed methodology.

Schmidt, David K.↗

Disturbance Dynamics in Transitional and Turbulent Flows

In order to expand the predictive capability of single-point turbulence closure models to account for the early-stage transition regime, a methodology for the formulation and calibration of model equations for the ensemble-averaged disturbance kinetic energy and energy dissipation rate is presented. First the decay of laminar disturbances and turbulence in mean shear-free flows is studied. In laminar flows, such disturbances are linear superpositions of modes governed by the Orr-Sommerfeld equation. In turbulent flows, disturbances are described through transport equations for representative mean quantities. The link between a description based on a deterministic evolution equation and a probability based mean transport equation is established. Because an uncertainty in initial conditions exists in the laminar as well as the turbulent regime, a probability distribution must be defined even in the laminar case. Using this probability distribution, it is shown that the exponential decay of the linear modes in the laminar regime can be related to a power law decay of both the (ensemble) mean disturbance kinetic energy and the dissipation rate. The evolution of these mean disturbance quantities is then described by transport equations similar to those for the corresponding turbulent decaying flow. Second, homogeneous shear flow, where disturbances can be described by rapid distortion theory (RDT), is studied. The relationship between RDT and linear stability theory is exploited in order to obtain a closed set of modeled equations. The linear disturbance equations are solved directly so that the numerical simulation yields a database from which the closure coefficients in the ensemble-averaged disturbance equations can be determined.

Grosch, Chester E.↗

Expanded Signal to Noise Ratio Estimates for Validating Next-Generation Satellite Sensors in Oceanic, Coastal, and Inland Waters

The launch of the NASA Plankton, Aerosol, Cloud, ocean Ecosystem (PACE) and the Surface Biology and Geology (SBG) satellite sensors will provide increased spectral resolution compared to existing platforms. These new sensors will require robust calibration and validation datasets, but existing field-based instrumentation is limited in its availability and potential for geographic coverage, particularly for coastal and inland waters, where optical complexity is substantially greater than in the open ocean. The minimum signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) is an important metric for assessing the reliability of derived biogeochemical products and their subsequent use as proxies, such as for biomass, in aquatic systems. The SNR can provide insight into whether legacy sensors can be used for algorithm development as well as calibration and validation activities for next-generation platforms. We extend our previous evaluation of SNR and associated uncertainties for representative coastal and inland targets to include the imaging sensors PRISM and AVIRIS-NG, the airborne-deployed C-AIR radiometers, and the shipboard HydroRad and HyperSAS radiometers, which were not included in the original analysis. Nearly all the assessed hyperspectral sensors fail to meet proposed criteria for SNR or uncertainty in remote sensing reflectance (R rs ) for some part of the spectrum, with the most common failures (>20% uncertainty) below 400 nm, but all the sensors were below the proposed 17.5% uncertainty for derived chlorophyll-a. Instrument suites for both in-water and airborne platforms that are capable of exceeding all the proposed thresholds for SNR and R rs uncertainty are commercially available. Thus, there is a straightforward path to obtaining calibration and validation data for current and next-generation sensors, but the availability of suitable high spectral resolution sensors is limited.

signal-to-noise ratio↗

The High Density Vertiplex Advanced Onboard Automation Overview

While many studies have been performed examining Urban Air Mobility (UAM) operations from UAM Maturity Level (UML) UML-1 to UML-4, [1, 2] some uncertainty exists regarding the integration and role of onboard autonomous systems, airspace management systems, ground control and fleet management systems, and how they integrate with vertiport automation systems to ensure safe high-density future operations. One thrust of the Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) High Density Vertiplex (HDV) sub-project is to perform rapid prototyping and assessment of an Urban Air Mobility (UAM) Ecosystem within the terminal operational area to help inform future research investments and technology development. Another thrust within HDV is to perform integration, testing, and safety risk assessments required to acquire operational credit for several NASA small Unmanned Aerial Systems (sUAS) beyond visual line of sight (BVLOS) enabling technologies to expand test capabilities and to expedite technology transfer and ultimate effective usage. Both thrusts leverage sUAS to serve as surrogates for the highly-technologically-similar envisioned UAM aircraft as well as to provide significant contributions to sUAS Part-135 operators. This report provides an overview of the activities accomplished within the Advanced Onboard Automation (AOA) schedule work package of HDV.

Human Factors, Simulation↗

Lidar-Polarimeter Retrieval OSSEs using a Nature Run in Support of NASA's Aerosols, Clouds, Convection and Precipitation (ACCP) Study

The 2017 Decadal Survey (DS) highlighted Earth System Science themes, science and application questions, and several high priority objectives that have led to the inclusion of Aerosols (A) and Clouds-Convection-Precipitation (CCP) as Designated Observables (DOs). On June 1, 2018, several NASA centers (GSFC, LaRC, JPL, MSFC, GRC and ARC) submitted a joint Study Plan to the NASA Earth Science Division for the Aerosol (A) and Cloud, Convection, and Precipitation (CCP) Pre-formulation Study (ACCP). The DS and the ACCP team recognized the science merit in combining the A and CCP DOs for both enhancing the ability to address a number of science objectives and also to provide an expanded capability to address additional objectives beyond those addressed by individual DOs. A critical element of the ACCP observing strategy is to make extensive use of new passive and active sensors as well as of the so-called Program-of-Record (PoR), complemented by a fully integrated sub-orbital component. Central to this observing system design is the adoption of a Value Framework in which quantitative assessment of the science benefits of space- and air-borne assets is a key element. Given pre-defined ACCP science objectives and geophysical variables with desired accuracies, ACCP relies on a spectrum of Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) aimed at addressing pixel level retrieval uncertainties and sampling trade-offs. In this talk we will discuss a subset of Retrieval OSSEs being considered for ACCP, namely, synergistic lidar-polarimeter retrievals based on observation simulations from the GEOS-5 Nature Run (G5NR). Starting with aerosol states from the GEOS-5 Nature Run (G5NR) sampled along specific satellite orbits, we simulate polarized radiances at the desired polarimeter wavelengths with the Vector Linearized Direct Ordinate Radiative Transfer (VLIDORT) model, alongside the lidar signal for the relevant lidars with realistic error characterization. Next, inversions are performed with the Generalized Retrieval of Aerosol and Surface Properties (GRASP) system and the accuracy of the retrieved geophysical variables are assessed. In this presentation we will highlight results for key architectures being considered for ACCP with emphasis on geophysical variables of particular relevance to ACCP’s aerosol science objectives.

A Da Silva↗

NASA GPM GV Science Requirements

An important scientific objective of the NASA portion of the GPM Mission is to generate quantitatively-based error characterization information along with the rainrate retrievals emanating from the GPM constellation of satellites. These data must serve four main purposes: (1) they must be of sufficient quality, uniformity, and timeliness to govern the observation weighting schemes used in the data assimilation modules of numerical weather prediction models; (2) they must extend over that portion of the globe accessible by the GPM core satellite to which the NASA GV program is focused - (approx.65 degree inclination); (3) they must have sufficient specificity to enable detection of physically-formulated microphysical and meteorological weaknesses in the standard physical level 2 rainrate algorithms to be used in the GPM Precipitation Processing System (PPS), i.e., algorithms which will have evolved from the TRMM standard physical level 2 algorithms; and (4) they must support the use of physical error modeling as a primary validation tool and as the eventual replacement of the conventional GV approach of statistically intercomparing surface rainrates fiom ground and satellite measurements. This approach to ground validation research represents a paradigm shift vis-&-vis the program developed for the TRMM mission, which conducted ground validation largely as a statistical intercomparison process between raingauge-derived or radar-derived rainrates and the TRMM satellite rainrate retrievals -- long after the original satellite retrievals were archived. This approach has been able to quantify averaged rainrate differences between the satellite algorithms and the ground instruments, but has not been able to explain causes of algorithm failures or produce error information directly compatible with the cost functions of data assimilation schemes. These schemes require periodic and near-realtime bias uncertainty (i.e., global space-time distributed conditional accuracy of the retrieved rainrates) and local error covariance structure (i.e., global space-time distributed error correlation information for the local 4-dimensional space-time domain -- or in simpler terms, the matrix form of precision error). This can only be accomplished by establishing a network of high quality-heavily instrumented supersites selectively distributed at a few oceanic, continental, and coastal sites. Economics and pragmatics dictate that the network must be made up of a relatively small number of sites (6-8) created through international cooperation. This presentation will address some of the details of the methodology behind the error characterization approach, some proposed solutions for expanding site-developed error properties to regional scales, a data processing and communications concept that would enable rapid implementation of algorithm improvement by the algorithm developers, and the likely available options for developing the supersite network.

Smith, E.↗

Real-Time Monitoring and Prediction of Airspace Safety

The U.S. National Airspace System (NAS) has reached an extremely high level of safety in recent years. However, it will only become more difficult to maintain the current level of safety with the forecasted increase in operations, and so the FAA has been making revolutionary changes to the NAS to both expand capacity and ensure safety. Our work complements these efforts by developing a novel model-based framework for real-time monitoring and prediction of the safety of the NAS. Our framework is divided into two parts: (offline) safety analysis and modeling part, and a real-time (online) monitoring and prediction of safety. The goal of the safety analysis task is to identify hazards to flight (distilled from several national databases) and to codify these hazards within our framework such that we can monitor and predict them. From these we define safety metrics that can be monitored and predicted using dynamic models of airspace operations, aircraft, and weather, along with a rigorous, mathematical treatment of uncertainty. We demonstrate our overall approach and highlight the advantages of this approach over the current state-of-the-art through simulated scenarios.

safety metrics↗

Version 2 Ozone Monitoring Instrument SO2 Product (OMSO2 V2): New Anthropogenic SO2 Vertical Column Density Dataset

The Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) has been providing global observations of SO2 pollution since 2004. Here we introduce the new anthropogenic SO2 vertical column density (VCD) dataset in the version 2 OMI SO2 product (OMSO2 V2). As with the previous version (OMSO2 V1.3), the new dataset is generated with an algorithm based on principal component analysis of OMI radiances, but features several updates. The most important among those is the use of expanded lookup tables and model a priori profiles to estimate SO2 Jacobians for individual OMI pixels, in order to better characterize pixel-to-pixel variations in SO2 sensitivity, including over snow and ice. Additionally, new data screening and spectral fitting schemes have been implemented to improve the quality of the spectral fit. As compared with the planetary boundary layer SO2 dataset in OMSO2 V1.3, the new dataset has substantially better data quality, especially over areas that are relatively clean or affected by the south Atlantic anomaly. The updated retrievals over snow/ice yield more realistic seasonal changes in SO2 at high latitudes and offer enhanced sensitivity to sources during wintertime. An error analysis has been conducted to assess uncertainties in SO2 VCDs from both the spectral fit and Jacobian calculations. The uncertainties from spectral fitting are reflected in SO2 slant column densities (SCDs) and largely depend on the signal-to-noise ratio of the measured radiances, as implied by the generally smaller SCD uncertainties over clouds or for smaller solar zenith angles. The SCD uncertainties for individual pixels are estimated to be~0.15-0.3 DU (Dobson Units) between ~40°S and ~40°N and to be~0.2-0.5 DU at higher latitudes. The uncertainties from the Jacobians are approximately ~50-100% over polluted areas, and primarily attributed to errors in SO2 a priori profiles and cloud pressures, as well as the lack of explicit treatment for aerosols. Finally, the daily mean and median SCDs over the presumably SO2-free equatorial East Pacific have increased by only~0.0035 DU and ~0.003 DU respectively over the entire 15-year OMI record; while the standard deviation of SCDs has grown by only~0.02 DU or ~10%. Such remarkable long-term stability makes the new dataset particularly suitable for detecting regional changes in SO2 pollution.

OMI, SO2, Remote Sensing↗

NASA Self-Assessment of Space Radiation Research

Space exploration involves unavoidable exposures to high-energy galactic cosmic rays whose penetration power and associated secondary radiation makes radiation shielding ineffective and cost prohibitive. NASA recognizing the possible health dangers from cosmic rays notified the U.S. Congress as early as 1959 of the need for a dedicated heavy ion accelerator to study the largely unknown biological effects of galactic cosmic rays on astronauts. Information and scientific tools to study radiation health effects expanded over the new decades as NASA exploration programs to the moon and preparations for Mars exploration were carried out. In the 1970 s through the early 1990 s a more than 3-fold increase over earlier estimates of fatal cancer risks from gamma-rays, and new knowledge of the biological dangers of high LET radiation were obtained. Other research has increased concern for degenerative risks to the central nervous system and other tissues at lower doses compared to earlier estimates. In 1996 a review by the National Academy of Sciences Space Science Board re-iterated the need for a dedicated ground-based accelerator facility capable of providing up to 2000 research hours per year to reduce uncertainties in risks projections and develop effective mitigation measures. In 1998 NASA appropriated funds for construction of a dedicated research facility and the NASA Space Radiation Laboratory (NSRL) opened for research in October of 2003. This year marks the 8th year of NSRL research were about 1000 research hours per year have been utilized. In anticipation of the approaching ten year milestone, funded investigators and selected others are invited to participate in a critical self-assessment of NSRL research progress towards NASA s goals in space radiation research. A Blue and Red Team Assessment format has been integrated into meeting posters and special plenary sessions to allow for a critical debate on the progress of the research and major gaps areas. Blue teams will highlight progress and important new knowledge gained. Red teams will challenge the Blue teams on proposed highlights and point to Gaps not considered. We will review the current space radiation Risks and Gaps under investigation at NASA, critical data sets and research highlights anticipated, and possible goals for future research at NSRL.

Cucinotta, Francis A.↗

Lidar-Polarimeter Retrieval OSSEs in Support of NASA's Aerosols and Clouds-Convection-Precipitation (ACCP) Study

The 2017 Decadal Survey (DS) highlighted Earth System Science themes, science and application questions, and several high priority objectives that have led to the inclusion of Aerosols (A) and Clouds-Convection-Precipitation (CCP) as Designated Observables (DOs). On June 1, 2018, several NASA centers (GSFC, LaRC, JPL, MSFC, GRC and ARC) submitted a joint Study Plan to the NASA Earth Science Division for the Aerosol (A) and Cloud, Convection, and Precipitation (CCP) Pre-formulation Study (A-CCP). The DS and the A-CCP team recognized the science merit in combining the A and CCP DOs for both enhancing the ability to address a number of science objectives and also to provide an expanded capability to address additional objectives beyond those addressed by individual DOs.A critical element of the A-CCP observing strategy is to make extensive use of new passive and active sensors as well as of the so-called Program-of-Record (PoR), complemented by a fully integrated sub-orbital component. Central to this observing system design is the adoption of a Value Framework in which quantitative assessment of the science benefits of space-and air-borne assets is a key element. Given pre-defined A-CCP science objectives and geophysical variables with desired accuracies, A-CCP relies on a spectrum of Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) aimed at addressing pixel level retrieval uncertainties and sampling trade-offs. In this talk we will discuss a subset of Retrieval OSSEs being considered for A-CCP, namely, synergistic lidar-polarimeter retrievals of particular relevance for the A-CCP aerosol science objectives. Starting with aerosol states from the GEOS-5 Nature Run (G5NR) sampled along specific satellite orbits, we simulate polarized radiances at the desired polarimeter wavelengths with the Vector Linearized Direct Ordinate Radiative Transfer (VLIDORT) model, alongside the lidar signal for the relevant lidars with realistic error characterization. Next, inversions are performed with the Generalized Retrieval of Aerosol and Surface Properties (GRASP) system and the accuracy of the retrieved geophysical variables are assessed. In this presentation we will highlight results for key architectures being considered for A-CCP.

da Silva, Arlindo↗